“I Didn’t Do That”: Biden Reportedly Has No Idea He Issued ‘Trans Day Of Visibility’ Proclamation

“I Didn’t Do That”: Biden Reportedly Has No Idea He Issued ‘Trans Day Of Visibility’ Proclamation

Is this an April Fool’s Day joke? While Democrats have spent the better part of the last six months insisting that President Biden is a well-oiled galaxy brain behind closed doors, the POTUS clearly can’t keep up with his marxist handlers.

Point in case, when asked about proclaiming Easter Sunday “trans day of visibility,” Biden flat out denied it.

“I didn’t do that,” Biden reportedly said when asked about the proclamation, RealClear Politics’ Philip Wegmann reports.

When asked about Speaker Johnson’s claim that he had, Biden replied, “he’s thoroughly uninformed.

Except, as we all know, that’s complete bullshit.

Of course, the biggest takeaway from this is obviously: Who’s running the show? 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 13:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/DuZ95BE Tyler Durden

Utah Formally Empowers State Treasurer To Protect State Funds With Gold And Silver

Utah Formally Empowers State Treasurer To Protect State Funds With Gold And Silver

Authored by Jp Cortez via The Mises Institute,

Utah Governor Spencer Cox has signed legislation explicitly empowering the state treasurer to protect state funds with an allocation to physical gold and silver.

Sponsored by Rep. Ken Ivory, House Bill 348 permits – but does not require – the Treasurer to hold up to 10 percent of certain state reserve accounts in physical gold and silver to help secure state assets against the risks of inflation and financial turmoil and/or to achieve capital gains as measured in Federal Reserve Notes.

The Treasurer has limited options for holding, managing, and investing Utah’s state monies, making this legislation necessary in order for gold and silver to be included.

Utah’s reserves are invested almost exclusively in corporate bonds and banking agencies. These debt instruments appear to have low volatility, but they carry other risks – including pernicious inflation and the steady erosion in real value of principal, coupled with interest rates that are often negative in real terms.

The legislation specifically pertains to the State Disaster Recovery Restricted Account, General Fund Budget Reserve Account, Income Tax Fund Budget Reserve Account, and the Medicaid Growth Reduction and Budget Stabilization Account.

Backed by the Sound Money Defense LeagueMoney Metals Exchange, and in-state advocates, House Bill 348 does not grant authority to buy stocks, futures contracts, or other financial instruments.

“By allowing the state treasurer to invest in the monetary metals, Utah is better equipped to protect Utah taxpayer funds, and the residents of Utah, against inflation and counterparty risk,” said Jp Cortez, executive director of the Sound Money Defense League.

An allocation to physical gold and silver fits squarely within the objective of protecting Utah’s state funds against financial risks and would logically be included in a list of safe investment options. The monetary metals can provide a hedge against inflation, debt default risks, and stock market declines – and have historically boosted investment returns while also reducing volatility.

Texas and Ohio have previously acquired gold. Meanwhile, legislation like HB 348 is under consideration right now in Missouri, Tennessee, Idaho, and West Virginia.

The new law also prompts the state treasurer to conduct a study “analyzing the role of precious metals in augmenting, stabilizing, and ensuring the economic security and prosperity of the state, the families and residents of the state, and businesses in the state.”

The study is to be submitted to the Revenue and Taxation Interim Committee on or before the committee’s October interim committee meeting any recommendations for legislation as per the study’s findings.

Utah has been among the leading states promoting sound money public policy, starting with the passage of the Utah Legal Tender Act in 2011, also led by Rep. Ivory. The enactment of Utah House Bill 348 comes on the heels of Wisconsin this week becoming the 44th state in the country to end the sales tax on the purchase of gold and silver.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 12:40

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Tether Adds 8,888 BTC Worth $600 Million To Bitcoin Treasury, On-Chain Data Shows

Tether Adds 8,888 BTC Worth $600 Million To Bitcoin Treasury, On-Chain Data Shows

Authored by Vivek Sen via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Stablecoin issuer Tether has significantly expanded its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring 8,888 BTC worth around $600 million.

This latest purchase was revealed through on-chain data rather than an official announcement.

