‘Everything’ Rallies On First Day Of March After Fed Hints At Next ‘QE’

‘Everything’ Rallies On First Day Of March After Fed Hints At Next ‘QE’

And ugly data day was brightened up when Fed Governor Waller wrecked the wall of worry.

ISM Manufacturing was a shitshow (in contraction for 15 straight months), Construction spending unexpectedly declined (first MoM drop since Dec 2022), UMich confidence declined (and inflation exp ticked higher) – all of which dragged US Macro surprise index back near neutral…

Source: Bloomberg

And although ‘bad news is good news’, it was Waller’s remarks that prompted the market’s “everything is awesome” response as he hinted that The Fed would unveil a new QE ‘Reverse Twist’ for its balance-sheet (buying short-term Treasuries and dumping Agency MBS).

Of course, as we detailed earlier, the timing of Waller’s comments are convenient too as shifting The Fed’s holdings towards Bills perfectly complement’s The Treasury’s recently stated expectation that their Bill-share will rise above their prior 20% guideline.

In other words: Treasury is going to issue more bills, and Fed will buy more of them as well.

Waller’s comments come as Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan reiterated it’ll likely be appropriate to start slowing the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet.

And Waller’s comments come right on cue as The Fed’s reverse repo facility saw a simply stunning $128BN of liquidity sucked out of it over the last two days (a 22% drop) across month-end…

Source: Bloomberg

We warned four days ago this was coming…

Leaving the Ides of March in play for a liquidity crisis…

Source: Bloomberg

So – Unleash the dollars…

And just like – everything was higher…

Stocks went vertical, gold soared, Treasury yields plunged (and the yield curve steepened… in a good way), oil ramped up too (and so did crypto, even after the week it had).

Small Caps led the face-ripping melt-up on the week (with Nasdaq’s big day today pulling it to a 2% gain on the week). The S&P managed gains on the week (thanks to today’s meltup), but The Dow ended the week marginally lower…

NVDA officially closed above $2TN market cap today. For context, in Oct 2022, the company was worth $280BN…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, while the last few months have seen ‘Vol Up, Spot Up’ in Nasdaq as traders chase the market with levered bets, the last week has seen vols decline as stocks soared (implying less of a FOMO chasefest)…

Source: Bloomberg

But… demand for downside protection is still non-existent as skews test record lows once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were aggressively bid today, led by the short-end (2Y -9bps, 30Y -5bps), dragging all yields lower on the week (again led by the short-end)…

Source: Bloomberg

And that bull-steepened the yield curve…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto had a giant week with huge inflows to BTC ETFs…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin roared up to just shy of $64,000 this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also spiked, all the way above $3500 this week…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled today after Waller but ended the week unch…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold soared up near end-Dec highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices also spiked today, breaking out to their highest close since Nov 6th…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, are these the vinegar strokes (Google it) of the melt-up-rally-top?

Source: Bloomberg

Will the March FOMC meeting be used to introduce the public to NOT-QE “Reverse Twist”, because the first rule of Fed QE-club is you never mention QE.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/aWU7DmS Tyler Durden

Transgender Space Force Colonel Says Using Pronouns In Emails Will Help Win Wars

Transgender Space Force Colonel Says Using Pronouns In Emails Will Help Win Wars

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

During a speech to the U.S. Air Force, transgender Space Force Col. Bree Fram demanded everyone use pronouns in their emails as a way to enhance “winning war fighting strategies”.

Yes, really.

“All too often, I hear leaders talk about providing everyone with dignity and respect like it’s an aspirational goal, that ‘s not good enough,” said Fram.

“Dignity and respect is the bare minimum, it’s the floor of where we can be, we must set our sights higher and focus on intentional inclusivity, because there are still far too many people out there, not just LGBTQ individuals, that feel marginalized, shut out or discriminated against,” he added.

“So for all of you out there, I ask you to set out your symbols of pride, share your pronouns in your email, particularly if you’re a person who doesn’t think they need to, initiate difficult conversations about racial and gender barriers, and share a bit of your vulnerability in a way that draws others in.”

“You all have the power to take intentionally inclusive action to ensure the multiple perspectives that we know make us stronger as we devise winning war fighting strategies get heard.”

Respondents ox X weren’t really too convinced that dignifying transgender pronouns will help win wars.

Fram previously responded to online criticism (he was of course the victim of “harassment and hate” because people refused to dignify his pronouns) by making some strange claims.

