Month: March 2024

After two solid, record-sized coupon auctions, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s scheduled issuance when it sold $43 billion in 7Y notes (which unlike the 2s and 5s previously, was not a record-large auction and has a ways to go to catch up to the $61BN 7Y auctions during the depths of the post-covid crisis).

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.185%, which was notably below last month’s4.327% and also stopped through the 4.193% When Issued by 0.8bps, the second consecutive stopping auction following three “tails.”

The bid to cover of 2.614 was above last month’s 2.577 and was the highest since October, naturally well above the six-auction average of 2.54.

The internals were also impressive, with Indirects awarded 69.7% which was also the highest since last October. And with Directs taking down 17.4%, up from 14.8% last month, Dealers were left holding on to 12.9%, the lowest since – you guessed it – October 23.

Overall, this was an impressive, “A+” rated auction, as the market reaction agreed by sending Treasury yields to session lows…

… and where every aspect of the sale came “above and beyond” and did not even hint at a possibility of demand drop at a time when US debt is growing by $1 trillion every 100 days. Then again, it’s only a matter of time before that does happen so for all those who bought paper today, enjoy it while you can.

Among the growing list of countries embracing nuclear are now both Thailand and the Philippines, both of whom are “charging ahead” with plans to start nuclear reactors, according to a new report from Nikkei. 

In September, Thailand plans to reveal a national energy strategy extending to 2037, featuring the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) with a combined capacity of 70 megawatts. Despite previous nuclear ambitions halted by the Fukushima disaster in 2011, SMRs have renewed Thailand’s interest due to their safety and smaller size. The same has been true in places like the U.S., U.K., and China.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, discussing nuclear power prospects with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, emphasized research into SMR safety and public consultation. Thailand is realizing what the rest of the world is starting to wake up to: that nuclear is the solution to the ‘green’ energy issue. Nikkei notes that as Thailand’s natural gas reserves dwindle and electricity demand surges, the move towards nuclear energy supports its 2050 carbon neutrality goal.

Similarly, the Philippines plans a nuclear facility by the early 2030s, bolstered by a U.S. civil nuclear agreement. This initiative revives ambitions from the era of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., aiming to fulfill a long-standing vision under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Indonesia aims to add 1,000 to 2,000 MW of nuclear capacity by the 2030s, shifting from a coal-heavy energy mix towards a 2060 carbon neutrality target. Despite Southeast Asia’s renewable energy efforts, the region’s high energy costs and absence of operational nuclear plants underscore the challenges ahead. Business leaders like Dhanin Chearavanont advocate for nuclear energy as crucial for economic progress.

Safety concerns persist, highlighted by a 2023 incident involving lost radioactive material in Thailand. Additionally, Myanmar’s increasing nuclear collaboration with Russia amidst international isolation raises fears of military misuse of nuclear technology.

Kei Koga, associate professor at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, commented to Nikkei: “If Southeast Asia becomes involved in the competition between global powers to export nuclear technology, it could lead to fragmentation in the region.”

Nuclear, the oft-bastardized common sense solution to most of the world’s ‘green’ energy issues, is finally starting to see an uptick in adoption. Recall, days ago we wrote that uranium prices were set to jump once again after a small correction. 

Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC, a nuclear industry research firm told Bloomberg last week: “We have reached a bottom. The fundamentals are still strong, with increased demand and supply that hasn’t fully responded.”

According to Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Mike Kozak, there’s evidence to suggest that uranium prices have stabilized. Kozak forecasts a resurgence of fundamental buyers in the market, which is expected to propel prices upwards once more, Bloomberg wrote. 

Optimistic investors are focusing on uranium’s future, driven by an increasing supply shortage and higher demand, as nations (finally pull their heads out from their a** and) seek nuclear energy solutions for climate change.

