Student Loan Borrowers Stage A “Massive Student Debt Strike”

Student Loan Borrowers Stage A “Massive Student Debt Strike”

Authored by Sam Bourgi via CreditNews.com,

It’s been three months since the federal government resumed student loan payments, but many borrowers have refused to pay a single penny…

Activists say borrowers have staged a “massive student debt strike” as they await progress—any progress—on the White House’s student loan forgiveness program.

“Faced with the impossible choice of feeding their kids, keeping a roof over their head, or throwing an average of $400 a month into the Department of Education incinerator, borrowers are rightly choosing to keep themselves and their families financially afloat,” said Astra Taylor, co-founder of Debt Collective, a union advocating on behalf of debtors.

According to the Department of Education, 22 million borrowers had payments due in October but only 13 million settled their bills.

That means 40% of borrowers failed to make payments.

Creditnews reported in September that the resumption of student loan payments would hit American families hard, but very few expected four out of ten borrowers to miss payments. Before the pandemic, about one-quarter of student loan borrowers were dodging payments.

Some experts think the transition back to loan repayment after more than three years of forbearance will be bumpy. As it turns out, students aren’t the only ones to blame.

What has changed since the pandemic?

Student loans went into forbearance in March 2020 just as Covid-era lockdowns forced millions out of work. Over that period, Americans grew accustomed to not paying back their loans and used the money to tackle other expenses like rent or grocery bills.

Reallocating up to $500 a month to student loan payments was always going to be difficult—especially with high inflation and elevated borrowing costs.

But according to Persis Yu, deputy executive director at the Student Borrower Protection Center, it wasn’t just borrowers who were unprepared for the October shock.

“Neither borrowers nor the student loan system were prepared to resume repayment,” Yu told CNBC.

“Servicers are overwhelmed and are failing to help struggling borrowers navigate the options that are available to them,” she said.

Carolina Rodriguez of the nonprofit Education Debt Consumer Assistance Program agrees. “Servicers are having a very hard time getting people back into repayment,” she said.

Student loan forgiveness: Reality or pipe dream?

Many student loan borrowers are waiting for debt relief promised to them by the Biden administration, but those efforts have hit a major snag.

President Biden initially proposed a $400 billion bailout program that would erase up to $20,000 in federal debt for roughly 40 million borrowers. The Supreme Court struck down the plan in June, claiming that the president overstepped his authority.

Since then, the Department of Education has been working with a panel of experts to negotiate a watered-down version of the program. But even they have failed to reach a consensus so far.

An Education Department spokesperson said the panel is on track to submit a new student debt relief proposal by May, but there’s no guarantee that it’ll get passed.

2024 is an election year, and student loan forgiveness is a hotly debated issue, with several conservative lawmakers promising to block any attempts to erase student loans with taxpayer dollars.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 21:00

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These Are The 20 Most Popular Neighborhoods For Potential US Homebuyers

These Are The 20 Most Popular Neighborhoods For Potential US Homebuyers

Location, location, location…

This phrase has been a real estate mantra since time immemorial, and rightly so. Finding the right home is impossible without finding the right neighborhood.

As Visual Capitalist’s Freny Fernandes details below, thousands of U.S. homebuyers scout online real estate marketplaces daily, searching for the right home. But these sites also attract window shoppers curious about the country’s nicest neighborhoods and luxurious homes.

And so, HouseFresh has compiled the top 20 most popular neighborhoods by online interest, based on the search history of Zillow users.

Methodology

This study assessed sales listings from the 100 most populous cities in the U.S.

It noted the neighborhood and page views for every house, townhome, apartment, and condo, and the number of days it had been listed on the website to calculate the average page views per day.

Average daily views across each neighborhood were then combined and ranked to reveal the top 20 neighborhoods. Neighborhoods with fewer than 10 listings were excluded from the rankings.

America’s Most Popular Neighborhoods by Search Interest

In the post-pandemic world, surging housing prices have been a critical concern for American homebuyers.

That’s likely why the most popular neighborhood—Northeast Dallas, which is highly sought-after for being in a strong market with lots of options in both size and affordability—can outperform more famous neighborhoods in viewing interest.

Here are how different neighborhoods in the U.S. stacked up:

Other strong cities for both first-time and second-time home buyers performed well. With affordable house values, sunny skies, large recreation spaces, and a dry climate, Phoenix had the strongest interest for a single city with three neighborhoods in the top 10: Camelback East, North Mountain, and Deer Valley.

On the other end of the spectrum were some of the nation’s most valuable real estate markets. Los Angeles’ celebrity hub of Hollywood Hills had the highest average price per listing at $2.3 million, and was the second-most popular neighborhood in average daily views. Listings in New York’s affluent Upper East Side also drew in crowds and was the 5th most viewed neighborhood.

The Zillow data has revealed that a neighborhood’s popularity varies depending on the viewer. While some look for affordable neighborhoods with big houses and parks, others have their eyes on the glamor of a vibrant city, irrespective of the cost.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 20:25

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Jack Smith Disputes Trump’s Claims In Appeals Court

Jack Smith Disputes Trump’s Claims In Appeals Court

Authored by Allen Zhong via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Special Counsel Jack Smith Saturday urged the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to reject President Donald Trump’s immunity and double-jeopardy claim that he will be retried for similar charges on which he has already been acquitted.