Tether has not publicly disclosed its Bitcoin addresses. However, transactions tracked on the blockchain show 8,888 BTC were recently sent from the crypto exchange Bitfinex to an undisclosed Tether wallet.

The recipient address now holds over 75,000 BTC worth $5.3 billion.

In May 2023, Tether first revealed it was allocating a portion of its reserves to Bitcoin, with plans to invest up to 15% of quarterly profits.

“The decision to invest in bitcoin, the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency, is underpinned by its strength and potential as an investment asset,” Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Tether, said in the statement when they announced their Bitcoin strategy.

While unconfirmed, analysts believe the identified wallet likely belongs to Tether.

The amount perfectly matches its pledged buying strategy and claimed holdings in its latest financial reports.

Tether has emerged as a major player in Bitcoin markets and its accumulation race.

The company is now estimated to be the seventh largest holder of BTC.

Its steady purchases, combined with those of institutional investors like MicroStrategy, tighten supply. Critics have raised concerns about Tether’s lack of transparency and the potential market risks of its growing bitcoin stash. However, its embrace of Bitcoin also shows the asset’s broadening mainstream acceptance. Tether aims to capitalize on Bitcoin’s growth while diversifying its reserves away from traditional assets like government debt.

Tether is one of the world’s largest holders of U.S. Treasuries.

This latest $600 million acquisition is unlikely to be Tether’s last.

As the stablecoin leader continues executing its Bitcoin investment strategy, its influence over Bitcoin markets is only set to increase.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 12:00

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Iranian Embassy In Syria Targeted By Large Israeli Airstrikes In Major Escalation

Iranian Embassy In Syria Targeted By Large Israeli Airstrikes In Major Escalation

There are emerging reports and accompanying video confirmation that an Israeli airstrike destroyed part of the complex of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital on Monday.

Syrian state media is also reporting that Israel conducted a rare daytime strike in the vicinity of the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Video shows that the entire front of the embassy complex and drive along with a side annex building have been destroyed. 

However, the embassy building itself is standing and appears to have not been directly struck in the attack. Regional reports say an annex of the main embassy was taken out.

This may have been a targeted strike on a top Iranian security official, given Reuters is now reporting that the strikes killed the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi…

  • ISRAELI AIRSTRIKE ON DAMASCUS KILLS LEADER OF IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS MOHAMMAD REZA ZAHEDI, SECURITY SOURCE TO REUTERS
  • IRAN’S ARABIC LANGUAGE AL ALAM TV SAYS IRANIAN CONSULATE BUILDING IN SYRIA HAS BEEN COMPLETELY DESTROYED

Below is local footage showing a row of vehicles on fire in the attack aftermath:

Amid unverified early reports, a regional monitor has said the death toll is at eight killed in the strikes on the Iran embassy annex in Damascus.

According to Israeli media, the attack occurred during a meeting of top-level officials:

Initial reports citing Iranian media say senior IRGC official Mohammad Reza Zahedi was killed in the alleged Israeli strike. 

The strike occurred during a meeting involving senior regional figures, adding a layer of complexity to the incident. New images released by Syrian media outlets depict the aftermath of the airstrike, revealing significant damage to the targeted building and its surroundings.

Reuters cites Iran’s SSN news website, which alleges that the Israeli airstrike specifically targeted Iran’s consulate and ambassador’s residence in Damascus.

Earlier on Monday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed damage to Eilat navy base on the Red Sea, in what appeared to be an unprecedented targeted drone launch by Iran-backed Iraqi militia.

Oil prices are already reacting to this increased geopolitical tension…

This was a very high risk strike also given the Iranian embassy is right next door to the Canadian embassy. 

The Mezzeh area of Damascus is also lined with restaurants, malls, and bars — and also is home to an important military airport and some key government facilities.

There’s a lot of daily foot traffic at the Iranian embassy too, given that Damascus has long been a Shia pilgrimage spot and sees a constant influx of Iranian visitors.

An Al Jazeera correspondent, Zeina Khodr, has highlighted international law and norms regarding banning aggression against countries’ sovereign diplomatic sites in the following…

“Killing of top Iran Quds Force commander in Damascus is a major blow … but Iranian media says bldg destroyed was part of Iranian consulate – Israel hit a diplomatic mission which should enjoy immunity – Israel has crossed red lines – how will Iran react?