This interest is highlighted amid supply warnings from Canada’s Cameco and Kazakhstan’s Kazatomprom, the leading producers responsible for half of the worldwide uranium supply. Kazatomprom forecasts a significant supply deficit escalating from 21 million pounds in 2030 to 147 million pounds by 2040.

Geopolitical tensions, including a U.S. proposal to ban Russian uranium imports, which are essential for nuclear power and weapons, add complexity to the supply scenario, the report says. However, the potential resurgence of dormant mining operations due to rising uranium prices poses a risk of dampening the market rally, reminiscent of the recent boom-to-bust cycle in battery metals.

“We have a number of geopolitical factors that have a really significant influence on buyer behavior, even though fundamentally nothing has changed. Buyers can use the spot to tell them the sentiment of the day, but must look at the long-term market to see that it is marching steadily up, it hasn’t taken a hiccup at all,” concluded Treva Klingbiel, president of uranium price provider TradeTech.

Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,

Joe Biden was apparently fooled into signing into law a ban on flying gay pride flags at American embassies, with his administration vowing to fight the measure despite his signature approving it.

As reported by Axios, the ban was included as a provision of the $1.2 trillion spending bill that had been passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate, before being signed into law by Biden on Saturday.

Biden’s State Department had first authorized the flying of the flags, including the rainbow flag and the “progress” flag featuring colors that represent so-called “transgender” people, as well as black and brown lines, in 2021.

Apparently unaware of the provision’s inclusion until after it had been signed, a Biden spokesman issued a statement saying that Biden “believes it was inappropriate to abuse the process that was essential to keep the government open by including this policy targeting LGBTQI+ Americans.”

Biden “fought against the inclusion of this policy and we will continue to work with members of Congress to find an opportunity to repeal it,” the spokesman continued.

“We were successful in defeating 50+ other policy riders attacking the LGBTQI+ community that Congressional Republicans attempted to insert into the legislation. President Biden is committed to fighting for LGBTQI+ equality at home and abroad.”

The spending bill, which is over 1,000 pages long, explicitly states that “none of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available by this Act may be obligated or expended to fly or display a flag over a facility of the United States Department of State.”

The only flags that are allowed are the American flag, the Foreign Service flag, the POW/MIA flag, the Hostage and Wrongful Detainee flag, the flag of a State, insular area, or the District of Columbia at domestic locations, the flag of an Indian Tribal government, the official branded flag of a United States agency, or the sovereign flag of other countries.

The Biden administration announced this week that it plans to resume humanitarian aid drops into Gaza amid reports that large-scale famine is looming. However, critics have said that the airdropped crates from large military transport planes are dangerous given the cramped and desperate conditions on the ground below. 

So far the Pentagon has delivered at least 17 airdrops of nearly 500,000 meals, but the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry has said that just on Monday alone 18 people died trying to desperately access the aid, much of which landed in the sea.

Airdropping supplies just off the coast is an apparent safety precaution, after earlier this month Palestinian civilians died after apparently being impacted by falling crates amid parachute failure.

But 12 of the deceased drowned on Monday while trying to access the aid which landed in the Mediterranean. “The aid airdrops pose a real threat to the lives of hungry Palestinians,” Gaza’s government media office warned. Others reportedly perished during stampedes as the aid arrived on land.

The statement further described that some of the recent aid has fallen into active war zones, which presents the risk of hungry civilians getting caught in the crossfire trying to reach it. “This all put the lives of people in real danger,” the office added.

Initially only Jordan was engaged in airdrops, later joined by the US military. Since then and into this week the countries of Germany, Britain, Egypt, Singapore, and UAE have joined and cooperated on airdrops. 

Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh has noted there have been recent instances of parachute malfunctions when delivering the aid. “As always, safety is a top priority when planning these airdrops,” Singh said. “Of note, during [Monday’s] humanitarian airdrop, which included approximately 80 bundles, three bundles were reported to have had parachute malfunctions and landed in the water.”

