Month: August 2022

Formula One fans were stunned ahead of Saturday’s qualifying session for the Belgian Grand Prix when a man on a flying device flew at a low altitude over the track at a high rate of speed. 

ESPN F1 tweeted someone just flew over the circuit. The ten-second video shows the man on what appears to be a flyboard traveling very fast above the track, keeping up with a single-seater formula racing car. 

Somebody just flew over Spa 😳

(via @avoidingtmrw)pic.twitter.com/9615hfNUEc

— ESPN F1 (@ESPNF1) August 27, 2022

UK newspaper Daily Express said the man operating the flyboard was French inventor Franky Zapata. He said:

“I’ve done a lot of challenges from zero to 400 metres or with a u-turn. This is an area in which I feel comfortable with the flyboarder. 

“It accelerates very fast and turns very well. On the other hand, over long distances, such as here, with a very huge top speed, I don’t go beyond 200m/h. So it can be complicated. It’s always a pleasure to fly here. I love flying on F1 circuits.The view is amazing. 

“Of course I don’t have much time to admire the view. I have to stay focus on my turns. The flyboarder requires a lot of concentration. But the circuit is magnificent, the scenery is exceptional.”

Other fans at the Belgian GP captured video of Zapata flying above the racetrack. 

Franky Zapata Flyboard’u ile Belçika Grand Prix’de uçtu bundan bir tane de Sedat Peker’e lazım Greece Türkiye arası gidip gelir 😂😂 #BelgianGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/oem2P7QoKI

— YİĞİTnc1907 (@nc_YIGIT1907) August 28, 2022

Franky Zapata Flying Men 😍 @circuitspa #BelgianGP pic.twitter.com/Y0ReknXwLa

— DavidF1🇧🇪 (@davve2010) August 27, 2022

Zapata’s company develops and manufactures flyboards and jetpacks — some are capable of 125 mph and altitudes of nearly 10,000 feet.

The question remains if Zapata’s technology is the same being used in Los Angeles after commercial airline pilots have observed what they believe is a man with a jetpack. It was only June when a pilot approaching Los Angeles International Airport spotted “an object that might have resembled a jetpack.” FAA is still mystified about the numerous sightings and has no explanation. 

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

There is a controversy in the Denver Public School system as students were shown a video telling them not to call police if they see a violently racist or homophobic incident because police are perpetrators of such violence.

What is particularly shocking, however, was the response of the school district to the showing of this insulting and dangerous film.

The district said that nobody at Denver South High School actually watched the video before showing it to the students under their charge.

The video titled “Don’t be a Bystander: 6 Tips for Responding to Racist Attacks,” tells students what to do if they see a racial attack. It states that “in our current political moment, White supremacists and White nationalists have been emboldened, and as a result, public attacks are on the rise.”  It then gives tips on what to do including do “not call the police” because it “escalates, rather than reduces” violence.  It explains “[b]ecause police have been trained to see people of color, gender-nonconforming folks, and Muslims as criminals, they often treat victims as perpetrators of violence. So, if the victim hasn’t asked you to call the police, do not — I repeat, do not — call the police.”

It is a dangerous message for children not only in getting them to view police as threats but not to report racial incidents to the police to allow rapid intervention.

What really stood out, however, was this line in the coverage:

“A district spokesperson told Fox News Digital the video was chosen because of its title and theme, but no one viewed the video before it was shown to students.”

This makes “the dog ate my homework” look perfectly credible. I am not sure which is worse: watching and assigning the video or assigning a video without watching it. Notably, to download the video from YouTube, the school official would have seen this description directly under the video:

Barnard Center for Research on Women

Created by BCRW and members of Project NIA, this video offers an abolitionist approach to bystander intervention that does not rely on the police.

We have all been burned by videos in social media where you think you are sending a funny or relevant video but fail to watch the whole thing to spot foul or offensive content. However, posting a video for school children to see is a bit different from an errant tweet.

It hardly conveys the seriousness of this anti-racism program that the teachers do not even watch the videos being assigned or posted.

The school district offered little beyond a shrug and did not indicate any degree of discipline for the posting of this offensive video.

There is also little response from the Barnard Center for Research on Women which posted the video to YouTube in 2017. It has posted this video for years.  The group’s website displays a series of posts on abolition and “Defund the Police” measures.