“You had amazing heroes of the Revolution who just happened to be gay. You had over 400 documented cases of transgender people serving during the Civil War for the Union,” said Fram.

Needless to say, a source for that claim wasn’t provided.

As we document in the video below, the U.S. Army is struggling to find new recruits, particularly amongst young white males.

Gee, I wonder why?

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 15:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/aSyJfGi Tyler Durden

Health Officials Concerned Over Possible RSV Vaccine Link To Rare Neurological Condition

Health Officials Concerned Over Possible RSV Vaccine Link To Rare Neurological Condition

“Trust the science,” they told us… 

At a time when the largest mRNA Covid vaccine peer-reviewed study recently revealed increases in neurological, blood, and heart-related conditions, along with the pharma-industrial complex unleashing a ‘blitzkrieg’ of vaccine commercials across corporate media outlets, a new report has found that vaccines for respiratory syncytial virus could be causing a rare nervous system disorder in older adults. 

The New York Times has reported that new safety data for two RSV vaccines, presented at a meeting of scientific advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday, indicates that Guillain-Barre syndrome – a rare condition where the immune system attacks nerve cells, leading to muscle weakness and paralysis – may have occurred in adults over 60 who received the vaccines. Two vaccines, Pfizer’s Abrysvo and GSK’s Arexvy, are currently available on the market.

Officials said the rare disease that attacks the immune system was found in two cases per 100,000 vaccinated, and added more data is needed to understand the risks. 

“At this point, due to the uncertainties and limitations, these early data cannot establish if there is an increased risk for GBS after vaccination in this age group,” Dr. Thomas Shimabukuro, director of the CDC’s Immunization Safety Office, said at the meeting on Thursday. 

Dr. Shimabukuro continued: Increased surveillance “will be better able to determine if an increased risk for GBS after RSV vaccination is present, and if so the magnitude of the risk.” 

NYTimes pointed out the new safety data was derived from multiple databases maintained by federal health agencies: 

“Of 37 preliminary reports in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, officials verified 23 by medical record review, 15 with Abrysvo and eight after Arexvy, Dr. Shimabukuro said. There were nearly three additional cases of GBS per million doses of Abrysvo than would be expected in the population of older Americans.

“A separate database identified four cases of GBS linked to Arexvy, translating to an estimated 14 cases per million doses administered. That system did not pick up any cases after shots of Abrysvo. But the vaccine accounted for only about 10 percent of the total doses recorded in the database.” -NYTimes

“I will say that these rates are higher than rates that we’ve observed for high-dose influenza and for Shingrix,” Dr. Shimabukuro said.

NYTimes also noted, “Additional data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services indicated that the incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome after vaccination with Abrysvo was roughly five times higher than would be expected. The incidence after vaccination with Arexvy was not statistically significant.” 

A GSK spokeswoman told the media outlet, “There are limitations to all of these data, and further analysis by FDA, CDC and the vaccine manufacturers are needed to confirm and quantify any potential risk.” 

One X user makes a good point. 

Another said, “Trust the science.” 

“Of course, they begin by saying it’s so “Rare” until it’s not,” another X user said.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has warned about the lack of vaccine testing…

Remember this…

Perhaps Americans need to look at total health instead of relying on one-shot vaccines pitched as “miracle drugs.” 

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 15:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/EutyYLH Tyler Durden

Blaze Journalist Arrested On 4 Charges Over Jan. 6 Presence At Capitol

Blaze Journalist Arrested On 4 Charges Over Jan. 6 Presence At Capitol

Update (1530ET): Steve Baker of The Blaze was arrested on Friday and charged with four misdemeanors related to his Jan. 6 coverage at the US Capital.

Steve Baker of Blaze Media speaks with radio host Glenn Beck about his Jan. 6 pipe bomb reporting on Feb. 15, 2024. (Blaze Media/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)

He turned himself over to the FBI in Dallas.

The charges are:

    Knowingly entering or remaining in any restricted building or grounds without lawful authority
    Disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds
    Disorderly conduct in a capitol building
    Parading, demonstrating, or picketing in a capitol building

*  *  *

Authored by Joseph M. Hanneman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Blaze Media journalist whose recent coverage exposed possible perjury by U.S. Capitol Police in a high-profile Jan. 6 trial, says an arrest warrant has been signed and he will surrender to the FBI in Dallas on March 1 to face four Jan. 6 misdemeanor charges.

Stephen Michael Baker, 63, of Raleigh, North Carolina, was sitting at a table at the Old Hickory restaurant at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington on Feb. 23 when he received a call from one of his defense attorneys, Bill Shipley.

“What? When did this happen?” he asked Mr. Shipley. After a brief conversation, Mr. Baker turned to a colleague at the table and said, “Well, it’s happening.”

Mr. Baker is slated to appear at 10 a.m. on March 1 before a magistrate judge in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas in Dallas.

The prosecutor informed my attorney that I am to arrive at the FBI field office wearing ‘shorts and sandals,’” Mr. Baker wrote on X. “They didn’t have to go this route, as we’ve been told that my charges are non-violent misdemeanors.

My attorneys have also been assured by the [government] that this will be an ‘in and out’ affair and that they have ‘no intention’ of detaining me,” he wrote. “But, rather than issuing a simple order to appear, they seem to feel the need to give me a dose of the personal humiliation treatment.”

Mr. Baker and the six attorneys who agreed to represent him in the case have said the U.S. Department of Justice is pursuing the prosecution as retribution for his coverage that they say embarrassed the DOJ, FBI, U.S. Capitol Police, and others.

That view was shared by others on Feb. 28.

‘Selective Prosecution’

“What the federal government is doing to Steve is unconscionable,” Matthew Peterson, editor-in-chief of Blaze Media, told The Epoch Times.

“Americans should not have unknown charges hanging over their heads for years on end, and the timeline here suggests that government is now retaliating against him for the stories he’s filed with us.”

Mr. Peterson said a simple review of the video shot by Mr. Baker at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 makes it clear that he was there as a journalist. On Jan. 6 Mr. Baker was not employed by Blaze Media yet, but captured video for his news-and-commentary blog, The Pragmatic Constitutionalist.

Why have all the other journalists who entered the Capitol not been charged with misdemeanors?” Mr. Peterson asked. “The government appears to be engaged in selective prosecution.

Mr. Baker becomes the latest in a string of right-of-center journalists prosecuted for their presence at the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Stephen Ethan Horn, 25, of Youngsville, North Carolina, was found guilty by a jury on Sept. 18, 2023, on four Jan. 6 counts, including entering and remaining in a restricted building, disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building, violent entry and disorderly conduct in a Capitol building, and parading, demonstrating or picketing in a Capitol building.

Mr. Horn was sentenced on Jan. 10 by U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly to 12 months of probation and fined $2,000.

Federal prosecutors—who asked Judge Kelly to jail Mr. Horn for 10 months—questioned his press credentials and claimed he was no different than hundreds of other “rioters” on the grounds that day.

Jesus Delamora Rivera Jr., 40, of Pensacola, Fla., was sentenced to eight months in jail after being found guilty in a June 2022 bench trial on the same four misdemeanor charges as Mr. Horn.

Metropolitan Police Department Sgt. Frank Edwards fires a munition shell toward protesters on the west side of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. (Steve Baker/Special to The Epoch Times)

Mr. Rivera was a cinematographer who operated a political blog at the time of the Jan. 6 protests.

He filmed Jan. 6 action outside and entered into the Capitol to document the protests. He had just been offered a job as a cameraman for a local television news station. His conviction and sentence were upheld by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia.

Other journalists prosecuted by the DOJ include William Pope, editor of Free State Kansas, Sam Montoya and Owen Shroyer of Infowars, and independent opinion journalist Shawn Bradley Witzemann of Tribune Media International.

Only Mr. Pope’s case is still in the pretrial stage.

The announcement of Mr. Baker’s pending prosecution drew a sharp response.

“The DOJ has no suspects in either the RNC/DNC pipe bomb nor gallows investigation, but they are targeting an independent journalist who simply documented what he witnessed on Jan. 6,” said U.S. Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.), chairman of the Committee on House Administration’s Subcommittee on Oversight.

“There were dozens of journalists at the Capitol that day, so why target [Baker]?”

‘Our Country is Lost’

“The regime is arresting Steve for the crime of exposing the lies at the core of the J6 narrative,” Mike Howell of the Oversight Project at Heritage Foundation wrote on X.

“In a sane world, he’d be winning the Pulitzer Prize and [be] a national hero for telling the truth. Instead, they’re arresting this journalist.”

Filmmaker and actor Nick Searcy, who produced two Jan. 6 documentaries, likened Mr. Baker’s prosecution to communism.

