Month: March 2024

Authored by Michael Wilkerson via The Epoch Times,

Named after American economist Hyman Minsky, the idea behind a Minsky moment is that a financial markets crisis (especially in credit markets) is caused by a sudden and systemic collapse in asset prices, usually after a sustained period of speculative investment, excessive borrowing, and widespread financial risk taking.

In other words, it’s the moment when the music stops playing, investors stop buying, and the Ponzi game ends abruptly. It’s a hard crash.

America may be on the brink of its Minsky moment.

This process, which moves from slowly, slowly, to suddenly and now, goes back decades.

The confrontation with reality that was required to put America’s economic house back in order after the global financial crisis of 2008–09 was deferred to a later date by politicians, central bankers, and government officials alike, presumably when they would no longer be around.

Instead of taking the painful but necessary steps of liquidation—i.e., allowing more over-levered and risk-heavy banks and financial firms to fail, and for the economy to take the short-term pain, then move on—the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve kicked the can down the road by massive money-supply expansion and unproductive government spending.

The same playbook from the financial crisis (i.e., money printing and fiscal excess) was used again in 2020 in response to the pandemic. As the monetary authorities had but one instrument in their toolbox—the blunt-force cudgel of money-supply growth—it was the go-to solution.

As the saying goes, when the only tool available is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. In both instances—the financial crisis and COVID periods), the U.S. Congress went on a massive spending spree, not realizing (or, as political animals with short time horizons, not caring) that excess and repeated deficit spending, and the debt creation needed to fund it, would eventually spiral out of control and doom future generations.

While a more serious collapse of the bubble—a monetary Great Reset—was avoided in 2008–09, the underlying conditions were not resolved.

The monetary and fiscal actions taken at the time only postponed the crisis and, worse, further inflated a massive bubble that is destined to eventually burst.

We are still living in this bubble, evidenced by all-time highs in equity and crypto markets, speculation in numerous asset classes from real estate to collectibles to memecoins, and “get what you can while you can” borrowing by governments, households, and corporates alike.

Given the increasing magnitude (in both nominal and real terms) of the debt problem, a financial crisis in 2024 or 2025 will have much worse consequences than anything that would have happened at the time of the financial crisis 15 years ago.

On the eve of the 2008 crisis, U.S. federal debt to GDP was around 64 percent, the same level as in 1995. This allowed some flexibility. As of the most recent quarter, the ratio of debt to GDP is now nearly double that, at 122 percent.

On this measure, the United States is now among the top 10 most indebted countries in the world, a peer group that includes economically hobbled nations such as Venezuela, Greece, Italy, and sclerotic Japan.

The level of U.S. national debt, quickly approaching $35 trillion in coming months, now requires more than $1.1 trillion in interest payments annually just to service it. And this number doesn’t include state and municipal debt or the unfunded liabilities and entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security that now comprise the substantial majority of the federal budget, limiting anyone’s ability to shrink the deficit through a reduction in discretionary spending.

The deficit for 2024 is tracking at $1.7 trillion, adding to the existing cumulative U.S. deficit of $22 trillion since 2001. The deficit matters in part because high deficits relative to GDP are strongly correlated with persistent inflation.

Since 2020, the United States has run the highest levels of deficits (as a percent of GDP) since World War II. Those deficits produced high inflation, but they also reversed and became budget surpluses shortly after the war ended. This was made possible because of the productivity miracle that was mid-twentieth century America.

The United States of 2024 has no equivalent productivity boost waiting in the wings. Artificial intelligence is one bright spot, but other tech (crypto in particular), energy, and mining industries are each being chased off-shore through regulatory interference.

Manufacturing is attempting a comeback, but only represents 11 percent of GDP. Bureaucratic, tax, monetary (the U.S. dollar remains too high to be competitive), and other barriers persist. The continued growth (as a percent of GDP) of financial advisors, personal injury attorneys, and tax accountants needed to navigate the impossible IRS tax code hardly comprise the revolutionary army needed to make the American economy great again.