In yet another sign that the covid vaccination agenda of globalist institutions did not do quite as well as they had originally hoped, the Rockefeller Foundation has revealed that it (along with other non-profits) has been pumping millions of dollars into a behavioral science project meant to figure out why large groups of people around the world refuse to take the jab.

The “Mercury Project” is a collective of behavioral scientists formed by the Social Science Research Council (SSRC), a non-profit group which receives considerable funding from globalist organizations and governments.  The stated goals of the project are rather non-specific, using ambiguous language and mission statements.  However, the root intentions appear to be focused on using behavioral psychology and mass psychology elements to understand the global resistance to the recent covid compliance efforts.

Mercury groups will be deployed in multiple nations and regions and will study vaccine refusal and the medical “disinformation” that leads to it.  They are operating with the intent to tailor vaccination narratives to fit different ethnic and political backgrounds, looking for the key to the gates of each cultural kingdom and convincing them to take the job.  

The Rockefeller Foundation and the SSRC note:

“Following the characterization of inaccurate health information by the U.S. Surgeon General as an “urgent threat,” and by the World Health Organization as an “infodemic,” the SSRC issued a call for proposals to counter the growing global threats posed by public health mis- and disinformation and low Covid-19 vaccination rates, and received nearly 200 submissions from around the world.

…With Covid-19 prevalent and rapidly evolving everywhere, there is a pressing need to identify interventions with the potential to increase vaccination take-up.”

The SSRC and the Mercury Project are not only receiving funding from foundations, but also government based institutions.  In June of 2022 the Mercury Project received another $20 million from the National Science Foundation, which claims to be an “independent” agency of the United States government.  In other words, fabricating effective covid propaganda is becoming a money train for the small groups of behavioral researchers and psychologists that jump onboard.

The purpose of the NSF partnership with the Mercury Project is outlined on the SSRC website:

“This innovative partnership will support research teams seeking to evaluate online or offline interventions to increase Covid-19 vaccination demand and other positive health behaviors, including by targeting the producers and/or consumers of inaccurate health information and/or by increasing confidence in reliable health information.”

The Mercury Project lists these bullet points as their focus:

“Funded projects will provide evidence about what works–and doesn’t–in specific places and for specific groups to increase Covid-19 vaccination take-up, including what is feasible on the ground and has the potential to be cost-effective at scale. Each of the 12 teams will have access to findings from the other teams while exploring interventions including, but not limited to:

Conducting literacy training for secondary school students in partnership with local authorities to help students identify Covid-19 vaccine misinformation.  

Equipping trusted messengers with communication strategies to increase Covid-19 vaccination demand.

Using social networks to share tailored, community-developed messaging to increase Covid-19 vaccination demand.”

In other words, their focus is propaganda, propaganda and propaganda.  The very basis of the existence of the Mercury Project presupposes that individuals cannot be trusted to make up their own minds about the information they are exposed to, and that they must be molded to accept the mainstream narrative.  It also presupposes that mainstream or establishment information is always trustworthy and unbiased.     

The widespread non-compliance against covid vaccination mandates despite extensive government pressure is perhaps one of the most underappreciated events of the past century.  It is likely the reason why political elites and the corporate media went from a non-stop fear campaign against the public to almost no mention of covid within a matter of weeks.  It was as if the populace was being put through two years of waterboarding and then one day the torture simply stopped without explanation.

If vaccine passport laws had been implemented through western nations on the scale that governments and globalists were demanding, then the last vestiges of personal freedom would now be erased permanently.  All individual rights would become privileges granted by authorities and contingent on your submission to whatever covid booster shots or medical procedures happen to be in vogue at the time.  Think about it:  If they had gotten what they wanted, the west would look exactly like China does right now, or worse, with no economic participation without an up-to-date covid pass.    

And, the threat still lingers.  Why the Mercury Project feels the need to compose vaccine propaganda for a virus with a mere 0.23% median Infection Fatality Rate is not explained.  And, if vaccination numbers from agencies like the CDC are accurate, then the population has already achieved herd immunity anyway (perhaps their numbers are not accurate?).  Why are globalist groups so obsessed with 100% vaccination for covid?  This is never explained.  

They will say it’s all about saving lives, but if only 0.23% of people on average are at risk regardless of whether they are vaccinated or not, then public health is not really a believable explanation.  It would seem that the Mercury Project’s purpose is more about influencing people to vaccinate despite the science rather than in the name of science. 