A number of human rights and aid groups have criticized air drops as a mere show or PR stunt, saying they aren’t worth the risk given the miniscule amount of aid through such means compared to what’s needed for the Strip’s more than two million people.

The Pentagon is currently seeking to erect a large aid delivery pier off Gaza’s coast, which is expected to take at least a month to complete once started. The US ships participating in the mission departed the US on March 15 and are still traversing the Atlantic Ocean:

The Army and Navy ships that have left the U.S. for a massive humanitarian aid project in Gaza are still making their way across the Atlantic, with two still at ports in Florida and Virginia. It will likely take until mid-April for the vessels to reach Gaza and begin building a temporary causeway to facilitate the entry of life-saving aid into the strip.

Looking at real-time satellite imagery tracking military vessels, it looks like the USAV Gen. Frank Besson Jr., an Army support vessel that left Fort Eustis, Virginia, on March 10, has been moored and presumably refueling at a port in the Azores, Portugal, since Friday. It is at the half-way point between the U.S. and its final destination of Cyprus (nearly 5,000 nautical miles total). At an average speed of 10 knots, its journey will take nearly two more weeks, depending on weather conditions, once it gets going again.

The rest of the vessels are behind and, as of Tuesday, halfway across the Atlantic, though they can travel at slightly higher speeds than the Besson. They include the Army support vessels Loux, Matamoros, Monterrey and Wilson Wharf, which are all traveling together and were between Bermuda and the Azores Tuesday morning.

Below: surreal footage of starving Palestinians attempting to reach the dropped aid…

Yesterday, 13 people drowned whilst trying to reach aid that fell into the Gaza Sea 💔💔

These airdrops are inhumane.#GazaGenocide #GazaHolocaust #IsraeliApartheid #IsraeliWarCrimes #IsraeliNewNazism pic.twitter.com/jJPc6OydPE

— زينة🔻 (@xeeebra) March 26, 2024

The Pentagon’s ongoing airdrop mission is meant to fill the gap at least until the US Navy’s maritime delivery missions can begin. Rights groups have also criticized Israel for effectively imposing a full military blockade on Gaza, and have charged that Israel’s military is actively weaponizing food access.

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

The New York Post is speculating that the infamous ‘knockout game’ could have made a return after numerous women reported being punched in the head by “strangers” in New York City.

Over the course of the last two weeks, multiple women have released viral TikTok videos explaining how they were taken by surprise and assaulted on the street.

“You guys, I was literally just walking, and a man came up and punched me in the face,” Halley Kate, an influencer who has 1.1 million followers on TikTok told her fans.

“Oh my God, it was so bad, I can’t even talk,” she added.

Mikayla Toninato told a similar story of how she “just got punched in the face, walking home.”

“I was literally like leaving class, I turned the corner and I was looking down and I was looking at my phone, and like texting, and then, out of nowhere, this man just came up and hit me in the face,” she said.

Another woman named Oliva Brand said, “I literally got punched in the head on the sidewalk. He goes, ‘Sorry,’ and then punches me — in the head.”

The NY Post reports that that attacks “appear similar to the “knockout game,” where young people encourage each other to randomly sucker-punch strangers.”

What they didn’t report is that a large portion of ‘the knockout game’ attacks involved black people punching white people.

Just like the victims in their initial TikTok videos failed to say what the culprit looked like, the New York Post article contains no description of the actual perpetrators, describing them only as “strangers”.

As we document in the video above, according to at least two of the victims who later responded to innumerable comments asking for a description, the culprit was a black man.

None of them pointed that out to begin with probably because they didn’t want to be seen as racist, which apparently is worse than punching random white girls in the head.

*  *  *

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In a trend that’s growing quickly among red states, Governor Brad Little recently announced that Idaho is officially banning DEI requirements and “statements” used by public educational institutions as a metric for hiring employees or as an entry model for student candidates applying to colleges and universities.  