This now opens up the possibility that Tehran could strike back at Israel’s embassies and consulates abroad, in yet more worrying and unpredictable escalation.

developing…

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 11:40

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Drone Launched From Iraq Slams Into Israeli Base For First Time Of War

Drone Launched From Iraq Slams Into Israeli Base For First Time Of War

In a significant first of the Gaza war marking a very serious escalation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have confirmed that a drone which slammed into a naval base in Israel’s southernmost city of Eilat early Monday morning was launched from Iraq.

The IDF its statement said it identified a “suspicious aerial target” that breached Israeli airspace “from the east” before making impact “in the Eilat Bay area” on the Red Sea. While this isn’t necessarily the first instance of Iraqi militant groups claiming to have fired on Eliat, it appears to be the first time that direct impact was made on an Israeli navy base and that the IDF has confirmed it.

The port of Eilat. Image via Israel Hayom

The military statement described that the attack resulted in damage to hangar at Eilat naval base but there were no casualties. While air raid warning sirens were triggered, regional reports indicate that anti-air defenses were not active.

Reuters at the same time picked up on a claim of responsibility from a prominent Iran-backed Shia militia in Iraq:

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a militia, said in a statement that it had attacked a “vital objective” in Israel “using appropriate weapons”. It did not offer further details.

Eilat has come under repeated missile and drone attack from the Iranian-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen during Israel’s almost six-month-old war against Hamas in Gaza. In November, Israel said a group in Syria had launched a drone that hit the port city.

Israeli media too is taking the statement as confirmation that the drone was launched from Iraq. The Times of Israel wrote: “The reference to the projectile’s origin being to the east appeared to confirm a claim by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed paramilitary groups, that it had fired on Israel.”

While projectiles sent from Yemen, Syria, or Lebanon against targets inside Israel have been somewhat of a constant since the Oct.7 terror attacks, that a drone reached all the way into southern Israel from Iraq is a significant first of the conflict.

Early in the war Iran-linked groups in both Iraq and Syria were frequently attacking US bases in the region, however this new strike could be a sign that they are seeking to take the fight directly to Israeli soil.

The type of longer range and more sophisticated drones needed for such an operation out of Iraq were likely supplied by the Iranians, which is sure to increase tensions between longtime enemies Tehran and Tel Aviv. Israel has already long accused the Islamic Republic of funding and supporting both Hamas and Hezbollah. This has also been the case with Yemen’s Houthis.

The question remains whether more Iraqi militants will launch more drone attacks on Israeli soil, as to some extent this would open yet another ‘front’ in the war. Just last Friday Israel mounted its largest airstrikes on Syria in years, resulting in some 40 people killed.

Building in Eilat hit in a drone attack, reportedly launched from Iraq, April 1, 2024. Source: Times of Israel

The airstrikes were conducted deep in northern Syria’s Aleppo province. Casualties reportedly included Syrian soldiers, Hezbollah militants, and civilians. The anti-Assad opposition and UK-based organization Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that the Aleppo attack left the highest number of dead among Syrian soldiers in a single such Israeli attack. While Israel doesn’t typically directly own up to or confirm such attacks on Syrian soil, its military has been conducting sporadic attacks on Syria going back years.

In 2022 there were reports that Iran’s navy was actually practicing attacks on Eliat naval base using a mock facility and live fire training, which was highlighted at the time in Israeli media.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 11:20

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Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Powell, ISM And Fed Speakers Galore

Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Powell, ISM And Fed Speakers Galore

With the first quarter officially in the books, and just days until we start getting Q1 earnings (it sure does feel like we now live in one extra long earnings season), we have quite a few events this busy week starting with today’s March manufacturing ISM print – which as noted earlier printed at 50.3, up from 47.8, above the 48.3 consensus and the first print above the 50 threshold reading since September 2022 (sparking a selloff in Treasuries and pushing the USD lower). Beyond today we get lots of Fed Speak (at least 8 speakers on deck including Jerome Powell), Friday’s Payrolls, Euro Zone CPI and OPEC+ EURA.

