Month: January 2023

In 1739, Benjamin Franklin sought to tackle the issue of counterfeit money in America, using a printing press and leaves to create unique raised patterns on the colonial notes.

Almost 300 years later, Benjamin Franklin is the face of the U.S. $100 bill, and it is protected by a myriad of security features including secret images, special ink, hidden watermarks, and magnetic signatures, among others.

In this infographic below, Visual Capitalist’s Avery Koop and Mark Belan have broken down the $100 bill to showcase the anatomy of American currency.

The Makeup of American Money

There are 6 key features that identify real bills and protect the falsification of American money.

① Serial Numbers & EURion Constellation

The most basic form of security on an $100 bill is the serial number. Every bill has a unique number to record data on its production and keep track of how many individual bills are in circulation.

The EURion constellation is star-like grouping of yellow rings near the serial number. It is only detectable by imaging software.

② Color Changing Ink

This ink changes color at different angles thanks to small metallic flakes within the ink itself. The $100 bill, like all other paper bills in the U.S., has its value denoted in color changing ink on the bottom right-hand corner; unlike other bills, it also features a liberty bell image using the ink.

③ Microprinting

Microprinting allows for verifiable images that cannot be scanned by photocopiers or seen by the naked eye. The $100 bill has phrases like “USA 100” written invisibly in multiple places.

④ Intaglio Printing

Rather than regular ink pressed onto the paper, intaglio printing uses magnetic ink and every different bill value has a unique magnetic signature.

⑤ Security Threads & 3D Ribbons

The security thread is a clear, embedded, vertical thread running through the bill. It can only be seen under UV light, contains microprinted text specifying the bill’s value, and on each different bill value it glows a unique color.

Additionally, 3D ribbons are placed in the center of $100 bills with a pattern that slightly changes as it moves.

⑥ Paper, Fibers, & Watermarks

Because American money is made of cotton and linen, blue and red cloth fibers are woven into the material as another identifying feature. Finally, watermarks are found on most bills and can only be detected by light passing through the bill.

The Relevance of Cash

Here’s a look at the total number of each paper bill that is physically in circulation in the U.S.:

 

Interestingly, a number of $500-$10,000 dollar bills are in someone’s pockets. And while they are not issued anymore, the Fed still recognizes the originals of these bills that were legally put into circulation in the past.

 

A $10,000 Federal Reserve Note (1934)

Additionally, there is fake money passing hands in the U.S. economy. Being the most widely-accepted currency in the world, it’s no wonder many try to falsely replicate American money. According to the U.S. Department of Treasury, there are approximately $70 million in counterfeit bills currently circulating in the country.

Finally, a natural question arises: how many people still use cash anyways?

Well, a study from Pew Research Center found that it while it is a dwindling share of the population, around 58% of people still use cash for some to all of their weekly purchases, down from 70% in 2018 and 75% in 2015.

Doug Wilson, Portfolio Manager, One River Digital Asset Management LLC

Just Another Cycle

Commodities are the lifeline to the global economy. We eat energy. Periods of strong demand often reveal strains in supply chains that lead to rapid price appreciation. Capital investment follows, with return expectations extrapolated from high prices and record margins. A downdraft in demand exposes excess investment, prices decline, and the weakest links in the supply chain are culled. Long periods of low prices lead to complacency, strong demand strains supply chains, and a rhythmic cycle emerges: boom, bust, recovery.

Natural gas in the early 2000s is an interesting example. From 2002 to 2008, natural gas prices experienced a period of dramatic price appreciation from $2.00/MMBtu to $16.00/MMBtu as economic activity accelerated and existing supply sources strained to keep pace. The market was sending a clear price signal to energy producers: to discover and capitalize on new sources of supply. This price signal had a ripple effect, as it also impacted associated sectors like power production, chemicals, and coal mining.

