Month: February 2024

Horrible housing data and anecdotally awful manufacturing signals from Texas were the only macro of note as the world awaits an avalanche of FedSpeak and the latest core PCE print later in the week.

Rate-cut expectations continue to slide (June is now a 50-50 for the start and 2024 now pricing in only 3 cuts)…

Source: Bloomberg

Two ugly bond auctions (2Y and 5Y) helped spur Treasury yields higher (as we note that February’s damage has come amid huge supply and a record $153 BN corporate bond sales). Yields were up around 3bps across the curve, erasing much of Friday’s decline in yields (especially at the short-end)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin soared up above $54,500 today, the highest since early Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

As net inflows into BTC ETFs re-accelerated (and GBTC outflows slowed to a trickle)….

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also soared, getting within a tick or two of $3200, its highest since April 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Mag7 stocks continued to limp lower after NVDA’s exuberance last week…

Source: Bloomberg

But ‘most shorted’ stocks were aggressively squeezed up to pre-President’s Day highs today…

Source: Bloomberg

Which helped pull Small Caps up today and lead the pack as S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all faded into the red in the last hour…

The dollar was very quiet today once again ending practically unchanged for the second day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold closed marginally lower on the day, but bounced intraday to hold its 50DMA…

Source: Bloomberg

But oil surged, with WTI testing $78 intraday, erasing Friday’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, NVDA was only able to add a de minimum 0.6% today, losing momentum three times intraday and completing an inside day (lower high and higher low)…

Does make you wonder, eh?

Source: Bloomberg

Still, at least we have Bitcoin…

Authored by Jason Rantz via mynorthwest.com,

A Seattle comedy club canceled on four stand-up comedians after angry community activists complained, according to the comedians involved. The shows at Capitol Hill Comedy/Bar purportedly offended left-wing community activists and progressive comics. The news broke as comic Shane Gillis finally performed on and hosted NBC’s “Saturday Night Live,” following his termination before even appearing because activists feigned outrage at a politically incorrect bit.

Four comedians were scheduled to perform in Seattle throughout this year: Dave Smith, Luis J. Gomez, Jim Florentine, and Kurt Metzger. All are known for either being right of center or “unwoke.” The comedians say they received an email from the club co-owner and booker Jes Anderson, who is also a stand-up comic, saying the gigs had to be canceled. The decision came after “discussions with our team, investors, local comedians, and neighborhood advocacy groups,” according to an email posted by Florentine and Metzger that was sent to their manager.

“Capitol Hill is known for its progressive values, and we’ve received significant feedback expressing concerns about the alignment of these upcoming shows with the neighborhood’s ethos. This feedback includes concerns from local advocacy groups that are deeply embedded in our community and work towards upholding its values,” according to the email.

Anderson wrote that the cancelations were meant “to avoid any potential negative impact on both our club and the artists involved, as well as to maintain the harmony within our community.”

Seattle comedy club canceled shows to appease ‘super woke progressive’ Seattle activists

Gomez, who was slated to perform in May and June, took the cancelations in stride. In his recent podcast, Gomez said Anderson has the right to cancel appearances and credits her for being respectful in the email. Still, it was a questionable decision.

“Are they idiots for booking us and then unbooking us? Yes, it’s a dumb move. Is my former agent an idiot for booking me at a super woke progressive venue that like the entire lineup is like… blue haired… freaks?” Gomez said.

Gomez suspects part of the issue was that “young, jealous” local comics who play the venue were upset that he and the others were coming to town. He says it’s easy to find their offensive comedy online.

“That’s what happens when comics don’t have anything going on. They just look for drama,” he said. “So (Anderson) found drama within the comedy space there and she was like, ‘Alright, I think they’re great, but I’m not, you know, I don’t need to… make it a thing.’ Maybe they were concerned with protests? Seattle is like a super woke area.”

According to a KING 5 report, the Capitol Hill Comedy/Bar makes comics “adhere to the code of conduct, which outlines expectations for respectful behavior and language, helping to create a safe and welcoming space for both comics and guests.”

‘Too funny not to immediately put on blast!’

Metzger, one of the comedians the Seattle comedy club canceled, pointed out the venue is located in the former Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ). That is the location where radical, violent activists took over six city blocks during the Black Lives Matter riots after the death of George Floyd.

“I’m sorry, but this is too funny not to immediately put on blast! Also, am I mistaken that this club is in Seattle’s historic ‘CHAZ’ district? (Kurt looks up toward heaven.) THANK U GEORGE FLOYD!,” he posted on X.

I’m sorry, but this is too funny not to immediately put on blast! Also, am I mistaken that this club is in Seattle’s historic “CHAZ” district?
(Kurt looks up toward heaven.)
THANK U GEORGE FLOYD! For the fun Im about to have with this on Twitter after I take a quick shit! BRB! pic.twitter.com/K4gGSGoPkW

— Kurt Metzger (@kurtmetzger) February 23, 2024

But wait, there’s more!

Click here to read about Metzger’s mockery on Jimmy Dore, SNL’s sashay into unwoke comedy, and the last word by Jason Rantz.

Financier and member of the Rothschild banking family, Lord Jacob Rothschild, died at 87. The cause of death was not given in a statement from the family. 

“Our father Jacob was a towering presence in many peoples’ lives – a superbly accomplished financier, a champion of the arts and culture, a devoted public servant, a passionate supporter of charitable causes in Israel and Jewish culture, a keen environmentalist and much-loved friend, father and grandfather,” the family said in the statement.

The statement continued: “He will be buried in accordance with Jewish custom in a small family ceremony and there will be a memorial at a later date to celebrate his life.”

Lord Rothschild began his career at the family-owned NM Rothschild & Sons bank in 1963. In 1980, he departed from the family bank to focus on Rothschild Investment Trust. This subsidiary, currently recognized as RIT Capital Partners Plc, ranks among the most prominent investment trusts in the UK.

Besides RIT, Rothschild co-founded J Rothschild Assurance Group, now called St James’s Place, with Sir Mark Weinberg in 1980. 

Since debuting on the London Stock Exchange in 1988, RIT has soared as much as 1,300%. 

Rothschild has also been the deputy chairman at the then BSkyB Television and was also chairman of trustees at The National Gallery. 

In 2019, Rothschild stepped down as RIT’s chairman. His daughter, Hannah, 61, remained on the board of directors of the investment firm. 

Let’s revisit some of Rothschild’s previous warnings: In 2015, he said, “The geopolitical situation is most dangerous since WWII.” One year later, he again warned about the outcome of “what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world,” and then again in August 2017, he cautioned that “share prices have in many cases risen to unprecedented levels at a time when economic growth is by no means assured.” And in 2018, he said the new world order is at risk. 

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Markets are normally overly optimistic coming into a new year. This year, however, US economic and earnings expectations were unusually less hopeful versus fairly positive outturns. 

That will make gains from here not as easy, as it will be harder for results to keep beating ever loftier expectations.

Perhaps not surprisingly for anyone who’s been involved in markets for long enough, they tend to get carried away at the start of the year. That applies to economists too. On average, economic surprise indices fall in the first months of the year, as the data fails to match up to heightened anticipations.

Unlike the average monthly change in economic surprises at the start of the year, though, this year has seen them rise (based on Citi’s indices).

That takes into account that expectations were already fairly upbeat coming into 2024. More and more investors had taken a US recession out of their central view, according to BofA’s January Global Fund Manager Survey.

Earnings estimates also tend to be afflicted by early-year boosterism, but these too have been surprising to the upside among many key companies.

About three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have beaten EPS estimates for 4Q23, while earnings estimates were continually marked up through the latest earnings season.

There were some high-profile beats, including Meta and Amazon, and most significantly Nvidia, who blew expectations out of the water, reporting a 22% increase in revenues and 33% increase in earnings q/q, along with some very bullish future guidance that is open to disappointment.

Markets have enjoyed the tailwind from economic and earnings expectations being exceeded. The S&P is up ~6.7% year-to-date versus the seasonal average of 1% (to end of February, with data going back to 1980).

That means further equity gains will become more of a grind as results need to deliver more and more to surprise to the upside, with the ongoing risk of what some actual bad news would almost do certainly to prices.

Sweden is now set to formally enter the NATO military alliance, after Hungary’s parliament voted to approve its bid on Monday afternoon, following many months of delays and Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s earlier stance of blocking Sweden’s accession. European leaders are now hailing the “historic day”. 

The belated ratification by Hungary marks overcoming the final hurdle for Sweden’s NATO accession – thus now it’s a done deal only with Brussels set to formalize it, as this marks reaching the required goal of all 31 NATO members needing to approve.

