If Biden Loses The Election, What Will Be The Top Reason

By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk

New Geography claims EVs will decide the election. That’s a reason, but it’s well down my list. What about yours?

EVs and the Election

New Geography says Electric Cars Will Decide the Outcome of the American Election.

Just last week the administration issued a draconian mileage requirement, one of many ‘nudge’ policies attempting to usher in an all-electric future. Replacing a massive $3 trillion industry with a singular technology represents a severe economic threat under any circumstances, but ramming through changes just as EV sales are slowing is nothing less than madness.

Rarely has a policy brought such negative economic and ultimately political implications. EVs today are simply not practical for most people, unable to afford the higher costs and wary of a charger infrastructure that is far from ready for prime time.

The average price for a brand-new EV is over $60,000, about $12,000 more than the average four-door sedan. Even with tax credits, it is hard to see how consumers come out ahead, at least for now. The electric version of the base version of the Ford F-150 pickup truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, costs an additional $26,000 over the gasoline-powered variety. EVs are not affordable for most Americans: it’s little wonder that only 16 per cent of them are seriously considering a purchase.

Disastrous Energy Policy

It’s true that Biden’s energy policy is a disaster. But right now EVs are more like slow boiling a frog. Most people don’t buy new cars, and most who do, don’t consider EVs.

I agree with the stupidity of Biden’s EV policy, but it won’t decide the election. I have not seen any polls that mention EVs as a reason.

The border and the economy, specifically home prices, are my top two.  Israel could easily be ahead of EVs. Heck, what about the botched trump trial in Georgia and overreach everywhere else?

If Recession hits, and it could, move that to spot #1. What about Biden’s Progressive woke madness?

Biden’s ban on natural gas exports could easily cost Biden the state of Pennsylvania. And don’t forget the impact of RFK siphoning off more votes from Biden than Trump.

White House Fact Sheet

On January 26, the Biden-⁠Harris Administration Announces Temporary Pause on Pending Approvals of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports

President Biden has been clear that climate change is the existential threat of our time – and we must act with the urgency it demands to protect the future for generations to come. That’s why, since Day One, President Biden has led and delivered on the most ambitious climate agenda in history, which is lowering energy costs for hardworking Americans, creating millions of good-paying jobs, safeguarding the health of our communities, and ensuring America leads the clean energy future.
 
Today, the Biden-Harris Administration is announcing a temporary pause on pending decisions on exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to non-FTA countries until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations. 

Natural Gas Production

In 2023, the United States leaped over Qatar and Australia to become the largest exporter of LNG.

According to the EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, Pennsylvania is the second largest Natural Gas producer in the US after Texas, and it is the third largest coal producer.

Wall Street Journal Poll

The above clip and the two that follow are from the Wall Street Journal – Targeted Presidential States: March 17 – 24, 2024 Poll.

About 20 percent of those polled do not believe either Biden or Trump are mentally and physically fit to be president. Otherwise, Trump clears the 50 percent mark on the economy, inflation, and immigration.

Biden only attained a single mark, at or above 40 percent. That was a 40 percent mark in Wisconsin for the economy.

Protecting Democracy, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Abortion

Neither candidate scored over 50 percent on Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Abortion, or Protecting Democracy.

Abortion is still a winning issue for Biden, but Trump can easily negate that with a statement that he would stay out of it or better yet, support abortion up to 15 weeks.

Biden is running on a platform of a strong economy that the public does not believe, abortion that will be decided at the state level not by a president, and protecting democracy.

Protecting democracy is not even a winning issue for Biden. With that, let’s return to the economy one more time.

Strength of the Economy

Nationally, it was unanimous, and by large scores, the economy is doing not so good or poor (first horizontal yellow highlight).

Only two states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, had more respondents who said things were worse in their state.

Across the board, more respondents in every state said their economy was getting worse than better. In Arizona and Pennsylvania, the margin of getting worse than getting better was more than 2-1 for getting worse.

It’s the Economy Stupid, But Why?

No poll to date has gotten to the specific point that is most likely to cost Biden the election.

It’s the economy, but specifically housing.

CPI Hot Again Led by Rent

For over two years, analysts said rent was declining or soon would be. But for the 30th consecutive month, rent was up at least 0.4 percent. Gasoline rose 3.8 percent adding to the misery.

Yet Another Groundhog Day for Rent

I repeat my core key theme for over two years now. People keep telling me rents are falling, I keep saying they aren’t.

Rent of primary residence, the cost that best equates to the rent people pay, jumped another 0.4 percent in December. Rent of primary residence has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 30 consecutive months! 

The “rents are falling” (or soon will) projections have been based on the price of new leases and cherry picked markets. But existing leases, more important, keep rising.

Q: Income keeps rising so why do more people in all the states keep saying things are getting worse?
A: Rent!

Some of “things are getting worse” is political. The rest expresses frustration with rent that keeps rising and rising and rising.

Compounding the problem are a bunch of Biden and a pack of clueless economists who keep reporting that rent is falling. Perhaps rent is falling in Austin and other seriously overdeveloped areas, but nationally, rents are still rising.

A decline in Austin isn’t going to do much good for anyone in Pennsylvania or Michigan.

Generational Homeownership Rates

The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Hits New Record High

On March 29, I noted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Hits New Record High

How many zoomers can afford to buy a home with mortgage rates at 7.0 percent and home prices at a record high?

Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History

On March 15, I commented Gen Z, the Most Pessimistic Generation in History, May Decide the Election

Economic Reality

Gen Z may be the first generation in US history that is not better off than their parents.

Many have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford a home.

The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is high with younger millennials and zoomers.

This has been a constant theme of mine for many months.

Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar

OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.

However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.

This allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 struggling to make ends meet.

Happiness Age 30 and Below

On March 20, I commented US Drops to Number #23 in the World Happiness Report

For those age 30 and younger, the US fell to spot #62. The US is number 10 for age group 60 and above.

Record High Credit Card Debt

Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.

For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011.

Auto Loan Delinquencies

Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.

Those struggling with rent and auto loans are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.

The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.

What Will and Won’t Decide the Election?

• For younger voters, and blacks, the economy, specifically housing, will be the deciding issue. Biden may still carry this group, but by far less percentages than in 2020.
• For older voters, especially independents who own their own house, the key factors are likely to be immigration, Biden’s wokeness, and Biden’s age.
• In Pennsylvania, natural gas and energy policy will come into play.
• The abortion issue was a huge loser for Republicans in the 2022 midterms. But given the Supreme Court ruling, the matter is up to states. Trump can lessen the issue more by staying away, or better yet pushing back against more extreme measures.
• Biden is campaigning on a need to “Protect Democracy”. Other than abortion, he has little else. But polls show that is not even a winning issue for him. His extreme woke policies, flouting the Supreme Court, and energy mandates have cost him this issue.

Trump Ahead in Swing States

For more on the recent WSJ poll, please see Trump Leads Biden in 6 of 7 Swings States, Pennsylvania is Key

There has not been a single poll suggesting housing specifically.

Nonetheless, based on the above data, I suggest that it’s the top issue among younger voters and blacks. Generation Z and blacks feel economically left behind, never able to afford a house, with rent jumping every year.

Housing is the single most important issue. Blaming immigration is likely a scapegoat for many.

For independents, a trio of ideas that will make it hard for Biden to win. And finally, RFK is more likely to take votes from Biden than Trump.

EVs are a losing issue for Biden, but dwarfed by a half dozen other items. If a recession hits, Trump could easily win in a landslide.