Trump’s Record-Setting New Hampshire Win Solidifies Path Forward

Former President Donald Trump had a historic turnout for Tuesday’s New Hampshire Republican primary on Tuesday. With more than 300,000 votes cast  in the purple state as of early Wednesday vs. the previous high-watermark of 287,000 in 2016, Trump’s decisive victory over Nikki Haley has made his path forward all the more clear.

Even the NY Times had to admit: “The exceptionally high turnout on Tuesday underscores the electrifying effect Mr. Trump has on the electorate, driving loyal supporters and determined opposition to the polls as his divisive style of politics both inspires and revolts.”

Trump’s command of the Republican ticket is even more impressive when you consider that Democrats were turning out in droves for Haley in order to vote against the former president.

“He’s picking right up where he left off in 2020, which saw the highest turnout in generations,” said Tom Bonier, a senior adviser to TargetSmart, a Democratic data clearinghouse, in a statement to the Times. “New Hampshire was the first test of how that might have evolved, as an open primary and an opponent providing an outlet for anti-Trump voters to register their opposition.”

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And despite calls for Nikki Haley to drop out after last night’s drubbing, Haley gave a tone-deaf ‘victory’ speech, and vowed to fight on, arguing that “this race is far from over.”

That said, the Times‘ Dealbook reports that a number of Haley supporters are reportedly heading for the exits.

An unnamed Republican fund-raiser told CNBC’s Brian Schwartz that one of her donors was done with her campaign, declaring it over.

Meanwhile, Puck’s Teddy Schleifer wrote on the social media platform X that the casino magnate Steve Wynn and the financier John Paulson attended Trump’s New Hampshire victory party last night. And Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who appeared at the event, told Schleifer that he expected the Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, his biggest backer before Scott dropped out of the primary race, to support Trump as well. -Dealbook

Trump has argued that Haley is hurting the party’s chances in the fall by forcing him to engage in an extended nomination process.

“If she doesn’t drop out, we have to waste money instead of spending it on Biden, which is our focus,” he told Fox News shortly after the New Hampshire race was called.

Goldman, meanwhile, noted that the results “further reduce the odds of a momentum-driven surprise, including South Carolina – the next major nomination contest.”

“While Haley’s results were slightly stronger than polling suggested (roughly 11pp vs. 19pp margin), the outcome is unlikely to be enough to prolong uncertainty in the nomination process.”

Traditional party donors from Wall Street, who loathe Mr. Trump, poured money into Ms. Haley’s super PAC. And in New Hampshire, she seemed to have a political environment more hospitable than in Iowa, with a voting base that is less religious and more educated.

But on Tuesday, New Hampshire Republicans rejected Ms. Haley and her attempt to revive the old guard. -NYT

And when it comes to the anticipated Trump-Biden rematch, things are looking good for The Don.

Here’s a calendar of what’s to come over the next 12 months: