Chicago PMI Collapses To COVID-Lockdown Lows, Screams ‘Recession’

In a massive downside surprise, the Chicago PMI survey just printed 37.2 (vs 47.0 expectations), plunging to its lowest level since the peak of the COVID lockdowns in 2020. This was below the lowest estimate of 25 economists surveyed.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hoods was not pretty:

• Business barometer fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Prices paid rose at a slower pace; signaling expansion

• New orders fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

• Inventories rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Supplier deliveries fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

• Production fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

• Order backlogs fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

In 55 years, this level of Chicago PMI has never not failed to coincide with a recession.