Month: January 2023

Something’s Gotta Give…

Something’s Gotta Give…

Authored by Jesse Felder via TheFelderReport.com,

We’re at a fascinating juncture here in the markets.

Stocks have sold off hard for a little over a year now but have rallied once again in the short run. The result is that the S&P 500 Index has formed a fairly tight coil or pennant pattern over the past several months. And, as my friend Peter Atwater points out, this coil is merely a visual representation of a fierce battle going on in the markets.

This tug-of-war between bulls and bears is centered on the trends in inflation, monetary policy and the economy. The recent rally in stocks has been driven by the idea that inflation will rapidly come down back to the Fed’s 2% target, without an economic recession as catalyst, allowing the Fed to end and even reverse its rate hike campaign later this year. As to inflation, CPI swaps are now pricing in a rapid decline in inflation over the course of this year.

The stock market clearly sees this as good news. However, as the article above notes, a decline in inflation that rapid has only ever happened during steep economic recessions like that seen in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis just over a decade ago. Still, the market appears to be content to ignore the possibility of recession and discount strong earnings gains this year and next.

But if earnings are going to soar in a way that would preclude recession, then it would likely mean that inflation won’t come down back to 2%, as my friend Julian Brigden suggests. Markups have been a significant factor in both the strength of earnings and inflation over the past couple of years. And if inflation remains elevated, then the Fed may find itself coming under a great deal of pressure to keep interest rates elevated longer than the market expects if not raise them even higher than they have already indicated.

Of course, if the Fed is forced to raise interest rates even higher, the currently elevated probability of recession will grow even greater. A number of indicators, such as the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, suggest recession is not only likely but may have already begun. This perhaps helps to explain why many markets are so sanguine regarding inflation and also why they expect the Fed to be cutting rates later this year, rather than hiking.

And if the Fed is going to cut rates later this year, against its most recent guidance which suggests rates will remain elevated for a prolonged period of time, they would likely only do so in reaction to overwhelming evidence that recession has begun and inflation pressures will continue to wane as a result. Of course, this may not be the positive catalyst stock market bulls might hope for; just the opposite.

So either we avoid recession and earnings will show strong gains, forcing the Fed to get even more hawkish than markets currently expect (bringing on recession at a later time) or inflation will come down in reaction to a steep recession that will allow the Fed to cut interest rates once again. Neither scenario sounds particularly bullish for the stock market, especially given the fact that valuations remain at historically extreme levels.

But I guess we’ll have to see whether bulls or the bears exhaust first.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 14:24

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Highly-Cited ‘Hamilton 68’ Russiagate Tracker Is Total Hoax: Taibbi

Highly-Cited ‘Hamilton 68’ Russiagate Tracker Is Total Hoax: Taibbi

Out of the caterwaul of cries proclaiming that Russian collusion, and Russian influence operations, were the only reason Donald Trump won the 2016 US election (a hoax funded and promoted by his opponent, Hillary Clinton), a website which claimed to track said Kremlin efforts sprung forth, and was used to justify baseless allegations;

Hamilton 68: a widely-cited, (indirectly) state-sponsored propaganda tool.

The website claims to monitor a secret list of Twitter accounts which they accused of Kremlin control, however it’s impossible to verify their claims as the group has never disclosed their methodology.

Former FBI counterintelligence agent and “disinformation” expert Clint Watts, the spokesman for Hamilton

As Matt Taibbi notes via Racket:

Hamilton 68 was and is a computerized “dashboard” designed to be used by reporters and academics to measure “Russian disinformation”. It was the brainchild of former FBI agent (and current MSNBC “disinformation expert”) Clint Watts, and backed by the German Marshall Fund and the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a bipartisan think-tank. The latter’s advisory panel includes former acting CIA chief Michael Morell, former Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, former Hillary for America chair John Podesta, and onetime Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol. –Racket

And now, Taibbi has torn Hamilton 68’s ‘black box’ asunder after reviewing the latest batch of “Twitter Files.”