The flood of scheduled Fed speakers will likely set the tone for the new quarter and month, including appearances from Chair Jerome Powell (who also spoke on Friday reiterating his previous non-committal comments) and the incoming St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. The US jobs report due on Friday needs no introduction while the ISM surveys are also worth watching for an update on the health of the US economy.

The March jobs report (Apr 5) will be the main focus in the coming week. Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200k (vs. 275k in February). One of the reasons BofA is calling for a slowdown in job growth is that payrolls in the month of March have shown a tendency to be weak relative to February in recent years. For a similar reason, the bank is expecting private payrolls to slow from +223k in February to a below-consensus +150k in March. Average hourly earnings (AHE), meanwhile, are likely to rise by 0.3% m/m or 4.1% y/y. The quits rate and posted wage growth from Indeed point to a moderation in y/y rates for AHE. Average weekly hours should increase by a tenth to 34.4.

On the household (HH) survey side, BofA expects the unemployment rate (u-rate) to remain at 3.9%. But the HH employment data have been much weaker than NFP in recent months. This means we could see some payback – e.g. stronger HH employment growth than NFP and a lower u-rate. But if the divergence continues, there is risk of a higher u-rate. Also, expect the labor force participation rate to recover by a tenth to 62.6%. This is because BofA expects a rebound in the 16-24 years category, which declined by 0.4ppt in February

In Europe, consumer price data from the euro area should help shape interest-rate cut expectations with traders close to fully pricing in a 25 basis point European Central Bank reduction in June. Swiss inflation will also garner some interest after the surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank last week.

The OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee will meet on Wednesday although delegates see no need to recommend any changes to oil supply policy.

Here is a day by day analysis of key global events, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Monday, April 1

  • China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • US ISM manufacturing and construction spending
  • Fed’s Cook speaks

Tuesday, April 2

  • RBA minutes
  • German CPI
  • ECB consumer expectations survey
  • US factory orders and JOLTS
  • Fed’s Bowman, Williams, Mester and Daly
  • Chile central bank rate decision

Wednesday, April 3

  • China Caixin service PMI
  • Euro zone CPI and unemployment rate
  • US ADP employment change and ISM services
  • Fed’s Powell, Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee and Kugler
  • OPEC+ JMMC meeting

Thursday, April 4

  • Swiss CPI
  • Euro zone PPI
  • ECB minutes
  • BOE decision maker panel survey
  • US initial jobless claims and trade balance
  • Fed’s Harker, Goolsbee, Barkin, Mester and Musalem

Friday, April 5

  • German factory orders
  • Euro zone retail sales
  • US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings
  • Canada employment change and unemployment rate
  • Fed’s Bowman, Logan, Barkin and Kugler

* * *

Focusing just on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing report on Monday, the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISM services report on Wednesday, and the employment situation report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Powell on Wednesday.

Monday, April 1

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (Bloomberg consensus 52.5, last 52.5)
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, February (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.7%, last -0.2%)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, March (GS 49.1, consensus 48.4, last 47.8): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 1.3pt to 49.1 in March, reflecting the rebound in global manufacturing activity.
  • 06:50 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will give acceptance remarks at the Lifetime Achievement Awards Ceremony held by the Cook Center at Duke University in Washington, DC. Speech text will be made available. On March 25th, Cook said that “the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. Nonetheless, fully restoring price stability may take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy over time.”