(Left) Special Counsel Jack Smith delivers remarks in Washington on Aug. 1, 2023. (Right) Former President Donald Trump attends his trial in New York State Supreme Court in New York City on Dec. 7, 2023. (Drew Angerer, David Dee Delgado/Getty Images)

President Trump is not entitled to immunity in the election case and the criminal charges against him also didn’t violate the principle of double jeopardy, the prosecutors argued.

Immunity for a U.S. president applies to civil liability only and not criminal, the special counsel’s office claimed.

The defendant, a former President, does not enjoy immunity from federal prosecution for the offenses charged in this case. Under separation-of-powers analysis, the President’s unique constitutional status provides immunity from civil liability for official conduct … but it does not render a former President immune from criminal liability when charged with violations of generally applicable federal criminal statutes,” reads the filing.

Meanwhile, although President Trump has been acquitted after being impeached over an event connected to Jan. 6, the special counsel’s office argued that its criminal charges filed against him don’t violate the principle of double jeopardy because the only remedies in an impeachment proceeding are removal from the office and disqualification. Mr. Smith argued those likely don’t meet the term “jeopardy.”

Even if President Trump was put into jeopardy during the impeachment proceeding, the indictment charges filed by his office are different from what President Trump was impeached for, the special counsel argued.

Accordingly, Mr. Smith asked the appeal court to reject President Trump’s immunity and double-jeopardy defenses and affirm the district court’s ruling.

Mr. Smith also pushed the court to rule on this promptly.

“For the foregoing reasons, the Court should affirm the district court’s order denying the defendant’s motions to dismiss on Presidential-immunity and double-jeopardy grounds,” the prosecutors wrote. “The Government respectfully requests the Court to issue the mandate five days after the entry of judgment. Such an approach would appropriately require any party seeking further review to do so promptly.”

Background

Judge Tanya Chutkan for the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled on Dec. 1 that President Trump is not immune from prosecution in the government’s election interference case.

In her ruling, Judge Chutkan said the office of the president “does not confer a lifelong ‘get-out-of-jail-free’ pass.”

“Former Presidents enjoy no special conditions on their federal criminal liability,” she wrote. “Defendant may be subject to federal investigation, indictment, prosecution, conviction, and punishment for any criminal acts undertaken while in office.”

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan in a file photo. (Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts via AP)

The former president appealed the ruling in the D.C. Circuit Court, which agreed to expedite the case per a request from the special prosecutor’s office.

According to the order, President Trump’s opening brief was due by Dec. 23. The order emphasized that issues and arguments should be raised in the opening brief, discouraging new points in the reply brief for consideration.

The court ordinarily will not consider issues and arguments raised for the first time in the reply brief,” reads the order.

This decision follows statements by the attorneys representing President Trump accusing the special counsel’s office of election interference in a recent appeals court filing after Mr. Smith requested to expedite the appeal so that the case can go to trial on March 4, 2024. March 4 is one day before Super Tuesday, the U.S. presidential primary election day.

District Judge Chutkan agreed to pause the case in the district court while the appeal is pending.

“The court agrees with both parties that Defendant’s appeal automatically stays any further proceedings that would move this case towards trial or impose additional burdens of litigation on Defendant,” she wrote. “The court hereby stays the deadlines and proceedings scheduled by its Pretrial Order.”

She clarified that this would pause the pretrial deadlines, not vacate them.

Jack Smith Accused of Rushing Trial

In an apparent push for a rushed trial in the Trump case, the special counsel asked the D.C. Circuit Court and the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) to rule on President Trump’s claims of presidential immunity and double jeopardy.

The circuit court agreed to act swiftly, while the SCOTUS rejected Mr. Smith’s request for it to hear the case ahead of proceedings in the circuit court, which was widely regarded as a victory for President Trump.

The petition for a writ of certiorari before judgment is denied,” the highest U.S. court ruled on Dec. 22.

President Trump’s attorneys have accused the special counsel’s office of pushing to rush the case through the courts.

“The only coherent principle that emerges from the prosecution’s filings is based on strategic gamesmanship rather than the law: On behalf of the Biden Administration, the prosecution will do everything that it can to rush to an unconstitutional and fundamentally unfair trial to try to prevent President Trump from winning the 2024 election, which he is currently leading,” President Trump’s attorneys wrote in a court filing.

The defense team has already accused the prosecution of being politically motivated in multiple court filings, echoing President Trump’s public speeches claiming that the indictments against him have come at the behest of President Joe Biden, his chief political rival for reelection.

Catherine Yang, Caden Pearson, and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 19:50

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Ex-CIA Officer Says Ukraine A ‘Sinking Ship’ After NYT Highlights Recruitment Crisis

Ex-CIA Officer Says Ukraine A ‘Sinking Ship’ After NYT Highlights Recruitment Crisis

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky issued a customary speech to the nation wherein he advanced a vision of optimism even as the already war-ravaged country is under Russian bombs and drones. Putin has said Monday that these aerial operations will “intensify”. 

Zelensky vowed to see Ukraine transformed into an arms production powerhouse, saying in the Sunday televised speech that “next year, the enemy will feel the wrath of domestic production.”