Cash flows from flush production found their way into Research & Development budgets that discovered technologies like Hydraulic Fracturing and Horizontal Drilling. A few hundred feet at first, now well laterals are measured in miles. Natural Gas Turbine efficiency (Heat Rate) improved dramatically. This new capital equipment and production were financed with organic cash flows initially, but then quickly morphed into aggressive rounds of debt and equity financing. This debt-fueled capital expansion of commodity industries was justified by the fact that prices were high, margins were at record levels, and the new technology allowed producers to be more efficient – lowering the unit cost of production. Recovery of capital was projected to happen in record time. It also brought rounds of leverage buyouts and acquisitions, most notably the 2007 TXU Energy LBO.

As we all know, the influx of new capital underwritten based on peak commodity prices and peak operating margins resulted in an unprecedented amount of supply additions across the natural gas, power sectors, uranium, and coal. This influx of supply, combined with a global downturn, compressed BOTH prices and margins significantly. Debt service could not be sustained. As a result:

• TXU went bankrupt – along with many other Independent Power Producers (Mirant, Reliant, Calpine, etc.),

• Countless gas exploration & production (E&P) companies sought bankruptcy protection,

• Every single public coal company declared bankruptcy.

Ultimately, ownership was transferred from equity holders to lenders. The market participants that had eagerly embraced these assets quickly wrote them off as worthless – “Going to ZERO.” This presented a terrific entry point for longer-term, patient capital.

These ignored assets are now generating amongst the highest free cash flow yield across all industries. The catalyst for recovery was the rationing of new investment, enabled by the restructuring of capital.

Bitcoin Mining is following the same pattern now.

For context, the Bitcoin mining sector experienced an unprecedented BOOM in the autumn of 2021. This was driven by elevated commodity prices (Bitcoin at $67,734 on 11/9/2021) and record mining margins (Hash Spread1 of $550/MWh) brought about by the reduction in competition post China’s ban on Bitcoin Mining. This combination of high prices and record margins attracted new capital to the sector with the promise of rapid payback underwritten by continued projections of success.

​​Similar to past energy sector commodity BUSTS, the influx of new investments in Bitcoin mining resulted in a dramatic compression of Bitcoin mining margins from a peak of $550/MWh to $50/MWh.

Mining operations are currently profitable, but unable to service their financial obligations. So, they now must turn to bankruptcy. Since our webinar in July, our investment pipeline has expanded significantly as more Bitcoin mining lenders and borrowers find themselves in distress.

Similar to prior commodity cycles, our expectation is that ownership will pass from equity owners to lenders. We expect these new owners will run these businesses for cash flow as opposed to growth. Growth capital will avoid this sector for years, like prior commodity busts. 

Even with the depression of prices, there are real cash flows in Bitcoin mining. The Bitcoin network rewarded miners with $15.3 million of Bitcoin rewards per day thus far this month, which annualizes to $5.8 billion.

Bitcoin is going through yet another brutal adjustment. Each one is different. The unique feature in this cycle is that institutional miners were far more involved in this recent bull market, and the unwinding of that looks like a classic BOOM to BUST cycle in commodity markets. It will pass with discipline. Traders are hunting for the bottom in asset markets. Credit markets are providing the pristine opportunity to earn very strong yields in a low-price environment with considerable optionality to a recovery. The credit opportunity steers you away from calling the bottom of the cycle and focuses more on the necessary ingredients to get ready for the next upturn – disciplined capital.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sworn in as Brazil’s next president Sunday, and was greeted to cheers by hundreds of thousands of celebrating supporters packing the streets of the capital of Brasilia, after he defeated far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in what was the tightest presidential race in over three decades.

“Our message to Brazil is one of hope and reconstruction,” Lula said in an inaugural speech to Congress’ Lower House as his first act as president. “The great edifice of rights, sovereignty and development that this nation built has been systematically demolished in recent years. And to re-erect this edifice, we are going to direct all our efforts.”

Thus he’s vowing to heal a deeply divided nation, and at a moment many of Bolsonaro’s most die-hard supporters are still pushing for the Lula victory to get overturned. 

The Associated Press observed Sunday, “Many have gathered outside military barracks since, questioning results and pleading with the armed forces to prevent Lula from taking office.”