Tuesday, April 2

  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, February (GS 8,650k, consensus 8,775k, last 8,863k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings fell by 0.2mn to 8.65mn in February, reflecting the pullback in online job postings.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.0%, last -3.6%); Durable goods orders, February final (consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last +0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last -0.4%)
  • 10:10 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on “Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and De Novo Bank Formation: Implications for the Future of the Banking System” at a virtual event. Speech text will be made available. On February 27th, Bowman noted that, “should the incoming data continue to indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower our policy rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive. In my view, we are not yet at that point.”
  • 12:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion at the Economic Club of New York with Jeremy Siegel, professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. On February 28th, Williams said that “something like three [fed funds] rate cuts is a reasonable starting point” for 2024. President Williams also noted that “the risks to my forecast are two sided. Inflation may surprise to the upside, or consumer strength may fade more quickly than I anticipate.”
  • 12:05 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give remarks on the economic outlook at the Cleveland Association for Business Economics and Team NEO Luncheon. A moderated Q&A is expected. On February 29th, Mester said that three rate cuts “feel about right to me if the economy evolves as I anticipate it will.”
  • 01:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a Southern Nevada fireside chat, followed by a moderated Q&A. On February 29th, Daly said that “It would be appropriate as inflation comes down to bring the nominal rate of interest down to make sure we’re not holding on even tighter. We want to avoid holding on all the way to 2%, putting policy very tight and then cause an unnecessary downturn.”
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, March (GS 16.1mn, consensus 15.9mn, last 15.8mn)

Wednesday, April 3

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, March (GS +120k, consensus +150k, last +140k): We estimate a 120k rise in ADP payroll employment in March, reflecting a solid underlying pace of job growth but a drag from residual seasonality: the ADP measure has slowed in March in each of the last three years and four of the last six.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, March final (consensus 51.7, last 51.7)
  • 09:45 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on Bank Liquidity, Regulation and the Fed’s Role as the Lender of Last Resort in Washington, DC. Speech text will be made available.
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, March (GS 53.6, consensus 52.8, last 52.6): We estimate that the ISM services index rose 1.0pt to 53.6 in March, reflecting solid growth and favorable seasonality. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker edged up 0.1pt to 52.1.
  • 12:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give opening remarks at the virtual event “Preventing Elder Financial Exploitation: Research, Policies and Strategies.” On March 25th, Goolsbee said that he expected three rate cuts this year and noted that “we are in this murky period where we have to strike a balance of the dual mandate.”
  • 12:10 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 29th, Powell said that that February PCE inflation data “were pretty much in-line with our expectations” and the committee is looking to see “more good inflation readings like the ones we were getting last year” to feel “confident that inflation is moving down to 2% on a sustained basis.” Powell also noted that he doesn’t think interest rates will go back down to the very low levels they were before the pandemic, but exactly where they will settle is “hard to say.”
  • 01:10 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak about the Community Reinvestment Act in Washington, DC. A moderated Q&A is expected. On February 14th, Barr said that “my FOMC colleagues and I are confident we are on a path to 2% inflation, but we need to see continued good data before we can begin the process of reducing the federal funds rate.”
  • 04:30 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak on the “Outlook for the US Economy and Monetary Policy” in St. Louis. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 1st, Kugler said “I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued progress on disinflation without significant deterioration of the labor market.”

Thursday, April 4

  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$68.3bn, consensus -$67.0bn, last -$67.4bn)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 30 (GS 205k, consensus 215k, last 210k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 23 (consensus 1,810k, last 1,819k)
  • 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will participate in a fireside chat about second chance employment. A Q&A is expected. On February 22nd, Harker said “I believe we may be in the position to see the rate decrease this year. But I would caution anyone from looking for it right now and right away. We have time to get this right, as we must.”
  • 12:15 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech on his economic outlook to the Home Building Association of Richmond. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 1st, Barkin said “I’m still hopeful inflation is going to come down and if inflation normalizes then it makes the case for why you want to normalize rates, but to me it starts with inflation.”
  • 12:45 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon and Expo.
  • 02:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on the economic outlook in a virtual event. A Q&A is expected.
  • 07:20 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give introductory remarks at the 2024 Women in Economics Symposium. This is Musalem’s first public appearance since he was named the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on January 4th 2024.
  • 07:30 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak on enriching data and analysis with real life experiences. Speech text will be made available.

