Month: May 2024

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

The California Assembly’s Appropriations Committee approved a bill May 1 which would require the state to issue an apology for its role in perpetuating harm related to slavery.

Assembly Bill 3089, introduced by Assemblyman Reginald Jones-Sawyer, would declare California recognizes and accepts responsibility for “atrocities” it and its representatives committed as well as any entities under its control who promoted, facilitated, enforced, and permitted the institution of chattel slavery.

The bill would also require the Legislature to draft and have signed by officials a document of recognition and apology to be stored in the state archives for the public to review at will, in addition to creating a memorial plaque to be hung in the Capitol.

The author celebrated the bill’s progress after the hearing.

“California moves one step closer to having a formal apology for its role in allowing Jim Crow racists laws as a part of its history of oppression towards the African American community,” Mr. Jones-Sawyer told the Epoch Times by email.

“I am grateful to the members of the appropriations committee for their due diligence and recognition of the importance of AB 3089.”

He said the measure is crucial to overcome the state’s past faults.

“AB 3089 represents the first effort to heal and accept the wrongs of our state’s past,” Mr. Jones-Sawyer said.

“Knowing that laws aimed at suppressing the economic, academic, civil, and human rights of a specific community were purposeful, and effective, we can now work to ensure equitable measurers are put forth to quash the effects of those former laws.”

He suggested the impact of discriminatory behavior is negatively affecting millions of Californians.

“Since its inception, every branch of California Government has knowingly and intentionally perpetuated the harms of human enslavement and its lasting effects on Black Californians,” Mr. Jones-Sawyer said in the bill’s Legislative analyses.

“Despite small moments of positive confrontation of these harms, these infrequent moments are vastly overshadowed by the repeated negative impact of state-sanctioned violence.”

Countering critics who point to California having never been a slave state, the author said the state was free in name only.

“Despite having joined the Union as a free state, California has contradicted its pledge time after time,” Mr. Jones-Sawyer said.

“If we are to maintain the positive momentum toward truth and reconciliation, this apology and the small plaque shows the world that we honor our commitment to rectifying past wrongs.”

Included in the official apology would be a recognition that racial prejudice, segregation, discrimination, and inequitable access to state and federal funding caused African Americans to be harmed and a promise such would never happen again.

Yusef Miller speaks in support of Assembly Bill 3089 at the Assembly’s Appropriations Committee on May 1, 2024. (Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times)

The apology is the first of a series of recommendations from the state’s Task Force to Study and Develop Reparation Proposals for African Americans, established in 2020 by the passage of Assembly Bill 3121.

After meeting for more than two years, the task force published more than 100 recommendations last year in a document containing more than 1,000 pages of historical research and included suggestions for cash payments for five types of discrimination—ultimately totaling more than $1 million per eligible person if approved by the Legislature.

While recommending formal apologies, the task force noted that such alone is inadequate, though a necessary first step.

Californians are wary of supporting cash payments, according to a Berkeley Intergovernmental Studies poll from late last year that showed most respondents disapproved. Additionally, others have expressed concern that the state’s estimated $73 billion budget deficit leaves little room for providing cash reparations.

One supporter in attendance at the appropriations hearing agreed a formal apology is needed and said that more must be done.

“This is an important first step, one of many, and we need many steps and pushing from many pressure points,” Yusef Miller, representing Clean Earth for Kids and the North County Equity and Justice Coalition, told The Epoch Times after the hearing. “To get everyone on board, it’s going to take education, and once everyone understands what it really looks like, their opposition may go away and fizzle out.”

He said the bill is vital to correcting historical wrongs while educating the public about what he described as the long-lasting impacts of slavery.

“AB 3089 is extremely important because the legacy of harm to people of African descent in California has gone undereducated and uninformed, and people just don’t know and don’t realize the continuous impact on the African American community,” Mr. Miller said.

“That impact has lasted from the 1850s all the way up until 2024.”

One organization in support of the bill said California can lead the nation if it chooses to abide by the task force’s recommendations.

“California has an opportunity to be the first State in the nation to finally formally recognize and acknowledge the atrocities caused by its role in U.S. chattel slavery and its vestiges,” the Alliance for Reparations, Reconciliation, and Truth said in Legislative analyses.

“[This is] an opportunity to affirm the State of California’s role in protecting the descendants of enslaved people as well as the civil, political, and socio-cultural rights of Black Californians, particularly during a time when the rights of minority and traditionally underrepresented groups are being targeted, attacked, and devalued.”

Another group in support said the safety and dignity of current and future generations can be protected by the bill.

“The passage of AB 3089 will not only provide a formal acknowledgment and apology for California’s historical involvement in forced human enslavement but will also affirm the state’s commitment to remediation and non-repetition of such atrocities,” the California Black Chamber of Commerce said in Legislative analyses. “The provision for permanent public access to the apology in the California State Capitol complex and the California State Archives ensures that this acknowledgment is preserved for future generations.”

No groups or individuals were listed in committee analyses in opposition, and no opposing testimony was provided at hearings.

After clearing the 15-member appropriations meeting, the measure will next be considered by the Assembly in the coming weeks.

The Biden administration has just leveled a somewhat bizarre chemical weapons accusation against Russia, coming a day after the US Treasury came out with nearly 300 new anti-Moscow sanctions. Those previously reported sanctions targeted Russia’s defense-industrial sector, including its alleged chemical weapons program (Russia denies having one).

“The U.S. State Department accused Russia Wednesday of having used chemical weapons against Ukrainian soldiers in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention,” AFP reports.

This was enough to generate ominous sounding headlines implying ‘Putin is gassing people’ – or something along those lines. Yes, technically the chemicals identified would count as “chemical weapons” according to technical definitions in international treaties.

But the key caveat is contained in a State Department factsheet, that Russia is using “riot control agents [tear gas] as a method of warfare in Ukraine, also in violation of the CWC.”

Another choking agent, chloropicrin, was also mentioned by the US. Moscow forces are basically deploying riot control agents “as a method of warfare” in Ukraine, the US Department of State said.

“The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield,” the statement added. Al Jazeera explains of chloropicrin: 

Chloropicrin, a nearly colourless oily liquid which causes severe irritation to the eyes, skin and lungs, was used in large quantities during World War I, according to the US’s National Institute for Occupational Health and Safety.

While it continues to be used as an agricultural pesticide, its use in war is banned under the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).

So the ‘big’ chemical weapons accusation against Moscow is that it is using tear gas – or basically the same measures now actively being deployed against pro-Palestine protesters on college campuses. Russian forces have reportedly been using grenades loaded with CS and CN gasses… again, this appears to be the sum total of the allegation.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the charge of Russian forces using chemical weapons in Ukraine. “As always, such announcements are absolutely unfounded and are not supported by anything. Russia has been and remains committed to its obligations under international law in this area,” he told a press briefing.

The US claim generated some scary headlines on Thursday, including this from the New York Times:

Separately, Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov slammed the fresh accusations as “odious and unsubstantiated.”

As for the US, it has been caught deploying much worse in civilian areas of Iraq – with white phosphorus munitions and depleted uranium topping the list.

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Permian producers are not shutting in oil wells with associated natural gas despite the fact that the Texas regional gas price has been stuck at below-zero levels since early March.

Major pipeline operators in the Permian basin haven’t yet seen any effect of the negative gas prices at the Waha hub in West Texas on activity as producers are look to maximize oil realizations at West Texas Intermediate crude prices at above $80 per barrel.

But the U.S. natural gas benchmark, Henry Hub, has been depressed below $2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) since early February due to weak winter demand amid milder weather, record output at the end of 2023, and higher-than-average natural gas stocks. 

Natural gas prices at the Waha hub slumped to a negative value of -$2.00 per MMBtu in April as the recent rise in oil prices prompted producers to bring drilled but uncompleted wells online. The Waha hub prices remained below zero for most of March and April amid high production and not enough takeaway capacity.

The price at the Waha Hub rose by $1.25 in the latest reporting week, from -$1.18/MMBtu to $0.07/MMBtu on April 24, only the second day the price was above zero since April 1, per EIA data.

The negative Waha gas prices and the supply glut are creating a problem for Permian producers regarding how they should dispose of part of the excess natural gas output.

Takeaway capacity has been constrained in recent weeks due to some maintenance, but more pipelines are set to begin operations in the coming months to potentially alleviate the glut as demand for LNG exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast will continue rising for years to come.

For the time being, the Permian is holding natural gas production relatively steady or slightly lower than at the start of the year, but rigs haven’t been dropped in the most prolific U.S. oil basin, unlike in the giant shale gas basins such as Appalachia and the Haynesville in East Texas and Western Louisiana.

“Essentially, you’ve seen no effect from the weak natural gas prices,” Anthony Chovanec, Vice President, Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal at Enterprise Products, said on the pipeline giant’s earnings call this week.

“If you look at what drives the economics of the producers in the Permian, it’s not natural gas. And, you know, you’re — what we’ve seen in natural gas prices is not going to cause people to shut in or even throttle back oil-related natural gas at this point,” Chovanec told analysts.

“But if you go and look at rig counts in the Permian, since the first of the year, they’re as steady as they can be. Actually, the same can be said for the Eagle Ford. You see rig counts down in the Haynesville and you see them down somewhat in Appalachia, but not in your oil rig basins.”

In the oil rig basins, producers aren’t rushing to boost oil production at above-$80 WTI crude prices, partly due to the weak natural gas prices. But they aren’t scaling back production, either, as they are keen to continue pumping oil and the associated natural gas that goes with it.

Some oil and gas producers in Texas have significantly increased in recent weeks the number of requests to the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC) to allow flaring on some operations as low natural gas prices and a glut of supply present challenges to the drillers how to get rid of the unwanted gas. RRC, the oil and gas industry regulator of Texas, approved last week as many as 21 requests from producers to be exempt from rules banning or limiting flaring, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

Midstream infrastructure company MPLX expects additional takeaway capacity out of the Permian, apart from the Matterhorn pipeline expected to enter into service in the third quarter this year, MPLX’s top executives said on the earnings call this week.

“There’s going to be more takeaway out of the basin,” MPLX chief executive Michael Hennigan said.

LNG exports out of the Gulf Coast will be a major pull for natural gas produced in the Permian, MPLX’s senior vice president David Heppner added.

“You’ve got the pull coming from these LNG facilities down in the Gulf Coast, which are majority of them backstopped by 20-year take or pays, which is a nice long-term pull,” Heppner said, adding that “there is incremental capacity needed clearly with barrels out of the Permian to the Gulf Coast.”