And further, the Left is labelling some Bolsonaro supporters who believe the election was fraudulent as ‘terrorists’:

His most die-hard backers resorted to what some authorities and incoming members of Lula’s administration labeled acts of “terrorism” – something the country had not seen since the early 1980s, and which has prompted security concerns about inauguration day events.

Security was especially beefed up in response to a mid-week incident wherein a man, now in custody, was believed plotting to assassinate the president-elect.

But on Sunday, another potential assassination plot was foiled, the military described, as a man was reportedly caught with a bomb trying to gain entry to inauguration day celebration events.

President-elect @LulaOficial makes his constitutional commitment in Congress and is sworn in as the 39th President of the Federative Republic of #Brazil. pic.twitter.com/Kx22r2WhbF

— Gurbaksh Singh Chahal (@gchahal) January 1, 2023

As Sky News reports, “A man carrying an explosive device and a knife has been arrested while attempting to enter the inauguration of Brazil’s new president, according to military police.”

“The man was trying to enter Brasilia’s esplanade for the inauguration of President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, according to a spokesperson from the city’s military police force,” the report details.

Journalists present in the capital on Sunday estimated some 300,000 were gathered along the esplanade to take part in the party in aftermath of Lula’s swearing-in ceremony.

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via DailyReckoning.com,

In the midst of all this incredible political and economic chaos, I was tasked with packing up my mother’s things to prepare for her move to assisted living. It’s a gravely emotional experience for anyone, as I’m sure you know.

I adore that woman. It’s hard to see her get old. Also, that house contained 100 years or more of family history. All this stuff takes up space. With everyone on the move, it’s hard to find a good home for things anymore. We had to make some hard choices.

Anyway, along the way, I opened a small safe and found a lockbox, and opened it. It was my father’s collection of coins. What was in there hadn’t been seen by anyone for perhaps 25 years (he died rather young).

It was startling and amazing to see. It was like finding buried treasure. There were coins from all over the world, gold, and silver. I’m not sure that I knew that he was a collector.

There were all the usual gold and silver bullion coins from all lands, all worth the price of their metal content. All are vastly up in value from when he bought them. There were also hundreds of silver dimes. And there were plenty of numismatics too and because I don’t know my way around this world, I’ll let the experts determine their value.

Good as Gold

I won’t tell you the total value for reasons of privacy but I will say that he made a very good investment. Stocks are fun and swing this way and that but these coins are stable, true, and always faithful. Dad knew that. He was right.

And thumbing through the collection always reminded me of his personal values. Yes, he was old-fashioned, you could say. He rallied around faith, family, honesty, hard work, productivity, great art, hard history, big books, deep learning, prayer, community service, and caring for others, all those things.

He was not only an astute investor. He was a compassionate and caring man. I recall walking with him on a hot windy day in the Texas mountains of the Southwest when a man of Mexican heritage passed us by and then stopped. “Dr. Tucker! You taught me to read! God bless you! God bless you!” My father smiled and shook his hand and we walked on.

I asked Dad what that was about. He said he once taught a class in English language for immigrant adults and that must have been a student. “Part of your job?” I asked. Dad said no, just as community service.

Okay, that was Dad. Talented. Dedicated. Humble too.

The Meaning of Coins

Back to the coins. They embody firmness of value. You can tell the history of the world through coins. There is an element of tragedy here, looking through coins from a time when money was sound, government was small, and Americans believed in liberty and independence.

The Constitution was taken seriously: gold and silver were minted as money.

The coinage suggested that too. The dimes were silver. The nickels were larger because they had less silver and more…nickel. Dollars were silver from the old Spanish world Thaler. The half dollar was…half a dollar. What does this suggest?

It suggests that government did not create money; it inherited it from the long history of commercial enterprise, dating even back to the late middle ages.

Then there is the gold. Dad must have loved the American Eagle coin because it suggested hope. Instead of banning gold ownership, the U.S. Treasury was now minting it for the people to own. He could not buy enough. But he also loved gold coins from all over the world. I found memos alongside some, in which he explained why he liked this one or that.