As Taibbi notes via Racket:

Ambitious media frauds Stephen Glass and Jayson Blair crippled the reputations of the New Republic and New York Times, respectively, by slipping years of invented news stories into their pages. Thanks to the Twitter Files, we can welcome a new member to their infamous club: Hamilton 68.

If one goes by volume alone, this oft-cited neoliberal think-tank that spawned hundreds of fraudulent headlines and TV news segments may go down as the single greatest case of media fabulism in American history. Virtually every major news organization in America is implicated, including NBC, CBS, ABC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times and the Washington Post. Mother Jones alone did at least 14 stories pegged to the group’s “research.” Even fact-checking sites like Politifact and Snopes cited Hamilton 68 as sources.

A small sample of Hamilton 68-sourced stories.

*  *  *

Twitter thought they were full of shit

Taibbi reveals that Twitter was concerned enough about Hamilton 68’s claims that they ordered a forensic analysis which found that of 644 accounts, just 36 were registered in Russia – many of which were associated with news outlet RT.

Note the second page lists many of the different types of shadow-banning techniques that existed at Twitter even in 2017

As Taibbi further notes (emphasis ours):

Examining further, Twitter execs were shocked. The accounts Hamilton 68 claimed were linked to “Russian influence activities online” were not only overwhelmingly English-language (86%), but mostly “legitimate people,” largely in the U.S., Canada, and Britain. Grasping right away that Twitter might be implicated in a moral outrage, they wrote that these account-holders “need to know they’ve been unilaterally labeled Russian stooges without evidence or recourse.”

Other comments in internal company emails:

“These accounts are neither strongly Russian nor strongly bots.”

“No evidence to support the statement that the dashboard is a finger on the pulse of Russian information ops.”

“Hardly evidence of a massive influence campaign.”

Declared Trust and Safety chief Yoel Roth: “I think we need to just call this out on the bullshit it is.”

The two founders of Hamilton 68, the blue-and-red team of former counselor to Marco Rubio Jamie Fly and Hillary for America Foreign Policy Advisor Laura Rosenberger, told Politico they couldn’t reveal the names of the accounts because “the Russians will simply shut them down.” Tchya, right. One look at the list reveals the real reason they couldn’t make it public.

This was not faulty science. It was a scam. Instead of tracking how “Russia” influenced American attitudes, Hamilton 68 simply collected a handful of mostly real, mostly American accounts, and described their organic conversations as Russian scheming. As Roth put it, “Virtually any conclusion drawn from [the dashboard] will take conversations in conservative circles on Twitter and accuse them of being Russian.”

Twitter execs wanted to out Hamilton 68!?

“Why can’t we say we’ve investigated… and citing Hamilton 68 is being wrong, irresponsible, and biased?” one exec asked, after Russians were blamed for hyping the #ParklandShooting hashtag.

Trust and Safety head Yoel Roth even wanted to confront Hamilton 68 – writing in one email “My recommendation at this stage is an ultimatum: you release the list or we do.”

“I also have been very frustrated in not calling out Hamilton 68 more publicly, but understand we have to play a longer game here,” said Carlos Monje, the future senior advisor to Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

But Future White House and NSC spokesperson Emily Horne advised against it.

 As Taibbi further notes:

“So the “legitimate people,” as one Twitter exec called them, never found out they’d been used as fodder for mountains of news stories about “Russian influence.” Because the #TwitterFiles contain the list, they’ve begun finding out.”

Hamilton’s victims speak out

“I’m shocked,” said Sonia Monsour, who as a child lived through civil war in Lebanon. “Supposedly in a free world, we are being watched at many levels, by what we say online.”

Another person alleged by Hamilton to be a Russian is Chicago-based lawyer David Shestokas.

“I’ve written a book about the U.S. Constitution,” he said, adding “How I made a list like this is incredible to me.”

Continued:

The Hamilton 68 story shows how the illusion of ongoing “Russian interference” worked. The magic trick was generated via a confluence of interests, between think-tanks, media, and government. Before, we could only speculate. Now we know: the “Russian threat” was, in this case at least, just a bunch of ordinary Americans, dressed up to look like a Red Menace. Jayson Blair had a hell of an imagination, but even he couldn’t have come up with a scheme this obscene. Shame on every news outlet that hasn’t renounced these tales. -Matt Taibbi

And Elon with the last word:

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 14:01

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Netherlands, Japan, US Reach Agreement To Throttle China’s Chip Ambitions As Tech War Heats Up

Netherlands, Japan, US Reach Agreement To Throttle China’s Chip Ambitions As Tech War Heats Up

The Biden administration could soon get the Netherlands and Japan to join the US in limiting China’s access to advanced semiconductor machinery, undermining Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ambitions to become a dominant superpower. 

According to Bloomberg, US, Dutch and Japanese officials wrapped up talks today on new guidelines for what type of chip-making equipment can be exported to China. Negotiations are closed doors, and there is no plan for a public announcement of restrictions. 

The Netherlands will likely curb exports of ASML Holding NV’s ultraviolet lithography machines that produce advanced chips to China. Japan will likely embrace similar limits for Nikon Corp. 

Sources told Reuters that a deal between Dutch and US officials could be reached in several days. Without Japanese or Dutch cooperation, the Biden administration’s move to curb China’s ability to produce high-tech chips for military applications would be limited. 

On Oct. 7, President Biden unveiled a sweeping set of export controls that ban Chinese companies from purchasing advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license. 

“We have been in discussion with the United States and other countries regarding the export-control regime,” Yasutoshi Nishimura, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, told Reuters on Friday.

“We will implement any measures in accordance with our Foreign Exchange Law and through international cooperation,” he added. 

Last fall, Mark Williams and Zichun Huang, analysts at Capital Economics, wrote in a report, “the US moves are a major threat to China’s technological ambitions.” The analysts noted that the global semiconductor industry is “almost entirely” dependent on the US. 

What’s very clear is the US-China tech war is accelerating. 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 13:44

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Georgia Governor Declares State Of Emergency Over Atlanta Protests, Mobilizes 1,000 National Guard Troops

Georgia Governor Declares State Of Emergency Over Atlanta Protests, Mobilizes 1,000 National Guard Troops

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency on Jan. 26, allowing up to 1,000 Georgia National Guard troops to be bought in to help deal with violent protests that have broken out in recent weeks, with further demonstrations anticipated over the weekend.

The declaration is effective immediately and will expire on Feb. 9, unless extended by the governor.

Specifically, the state of emergency is being activated owing to “unlawful assemblage, violence, overt threats of violence, disruption of the peace and tranquility of this state, and danger existing to persons and property,” according to the declaration, under which all resources of the state of Georgia will be made available to assist in the ongoing response to the state of emergency.

Kemp, a Republican, declared the emergency following a weekend of protests in downtown Atlanta that quickly turned violent.

Masked rioters lit fireworks in front of the Atlanta Police Foundation, shattering large glass windows and vandalizing walls with anti-police graffiti.

At least three businesses were damaged when bricks and rocks were thrown at properties, according to local reports. In some instances, protesters used hammers to smash windows. A number of police vehicles were also attacked during the protests and at least one was set on fire, according to the reports.

Broken windows at a Wells Fargo branch are seen following a violent protest, in Atlanta, on Jan. 21, 2023. (Alex Slitz/AP Photo)

Protests Turn Violent

“Masked activists threw rocks, launched fireworks, and burned a police vehicle in front of the Atlanta Police Foundation office building,” Kemp’s declaration read. “Georgians respect peaceful protests, but do not tolerate acts of violence against persons or property.”

Six people were subsequently arrested following the weekend demonstrations and given multiple charges, including domestic terrorism.

At a press conference on Jan. 21, Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens told reporters that some of the individuals had explosives on them.

