Whiskey Rich: Luxury Liquor Trumps Stocks & Art Over Past Decade
Some of the world’s ultra-wealthy spend their money on luxury goods such as fine wines, expensive watches, or one-of-a-kind art pieces as a passion, but others consider them investments – and their returns do often end up paying off.
Visual Capitalist’s Marcus Lu dives into the 10-year performance of various luxury good classes as of Q4 2023, according to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index released as part of the 2024 Wealth Report. The 10-year return of the S&P 500 was included for additional context.
Rare Whisky Bottles Have Outperformed the S&P 500 Since 2013
Knight Frank’s index uses the weighted average of each individual asset, tracking sales of reference brands and pieces for each asset.
Over the past 10 years, rare whisky (or whiskey, depending on where it was made) has been the best performing luxury asset, appreciating by 280% and even besting the S&P 500.
Numerous sale records have been broken at auctions since COVID-19, with collectors sometimes shelling out millions for a single bottle. In November 2023 for example, a bottle of The Macallan Valerio Adami 60 Year Old (of which only 40 bottles were produced) sold for $2.7 million at a Sotheby’s auction. Before bidding commenced, Sotheby’s had given the bottle a high estimate of $1.5M.
Fine wine and luxury watches were the next two best performing luxury goods by 10-year returns, at +146% and +138% respectively.
At the bottom were jewelry (+37%), such as rings and necklaces, and colored diamonds (+8%), including rare pink and blue diamonds.
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolds, drones have transcended traditional weaponry, emerging as pivotal agents of change in modern combat. Their deployment has not only diversified tactics on the battlefield but also heightened concerns over the potential for autonomous drones to elude human oversight, posing unprecedented risks to global security. Experts underscore the necessity for stringent human control and regulatory oversight over AI-equipped drones and other autonomous lethal armaments.
The utilization of drones in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been widely documented, showcasing scenarios where drones, after identifying and locking onto targets such as tanks, execute self-destructive attacks. These aerial devices also execute high-altitude bombings, targeting trenches and other military installations. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces frequently publish such footage, underscoring the drone’s instrumental role in shaping contemporary warfare dynamics.
In a column titled “How the Drone War in Ukraine Is Transforming Conflict,” published by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations in January, the transformative impact of drones was highlighted. The commentary emphasized how small, potent, and user-friendly drones have demonstrated their strategic superiority on the battlefield, prompting a global surge in drone adoption within military strategies.
Military commentator Xia Loshan, in a discussion with The Epoch Times, remarked on the strategic advantages of drones, stating, “A cost-effective, portable quadcopter drone, equipped to deliver ammunition, can penetrate deep into enemy lines without risking soldier lives, offering precision and efficiency.”
In this aerial image, people inspect destroyed Russian military vehicles by the side of a road in Dmytrivka, Ukraine on April 21, 2022. (Alexey Furman/Getty Images)
Mr. Xia further noted the expanding utility of unmanned technologies across various domains, including aerial, maritime, underwater, and terrestrial operations, underscoring their revolutionary impact on future military engagements.
“A drone costing just a few thousand dollars can effectively neutralize an advanced tank worth over 5 million dollars,” Mr. Xia said, illustrating a remarkable disparity in warfare economics.
Drones’ ease of manufacture, low detection and radar interception rates, and precision targeting via satellite data further accentuate their tactical viability. Importantly, drones facilitate offensive operations without compromising soldier safety, marking a significant evolution in how military objectives are pursued.
The Emergence of AI Weapons: A Dual-Edged Sword for Humanity
The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and drone technology have ushered in a new era of warfare, raising profound ethical and existential questions. Among the most pressing concerns is the potential for the development of AI weapons capable of autonomously making lethal decisions.
Geoffrey Hinton, a British-Canadian computer scientist renowned for his contributions to AI and often dubbed the “godfather of AI,” has voiced his apprehensions about the trajectory of AI development.
British-Canadian cognitive psychologist and computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, known as the ‘godfather of AI’ speaks with technology journalist and CEO of The Atlantic Nick Thompson (R) during the Collision Tech Conference at the Enercare Centre in Toronto, Canada, on June 28, 2023. (Geoff Robins/AFP via Getty Images)
In a recent dialogue with Japanese media, Mr. Hinton elucidated the dual-edged nature of AI’s evolution. He underscored the danger inherent in AI systems that, if tasked with grand-scale objectives like climate objectives, might identify humanity itself as the problem. Furthermore, Mr. Hinton highlighted the inevitability of AI systems growing more sophisticated as they engage in competition, potentially leading to scenarios where they could manipulate human actions to avoid being disabled.
Alarmingly, Mr. Hinton speculates that within the next decade, we could witness the advent of AI weapons capable of independently targeting and eliminating humans. He draws a parallel with the history of chemical warfare, suggesting that the international community may only seek to restrict AI weapons following catastrophic consequences, mirroring the reactive measures taken after World War I.
Echoing Mr. Hinton’s concerns, military expert Mr. Xia points out that AI’s potential threat to humanity is not a new concept. He references the AI program “AlphaGo’s” victories over human champions in Go as an early indicator. However, the integration of AI into weapon systems presents an immediate and grave danger.
Mr. Xia argues that AI’s capability to enhance weapon system efficiency, coupled with advances in sensor, communication, and computing technologies, is pushing us toward the deployment of fully autonomous AI-controlled weapons.
“What people are really worried about is that one day AI might control and even enslave humans,” Mr. Xia added.
The United States has adopted a cautious stance on this issue, insisting on the inclusion of human oversight in any decision-making process involving lethal force. It has also launched a global initiative to establish ethical guidelines for AI use.
Yet, the lack of unanimous agreement among nations, with significant powers like China, Russia, and North Korea abstaining, poses a formidable challenge. The partial adherence to these ethical principles, Mr. Xia warns, could lead to a perilous lack of constraints on AI in military applications, posing a significant risk to global security and humanity’s future.
A Ukrainian serviceman of an air reconnaissance squad of the 45th Brigade prepares to launch a Leleka reconnaissance UAV on a position in Donetsk region of Ukraine on June 27, 2023. (Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)
The Surge in Small Drone Demand: A New Era in Warfare
In a notable development earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the creation of a specialized drone department within the Ukrainian military. This initiative aims to domestically produce 1 million drones within the year, highlighting the growing reliance on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in modern conflict zones.
Ukraine’s commitment to enhancing its drone capabilities is evident, with over 200 companies currently engaged in drone production. The war effort has even seen civilian-crafted drones being deployed to the front lines, with estimates suggesting a demand of 10,000 drones per month to sustain operations.
The escalation of drone production in Ukraine, which saw a 16.8-fold increase following the Russian invasion, mirrors a broader trend in military technology. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also emphasized the strategic importance of drones, advocating for the accelerated development of dual-use UAVs. This focus on drone technology is indicative of the changing dynamics of warfare, where unmanned systems are playing increasingly critical roles.
A military operator walks past DJI Matrice 300 reconnaissance drones, bought in the frame of the program ‘The Army of Drones’ set up ready for test flights prior to being sent to the front line in the Kyiv region on Aug. 2, 2022. (Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images)
At a recent defense industry exhibition in Singapore, which ranks among Asia’s largest, military representatives from around the globe were briefed on the latest advancements in drone technology. American manufacturers showcased the Switchblade 300, a compact drone designed for kamikaze missions, which has been supplied to Ukraine by the United States.
The drone, capable of destroying targets up to 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) away through a suicide attack, exemplifies the tactical versatility and demand for UAVs capable of precision strikes.
An Israeli innovation that captured attention at the exhibition was a “next-generation” drone by Elbit Systems, capable of autonomous flight up to 24 hours. This development underscores the global appetite for advanced drone capabilities, with calls for new features growing louder.
The conflict in Ukraine has served as a catalyst for nations worldwide, including the United States, Europe, Japan, and China, to accelerate their drone development programs and integrate UAVs into their strategic planning. Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, for instance, have analyzed drone usage in Ukraine to devise countermeasures and anticipate a future where drones could potentially replace manned combat helicopters.
Professor Seigo Iwamoto from Kyoto Sangyo University describes small drones as “the poor man’s air force,” highlighting their affordability and accessibility. He notes the proliferation of drones among various armed groups, equating their impact on warfare to that of firearms. This democratization of aerial technology could lead to increased casualties in escalated conflicts.
Amidst growing tensions, Mr. Xia remarks on the strategic positioning between the U.S. and China, with the Pentagon’s “Replicator” program aiming to utilize a multitude of small, intelligent, and cost-effective platforms. This initiative seeks to counterbalance China’s numerical superiority in ships, missiles, and personnel, showcasing the strategic pivot towards leveraging drone technology in global military strategies.
CBO Director Warns Of Debt Market Meltdown With US Debt Is On “Unprecedented” Trajectory
We’ve been pointing it out for so long – in fact, for most of our 15 years in existence – that it has become more of a chore than actual reporting, especially since the “number only go up“, as it hits a new all time high virtually every day. We are talking, of course, about the exponential curve that is the US debt, arguably one of the most boring and at the same time, most exciting topics of all time (because one day the “number go upno more” and you want to be far, far away when that happens).
Perhaps the catchiest observation we made on the trajectory of US debt was last September when we first noted that it is rising by $1 trillion every three months, or every 100 or so days…
Total US Debt surpasses $33 trillion for the first time.
For those keeping tabs, the US added $1 trillion in debt in three (3) months. pic.twitter.com/9eJVnX1YnZ
… a soundbite which has since been picked up and stolen by pretty much everyone else in the media, if with the usual 6+ month lag behind us.
Not only has it gotten boring to be ahead of the curve by almost half a year, but pretty much every possible warning that could be said about the exponential increase in the US debt has been – well – said.
And yet, every now and then we are surprised by the latest developments surrounding the unsustainable, exponential trajectory of US debt. Like, for example, the establishment admitting that it is on an unsustainable, exponential trajectory.
That’s precisely what happened overnight when in an interview with the oh so very serious Financial Times (which has done everything in its power to keep its readers out of the best performing asset class of all time, bitcoin), the director of the Congressional Budget Office, Phillip Swagel, issued a stark warning that the United States could suffer a similar market crisis as seen in the United Kingdom 18 months ago, during former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s brief stint leading Britain – which briefly sent yields soaring, sparked a run on the pound, led to an immediate restart of QE by the Bank of England and a bailout of various pension funds, not to mention the almost instant resignation of Truss – citing the nation’s “unprecedented” fiscal trajectory.
The striking words from the head of the CBO, best known perhaps for publishing doomer debt/GDP projection charts such as this one…
… warned of the dangers of the U.S. facing “what the U.K. faced with former prime minister Truss — where policymakers tried to take an action, and then there’s a market reaction to that action”, comes as US government debt continues to break records, fueling concerns about the burden that places on the economy and taking a toll on America’s credit rating.
As a reminder, in September 2022, Truss roiled markets as she pressed for significant tax cuts, including changes lessening the tax burden on wealthier individuals without offsets, as well as other economic measures. The budget proposal spurred a major selloff of British debt, forcing U.K. interest rates to decades-long highs and causing the value of the pound to tank. While Truss defended her agenda as a means to spur economic growth, she stepped down as prime minister after less than two months on the job following the market revolt to her administration.
Meanwhile, it was up to the Bank of England to bail everyone out: the central bank intervened in the market, pledging to buy gilts on “whatever scale is necessary” with Dave Ramsden, a senior official at the central bank, saying at the time that “were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability.”
Needless to say, by bringing up the catastrophic rule of Truss, who for at least a few days tried to impose a regime of fiscal and monetary austerity which immediately blew up the UK bond market and led to an instant market crisis, Swagel is admitting that there is nothing that can be done to reverse the growth of US debt and to make what is already an exponential chart less exponential. Quite the opposite, in fact.
And while Swagel said the U.S. is “not there yet,” he raised concerns of how bond markets could fare as interest rates have climbed. Specifically, he warned that as higher interest rates raise the cost of paying its creditors, on track to reach $1 trillion per year in 2026, bond markets could “snap back.”
Well, we have some bad news, because if one calculates total US interest on an actual, annualized basis… we don’t have to wait until 2026, we are there already and then some.
Indeed, it seems like it was just yesterday when everyone was talking about US debt interest surpassing $1 trillion (and more than all US defense spending). Well, hold on to your hats, because as of this month, total US interest is now $1.1 trillion, and rising by $100 billion every 4 months (we should probably trademark this before everyone else steals it too).
According to the CBO, US government debt is set to keep rising. “Such large and growing debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of US debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook,” it said in a report last week. “It could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices.”
Only that will never happen, because a politician who is “constrained” in their policy choices – one who doesn’t feed the entitlements beast in hopes of winning votes (while generously spreading pork for friends and family) – is a politician who is fired.
Perhaps afraid he would sound too much like ZeroHedge, the CBO director left a glimmer of hope, saying that the nation has “the potential for some changes that seem modest — or maybe start off modest and then get more serious — to have outsized effects on interest rates, and therefore on the fiscal trajectory.” But we doubt even he believes it.
In the CBO’s long-term budget outlook report released last week, the budget agency projected the national deficit would rise “significantly in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5 percent of GDP in 2054.” Which of course, is laughable: the US deficit is already at 6.5% of GDP – a level that traditionally implied there is a major economic crisis – and yet here we are, with unemployment *reportedly* at just 3.8%. Said otherwise, the US deficit will – with 100% certainty – hit 8.5% of GDP during the next recession which will likely be triggered as soon as Trump wins the November election.
The budget scorekeeper attributed the projected growth to rising interest costs, as well as “large and sustained primary deficits, which exclude net outlays for interest.” In short, everything is already going to hell to keep “Bidenomics” afloat, but when you also throw in the interest on the debt, well.. that’s game over man.
Socialists, and other liberals who are only good at spending other people’s money and selling debt until the reserve currency finally breaks, quickly sprung to defense of the debt black hole that the US economy has become.
Bobby Kogan, senior director of federal budget policy at the communist-leaning Center for American Progress think tank, pointed to improved deficit projections in recent years, as well as forecasts from the CBO he said “don’t project anything that looks like a panic.”
“If someone were thinking about, ‘Should I panic or should I not panic?’ I would just say, ‘hey, the underlying situation has gotten better, right?’” Kogan said, adding “there’s been lower, long-term projected deficits in the Biden administration.”
Instead of responding, we will again just show the latest CBO debt forecast chart and leave it up to readers to decide if they should panic or not.
What Kogan said next, however, was chilling: “You either should have been worried a long time ago, or you should be less worried now,” he said. “Because we’ve been on roughly the same path for forever, but to the extent that it’s different, it’s better.”
Actually no, it’s not better. It much, much worse, and the fact that supposedly “serious people” are idiots and make such statements is stunning because, well, these are the people in charge!
But he is certainly right that “you should have been worried a long time ago” – we were very worried, and everyone laughed at us, so we decided – you know what, it’s not worth the effort, may as well sit back and watch it all sink.
And now bitcoin is at a record $72,000 on its way to $1 million and gold is at a record $2,200 also on its way to… pick some nice round number…. in fact the number doesn’t matter if it is denominated in US dollars because very soon, the greenback will go the way of the reichsmark.
And just to make sure that nothing will ever change, even after the US enters the infamous Minsky Moment, shortly after the close we got this headline::
*UNITED STATES AA+ RATING AFFIRMED BY S&P; OUTLOOK STABLE
Because when nobody dares to tell the truth, why should anything change?
A controversial measure to include $15 million for the electronic tracking of livestock has made it through Congress via the recently passed omnibus bill, raising fears among critics that the new system could be weaponized by the government to limit beef consumption.
American cattle rancher Shad Sullivan told The Epoch Times that he fears that the electronic tags will be the end of the small rancher.
“They are going to use it as a taxing mechanism to eventually control the livestock,” Mr. Sullivan said. “In the European Union, they used these measures under the guise of climate change lies to limit the cattle supply, and if they do that here, it will destroy our industry.
“If the tag mandate is implemented it will be the key to open the door to the gas chamber for independent ranching.”
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who owns livestock, also sounded the alarm that the move could lead to the erosion of the industry.
In a previous post, Mr. Massie wrote that, if passed, the electronic tracking “will be used by the GREEN agenda to limit beef production, and by the corporate meat oligopoly to DOMINATE small ranchers.”
The omnibus bill, which was passed on March 22, combines six essential spending bills into one and includes text that allocates $15 million to “related infrastructure” needed for the program.
The full text of the provision reads: “The agreement directs the Department to continue to provide the tag and related infrastructure needed to comply with the Federal Animal Disease Traceability rule, including no less than $15,000,000 for electronic identification (EID) tags and related infrastructure needed for stakeholders to comply with the proposed rule, ‘Use of Electronic Identification Eartags as Official Identification in Cattle and Bison,’ should that rule be finalized.”
Since its initial proposal last year, the mandate for electronic ear tags for cattle and bison crossing state lines has stirred controversy, particularly among small ranchers. They fear that the added costs, which large corporate ranchers can absorb, will drive many smaller operations out of business.
Currently, most livestock are tracked using tags that display 11-digit numbers, which are both visible and trackable. On Jan. 19, 2023, the Federal Register published proposed regulations to mandate the inclusion of radio-frequency identification in ear tags. These enhanced tags must be “both visually and electronically readable” to be recognized as official for the interstate movement of cattle and bison.
“Livestock,” under the regulation of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service; includes all sexually intact cattle and bison 18 months of age and older; all female dairy cattle of any age; all male dairy cattle born after March 11, 2013; cattle and bison of any age used for rodeo or recreational events; and cattle and bison of any age used for shows or exhibitions, according to the proposal.
Since 2003, following the discovery of the first case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, also known as mad cow disease, in the United States, ranchers have been pushed to adopt electronic identification tags for livestock movement. The cattle industry has been gradually advancing toward enhanced traceability rules and technology ever since.
However, the federal mandating of electronic ear tags would place unnecessary and punitive costs on American ranchers while also further raising the price of beef, according to Justin Tupper, president of the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association.
“It is another example of ridiculous spending,” Mr. Tupper told the Epoch Times. “If they are going to use these funds to hand out free tags to those who would want them then there would be no real harm, but that is not what it looks like they are doing here.
“Instead they are going to give them to the big tag companies to shove down our throat to mandate it, which is an entirely different thing.”
A new mandate on livestock would only add another obstacle to an industry already decimated by regulations and drought.
The beef cattle supply has already dropped to its lowest point in decades, raising the price of beef to another all-time high and renewing concerns over the long-term health of the nation’s farming community. A series of severe droughts, coupled with government policies that continue to favor large, industrial food processors, has reduced the nation’s supply of beef cattle to a level not seen since the early 1950s, according to Mr. Tupper.
Lawmakers slipped the funding for the electronic ear tag infrastructure into a single paragraph in the omnibus bill, which allowed lawmakers to pass legislation without the scrutiny that would normally occur and is another example of the increasingly intrusive role the federal government has in the lives of the independent ranchers, he said.
“Anything that is mandated we are going to push back very hard against,” Mr. Tupper said. “We always have to be aware of who controls the data.
“We are well aware of the fact that data can exert a tremendous amount of control over the nation’s livestock.”
The provision could also be the beginning of the end for the independent American rancher, according to Mr. Sullivan.
“The beef industry is the last bastion of freedom,” he said. “Ranchers across the nation have to stand up. If not, these tags will be the end of the small rancher.”
India has applied to the International Seabed Authority (ISA) for two new licenses to explore parts of the Indian Ocean sea bed for minerals crucial to the green energy transition. If they are granted, India would hold four contracts, making it the country with the second highest number of active contracts for deep sea mining exploration projects in the world.
There are currently 31 contracts that have been signed off on by the ISA, 30 of which are active, and each of which last 15 years. Several of these involve governmental entities – for example, the Government of India, the Government of Poland, the Government of the Republic of Korea all appear on the ISA website. However, the majority are private companies that have so far directly engaged in contracts for deep-sea mining with the ISA.
There are three main categories of deep sea mineral exploration: finding and collecting polymetallic nodules (PMN), polymetallic sulfides (PMS) and cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts (CFC) in the deep seabed. India’s two new proposed contracts apply to the latter two methods, first for the exploration of PMS in the Carlsberg Ridge of the Central Indian Ocean and secondly for the exploration of CFC in the deep seabed of the Afanasy-Nikitin Seamount in the Central Indian Ocean.
According to the ISA, the majority of companies looking into seabed exploration are focused on polymetallic nodules (19; with 17 of these focused on the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone), followed by polymetallic sulfides (7) in the Southwest Indian Ridge, Central Indian Ridge and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and then only 5 companies looking into polymetallic crusts in the Western Pacific Ocean.
As Gaby Ramirez’s article for Unbias the News outlines, the issue of deep sea mining is a complex and divisive one. Supporters argue that in order to manage a successful green transition, we will need more of these precious metals and fast. Critics argue, on the other hand, that far more information is needed before further action can be taken, namely on how such extractions will impact the environment of what has been called the “final frontier” of the Earth.
“Used by governments and Big Tech to shape public opinion by restricting certain viewpoints or promoting others’: report
The National Science Foundation is paying universities using taxpayer money to create AI tools that can be used to censor Americans on various social media platforms, according to members of the House.
University of Michigan, the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and MIT are among the universities cited in the House Judiciary Committee and the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government interim report.
It details the foundation’s “funding of AI-powered censorship and propaganda tools, and its repeated efforts to hide its actions and avoid political and media scrutiny.”
“NSF has been issuing multi-million-dollar grants to university and non-profit research teams” for the purpose of developing AI-powered technologies “that can be used by governments and Big Tech to shape public opinion by restricting certain viewpoints or promoting others,” states the report, released last month.
Funding for the projects began in 2021 and was issued through the NSF’s Convergence Accelerator grant program, which was initially launched in 2019 to develop interdisciplinary solutions to major challenges of national and societal importance such as those pertaining to AI and quantum technology, it states.
In 2021, however, the NSF introduced “Track F: Trust & Authenticity in Communication Systems.”
The NSF’s 2021 Convergence Accelerator program solicitation stated the goal of Track F projects was to “develop prototype(s) of novel research platforms forming integrated collection(s) of tools, techniques, and educational materials and programs to support increased citizen trust in public information of all sorts (health, climate, news, etc.), through more effectively preventing, mitigating, and adapting to critical threats in our communications systems.”
Specifically, the grant solicitation singled out the threats posed by hackers and misinformation.
That September, the select subcommittee report notes, the NSF awarded “twelve Track F teams $750,000 each (a total of $9 million) to develop and refine their project ideas and build partnerships.” The following year, the NSF selected six of the 12 teams to receive an additional $5 million each for their respective projects, according to the report.
Projects from the University of Michigan, University of Wisconsin-Madison, MIT, and Meedan, a nonprofit that specializes in developing software to counter misinformation, are highlighted by the select subcommittee.
Collectively, these four projects received $13 million from the NSF, it states.
“The University of Michigan intended to use the federal funding to develop its tool ‘WiseDex,’ which could use AI technology to assess the veracity of content on social media and assist large social media platforms with what content should be removed or otherwise censored,” it states.
The University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Course Correct, which was featured in an article from The College Fix last year, was “intended to aid reporters, public health organizations, election administration officials, and others to address so-called misinformation on topics such as U.S. elections and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.”
MIT’s Search Lit, as described in the select subcommittee’s report, was developed as an intervention to help educate groups of Americans the researchers believed were most vulnerable to misinformation such as conservatives, minorities, rural Americans, older adults, and military families.
Meedan, according to its website, used its funding to develop “easy-to-use, mobile-friendly tools [that] will allow AAPI [Asian-American and Pacific Islander] community members to forward potentially harmful content to tiplines and discover relevant context explainers, fact-checks, media literacy materials, and other misinformation interventions.”
According to the select committee’s report, “Once empowered with taxpayer dollars, the pseudo-science researchers wield the resources and prestige bestowed upon them by the federal government against any entities that resist their censorship projects.”
“In some instances,” the report states, “if a social media company fails to act fast enough to change a policy or remove what the researchers perceive to be misinformation on its platform, disinformation researchers will issue blogposts or formal papers to ‘generate a communications moment’ (i.e., negative press coverage) for the platform, seeking to coerce it into compliance with their demands.”
Efforts were made via email to contact senior members of the three university research teams, as well as a representative from Meedan, regarding the portrayal of their work in the select subcommittee’s report.
Paul Resnick, who serves as the WiseDex project director at the University of Michigan, referred The College Fix to the WiseDex website.
“Social media companies have policies against harmful misinformation. Unfortunately, enforcement is uneven, especially for non-English content,” states the site. “WiseDex harnesses the wisdom of crowds and AI techniques to help flag more posts [than humans can]. The result is more comprehensive, equitable, and consistent enforcement, significantly reducing the spread of misinformation.”
A video on the site presents the tool as a means to help social media sites flag posts that violate platform policies and subsequently attach warnings to or remove the posts. Posts portraying approved COVID-19 vaccines as potentially dangerous are used as an example.
Michael Wagner from the University of Wisconsin-Madison also responded to The Fix, writing, “It is interesting to be included in a report that claims to be about censorship when our project censors exactly no one.”
According to the select subcommittee report, some of the researchers associated with Track F and similar projects, however, privately acknowledged efforts to combat misinformation were inherently political and a form of censorship.
Yet, following negative coverage of Track F projects, depicting them as politically motivated and their products as government-funded censorship tools, the report notes, the NSF began discussing media and outreach strategy with grant recipients.
Notes from a pair of Track F media strategy planning sessions included in Appendix B of the select subcommittee’s report recommended researchers, when interacting with the media, focus on the “pro-democracy” and “non-ideological” nature of their work, “Give examples of both sides,” and “use sports metaphors.”
The select subcommittee report also highlights that there were discussions of having a media blacklist, although at least one researcher from the University of Michigan objected to this, citing the potential optics.
“Zero Critical Reasoning”: Employers Say GenZ “Toxic” For Companies
A new report has found that 68% of small business owners say Gen Z employees are the “least reliable,” while 71% say they’re most likely to have a mental health issue in the workplace.
One of the employers surveyed spoke of Gen Z’s “absolute delusion, complete lack of common sense, and zero critical reasoning or basic analytical skills,” according to the Freedom Economy Index report conducted by PublicSquare and RedBalloon this month.
Less than 4% of those surveyed said Gen Z was the generation that most aligns with their workplace culture, while 62% said Gen Z’s were most likely to create division and toxicity in the workplace.
Another employer surveyed said the generation is “expecting promotions for simply showing up every day.”
What’s more, 57% of those surveyed said that Gen Z runs the most risk of creating a workplace lawsuit.
Newsweek has come out in defense of Gen Z, citing two experts who say the kids are just misunderstood.
Dan Space, an HR consultant who runs DanFromHR.com, said since the study reflects the feelings of small business owners, it could be skewed. These types of businesses often do not pay well or offer a high-quality company culture, he said, and Gen Z tends to look for those in any type of role or career they take on, he said.
“Gen Z is one of the most informed, confident and no BS generation because they saw what happened to the millennials before them,” Space told Newsweek.
“Being told to go to college to get a great job, graduating with up to hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, with zero tools to get a job, land somewhere and not be given the information on salaries, career development, moving towards compensation models that use mixed variations….So I find they are just far more comfortable with not putting up with this BS and being informed,” Space continued.
Space conceded that Gen Zers are most likely to have mental health issues, ‘but he does believe they are more likely to be confident in discussing it and drawing boundaries,’ Newsweek reports.
Excerpted from Chapter 5, “Fossil Fuels Paving the Way to the Green Meadow”
“If Trudeau was here, I’d tell him this coffee is made of oil,” Rafi Tahmazian commented wryly as he poured a cup for each of us. I was sitting with Tahmazian, one of the world’s finest energy asset managers, in his office in Calgary in November 2021. “Machines to grow it and harvest it, vehicles to transport it, more machines to pack it, electricity to roast and grind the beans, heat to boil the water,” he continued. “It doesn’t happen with pixie dust, old pal. It happens with crude oil.”
I could hear emails chiming into his inbox as he spoke. He runs the investment division at Canoe Financial, a $2 billion management firm focused on oil, mining, and natural gas. He wasn’t political in his views, but he’d firmly maintained a single belief for many years: “The entire planet is run by crude oil. Everything we touch. Everything we consume. It’s nothing to do with politics. It’s pragmatism. And this war on the supply side of oil is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen.”
The COVID-19 pandemic changed the oil sector, perhaps for a decade. In 2020, demand dried up like a drop of water on a hot copper pan. The oil markets crashed, sending West Texas Intermediate oil to $0 a barrel. Companies right across the industry switched off their wells, turned off their equipment, and sent their employees home to collect unemployment checks. Even the highways emptied, and Manhattan on a Saturday night didn’t have a car horn within earshot. The Gen Zers and millennials were convinced that the energy future was not in the dirty oil patch anymore, that it would be different somehow, free of carbon emissions in a new electrified world, and the gas-guzzling cars of the last hundred years would be towed, finally, to the junkyard of history. But this was a terrible misjudgment.
When the world reopened in 2021 after the COVID lockdowns, OPEC imposed a firm limit on supply, while U.S. production was slow to recover. Rhetoric about “killing shale” dominated Democratic Party debates in 2020, too, which scared a lot of participants away from the space, especially after Biden won the election. Why invest in a kill zone? Unsurprisingly, oil prices climbed higher and higher. Demand quickly outstripped supply, and inflation started to roll through markets as fleets of airlines turned on their massive kerosene- powered turbofans, diesel cruise ships for three thousand people cast off their lines, and highways steadily reloaded with gasoline-powered cars, buses, and trucks. And this was occurring not just in America but all over the world.
Tahmazian had been around energy investments all his life, and he was born to trade the energy booms and busts. As we spoke, he leaned in intently: “Larry, think of India. Energy use has doubled there since 2000, and it’s going to grow at three times the global average because they’re urbanizing so fast. That’s going to mean a colossal surge in air-conditioning demand from 2021 to 2031. So we are in a climate crisis, and 1.4 billion people make up the fastest-growing swath of energy demand on planet Earth. That’s three to four times faster than the U.S., UK, Germany, and the rest of the developed world. Of the roughly 320 million households in India, fewer than 22 million have air-conditioning units right now.”
As I traveled back home to New York, I couldn’t stop thinking about the supply of energy in the foreseeable future or, rather, the lack of it. With the global population on an upward trajectory, planet Earth will have an unstoppable demand for energy in the coming years. Meanwhile, supply growth is under arrest. Western politicians are driving hard for alternative energies and run the other way if someone suggests a continuation of drilling, fracking, and mining. This has left a gaping chasm between the amount of energy and critical resources needed to continue raising our global standard of living and the amount on tap—a chasm that will only widen in the coming decades.
By my estimate, $2.4 trillion was cut from the fossil fuels and metals capex between 2014 and 2020. Over the same period, the global population grew by 800 million. Today, we might need $3 trillion in additional capital expenditure just to play catch-up. In other words, there have not been nearly enough good old-fashioned investments in coal, oil, gas, uranium, and metals exploration and production, especially in North America.