Truth in Coinage

These coins symbolize hope even today, a look back and a reminder that such times did exist. It is not in our imagination. Citizens used to carry truth and honesty in their pockets! Trade was calculated in something unchanging and valuable independent of government control.

A government that mints and distributes sound money trusts its people with their own lives. They also make inflation as we know it essentially impossible.

The Fed is a good printer. It is a terrible alchemist. So if you want to get rid of inflation once and for all, there is a way. Get rid of the Fed and make the dollar good as gold again. Make the dimes silver. Forget this embarrassing baloney-sandwich stuff we use today.

Let’s get back to truth. Not lies, like the Inflation Reduction Act or whatever they call it.

What are the chances? Almost none, sadly. The government is in too much debt and the people are too dependent on inflationary meddling. Leviathan would be impossible under a sound money regime. And tragically today so much of American life is about the perpetuation of Leviathan.

People everywhere are asking what they should do with their money because there seems to be few ways of making it without losing it. That’s how inflation works. You have to earn a high return above the inflation rate to feel good. It’s a rat race, even if it is a necessary one. But you know what’s not a rat race? Getting a safe, a cotton bag, and filling it with coins, a bit at a time.

Keep them for years, decades, and generations.

Preserving Value

It’s a truism in the investment world that you buy gold and silver not for its short-term return but for long-term security.

What does this mean?

Thousands of years of history have taught us the value of precious metals. No amount of crypto tokens, much less meta worlds of NFTs, are going to change that, as fun as they might be.

Gold keeps its value. But more than that, it symbolizes what it means to keep our values, as people, as societies, and as nations. They are physical objects but more than that, they embody a philosophy of living.

Think about this.

One day your children or grandchildren will be rifling through your stuff and they might come across your collection of gold and silver. Do you think their esteem for you will rise? Absolutely it will. It shows that you thought about the very long-term, not just the next investment cycle or election but lifetimes and generations.

And you know what I’m going to do with my Dad’s collection? So long as I don’t need to use them, I will keep them the same way he did. It’s my connection to him, his values, and also to a world that might seem long gone but did in fact exist. It’s an ideal. And we all need ideals. Ideals can be abstract but they can also be physical. That’s what these coins mean to me.

In a world of fleeting values and ceaseless and often pointless change, here we have something that we can both believe in and own. It’s real wealth, wealth for the ages, stuff we can carry in our pockets.

Now we carry “smartphones” that have become spying devices for government.

It was an emotional day. Mostly I will never forget the smile on my mother’s face when she saw all of this for the first time in decades. She remembered what a great man he was and how much she loved him.

After the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal from transfer of power to the Taliban in Afghanistan, abandoned US military equipment which contain biometric data have been popping up on Ebay.

Over the past year, German security researcher Matthias Marx and a small group of researchers at Chaos Computer Lab, a European hacker association, have bought six SEEK II (Secure Electronic Enrollment Kit) on the popular auction website, according to the NY Times.

The device, built as part of the Pentagon’s vast biometric collection expansion following the Sept. 11, 2011 attacks, has a tiny screen, a little keyboard, and a mouse pad. It also contains a thumbprint reader under a hinged plastic lid, an iris scanner, and a camera. They contained biometric data at detainment facilities, on patrols, during screenings of local hires, and after the explosion of an IED. Officials at the time were concerned over a rash of shooting in which Afghan police and soldiers fired on American troops, and were hoping that biometric data could help identify any possible Taliban agents within their bases.

The shoebox-shaped device, designed to capture fingerprints and perform iris scans, was listed on eBay for $149.95. A German security researcher, Matthias Marx, successfully offered $68, and when it arrived at his home in Hamburg in August, the rugged, hand-held machine contained more than what was promised in the listing.

The device’s memory card held the names, nationalities, photographs, fingerprints and iris scans of 2,632 people.