The protests in Atlanta came in response to the death of Manuel Teran, 26, who was killed on Jan. 18 as authorities attempted to clear a group of demonstrators from an area that is set to be the future Atlanta Public Safety Training Center. Activists have been protesting at the site for months and have dubbed it “Cop City.”

Teran was reportedly helping to lead the protests when he allegedly shot and wounded a Georgia state trooper and was killed when police returned fire, according to a statement from the Georgia Bureau of Investigations.

“Officers gave verbal commands to the man who did not comply and shot a Georgia State Patrol Trooper. Other law enforcement officers returned fire, hitting the man. Law enforcement evacuated the Trooper to a safe area. The man died on scene,” the statement reads.

However, friends of Teran claim that they were peacefully protesting in the area.

This combo of images provided by the Memphis Police Department shows (top L–R) officers Tadarrius Bean, Demetrius Haley, Emmitt Martin III, (bottom L–R) Desmond Mills Jr., and Justin Smith. (Memphis Police Department via AP)

Police Charged in Murder of Tyre Nichols

Kemp’s emergency declaration comes as more protests are widely expected this weekend after the five police officers accused of killing a black man during a traffic stop on Jan. 10 were charged with second-degree murder.

Memphis Police Department officers Tadarrius Bean, Demetrius Haley, Emmitt Martin III, Desmond Mills Jr., and Justin Smith, who are all black and who have since been fired, were accused of beating 29-year-old Tyre Nichols to death during a Jan. 7 traffic stop.

Nichols died of his injuries three days later.

On Thursday, the Shelby County district attorney announced he would release footage of the arrest on Friday after 7 p.m. ET. A lawyer for Nichols’s family, Antonio Romanucci, described the footage as an “unadulterated, unabashed, non-stop beating of this young boy for three minutes,” adding, “he was a human piñata for those police officers.”

Atlanta Police released a statement to multiple media outlets on Thursday afternoon stating that they are “closely monitoring the events in Memphis and are prepared to support peaceful protests in our city.”

“We understand and share in the outrage surrounding the death of Tyre Nichols,” the statement continued. “Police officers are expected to conduct themselves in a compassionate, competent, and constitutional manner and these officers failed Tyre, their communities, and their profession. We ask that demonstrations be safe and peaceful.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 13:32

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Goldman Slashes Pay Of CEO And DJ D-Sol By 30% To $25 Million

Goldman Slashes Pay Of CEO And DJ D-Sol By 30% To $25 Million

A few weeks ago, when Goldman reported dismal Q4 earnings which saw its subprime-targeting consumer finance group report very ugly numbers, we joked that while “In 2008 Goldman made a killing on subprime; in 2022/23 Goldman is getting killed by subprime”

The final joke however appears to be on the CEO himself: on Friday, Goldman announced in a regulatory filing that it paid chief executive David Solomon $25 million for 2022, down almost 30% from the year before after the Wall Street bank reported a steep drop in profits, cut thousands of jobs and slashed employee bonuses. But don’t cry for the part-time DJ: in 2021 his bonus was doubled to $35 million from the year before so he probably won’t starve (then again, we doubt D-Sol’s predecessor Lloyd Blankfein would even bother bending over for such pittance).

Goldman also disclosed that Solomon received a base salary of $2mn, and $23 million in variable compensation.

Mr. Solomon’s total annual compensation for 2022 is $25 million (which consists of an annual base salary of $2 million, unchanged year-over-year, as well as annual variable compensation of $23 million). 70% of this annual variable compensation (i.e., $16.1 million) is in the form of performance-based restricted stock units (“PSUs”), which tie 100% of Mr. Solomon’s equity-based compensation to ongoing performance metrics, with the remainder to be paid in cash. This compares to Mr. Solomon’s total annual compensation for 2021 of $35 million.

Goldman said its compensation committee considered, among other things, “the firm’s 2022 performance, both on an absolute basis and relative to peer results, as well as in comparison to the record performance delivered in 2021”.

