Continuing Jobless Claims Jump To Highest Since May

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose from 200k last week to 210k (slightly above expectations), but still remains at or near record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears the “Ohio Fraud” adjustment is complete…

Source: Bloomberg

With Oregon and New York seeing the biggest increase in claims and Tennessee and Michigan seeing the largest decline in jobless claims…

Continuing Claims. however, rose for the 4th straight week to its highest since May at 1.79mm (above 1.7 mm for 3 straight weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

And it’s going to get worse, as Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between now and March.

We’re gonna need more seasonal adjustments.