Most people in the database, which was reviewed by The New York Times, were from Afghanistan and Iraq. Many were known terrorists and wanted individuals, but others appeared to be people who had worked with the U.S. government or simply been stopped at checkpoints. Metadata on the device, called a Secure Electronic Enrollment Kit, or SEEK II, revealed that it had last been used in the summer of 2012 near Kandahar, Afghanistan. -NY Times

In response to the story, Defense Department spox Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder said: “Because we have not reviewed the information contained on the devices, the department is not able to confirm the authenticity of the alleged data or otherwise comment on it,” adding “The department requests that any devices thought to contain personally identifiable information be returned for further analysis.”

“It was disturbing that they didn’t even try to protect the data,” said Marx. “They didn’t care about the risk, or they ignored the risk.”

DC lawyer Stewart Baker, a former national security official, said that the biometric devices were useful tools in war zones, but that the data collected needed to be kept under control. He suggested that a data breach would “make a lot of people who helped the U.S. and are still in Afghanistan really uncomfortable.“

“This should not have happened,” Baker added. “It is a disaster for the people whose data is exposed. In the worst cases, the consequences could be fatal.”

Of the six devices the researchers bought on eBay — four SEEKs and two HIIDEs, for Handheld Interagency Identity Detection Equipment — two of the SEEK II devices had sensitive data on them. The second SEEK II, with location metadata showing it was last used in Jordan in 2013, appeared to contain the fingerprints and iris scans of a small group of U.S. service members. -NY Times

In one case, an American’s biometric data was found in one of the databases. He was formerly a Marine intelligence specialist who still works in intelligence, and said that his data was most likely collected during a military training course. He asked that his biometric file be deleted.

According to the Defense Logistics Agency, which is tasked with equipment disposal, the SEEK II and HIIDE devices never should have made it to the open market. Gear such as this is supposed to be destroyed on-site when no longer needed by the military.

One of the Ebay sellers, surplus equipment reseller Rhino Trade, said they bought the SEEK II at a military auction of government equipment and did not realize it had sensitive data on it.

“I hope we didn’t do anything wrong,” said David Mendez, the company’s treasurer.

“The irresponsible handling of this high-risk technology is unbelievable,” said Marx. “It is incomprehensible to us that the manufacturer and former military users do not care that used devices with sensitive data are being hawked online.”

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

America is facing a health crisis and it isn’t made up of bacteria or viruses—instead, it’s an impending medical insurance meltdown.

There is an expectation that as of Jan. 11, 2023, an estimated 15 million Americans will begin to lose health coverage.

The reason is that after three years of a COVID-19 public health emergency, the shield of continuous coverage offered by Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) will end.

Once the state of emergency expires, regular income requirements and restrictions will apply. This will disqualify millions who’ve benefited from congressional legislation passed in 2020 preventing disenrollment for the duration of the COVID pandemic.

Health care administrators are already bracing for the fallout as the end looms large.

The administration of President Joe Biden has set a tentative termination date for Jan. 11, though many analysts believe it will be extended. That’s because White House officials promised a 60-day notice before making it official.

Even with an extension, it’s only delaying the inevitable, according to industry insiders. An avalanche of newly uninsured Americans will still tumble into the national health care system.

An estimated 15 million adults and children will be unenrolled once the health emergency ends, according to an analysis from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning Evaluation. Within that group, 8.2 million will no longer be eligible for Medicaid. Another 5.3 million children also won’t qualify for CHIP.

Barely a third of those in line to be ejected into the insurance marketplace will qualify for tax credits or other programs. That will leave millions in limbo, scrambling to find affordable insurance.

With such a high volume of newly uninsured patients, some analysts predict cost increases for doctor visits, especially in the emergency room.

Coverage Too Expensive

Others say it will contribute to America’s spiraling mental health crisis, which currently affects more than 50 million people.

“We talk about this at work a lot. From the human perspective, it’s not just CHIP and Medicaid, it’s also disability plans. That’s what we’re most worried about, disability and seniors,” Amanda Jones told The Epoch Times.

Jones is a senior health professional who has worked with U.S. government health-care programs for 14 years. She says it won’t be as simple as just rolling back into the program once the state of emergency expires.