As the FT notes, Solomon’s pay for 2022 had been the subject of speculation among Goldman’s rank and file in recent weeks, with many expecting a sizeable cut given the bank’s financial performance and a far-reaching review of expenses at the company.

Not surprisingly, the cut to Solomon’s pay is larger than that taken by Wall Street peers and reflects a challenging year for Goldman. However, it is still less than the cut to the bonus pool for the firm’s senior partner ranks, which as was previously reported, is about 40%.

The cut to Solomon’s bonus comes as Goldman’s profits plunged almost 50% from record earnings in 2021 and the bank fell short of a key profitability target. Its investment banking business suffered from an industry-wide dearth of dealmaking activity, resulting in a cut to bonuses for employees in that unit.

Goldman was also hit by sharp markdowns in public equity holdings at its asset management division and reported $2bn in losses for 2022 at its fledgling “Platform Solutions” unit, which houses part of its retail banking business that has been pared-back following disappointing performance.

Goldman’s overall spending on compensation and benefits for 2022 was down 15% year on year at $15.1bn.

Despite the cut, we are confident that Solomon will be just fine: the $35 million the Goldman CEO earned in 2021 made him the highest-paid big bank chief executive alongside Morgan Stanley boss James Gorman. In 2022, Gorman’s compensation was cut 10% to $31.5 million despite much stronger performance by the bank, especially when compared to Goldman.

Other bank CEOs also won’t starve: JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon was paid $34.5 million in 2022, the same as last year; Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf’s pay was also flat at $24.5mn.

According to FT calculations, Solomon’s compensation for 2022 is his lowest since the $17.5 million he earned in 2020 when his pay was hit by Goldman’s involvement in the 1MDB corruption scandal.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 13:06

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And Then They Came For “The”: Associated Press Warns Use Of The Article Can Be “Dehumanizing”

And Then They Came For “The”: Associated Press Warns Use Of The Article Can Be “Dehumanizing”

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Associated Press has announced that the article “the” should be avoided in many circumstances because it is “dehumanizing.”

It warns writers to avoid saying things like “the French” as offensive. It does not seem that we can even just add an x like Latinx. 

It is not a gender thing so “thx” will not suffice. It is now an article of faith to stop using the article “the” in referencing groups. 

It is reminiscent of Winston Churchill who was chastised for ending a sentence with a preposition. He responded by showing the artificiality of avoiding an ending preposition: “This is the type of arrant pedantry up with which I will not put.”

The AP declared that:

“We recommend avoiding general and often dehumanizing ‘the’ labels such as the poor, the mentally ill, the French, the disabled, the college-educated. Instead, use wording such as people with mental illnesses. And use these descriptions only when clearly relevant.”

Even the French Embassy responded with “Le” scorn.

By the way, if you are thinking of objecting to “the grammar police,” think again. It will just establish that you are a dehumanizing monster.

What concerns me most is that this dehumanizing article has lingered in the English language for so long without being noticed until now. Even The editors of The Associated Press are shadowed with this vile, dehumanizing word. It is literally lurking on every computer and in every  dictionary.

The only option is decisive action. AP must take its ox cart through the streets and call on people to bring out their “thes” for proper disposal.

As for any French people encountered along the way, simply refer to them as “people associated with the nation of France.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 12:50

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Watch: Paul Pelosi Hammer Attack Bodycam Video Released

Watch: Paul Pelosi Hammer Attack Bodycam Video Released

The San Francisco PD has released a video of the 2 a.m. Paul Pelosi hammer attack by David DePape.

Fast forward to around 30 seconds.

The footage comes after a San Francisco judge ordered the release of evidence related to the attack.

The San Francisco District Attorney’s Office must release the 911 audio calls, home surveillance video, and police body camera footage from the attack on Pelosi after a judge on Wednesday rejected a request from prosecutors to keep it secret, CBS Sacramento reported.

San Francisco Superior Court Judge Stephen Murphy also ruled that audio recordings of a police interview with the suspected assailant, David DePape, must be made public. It is unclear when the evidence will be unsealed.