“Our weapons, our equipment, artillery, our shells, our drones, our naval ‘greetings’ to the enemy and at least a million Ukrainian FPV drones,” he added. “All of which we will generously use… On land, in the sky, and, of course, at sea.”

Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP

Speaking of the West-sponsored pilot training program, which is happening in northern Europe and in America, Zelensky claimed that Ukrainian trainees are “already mastering” F-16 jets and that they’ll “definitely” soon be seen in Ukraine’s skies to that “our enemies can certainly see what our real wrath is.”

Friday witnessed one of the largest missile and drone strikes carried out by Russian forces since the war began, but in the wake of this Zelensky said that no matter how many “the enemy” launches, Ukrainians “will still rise.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 19:15

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The Year That Expertise Collapsed

The Year That Expertise Collapsed

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

Getting sick and getting well is part of the human experience at all times in all places. As with other phenomena of human existence, that suggests there is a great deal of embedded knowledge on the topic woven into the fabric of our lives. We aren’t born knowing but we come to know: from our moms and dads, experience of siblings and others, from our own experience, and from medical professionals who deal with the problem daily.

In a healthy and functioning society, the path toward maintaining personal and public health becomes embedded in the cultural firmament, just like manners, belief systems, and value preferences.

It’s not necessary that we think about it constantly; instead it becomes a habit, with much of the knowledge tacit; that is, deployed daily but rarely with full cognizance.

We could know for certain that there had been a change in the matrix in March 2020 because, seemingly out of nowhere, all of this knowledge was deemed wrong.

A new gaggle of experts was in charge, one day to the next. Suddenly, they were everywhere. They were on TV, quoted by all the newspapers, amplified on social media, and on the phone constantly with local officials instructing them on how they must shut down the schools, businesses, playgrounds, churches, and civic gatherings.

The message was always the same. This time is completely different from anything in our experience or in any previous experience. This time we must adopt a totally new and completely untested paradigm. It comes from models that high-level scientists have deemed correct. It comes from labs. It comes from “germ games” of which none of us are part. If we dare to reject the new teachings for the old, we are doing it wrong. We are the malicious ones. We deserve ridicule, cancellation, silencing, exclusion, and worse.

It felt like a coup d’état of sorts. It certainly was an intellectual coup. All wisdom of the past, even that known by public health only months earlier, was deleted from public spaces. Dissent was silenced. Corporate media was absolutely united in celebrating the greatness of people like Fauci, who spoke in strangely circuitous ways that contradicted everything we thought we knew.

It was exceedingly strange because the people we thought might have stood up to the flash imposition of tyranny somehow vanished. We could hardly meet with others at all, if only to share intuitions that something was wrong. “Social distancing” was more than a method to “slow the spread;” it amounted to comprehensive control of the public mind too.

The experts instructing us spoke with astonishing certainty about precisely how society should be managed in a pandemic. There were scientific papers, tens of thousands of them, and the storm of credentials was everywhere and out of control. Unless you had a university or lab affiliation and unless you had multiple high-level degrees attached to your name, you could not get a hearing. Folk wisdom was out of the question, even basic things like “sun and outdoors are good for respiratory infections.” Even popular understanding of natural immunity came in for hard ridicule.

Later it turned out that even top credentialed experts would not be taken seriously if they had the wrong views. This is when the racket became incredibly obvious. It was never really about genuine knowledge. It was about compliance and echoing the approved line. It’s astonishing how many people went along, even with the stupidest of the mandates, such as the distancing stickers everywhere, the ubiquity of Plexiglas, and the dirty masks on every face which were somehow believed to keep people healthy.

Once the contrary studies started coming out, we would share them and get shouted down. The comment sections of the studies started to be raided by partisan experts who would hone in on small issues and problems and demand and obtain takedowns. Then the contrarian expert would get doxxed, his dean notified, and the faculty turned against the person, lest the department risk funding from Big Pharma or Fauci in the future.

All the while, we kept thinking that there must be some rationale behind all this madness. It never emerged. It was all intimidation and belligerence and nothing more—arbitrary diktat by big shots who were pretending the entire time.

The lockdowners and shot mandators were never intellectually serious people. They never much thought about the implications or ramifications of what they were doing. They were just wrecking things mostly for pecuniary gain, job protection, and career advancement, plus it was fun to be in charge. It’s not much more complicated than that.

In other words, we’ve gradually come to realize that our worst fears were true. All these experts were and are fakes. There have been some hints along the way, such as when North Carolina Health Director Mandy Cohen (now head of the CDC) reported that she and her colleagues were burning up the phone lines to decide whether people should be allowed to participate in sports.

“She was like, are you gonna let them have professional football?” she said. “And I was like, no. And she’s like, OK neither are we.”

Another candid moment came five months ago, only recently unearthed by X (formerly Twitter) when NIH head Francis Collins admitted that he and his colleagues attached “zero value” to whether and to what extent they were disrupting lives, wrecking the economy, and destroying education for kids.

He actually said this.

As it turns out, these experts who ruled our lives, and still do to a great extent, were never what they claimed to be, and never actually possessed knowledge that was superior to what existed within the cultural firmament of society. Instead, all they really had was power and a grand opportunity to play dictator.