Authored by Megan Redshaw, J.D. via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an alarming rise of an aggressive and highly fatal secondary fungal infection among those with active or recovered COVID-19.

Research suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the overuse of immunosuppressive COVID-19 treatments such as corticosteroids and antibiotics, and the global pandemic response made people more susceptible to coinfections such as COVID-19-associated mucormycosis (CAM).

Mucormycosis, also known as black fungus, is an opportunistic fungal infection that typically affects the sinuses, lungs, and brain. It is caused by a group of molds commonly found in the environment. Before COVID-19, these fungi rarely caused infection because of low virulence, but the second wave of COVID-19 brought tens of thousands of reported cases. Even the Omicron variant, which was generally attributed to mild COVID-19, has been linked to lethal mucormycosis infections in the United States and Asia.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there are several types of mucormycosis:

• Rhinocerebral mucormycosis is an infection of the sinuses that can spread to the brain and is most commonly diagnosed in people with diabetes or in those who have had a kidney transplant.
• Pulmonary mucormycosis is the most common type of mucormycosis, mainly affecting people with cancer or those who have had organ or stem cell transplants.
• Gastrointestinal mucormycosis affects the digestive tract and is more common among children and young adults.
• Cutaneous mucormycosis is the most common form of infection among those without weakened immune systems. It occurs when the fungi enter through a cut, scrape, or surgical incision in the skin.
• Disseminated mucormycosis is where the infection gets into the bloodstream and spreads to the brain and other organs. The mortality rate with this type of mucormycosis is 96 percent.

According to a 2022 paper published in Vaccines, mold spores that cause mucormycosis are found in soil, leaves, or decaying matter. These spores can be dispersed in dust particles and gain entry into the human body through the respiratory tract, skin, or a weakness in the mucosal barrier. Once inside the body, the fungal spores can germinate and multiply, leading to infections such as cutaneous necrotizing fasciitis and disseminated mucormycosis.

 The symptoms of mucormycosis vary depending on the patient, their underlying medical conditions, and the organs affected by the infection. Early symptoms may include nasal pain, vision loss, headache, fever, blackish nasal discharge, facial pain on one side, and mouth swelling. The infection primarily affects the nose, sinuses, lungs, eyes, and brain but can disseminate through the blood to other areas of the body.

According to a 2023 paper published in Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, mucormycosis strikes patients within 12 to 18 days after COVID-19 recovery, and nearly 80 percent require surgery. A delayed or untreated diagnosis can result in a mortality rate as high as 94 percent.

COVID-19-Associated Mucormycosis Is a ‘Worldwide Phenomena’

In a 2022 review published in The Lancet, researchers analyzed 80 cases of COVID-19-associated mucormycosis from 18 countries, including eight cases from the United States, and found mucormycosis infection can be a serious complication of severe COVID-19, especially for those with diabetes and hyperglycemia, or high blood sugar.

Additionally, the authors noted that systemic corticosteroid treatment can reduce mortality in people with severe COVID-19, but the treatment, combined with immunological and other clinical factors, can also predispose patients to secondary fungal diseases like mucormycosis. This particular infection is associated with high morbidity and mortality, even in those with mild COVID-19 cases. The same is true for COVID-19 patients who received intensive antibiotic treatment.

Of the 80 cases analyzed by researchers, 74 patients were hospitalized for COVID-19 after receiving a mucormycosis diagnosis. In six cases, patients had COVID-19 before hospitalization for mucormycosis-associated symptoms—four of whom were hospitalized for COVID-19 within one to three months before a mucormycosis diagnosis.

Researchers identified 59 patients with rhino-orbital cerebral disease, 20 with pulmonary disease, and one had gastrointestinal mucormycosis. With cerebral mucormycosis, the fungus initially invades the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses, presenting similarly to acute sinusitis. It can then lead to angioinvasion, where tumor cells get through blood vessel walls and cause blood clots. The infection rapidly spreads to orbital and brain sites and is associated with high morbidity and mortality.

Nearly 50 percent (39 patients) died. The median survival time from the day of the mucormycosis diagnosis was 106 days for rhino-orbital cerebral disease and only nine days for patients with pulmonary mucormycosis. Among survivors, 46 percent (19 patients) lost their vision.

The researchers noted several underlying health conditions among the patients with mucormycosis in addition to COVID-19, including uncontrolled or poorly controlled diabetes, hypertension or high blood pressure, chronic kidney disease, and cancer. Those with diabetes were more likely to have rhino-orbital mucormycosis and mild to moderate cases of COVID-19. Those without diabetes were more likely to have other manifestations of the infection and severe COVID-19. Researchers found that pulmonary mucormycosis almost exclusively occurred in the ICU setting.

The Lancet paper’s corresponding author, Dr. Martin Hoenigl, is an associate professor of translational mycology at the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Medical University of Graz, Austria, and the current president of the European Confederation of Medical Mycology.

“Our study outlines that COVID-19-associated mucormycosis, although more prevalent in parts of the world that have traditionally higher mucormycosis rates due to higher levels of environmental exposure (e.g., India, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, China), is a worldwide phenomenon,” Dr. Hoenigl told The Epoch Times in an email.

“Our study has been performed early during the COVID pandemic before the extent of the COVID-19 associated mucormycosis crisis in India was recognized/came into the public focus, and raises attention to this serious, often deadly complication that can be very difficult to diagnose and requires aggressive treatment for a chance of successful outcome,” he said.

Numerous countries observed a sudden increase in CAM cases in 2021 during the second wave of the pandemic. India, a “hot spot” for the deadly infection, typically diagnosed 50 cases of mucormycosis each year but had already observed 28,252 cases as of June 2021. The number of mucormycosis cases has been increasing since.

Deadly Fungal Infection More Common With COVID-19

Dr. Hoenigl told The Epoch Times that mucormycosis is more common with COVID-19 than other infectious diseases due to specific risk factors that emerged with the pandemic and its management, as well as specific immunological mechanisms that predispose patients with severe COVID-19 to developing the condition.

“In terms of clinical risk factors, the increased population of undiagnosed or uncontrolled diabetes (driven by reduction of routine healthcare services during the early COVID pandemic) was an important driver of COVID-19 associated mucormycosis, as was overuse of systemic corticosteroids for COVID-19 treatment that happened in some countries where steroids were available for purchase over the counter, and at the same time, there was a lack of availability of supplemental oxygen,” Dr. Hoenigl said.

“In terms of immunological mechanisms, conditions such as hyperglycemia, steroid overuse, and high levels of iron and ketone bodies, but also COVID-19 itself via the virus-induced endoplasmic reticulum stress cascade are upregulating the expression of glucose-regulated protein 78 (GRP78), which, besides acting as a cofactor in viral entry, binds to spore-coating CotH3 invasin on the fungal surface and favors invasion of nasal epithelial cells by mucorales, resulting in rhino-orbital cerebral mucormycosis,” he explained.

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is a large structure within a cell that performs many functions, including calcium storage, protein synthesis, and lipid metabolism. GRP78 plays a significant role in regulating the ER. It is often upregulated in patients with COVID-19, which predisposes people to getting mucormycosis.

GRP78 helps regulate the ER’s stress response, can form a complex with the spike protein and the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) to encourage entry and infection of SARS-CoV-2, and acts as a host receptor that allows molds that cause mucormycosis to enter cells and cause disease.

“There are other important immunological mechanisms as well that explain how severe COVID-19 can predispose patients to develop mucormycosis,” Dr. Hoenigl added.

Other Studies Identify Mucormycosis Risk Factors

In a 2021 review published in the Journal of Infection and Public Health, researchers found that hyperglycemia, impaired immunity, acidosis, raised ferritin—which is often indicative of higher iron levels, inflammation, or infection—glucocorticoid therapy, and COVID-19-specific factors were implicated in the pathogenesis of CAM.

In a 2022 study published in Cureus, researchers followed 62 patients with cerebral mucormycosis for up to 12 weeks to evaluate the risk factors, symptoms, and impact of various interventions on the disease outcome. All participants reported being symptomatic with flu-like illness during the two months preceding their diagnosis, with 58 of the 62 subjects testing positive for COVID-19 and 54 of the 58 patients receiving treatment.

“COVID-19 patients are more susceptible to opportunistic fungal infections due to the immune dysregulation caused by iatrogenic immunosuppression (via corticosteroids or undefined antibiotic treatment), uncontrolled diabetes mellitus, use of invasive or noninvasive ventilation, and other pre-existing conditions,” the paper’s authors wrote.

The researchers found that COVID-19 and diabetes mellitus were significant risk factors for developing mucormycosis. Common signs and symptoms of mucormycosis often appeared within a few weeks of COVID-19, although neurological symptoms were either absent or appeared later. The most common initial symptoms included ptosis—a drooping eyelid—or severe headache.

The median time between COVID-19 infection and the first noticeable symptom of mucormycosis was 16 days. The mean time between the first symptom of mucormycosis and the first neurological symptom was 19 days. The most common initial neurological symptom was hemiparesis—a weakness or inability to move one side of the body.

The study found that 18 (29 percent) patients were symptomatic for mucormycosis even before the resolution of their COVID-19. At the end of 12 weeks, only 18 patients had completely recovered without any residual symptoms, while 19 had persistent symptoms.

Of the 62 subjects, 53 required surgical intervention, eight patients needed their eyes extracted, 21 patients died, 37 survived, and four were lost at follow-up. The higher-than-expected survival rate was attributed to the study occurring in a hospital facility with access to prompt antifungal treatments.

In a January review of 20 papers on mucormycosis and COVID-19, researchers discovered numerous fungal coinfections in COVID-19 patients, 0.3 percent of which were related to mucormycosis.

The researchers attributed CAM to hyperglycemia from previously existing diabetes or excessive use of steroids, increased ferritin levels due to the “inflammatory cascade” initiated by COVID-19, immunological and inflammatory phenomena that occur with SARS-CoV-2 infection, immunosuppression from steroid use or other therapies, germination of fungal spores due to reduced white cell counts in those with COVID-19, and hypoxia—or insufficient oxygen levels which promote growth of the fungus.

Researchers also found that fungal infections were greater in critically ill COVID-19 patients, those requiring mechanical ventilation, and those hospitalized for more than 50 days.

According to the paper, medical management of the disease includes antifungal treatments and surgical debridement of the associated lesions. This is challenging for COVID-19 patients because many are given immunosuppressive therapies, such as steroids, and withdrawing immunosuppressive medications used to treat COVID-19 is part of the treatment for mucormycosis. They further suggest using hyperbaric oxygen therapy for hypoxia and acidosis.