Because for many using subsidized programs, other coverage is just too expensive. Those who don’t qualify for alternative, affordable care plans will likely just go without, according to Jones.

Affordable private coverage options can also vary drastically from state to state.

Slipping Through Cracks

One study in 2022 showed a staggering 112 million U.S. adults struggle to afford medical insurance. In the same report, 93 percent said they felt the benefits aren’t worth the high price tag.

The other part of the problem is coverage gaps. Even short breaks in coverage can create a bottleneck at the administrative level for many doctors and specialists.

“With a lapse in coverage, getting people back into their routine with their medical doctors is complicated,” Jones explained.

Another harsh reality is many will fall through the gap between income requirements and being able to afford private insurance. Those who slip through will be the most likely to forego coverage. This translates into a price hike in medical services in the long run. “Higher administrative costs in health care will get passed onto other customers. There will also be a lot more emergency room visits,” she said.

Jones also noted that a lot of current Medicaid and CHIP members wouldn’t lose total coverage, but a lot of their benefits. This is especially prevalent for those who rely on prescription medications and regular doctor visits.

Medicaid enrollment surged to record levels in 2021, topping 80 million members. Much of that is because many lost employment during the pandemic and lacked affordable coverage options.

After Congress passed legislation in March 2020 to protect insurance coverage, enrollment soared, because the main caveat for states to access the enhanced federal funding under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act was the prohibition on disenrolling people using Medicaid during the emergency.

Jones says Biden’s 60-day notice is a drop in the bucket. “Sixty days in the business world is like, a week. It’ll be a huge strain on care coordinators.”

With disabled people, seniors, and children set to feel the biggest impact, some industry workers say the U.S. mental health crisis will escalate.

Read more here…

Crypto endured a major hangover year in 2022 after a 2020-21 boom during the central banks’ Covid liquidity party. The emerging blockchain space was battered by central banks removing the punch bowl, harsh macroeconomic environment, bankruptcies, exchange blowups, stablecoin implosions, and even criminal charges against top crypto executives. 

“Consistent interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening in 2022 granted us a devastating hangover. Fortune did not favor the brave, and we entered a consistent doom cycle of default, fraud, and contagion. A financial crisis with seemingly no end that still ravages our industry. In 2022, the naked swimmers were exposed and bad apples got eliminated. This is promising through long-term lenses, while ever so painful in the short term,” Vetle Lunde, research analyst at Arcane, wrote. 

Lunde wrote if 2022 had one key lesson for the crypto industry, it would be the following: “your funds in someone else’s custody is someone else’s liability, and their intentions could be harmful. While there are good arguments for storing funds at exchanges, traders should strive to avoid concentrating risks on one venue.”

Arcane’s analyst put together the top headlines that defined the crypto industry in 2022 — much of the headlines were doom and gloom. 

Lunde pointed out Bitcoin recorded the second worst year-to-date returns in existence. He called the down move in crypto “a painful ride.” 

Lunde continued with an outlook for 2023, expecting a calmer market due to declining volatility. 

We expect the market to calm down in 2023, with declining volumes and falling volatility. Overall, we expect interest and headlines related to crypto to be fewer and the market to be less hectic in general. This will be a year to accumulate and build exposure. It will be a year for the patient, and we do not anticipate prices nearing former all-time highs in 2023. We believe BTC and ETH will increase their relative strength in the market and that altcoin returns will be subdued for most of the year.

And he revealed further the current drawdown in Bitcoin appears to follow similar bear market patterns in previous cycles.  

The 2018 bear market saw a 364-day long duration from peak to through, while the 2014-15 bear market lasted for 407 days. For now, BTC has bottomed 376 days after peaking, right in between the duration of earlier cycle peak to through periods. If a new bottom is reached in 2023, this will be the longest-lasting BTC drawdown ever.

And one silver lining the analyst said about the FTX debacle is that it might increase “more rapid progress with regulations, and we view both positive signals related to U.S. spot BTC ETF launches and more coherent classifications of tokens as a plausible outcome by the end of the year, with exchange tokens being particularly exposed for potential security classifications.”