It’s astonishing, truly, and worthy of deep study, when you consider the extent to which and for how long this class of people were able to maintain the illusion of consensus within their ranks.

They bamboozled the media all over the world. They tricked vast swaths of the population.

They bent all social media algorithms to reflect their views and priorities.

One explanation comes down to the money trail.

That’s a powerful explanation. But it is not the whole of it. Behind the illusion was a terrifying intellectual isolation in which all these people found themselves. They never really encountered people who disagreed. Indeed, part of the way these people had come to conceive of their jobs was to master the art of knowing what to think and when and how. It’s part of the job training to enter the class of experts: mastering the skill of echoing the opinions of others.

Discovering this to be true is alarming for anyone who holds to older ideals of how intellectual society should conduct itself. We like to imagine that there is a constant clash of ideas, a burning desire to get to the truth, a love of knowledge and data, a passion for gaining a better understanding. That requires, above all else, an openness of mind and a willingness to listen. All of this was overtly and explicitly shut down in March 2020 but it was made easier because all the mechanisms were already in place.

One of the best books of our time is Tom Harrington’s “The Treason of the Experts,” published by Brownstone. There is simply not in the present era a more insightful investigation and deconstruction of the sociological sickness of the expert class. Every page is on fire with insight and observation about the intellectual juntas that attempt to rule the public mind in today’s world. It’s a terrifying look at how wildly wrong everything has gone in the world of ideas. A great follow-up volume is Ramesh Thakur’s “Our Enemy, the Government,” which reveals all the ways in which the new scientists who were ruling the world weren’t scientific at all.

Brownstone was born in the midst of the worst of this world. We set out to create something different, not a bubble of ideological/partisan attachment or an enforcement organ of the proper way to think about all issues. Instead, we sought to become a genuine society of thinkers united in a principled attachment to freedom but hugely diverse in specialization and philosophical outlook. It’s one of the few centers where there is genuine interdisciplinary engagement and openness to new perspectives and outlook. All of this is essential to the life of the mind and yet nearly absent in academia, media, and government today.

We’ve put together a fascinating model for retreats. We choose a comfortable venue where the food and drink are provided and the living quarters are excellent, and bring together 40 or so top experts to present a set of ideas to the whole group. Each speaker gets 15 minutes and that is followed by 15 minutes of engagement from everyone present. Then we go to the next speaker. This goes on all day and the evenings are spent in casual conversation. As the organizer, Brownstone does not pick topics or speakers but rather allows the flow of ideas to emerge organically. This goes on for two and a half days. There is no set agenda, no mandated takeaways, no required action items. There is only unconstrained idea generation and sharing.

There is a reason why there is such a clamor to attend. It’s the creation of something that all these wonderful people—each person a dissident in his own field—had hoped to encounter in professional life but the reality was always elusive. It’s only three days so hardly Ancient Greece or Vienna in the interwar years but it is an excellent start, and hugely productive and uplifting. It’s amazing what can happen when you combine intelligence, erudition, open minds, and sincere sharing of ideas. From the point of view of government, huge corporations, academia, and all the architects of today’s world of ideas, this is precisely what they do not want.

The difference between 2023 and, say, five years ago, is that the expertise racket is now out in the open. Vast swaths of society decided to trust the experts for a time. They deployed every power of the state, along with all affiliated institutions in the pseudo-private sector, to browbeat and manipulate the people into panicked compliance with preposterous antics that never had any hope of mitigating disease.

Look where that got us. The experts have been fully discredited. Is it any wonder that ever more people are skeptical of the same gang’s claims about climate change, diversity, immigration, inflation, education, gender transitions, or anything else pushed today by elite minds?

Mass compliance has been replaced by mass incredulity.

Trust will not likely return in our lifetimes.

There is, further, a reason why hardly anyone is surprised that the president of Harvard stands accused of rampant plagiarism or that election officials are deploying sneaky forms of lawfare to keep political renegades off the ballot or that money launderers for the administrative state are getting away with rampant fraud. Graft, kickbacks, bribery, misappropriation, nepotism, favoritism, and outright corruption rule the day in all elite circles.

In a few weeks, we are going to hear from Anthony Fauci, who will be grilled by a House of Representatives committee on exactly how he claimed to be so sure that there was no lab leak stemming from gain-of-function research being done at a U.S.-baked lab in Wuhan. We’ll see how much attention this testimony gets but, truly, does anyone really believe that he is going to be honest and forthcoming? It is pretty much a consensus these days that he has been up to no good. If he is “the science,” science itself is in grave trouble.

What a contrast to just a few years ago when Fauci-themed shirts and coffee mugs were big-selling items. He claimed to be the science, and science did rally behind him as if he had all the answers, even though what he advocated contradicted every bit of common wisdom that has always been practiced in every civilized society.

Three years ago, the expert class went out on the farthest limb one can imagine, daring to replace all social knowledge and embedded cultural experience with their off-the-cuff rationalism and scientistic razzmatazz that ended up serving the industrial interests of large-scale exploiters in tech, media, and pharma. We live in the midst of the rubble they created. It’s no wonder they have been completely discredited.