To prevent mucormycosis in those with COVID-19, researchers suggest taking a detailed medical history to assess risk factors, using a controlled steroid regimen, sterilizing water in humidifiers, halting excessive antibiotics, and controlling blood sugar.

President Biden chose a strange moment to lash out at allies and humiliate them, given his administration is busy trying to build international consensus against Russia as it continues the war in Ukraine, and on sensitive flashpoint issues like the Israel-Hamas conflict.

On Wednesday Biden called Japan and India ‘xenophobic’ during off-camera remarks at a campaign fundraiser in D.C. He included these longtime US allies in the controversial statement alongside Washington rivals and enemies China and Russia.

He said all of these countries are unwelcoming to migrants ultimately “because they are xenophobic.” Leaders in Japan and India are without doubt blistering with outrage.

“This election is about freedom, America and democracy. That’s why I badly need you. You know, one of the reasons why our economy is growing is because of you and many others. Why? Because we welcome immigrants,” the president began.

“The reason — look, think about it. Why is China stalling so badly economically? Why is Japan having trouble? Why is Russia? Why is India? Because they’re xenophobic.”

And he continued to pile on: “They don’t want immigrants. Immigrants are what makes us strong. Not a joke. That’s not hyperbole, because we have an influx of workers who want to be here and want to contribute,” he added.

The criticism of Japan comes at the very moment Tokyo and Washington are deepening their defense cooperation in regional waters, with an eye on countering Chinese influence and maritime expansion. Yet Biden just lumped Japan and China together in the devastating criticism.

But Japan seems to be doing just fine in comparison to the United States on a socio-economic level. Anyone who has traveled to Japan in the last number of years has likely witnessed the phenomenon of streets and cities that are so safe that 8-year old children can wonder freely and no one will give it a thought.

Pot, meet kettle…

Violence is exceedingly rare in Japan. The murder rate is so small that is barely registers.

Similarly, its crime rate has continued to plummet in recent years, leaving some police departments with little to do https://t.co/4X8h7UzYu9 pic.twitter.com/xKyhF463G8

— Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion) August 1, 2019

As for India, one very obvious reason they are not opening the flood gates of immigration (assuming there are even many foreigners actually seeking to enter and settle in the highly population dense south Asian country to begin with), is that they have a struggling economy and over 1.4 billion people to look after.

Recently, President Biden hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (in early summer) and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio – with the latter visiting the Oval just last month. Both were treated to state dinners, and of course Biden didn’t have the guts to tell these key leaders to their faces that their countries were ‘xenophobic’. 

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In an in-depth interview with TIME magazine, former President Donald Trump laid out his agenda for a second term should he retake the White House in 2025 following the election later this year.

The wide-ranging interview, held over two days at President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach, Florida, with a follow-up phone interview, was the cover story for the magazine titled “If He Wins.”

The interview covers all of the big issues in the 2024 election, ranging from border security and immigration to economic policy, abortion, and foreign affairs.

President Trump also touched on the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol breach and the related court cases, as well as the legal issues he faces.

Immigration, Border Policy

In a transcript of the interview with TIME’s national politics reporter Eric Cortellessa, President Trump said on day one of his second term he would take aggressive action over the illegal immigration crisis.

President Trump plans to initiate a vast deportation operation, citing unsustainable numbers of illegal immigrants, expressing a desire to replicate Dwight Eisenhower’s mid-20th century mass deportations.

President Trump said he plans to do this by using local law enforcement as well as the National Guard when necessary.

“When we talk military, generally speaking, I talk National Guard,” President Trump said, according to the transcript. “But if I thought things were getting out of control, I would have no problem using the military, per se. We have to have safety in our country. We have to have law and order in our country. And whichever gets us there, but I think the National Guard will do the job.”

Regarding housing illegal immigrants in detention facilities or even expanding the nation’s stock of detention facilities, he said it would likely not be necessary due to his policy of mass deportations but did not rule it out if needed.

If local police departments did not want to cooperate, President Trump said the best option to get them to comply would be to incentivize their cooperation.

“Well, there’s a possibility that some won’t want to participate, and they won’t partake in the riches, you know,” he said in the interview. “I want to give police immunity from prosecution because the liberal groups or the progressive groups … that … want to leave everybody in …[S]anctuary cities are failing all over the place, and I really believe that there’s a pent-up demand to end sanctuary cities by people that were in favor of sanctuary cities, because it’s just not working out for the country.”

He added he didn’t believe that his proposals were “bold” but rather “common sense” and that he would uphold any court decisions regarding his policies.

Economy

President Trump is advocating for significant tariffs, especially against China, to protect U.S. industries and jobs.

He said that he didn’t believe that additional tariffs would amount to another tax on Americans and that he didn’t believe it would lead to higher inflation, noting his belief that higher tariffs against China under his first administration were successful.

“So how did it cost us if we had such a good economy,” President Trump asked in response to a question about economists saying his tariff policy cost jobs and lost hundreds of billions. “Everybody admits it. If we didn’t do that, we would have no steel industry right now. They were dumping steel all over this country. And I put a 50% tariff on steel. It was gonna go higher. And the people that love me most are businesses, but in particular, the steel industry. They love me because I saved their industry.”

He said he believed that those tariffs did not and would not lead to businesses passing on higher costs to American consumers.

“I actually think that the country that is being taxed makes less,” President Trump said. “I think what happens is you build. What happens to get out of the whole situation is you end up building, instead of having your product brought in from China, because of that additional cost, you end up making the product in the United States.”

