Oil Rebounds As OPEC+ Confirms Expected Supply Hike

The OPEC+ coalition ratified an oil-production increase that completes the return of supplies halted during the pandemic, while deferring discussions on its next move for another day.

The 23-nation group led by Saudi Arabia rubber-stamped plans to add 648,000 barrels a day in August, restoring the final tranche of the 9.7 million barrels a day that was shuttered just over two years ago

But with most members besides the Saudis and their neighbors unable to raise output, the decision is largely symbolic.

As a reminder, OPEC+ is falling further and further behind its production goals…

Is Macron right and OPEC+ producers are at or near their capacity limits?

“Spare capacity is very low, demand is still recovering,” Shell Plc Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said in Singapore on Wednesday.

“There is a fair chance we will be facing a turbulent period.”

WTI rallied back

Full OPEC+ Statement:

The 30th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via video-conference on 30 June 2022. In view of current oil market fundamentals and the consensus on its outlook, the OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil producing countries agreed to:

1. Reaffirm the decision of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12th April 2020 and further endorsed in subsequent meetings including the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on the 18th July 2021.

2. Reconfirm the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th and 29th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings and the decision to adjust upward the monthly overall production for the month of August 2022 by 0.648 mb/d.

3. Reiterate the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and to the compensation mechanism. Compensation plans should be submitted in accordance with the statement of the 15th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.

4. Hold the 31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 3 August 2022.

So given all that, what will the Saudis and Emiratis do next month when Biden visits to beg for more production?