Here is Lunde’s core 2023 forecast for crypto:

While the tightening macro landscape and BTC’s correlated relationship to macro complicate analogies to previous bear markets, we firmly believe that this is an excellent area to build gradual BTC exposure. However, we expect low activity to be the key trend throughout most of 2023, with diminishing trading volumes and volatility in a significantly more boring market than the previous three years. As we advance into the next year, patience and long-term positioning will be key. 

Much of the crypto down cycle has come since the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive tightening scheme in decades. 

And rate traders are already pricing in the possibility the Fed might have to begin cutting late in the second half of 2023. 

He also noted Bitcoin liquidity is drying up as the coins are being pulled off the markets. 

This has direct implications for BTC liquidity and, in particular, experienced BTC scarcity. With fewer BTC available to trade, the impact of the net buyer or net seller will be more significant, and we believe the market is slowly headed towards a scenario where the net buyer will once again make a difference.

The backward-looking review and forward outlook might suggest crypto winter has peaked, while others, such as David Marcus, CEO and founder of Lightspark, recently warned crypto will need until at least 2024 to “recover from the abuse of unscrupulous players.” 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

This dynamic – making problems much worse by forcing more of whatever worked in the previous era into a saturated, increasing unstable new era – receives little attention or understanding.

Eras may last decades, and only those who’ve lived long enough to recall previous eras have experienced the transition from one era to the next. The era of financialization, globalization and low-cost, abundant oil/natural gas began over 40 years ago in 1981.

The era of digital / Internet technologies took off about 30 years ago. All of these dynamics accelerated in the early 2000s, roughly 20 years ago.

Only those 60 and older experienced working in a previous era (pre-1981).

All of these dynamics are entering a phase of nonlinear turbulence as the changes are outpacing these highly streamlined / optimized systems’ ability to self-correct.

This nonlinear instability is being accelerated by doing more of what worked in the previous era, in the mistaken belief that the 2020s are simply an extension of the eras that began 40 and 30 years ago.

The fixes that worked in the past won’t resolve the nonlinear instability because all these dynamics have reached saturation: adding more debt no longer generates organic expansion of productivity, all it does is inflate an even larger and more unstable credit-asset bubble.

Globalization has been optimized to the point of saturation: the potential downsides to national security outweigh any remaining marginal gains in corporate profitability.

Financialization has so distorted the economy that gambling on useless speculations is now viewed as the best (or only) way to get ahead.

When a system has absorbed all it can absorb, adding more is just a waste of resources.

We’ve entered a new era, and so the fixes and incentives that worked in the past 40 years no longer work.

The idea that the past 30 years were not a permanent era but an anomaly that’s come to an end doesn’t compute for everyone who has only experienced the “glorious 30” years of cheap energy, soaring assets and falling prices due to hyper-globalization and hyper-financialization.

The idea that this new era may evolve unpredictably is also anathema to a technocratic culture and economy that prides itself on forecasting and controlling everything with credit and money.

The previous 40 years of material abundance has nurtured a belief that the solution to any scarcity is to create more money, as some of this new money will inevitably flow into eliminating the scarcity.

The idea that some scarcities cannot be fixed by creating more money doesn’t compute.

It may turn out that all the lessons we learned in the past 40 years will not only be useless in this new era, they will be disastrously counter-productive.

Their unparalleled success for decades may blind us to the power of previous solutions to make our problems worse than they would have been had we recognized the new era for what it is rather than seeing the future as a seamless extension of the previous era.

This dynamic–making problems much worse by forcing more of whatever worked in the previous era into a saturated, increasing unstable new era–receives little attention or understanding.

This dynamic helps us understand why systems that seemed permanent and forever can destabilize and fall apart with astonishing speed.

We thought we were fixing it by doing more of what worked in the past, but we were actually accelerating the turbulence and destabilization.

We have a hard time letting go of the idea that the recent past is an accurate guide to the future. In stable eras, it generally is, but not when an era ends and a new one begins.

