Jobless Claims Data Surges (And Falls) With Seasonal Hiring At Decade Lows

After an ugly JOLTs print and disappointing ADP report, the headline jobless claims data comes to the rescue of the ‘goldilocks’ narrative.

Initial claims (SA) were flat at 220k (but on a NSA basis surged)…

Driven by a plunge in California…

Continuing claims (SA) tumbled back below 1.9mm (but on a NSA basis surged)…

But, but, but, it’s seasonals we hear you cry.

True…

But… for both initial claims and continuing claims, the last week’s surge is ‘early’ and large…

In another sign of a cooling labor market, the executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said US-based employers announced 45,510 job cuts in November, which was lower than the same month a year ago but a 24% increase from October. Seasonal hiring is also at its lowest level for this point in the year in a decade, according to a separate report.

“The job market is loosening, and employers are not as quick to hire,” Senior Vice President Andrew Challenger said in a statement.

“The labor market appears to be stabilizing with a more normal churn, though we expect to continue to see layoffs going into the new year.”

Is it different this year? …is a year-end firing spree lost in the seasonals?