Senate Bill 1274, now signed into law, will “prohibit the requirement of statements regarding diversity as a condition of employment in postsecondary education” in the state of Idaho. Statements will also be banned as a requirement of “an admissions process” to any public college. 

Such DEI related processes have long been used by progressives infiltrating various institutions as a means to filter incoming candidates for employment and for college admissions.  The goal?  To remove conservative applicants from the fold and pack these institutions with even more woke adherents.

Many people assume that universities are far-left because only far-leftists are interested in teaching jobs or attentding college.  This is not the case.  DEI vetting specifically rewards people that share the progressive ideology, while also giving far more opportunities to women and minorities regardless of their qualifications.  

Basing government employment and college applications on merit rather than skin color or sexual orientation might make perfect sense to the majority of Americans, but Governor of California Gavin Newsom is not happy about it.  He (or his hired assistants) took to social media to snipe at Idaho’s announcement, apparently trying to assert that the “whiteness” of the political leaders in Idaho was the motivator for the passage of the law.

Really nailed it with the photo, here. https://t.co/gRAlLgw0Hf

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) March 27, 2024

How does one respond to this passive aggressive judgement?  Maybe it’s best to ask: Why is diversity relevant?

Is Newsom suggesting he’s opposed to merit based hiring and college admissions?  If so, does that mean he thinks minorities are not able to succeed based on their qualifications or intelligence alone and require a bureaucratic crutch like DEI in order to get anywhere in life? 

He won’t say this, at least not out loud.  Leftists are more likely to argue from an affirmative action-like position.  They will insinuate that “racists” are conspiring to keep minorities out of state jobs and colleges and that DEI is designed to force whites to allow minorities in.  In reality, equity requirements are created to motivate a different kind of prejudice: Ideological prejudice.  For the woke, diversity of skin color is fine as long as there’s no diversity of thought.

The effects are obvious.  Public universities in the US have become far-left indoctrination centers and a vital part of this agenda includes pervasive peer pressure.  If independently minded students or professors are surrounded daily by a mob that’s hostile to them, they’re more likely to keep quiet or adapt in order to survive.  Diversity requirements and statements are a powerful tool for progressives to continue controlling higher education systems.  They are also a strategy for pushing state politics further and further left over time by churning out an army of brainwashed kids with college degrees ready to enter the professional world.

It should be noted that Gavin Newsom’s militant pursuit of DEI is one of the reasons why conservative residents of California are leaving in droves to live in states like Idaho.  In fact, census data shows that around 31% of Idaho’s population growth from 2017 to 2023 were all transplants from California. 

Studies also show that almost all of these relocating families are conservative, debunking a longtime narrative that “liberals” from California are moving to red states to “take over.”  Voting records show this is false at least in terms of the past several years, with red states like Idaho growing even more red after the covid lockdowns.  It’s possible that this claim was conjured in order to frighten red state citizens into hostility against newcomers.    

The population shift of the past decade in the US has run along distinctly political lines, with conservatives and independents seeking to escape the bureaucracy, high taxes and authoritarian legislation of blue states.  Above all of this, however, is the proliferation of woke cultism and the invasion of DEI into every facet of life wherever progressives are the majority.  Leftists demand that people submit to this new religion or they risk losing access to basic opportunities such as employment and higher education.  This is what states like California want to normalize, and this is what states like Idaho are fighting against.

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Disney’s legal battles against its new governing body, the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD), appear to be coming to an end.

On March 27, the CFTOD Board of Supervisors voted in favor of a settlement offered by the company, which agreed to drop two active lawsuits against CFTOD after it replaced the former Disney-appointed Reedy Creek Improvement District Board more than a year ago.

Disney also agreed to concede that the eleventh-hour development agreement they made with the Reedy Creek Improvement District in a final attempt to retain its autonomy was null, void, and unenforceable.