When the Minsky moment arrives, the U.S. government will have no ability to confront it save for a resumption of quantitative easing and other forms of money printing.

With the bond markets in turmoil, investors will be increasingly reluctant to buy more U.S. debt. Foreign buyers have already begun reducing their exposure, and now account for only 30 percent by value of U.S. Treasurys held, compared with 45 percent in 2013.

If this divestment trend suddenly accelerates, the United States will be forced to monetize its debt through Federal Reserve purchases of U.S. Treasurys. This will be highly inflationary, even as economic conditions are weakening and unemployment is rising.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve have already committed to a “whatever it takes” approach to crisis management. When the Minsky moment arrives, and the bond markets are in meltdown, the “whatever it takes” will primarily be a firehose of liquidity (more money created out of thin air) to the banking system with an alphabet soup of program names.

As a result, the United States will be forced to accept significantly higher levels of inflation. The alternatives are just too severe. The U.S. government, as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, cannot default. There is a practical limit on how high it can take the visible tax rate. Its only alternative is the hidden tax of ever-higher inflation.

To avoid this outcome, U.S. productivity would have to dramatically increase such that the ratio of debt to GDP falls back in line. This seems an impossibility. The higher the ratio of debt to GDP, the greater the anchor-like drag on the national economic ship.

One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – was flat at +2.8% YoY in February (as expected) – the lowest since March 2021.

However, the headline PCE Deflator stalled its disinflationary path, rising to +2.5% YoY (from +2.4%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Durable Goods deflation slowed and non-durable goods inflation picked up in February…

Source: Bloomberg

The so-called SuperCore – Services inflation ex-Shelter – remains stalled around +3.33% YoY (up 0.18% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

But SuperCore MoM tumbled significantly  (as Healthcare cost inflation fell and Other Services prices deflated)…

Source: Bloomberg

Income and Spending both rose in February with spending far outpacing income (+0.8% MoM vs +0.3% MoM respectively)…

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, spending is once again outpacing income growth…

Source: Bloomberg

Government workers’ record wage growth in January was revised lower (because we caught them)…

• Govt wages grew 8.1% in Feb, up from a downward revised 7.9%  in Jan and below the record high of 8.9% in December

• Private wages grew 5.4% in Feb, up from 5.3% in Jan and back to their pre-covid growth rates

As one would expect with that level of spending, the savings rate collapsed to its lowest since Dec 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Here’s why – government handouts rose significantly once again (+$39BN MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, while the markets are exuberant at the survey-based disinflation, we do note that it’s not all sunshine and unicorns. The vast majority of the reduction in inflation has been ‘cyclical’…

Source: Bloomberg

Acyclical Core PCE inflation remains extremely high, although it has fallen from its highs.

Is The (apolitical) Fed really going to cut rates 4 times this year with a background of strong growth (GDP) and still high Acyclical inflation?

With US futures and European markets closed for Good Friday, the only markets trading overnight were in Asia where stocks gained following another record close on Wall Street, with focus turning to key PCE data due later Friday as well as a speech by Fed chair Powell.

Benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and mainland China showed modest increases, after US stocks wrapped up the first quarter on a positive note, including the 5th monthly gain in a row and closing up 18 of the past 22 weeks – something markets haven’t done since 1989.

And while they won’t be able to trade it – except perhaps through crypto which never closes –  investors are bracing for a print of the Federal Reserve’s preferred consumer price reading for fresh clues about its policy outlook.

Several Asian markets, including Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore, are also closed Friday for a public holiday. The gains in the region came after traders sent the S&P 500 to its 22nd record this year on the back of data showing the US economy remained healthy. A $4 trillion surge in US equity values in just three months has startled doomsayers, while leaving a host of strategists scrambling to update their 2024 targets.

“Domestic events are driving the gains in China, Japan and South Korea with investor sentiment underpinned by the overnight gains in the US market,” said Seo Sang-Young, a market strategist at Mirae Asset Securities. End-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing also seems to be at play, Seo added.

Eslewhere, traders remain on alert for intervention in Japan’s currency after officials stepped up warnings this week to stem its slide. The yen’s weakness is not in line with economic fundamentals, Masato Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, said in an interview Friday. He also reaffirmed the commitment to act if needed to prevent excessive swings in the exchange rate.

There is a growing sense of wariness of intervention, said Taishi Fujita, associate in the global markets division for the Americas at MUFG Bank. “Even if you build a position selling the yen during a strong phase, you are likely to drop the position as it approaches 152.” He pointed out that the market may continue to hover in the low 151-yen per dollar range.

Latest data showed that consumer price growth in Tokyo moderated while staying well above the central bank’s inflation target. It may keep authorities on track to consider more rate increases after they hiked earlier this month for the first time since 2007.
On China’s corporate front, one of the nation’s biggest property firms delayed its earnings report while another posted a historic profit decline. Country Garden Holdings Co. announced late Thursday it will miss a deadline for reporting annual results, saying it needs more information. Developer China Vanke Co. said net profit tumbled 46% last year.

According to Bloomberg, swaps traders on Thursday slightly trimmed wagers that the Fed would cut rates as soon as June following Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments on Wednesday that there was no rush to lower interest rates. Two-year Treasury yields climbed five basis points to 4.62% in a shortened session ahead of the holiday, while the dollar extended its quarterly advance. Trading of cash Treasuries in Asia is closed due to the holiday.

With both GDP and consumer spending posting strong advances at the end of last year, consumer sentiment rose markedly toward the end of March, supported partly by the strong stock-market gains. In addition to the release of the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, traders will also closely monitor a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later Friday.

Elsewhere, gold hit a fresh all-time high, extending a weeks-long rally fueled by bets on Fed rate cuts and deepening geopolitical tensions. Oil scored a 16% quarterly gain in the latest sign that export curbs by OPEC and its allies are reining in global supplies.

Bitcoin eased Friday after climbing to $71,555 in the previous session, despite another session of strong inflows into ETFs, as bitcoin futures get slammed constantly, affording new spot buyers cheaper prices.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is speaking at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank’s Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference today. The conversation, moderated by Marketplace’s Kai Ryssdal, will start at 11:30 a.m. ET. It should cover several topics including inflation and interest rates.

Authored by Louis-Vincent Gave via Evergreen Gavekal blog,

So far this year, we have seen US inflation repeatedly beat expectations, US gasoline prices creep higher, gold break out to new all-time highs, feverish speculation in crypto and parts of the equity market, bonds sell off, and the US dollar roll over. Now copper has suddenly broken out of its recent trading range. And against this benign backdrop, US corporate bond spreads remain tight, despite fears of a US commercial real estate bust and its impact on US regional banks.

Outside the US, Japanese trade unions have secured their biggest pay rise in 33 years. Coming on top of a higher-than-expected PPI reading for February, this points to a more hawkish Bank of Japan and a stronger yen, which implies less deflation and less capital exports from Japan. Meanwhile India, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East are booming. And in spite of weak domestic economic data, European stock markets are chugging along nicely.

In short, over the past two months the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts has taken on some serious water. This leaves investors with an important question. What will the Fed do next? Will it try to get ahead of the curve and beat back the expectations of imminent rate cuts that it raised in December? Or will the Fed deliver on the promise of rate cuts, even though the macro backdrop is no longer so supportive of easier policy?

One added complication is the calendar. The Fed will be loath to start a new rate cut cycle in July, smack in between the Republican and Democratic conventions. It will also be loath to start a new cutting cycle in late October, days before the US presidential election. This means that the obvious times for the Fed to start a new rate cut cycle are either in June or in December (unless a Lehman-style or Covid-type crisis forces its hand).