“Our country is lost. We are no better than any communist country at this point,” Mr. Searcy wrote on X.

Just before a January press conference held in Dealey Plaza in Dallas, Mr. Baker said he believes the prosecution is payback for his work as a journalist.

“After not having indicted me for three years, it is clear that any move to do so now will be in retaliation for my reporting,” Mr. Baker said in a statement. “I will not be intimidated. I will continue to report the findings of my investigation into the evidence being made available to me to review,” he said.

In October 2023 Mr. Baker published an investigation at Blaze Media alleging that two Capitol Police officials gave false testimony in the 2002 trial of Oath Keepers founder Elmer Stewart Rhodes III and four other men.

Paramedics rush a mortally wounded Ashli Babbitt to the rescue squad just after 3 p.m. on Jan. 6, 2021. (Steve Baker/Special to The Epoch Times)

More recently, Mr. Baker reported that a plainclothes Capitol Police officer, not a passerby, discovered the pipe bomb at the Democratic National Committee offices on Jan. 6. He also wrote that a Capitol Police security camera was turned away from the DNC in the middle of police response to the bomb.

The Epoch Times confirmed Mr. Baker’s reports and disclosed that a second and third USCP security camera was deliberately panned away from the scene during bomb-squad operations.

Mr. Baker was first threatened with prosecution in the fall of 2021 after he voluntarily met with two FBI special agents in North Carolina.

He was later told that the DOJ was considering an interstate racketeering charge because he received money to license his Jan. 6 video to HBO, The New York Times, and other media outlets.

‘Tell Him to Be Careful’

There was no update after that until March 2023, when Mr. Baker was warned by a well-connected journalist that his online commentaries about the Oath Keepers case, Capitol Police, and other issues were chafing important people at the DOJ.

“I got a call from another journalist who has a friendly source inside the Department of Justice there in D.C.,” Baker told The Epoch Times.

He called me up and said—this is a paraphrase, but he said—‘Your friend in Raleigh, tell him to be careful. He has awakened a couple of people’s attention to his work, and they’re not happy about it at all.’

 He had a front-row view of some intense scenes, including the initial bombardment of munitions aimed by police at the huge crowd on the Capitol’s west front.

His video work appeared in Jan. 6 films by HBO, The New York Times, and The Epoch Times. It has been syndicated worldwide on Storyful.

Mr. Baker filmed the debut of a Metropolitan Police Department “hard squad” and the violence that broke out as the riot-gear-clad officers rolled and rumbled through the dense crowd just after 1 p.m.

In August 2023, Mr. Baker received a subpoena for his Jan. 6 video, which he said was ironic since he offered the footage to the FBI in 2021. He traveled to Washington on the subpoena deadline date to turn in the video. But no one at the DOJ knew anything about it, he said at the time.

In December 2023, Mr. Baker was warned by federal authorities to expect imminent charges. His surrender to the FBI, initially set before Christmas, was delayed. There was no further word until January, prompting the Dallas press conference.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 15:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/nZGKY0I Tyler Durden

Trump Will Remain On Illinois Ballot Pending Appeal, Virtue-Signaling Judge Clarifies In New Order

Trump Will Remain On Illinois Ballot Pending Appeal, Virtue-Signaling Judge Clarifies In New Order

Update (1400ET): Less than 24 hours after she ordered Donald Trump removed from Illinois’ primary ballot (because ‘meh, insurrection’), Cook County Circuit Court Judge Tracie Porter clarified the duration of a stay she placed on her removal order on Wednesday when she ruled President Trump “disqualified” and that any votes for him would be void if the order went into effect.

As The Epoch Times’ Caden Pearsen reports, Judge Porter had initially stayed that original removal order until March 1, anticipating an appeal to the Illinois Appellate Court, First District, or the Illinois Supreme Court, and/or pending a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in a case from Colorado.

However, the language in the stay was deemed vague, prompting President Trump’s attorneys to seek clarification on Thursday, and request a ruling by 12 p.m., or they would file an emergency motion in the appeals court to stay the ruling.

In response to the notice of appeal filed by President Trump’s attorneys, Judge Porter modified her original stay on Thursday.

The removal order was modified to state that it is stayed until the appeal is “finally resolved by the Illinois Appellate Court, First District, the Illinois Supreme Court, and/or the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Furthermore, the new order directed that “the Illinois State Board of Elections shall continue to include Candidate Donald J. Trump on the ballot for the March 19, 2024, General Primary Election” until the appeal is resolved.