But aren’t we well on our way towards knocking out oil with wind farms, solar panels, and hydroelectric power? I largely support the push to adopt green energy, but we’re about twenty years too early. Knocking out oil with green energy right now is a mathematical impossibility, especially since some of the most populated countries in the world (such as India, China, and Russia) have no intention of being bound by Western emission standards. If governments really wanted to replace oil as a source of energy on planet Earth, it would currently take a wind farm a little bigger than France, 134 million acres of land. A solar field to replace oil would need to be the size of Spain, at 120 million acres, not to mention that it would need to experience at least 70 percent sunshine for eight hours a day, every day, every year. Now think about the amount of plastic that would be used, the fiberglass, the steel shafts and turbines, the endless maintenance, the millions of batteries and cabling. It simply cannot be done without bankrupting the planet. Maybe one day, over the course of many decades, but not today. Right now the top priority should be keeping the lights on, and keeping the gargantuan global economy rumbling forward in a responsible, low-inflationary fashion.
But an increase in oil supply doesn’t just happen with a snap of the fingers. First, there are multiyear regulatory loopholes to jump through. Then governments need to incentivize the companies to do it, instead of slapping windfall taxes on them. Next, the exploration phase has to be carried out, finding the most oil-rich patches of land to drill. That’s an expensive game. Phase four is moving the equipment, a multimillion-dollar problem. Then comes the hiring of qualified people, and then the drilling, infrastructure, transportation, and logistics. It will take about seven to ten years to flood the market once again with oil and gas after the ESG drive eventually fails. And it will.
With the global population growing, energy demand surging, and supply growth under arrest, I believe higher energy and metals prices will be sustained for the next decade. From the COVID lows to the end of 2022, as inflation raged higher, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) was up 325 percent, the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) was up 318 percent, the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) was up 260 percent, and the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) was up 260 percent. The oil stocks are still in the early innings, and I predict that in the next few years billions of dollars will flow into these companies.
Juicing Inflation
Energy prices are the root cause of inflation, when you get right down to it. Think of every drop of gasoline and energy used in something simple like our Calgary cup of coffee. Add high oil prices to that, and suddenly that $4 cup of coffee at Starbucks costs $6.
But there’s a second layer to the relationship between energy and inflation. Not only will higher energy costs drive other costs up along with it, but it will make inflation harder to fight. If inflation normalizes in this cycle at 3 to 4 percent instead of 1 to 2 percent as in previous decades, trillions of dollars are misallocated across the investment asset ecosystem, as most portfolios are still massively overweight growth stocks.
Usually, during a time of recession, the prices of energy and oil drop dramatically due to lower demand, which acts as a major deflationary force. But going forward, the price of energy will likely stay relatively high even during recessions. Through chronic underinvestment in the oil and gas industries, the United States and Canada handed over valuable market share to the Saudis, the Russians, and OPEC, giving them way more control over the global price of oil. In a multipolar world, these not-so-friendly players can now coordinate supply cuts during recessions to keep the price high.
If the U.S. had eight thousand drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs), we could just ramp up production and steal market share back from them. But we don’t. DUCs are at a ten-year low, and this dynamic sets us up for a longer-term battle with higher and stickier inflation. We saw this during the minor energy crisis in 2022, and it is going to be the norm in the years ahead.
With the endless issues hanging over the global energy markets, you might be asking how an investor can capitalize on this knowledge. And my advice is simple: Get long oil. The energy ETFs XLE and XOP are great places to start, along with Chevron, Shell, and ExxonMobil. In particular, Exxon is interesting because of its massive new reserves in Guyana, right on the northeastern tip of South America. The company has an operating office in Guyana’s capital, Georgetown, with numerous ongoing exploration and development operations offshore. At its Stabroek oil field, in operation since May 2015, it has made significant discoveries, and the company expects production capacity to reach 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027, up from 375,000 barrels in 2022. This implies that in four years Guyana will represent approximately 25 percent of Exxon’s worldwide production.
This chart also highlights several smaller oil and gas producers with an attractive valuation and the potential to be acquired by one of the oil majors.
One way to value a company in the energy sector is to compare its enterprise value (the sum of its debt and its market capitalization) with the value of the oil and gas reserves it has in the ground. This comparison measures what the value of the company is per “barrel of oil equivalent,” which is the oil and the natural gas converted into barrels of oil. The lower a company’s enterprise value is compared with the reserves it has in the ground, the cheaper the company’s valuation is. PDC Energy, for example, is very cheap. Chevron thought so, too: It made an offer for the company in May 2023. (The chart shows PDC’s valuation before Chevron’s offer.)
In 2022, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink penned a letter outlining his vision of a decarbonized future, calling those working to help knock out oil with green energy “phoenixes,” the immortal birds from Greek mythology that rise from the ashes of their predecessors, and suggesting that those who resist the net-zero transitions are “dodos,” a kind of flightless bird that went extinct in the seventeenth century.
The dodos of the future will be those who cling to their ailing growth stocks. The phoenixes will be invested in hard assets and the still-unloved energy stocks. Borrowing costs will be high, the $2 trillion capex hole will take years to plug, and low prices for fossil fuels—oil, gas, and coal—will soon be a distant memory.
… plans to fire 70,000 government workers in the coming months, in what Bloomberg called “one of the clearest signs yet of how the libertarian’s chainsaw-style approach intends to slash the swollen state.”
Beyond the job cuts, Milei also boasted at an event on Tuesday that he has frozen public works, cut off some funding to provincial governments and terminated more than 200,000 social welfare plans, which he labeled as corrupt, all as part of his strategy to reach a fiscal balance at any cost this year.