In exchange, among other concessions, CFTOD would drop its counterclaims against Disney, the district would recognize Disney’s ownership of permits issued by the South Florida Water Management District, the Army Corps of Engineers, and the Florida Game and Fresh Water Commission, and would not impede on them, and negotiate a development agreement.

“I’m very much pleased by this development,” said Vice Chair Charbel Barakat. “You know, we, the Central Florida tourism oversight district was created to bring public accountability and transparency to one of Florida’s most important destinations. We’re proud of the landmark work the district has done and look forward to what lies ahead. I think with this settlement, which is complete and significant.

“We are eager to work with Disney. I’m certainly eager to work with Disney and all other businesses to make the country’s tourism destination famous for a second reason, which is good government. I’d like to thank publicly thank the district’s general counsel for their Herculean efforts on this front as well as our as well as our outside counsel.”

The board voted unanimously.

“We are glad that Disney has dropped its lawsuits against the new Central Florida Tourism Oversight District and conceded that their last-minute development agreements are null, void, and unenforceable,” Gov. Ron DeSantis’s Communications Director Bryan Griffin said.

“No corporation should be its own government. Moving forward, we stand ready to work with Disney and the District to help promote economic growth, family-friendly tourism, and accountable government in Central Florida.”

This fight began in February 2023 when Mr. DeSantis signed HB 9B into law, stripping the Mouse House of its self-appointed board of the then-Reedy Creek Improvement District with the governor-appointed board of the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District.

But the origins of the legislation trace back further to when Disney spoke out against the Parental Rights in Education legislation, promising to do what it could to get the bill overturned.

Disney filed several lawsuits with the passing of HB 9B. One of which was filed in the Florida Northern District Court on April 26, 2023, against Mr. DeSantis in his official position as Florida’s governor, the Secretary of Commerce (previously Meredith Ivy, and now Alex Kelly), and every CFTOD board member, essentially claiming the transformation of Reedy Creek was “in retaliation for its protected speech” against Parental Rights in Education Law.

But U.S. District Court Judge Allen Winsor dismissed the case on Jan. 31, concluding that Disney’s suit lacked standing and sufficient merit, and that case was expected to be appealed in the 11th Circuit Court.

Since its founding in 1967, the area of land roughly the size of San Francisco, which includes the Walt Disney World Resort, was set up to be governed by board members who were determined by the district’s landowners.

In the countersuit filed by CFTOD, which was also considered for settlement, Disney admitted that land was deeded to board members for the duration of their time of service. Disney was accused of owning nearly all of the land within the district, and the argument was made that the situation gave the corporation its own government.

Disney also attempted to retain its autonomy over its land in spite of the new government by having the now-defunct Reedy Creek board transfer most of its authority on Feb. 8, 2023, days before the new board took power, including a massive pre-approval of a 30-year control over all land development rights without having to go through the CFTOD board.

The state of Florida disputed the legitimacy of that agreement, and on March 27, Disney finally conceded that the agreement was now “null and void… hav[ing] no legal effect or enforceability.”

The governor’s office described the state’s action under Mr. DeSantis as having brought accountability, and leveled the playing field for businesses in central Florida, as well as affirmed the position that no corporation, like Disney, should be its own government.

The Kremlin this week has publicized conditions under which it would enter negotiations with the United States toward restoring relations. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said Russia remains “open” to such dialogue but only on the basis of comprehensively addressing all issues of concern. Peskov said that Moscow has the “political will” for talks with Washington, but is “in favor of a comprehensive discussion of all issues.”

President Putin “has repeatedly said that we are open to a dialogue, that we believe it is necessary to discuss all issues comprehensively. You cannot take some issues out of the general context that now dominates our bilateral relations,” Peskov elaborated, according to Russian media.

Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov has previously described that “only crumbs” remain of US-Russian relations, and this includes mainly the deconfliction hotline in Syria, space exploration, and some contact groups that work on nuclear proliferation. Still, several end of Cold War era weapons treaties have collapsed, as Washington has ratcheted anti-Russian sanctions related to the Ukraine war. 