President Trump’s legal team had requested the emergency stay, arguing that the uncertainty surrounding the stay’s duration—originally until March 1—could lead to logistical difficulties for election officials and voter confusion. The March 19 primary in Illinois is fast approaching, with ballots already printed featuring President Trump’s name and mail-in ballots sent to voters.

So, was it all a giant virtue-signal for a potential run for higher office in the future? “See, I battled for democracy, but The Supremes over-ruled me”?

*  *  *

Wirepoints founder, Mark Glennon, detailed earlier, a Cook County judge ruled Wednesday to eliminate Illinoisans’ right to vote in November for the presidential candidate most Americans currently favor — Donald Trump.

That’s a different but correct way to state what the judge did. On its face, the ruling said Trump lost his right to be on the ballot because he participated in an insurrection on January 6, 2021 at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., but the plain fact is that the public’s right to vote for Trump was also denied by the ruling.

Despite the gravity of that antidemocratic result, the court did none of its own fact-finding or legal analysis to make its decision. It simply parroted a similar December decision by the Colorado Supreme Court — a decision that set no precedent binding on an Illinois court. The Illinois court merely did a “cut-and-paste” job with the Colorado decision, law professor Jonathan Turley rightly said.  That’s indeed about all the Illinois 39-page ruling by Cook County Judge Tracie Porter is — a cut-and-paste job.

Nor did the court address any of the criticisms leveled against the Colorado decision in dissenting opinions and commentary. Most importantly, Judge Porter did not address, and showed no concern over, the harsh questioning of the Colorado decision leveled by U.S. Supreme Court justices during oral arguments in the appeal over it

Cook County Judge Tracie R. Porter

It’s in that appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court of the Colorado case that sanity will be restored and the grandstanding of Judge Porter will be exposed.

The top Court, legal analysts agree, will almost certainly overrule the Colorado decision, which would also void the Illinois decision. The Supreme Court ruling may even be unanimous because it was the liberal judges who leveled the toughest questions during oral arguments.

Justice Elena Kagan, for example, asked why one state should be able to disqualify a candidate from the ballot and, thereby effectively determine who becomes the president of the United States? Rather than sounding like an issue for an individual state to decide, she said, that “sounds awfully national to me.”

It’s also because of that appeal that there’s no need to rehash the specific matters at issue in the case, many of which are complex or novel. Countless news pieces and opinion articles on that are easily found.

What’s important is that the Supreme Court will resolve those issues predisposed toward a democratic result, as it should, and as it clearly indicated it would during oral arguments. That’s the key, overriding principle. Judge Porter’s ruling, however, shows no remorse over democracy lost.

But there’s one thing I haven’t seen discussed that merits special attention. For the facts that allegedly prove Trump’s participation in the insurrection, Judge Porter, as mentioned, relied on the Colorado court’s findings, which were made by a trial court there.

And guess who that trial court relied on for some of its fact-finding?

The U.S. House Select Committee on January 6th.

“[T]he Court holds that the January 6th Report is reliable and trustworthy and thereby admissible,” says the trial court’s order, and that committee’s work was frequently cited in its ruling and on appeal.

That should go in the “you’ve gotta be kidding” file.

The January 6 Committee was a made-for-TV, Soviet-style show trial that denied any semblance of due process. No defense or counter explanations and statements were allowed. The committee hired a former ABC news boss to produce its prime time TV special covering its hearing. The only two Republicans on the committee were Trump haters Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger.  For more than two years, the surveillance film of the Capitol riot, to which the committee had full access, was hidden from the public and defendants.

A new house committee is trying to recover 117 encrypted files that the now-disbanded Jan. 6 Committee deleted before Republicans took the majority last year.

Former committee staffers lashed out at Liz Cheney and the committee for withholding key findings in its report.

“We all came from prestigious jobs, dropping what we were doing because we were told this would be an important fact-finding investigation that would inform the public,” said one former committee staffer.

“But when [the committee] became a Cheney 2024 campaign, many of us became discouraged.”

From start to finish the committee was a farce that the public saw through.

Opinion polls about Trump and his alleged participation in the riot change little because of the committee.

Yet it’s that committee’s finding on which Judge Porter indirectly relied, in significant part, to void any vote for Trump.