Adam Lipson, DePape’s defense attorney, objected to the release of the evidence, arguing that it might impair his client’s ability to get a fair trial, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

DePape stands accused of breaking into Pelosi’s home on Oct. 28 and carrying out a brutal hammer attack against the 82-year-old husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Interestingly, the new video more or less matches what still-missing NBC News correspondent Miguel Almaguer reported in November, who reported that “After a ‘knock and announce,’ the front door was opened by Mr. Pelosi. The 82-year-old did not immediately declare an emergency or try to leave his home,” reports NBC. Instead, Pelosi “began walking several feet back into the foyer toward the assailant and away from police.”

Pelosi and DePape were reportedly alone for 30 minutes.

Meanwhile, a neighbor living across from the Pelosis who was awake when the assault took place didn’t hear an alarm or anything unusual. 

“No, not a thing, and you know we were awake at that hour in the morning; my husband was awake. We didn’t even hear sirens,” neighbor Sally McNulty told The Epoch Times.

McNulty, who has lived in the neighborhood for 20 years, said everything was quiet around the time of the 2 a.m. attack on Oct. 28.

“This is one of the quietest streets in the city,” she said. “You can hear a pin drop at night.”

McNulty said she doesn’t recall ever hearing the Pelosis’ alarm go off in the past, though she has occasionally heard others in the neighborhood.

She said that Paul Pelosi had no enemies she knew of and was well-liked.

Other neighbors declined to comment.

Marjorie Campbell, a former neighbor of the Pelosis for 10 years, told the Daily Mail she recalled fleets of black SUVs surrounding the house around the clock when she stayed there.

Everyone in the neighborhood has alarms on their windows, and if glass were smashed, an alarm would sound, she told the publication. Campbell recalled her computers getting scrambled by alleged security measures to protect the congresswoman.

Nancy Pelosi was at her Pacific Heights home, the site of the attack, on Nov. 2 while several dark SUVs were parked outside. Capitol Police were present, too, as were multiple San Francisco Police Department cars.

Paul Pelosi had surgery to address a skull fracture and other injuries at the Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center, after 42-year-old David DePape allegedly fractured his skull with a hammer on Oct. 28.

DePape pleaded not guilty to an attempted murder charge during a brief appearance in San Francisco Superior Court on Nov. 1. -Epoch Times

Curiouser and curiouser.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 12:31

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The Squeeze Is On: Tesla Shares Rocket Higher, Now Up 20% In Two Days, MS Re-its “Top Pick”

The Squeeze Is On: Tesla Shares Rocket Higher, Now Up 20% In Two Days, MS Re-its “Top Pick”

Tesla shares have continued to move sharply higher since the company’s earnings report this week, with shares now over 70% higher than recent lows that were made just weeks ago.

Shares caught a tailwind when earnings this week were far less catastrophic than many on the street anticipated. Shares had been crushed, falling more than 70% from peak to trough over the last year and setting up an environment where shares could whipsaw higher, carrying out shorts, on any better than expected news. 

Recall, for the quarter, Tesla reported:

  • Revenue was a record $24.318BN, up 37% Y/Y, beating the consensus estimate of $24.1BN

  • Adj EPS $1.19, up 40% Y/Y, and also beating the consensus estimate of $1.12

  • Free cash flow $1.42BN, down 49% Y/Y, and missing estimates of $3.13BN

  • Capital expenditure $1.86 billion, up 3%, missing estimates of $1.9 billion

Bottom line: Tesla reported better-than expected profits amid growing skepticism about the auto industry, and signaled strength as it faces growing questions about demand for its all-electric vehicle lineup. Today’s squeeze is also being helped along by what appears to be retail piling back into the stock via massive, near dated call buying:

The last few days have seen put and call volumes for TSLA stock exploding once again…

And as the following table shows, that volume is dominated by 0DTE chaos…

And the dollar volume of TSLA stock traded is exploding too…

In a note published yesterday by Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley, he noted that “Management said Tesla has been raising prices again (slightly) and that the cuts on the website do not drop 1:1 into the FY23 ASPs due to order backlog, timing,and other factors.”