Authored by Jonathan Turley via jonathanturley.org,

Since the start of the controversy over the Mar-a-Lago raid, I have called for the release of a redacted affidavit and the appointment of a special master to sort through the seized material, including alleged attorney-client privileged material. Indeed, I felt that this was one of the four failures of Attorney General Merrick Garland in not taken proactive steps to assure that public that this was not a pretextual raid to collect sensitive material for other investigative purposes. Now, District Judge Aileen Cannon has indicated an intent to make such an appointment. It was a belated request from the Trump team but, as I wrote yesterday, it would still have considerable value in the case.

Judge Cannon filed an order Saturday morning that “The Court hereby provides notice of its preliminary intent to appoint a special master in this case.”

Such an appointment should have been done before the Justice Department reviewed the material. The Department sought a ridiculously broad search warrant and Magistrate Paul Reinhart simply signed off on the order without considering the wide array of privileged material that could be seized. It adopted language so broad that it was the legal version of Captain Jack Sparrow’s “Take what you can … Give nothing back.” It allowed the seizure of any box containing any document with any classification of any kind — and all boxes stored with that box. It also allowed the seizure of any writing from Trump’s presidency.

However, a special master could still serve the same interests of transparency and legitimacy. The special master could divide these documents in classified material, unclassified but defense information, and unclassified material outside of the scope of the alleged crimes. The last category would then be returned.

That accounting could also offer basic descriptive information on the material without revealing their precise content or titles. The special master could describe material as related to national defense or nuclear weapons (as was previously leaked government sources). The government has already leaked that there was nuclear weapons material being sought. Confirming such general details can be done without giving details on the specific information or even titles for the documents to protect national security. In national security cases, including cases where I have served as counsel, such indexes and summaries are common.

Once again, as with the release of the redacted affidavit, Garland could have taken these steps to assure the public that the Department was not acting for political or improper purposes — or using excessive means to achieve those goals. He has refused every opportunity to do so while chastising those who question the integrity of his Department.

The release of the redacted affidavit shows that what Garland and his Department told the public was untrue about the inability to release a redacted affidavit without endangering the case or national security. As discussed yesterday, the redacted affidavit confirmed various key points on the legal and factual background. After opposing the release of even a single line, the government released whole pages that were manifestly suitable for public disclosure.

Once again, Garland waited to be forced to take this step rather than act on his own to address widespread concerns. His department has a documented history of officials misleading courts and filing false material in Trump-related investigations. This is yet another example of how Attorney General Garland has done little to earn the trust of almost half of the country. In this and other controversies, he has demanded respect but refused to take even modest measures to justify it.

The U.S. and its Western allies have unleashed a barrage of economic sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. A critical element in that strategy is to limit Russian exports of commodities, such as crude oil to diamonds, to cause maximum economic pain in Moscow. Though the strategy has backfired as Russia’s oil revenues soar, the diamond trade is the latest export to be revived near pre-war levels. 

Bloomberg reported that Russian mining giant Alrosa PJSC ramped up its diamond exports to near pre-Ukraine invasion levels. 

Readers may recall the +$80 billion industry diamond industry was thrown into chaos earlier this year when the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) hit Alrosa with sanctions, reducing 30% of the world’s rough stones supplies. 

Alrosa is one of the world’s largest diamond miners, responsible for 90% of Russia’s rough stone output. OFAC’s sanctions on the miner resulted in all of its clients and other counterparties immediately halting transactions in early April. 

By late April, we noted that Russian rough stone supplies had stopped flowing to Surat, India, the mecca of diamond cutting and polishing. We pointed out that traders and manufacturers were searching for workarounds due to OFAC’s sanctions disrupting payments via Indian banks to Alrosa. 

So fast forward to late August, and Alrosa is back, selling more than $250 million of diamonds a month, which is approximately $50 to $100 million below pre-war levels. It appears Indian banks have figured out ways to bypass OFAC’s sanctions and are “more comfortable with how to facilitate transactions in currencies other than U.S. dollars,” Bloomberg said. 

“There is no indication that any sales have breached sanctions or laws. But there is still a widespread unease about the implications of dealing in Russian goods,” Bloomberg noted. 