Prime Minister Orban and his ruling Fidesz party constituted the last holdout after Turkey also proceeded to ratify. Orban had just signed a deal for Hungary to obtain four Swedish-made fighter jets.

“We have managed to clarify our mutual good intentions,” he said of the jet deal signed Friday, with both sides referencing it as their signifying their mutual reconciliation. 

“To be a member of NATO together with another country means we are ready to die for each other,” Orban said. “A deal on defense and military capacities helps to reconstruct the trust between the two countries.”

On Monday the Hungarian leader did reiterate his position that there is “no military solution” to the Ukraine-Russia war and that a negotiated settlement should be pursued. But he also underscored that Russia “attacked” Ukraine.

Among the 194 members of parliament who voted, a mere six voted down Sweden’s accession into NATO. Budapest has long resisted Europe’s policy on Ukraine, especially the push to send more defense aid, but recently dramatically backed off its objections. Some pundits have accused Orban of effectively caving, compared to his prior firm stance based principally on wishing to avoid escalating with Moscow.

Today is a historic day. The parliaments of all NATO member states have now voted in favour of Swedish accession to NATO. Sweden stands ready to shoulder its responsibility for Euro-Atlantic security.

— SwedishPM (@SwedishPM) February 26, 2024

It was only last year that Finland became the 31st NATO member in a hugely controversial development given the country shares a long border with Russia. Moscow warned that the addition of the Scandinavian countries to the alliance could result in Russia choosing to militarize the 1300+ km-long border with Finland. Sweden also shares a small far northern Arctic border with Russia.

Both Sweden and Finland abandoned decades of an official policy of non-alignment in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which came almost exactly two years ago. Entering the third year of the war, things only seem to be continually escalating. NATO military exercises have already begun incorporating both countries’ militaries – though both have signaled they won’t allow nukes to be placed on their territories. 

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

Jacob Hardy was happy to purchase former President Donald Trump’s new $399 gold-colored sneakers.

The former president unveiled the new sneaker line at SneakerCon Philadelphia on Feb. 17.

“I support Trump in many ways and thought it was awesome that he was releasing such a rare collection of shoes,” the Pennsylvania resident told The Epoch Times.

But Mr. Hardy almost passed on buying the exclusive sneakers that some say sold out within hours of being launched. At first, the price seemed steep for a pair of shoes he intended to keep only as a collector’s piece, but as the minutes ticked by, he finally pulled the trigger.

Now, after seeing their potential resale value—with some sellers listing them online for as much as $45,000—Mr. Hardy wishes he had purchased three pairs instead of one.

Mr. Hardy is one of several people who have listed the new shoes on the online auction website eBay. The presale for the shoes, called “Never Surrender High-Tops,” was limited to 1,000 units and they’re expected to ship in July.

Reactions on social media were mixed. Supporters of President Trump praised him for being the first president to release branded sneakers within his new merchandise line, which also includes cologne and perfume. He also sold non-fungible tokens (NFTs), billed as digital “trading cards,” in December 2022, which sold out in a day. 

Others say the new products are simply a way for the former president to raise money after New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ordered President Trump and the Trump Organization to pay $355 million in damages in a 17-month-long fraud case brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James.

Former President Donald Trump greets attendees after introducing a new line of signature shoes at SneakerCon in Philadelphia on Feb. 17, 2024. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

The online store selling the shoes, GetTrumpSneakers.com, says on its website that the business “is not political and has nothing to do with any political campaign.”

The website is also selling another line of Trump-branded sneakers that are slated to be released in August.

President Trump’s various campaign committees spent more than $3.6 million on legal expenses in January alone, according to federal financial disclosures.

Some have questioned if candidates are allowed to use campaign donations and funds for personal legal expenses that may or may not be tied to a political campaign. A representative from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) told The Epoch Times that these uses of funds are typically approved or disapproved on a “case-by-case basis.”

The Epoch Times reached out to GetTrumpSneakers.com, the Trump Campaign, and the Trump Organization for comment but didn’t receive responses prior to publication.

Gold Shoes and High Prices

Even before the sneakers were offered for presale, a pair that President Trump brought to SneakerCon was auctioned off during the event.

The winning bidder, Roman Sharf, paid $9,000 for the gold-colored sneakers, which were also signed by the former president. He told The Epoch Times that President Trump had 50 pairs of the shoes with him at SneakerCon for “friends and family,” and it was one of those recipients who created the auction.

The eBay sellers who spoke with The Epoch Times were selling their presale rights to one of the 1,000 pairs.

One eBay seller named Khai, who spoke to The Epoch Times anonymously to avoid harassment, sold his presale sneakers for $5,000. Khai operates an eBay store out of California called Kppartners and will package and ship the shoes to his buyer after he receives them.

Former President Donald Trump introduced his new line of signature shoes at SneakerCon at the Philadelphia Convention Center in Philadelphia on Feb. 17, 2024. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Mr. Hardy said he bought his sneakers as a collector’s piece for himself but listed them at $12,500 in case someone is willing to buy.

A seller out of New Jersey who operates the eBay store Rinasbasement listed his presale sneakers at $45,000 after a potential buyer reneged on an initial $17,000 offer.

He told The Epoch Times his asking price is meant to honor President Trump as the 45th president.

Historically, presidential merchandise and memorabilia are largely used to raise awareness for campaigns.

Coins and clothing buttons were made to commemorate George Washington’s inauguration as the first president in 1789, according to the National Museum of American History at the Smithsonian. Other early examples include sewing boxes, crockery, and plates.

As the party system started to dominate American politics throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, items like badges, ribbons, placards, hats, coffee mugs, and banners also began to appear alongside presidential campaigns.

Elizabeth Klaczynski, associate curator at the Virginia Museum of History and Culture, told The Epoch Times that presidential candidates usually price these items inexpensively so common people can afford them or give them away for free to raise awareness of the candidate’s name and political campaign.

However, Ms. Klazynski said, purchasable merchandise is largely sold by the candidate’s campaign and not by the candidate or an associated company.

Younger Voting Base

Mr. Hardy doesn’t believe the sneaker line was meant to offset the former president’s legal expenses. The presale for the shoes was limited to 1,000 units.

Mr. Hardy noted this would result in $399,000 before manufacturing, taxes, and shipping costs, which he sees as a small fraction of the multi millions that President Trump owes in his New York fraud case.

However, others see it differently.

Former President Donald Trump holds gold Trump sneakers at SneakerCon in Philadelphia on Feb. 17, 2024. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo)

One eBay seller named Jay said the first thought that crossed his mind when he heard the sneaker announcement was that President Trump was likely “trying to counter all the litigation fees he’s accrued.” But, Jay said, he still wanted the first shoe branded by a former president.

“What previous president has ever released their own sneaker?” he told  The Epoch Times.

Jay operates an eBay store out of New Jersey called Kicks22llc and has been buying and reselling shoes for almost 10 years. He also refrained from using his full name due to backlash from selling the shoes.

Despite his initial thoughts, Jay told The Epoch Times that it takes considerable time to find “factories, material, manpower, or just infrastructure to make the shoe,” considering they were announced only a day after the fraud trial ruling.

However, he noted that it is also possible President Trump “could [have] had this as a plan in case things went awry” with his legal battles and the expenses they are quickly accruing.

Taylor, who operates the Texas-based eBay store TheAmericanGuardian and also wished to remain anonymous, sees the sneakers as a “brilliant way of reaching a largely neglected younger voting base.”

The 23-year-old split the cost of the shoes with her two younger sisters as an investment. 

Hate Messages and Harassment

Many of those who bought President Trump’s sneakers have faced considerable backlash.

After media outlets saw Mr. Sharf’s winning $9,000 bid for a pair of autographed sneakers, the story went viral with headlines alleging a “Russian CEO” or “Russian Oligarch” was funneling money into the former president’s campaign.

Mr. Sharf is neither Russian nor an “oligarch,” according to a recent video he posted on X, in which he explains his Ukrainian heritage and the struggles he faced after his father brought his family to the United States from the Soviet Union when he was 13.

After working “every dirty job under the sun,” Mr. Sharf said he joined the U.S. Army before eventually starting his watch reselling business, Luxury Bazaar.

But once news articles calling him a “Russian CEO” spread as far as India, Mr. Sharf said he received countless hate messages and comments, with some saying they would never use his business again.

