US Manufacturing Sector Slump Accelerates In December: Orders Down, Prices Up

US Manufacturing saw only two months in 2023 that were not in contraction and ended on a decidedly poor note with the final December print dropping to 47.9 (from 48.2 flash and 49.4 prior).

Source: Bloomberg

Across the board it was ugly with:

• Renewed contraction in output as orders fall at sharper pace

• Rates of inflation pick up

• Joint-fastest drop in employment since June 2020

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“US manufacturers ended the year on a sour note, according to S&P Global’s PMI survey. Output fell at the fastest rate for six months as the recent order book decline intensified. Manufacturing will therefore likely have acted as a drag on the economy in the fourth quarter.

“The slowdown is spreading to the labor market. Payrolls were cut for a third month running as increasing numbers of firms grew concerned about the development of excess operating capacity. The fourth quarter has consequently seen factories reduce employment at a pace not seen since 2009 barring only the early pandemic lockdown months.

“With factories also cutting back sharply on their purchases of inputs in December, suppliers were also less busy on average, again hinting at the development of spare capacity.

“While there was some uplift in the rate of both raw material and factory gate selling price inflation, firms’ costs notably continued to rise at a pace below the survey’s long-run average to hint at historically subdued industrial price pressures.

“Given current order book trends, the overall picture from the survey is one of supply exceeding demand for many goods, which points to downside risks to production, employment and prices as we head into 2024. Potential supply chain disruptions need to be monitored, however, notably in terms of shipping, as the survey has clearly demonstrated in the past how supply chain tensions quickly feed through to higher prices.”

Not exactly the ‘goldilocks’ soft-landing every one is hoping for.