Now, having said all that, one of the first things I was taught as a young cadet at officer school was that “doing nothing” is still “doing something.” In the heat of battle, the temptation is always to freeze and attempt to gather more information before making any decision that could potentially have dire consequences. But the decision to freeze and wait is still a decision—and one that itself can have dramatic implications.

• If the Fed freezes and does nothing—does not cut rates and lets the reverse repo reservoir drain without adding fresh liquidity—we can probably expect a sell-off in long-dated bonds, especially considering the volume of rollovers and new issuance coming down the pipeline. Few equities, least of all the more richly valued, would respond well to higher bond yields. The US dollar would likely rally, and commodities would struggle.

• If the Fed, despite the changed environment, goes ahead with rate cuts, precious metals will continue to rally; in the past few sessions, silver has started to show signs of life and seems to be joining gold in a new bull market. Emerging market debt and equities will rally hard. The US dollar will continue to weaken. And commodities will continue to rally.

So let’s weigh the odds, starting with the reasons for the Fed to go ahead and deliver on rate cuts, despite all the recent strong data.

1) Institutional bias. In meeting after meeting, the Fed has made clear its belief that fighting inflation is much easier than fighting deflation. This belief will tend to push the Fed to err on the side of reflation.

2) Credibility fears. After being caught out and changing course in 2019 and again in 2022, Jay Powell probably wants to avoid another flip-flop.

3) Politics. If Powell fails to deliver rate cuts, triggering a bond and equity market crash just before the presidential election, he will never be invited to a dinner party in Washington D.C. again.

4) Treasury capture. In the last couple of months, both Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden have gone on record to say that the Fed needs to cut rates. In fairness, it probably does need to cut rates if the US treasury is to roll over US$8trn in debt and add another US$2trn on top without difficulty.

5) China fears. The constant Western media drumbeat on China is that the Chinese economy is imploding, that the renminbi is about to devalue, and that China is set to release a deflationary wave around the world that will make the Asian crisis look like a mere ripple. With a backdrop of such fears, you can see why the Fed might want to get few “insurance” cuts under its belt.

Against all these possible reasons to cut, the main reason Fed policymakers might want to sit on their hands is that Powell has made it clear he does not want to be remembered as another Arthur Burns. That’s basically it: the fear of being remembered as Arthur Burns versus the fear of no longer getting invited to D.C. dinner parties.

Looking at copper, gold, bitcoin, the US dollar and others, it increasingly looks as if the market has already decided. The fear of losing the dinner party invites is stronger than the fear of getting a bad rap in the history books. In any case, over the last few years the new motto of public life in Western democracies seems to have become “Après moi, le déluge.” Why expect a change now? The market is likely right to expect an easy Fed—and to position itself for reflation.

It’s Easter this weekend and while many around the world will be celebrating by eating chocolate easter eggs and setting out on easter egg hunts, some communities will be marking the days from Good Friday through to Easter Monday in far more unique ways.

The following chart, via Statista’s Anna Fleck, depicts just a handful of the more “out there” traditions and rituals that will be taking place.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Certainly the most extreme of the ten selected traditions takes place in the Philippines. In the city of San Fernando, particularly devout Christian worshippers reenact the crucifixion and flagellation of Christ, culminating with a small number even being nailed to the cross.

The Easter egg is a central theme to a couple of the traditions that make it into this map, including the tradition of making a giant omelet on Easter Monday in Haux, Gironde of France, which feeds the 1,000 residents of the town and needs more than 15,000 eggs. Meanwhile, in Germany, trees are decorated with painted eggs and ornaments – a very different kind of decoration to that of Papua New Guinea, where cigarettes and tobacco packets are hidden in trees around the church and given out to the congregation after service.

Other traditions in Europe include huge bonfires in Germany, men and boys playfully whipping girls and women with willow branches in Slovakia and children doing a kind of trick-or-treating in Sweden, where they go from door-to-door and exchange drawings or paintings for sweet treats. In Greece, clay pot hurling has become a popular custom where residents throw clay pots, known as “Botides,” off balconies when the church bells ring to mark the end of mass on Easter Sunday to represent the casting away of evil spirits, while on the Greek island of Chios, two churches that sit atop two separate hills fire homemade rockets at one another and win points for hitting the bell towers.