To replace them—and this is a long-term strategy and one that unfolds gradually with bold efforts such as that undertaken by Brownstone Institute—we need a new and serious effort to rebuild serious thought based on honesty, sincere engagement across ideological lines, and a genuine commitment to truth and freedom. We have that opportunity right now, and we dare not decline to take up the task with every sense of urgency and passion. As always, your support of our work is greatly appreciated.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 18:40

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USS Ford Aircraft Carrier Returning Home After Extended Deployment Protecting Israel

USS Ford Aircraft Carrier Returning Home After Extended Deployment Protecting Israel

The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group is heading home from the Mediterranean Sea, according to a Monday announcement by the US Navy.

It had patrolled there, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean, for months of additional, extended duty in order to provide protection for Israel and be on the ready for potential escalation, given persistent exchange of fire between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah too.

The Navy said the USS Ford’s presence will now be replaced by the Bataan amphibious ready group, which has 2,000 Marines onboard. This ready group includes the USS Bataan, and the USS Mesa Verde and the USS Carter Hall – which are currently transiting the Red Sea, making ready to enter the Mediterranean. 

US Navy image

A US 6th Fleet message said the Ford will sail for home “in the coming days.” The shift could be the result of Israel newly announcing it is about to enter the “next phase” of its Gaza operations

According to fresh reporting in The New York Times:

The Israeli military announced on Monday that it will begin withdrawing several thousand troops from Gaza at least temporarily, in what would be the most significant publicly announced pullback since the war began.

The military cited a growing toll on the Israeli economy following nearly three months of wartime mobilization with little end in sight to the fighting. Israel had been considering scaling back its operations, and the United States has been prodding it to do so more quickly as the death toll in Gaza continues to rise. More than 20,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the beginning of the war, according to local health authorities.

Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military spokesman, emphasized that the move to demobilize some soldiers did not indicate any compromise on Israel’s intention to continue fighting, and he did not mention the American requests to scale back. He indicated that some will be called back to service in the coming year. Still, the fighting remains intense across Gaza.

There’s been recent White House pressure on Tel Aviv to dial down the intensity of the fighting amid the soaring Palestinian civilian death toll, but also as the Netanyahu governing coalition faces growing anger domestically over how it has handled the war and hostage situation especially. 

The Associated Press meanwhile reviews of the US military build-up in regional waters in the wake of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack as follows: “Since it was extended in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Ford and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier have been part of a two-carrier presence bracketing the Israel-Hamas war, underscoring U.S. concerns that the conflict will widen.” The report further notes, “The Eisenhower has recently patrolled near the Gulf of Aden, at the mouth of the Red Sea waterway, where so many commercial vessels have come under attack in recent weeks.”

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 18:05

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Supreme Court’s John Roberts Urges “Caution” On Using Artificial Intelligence

Supreme Court’s John Roberts Urges “Caution” On Using Artificial Intelligence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already changing the legal field and will have a major impact in the future, U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts said in his year-end report for 2023.

AI is already enabling people who cannot afford lawyers to find answers to questions such as how to fill out court forms, Justice Roberts said. He said AI can “increase access to justice” with tools that “have the welcome potential to smooth out any mismatch between available resources and urgent needs in our court system.”

“But any use of AI,” he added, “requires caution and humility” because it risks “dehumanizing the law.”

A growing number of lawyers have been using AI in their work, and several lawyers were sanctioned over the summer for including non-existent cases, put forth by AI, as citations in a brief. Some defendants have also said they or their lawyers erroneously used AI in building their cases.

There’s also concern about courts using AI in assessing key factors about people who are charged, such as flight risk, due to “potential bias,” with studies showing “human adjudications, for all of their flaws, are fairer than whatever the machine spits out,” Justice Roberts said.

In the report, addressed to the federal judiciary, he said that “machines cannot fully replace key actors in court,” bringing up how judges keep a close eye on the demeanor of defendants when handing down sentences.

“Nuance matters: Much can turn on a shaking hand, a quivering voice, a change of inflection, a bead of sweat, a moment’s hesitation, a fleeting break in eye contact,” he said.

“And most people still trust humans more than machines to perceive and draw the right inferences from these clues.”

AI applications do help advance just, speedy, and inexpensive resolutions to cases, which the federal system is directed to prioritize under federal rules, but as AI evolves, courts must take care in figuring out how AI can be properly used, the chief justice said. The Judicial Conference of the United States, which sets policy for the federal courts, will be involved in that calculus, he said.

“I am glad that they will be,” Justice Roberts wrote.

I predict that human judges will be around for a while. But with equal confidence I predict that judicial work—particularly at the trial level—will be significantly affected by AI. Those changes will involve not only how judges go about doing their job, but also how they understand the role that AI plays in the cases that come before them.”

A federal appeals court in November issued a proposed rule on requiring lawyers to sign papers saying they did not use AI programs for briefs, or that if they did, then the briefs were subsequently reviewed by a human.

The year-end reports go over “a major issue relevant to the whole federal court system,” Justice Roberts said. Before bringing up AI, he went over how the judiciary has changed over the years, including transitioning from pens to typewriters to computers.

Justice Roberts, 68, was appointed by former President George W. Bush and began serving on the nation’s top court in 2005. A Harvard Law School graduate, he was a lawyer for 14 years before becoming a federal judge.