The note raised the question of whether or not Tesla’s lows were in…

One of the main worries heading into earnings was margin compression as a result of price cuts.

As we noted this week, while the top and bottom lines both beat, it came at a cost to margins: in Q4, Tesla’s Automotive Gross Margin was +25.9%, down a whopping 466bps from 30.6%,  and missing the estimate of +28.4%. The reason for this sharp drop in margins most likely has to do with the company’s creeping price cuts and still rising commodity costs. The drop in the automotive gross margin also hit the total gross margin, which dropped to 23.8% vs. 27.4% y/y, and also missed the estimate of 25.4%.

Jonas said these worries were alleviated: “Management expressed confidence in gross margins at 20%,alleviating the bear case. They also discussed potential cutting offsets and rolling off of inefficiencies burdeningFY22, suggesting OP margin is more resilient (we expect both gross and OP margins to fall).”

During the company’s earnings report, its reiteration of its 50% CAGR guidance was notable, Jonas says: “The company reiterated the long term 50% CAGR target (which is over 2x our forecast) and expects FY23 deliveries of around 1.8mn units (consensus) which embeds lingering supply chain issues. Management believes 2mm is possible if supply improves.”

The firm reiterated its choice of Tesla as a “top pick” and placed a $220 price target on the name:

“I’m not so sure about that. While we reiterate Tesla as our Top Pick with a $220 target, we see FY23as a year where auto price inflation turns to deflation compounded by continued macro and geopolitical uncertainty. With Tesla, there’s also the ever present background risk of ‘company specific’ idiosyncratic and sentiment-related factors that can also swing this historically volatile name in both directions. Within a wide range of outcomes, we could see Tesla test new lows in the first half (our updated bear case is $70) before exceeding our $220 price”

Recall,  2022 – and Q4 in general – was volatile, to say the least, for Tesla. Deliveries widely disappointed the market to start the year. Tesla announced earlier this month that it had delivered a record 405,278 vehicles for the Q4 2022 quarter.

The number marked a record for the company, but came in below most Wall Street estimates, even some that were revised lower. Consensus estimates for deliveries stood at 420,760 into the report, according to Bloomberg. “In 2022, vehicle deliveries grew 40% YoY to 1.31 million,” the company’s press release said.

This fell short of the 50% growth figure the company had once projected for the year – but the market appears to believe Tesla’s new, reiterated guidance as of two days ago…

One final thing of note. Remember the daily updates from the mainstream media as to just how much Elon Musk’s net worth had plunged after he closed the deal to buy Twitter…

…funny how we haven’t heard the same excitement as his net worth has exploded back higher in the last few weeks, eh?

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 12:22

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A Tale Of Two FICOs: As Discover Braces For Middle-Class Doom, AmEx Explodes As The Rich Splurge

A Tale Of Two FICOs: As Discover Braces For Middle-Class Doom, AmEx Explodes As The Rich Splurge

For a striking glimpse into the divergence between the worlds of the haves (i.e., the “top 1%”) and the have nots (everyone else), look no further than the earnings reports of credit-card issuer Discover, which tends to target lower and middle-income consumers, and American Express, which counts the wealthiest Americans as its clients: the divergence couldn’t be greater.

As we reported last week, there was a collective gasp from Wall Street analysts when Discover reported that its projected charge off rate for 2023 would surge, and expects it to more than double from its current 1.82% to as much as 3.90%.

The news sent DFS shares tumbling (at least initially, they have since been caught up in the market-wide squeeze that sent stocks to a 6 week high).

But what a difference a week makes: fast forward to today when unlike Discover, American Express did not predict any jump in charge offs; in fact the only thing that jumped – the most in more than two years in fact – was the company’s stock as the credit-card giant predicted that revenue and earnings for 2023 will surge well above what analysts estimated after the company saw customer spending on its cards soar to a record in the final three months of the year.