In Guatemala, residents of Antigua create intricate carpets to line the streets, called alfombras, made out of sawdust, pine needles and flowers, showing images of flowers, religious symbols and birds. These routes are later marched along by processions of worshippers carrying religious statues and icons.

Easter is a Christian festival that marks the Resurrection of Jesus Christ on the third day after his Crucifixion.

By Alex Kimani of OilPrice.com

The AI boom and Big Tech might be hogging all the media limelight right now, but the smart money is quietly piling into energy stocks. Indeed, the energy sector is the most crowded of all 11 U.S. market sectors, with the sector’s favorite benchmark, Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund up 10.7% in the year-to-date compared to a 7.9% return by the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund and 9.4% gain by the S&P 500.

According to Citi, Energy is now the most crowded U.S. quant factor, noting that once it hits that level, it tends to underperform over the next one to six months.

The stock market is in “one of the longest overbought periods in history. Typically, such an extreme is followed by a churning market over the short to intermediate term rather than a dramatic pullback, which reinforces Canaccord’s view to buy weakness if/when it comes,” analysts at Canaccord Genuity say.

But not everybody is bothered by the energy sector’s huge momentum. Morgan Stanley remains pessimistic about the U.S. stock market overall; however, MS has upgraded energy stocks to overweight from neutral (full report available to zerohedge pro subscribers), noting that energy companies have lagged the performance of oil, and the sector is favorably valued.

“Taking the Fed’s recent messaging into account and assuming it is less concerned about inflation or looser financial conditions, commodity-oriented cyclicals and energy in particular could be due for a catch-up,” they said.

Bullish on Energy

Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have noted that energy markets kicked off the new year with an overly pessimistic view of oil demand, and sees an oil price rally unfolding in the coming months. StanChart estimates that January oil demand clocked in at 100.24 million barrels per day (mb/d), good for a 2.67 mb/d year-over-year increase and 0.25 mb/d higher than StanChart’s latest forecast. StanChart has now revised its earlier 2024 demand growth forecast to 1.69 mb/d from 1.64 mb/d previously. The analysts have also predicted a sustained period of inventory draws in H1-2024, with the cumulative draw coming in at 185 mb compared with a H1-2023 build of 230 mb. 

StanChart has predicted that global demand will hit a new all-time high of 103.01 mb/d in May, with June setting a new record at 103.62 mb/d while August demand is expected to be even higher at 104.31 mb/d. StanChart says tightening oil markets will continue to power the oil price rally and has predicted Brent to average $94/bbl in Q2-2024.

Supply growth is likely to remain constrained, with StanChart predicting that U.S. crude supply will not grow significantly higher than November 2023’s all-time high of 13.319 mb/d. Meanwhile, Russia is intent on keeping supply tight in a bid to support higher prices. A few days ago, Moscow ordered oil companies to lower their output in the second quarter so that the country can meet its OPEC+ production target of 9 million barrels per day (bpd). Private sources have told Reuters that Moscow has given specific targets to each oil company, an indication of Moscow’s commitment to keep its OPEC+ pledge. Russian oil and gas condensate production has declined to 10.8 million currently from an annual peak of 11.7 million bpd in 2019 due to production cuts. The fall has come despite Russia experiencing a drilling boom even after concerted efforts by the U.S. and its allies to limit technology transfer. The withdrawal of major Western oil field service companies from Russia left their local subsidiaries to fill their void, and appear to be succeeding so far.

“Only some 15% of the nation’s domestic drilling market depends on technologies from so-called unfriendly nations,” Daria Melnik, vice-president for exploration and production at Rystad Energy, has revealed.

