UMich Inflation Expectations Jump Higher At Start Of April, Sentiment Sinks But Democrats Happy

CPI is resurgent, PPI’s trend is no longer lower, and this morning we saw import and export prices rising (or not falling) at their fastest pace in a year…

Source: Bloomberg

We say all that because this morning, we are told by UMich that in preliminary April data, Americans’ expectations for inflation jumped higher…

Source: Bloomberg

“These increases in inflation expectations are modest enough that consumers do not appear worried that high inflation will come roaring back,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

However, “while consumers are fully aware that inflation has come down substantially since 2022, they are not satisfied by the current pace of disinflation.”

The headline UMich sentiment index declined, led by a drop in ‘current conditions’…

Source: Bloomberg

“Expectations over personal finances, business conditions, and labor markets have all been stable over the last four months,” according to UMich.

“However, a slight uptick in inflation expectations in April reflects some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled.”

Democrats appear the most confident, with their sentiment pushing to its highest since June 2021. This as both Republicans and Independents saw confidence decline…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, it appears all those illegal immigrants that are stuffing the payrolls prints are not buying large household durables…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, UMich notes, that consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy.