Over 40% Of Americans Think Civil War Likely Within 10 Years

Over 40% of Americans think civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade, which increases to more than half among self-identified “Strong Republicans,” according to a YouGov/Economist survey.

Around 2/3 of those polled also believe that political division in this country has gotten worse since Joe Biden took office, vs. only 8% who say the country has grown less divided. 62% expect political division to increase.

60% of those polled anticipate an increase in political violence over the next few years, while 9% expect a decrease.

By party, Republicans are more likely to say political division has worsened and expect things to continue in that direction.

Civil War?

As YouGov writes in its report: What is the likelihood that political violence will culminate in a civil war in the U.S.? While only 14% of Americans say a civil war is very likely in the next decade, 43% say it is at least somewhat likely. About one in three – 35% – say it is not very or at all likely, and 22% are unsure. People who say they are “strong Republicans” are the political group most likely to anticipate a civil war: 21% say it’s very likely, compared to less than 15% of each of the other four political groups studied. 

Others aren’t so sure about civil war.

As Rachel Kleinfeld, a specialist in civil conflict at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told The Guardian earlier this month, “Countries with democracies and governments as strong as America’s do not fall into civil war. But if our institutions weaken, the story could be different.”