The return of one of the world’s top diamond producers is another sign that Western sanctions against Russia are failing. Six months after the invasion, Russia’s economy has yet to nosedive and implode, though sanctions entirely backfired on Europe amid energy hyperinflation and mounting recession risks. 

The biggest takeaway is that Russia and the rest of the world are finding workarounds to the Western economic blockade, which shows the era of America’s unipolar world order is nearing its end.  

Authored by Todd Carney via RealClear Florida,

Florida governor Ron DeSantis made headlines for agreeing to campaign for Republican candidates, including some controversial ones whom the Republican establishment has abandoned – Pennsylvania gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, Arizona senatorial nominee Blake Masters, and Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Perhaps DeSantis is campaigning for these candidates to build support for his likely 2024 presidential bid. Even if that’s the case, DeSantis’s campaign efforts could help the Republican Party in 2022 and beyond.

Lake and Mastriano matter because Arizona and Pennsylvania will be swing states in 2024. Much of the 2020 voting disputes occurred in states with Democratic governors. Lake and Mastriano are the only people standing between Democratic control of the governorships of Arizona and Pennsylvania. If Masters wins his Senate race in Arizona, it would be hard to imagine Democrats holding onto control of the chamber. And the 2024 Senate map looks very promising for Republicans.

Only in recent years have major parties run candidates with good chances of winning their races but whom many leaders in the party refuse to support. Donald Trump, on the other hand, has already endorsed Lake, Mastriano, and Masters, and helped them get their nominations. Trump still stands strong in the 2024 Republican presidential primary polls, at 51 percent support, giving him about a 28 percent lead over his nearest competitor, DeSantis.

But Trump’s standing among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents is diminished. If a portion of the 49 percent of Republicans who do not want Trump for president also feel skeptical about candidates like Lake, they will need some more convincing to vote for these Trump-like candidates. This is where DeSantis’s endorsements matter.

While DeSantis and Trump account for the choices of about 75 percent of the GOP electorate, Senator Ted Cruz, former Vice President Mike Pence, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and a few others account for the other 25 percent. Some of these politicians represent radically different wings of the GOP than DeSantis or Trump – so the Trump-like candidates might need some of the other potential 2024 candidates to endorse them more than they need support from DeSantis or Trump.

Many Republicans are feeling confident about 2024, given that President Joe Biden’s reelection chances (if he runs) don’t look particularly good. But win or lose, Biden has two years left in his term, so how Republicans perform in the 2022 midterms will determine how much of his agenda they can block. Moreover, the midterm results could set the stage for a Republican presidential candidacy and administration. In the last few cycles, politicians on both sides have forgotten that. Ron DeSantis has not, and this likely bodes well for his future ambitions.

Todd Carney is a lawyer and frequent contributor to RealClearPolitics. He earned his juris doctorate from Harvard Law School. The views in this piece are his alone and do not reflect the views of his employer.

The US Navy has sent two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, in a significant first sail through since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to Taiwan early this month.

The guided-missile cruisers USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville traversed “through waters where high seas freedoms of navigation and overflight apply in accordance with international law,” according to the US 7th Fleet in Japan.

Calling the transit “ongoing,” the statement emphasized “no interference from foreign military forces so far” – which is a concern given the heavy PLA naval presence in waters off Taiwan this month, also given repeat Chinese breaches of the median line by air and sea.

“These ships (are transiting) through a corridor in the strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal state. The ships’ transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The United States military flies, sails, and operates anywhere international law allows,” the 7th Fleet statement continued.

The Pentagon previewed the sail through pf the strait, announcing over a week ago that the Navy is preparing to do such amid Chinese warnings, but didn’t specify a date.

Eastern Theater Command slammed the “provocation” and said it is actively monitoring the US vessels. 

“Troops of the (Eastern) Theater Command are on high alert and ready to foil any provocation at any time,” a spokesperson for the People Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command said.

Confrontation in air above Taiwan Strait. Sound on. pic.twitter.com/7ApfUyCQc4

— Carl Zha (@CarlZha) August 28, 2022

The White House has accused Beijing of using the early August Pelosi visit to manufacture a crisis. Chinese state media had at the same time expressly stated the PLA drills were a “rehearsal” for forced reunification.

For now, it looks like Congressional delegations to the self-ruled island, in some instances led by some of the most outspoken anti-China hawks, will continue unabated, given a Thursday-Friday trip by Senator Marsha Blackburn marked the fourth US delegation trip in under a month.