“There’s a lot of blender,” Milei said in an hour long speech at the IEFA Latam Forum in Buenos Aires, referring to the erosion of wages and pensions by 276% annual inflation. “There’s a lot more chainsaw.”
Other key points from Milei’s speech Tuesday:
Milei said peso futures contracts are aligned with the central bank’s 2% monthly crawling peg scheme, labeling calls to sharply devalue the currency again “ridiculous”
Argentina central bank on the path to achieving net neutral reserves after starting with debt liabilities that surpassed cash on hand by $11.5 billion in December
Milei says he’ll double down on his attempts to reform the Argentine economy after 2025 congressional elections, with more than 3,000 reforms in the pipeline
He described the Senate rejecting his emergency decree as “marvelous” because “it left all the dirty fingers” of exposed of politicians he calls “delinquents”
Milei expects V-shaped economic recovery
Full speech is below:
It’s not just the US that has a government worker problem with its 23.2 million state parasites…
… Argentina’s state (and deep state) is also rather extensive. And while Milei’s termination plans affest just a small fraction of Argentina’s 3.5 million public sector workers, the job cuts are bound to face tremendous pushback from the country’s powerful labor unions and could jeopardize his high approval ratings. One union representing some government workers went on strike Tuesday, while a government report detailed that private sector workers suffered the worst one-month wage loss in at least three decades once he took office in December.
The leader of the state workers union ATE quickly shot back on X, announcing a national strike without providing further details.
Milei cited polls showing Argentines are more optimistic about the economy’s future, while a recent indicator of the public confidence in the government rose despite his austerity measures.
“People have hope, they’re seeing the light at the end of the tunnel,” Milei concluded.
Well… maybe, but maybe not, because it doesn’t take much by those used to state handouts to organize and collapse the system. And sure enough, a quick look at the country’s real GDP (as measured by the EMAE monthly activity indicator), shows a brutal 4.3% year over year contraction in January, as well as a sequential decline in real GDP of 1.2%, with Goldman noting that “activity softened significantly at the end of 2023 and the weakness extended to the beginning of the year.”
While we appreciate the novelty and excitement sparked by Milei, we wonder: just how much real pain can the people sustain before they demand that he, too, be replaced with someone who promises to ease their pain?
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-Va.) took action on 67 bills on Tuesday, including vetoing 30 that he said would “punish” law-abiding citizens and impinge on their 2nd Amendment rights.
“I swore an oath to defend the Constitution of the United States of America and the Constitution of Virginia, and that absolutely includes protecting the right of law-abiding Virginians to keep and bear arms,” Mr. Youngkin said in a statement.
The Republican governor announced that, in addition to vetoing 30 pieces of gun-related legislation, he had suggested amendments to six and signed 31.
“I am pleased to sign four public safety bills which are commonsense reforms with significant bipartisan support from the General Assembly, and offer recommendations to several bills which, if adopted, will make it harder for criminals to use guns in the commission of a violent act,” he added.
Among the vetoes the governor signed were measures that would criminalize possession of a firearm in a building owned or operated by a public institution of higher education.
One particular bill appeared to target a single individual, the governor noted. House Bill 585 would criminalize home-based firearm dealers who maintain their place of business at their residence within one and a half miles of an elementary or middle school.
“By all appearances, this legislation targets one individual in Prince William County, to whom the Prince William Board of County Supervisors granted a home-based firearms license,” Mr. Youngkin wrote in his veto memo.
A five-day waiting period for gun purchases, championed by Democrat state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam of Loudoun County, was also vetoed.
Another vetoed bill would have banned the import, sale, manufacture, purchase, or transfer of certain firearms and ammunition-feeding devices made on or after July 1.
Among the vetoed bills were ones that sought to prevent the open carrying of some semi-automatic rifles and shotguns in specific public areas. Another bill proposed the creation of safe storage requirements for firearms in homes where minors or people not legally allowed to possess guns reside. Additionally, there was a bill that sought to create a civil penalty for individuals who leave a handgun visible in an unattended vehicle.
Among the bills the governor signed into law were two pairs of identical bipartisan gun-related public safety measures, which garnered broad bipartisan support.
These measures aim to prevent parents from willfully allowing children who pose credible threats of violence to access firearms. Additionally, they prohibit the manufacture, transfer, or possession of an auto sear, colloquially known as a “Glock switch,” that converts firearms into automatic weapons.
One bill the governor signed introduces the possibility of charging parents with a felony under the state’s child abuse and neglect law if they permit a child access to a firearm after being notified of the child’s potential for violence.
Furthermore, Mr. Youngkin announced proposals for amendments to six gun bills, setting the stage for legislative debate when the General Assembly convenes for a one-day session on April 17 in Richmond.
The governor’s proposed amendments to six bills include provisions to prevent firearm transfers to mental health patients, align with federal regulations on serial numbers, set standards for plastic firearms, and mandate parental notification on safe firearm storage.
The vetoes by Mr. Youngkin drew criticism from Democrats, who lack the numbers to overturn them, needing a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
Opponents of the vetoed bills questioned their constitutionality, while proponents argued for tighter restrictions on firearms to enhance public safety.
Mr. Youngkin’s stance on firearms mirrors his campaign rhetoric from 2021, though notably, he did not receive the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.
During his first two years in office, Mr. Youngkin largely avoided gun-related issues due to the divided control of the Legislature. However, with Democrats now in full control after recent elections, dozens of gun-related bills were sent to his desk, prompting these recent actions.