Decide what you want about Trump and whether he participated in an insurrection, but remember who would deny you the right to vote based on what you decide.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 14:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/UErS80K Tyler Durden

Today Is A Good Day To DEI: In Huge Win For DeSantis, University Of Florida Fires All ‘Diversity, Equity & Inclusion’ Staff

Today Is A Good Day To DEI: In Huge Win For DeSantis, University Of Florida Fires All ‘Diversity, Equity & Inclusion’ Staff

Following a mandate by the Florida Board of Governors, the University of Florida has fired all DEI staff, effective immediately.

“To comply with the Florida Board of Governor’s regulation 9.016 on prohibited expenditures, the University of Florida has closed the Office of the Chief Diversity Officer, eliminated DEI positions and administrative appointments, and halted DEI-focused contracts with outside vendors,” reads a statement from Provost J. Scott Angle.

“Under the direction of UF Human Resources, university employees whose positions were eliminated will receive UF’s standard twelve weeks of pay.

Developing…

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 14:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/0s72mP6 Tyler Durden

Apollo: 10 Reasons Why The Fed Won’t Cut Rates In 2024

Apollo: 10 Reasons Why The Fed Won’t Cut Rates In 2024

Two weeks ago, with inflation reversing higher, oil surging, home price gains just unstoppable, oh and of course stonks trading at all time high thanks to a new tech bubble which has pushed bitcoin back to record highs, we asked if the Fed’s next move won’t be a rate hike (even if that means that more banks will blow up, forcing the Fed to both hike and QE at the same time, in keeping with the Reverse Twist idea just floated by Waller this morning).

Fast forward to today when Apollo’s chief economist and resident permabear Torsten Slok (who won’t rest until you have sold all your assets to private equity giant Apollo which will be very happy to buy everything yo uhave to sell), published ten reasons why the Fed won’t cut at all in 2024 (and thus, why a hike is much more likely).

We excerpt from his note below:

The market came into 2023 expecting a recession. The market went into 2024 expecting six Fed cuts.

The reality is that the US economy is simply not slowing down, and the Fed pivot has provided a strong tailwind to growth since December.

As a result, the Fed will not cut rates this year, and rates are going to stay higher for longer.

How do we come to this conclusion?

1) The economy is not slowing down, it is reaccelerating. Growth expectations for 2024 saw a big jump following the Fed pivot in December and the associated easing in financial conditions. Growth expectations for the US continue to be revised higher.

2) Underlying measures of trend inflation are moving higher.

3) Supercore inflation, a measure of inflation preferred by Fed Chair Powell, is trending higher.

4) Following the Fed pivot in December, the labor market remains tight, jobless claims are very low, and wage inflation is sticky between 4% and 5%.

5) Surveys of small businesses show that more small businesses are planning to raise selling prices.

6) Manufacturing surveys show a higher trend in prices paid, another leading indicator of inflation.

7) ISM services prices paid is also trending higher.

8) Surveys of small businesses show that more small businesses are planning to raise worker compensation.

9) Asking rents are rising, and more cities are seeing rising rents, and home prices are rising, see the ninth, tenth, and eleventh charts.

10) Financial conditions continue to ease following the Fed pivot in December with record-high IG issuance, high HY issuance, IPO activity rising, M&A activity rising, and tight credit spreads and the stock market reaching new all-time highs. With financial conditions easing significantly, it is not surprising that we saw strong nonfarm payrolls and inflation in January, and we should expect the strength to continue.

As Slok concludes, “the bottom line is that the Fed will spend most of 2024 fighting inflation. As a result, yield levels in fixed income will stay high.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 13:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/6nOU42p Tyler Durden

Trudeau Govt. Virologists Who Transferred Ebola To Wuhan Had “Clandestine Relationship” With Chinese Agents, Bombshell Intel Reveals

Trudeau Govt. Virologists Who Transferred Ebola To Wuhan Had “Clandestine Relationship” With Chinese Agents, Bombshell Intel Reveals

A cache of documents from Canada’s top intelligence services reveals that Trudeau government virologists had a “clandestine relationship” with Chinese agents, the Counter Signal reports.

Officials concluded that Xiangguo Qiu and her husband “a realistic and credible threat to Canada’s economic security”, a newspaper report said. Photo: Handout

Xiangguo Qiu and her husband, Keding Cheng – two scientists at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, Canada were stripped of their security clearances and fired over questions about their loyalty to Canada, as well as the potential for coercion or exploitation by a foreign entity, according to more than 600 pages of documents made public Wednesday.