Omar Fofana of Reading, Pa., holds his sneaker that was autographed by former President Donald Trump at SneakerCon in Philadelphia on Feb. 17, 2024. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

“You know, what saddens me the most about this whole situation is that over something as stupid as a pair of sneakers, it shows so clearly, once again, just how divided our country is,” Mr. Sharf said in his video.

The fear of targeted harassment and ridicule is why all but one of the eBay sellers who spoke with The Epoch Times asked to remain anonymous.

The seller behind Rinasbasement said he receives angry messages every day for listing the gold sneakers.

“I get hate messages about Trump all day long. It seriously takes a toll. I don’t know how Trump deals with all the hate. He’s got to have a super thick skin,” he told The Epoch Times.

One message he received on eBay said, “I wouldn’t pay a dollar for these Trump Tennis shoes! He will be in prison soon anyway!”

Another message said, “I’ll give you five cents for this garbage! What a rip-off!”

The seller said it is hard to “weed out actual customers from the trolls” but that he still gets legitimate questions, such as where the shoes are made. The website selling the shoes does not indicate the country where they will be manufactured.

The seller, who operates the eBay store Tech802d out of Las Vegas said he has received “tons of hate messages” after listing the shoe presale on the auction website.

One user offered to deliver “two metric tons of fresh cow manure since that’s all they are worth.” 

Issues Selling a ‘Presale’ Item

Some of the eBay sellers have faced issues with their listings, as the gold sneakers were originally sold as a presale.

According to eBay’s policy, “Presale listings must clearly state that they are ‘presale’ in the title and description and guarantee shipment within 40 business days of purchase.”

The eBay logo is displayed on the roof of eBay headquarters in San Jose, Calif., on Jan. 24, 2024. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Since the Trump sneakers are not estimated to ship until July, those who are selling their presale rights to the shoes on eBay are technically at odds with the company’s rules.

While Khai from Kppartners was able to sell his presale rights for $5,000, others weren’t as lucky.

The seller behind Tech702d said eBay pulled his listing, saying it violated eBay’s presale terms because the sneaker’s ship date is more than 40 days away.

The seller operating Rinasbasement said eBay had pulled his listing multiple times after visitors of the website reported it for being outside of the stipulated 40-day window in eBay’s terms of service.

He has also had buyers making empty offers and backing out at the last minute, which was another reason he relisted the presale shoes for $45,000. The listed  item has 48,744 views and 472 watchers. The seller said this is by far the most popular item he has ever listed on eBay in the 17 years he has operated his store.

‘Vote With Their Wallets’

Nearly all of the eBay sellers who spoke with The Epoch Times said they wanted to show their support for President Trump.

Mr. Hardy called President Trump a “great man” and was excited to own an exclusive collector’s item emblazoned with the former president’s name.

Attendees make videos and cheer as former President Donald Trump takes the stage to introduce a new line of signature shoes at SneakerCon in Philadelphia on Feb. 17, 2024. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Taylor from TheAmericanGuardian eBay store told The Epoch Times that she owns “many Trump t-shirts, sweatshirts, [and] hats,” but this was the first time she invested in a collectible with the intention of reselling it.

The owner of Rinasbasement said he figured the shoes would be a “piece of history.”

Mr. Shapiro said the sneakers give President Trump’s supporters a chance to “vote with their wallets.”

“Trump, for one, has given his supporters a chance to kind of vote with their wallets by not only supporting him and promising to vote for him but also paying money for his products,” he told The Epoch Times.

No matter how the buyers of President Trump’s sneakers show their enthusiasm for the former president, for Mr. Sharf, it’s much more than political support. It’s an expression of his values, who he is, and the path he wants to see the country follow.

“There’s not a mean tweet in the world, there’s not an IG post, there’s not a news article that’s going to stop me from being who I am,” he said in his video on X.

“And that is a patriot of this country, a country that once let in a 13-year-old immigrant and gave me the opportunity to be where I am today. And I’m going to be thankful for that for the rest of my life.”

Two stunning reports have emerged that spell trouble for Fulton County DA Fani Willis.

For starters, Breitbart News reports from multiple sources that the Biden administration “planted a Democrat operative in the Fulton County office to target former President Trump,” which according to the report “would present a strong argument that the administration interfered in the 2024 presidential election.”

Breitbart News granted the sources anonymity to discuss the attorney’s office for fear of retribution. The sources have direct knowledge of the environment at the District Attorney’s Office, which they characterized as “corrupt.”

The alleged ‘plant’ in questionf is Jeff DiSantis – the county’s Deputy DA, who not only worked on Willis’s 2020 campaign and was the former Executive Director of the Democrat Party of Georgia, he was the DNC’s deputy director of compliance.

Sources credit DiSantis with colluding with the White House to target Trump. “DiSantis did this,” one source told Breitbart News about the Trump case. “He’s the one. He is the one pulling all the strings. He was the one that walled her [Willis] off. He was in every important meeting. He is the brainchild behind this. That is the connection to the White House.”

One of Breitbart‘s sources said they are “one hundred percent” sure DiSantis was the inside man that the Biden administration planted in the Fulton County office.

“DiSantis is the one pulling the strings on this whole thing,” a second source told the outlet. “Everybody heard Fani testify. It’s no secret that she’s not smart. That is how she sounds and acts every day of the week.”

“Anyone that has common sense knows that the White House has been involved in this prosecution,” a source continued. “This shouldn’t just miraculously happen. Of course, she’s [Willis] not going to prosecute the former president United States without the current administration’s approval.”

According to the sources, DiSantis was deeply involved in selecting grand jurors for the Trump case based on voter registration data.

“Part of why you’re raising money as a candidate is to get money to buy the data about who are your voters. DiSantis, as the former head of the state Democratic Party, he’s going to know you know [the data] in Georgia,” said a source. “There’s not one conservative person on that grand jury.“

Sources also revealed that DiSantis was a member of Willis’s transition team after she won the election in November 2020. DiSantis helped Wade select employees for the new office. “DiSantis was there in the capacity to be a political strategist, hiding in the DA’s office,” a source told Breitbart News.

Meanwhile…

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) came down on Willis with an elbow drop from the top rope, revealing at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) that there’s a whistleblower inside of Fani’s office. Whether it’s one of Breitbart‘s sources – we don’t know, though Jordan’s comments suggest it might be Willis’s former friend, Robin Bryant Yeartie, who testified against her about Fani’s relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade.

“[The whistleblower is] now talking with our office, and we’ll see how that goes. But that’s why we have subpoenaed documents related to this,” Jordan continued.

As the Epoch Times notes further;

Over the past several weeks, significant allegations against Ms. Willis and her special prosecutor, Nathan Wade, have emerged, triggering several court motions and hearings during which Ms. Willis and Mr. Wade have testified. The allegations center around the timing of a romantic relationship between the two—the existence of which both have confirmed—and whether Ms. Willis financially benefitted from the arrangement.

Ms. Willis hired Mr. Wade in November 2021 to handle the racketeering and election case against former President Donald Trump and several co-defendants. Late last week, President Trump’s team said they hired a private investigator to use a program to provide data on Mr. Wade’s cellphone, suggesting that Mr. Wade was actively engaged in a relationship many months before they claimed that their relationship started, in 2022, a key claim both made in court earlier this month.

It’s unclear whether Mr. Jordan was referring to Robin Yeartie, a witness in the case who claimed that the two were involved in a relationship in 2019. Ms. Yeartie, who had owned the property where Ms. Willis had lived and was her friend, testified that she was forced to resign from the Fulton County District Attorney’s office several years ago.

However, there have been reports that the whistleblower could be another former employee at the office, Amanda Timpson.

Mr. Jordan sent a letter to Ms. Willis’s office several weeks ago, saying the employee was fired because she was being retaliated against, which he said raises serious concerns about whether the district attorney was appropriately supervising the expenditure of federal grant funding allocated to her office and whether she took actions to conceal her office’s “unlawful use of federal funds.”

As reported by The Washington Free Beacon, Ms. Timpson said troubles within the office started in March 2021 when she stopped an aide to Ms. Willis from allegedly trying to obtain funds from a $488,000 federal grant for an anti-gang violence organization to instead pay for travel, computers, and other items. The report noted that she was fired in early 2022, saying only that she was terminated because of an “employee discharge.”

But Ms. Willis rejected the claims by saying that the ex-employee’s claims are “false allegations” that are “included in baseless litigation filed by a holdover employee from the previous administration who was terminated for cause,” Politico reported. Her office stated that she failed “to meet the standards of the new administration.”

“Any examination of the records of our grant programs will find that they are highly effective and conducted in cooperation with the Department of Justice and in compliance with all Department of Justice requirements,” Ms. Willis said earlier this month.