The fresh assessment appeared to be a response to some of the goodwill shown by the West in the wake of last Friday’s Crocus City Hall terrorist attack which left 140 dead.

“The United States strongly condemns yesterday’s deadly terrorist attack in Moscow,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said in a Saturday statement. “We condemn terrorism in all its forms and stand in solidarity with the people of Russia in grieving the loss of life from this horrific event.”

This tragic event opened the window to Moscow potentially restoring formal counter-terrorism cooperation with the West: 

Following a terrorist attack in Moscow Oblast, the EU asserted that it might allow joint counterterrorism cooperation with the Russian Federation under certain conditions, but it is difficult to imagine a basis for cooperation with a country engaged in full-fledged aggression at the moment.

Peter Stano, EU’s Lead Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, responded to a question at a briefing in Brussels about the possibility of EU-Russia cooperation in the fight against terrorism following the shooting in the Russian suburbs that killed 137 people. The terrorist group Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.

Likely any dialogue or future cooperation with Washington would be limited to that front, in the wake of the Moscow attack.

Given President Biden called Putin a “butcher” again this week, ties are not expected to thaw anytime soon…

US President Biden again called Putin a “butcher” and again called for urgent aid to Ukraine

“There are so many important things we could do, including finally taking care of helping Ukraine from this butcher Putin.”- Biden stated. pic.twitter.com/tmtvOAQWji

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 27, 2024

Amb. Antonov said that since the Crocus Hall attack the Kremlin has only had “transitory” contacts with the US administration, but that next week there will be opportunity to discuss “bilateral relations, about how we can live on, and if there is any chance at all for Russian-American relations not to be completely destroyed.”

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Lemonade or Kool-Aid?

“How Lemony Snickets!” So one might think looking at financial press headlines over the past few days. Yet there is one other common theme, which I will address at the end of this list.

• The collapsed Francis Scott Key Baltimore bridge, besides the loss of life, underlines how damaging the absence of key infrastructure is: US and global trade will get snarled for some time as 52m tons of cargo annually, 1.3m tons of farm and construction equipment, 2.5m tons of coal, large quantities of lumber, gypsum, nearly a million cars –and everyone who lives in the Baltimore area– face disruption. This incident looks like a power failure on the Maersk-chartered, Singapore-owned, Indian-crewed ship, on top of generational under-investment in infrastructure and the dull institutions that allow economies to work vs. the firms/consultancies which milk the profits from it. However, national security experts had already warned in future wars the US is involved in, and/or terrorist attacks, the risk is of similar sabotage episodes, especially given the prevalence of foreign crews and ships entering the US daily. The US is completely unprepared for this threat, apart from recent action on removing Chinese cranes in US ports. And Europe is arguably just as vulnerable.

• The US and Japan just signed the biggest change to their security treaty for 60 years in the face of a threat from China and North Korea: the US may move operational control of forces in Japan from the current base in Hawaii. Such treaty changes are not undertaken lightly, or for no reason. As I’ve said recently, strategists need to look at logistics for signals, not economists.

• The Congressional Budget Office says the US risks a Lizz Truss-style bond collapse if it doesn’t change its “unprecedented” fiscal trajectory. Yet this misses one key thing: the Bank of England, in some eyes, deliberately precipitated the Gilts market EM-style sell-off, either because of a sudden passing phase of economic orthodoxy or, possibly, because the government was talking about reforming the Bank of England. It’s unlikely the Fed is going to walk away from the US Treasury: the direction of travel, particularly after the next change of FOMC Chair, could well be the opposite, and in fact may have to – though that has its own market implications.