Highlights (via CTVNews.ca):

  • Qiu and Cheng were escorted out of Winnipeg’s National Microbiology Laboratory in July 2019 and subsequently fired in January 2021.
  • The pair transferred deadly Ebola and Henipah viruses to China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology in March 2019.
  • The Canadian Security Intelligence Service assessed that Qiu repeatedly lied about the extent of her work with institutions of the Chinese government and refused to admit involvement in various Chinese programs, even when evidence was presented to her.
  • [D]espite being given every opportunity in her interviews to describe her association with Chinese entities, “Ms. Qiu continued to make blanket denials, feign ignorance or tell outright lies.”
  • A November 2020 Public Health Agency of Canada report on Qiu says investigators “weighed the adverse information and are in agreement with the CSIS assessment.”
  • A Public Health Agency report on Cheng’s activities says he allowed restricted visitors to work in laboratories unescorted and on at least two occasions did not prevent the unauthorized removal of laboratory materials.
  • Cheng was not forthcoming about his activities and collaborations with people from government agencies “of another country, namely members of the People’s Republic of China.”

But wait, it goes much deeper than that… As The Counter Signal reports (subscribe here to support):

Alongside selling deadly pathogens to Chinese authorities at the Wuhan Institute of Virology for just $75, Qui was also found to have hidden a Chinese bank account from CSIS.

“Further to our security assessment […], the Service assesses that Ms. Qiu developed deep, cooperative relationships with a variety of People’s Republic of China (PRC) institutions and has intentionally transferred scientific knowledge and materials to China in order to benefit the PRC Government, and herself, without regard for the implications to her employer or to Canada’s interests.”

It is clear that Ms. Qiu […] made efforts to conceal her projects with PRC institutions. The Service further assesses that because of her extensive knowledge of the harmful effects of dangerous pathogens on human health, Ms. Qiu should have been aware of the possibility that her efforts to engage clandestinely with the PRC in these research areas could harm Canadian interests or international security.”

“Ms. Qiu repeatedly lied in her security screening interviews about the extent of her work with institutions of the PRC Government and refused to admit to any involvement in various PRC programs, even when documents [REDACTED] were put before her.”

“The Service also assesses that Ms. Qiu was reckless in her dealings with various PRC entities, particularly in her lack of respect for proper scientific protocols regarding the transfer of pathogens and in working with institutions whose goals have potentially lethal military applications that are manifestly not in the interests of Canada or its citizens.” 

Qiu was shown to have given China agents direct access to Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory, a Biosafety Level 4 facility which houses Canada’s most secret and secure pathogenic diseases. These pathogens can be used in weaponry. 

“Ms. Qiu also gave access to the [National Microbiology Laboratory] to at least two employees of a PRC institution whose work is not aligned with Canadian interests,” they stated.

Secretly working for Wuhan Lab

CSIS also found that Qui was actively working with the Chinese Wuhan Virology Lab on a project that CSIS redacted and called “Project 1.” This project started January 1, 2019, just three months before she sent a shipment of materials to the Wuhan lab, and the project involved the study of mRNA vaccines.

Project 2 was cited by CSIS as being a “cross-species infection” program that could have been used for Gain-of-Function research into bat viruses.

Read the rest here…

“Under Justin Trudeau’s watch, the PRC and its entities, including the People’s Liberation Army, were allowed to infiltrate Canada’s top level lab. They were able to transfer sensitive intellectual property and dangerous pathogens to the PRC,” reads a statement from Pierre Poilievere, leader of Canada’s Conservative Party.

“Based on its own assessment, the Liberal government allowed a person who is “a very serious and credible danger” and “a realistic and credible threat to Canada’s economic security” to access and compromise our country’s top level lab, which works with some of the world’s most dangerous viruses, such as Ebola.”

“This is a massive national security failure by Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government, which he fought tooth and nail to cover up,” the opposition leader continued.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 13:25

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Macron Doubles-Down On NATO Sending Troops To Ukraine Remarks

Macron Doubles-Down On NATO Sending Troops To Ukraine Remarks

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday stood behind his comments about NATO not ruling out sending troops to Ukraine despite the uproar it caused and the warning it drew from Russia.

“These are sufficiently serious issues; every one of the words that I say on this issue is weighed, thought through, and measured,” Macron told reporters.

Via AP

Following a meeting of European leaders on the Ukrainian proxy war on Monday, Macron said, “There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out.”

