Bitcoin & Bullion Back Near Record Highs As Rate-Cut Bets Battered

Ahead of the event risk of CPI, PPI, and FOMC Minutes this week, stocks ambled along while the STIRs market eviscerated more rate-cut hope, sending Treasury yields higher and gold and crypto also soared amid ‘policy error’ fears and geopolitical tensions.

VIX is certainly primed for some action this week (and then to return to normal)…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations for June fell back below 50%…

Source: Bloomberg

…and the market is now pricing in only 62bps of cuts in 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

As ‘No Landing’/Reflation starts to dominate the ‘Soft Landing’ narrative…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end outperforming (2Y +4bps, 30Y unch)…

Source: Bloomberg

…which flattened the yield curve (2s30s)…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks, broadly speaking, went nowhere today, except for Small Caps which pumped and dumped and pumped around the cash open. A late-day selloff made things worse…

Interestingly, 0-DTE traders fought the good fight today, buying calls aggressively into the equity market decline around lunchtime. While it stalled the decline, it did not prompt a rebound…

Source: SpotGamma

The MAG7 stock basket went nowhere on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks squeezed higher at the open and then went deadstick for the rest of the day…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar fell back towards Thursday’s lows today, after spiking back up on Friday’s payrolls print…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin soared back near record highs today nearing $73,000…

Source: Bloomberg

But, Ethereum (back above $3700) has dramatically outperformed Bitcoin in the last few days …

Source: Bloomberg

…having bounced off critical support…

Source: Bloomberg

…Perhaps as hope of an imminent ETH ETF re-awakens…

Several ETF issuers have met w/ SEC re: spot ether ETF, but according to Barron’s…

“Those discussions have largely been one-sided, w/out the agency giving companies critical feedback needed to finalize their products.”

May 23rd deadline quickly approaching.

via @joelight pic.twitter.com/TFUfXB1ZjL

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) April 8, 2024

Spot Gold prices topped $2350 overnight – a new record high – amid a frenzy of Chinese interest…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices fell overnight amid headlines that Israel was pulling troops out of Gaza but that quickly reversed on reality that it was a small withdrawal and then Bibi confirmed a data for an attack on Rafah…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, when will rates matter?

Source: Bloomberg

Maybe after this week’s Fed Minutes spoil the party?