Replace Biden With Gavin Newsom? Polls Show Democrats Would Still Lose

Remember when it was “conspiracy theory” to question Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities? After Joe Biden’s dismal debate performance in Atlanta this week, the media-sphere is swirling with conjecture over a potential replacement for the doddering candidate.  The Biden team continues to insist that he won’t drop out of the race by the time the Democratic National Convention launches in Chicago this August.  That doesn’t mean the DNC won’t consider picking another candidate to run, though.

Convention rules are not legal requirements, they are simply rules dictated by the DNC and by tradition.  Delegates that already voted for Biden are supposed to continue their support, but there are avenues by which they can change their minds and trigger an open nomination process on the convention floor.  It’s telling that far-left media outlets like Time Magazine and Politico are already war-gaming the possibility of Biden stepping down; that’s how poorly received his debate performance was.

Following Thursday’s debate Johanna Maska, a Democratic consultant and former Barack Obama aide, posted a video on X urging her party to change its 2024 presidential candidate. She said: “We cannot do this, Democrats. Joe Biden can’t put a sentence together. We have to change our candidate, and we have so many good candidates who are sitting on the sidelines.”

While some (like Maska) don’t like the idea, one name that is continually mentioned in this discourse is California Governor Gavin Newsom.  Many Democrats and some Republicans believe he would be the primary alternative if Biden is somehow removed from the running.  Their suspicions have merit – Last year Newsom was given ample attention by the establishment media and he did act as if he was running for president.     

Newsom’s capacity for authoritarianism was made clear during his strict pandemic lockdowns, as was his hypocrisy when he was caught attending lavish parties while millions of other Californians were ordered to stay home and away from friends and family.  

His one and only talent seems to be a capacity for twisting statistics to fit his false narratives; he has consistently misrepresented California’s increasing economic distress as “success” and downplayed growing homelessness and crime.  His advantage is that he’s able to do this with a completely straight face, and for those unfamiliar with such statistics and how they can be manipulated, Newsom appears knowledgeable and formidable. 

Beyond that, he’s not very impressive as a candidate and the polls show this.

A March Rasmussen Reports survey of 912 likely voters found that former President Trump would lead by 17 points (51 percent to 34) if Newsom were the 2024 Democratic nominee.

In February 2024, an Emerson College Polling survey of 1,225 showed that Trump would win in a hypothetical White House race against Newsom by 10 points (46 percent to 36).

A November 2023 Fox News poll of 1,001 registered voters found that Trump would win an election against Newsom by four points (49 percent to 45).

Other candidates fare even worse.  Trump crushes Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (also a potential alternative to Biden) by 12 points in Emerson polls.  

Kamala Harris loses by 6.6 points in Real Clear Politics polling.  Meanwhile, former first lady Michelle Obama also trailed behind Trump in a hypothetical matchup (50 to 43 percent) according to Rasmussen.

Bottom line?  The Democrats might want to replace Biden, but they don’t have anyone that will win according to the current data.  A switch may occur simply as a way to avoid any irreparable disgrace to the party going into November, but it’s important to remember that Biden is simply a foil, a mouthpiece for a political ideology of socialist extremism that the majority of Americans now find dangerous and ugly.  Every candidate the Democrats put forward will espouse the same exact rhetoric and promote the same exact policies.