Russia Claims It Can Maintain Oil Production At 9.9 Million Bpd, Significantly Below Its OPEC+ Quota

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com,

Russia expects to keep its production at 9.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday, citing production volumes that are more than 1 million bpd below Russia’s current target under the OPEC+ deal.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia would keep oil production and exports at that level until 2025, vowing not to give up what he considered to be his world-leading position in the global energy markets despite sanctions.

“We are at the same level, 9.9 mln bpd. We currently have stable production,” Novak, who represents Russia at the OPEC+ meetings, said at an energy forum in Moscow today, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.  

Russia is set to keep the 9.9-million-bpd level throughout October, Novak added.

After the OPEC+ meeting last week, Novak said that Russian oil and condensate production would drop next year—from expected production of 530 million tons (10.6 million bpd) in 2022 and 490 million tons in 2023.

Last week, OPEC+ announced the biggest cut to its collective target since 2020. Despite the headline number of 2 million bpd, the actual cut from current OPEC+ oil production would be half that figure, at around 1 million bpd-1.1 million bpd. That’s because many producers, including Russia in recent months, haven’t been able to produce to their quotas for months.

Russia is estimated to have been around 1 million bpd below its 11-million-bpd quota for September, so it will not have to reduce any production and will only benefit from higher oil prices.

As of November, Russia’s production target will be 10.478 million bpd, the same as Saudi Arabia’s. While the Kingdom is set to reduce 526,000 bpd of its output, Russia will continue to be pumping well below its target level.

Additionally, Russian production could drop toward the end of this year and early next year because Moscow will have to find new homes for an additional 1 million bpd of products and 1.4 million bpd of crude as of December when the EU embargo kicks in, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil Market Report in September.

This could result in deeper declines in Russian oil exports and production, the IEA said. The Paris-based agency expects oil production in Russia to fall to 9.5 million bpd by February 2023, which would be a plunge of 1.9 million bpd compared to February 2022.