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Tilting the Scales

As we wrote on Friday afternoon (here on ZeroHedge), Powell was given the opportunity to speak in a format that let him sound like the inflation hawk that he probably really isn’t. What he really did was tilt the scales.

Prior to Friday, the market had once again managed to convince itself that the Fed would over-respond to “bad” news. If the news was bad (on a scale of 1 to 10, say at 5) the market was beginning to think that the Fed would respond as though the news was a 7 (i.e. the Fed would err on the side of providing the market put we have all grown used to and some can’t even remember a time when it didn’t exist). After Friday, the market (at least for a bit) probably needs to assume that bad news on a scale of 5 will be responded to as though it was a 3. The Fed put isn’t gone, it has just been struck a bit further out on the calendar and at a slightly lower strike price.

Basically, Powell has me convinced that the Fed will still put pressure on the scales, but they will err on the side of letting markets and the economy slow (more than the market was pricing in).

Did the market get too pessimistic Friday? That really depends on whether you think that the market was too optimistic going into the week or was realistically priced. From my previous notes, I was leaning towards the markets being too optimistic, but we must respect (or more accurately, be deathly afraid of) the lack of liquidity. Anything can and will happen in this sort of illiquid market. I still like owning the tails on equities (long out of the money puts and calls) and trying to trade in and around exuberance and doom.

From a rate hike perspective, the market is close to rational now (which is good from a risk perspective), but it is going to be far more difficult for us to get the “bad news” is “good news” trades as we cannot expect the Fed (or other central bankers) to come to the rescue quite as quickly or as aggressively.

Quantitative Tightening is NOT Equivalent to a Rate Hike – It is Worse!

We are going to see more and more headlines as quantitative tightening increases in size in September. An academic report came across my desk and I agree with what the summary seemed to suggest – central bankers need to be cautious with QE as QT is difficult to control.

Please read our April Report – QT Does Not Act Like a Rate Hike. It argues why trying to translate balance sheet reduction into some equivalent of rate hikes is not only an exercise in futility, but why going in that direction will likely lead to risk management mistakes. The Newton’s cradle theory of how QE and QT work continues to be my base case and we could see pressure on risk assets not just because QT is getting more aggressive, but because the media is going to be focusing on it (adding to the fear).

In terms of “tilting the scales,” I think that we will see more weight put on the problems that QT causes and that will be a strong headwind for markets in the coming weeks (until it gets priced in).

Crypto, Energy, Semi-conductors, Web Services, Advertising, and More

Now that Powell came out standing firm on inflation, the probability of a crypto crash (bitcoin going below $7,500) has increased to 25% in the coming weeks. Bitcoin has broken $20,000 again this weekend and if it breaks below $17,000 then that probability increases even more.

Please read last weekend’s Why a Crypto Crash Would Hurt Markets and the Economy for why I think this is something mainstream companies and investors need to be worried about (and it might not be just some “niche blow up” like it would have been a few years ago).

How are the Scales Tilted?

As we start this week and get ready for what could be an “interesting” September, I try and do a quick summary of what I think is the likely “weighting” on various subjects versus what I see the market currently sizing up those risks to be.

• European Recession and Energy Crisis. FX markets seem to be pricing this in as a near certainty. I’m probably close to an 8 out of 10, but the market is more certain. Without some increased intensity in fighting or some extraordinary action by Russia on the energy front, the bleakness (and it is bleak) is largely priced in. It is a bit scary, but on the Hopium™ front, the best hope is weather – rain, wind, and warm temperatures.

• Jobs. We get JOLTS and NFP this week. The market seems to believe the Establishment data, and views jobs remaining strong (call it a 6 or 7 out of 10). I’m looking for a rude awakening in the data and think jobs might be a 2 or 3 and the market has to reprice a lot of risk into the job market. After Friday, negative jobs data will hit markets harder as we cannot assume (at least not this soon) that the Fed will come out sounding dovish in the event of bad data on the jobs front.

• Inflation. The Fed, politicians, and the media are still treating inflation as though it is a 9 on the problem front. However, the market has discounted it to a 5 or 6 on the problem front (i.e., it already peaked and is rolling over). My view is that later this year we will be talking as much about deflation as inflation, so there is more downside here. Can we rally on lower inflation? Yes, and that is still the most likely response, but I’d fade those rallies as my narrative for the economy is more doom and gloom and I don’t think this time is different – basically commodities, the economy, and markets will all go down together if we maintain our current strategies.