The chief justice oversees the federal judiciary.

The year-end report did not touch on ethics concerns, which include recently reported free trips provided to several justices by wealthy Americans. Democrats have been pushing for more regulation of the Supreme Court. The nation’s top court adopted its first formal ethics code in November, but critics say more oversight is needed.

Justice Roberts, in his 2022 year-end report, called for more security for judges after attacks on several judges, while saying that Americans are free to disagree with rulings from the Supreme Court.

In the 2021 year-end report, the justice said federal judges should improve their adherence to ethics rules after more than 100 were caught violating a rule requiring recusal in cases in which they have a financial interest.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 17:30

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We Did It, Joe! Monthly Migrant Encounters Exceed 300,000 For First Time In US History

We Did It, Joe! Monthly Migrant Encounters Exceed 300,000 For First Time In US History

Happy New Year!

The Cloward-Pivening of America continues unabated, thanks to well-funded enemies of America and an impotent (and well-lobbied) legislature. On Monday, Fox News reported that a record 302,000 encounters with illegal migrants occurred in December, which marks 785,000 encounters since Oct. 1, according to a source within Customs and Border Patrol.

According to the report, there were ‘just’ 74,000 encounters in the same month of 2021.

The Biden administration, meanwhile, has been deliberately downplaying of the border situation – which they created with a virtual invitation for migrants to pour into the country, after striking down several Trump-era border protections on day one.

Fox News has also used drones to observe the scale of the border crisis, capturing footage of the mass movement of people from over 150 countries. These visuals, often underreported by other networks, present a stark reality: Border Patrol agents, significantly outnumbered, are struggling to manage the influx in key areas such as Eagle Pass, where daily crossings have reached alarming rates.

Beyond the immediate security concerns, the long-term economic and cultural impacts of such unchecked immigration are have come into mainstream focus. For starters, the cost of managing illegal immigration could surpass the expenses that would have been incurred by more stringent border measures, such as a border wall. There’s an increasing anxiety over the strain on American taxpayers, potential budgetary imbalances, and the broader cultural implications of integrating such a large number of people into the fabric of American society.

Last week, Elon Musk dropped a few redpills on X, showing people a chart of “the immense and growing size of illegal immigration” pushed by radical progressives in the White House that have flooded the nation with millions of migrants.

Musk commented on a post by X user “~~datahazard~~,” who said: “Since August, there are officially more arriving each month than there are children being born to American mothers. And these are just the official encounters — we don’t know how many avoided detection.”

Illegal immigrants outpacing US births reminds us of a comment from Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who stated at a recent debate that the “Great Replacement Theory is not some grand, right-wing conspiracy theory,” but rather a “basic statement of the Democratic Party’s platform.”

Can’t wait to see Biden’s about-face on this, followed by no actual changes, as the 2024 election heats up…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 16:55

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America The ________

America The ________

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Regardless of the fact that I mocked making “year-end” predictions (2023 Predictions) last week, it is a good time to think about the year ahead. As I struggled to put my thoughts in a coherent (or at least semi-coherent) framework, one thing kept popping into my head. Whether I was thinking about inflation, debt, taxes, supply chains, the global economy, war, markets, etc., one over-riding thought kept popping into my head, over and over: many things will boil down to how America acts, perceives itself, and is perceived by others.

Maybe that is the case every year, but it hasn’t resonated the way it does for me as we approach 2024. How we fill in the blank (in America the ______) will determine so many things this year. With over 330 million people, 50 states, and countless allies and enemies (and those in between) across the globe, America won’t likely be defined as any one thing. But how it is defined will play a crucial role in how the economy (domestic and global) and markets evolve over the course of the year.

In any case, how will the “blank” be filled in this year?

America the Divided

There are lots of ways for that “blank” to be filled in, but unfortunately, “divided” is high on my list. For years, issues no longer seem “grey” or “complicated.” There is an “easy” solution to every issue or problem. It just happens that one portion of the population thinks that the answer is one extreme, and another large segment of the population thinks that the “obvious” answer is the other extreme. There seems to be little ground for compromise or for addressing the pros and cons of each issue and thinking about optimal solutions.

As we head into an election year, that divisiveness seems to be getting more rather than less apparent. I went to ChatGPT to try to get some thoughts on the upcoming election. According to ChatGPT:

“Most Americans do not seem enthusiastic about a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. Public polling indicates a general dissatisfaction with both candidates.”

I am not sure how we have created a system that seems likely to create a rematch of an election that people really don’t want to see. Maybe that is just my impression, but it does seem to be supported. Problems that could be caused by increased “divisiveness” include:

  • Shutdowns in DC. Failure to Pay our debt (though I don’t think that is a 2024 issue given what was done with the Debt Ceiling in 2023). All problems for the economy and for our markets. I remain convinced that “something broke” this year after the debt ceiling and shutdown negotiations seemed even more intractable than usual. The NRSROs (colloquially known as rating agencies) highlighted the problems that are obvious to everyone about the trajectory of our debt and spending. The ratings actions aren’t a big deal in their own right, but they make it harder for people to ignore the obvious issues. We’ve discussed in past T-Reports that while Treasuries are still safe, they just don’t seem quite as safe as before (kind of like the concept of different orders of infinity). More theoretical than anything, but each future wave of doubt will push yields more than they did last year. If sentiment and positioning could take the 10-year to 5% this year, what will happen the next time the market fixates on this risk?