While total volume on AmEx’s network increased less than expected in the final three months of last year, the record number of new cardholders AmEx added in 2022 should help revenue climb as much as 17% in 2023, the company said. That’s about 50% higher than the 11% analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting.

“It’s a premium customer base, and that premium customer base, while not immune to economic downturns, certainly right now is spending on through,” Chief Executive Officer Stephen Squeri said on a call with analysts Friday. “This is a premium card member base that appreciates premium products and is spending.”

Squeri also said in the company’s press release that earnings per share should jump to a range of $11 to $11.40, both well above the consensus estimate of $10.52.

To be sure, not even Amex expects smooth sailing, and just like all US banks announced two weeks ago, the company set aside $1.03 billion in provisions for souring loans after net charge-offs rose; the provisions depressed on profit, which dropped 9% to $1.57 billion, or $2.07 a share.

At the same time, expenses increased as AmEx spent more on compensation and cardmember rewards, with total costs coming in at $11.3 billion. That compares with the $11 billion average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

AmEx is also tightening up underwriting as it prepares for any economic weakening that may come. Those actions can include lowering existing cardholders’ credit lines and also raising the bar for new cardholders looking to get an AmEx card for the first time. There was also a potential red flag: the company is seeing a slight pullback by small business cardholders, including a drop in spending on digital ads on Facebook and Google.

And speaking of weakening, here is the downside scenario contemplated by American Express: it sees the unemployment rate rising to 8% and GDP tumbling as much as 7%.

To offset some of the profit decline, AmEx has been aggressively going after more customers, tweaking rewards on many of its cards which helped it add millions of new cardholders last year. The credit-card giant has also benefited from the rebound in travel and dining.

“We’re not oblivious to all the economic uncertainty,” Chief Financial Officer Jeff Campbell said in an interview. But “our business is not representative of every sector of the economy. We run the company based on what we see.”

Needless to say, what AXP is seeing must make it – and its shareholders – happy because while DFS shares were hammered on earnings, AXP shares soared as much as 11%, the biggest intraday surge since November 2020.

The company’s presentation is below (pdf link).

Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 12:07

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/1P5YdVx Tyler Durden

Biden Jokes About People Thinking He’s “Stupid” Then Makes Another Stupid Verbal Gaffe

Biden Jokes About People Thinking He’s “Stupid” Then Makes Another Stupid Verbal Gaffe

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

During an event in Springfield, Virginia, Joe Biden joked about people thinking he was “stupid” before making yet another embarrassing verbal gaffe.

The president made the remarks while addressing the state of the economy.

“I uh, I said that, uh, when I was seeking the nomination I said, ‘Take a seat, everybody!’ and there wasn’t a single chair in the place,” joked the 80-year-old.

“They said, ‘That Biden really is stupid, he really doesn’t know a…” he added.

Biden then asked “where’s Doug?” in reference to Rep. Don Beyer, but had difficulty finding him (presumably because he’s not called Doug).

During the same speech, Biden then rather awkwardly proved once again why people have questioned his cognitive ability.

“No president added more to the debt in four years than my president,” Biden told the crowd at the Steamfitters Local 602 union hall.

“I-I misspoke. Twenty-five percent of our country’s entire debt,” he quickly corrected himself.

Oh dear.

Last year, we highlighted the comments of former White House physician Ronny Jackson, who said that Joe Biden “won’t finish his term” because “his mind is too far gone.”

Speculation has been raging for a long time that prominent Democrats are trying to prevent Biden from running again in 2024.

During a discussion on his podcast earlier this month, Joe Rogan suggested the latest scandals surrounding Joe Biden indicated that top Democrats are “trying to get rid of him.”

Biden would be in his mid-80’s by the time he left the White House if he won again in 2024.

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Tyler Durden
Fri, 01/27/2023 – 11:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/iNBCtrg Tyler Durden