• Inventories. I think that the inventory build has possibly hit generational levels. The risks are severe and under-rated. These risks are one of the main reasons why China is going to struggle to export their way out of their current problems – our shelves are already stuffed to the gills with excess inventory. Markets see this risk as a 2 or 3 and barely worth the conversation, especially after some major companies downplayed the risk. I think it’s a 7 or 8 in terms of economic risk and if it becomes a mainstream/daily headline, markets will be forced to react – negatively for risk.

• China. I will do a full update on China later this week and I think that the risks are high, but the markets are pricing most of those risks in.

Bottom Line

Nothing very different from Friday, though the selling into the close was strong enough that we had to suggest nibbling at risk for now.

Rates. I’m looking for more flattening (or more inversion as the case may be). I’m probably neutral on the front-end (rather than bearish). So much hiking pressure is being priced in that I could see some of that backing off. I like the long-end (because clearly, as a whole, we will get more bad news that hasn’t been priced in). The 20-year seems intriguing to me as it has finally caught a bid and the yield seems incredibly high relative to anything else in a market where not much jumps out as being “obvious”.

Credit. Look for spreads to widen. Leveraged loans make me nervous here as does high yield. I like lower dollar priced bonds, almost regardless of spread, as there are many non-traditional credit players still intrigued by owning anything at low dollar prices. This is best played using the longest-dated bonds issued at low coupons (i.e., BBB+ and above issuers). There are some lower rated issuers that qualify too, but if the economy is turning, they won’t get the ratings upgrades that would help and might attract some doom and gloom narratives. The narratives will be overdone, but that won’t stop them from working at least for a bit. Remember there is an entire cottage industry of pundits who know absolutely nothing about credit and love to spin “credit is doomed” narratives, which is bad and weird enough, but they shockingly continue to get media attention as everyone hopes to be early on the “next” big short.

Equities. Maybe we bounce a bit as Friday’s reaction might have been a bit much, but I think with QT, the risks that I see on the data front (relative to what is priced in), and my concerns about the ramifications of extreme crypto weakness, I’m bearish here. However, owning some upside optionality makes sense given the lack of liquidity. I expect that if CTAs have really switched back to short (I’m hearing that is possible), then we will get some complaining about fundamentals versus technicals if we go lower (though no one was saying that when CTAs were busy buying and helping fuel what looked like a bear market rally that has finished). It was a big bear market rally, but it is looking more like that than a true bottom.

Data dependent. I’m expecting worse than expected (or priced in) data and that drives my current views. Please remember that I’m in the NYC Taxi Lurch camp rather than the Town Car Smooth Ride camp. I’ll react to the data, but I am really convinced that we cannot get the “bad news is good news” trades after Friday and that is a relief to me as I struggle with those trades!

In any case, let’s hope this week isn’t so long that it wrecks our much-needed Labor Day long weekend! If you get a chance, start the week off right as Academy will be on Bloomberg TV at 7am ET on Monday!

At least 23 people have been killed and 87 injured in Tripoli as tensions between rival political groups erupted into street combat on Saturday. The United Nations has called for an immediate ceasefire. U.S. ambassador Richard Norland urged rival parties to agree to an early date for elections, and to reduce tensions “before things get worse.” 

Though Libya has been a disaster ever since Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama teamed up with NATO to facilitate regime change in 2011, the last two years have been relatively calm. That calm ended Saturday as combatants fired small arms, heavy machine guns, mortars and other heavy weapons. Explosions occurred in various sectors of Tripoli — the country’s capital — and smoke drifted across the skyline. 

Two groups are contending for rule over Libya: The Government of National Unity (GNU), which is led by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, and a rival group led by Fathi Bashagha, the former interior minister. Bashagha has the support of Libya’s eastern parliament, which is based in Tobruk. In essence, this is a battle of two rival prime ministers and two rival governments. 

Citing Saudi al-Arabiya TV, VOA reports: 

Incoming Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha, who was named earlier this year by the country’s eastern-based parliament, asked outgoing Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah to “leave the capital,” while Dbeibah responded that he was “too busy dealing with the country’s business.” 

