Russia Can Keep Funding Ukraine War At Least Another Year Despite Sanctions: Intel Leaks

More US intelligence documents from the trove of accused Pentagon leaker Jack Teixeira point to continued failing US policy related to the Ukraine war, particularly in regards to far-reaching US sanctions which Biden policymakers hoped would blunt the Russian war machine. 

The classified assessments examined by The Washington Post show that US intelligence believed Russian can continue funding its war efforts for at least another year. While it should be obvious to anyone that Moscow hasn’t been deterred by economic sanctions or isolation from the West, this provides crystal clear confirmation. 

“Moscow is relying on increased corporate taxes, its sovereign wealth fund, increased imports and businesses adaptability to help mitigate economic pressures,” one assessment reads. WaPo says that markings on the documents suggest the info was gained via intercepted communications. 

The Post comments of the crucial context as follows: 

While some of Russia’s economic elites might not agree with the country’s course in Ukraine, and sanctions have hurt their businesses, they are unlikely to withdraw support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to an assessment that appears to date from early March.

According to more from the document: 

Those elites “are likely to persist in upholding the Kremlin’s objectives in Ukraine” and in “helping Moscow circumvent sanctions,” the leaked assessment finds. 

A key purpose of the sanctions from Washington’s point of view was to impose such a cost and negative trickle-down effect on the Russian populace – perhaps leading to riots and destabilization – that it would force Kremlin decision-makers to change course and wind down the invasion. But this hasn’t happened.

Just after the February 2020 invasion of Ukraine President Biden had mockingly said Russia’s currency would be reduced to “rubble.” Of course, the opposite happened within a month after those comments. The ruble had also recovered to its pre-conflict levels against the USD by mid-April of 2022.

Also greatly aiding in Russia’s weathering the sanctions-storm has been soaring oil revenue via new markets opening up and expanding, in Asia particularly.