President Trump said that some countries are very tough on the United States when it comes to tariffs.

“[China] charges us 100%,” President Trump said. “But they charge us much more than that. India charges us more than that. Brazil charges us what—Brazil’s a very big, very big tariff country. I ask people, who are the worst to deal with? I’m not going to give that to you because I don’t want to insult the countries because I actually get along with them. But you’d be surprised. The E.U. is very tough with us.”

Foreign Policy

President Trump said that he would not rule out placing conditions on aid to Israel, but aimed to have the Israel-Hamas conflict resolved quickly.

“I think that Israel has done one thing very badly: public relations,” President Trump said. “I don’t think that the Israel Defense Fund or any other group should be sending out pictures every night of buildings falling down and being bombed with possibly people in those buildings every single night, which is what they do.”

He said his record and support of Israel was clear and that his record on being tough with Iran was clear, despite noting that he had a “bad experience” dealing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“Look, there’s been no president that’s done what I’ve done for Israel. When you look at all of the things that I’ve done, and it starts with the Iran nuclear deal. You know, Bibi Netanyahu begged Obama not to do that deal. I ended that deal.”

He also brought up Iran in relation to its role in funding Hamas, the terrorist group that attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

“During my term, there were stories that Iran didn’t have the money to give to any, there was very little terrorism,” President Trump explained. “But we had no terror … and we got rid of ISIS 100%. Now they’re starting to come back.”

The former president also said that Mr. Netanyahu “rightfully has been criticized for what took place on October 7.”

President Trump said that the United States would support Israel militarily if Iran and Israel were to go to war, although he suggested that the recent attack by Iran on Israel was a “ceremonial attack,” given that it was widely known about beforehand.

He added, “I gave them [Israel] Golan Heights,” and that he was responsible for having the U.S. Embassy moved to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv and recognized the former as Israel’s capital.

On NATO, President Trump criticized European countries for insufficient defense spending and said NATO was fine as long as European countries paid their fair share, but he still did not believe NATO would come to the aid of the United States if necessary and as required by the treaty.

Jan. 6, Election Integrity

President Trump criticized the justice system as biased and discussed potential pardons for individuals allegedly involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol breach.

“It’s a two-tier system,” President Trump said. “Because when I look at Portland, when I look at Minneapolis, where they took over police precincts and everything else, and went after federal buildings, when I look at other situations that were violent, and where people were killed, nothing happened to them. Nothing happened to them. I think it’s a two-tier system of justice. I think it’s a very, very sad thing. And whether you like it or not, nobody died other than Ashli [Babbitt].”

President Trump said that he “tried to stop the attack” and that his rhetoric was peaceful and patriotic, placing blame on then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser, a Democrat, for turning down his offer of “10,000 soldiers” during the “very dramatic and horrible period” on Jan. 6 after the Capitol was breached.

Concerning political violence after this November’s election, President Trump said it was not something he was worried about happening.

“I think we’re gonna have a big victory,” President Trump added. “And I think there will be no violence.”

In response to his legal woes, as he has said in press conferences after his court appearances in New York City the past few weeks, he said that the prosecutions against him are unfair and driven by a corrupt legal system on behalf of President Biden.

To those prosecuting him, he did not say he would go after them using the Department of Justice if re-elected, rather he said, “We are going to have great retribution through success. We’re going to make our country successful again. Our retribution is going to be through success of our country.”

When asked about appointing a special prosecutor to investigate President Biden if he were to be re-elected, he said it would depend on what the U.S. Supreme Court says about presidential immunity in his own case, which is currently before the court.

“Look, a president should have immunity,” President Trump said. “That includes Biden. If they’ve ruled that they don’t have immunity, Biden, probably nothing to do with me, he would be prosecuted for 20 different acts, because he’s created such.”

As far as going after his political opponents, he said that’s currently what’s happening with him.

Abortion

Regarding potential federal legislation on abortion, President Trump expressed confidence that such measures would not garner the required 60 votes in the Senate. He stressed that the issue should be left to states to determine, as evidenced by recent legislative actions in conservative-leaning states like Ohio and Kansas.

When asked about the Life at Conception Act and enforcement of the Comstock Act, President Trump deferred to states’ prerogatives, refraining from committing to specific positions. He hinted at forthcoming statements on related matters.

President Trump declined to offer a personal opinion on women’s access to abortion pills and the enforcement of laws prohibiting their mailing, indicating an intention to address these issues soon.

Regarding potential state-level penalties for obtaining abortions after bans, President Trump reiterated his stance that states should decide such matters, emphasizing the diversity of approaches among states.

When queried about Florida’s upcoming abortion referendum, President Trump refrained from disclosing his voting intentions, reiterating his belief in the importance of states making their own determinations on such matters.

He emphasized a focus on policies that help women and families, referencing the acceptance of his stance on in vitro fertilization by Republicans and recent state legislation affirming it.

“I’ll be doing it over the next week or two,” he said. “But I don’t think it will be shocking, frankly. But I’ll be doing it over the next week or two. We’re for helping women, Eric. I am for helping women.”

Other Details

President Trump discussed his past decision to invoke a minimum ten-year sentence for desecrating monuments, which he felt effectively deterred such actions. President Trump stated he would use the National Guard rather than the military to address protests if necessary, such as Black Lives Matter protests in 2020.