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New Filing and Response

On Feb. 23, the private investigator hired by the Trump team, Charles Mittelstadt, said he analyzed cellphone location data of Mr. Wade showing that he visited the neighborhood south of Atlanta where Ms. Willis lived at least 35 times during the first 11 months of 2021, adding that he specifically visited the condo in which the district attorney lived. Mr. Wade testified that he had been to Ms. Willis’s condo fewer than 10 times before he was hired as special prosecutor in November 2021.

In their response, Ms. Willis’s team stated that the cellphone records “do nothing more than demonstrate that Special Prosecutor Wade’s telephone was located somewhere within a densely populated multiple-mile radius where various residences, restaurants, bars, nightclubs, and other businesses are located.”

The Epoch Times contacted Ms. Willis’s office regarding the allegations but received no response by press time.

Ninety minutes after the Treasury sold a record $63 billion in an ugly 2Y auction, at 1pm we got the day’s second coupon auction when we just saw another record, this time in the form of $64 billion in 5Y notes, the highest amount ever sold for the tenor.

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.320%, up 26.5bps from last month and just like the 2Y auction earlier, this too tailed the When Issued by 0.8bps (the WI was 4.312% at 1 pm).

The bid to cover was a modest improvement from last month’s 2.31, rising to 2.41 but still below the recent average of 2.45.

The internals were, likewise, modestly stronger than the ugly Jan auction, but again left a bit to be desired. The indirect award was 63.5%, up from 60.9% last month but below the 66.3% recent average. And with Directs awarded 19.7%, up from 18.7% last month, and above the 17.8% recent average, meant that Dealers were left holding 16.8% down from 20.5% and in line with the 16.0% six-auction average.

And with 2 of the week’s 3 coupon auction now down on the first day of trading, and with markets realizing just how much supply there is, it’s not surprising that yields have shot up to session highs, with the 10Y rising above 4.30% after briefly trading below 4.22% earlier in the session.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

California Governor Gavin Newsom declared Sunday that Joe Biden’s presidency has been a “masterclass” and that he is “all in” for another four years with Biden, in yet another over the top fawning appearance.

“I revere his record. I mean it’s – what he’s done in three years has been a masterclass,” Newsom told NBC’s Meet The Press, going on to claim Biden has created 15 million jobs, which is not true, and that the economy is “booming.”

Newsom also praised Biden’s “temperance,” despite the fact that Biden appears permanently angry and yells at reporters all the time, as well as praising “his capacity to lead in a bipartisan manner,” regardless of the fact that Biden calls Republicans extremists practically every day.

The kicker came, however, when Newsom claimed “It’s because of [Biden’s] age that he’s been so successful,” adding “the opportunity to express that for four more years, what a gift it is for the American people. And as a Democrat, what a gift it is for me to make the case for the leader of our party, Joe Biden.”

Watch:

Watch: Gavin Newsom again fawns over and worships Biden, calling his presidency a “masterclass” and a “gift”. He seems far too pleased with Biden, leading some to suggest something else is afoot here. Report: https://t.co/Z9xDNl3s5h pic.twitter.com/UFxPVK7Q4t

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) February 26, 2024

During an earlier exchange with reporters, Newsom was asked if he personally has a better chance of beating Trump in an election than Biden, prompting another outpouring of cringe Biden worship from the California Governor:

Some, including Joe Rogan, believe Newsom is acting far too pleased with Biden, and is effectively patting him on the back on the way out the door as he already knows he’s replacing Biden.

Joe Rogan on Gavin Newsom & Seth
MacFarlane Gaslighting the Public About Biden’s Record

“We’ve seen some wild gaslighting the past couple of weeks talking about the economy…It’s like hot gas in your face. It’s burning your lungs.”@joerogan @ChrisWillx pic.twitter.com/1jIzJepkMp

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) February 17, 2024

Joe Rogan speculates Biden will be forced to step down, and Democrats are setting up Gavin Newsom to run against Trump – EP;2104

‘I think they’re gonna get rid of him… I’d say they’re setting up Gavin Newsom for it,’ pic.twitter.com/hIdec677dD

— Unlimited L’s (@unlimited_ls) February 20, 2024

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By Benjamin Picton of Rabobank

A spectre is haunting markets – the spectre of hawkishness. This could prove to be a watershed week for traders who have been paring-back optimistic bets on monetary easing since the implied path of policy rates hit euphoric levels in mid-January (see “Is The Fed’s Next Move A Rate Hike“).