However, production disruptions due to Russia’s war in Ukraine continue. Last week, Russia’s Kuibyshev oil refinery halted one of its two primary refining units, effectively taking half of its capacity offline following a Ukraine drone attack. The attack over the weekend, the eighth on Russian refineries in the last three weeks, will knock another 35K bbl/day of Russian refinery capacity out of action, bringing a total of ~400K bbl/day offline on top of normal maintenance.

The full Morgan Stanley report is available to pro subscribers in the usual place

Five years after the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), sports betting continues to boom in the United States.

As Statista’s Felix Richter reports, according to the American Gaming Association, gross gaming revenue from sports betting, i.e. total wagers minus winnings, amounted to $10.9 billion in 2023, shattering the previous record set the year before. In total, Americans wagered almost $120 billion on legal sportsbooks last year, up from $93 billion in 2022. According to the AGA, last year’s growth was driven by continued maturation of existing markets as well as several new markets, including Massachusetts and Ohio.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Following its enactment by Congress in 1992, PASPA had effectively banned sports betting everywhere except for Nevada (and three other states that had certain betting games grandfathered in).

In 2012, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie signed a law allowing betting on professional and amateur sports at New Jersey casinos and racetracks, after which all major sports leagues had sued Christie for violating PASPA.

The lawsuit resulted in a long legal battle, which culminated in the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down PASPA in May 2018.

“Congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each State is free to act on its own,” the court had explained its decision back then. “Our job is to interpret the law Congress has enacted and decide whether it is consistent with the Constitution. PASPA is not. PASPA regulates state governments’ regulation of their citizens. The Constitution gives Congress no such power.”

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Heart scarring was detected more than one year after COVID-19 vaccination in some people who suffered myocarditis following receipt of a shot, researchers reported in new studies.

A third of 60 patients with follow-up cardiac imaging done more than 12 months after their myocarditis diagnosis had persistent late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), which is, in the majority of cases, reflective of heart scarring, Australian researchers reported in a preprint of a new study, published on March 22.

Myocarditis is a form of heart inflammation.

The median time from receipt of a vaccine to follow-up imaging was 548 days, with the longest interval being 603 days.

“We found that the incidence of persistent myocardial fibrosis is high, seen in almost a third of patients at >12 months post diagnosis, which could have implications for the management and prognosis of this predominantly young cohort,” the researchers wrote.

“The long-term clinical implications of LGE in this condition are as yet unknown, but LGE has been demonstrated to confer worse prognosis in non-COVID-19 vaccine-associated myocarditis, especially if it persists beyond six months,” they added later, pointing to several previous papers.

Researchers in one of the previous papers, for instance, found that LGE was a “powerful prognosticator” of adverse outcomes in myocarditis patients.

Before the new testing, nine patients were determined to definitely have myocarditis, and 58 patients were labeled as probably having myocarditis. The findings of persistent LGE resulted in reclassifying 16 of the cases from probable myocarditis to definite myocarditis.

Exclusions included patients who were pregnant or allergic to agents used in gadolinium testing.

Among a subset of 20 patients who underwent imaging shortly after vaccination, 19 had LGE. In follow-up imaging, LGE was no longer visible in 10 of those patients. In five, it was reduced, but in four it was unchanged.

Andrew Taylor, a professor at Monash University’s Central Clinical School, and his co-authors conducted the study by recruiting patients who were diagnosed with myocarditis associated with COVID-19 vaccination between August 2021 and March 2022. The patients were invited to undergo imaging at Alfred Hospital or Royal Children’s Hospital in Melbourne, Australia.

The study population with follow-up imaging included 44 adults and 16 adolescents.

Most of the patients had received a Pfizer-BioNTech shot. A minority had received a Moderna or AstraZeneca vaccination. The companies did not respond to requests for comment.

Limitations of the paper, which was published ahead of peer review, included possible selection bias, since participation in the study was voluntary. Authors listed no conflicts of interest or funding.

Another Paper

In the other recent paper, researchers in Canada reported finding about half of patients referred for imaging due to possible post-vaccination myocarditis had persistent LGE in follow-up imaging.