  • How our allies commit to us.

    • How NATO coalesced around the Russian invasion was nothing short of amazing. Any friction was put aside and a comprehensive, multinational effort was put into effect. That has been fraying at the edges and America’s commitment is being questioned by some (at least to anyone who spends time on social media).

    • Israel’s war with Hamas has an almost “Monday Morning Quarterback” type of feel. While I am not comparing arguing over whether a team should have gone for it on fourth down or not to the loss of lives, it seems slightly weird to me that so many people have such vocal opinions on how the war should be prosecuted. We were not the ones attacked. We are not the ones facing an enemy that is still capable and seems committed to launching similar attacks in the future if it is left as a viable force. This is an enemy that purposefully places civilians in harm’s way (against Geneva Convention rules) as a key component of their defense strategy. I do not know how this war should be prosecuted. What is right or wrong? But I suspect that at least some people in other countries will question whether the U.S. has done enough to control (or attempt to control) many of their actions.

    • It may well be more difficult over time for “allies” to commit to “us” as “we” become more divided internally.

  • Can our “Enemies” use this against us?

    • There was likely some amount of “meddling” with prior elections and there is without a doubt a lot of misinformation being spread by our adversaries to sway public opinion. With AI, it seems more than plausible that the social media “bots” will get better and better at getting that information distributed while being less and less obvious that they are “bots” and not people. Deepfakes and other technologies will only make it easier to spread misinformation. The realization that the nation so often seems to get quickly divided into two camps (apparently heavily influenced by social media) is likely to ramp up efforts by those who want to sway the population one way or the other (presumably by outside actors, but they could be domestic too).

As we enter 2024, I fear that America the Divided is the biggest risk that we all face and a lot of pressure will be exerted by various groups (domestic and international) to try to force this issue. The fact that this is an election year makes an already compelling target/opportunity even that much more attractive for those who wish to push us in this direction.

America the Great (Geopolitically)

If America the Divided is the biggest risk, let’s look at the potential for the “blank” to be filled in with Great, or Global Leaders, or something else indicating that America is helping to drive nations across the globe in a free, democratic, and legal direction.

Could we re-emerge as the nation that everyone literally has to follow? General (ret.) Spider Marks is adamant that the world is best when America leads from the front. There were some positive signs. America led the effort to get NATO support for Ukraine. The U.S. is leading the way to protect shipping in the Middle East. America is also a staunch supporter of Taiwan, which is crucial to the overall global support of Taiwan.

There are reasons to be optimistic, but some things really concern me:

From “Pariah State” to please produce more oil. I’m talking about Saudi Arabia here, not Venezuela. We did have leadership that claimed that they wanted to make the Saudis a “Pariah State,” but I don’t think that any leader ever specifically said that about Venezuela (though the sentiment seems to be there on that front too). “We” have turned a somewhat blind eye to Iran “allegedly” selling far more oil than they should be selling based on the sanctions in place. It may be difficult to “lead” when we’ve exposed our inflation fears as a weakness. My view is that we must do more to encourage a realistic plan to produce more than enough energy to be self-sufficient for decades to come, while building out a more sustainable energy ecosystem (both on the use and production side of the equation). Until we do that, our weakness may be exploited. While I’ve stuck to “energy” here, virtually everything we need in terms of rare earths and critical minerals could be substituted for energy (and the processing of them remains outside of our control).

We’ve kicked the can too far. Some of what is going on in the Middle East seems to be occurring because “we” collectively across the globe preferred “kicking the can” to facing truly difficult decisions. I am also increasingly convinced that the U.S. will rue the day that we accepted “One Country, Two Systems” as a viable policy! What the heck does that really mean? It is very complex, but we’ve seen the power of social media and its ability to trounce complexity. There are many “domains of war,” and increasingly social media is one of them (and one that we don’t seem as adept at as some of our adversaries). For some very good reasons, the U.S. doesn’t spread disinformation as the main example, but that doesn’t help us win.

There is a chance that America really re-emerges as THE global superpower, which would be great for the domestic economy and markets, and should spur growth globally. But America the Divided seems more likely to win.

America the Great (Economically)

I was also thinking of America the Clever, America the Ingenuity Leader (but that was too wordy), or even America the Creative.

Artificial Intelligence. While I like to think in terms of “more and more computing power, applied to more and more data” to drive analysis and decision making, I’ll stick with AI for now since it is all the rage.

  • The opportunities are immense, and the U.S. is a leader. Collectively our Geopolitical Intelligence Group, especially General (ret.) Groen, is involved in policy making and thinks that the U.S. is headed down a viable path. Protective but not overly restrictive.

  • The costs (especially in getting data into usable formats) may slow progress, but this trend that started in 2023 as a crucial investment theme will continue. If (or when) the efficiencies are realized, we could see all stocks trade at higher multiples. So far, the winning has been concentrated in the hands of the current providers (rather than the users), but that distribution should change if it can deliver on the promise.

  • Boundless creativity versus state sponsored programs. One of the big bets on AI will be whether a “bunch” of for-profit enterprises (people trying to create their own wealth) will outperform a heavily funded and very directed effort in countries like China. I’m willing to bet on creativity and ingenuity in that competition and that self-interest will beat state-interest. The funding is enormous, but it can be plodding.

Space. Another area of opportunity (and threats), which we will discuss in more detail in our next X-Report (early January).

  • Blockchain. In all likelihood, there will be so-called “spot” ETFs for Bitcoin in the U.S. by the end of the first quarter of 2024, if not sooner. The resurgence in price of these assets is helping attract attention, but even while cryptocurrencies languished, the development of tools and products using blockchain continued (less funded and in relative obscurity), but this could be an emerging sector of growth.

  • Biotechnology. Outside of my “comfort” zone, but for an area that held such promise from a science and investment standpoint during the height of ZIRP and FOMO, I still see a lot of promise in the science, at much cheaper valuations in most cases.

  • Semi-conductors. I applaud the efforts to build foundries domestically and attempts to own and control these crucial components of our daily life and future. If anything, more needs to be done to speed this along.

If the economy and markets are to do exceptionally next year, it will likely be due to the creativity, inventiveness, and even genius of engineers and developers!

I am concerned that the cost versus benefit equation may slow things down in the quarters ahead. The potential wave of IPOs and secondary offerings from growth companies could weigh on prices (it could be a lot of supply), but I think that whether it is this year or next year, betting on this makes sense!

America the Consumption Nation

I was thinking that this could also be America the Greedy, America the Credit Nation, or America the Irresponsible, but it is the start of the year, so I should at least start with a positive title for this section.

I expect that the American consumer will slow down, the job market will be less robust, widespread/large pay gains will be a thing of the past, and the “soft landing” crowd will be wrong. It might not be a “hard” landing, but look for the American consumer, who has done their “duty” above and beyond all expectations, to finally slow down. That will help yields, but not enough to keep stocks at or near their highs.

America the Divided Creator

My base case is that two main themes will drive the economy and markets this year. We will flip-flop between them. Whenever “Divided” is the word of the day (for an extended period), yields will be inclined to move higher, and stocks will trend down as companies delay decisions or make very tentative commitments due to too much uncertainty. Whenever everyone is chatting about “Creativity” (could be AI, Space, etc.), markets will do well.

I see no reason, sadly, why 2024 won’t be as challenging as 2023 was from a capital allocation standpoint (at least for those who don’t make a decision on January 1 and keep it for the year without having to justify themselves to anyone), but I do think that how America is defined will be a big driver. That will encompass (and influence) things like the Fed, inflation, supply chains, global relationships, etc.

Next week we can return to a more “granular” analysis, but at the start of the year, “going big” picture and thinking about America the ______ is a good way to frame your thoughts. I suspect that this will be an easy one to revisit as the year and the election progress!

I wish you all a happy and successful 2024 and thanks again for all of your help and support in 2023!

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 16:20

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Iran Dispatches Warship To Red Sea, Houthis Warn Of “Repercussions” After US Forces Kill Rebels During Maersk Ship Attack

Iran Dispatches Warship To Red Sea, Houthis Warn Of “Repercussions” After US Forces Kill Rebels During Maersk Ship Attack

Regional instability risks mount in the Red Sea following the Iran-backed Houthi attack on a Maersk container ship on Sunday. US Forces responded with attack helicopters that eliminated three small boats and ten rebels.

After the skirmish, a spokesperson for the Yemeni militia group warned of “consequences and repercussions” for the US aggression. 

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea confirmed on the Yemeni TV channel Al-Masirah that US forces killed ten of its fighters. 

“US enemy forces attacked three boats belonging to the Yemeni Naval Forces, which led to the martyrdom and the loss of ten people from the Naval Forces,” Sarea said.

The spokesman said its fighters were “performing their humanitarian and moral duty” to deter Israel-related commercial vessels from transiting the Red Sea “in solidarity and support for the Palestinian people.”

He said the US “bears the consequences” for attacking and killing ten of its fighters, adding that the “military movements in the Red Sea to protect Israeli ships will not prevent Yemen (Houthi militia) from performing its humanitarian duty in support of Palestine and Gaza.”

Perhaps even more problematically from a global escalation perspective, Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea.

The Alborz destroyer traversed the Bab El-Mandeb strait, a narrow choke point between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, on Monday, Iranian state media said, adding that Iran’s naval fleet has been operating in the area “to secure shipping lanes, repel pirates, among other purposes since 2009.”

The move appears to represent a clear challenge to the US-led maritime security force established last month to protect ships from attack in the region.

Earlier in the day, US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported it received a distress call from a Singapore-flagged Maersk container ship named “Hangzhou.” 

CENTCOM wrote on X that a missile hit Hangzhou in the Red Sea. 

CENTCOM said attack helicopters from the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and USS Gravely were quickly deployed and eliminated three small boats and Houthi militants.

What’s clear is that tensions across the Bab al-Mandab Strait are only worsening despite the Pentagon’s Operation Prosperity Guardian mission to shield commercial vessels from attacks in the Red Sea. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 01/01/2024 – 15:45

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