Last week, Bashagha urged “Libyan men of honor” to withdraw their backing of Dbeibah’s “obsolete and illegitimate” government. Meanwhile, Dbeibah, who was appointed to his post last year pursuant to a UN-brokered peace process, has declared he won’t relinquish power until elections are held. 

According to BBC, Saturday’s fighting broke out when a convoy of Bashagha-backing militia was challenged by GNU forces. Reuters elaborates that in the afternoon, militia forces seemed to be closing in on the city from three directions. A witness says one of the convoys was 300 vehicles strong, but had turned back toward its Misrata base. 

Fighting is reportedly concentrated in a densely-populated, three-square-kilometer area near the center of Tripoli. Some hospitals were reportedly struck amid what the UN’s Libya mission characterized as “indiscriminate medium and heavy shelling in civilian-populated neighborhoods.” According to the Libya’s health ministry, 17 of the dead are civilians. 

Though we can’t confirm their authenticity, purported videos of the hostilities have circulated on social media: 

Here are 4 tweets explaining how the latest battle in #Tripoli could turn into Libya’s next civil war

This moment captures the trauma of another horrible war as children flee gunfire. pic.twitter.com/AvtrepBqkD

— Anas El Gomati (@AGomati) August 27, 2022

There are clashes and explosions in Tripoli, the Libyan capital.#Libya pic.twitter.com/GwuM62gfbU

— 301 Military (@301military) August 27, 2022

In Tripoli, the house of the commander of the an-Nawasi group, Mustafa Kaddoura, who supports Fathi Bashagha, was blown up. Libya pic.twitter.com/Cg3yCG8fvw

— IntelSky (@Intel_Sky) August 27, 2022

BREAKING: According to the Libyan Ministry of Health, 23 people were killed and 150 were injured in clashes between rival militias in Tripoli, Libya’s capital, on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/F5gooBRA4K

— BNN Newsroom (@BNNBreaking) August 28, 2022

🇱🇾In the capital of Libya, 11 years after the overthrow and murder of the “bloody dictator Muammar Gaddafi”, there are regular battles between gangs of different “democrat groups” who continue ravage and pillage the country(or what’s left of it) unfortunately… pic.twitter.com/KsUmkpadaa

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZmilitary1) August 27, 2022

🇱🇾☠️87 people were injured and 12 people were killed d̵u̵r̵i̵n̵g̵ ̵t̵h̵e̵ ̵o̵n̵g̵o̵i̵n̵g̵ ̵a̵r̵m̵e̵d̵ ̵c̵l̵a̵s̵h̵e̵s̵ after democracy was brought in Tripoli today – reports the Ministry of Health of Libya

”Freedom and democracy” explained in one video… pic.twitter.com/oqt11XKIsL

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZmilitary1) August 27, 2022

🇱🇾The fighting in Tripoli continues. According to preliminary data, as a result of the clashes, 23 people were killed and about 100 people were injured.

Effects of bringing ”freedom and democracy” to Libya can be seen more and more lately… pic.twitter.com/VE46qmFbhQ

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZmilitary1) August 27, 2022

Dueybi’s supporters took control of one of the military installations in Tripoli, and fighting for control of the city continues. And never Forget #Libya has been in turmoil since 2011 NATO-backed coup ousted the nation’s leader, Muammar Gaddafi, who was later murdered pic.twitter.com/qVBfXs050Y

— www.anoncandanga.com (@anon_candanga) August 27, 2022

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Economies can burn out, too, and they’re already sliding into the final stages of burnout.

Burnout has a startling knack for sneaking up on us. We’re stressed and tired but still functioning at a high level, and then suddenly our capacity to keep going collapses. We are no longer able to function no matter how much we (or others) cajole us. We’ve burned out and there are no quick, easy fixes. We have to slowly rebuild our lives to function at a much more leisurely pace and with far lighter loads of stress and much less systemic fragility.

This process is the subject of my recent book When You Can’t Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal ( sample chapter).

Economies can burn out, too. In other words, burnout is scale-invariant: we understand individuals burn out, but enterprises, cities and economies can burn out, too, for the same reasons individuals burn out.

University of California-Berkeley professor Christina Malasch pioneered research on what causes burnout. Her focus was on workplace burnout, but the dynamics she identified in toxic workplaces can also be constructively applied to all human systems, right up to the entire hyper-globalized, hyper-financialized global economy.