Overall, 60 patients were included in the retrospective study. Of those, seven reported persistent symptoms.

In a subset of 21 patients for whom follow-up MRIs were available, 10 had persistent LGE, the researchers said. On the other hand, function of the left ventricle, which pumps blood, had normalized in all patients.

The persistent LGE “likely reflects replacement fibrosis,” or heart scarring, Dr. Kate Hanneman, with the University of Toronto’s Department of Medical Imaging, and her co-authors wrote. They cited some of the same papers as the Australian group, including the study that found patients with persistent LGE had a higher risk of adverse outcomes, as well as a paper on what it represents when LGE is found on MRI in patients with myocarditis.

“However, the significance of LGE is uncertain in patients post-myocarditis with recovered normal left ventricular systolic function,” the researchers said. They called for additional studies to evaluate patients with persistent LGE and a recovered left ventricle.

The study included adult patients who were referred to a hospital network with suspected myocarditis and had new cardiac symptoms such as chest pain within 14 days of COVID-19 vaccination. The patients all received either the Pfizer or Moderna shot.

Limitations of the study, which was published by the Journal of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance, included a lack of biopsy-confirmed myocarditis.

The authors declared no funding and listed only one competing interest, that an author is an associate editor of the journal.

The corresponding authors for the two papers did not respond to requests for comment.

“My concern from reading these two studies is that myocardial damage and scarring is present in a significant number of COVID vaccine injured individuals at up to 18 months after vaccination. This suggests potential for permanent heart damage from the vaccines,” Dr. Danice Hertz, the research lead for the U.S. group React19, told The Epoch Times in an email. “The long-term implications are not yet known but need to be studied carefully.”

Earlier Findings

The new papers add to earlier studies, which found that LGE persists for months in some people following a COVID-19 shot.

Researchers in Washington state reported in 2022 that LGE persisted in children for up to eight months after vaccination. Later that year, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that more than half of 151 patients with follow-up imaging had residual LGE, which was described as “suggestive of myocardial scarring.”

The CDC has longer-term data on the patients, the agency confirmed to The Epoch Times in January, but has not yet published another paper describing that data. The CDC, which failed to warn the public about the risk of post-vaccination myocarditis, declined to comment on the new Australian and Canadian papers.

Hong Kong researchers in 2023 reported finding that about half of 40 patients with follow-up MRIs months after vaccination had LGE.

Symptoms have also persisted in some patients with post-vaccination myocarditis.

The CDC, describing preliminary updated results from its longer-term study, said in early 2023 that there were patients still suffering from symptoms more than one year after a shot. Researchers in Australia in late 2023 said that symptoms persisted at least six months after a shot in a majority of patients they followed. And some patients also told The Epoch Times they have lingering health issues years after vaccination.

A Russian military fighter jet has crashed into the Black Sea near Sevastopol, Crimea on Thursday, the region’s Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev has confirmed.

The announcement came after several social media videos surfaced showing what appears to be a Russian Su-35 aircraft falling from the sky in a large fireball. Many observers are speculating that the advanced Russian aircraft was shot down.

⚡️Russian Su-35 jet shot down over Sevastopol, Crimea pic.twitter.com/sGOXZ7SlZ5

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 28, 2024

Russian Telegram channels are also widely reporting the Su-35 crash. However, so far Crimean officials are merely ambiguously describing that it “crashed” and have not verified a shoot-down.

“A military plane crashed into the sea…No civilian objects were hurt. The pilot ejected… his life is not in danger,” the governor posted to Telegram.

While it would be unusual for a Russian fighter to be intercepted by Ukrainian weapons over Crimea – given Sevastopol is so far from the battlefield – there is a possibility Ukraine might be behind the intercept.

Several videos from multiple angles have emerged showing the jet falling rapidly while on fire…

More video of a fighter jet crashing over Sevostopol

According to Ukrainian media, it could be a Russian Su-35 4th generation fighter jet. According to unconfirmed information, the military plane could allegedly have been shot down by Russian air defense systems. pic.twitter.com/blylMZ996y

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) March 28, 2024

Throughout the war Crimea has come under frequent Ukraine attack, including with drones and medium to long-range missiles.

There are reports that earlier on Thursday local authorities in Sevastopol suspended maritime traffic, likely due to threat of new drone attacks. But some analysts have claimed it was a friendly fire incident – that the fighter may have been engaged by Russia’s own anti-air defenses.

Each Russian Su-35 jet costs an estimated $85 million. Russia has lost several aircraft throughout the conflict, including at least two or three large military transport planes.

Via Andrew Korybko’s Substack,

The emerging information warfare narrative being pushed by the West via Germany and the US right now is that India’s upcoming elections might be flawed.

India’s External Affairs Ministry summoned the US’ Acting Deputy Chief of Mission for a 40-minute meeting after State Department meddled in their country’s internal affairs by stating that “We encourage a fair, transparent, and timely legal process for Chief Minister Kejriwal.” The Chief Minister of Delhi was arrested over corruption claims last week ahead of India’s upcoming six-week-long elections, after which the Germany became the first to involve itself in this issue via a statement from its Foreign Ministry.

Its remarks were along the lines of the ones that America later made, thus leading to the External Affairs Ministry summoning its Deputy Chief of Mission for a tongue lashing. The fact that the US still issued the statement that it did despite knowing what India’s reaction would be can be interpreted as a political provocation aimed at meddling in its affairs. The emerging information warfare narrative being pushed by the West via Germany and the US right now is that India’s upcoming elections might be flawed.

Kejriwal is known as a vocal critic of the ruling BJP so some have speculated that the case against him is politically motivated and a means of intimidating the opposition ahead of the upcoming elections. There’s no basis to that claim but it nevertheless served as the pretext for those two countries to meddle in India’s affairs through their similar statements implying that he might not receive a fair trial. The larger context in which the US is involving itself in this affair concerns its newly troubled ties with India.

The preceding hyperlinked analyses touch upon the Justice Department’s charges against an unnamed Indian official in late November who’s accused of conspiring to assassinate a Delhi-designated terrorist-separatist with dual American citizenship on US soil last summer. The Anglosphere teamed up against India on this issue but it wasn’t until Monday that a non-Western country, notably China, chimed in to offer its input on this case.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian was asked about it by a journalist from Dragon TV, to which he responded that “We hope relevant countries will earnestly observe international law and the basic norms governing international relations.” While his reaction might seem perfunctory to many, it was interpreted by some in India as meddling, with a few also claiming that it confirms previously speculated ties between China and Delhi-designated terrorist-separatist Sikhs.

The optics of Germany, the US, and even China commenting on India’s internal affairs, the first two of whom did so about the Kejriwal case without being prompted and while the third shared their thoughts about the terrorist-separatist one in response to a question, is that foreign pressure is being ramped up ahead of the upcoming six-week-long elections that’ll run from 19 April-1 June. Accordingly, India couldn’t let German and US meddling go on with impunity, especially since they’re fellow democracies.

They know better than to involve themselves in India’s internal affairs yet still did so anyhow with the intent of discrediting its electoral process, which is driven by their dislike of Prime Minister Modi’s conservative-nationalist domestic policies and his truly multipolar foreign policy. Under his leadership, India has partnered with the liberal–globalist West like never before, but it won’t compromise on its sovereignty. That’s a problem for this bloc, however, hence why it wants to pressure him on any grounds.

Looking forward, India isn’t expected to escalate the situation by involving itself in Germany or the US’ internal affairs, though patriotic members of its society – including those in the media and think tanks – might become more critical of those two and the West in general in response to their meddling. Under no circumstances will India let anyone interfere with its domestic processes, let alone discredit its electoral ones by innuendo, so hopefully the West learns this lesson and ceases its troubling behavior.