• Newsweek says ‘Gen Z Is Toxic for Companies, Employers Believe’, and notes 68% of US small business owners said Gen Zers were their “least reliable” employees; 71% said they were most likely to have mental health issues; one employer spoke of “absolute delusion, complete lack of common sense, and zero critical reasoning or basic analytical skills.”; less than 4% said Gen Z most aligns with their workplace culture; 62% said they were most likely to create division and toxicity in the workplace; and another noted the tendency for “expecting promotions for simply showing up every day.” This is the generation that is taking over positions in all Western corporations and institutions – if they aren’t marching in the streets instead.

• ‘Secret RCMP report warns Canadians may revolt once they realize how broke they are’. A heavily redacted version warns Canada “may descend into civil unrest once citizens realize the hopelessness of their economic situation”, and that the next recession “will accelerate the decline in living standards the younger generations have already witnessed,” as most Canadians under 35 “are unlikely ever to be able to buy a place to live.” Now try the rest of the West and see what it looks like. That said, elsewhere the report also warns of Canada facing “increasing pressure to cede Arctic territory.” Presumably not to Gen Z from other countries: so to whom?

• ‘Chinese ex-trade negotiator slams US for ‘dismantling the system’ of global trade.’ The Boao Forum heard Chinese firms are relocating the Mexico to sell to US consumers, but if the US shuts that option off too –as both Biden and Trump are proposing on EVs– it would mean higher inflation in the US. More importantly, we heard, “It is the globalised economic and trade systems that are at stake…now the US is dismantling the system.”

• There are more political rumbles coming from the Balkans that suggest Europe might have even more on its overloaded geopolitical plate to deal with soon. The Serbian Prime Minister just made cryptic warnings about threats to national security via social media, while Kosovo warns of a Serbian invasion.

Can you spot the theme running through all of this?

How about a Western economy rotted away to a potential tipping point by a generation of neoliberal economic theory put into practice, and now experiencing simultaneous: failing ideology; failing infrastructure; failing institutions; failing national security; failing fiscal policy; failing demographics; a failing workforce (say small business-owners); failing society (say the Mounties); and failing global architecture? None of that suggests that we are heading back to a world of ultra-low rates and ultra-low inflation.

Or maybe it’s ‘a series of unfortunate events’, inflation is transitory, and rate cuts solve all.

It’s up to you to decide, as the market drifts along today waiting for what it calls ‘a signal’, while opting to ignore all the blaring alarms going off outside of Bloomberg screens. But when life gives you Lemony Snickets, I suggest you make lemonade, by preparing and trading appropriately, rather than drinking the Kool-Aid.

Oil prices are lower overnight following API’s report of a large crude inventory build.

API

• Crude +9.34mm (-1.2mm exp) – biggest build in six weeks

• Cushing +2.39mm

• Gasoline -4.437mm (-1.7mm exp) – 8th straight weekly draw

• Distillates +531k (+100k exp)

DOE

• Crude +3.17mm (-1.2mm exp)

• Cushing +2.1mm – biggest build since Jan 2023

• Gasoline +1.3mm (-1.7mm exp)

• Distillates -1.185mm (+100k exp)

Unlike API’s report, the official data showed gasoline stocks building last week (first build in 8 weeks) and stocks at the crucial Cushing hub surged by the most since Jan 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden administration added to the SPR once again (+744k barrels)…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production was unchanged near record highs last week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading just above $81 ahead of the official data, and rallied back up to pre-API levels…

Geopolitical uncertainty amid Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and extended supply cutbacks by OPEC+ have buoyed prices, although a challenging economic outlook in China and robust non-OPEC supply growth remain headwinds.

“Given an approaching end of month, end of quarter and the long Easter weekend, it is understandable that a little froth comes off the markets,” said John Evans, an analyst at brokerage PVM.

“Yesterday’s likely trimming of length and the resultant negative day is exacerbated by a surprising build in crude stock data produced by the API.”

And finally, as gasoline stocks decline, wholesale gasoline prices imply pump prices are going much higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Not a good sign for Powell or Biden…