Friday, April 5

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +215k, consensus +200k, last +275k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +175k, consensus +165k, last +223k); Average hourly earnings (mom), March (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), March (GS +4.04%, consensus +4.1%, last +4.3%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 3.8%, consensus 3.8%, last 3.9%); Labor force participation rate, March (GS 62.5%, consensus 62.5%, last 62.5%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 215k in March (mom sa), reflecting a continued boost from above-normal immigration as new entrants to the labor force are matched to open positions. Big Data measures also generally indicate a solid or strong pace of job gains, and our layoff tracker indicates that the pace of layoffs remains low. We nonetheless assume a slowdown from the February payroll gain of +275k because we believe a favorable swing in the weather boosted that report by as much as 75k. We estimate that the unemployment rate fell one tenth to 3.8%. Foreign-born unemployment increased by nearly 250k over the last three months, and we assume many of the new entrants found jobs during the March payroll month. We assume a flat-to-up labor force participation rate of 62.5%. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.25% (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by three tenths to 4.0%, reflecting waning wage pressures but a roughly 5bp boost from calendar effects (mom sa).
  • 09:15 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech on economic outlook. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
  • 11:00 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at an event hosted by the Duke University Economics Department. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On March 1st, Logan said “slower [balance sheet] runoff is a way to approach the ample point more gradually, allowing banks to redistribute funds and the FOMC to carefully judge when we have gone far enough. This strategy will mitigate the risk of undesired liquidity stresses from QT.”
  • 12:15 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on the “Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current & Past Considerations” at the Shadow Open Market Committee spring meeting in New York. Speech text and Q&A are expected.

Source: BBG, Goldman

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 11:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/iqYf5OK Tyler Durden

How The Federal Reserve Created An American Caste System

How The Federal Reserve Created An American Caste System

Authored by E.J.Antoni via The Epoch Times,

In 1913, Woodrow Wilson and his progressives promised that the Federal Reserve would avert both depressions and inflation, while preventing the wealthy from controlling America’s financial markets at the expense of the poor.

More than a century later, it’s clear that was all a lie, and the Fed has helped create a permanent American underclass.

The Fed was designed to transfer wealth from the American people to the government, mostly through the hidden tax of inflation. But this process has prevented countless American families from being able to save and get ahead, because their savings are constantly losing value.

For two decades, the Fed kept interest rates artificially low to help finance massive government spending. When that spending reached unprecedented heights in 2020, the Fed intervened more drastically than ever, creating trillions of dollars and devaluing the currency.

Thus began an unparalleled transfer of wealth that continues to this day, and which has driven a wedge between different groups of Americans.

The painful inflation of the last three years has increased prices throughout the economy, distorting the signals that prices are supposed to convey to buyers and sellers. For example, the cost to own a median-price home today has doubled since January 2021, but it’s still the same house.

This phenomenon represents the monetization of housing, where a dwelling becomes a much better store of value than the currency, even if the real value of the house hasn’t improved.

Likewise, Americans’ earnings have increased substantially over the last three years, but not in the most meaningful sense—that is, what they can buy. Instead, the opposite has happened, and today’s larger incomes buy less.

What would have been a decent salary in 2019 is no longer enough to even get by in many places, and it’s certainly not enough to ever fulfill the American dream of homeownership.

A family earning the median household income can afford a median-price home in only a handful of major metropolitan areas in the entire country. In many cities, the cost to own a median price home exceeds the take-home pay from the median household income. Even if you didn’t spend a dime on other necessities such as food, you still wouldn’t have enough for your mortgage payment.

It’s truly a condemnation of the status quo when even those with seemingly high incomes cannot afford a typical house.

Worse, as prices continue marching upward, people can save less, making it harder to accrue a sufficient down payment. Even by the time a family reaches their goal, home prices have increased again, and they’re back on the hamster wheel, trying to save for an even larger down payment.

Meanwhile, inflation is steadily, though silently, taxing away the real value of the family’s savings as they sit in the bank.

This has left countless Americans as perpetual renters, with almost an entire generation of young people giving up on having the standard of living that their parents had. An artificial chasm has been constructed between those who already own capital, like housing, and the remaining Americans who can only borrow such assets, as they do by renting.

Similarly, many of those struggling to afford sharply increased rents are going deeply into debt to keep a roof over their head while those who locked in a mortgage with a fixed interest rate before both home prices and interest rates exploded have shielded themselves from one of the largest drivers behind the cost-of-living increases of the last three years.

Many homeowners could not afford to buy their same home today. The monthly mortgage payment on a median-price home has doubled since January 2021. Thus, even if two families have identical incomes, the one that bought a home three years ago has a nearly insurmountable advantage over the other family trying to do so today.