1. An overwhelming load of systemic stress from multiple sources (overwork, environmental damage, drought, debt, corruption, depletion, etc.)

2. A loss of control of the sources of systemic stress (workers have no control over their work, central banks can print money but they can’t print water, etc.)

3. Declining rewards for effort (workers not compensated for extra effort, positive policy initiatives thwarted by vested interests, etc.)

4. The network is toxic (the workplace is toxic, the political circus is toxic, the supply chain is toxic, etc.)

5. Injustice / unfairness is the order of the day (insiders rig the system to benefit their self-interests, “justice” is reserved for the rich and well-connected, show trials and execution by social media slander abound, etc.)

6. The system demands adhering to corrupt, destructive, venal values (the primacy of greed and self-interest, short-term gains outweigh long-term social / environmental costs, sleazy self-serving PR is the dominant form of communication, etc.)

Did you recognize all six sources of systemic burnout in the global economy? We have a winner! The sad truth is all six sources of systemic burnout are painfully obvious, and this goes a long way to explaining why the hyper-globalized, hyper-financialized global economy is unraveling in real time: the global economy is toxic to participants, the planet and the structural integrity of all human systems.

I found it difficult to pick a few examples of how economic / social systems burn out because there are so many examples. Since everyone has exposure to the medical system, let’s look at the immense expansion of the bureaucratic load on the system in the number of administrators and what they’re paid: both are off the charts when compared to physicians.

Unsurprisingly, young physicians are burning out. 

The administrators are earning big bucks rearranging the deck chairs on the Sickcare Titanic to maximize corporate profits by whatever means are available (overbilling, fraud, excessive meds and procedures, increasing workloads of staff, etc.), the frontline workforce is burning out and much closer to quitting en masse than the ill-informed public grasps.

Never mind the side-effects of the handful of meds we’ve prescribed, or where the med ingredients are sourced; make yourself comfortable on this nice deck chair here on the Sickcare Titanic. never mind that collision with the iceberg. Everything is under control, and we’ll be billing your insurer or Medicaid / Medicare shortly.

Water is in the news because it turns out, so very inconveniently, there is no substitute for fresh water and central banks can’t print more with a few keystrokes. Inconvenient indeed, as it turns out industry, energy, food and dang it all, life itself (not to mention the swimming pools of the filthy rich) depend on a reliably ample flow of fresh water–a flow that’s drying up globally.

The western U.S. is in the grip of a mega-drought, Europe is in the grip of drought and so is China. The political battle being waged by users (see chart of the claimant states using Colorado River water) has no winners, only losers. Which economic sector will dry up and blow away is now an open question globally.

The global economy’s Waste Is Growth Landfill Economy is expiring, and we’re ill-prepared to function without squandering resources via oh-so-profitable planned obsolescence, millions of vehicles sitting in traffic jams (more fuel wasted = higher GDP–we’re growing!) and bridges to nowhere.

The concluding paragraph of this article on China’s systemic water crisis cuts to the chase: reshore or perish: China’s Growing Water Crisis: A Chinese Drought Would Be a Global Catastrophe:

China-centric supply chains took decades to build and cannot be easily or quickly moved elsewhere. This is all the more reason for governments to act now to prepare key global markets for an extended water crisis in China. Nor is past experience much of a guide: when China suffered widespread multiyear droughts in 1876 and 1928, it was not the ‘factory floor of the world.’ Today’s global supply chains are woefully unprepared for a Chinese drought that could disrupt grain trade patterns and key industrial materials production across multiple continents. As China continues overexploiting groundwater amid intensified weather volatility, it moves closer each year to a catastrophic water event, and forceful steps must be taken while there is still time.

This is of course the subject of my 2021 book Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States ( free chapter) in which I lay out a strategy to reduce the toxic load of our economy / society, restore constructive values and move to a more productive, sustainable model of social and economic vitality.

Economies can burn out, too, and they’re already sliding into the final stages of burnout. The toxic feedback loops are mutually-reinforcing and time is short. Solutions abound but not in the infinitely greedy – Waste Is Growth Landfill Economy status quo.

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My new book is now available at a 10% discount this month: When You Can’t Go On: Burnout, Reckoning and Renewal. If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com.