Chicago PMI Plunges Into ‘Contraction’ – Weakest Since June 2020

The Chicago PMI survey plunged unexpectedly back into contraction in September (to 45.7 versus 51.8 expectation). That is the lowest print for the survey since June 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

None of the underlying components rose relative to last month:

• Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

• Inventories rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• Production fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

Just add it to the list of recession red flags…