The Fed’s monetary manipulations have financed trillions of dollars in federal budget deficits, but they’ve also created a permanent American underclass, something antithetical to the Founders’ vision for the country.

Class mobility is at the heart of the American dream, and the Fed has turned it into a nightmare.

 *  *  *

Originally published by The Washington Times; reprinted by permission from The Daily Signal, a publication of The Heritage Foundation.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 10:55

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Left Livid Over Trump Ally Efforts To Eliminate Anti-White Policies

Left Livid Over Trump Ally Efforts To Eliminate Anti-White Policies

With Donald Trump’s popularity growing among black and latino voters, it’s only natural to assume that a revived effort to paint him as a racist would follow.

In a Monday ‘exclusive’ report, Axios is absolutely beside themselves, writing “Trump allies plot anti-racism protections — for white people” (emphasis ours).

There’s a plot afoot!

Trump’s Justice Department would push to eliminate or upend programs in government and corporate America that are designed to counter racism that has favored whites.

Does racism still favor whites? Last we checked, white people, particularly white men – who ‘toxically mansplain’ everything, are the scourge of the universe.

Oh.

Anyhow, Axios has presented quite the narrative; the Trump campaign’s longstanding promise to eliminate Biden DEI initatives + efforts by Trump allies to legally combat anti-white racism “with the Supreme Court’s turn to the right” = racism.

First, here’s what Trump said last year: 

Every institution in America is under attack from this Marxist concept of ‘equity,'” adding “I will get this extremism out of the White House, out of the military, out of the Justice Department, and out of our government.”

Trump campaign spox Steven Cheung told Axios: “As President Trump has said, all staff, offices, and initiatives connected to Biden’s un-American policy will be immediately terminated,” adding “President Trump is committed to weeding out discriminatory programs and racist ideology across the federal government.

This is apparently a very bad thing.

Longtime aides and allies preparing for a potential second Trump administration have been laying legal groundwork with a flurry of lawsuits and legal complaints — some of which have been successful.

  • A central vehicle for the effort has been America First Legal, founded by former Trump aide Stephen Miller, who has called the group conservatives’ “long-awaited answer to the ACLU.”
  • America First cited the Civil Rights Act of 1964 in February in a lawsuit against CBS and Paramount Global for what the group argued was discrimination against a white, straight man who was a writer for the show “Seal Team” in 2017. -Axios

Axios then picks what we can assume they consider to be the most racist example – the February filing of a civil rights complaint against the NFL over the “Rooney Rule,” which America First says violates “Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and engaging in race and sex discrimination,” as the purpose of the 2003 rule was “increas[ing] the number of minorities hired in head coach, general manager, and executive positions,” to address “the historically low number of minorities in head coaching positions.”

The Rooney Rule has been amended several times since its adoption and now requires teams to interview at least two external minority candidates for head coach and general manager vacancies, at least one external minority for a coordinator job, and at least one minority and/or female candidate for senior level positions, such as club president and senior executives.

Effectively, in the twenty years that the Rooney Rule has been in existence, all it has done – according to minority interviewees for head coaching positions and the former head of the NFL Players Association DeMaurice Smith – is result in member clubs engaging in sham interviews with minority candidates solely to check the Rooney Rule box. Given the limited timeframe to hire executives and coaches after the season, this results in fewer opportunities for similarly situated, well-qualified candidates who are not minorities. -America First Legal

Meanwhile, Axios notes that the Heritage Foundation’s “well-funded “Project 2025“” is “preparing for a future Trump Justice Department to implement — or challenge — policies on a broader scale.”

Part of the plan, written by former Trump DOJ official and America First’s general counsel Gene Hamilton, argues that “advancing the interests of certain segments of American society … comes at the expense of other Americans — and in nearly all cases violates longstanding federal law.

Efforts to combat anti-white racism have been successful, because of, recall, the Supreme Court’s “turn to the right” – so extra racist.

  • In 2021, a federal judge blocked a $4 billion program to help Black farmers.
  • Earlier this month, another federal judge ruled that the Commerce Department’s Minority Business Development Agency was discriminating against white people and that the program had to be open to everyone. -Axios

Heaven forbid people be judged by the content of their character.

Who do they think they’re fooling? Oh right.

 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 10:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/IbPqcC8 Tyler Durden

JK Rowling Could Be Imprisoned For “Misgendering” Trans People Under New Law

JK Rowling Could Be Imprisoned For “Misgendering” Trans People Under New Law

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Author JK Rowling could be prosecuted for “misgendering” trans people under Scotland’s odious new hate crime law that comes into force today, an SNP minister has admitted.

Senior police officers are expecting a deluge of complaints over online posts after the Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act 2021 created a new crime of “stirring up hatred” relating to age, disability, religion, sexual orientation, transgender identity or being intersex.

A person could now be imprisoned for up to seven years if they engage in “insulting” behaviour towards ‘protected’ groups, and the prosecution only needs to prove that the hatred was “likely” rather than “intended”.

Siobhian Brown, the SNP’s community safety minister, initially stated that calling a “trans woman” (a man) “he” would not be a crime.

However, after the law came into force, Brown stated, “It could be reported and it could be investigated. Whether or not the police would think it was criminal is up to Police Scotland for that.”

Rowling has vowed to continue calling biological males men and says she will now be targeted for telling the truth.

During their training program on enforcing the new law, police officers were taught that even the content of plays and comedy gigs should be considered as potential hate crimes.

Many have asserted that merely retweeting a Ricky Gervais joke about transgender people could amount to a hate crime in Scotland.

As we previously highlighted, authorities admit that dealing with the expected flood of hate crime reports would prevent them from investigating real crimes.

A Police Scotland pilot in Aberdeen which was deemed a “success” and is expected to be implemented means “more than 24,000 offences a year will no longer be allocated to a front-line officer.”

Been a victim of burglary? Tough, the police are too busy clamping down on tweets that offend transgender activists.

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Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 10:15

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/8IL6Xzd Tyler Durden

Manufacturing PMIs Mixed On Growth But Both See Prices Soaring

Manufacturing PMIs Mixed On Growth But Both See Prices Soaring

‘Hard’ data has been soaring since the start of the year – as ‘soft’ data collapses – so all eyes are on this morning’s Manufacturing PMIs (surveys) for an end to that trend.

Source: Bloomberg

But, of course, there is normally something for everyone in this data as last month saw ISM’s data tumble while S&P Global’s soared. Both were expected to improve marginally in March final data today.

ISM’s Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, rising from 47.8 to 50.3, better than the 48.4 expected (breaking a 15-month streak below 50).

But, S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI disappointed, falling from its ‘flash’ print of 52.5 to 51.9 – also down from the final print of 52.2 in February (with prices .

Source: Bloomberg

However, a common theme from both surveys was that of soaring prices!!

S&P Global noted that higher oil and raw material costs, plus increased transportation rates, reportedly added to cost burdens at the end of the first quarter… and the impact of rising labor costs was mentioned as a factor pushing up selling prices at a number of manufacturers.

Employment remains in contraction for the sixth straight month and Prices Paid surged to its highest since July 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“The final reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI signaled a further encouraging improvement in business conditions in March, adding to signs that the US economy looks to have expanded at a solid pace again in the first quarter.

“A key development in recent months has been the broadening-out of the upturn from services to manufacturing, with reviving demand for goods driving the fastest increase in factory production since May 2022. Jobs growth has also picked up as firms boost capacity to meet demand. Rising capex spending has likewise buoyed orders for machinery and equipment, in a further sign of firms gaining confidence in the outlook.

But the ‘improvement’ comes at a cost:

“The upturn is, however, being accompanied by some strengthening of pricing power. Average selling prices charged by producers rose at the fastest rate for 11 months in March as factories passed higher costs on to customers, with the rate of inflation running well above the average recorded prior to the pandemic.

Most notable was an especially steep rise in prices charged for consumer goods, which rose at a pace not seen for 16 months, underscoring the likely bumpy path in bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.”

So slower growth and much faster inflation – that does not sound like a recipe for rate-cuts… in fact quite the opposite.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/01/2024 – 10:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/SivB36q Tyler Durden