President Trump also acknowledged a perceived anti-white bias in the United States, critiquing the Biden administration for its policies and expressing concern over discrimination against various groups, including white people and Catholics.

He was non-committal about whether the United States should defend Taiwan, preferring not to disclose his stance to maintain negotiation leverage.

President Trump discussed the strategic deployment of U.S. troops overseas, suggesting adjustments might be necessary but emphasizing the ability to manage troop deployments effectively. He criticized South Korea for renegotiating a financial agreement that reduced their payment to the United States for military protection.

The former president also championed democracy over dictatorship, highlighting freedom as a key advantage. However, he expressed concerns about the current state of U.S. democracy, citing the weaponization of federal agencies against political figures.

He refuted claims that he wanted to terminate parts of the Constitution or become a dictator; instead, he accused Democrats of violating constitutional principles through judicial and administrative actions.

He noted when he said he would only be a dictator “on day one” while in an interview with Sean Hannity, that it was clearly a joke and that most people understood it as such.

“That was said sarcastically. That was meant as a joke. Everybody knows that.”

Regarding the pandemic, President Trump reflected on Operation Warp Speed and praised his administration’s rapid development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics.

“You know, you have strong opinions both ways on the vaccines,” President Trump said. “It’s interesting. The Democrats love the vaccine. The Democrats. Only reason I don’t take credit for it. The Republicans, in many cases, don’t, although many of them got it, I can tell you. It’s very interesting.”

He was also skeptical about the efficacy of permanent pandemic preparedness offices, suggesting they were politically motivated and financially wasteful.

For months, relations between Turkey and Israel have been on the brink of breaking point. Already there has been the recalling of ambassadors, inflammatory rhetoric exchanged between leaders, and then things got more serious when Turkey a month ago moved to restrict 54 products from being exported to Israel until a Gaza ceasefire can be reached.

But Turkey’s government on Thursday has taken the next big step, halting all exports and imports to and from Israel, according to Bloomberg which cited Turkish government officials. It has begun effective today, but Ankara has yet to officially announce the dramatic move.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz has confirmed that the breaking headlines are accurate. He said that Ankara has already begun to block Israeli imports and exports at Turkish ports.

Katz has ordered the foreign ministry to immediately pursue alternatives for trade which focus on “local production and imports from other countries.”

Bilateral trade volume between the two countries, which prior to Oct.7 were enjoying warmer relations, had stood at $5.4 billion last year.

• Turkey sells $5B-$7B of exports to Israel every year.
• Israel sells $2B-$3B of exports to Turkey every year.

But President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been unrelenting in his attacks on Israel and directed against Netanyahu personally. 

In March, he went so far as to suggest the Israeli prime minster should be assassinated for overseeing war crimes in Gaza and against Muslims.

 In a prior election rally the Turkish president vowed to “send [Netanyahu] to Allah to take care of him, make him miserable and curse him.”

This week Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced Turkey will join South Africa’s case against Israel before the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC).

So it appears at this point Turkey is waging both full-scale diplomatic and economic war on Israel. This is unprecedented for a NATO member, which also happens to have the second largest military within the Western military alliance, and is sure to put Western officials in an awkward spot.

Via The Cradle

Arrests of Saudi citizens over social media posts related to ‘Israeli genocide’ in Gaza have markedly increased in recent months, as Riyadh is reportedly concerned that “Iran and Islamist groups could exploit the conflict to incite a wave of uprisings,” according to people familiar with the matter who spoke with Bloomberg.

Recent arrests include “an executive with a company involved in the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation plan,” who reportedly expressed views on Gaza deemed “incendiary,” an unnamed media figure who said “Israel should never be forgiven,” and a citizen who called for the boycott of US fast food chains in the kingdom.

According to one of Bloomberg’s sources, over the past six months, there has been a “significant increase” in the number of prisoners entering a maximum-security prison south of Riyadh. The New York-based publication says this account was corroborated by diplomats in the Saudi capital and human rights organizations who have tracked a “spike in social media-related arrests” since 7 October.

“The Saudi arrests for Gaza-related posts indicate Prince [Mohammed bin Salman’s] regime will take a hard line against citizens not toeing the line when it comes to normalizing ties with Israel,” Bloomberg reports.

In a visit to the Gulf kingdom on Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that intensive work has recently been done toward a Saudi–Israel normalization deal, which he said is “potentially very close to completion.”

Nevertheless, on Wednesday, the Guardian reported that Riyadh has devised a “more modest” defense pact with Washington as authorities prepare to move past Israeli normalization over Tel Aviv’s intransigence regarding the formation of an independent Palestinian state and their determination to assault Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah.

The British daily described this “Plan B” as a joint US–Saudi effort to “contain Iranian expansionism and [as part of] Washington’s ‘great-power competition,’ particularly with China.”

Moreover, Israeli media on Thursday cited a source in the Saudi royal family as saying that the kingdom sent a message to Tel Aviv stating that any military operation in Rafah “would be a big mistake and would push normalization between the two parties away.”

“Riyadh will appear as a traitorous country in that case,” the Israeli report adds, as Saudi leaders reportedly believe “Saudi Arabia will not be able to normalize relations with Israel if there is no Palestinian state.”

Barry McCarthy, CEO of Peloton Interactive, is stepping down after the company’s stock plummeted 92% since he took over in a bid to revitalize the connected fitness company known for slapping iPads on stationary bikes and charging high markups. 