The perennial canary in the monetary coal mine, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, will be holding a policy meeting on Wednesday. Markets are pricing a touch over a one-in-four probability of a 25 basis point hike at that meeting, with a greater than 60% probability that a hike will be delivered by the end of May. Ouch.

Obviously, this would not suit the prevailing narrative of impending rate cuts the world over. How much attention will traders in other markets be paying to what the antipodeans are doing with their monetary settings? Will a hike, or even a hawkish hold, prompt further repricing in the term structure of rates for major markets around the world? Could NZ again be a lead indicator for other central banks (recall that the RBNZ was among the first to hike, back in October 2021)? And could this ultimately threaten an equity rally that continues to expand the frontiers of mathematics?

Our house view is for no rate hike this week, but household inflation expectations figures released late last week are enough to make us nervous. That data showed two-year expectations rising from 3% to 3.2%, while five year expectations rose to 3% after having been anchored at the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target range (2%) for four consecutive quarters. That’s a problem, because Keynesian central banker types believe that when it comes to inflation, expectations become reality.

The household survey is an interesting contrast to the views of business and professional forecasters. Figures released back on the 13th of February showed further declines in one and two year inflation expectations for this group, with two-year expectations within the target range at 2.5%.

The views of households probably matter most in the eyes of the central bank. Taken together with stubborn non-tradable inflation, a resilient unemployment rate and recent hawkishness from RBNZ speakers, it’s fair to say that this week’s meeting is live. The arguments against a hike hinge on the fact that New Zealand unexpectedly recorded negative growth in Q3 (the most recent period that we have data for), headline inflation has been falling faster than the RBNZ’s projections, Q4 retail sales reported last week were grim (-1.9% m/m) and the fiscal impulse is turning more contractionary as a new government seeks to reign in deficits.

There is also the fact that the unemployment rate tends to a lagging indicator. By the time it moves substantially higher the horse has generally bolted and the economy is hurtling towards recession.

Therein lays a conundrum for central bankers: to actually achieve the soft landing that market pricing says is all but assured, rates will probably have to be cut pre-emptively.  But central bank speakers are still telling us “not so fast” on policy easing, even as the TIPS market tells us that real rates are at levels that we last saw in 2007 (immediately before a deflationary crash), and transmission lags mean that the full effect of any cuts won’t be felt for 18-24 months. Central bankers are going to try to catch a falling knife 18 months in advance.

Nevertheless, Janet Yellen declared victory back in December when she said that economists are “eating their words” on predictions that the unemployment rate would have to rise dramatically for inflation to return to target. I’ve filed this for posterity alongside sub-prime is “likely to be contained” and “stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”. Our own US Strategist, Philip Marey, continues to expect a recession in the United States later this year.

So, there is a good chance that we are now in the policy error zone. We’re comforted by model-driven forecasts that show GDP growth converging to trend, and inflation at-target over time (our own forecasts mostly suggest this), but the world of economic modelling is hostage to assumptions of Gaussian distributions, when in reality the distribution of possible outcomes often exhibits kurtosis or skew and can be hijacked by the introduction of new variables that were not incorporated into the model. That means that Keynesian DSGE models always predict a return to target, and that no problem is so great that it cannot be ‘transitoried’ away.

Consequently, one-in-a-hundred-year events have a nasty habit of occurring more frequently than they should, and seemingly small cogs in the larger economic machine can be outsized contributors to gains or losses. In an economic environment where monetary aggregates have experienced historically rapid expansion followed by historically rapid contraction in the space of just a few short years, there is plenty of scope for even the most conscientious forecasts to be mugged by the occurrence of events that were previously impossible to predict, or at least impossible to assign a probability to.

Markets continue to price for a soft-landings that history tells us almost never happen, and the economics profession, cognisant of risks in both directions, likewise adopts this as the base-case scenario. This follows the logic that if I put my head in the freezer and my feet in the oven, the room temperature is pleasant on average. Since the distribution of outcomes for important variables doesn’t always follow our assumption of a random walk, we should be mindful that forecasts are almost certain to be flawed, biased by what is known at the time, and hostage to the quality of our assumptions.

Getting those assumptions just a little bit wrong can easily result in a random walk spoiled