*  *  *

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The Montgomery Regional Airport in Alabama reported on New Year’s Eve that an American Airlines worker was killed in an “industrial” accident. 

American Airlines Flight 3408, an Embraer E175, was scheduled to depart Montgomery for Dallas-Forth Worth Saturday afternoon when a baggage handler was sucked into the plane’s jet engine. 

“Today around 3 pm an American Airlines ground crew piedmont employee was involved in a fatality, no additional information is available at this time,” the airport tweeted. “Our thoughts and prayers are with the family of the deceased.”

Today around 3 pm an American Airlines ground crew piedmont employee was involved in a fatality, no additional information is available at this time. Our thoughts and prayers are with the family of the deceased.

— Montgomery Regional Airport (@flymgm) January 1, 2023

Reuters confirmed with two sources the baggage handler died in “an accident involving one of the airplane’s engines that was running.”

BREAKING: Baggage-handler fatally sucked into American Airlines jet engine at Montgomery Regional Airport in Alabama
pic.twitter.com/hIKQlLQYQ8

— Intel Point Alert (@IntelPointAlert) January 1, 2023

All outbound and inbound flights were briefly halted and resumed normal operations by late Saturday. 

Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

Ableism: the idea that ability, competence, achievement, and merit are somehow better than their opposites. A disgusting remnant of a White, patriarchal society that must be eviscerated with all due haste.

Bigotry: opposition to any belief or opinion held by a “progressive.”

Conservatism: an existential threat to our democracy, practiced by bad people. Must not be tolerated.

Diversity: the lifeblood of our democracy, enriching all of us.

Dr. Fauci: a God-like figure who actually exists, and selflessly serves humanity in the blessed name of “science.” Hallowed be His name and peace be upon Him forever and ever. Amen.

Extremist: someone who disagrees with a Democrat.

Fairness: when progressive ideas and/or candidates carry the day. (Antonym, unfairness: when conservative ideas and/or candidates carry the day.)

Far-right: this term is rightfully applied to any individuals or groups who oppose Democratic/woke policies and talking points.

Fascist: someone who disagrees with a Democrat.

God: a mythical figure, created by conservatives to impose their arbitrary version of morality on sexual minorities and non-conformists.

Heterosexual: a boring, old, unhip, and often intolerant group of individuals that cling to outmoded ideas of sexual relationships and complementarity.

Illegal aliens (more properly called “undocumented immigrant”): downtrodden and oppressed, these people must be allowed free access into our country and the freedom to go wherever they like, in any quantity, without restraint. They bring much needed diversity and skill sets to our land.

Invasive species: a dire threat to our land, whose spread must be stopped at all costs. These insidious invaders often overwhelm and supplant indigenous species.

Justice: when Democrats prevail. (Antonym, injustice: when conservatives prevail.)

LGBTQIA+: a diverse and loving community of tolerant individuals who have been the victims of bigotry and injustice in this country due to systemic homophobia and misogyny.

Man: though there is no currently agreed on definition for this amorphous term, all can agree that testosterone-fueled toxic masculinity — and the patriarchy — are very bad things indeed.

Mentally-challenged individual: someone who disagrees with a Democrat.

Misinformation: any report, data, or information, regardless of veracity and legitimacy, that does not confirm/affirm Democrats’ talking points and advance their agenda.

Pride!: what everyone who isn’t heterosexual should have… and should shove in heterosexuals faces at every opportunity.

Queer: another term for homosexual. Synonymous with Pride!.

Riot: a mostly peaceful demonstration by the oppressed against their oppressors. (As opposed to an “insurrection,” which is when conservatives and patriots question their rightful rulers.)

Terrorist: someone who disagrees with a Democrat.

Threat to our democracy: someone who disagrees with a Democrat.

Tolerance: the highest virtue, one that affords respect to all of us, regardless of our differences.

Uniparty: used to describe the bipartisanship and unity to which we all aspire. Achieved when Republicans cave to our demands. (Which, fortunately, is nearly always.)

Woman: there is no currently agreed on definition for this amorphous term.