His comments appeared to confirm a warning from Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, an opponent of NATO support for Ukraine, who said earlier that some NATO members were considering sending troops to Ukraine on a “bilateral basis.”

Macron’s comments caused many NATO members to refute the idea that they’re considering sending combat troops to Ukraine, although it’s an open secret that there are a small number of NATO special operations forces already in the country.

One NATO country that backed up Macron is Lithuania, the Baltic nation that borders Kaliningrad and has an active duty military that only consists of only about 15,000 troops.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis welcomed Macron’s comments, saying, “No option can be rejected out of hand.” The country’s defense minister, Arvydas Anušauskas, said troops could potentially be sent to Ukraine for training, not for combat.

The Kremlin has warned that the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine would make a direct Russia-NATO war inevitable. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is on “full combat alert.”

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 13:05

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Navalny’s Funeral Draws Thousands, But Ends Peacefully & Without Incident

Navalny’s Funeral Draws Thousands, But Ends Peacefully & Without Incident

The funeral and burial of Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny has been completed without incident Friday at a neighborhood church in a Moscow district.

Many reports cited “thousands” of mourners and supporters present, while CNN said there were “many hundreds” that converged on Borisovsky cemetery. Some mourners chanted “Thank you for your son” to his mother Lyudmila Navalnaya and others yelled anti-war slogans, with yet fewer reportedly shouted “Putin is a murderer”

Via CNN

But things stayed peaceful and organized, which was a big question given Moscow authorities were reportedly worried Navalny’s public funeral could turn into a large anti-Putin protest later.

His legal team had previously announced: “Thousands of people are coming to bid their farewell. There will be a small pause now. The grave is being completely covered over. Wreaths will be laid. And then everyone can enter [the cemetery].”

While there was a heavy Moscow police presence at the funeral proceedings, only one person has been reported detained after he’s said to have shouted while waiting in line to see the grave, “Who killed Navalny?” 

Several police vans have pulled up to the Borisovskoye cemetery, and at least one person waiting in line to see Navalny’s grave was reportedly detained after he shouted “Who killed Navalny?” 

Nationwide, regional media said at least 21 people were arrested at pop-up memorial events for Navalny’s passing. According to some of the international reaction via CNN Friday:

  • European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell expressed condolences to Navalny’s family and friends in a post on X, formerly Twitter. He said the EU ambassador to Russia is among several European diplomats attending the funeral. “Navalny’s beliefs will not disappear – ideas cannot be tortured, poisoned or killed. He remains an inspiration for many in Russia and beyond,” he wrote. 
  • The United Kingdom’s Foreign Minister David Cameron wrote on X: “Putin tried to silence Alexey Navalny. But the world was watching. On the day of his funeral, we remember his spirit of defiance in the face of brutality from the Russian regime, and his courage in standing up to corruption. We must continue to hold Russia to account.”
  • Poland’s embassy in Russia posted that its ambassador to Russia was one of several to attend the service and also said Russian police were blocking mourners from entering the church. “The police block the entrance to the Orthodox church. Ambassador Krajewski among colleagues from New Zealand, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, France and Australia. Crowds of people are trying to bid farewell to the opposition leader. R.I.P,” it said. The post was reposted by the Polish foreign ministry.

Coverage of the anti-Putin activist’s funeral has taken over the front pages of several mainstream US media news sites, following his death last month in a Russian far northern prison.

These outlets have tended to emphasize the potential for an ‘opposition’ uprising in Russia inspired by Navalny. For example the WSJ introduced:

Thousands of people defied the threat of arrest by attending the funeral of Alexei Navalny in Moscow, embracing one of the last remaining avenues to register their anger at President Vladimir Putin as well as mourning one of the few politicians capable of standing up to the Russian leader.

The Kremlin had warned Russians against attending what it called spontaneous memorials for the opposition leader, who died in an Arctic prison camp last month. But security forces largely took a hands-off approach to the procession of mourners that made its way from the Church of the Icon of the Mother of God to the cemetery where Navalny was laid to rest

Some in the crowd shouted, “No to war.” Others joined in with calls of “Putin is a murderer” and “Free political prisoners.”

Meanwhile The Associated Press and others have been declaring his widow Yulia Navalnaya as Russia’s “newest opposition leader” – in what appears a kind of Juan Guaidó moment to manufacture ‘mass support’ and ‘popularity’, though Alexei Navalny himself never polled more than two percent among the Russian population.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 03/01/2024 – 12:45

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