In February 2022, McCarthy—a former Spotify and Netflix executive—took over from co-founder John Foley. He attempted to turn around the company, which had experienced thousands of layoffs, management shake-ups, and outsourcing business as the Covid pop in demand faded. 

However, those efforts failed when Peloton announced a new restructuring program on Thursday. The struggling company plans to cut 15% of staff, or about 400 workers, and reduce its retail footprint to save $200 million by the end of 2025. 

“This restructuring will position Peloton for sustained, positive free cash flow, while enabling the company to continue to invest in software, hardware and content innovation, improvements to its member support experience, and optimizations to marketing efforts to scale the business. Upon full implementation, the company expects the plan to result in reduced annual run-rate expenses by more than $200 million by the end of its 2025 fiscal year,” the company wrote in a press release. 

A series of product recalls over safety issues only added to problems for McCarthy as lower sales and profits continued sliding. The share price has plunged 92% during the CEO’s tenure.

Besides a new restructuring program, the company also reported it lost $167.3 million, or 45 cents per share, for the third quarter. That’s better than the $275.9 million, or 79 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue totaled $717.7 million, below the average Wall Street estimate of $719.2 million tracked by Bloomberg. 

Here’s a snapshot of third-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Revenue $717.7 million, estimate $719.2 million

• Connected fitness revenue $279.9 million, estimate $288.2 million

• Subscription revenue $437.8 million, estimate $429.7 million

• Connected fitness subscribers 3.06 million, estimate 3.08 million

• Paid digital subscribers 674,000, estimate 742,266

• Adjusted Ebitda $5.8 million, estimate loss $25 million

• Loss per share 45c

• Cash flow from operations $11.6 million vs. negative $40.9 million y/y, estimate negative $29.6 million

Peloton also lowered its full-year revenue guidance by $25 million to a range of $2.675 billion to $2.7 billion, a dip from last year’s $2.8 billion.

Here’s a snapshot of the full-year outlook (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Sees revenue $2.68 billion to $2.70 billion, saw $2.68 billion to $2.75 billion, estimate $2.71 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted Ebitda loss $5.0 million to $20.0 million, saw loss $25 million to loss $75 million, estimate loss $62.9 million

• Sees connected fitness subscribers 2.96 million to 2.98 million, saw 2.99 million to 3.01 million, estimate 3.04 million

Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence, Geetha Ranganathan

•  The headcount cuts will aid free cash flow “yet the core issues remain, namely the weakness in demand and uncertainty over subscription growth, with 44,000 subscriber losses in 3Q”

JPMorgan, Doug Anmuth

• Says he’s encouraged by the company returning to positive free cash flow, and reporting lower operating expenses and positive adjusted Ebitda 

• In addition, “the cost reductions announced today should better align the cost profile to PTON’s current revenue trends & help make debt refinancing increasingly likely, which should help the equity story”

• Rates overweight with PT $8

BMO Capital Markets, Simeon Siege

• “From our outsider’s viewpoint, we continue to believe growth is behind us and focusing on bear-hugging brand loyalists/walking away from expensive growth hopes can improve FCF/Ebitda (seemingly happening)”

• If this happens with new management, shares look undervalued, but if growth remains new management’s priority, “we worry about sustained FCF/looming debt questions.”

• Rates market perform with PT $7.50

Peloton’s recovery depends on another Covid lockdown by the government that shuts down businesses and forces everyone into their homes for months. 

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Rising volatility in USD/JPY will make the yen carry trade less attractive. Dollar-yen is now more correlated with US 2-year yields compared to the 10 year, meaning FX volatility is likely to keep rising the closer the Federal Reserve gets to making its first change in rates.

It’s getting precarious for yen carry traders. Twice in recent days has Japan been suspected of intervening to strengthen the yen, with the latest occurring not long after Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where the FOMC pushed back against further rate hikes and tapered quantitative tightening more than expected.

The carry trade depends on rate differentials. Traders borrow the yen, swap it for dollars, i.e. buy USD/JPY, then use the proceeds to buy a US asset, such as T-bills or Treasuries. But that leaves them long USD/JPY and therefore exposed to falls. A big enough move in spot could wipe out the profit from the US versus Japanese rate spread.

That’s why the volatility of the currency matters to carry traders. If it is too high, then the trade becomes too risky. Which is one of the reasons, as Paul Dobson mentions, that the MOF likely prefers to intervene when market liquidity is low.

Adjusting the US-Japan real rate differential for USD/JPY volatility shows the measure is still high, but it is beginning to fall. The more vol rises, the more it will keep falling (other things equal).

Aside from the intentional introduction of vol premium from intervention, USD/JPY volatility is likely to pick up more the closer the Fed gets to making its next interest-rate move – which is more likely to be a cut if they shift rates this year.

The reason why is that USD/JPY is now more correlated to US 2-year yields than 10-year yields. Since the Fed started hiking in 2022, and the yield curve kept inverting with the 10-year UST’s yield falling versus the 2-year, the latter’s yield has been more correlated to USD/JPY.

Shorter-term yields are likely to get more volatile, which will feed into FX volatility and make the yen-dollar carry trade less attractive.

Still, carry is a moreish drug, and it’s unlikely to be enough to completely derail the trade. The endgame’s not likely to come until the Fed cuts rates – given the US Treasury’s swelling interest bill and the impact on market liquidity, the likelihood they do is increasing, despite rising inflation.