Dollar Surges As Selling-Panic Spreads Across All Assets

‘Good’ news from TSMC trumped yesterday’s ASML bad news and a solid Philly Fed print helped juice stocks early but under the hood of the Philly Fed data was soaring inflation expectations, which along with general derisking sent stocks lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were the day’s biggest loser – with a major swing intraday as they tried to ignite a squeeze at the open (from +1% to -2% intraday). The rest of the majors were all red. A late day rally put some lipstick on the pig but it wasn’t pretty…

Bear in mind that – thanks to that late-day pump – we missed a historical event today in the S&P 500 – going back to the start of 1928, the SPX has never followed an all-time high with two consecutive losses of 1% or more.

Goldman’s trading desk notes that volumes continue to be elevated (tracking +14% vs the trailing 20 days). Our floor is skewed +2% better to buy with HFs driving most of that.

• HFs are buying consumer discretionary and industrials vs selling tech for the 2nd day in a row.

• LOs also better to buy but activity from the group feels quieter than yesterday. LOs selling tech + Hcare vs buying fins.

‘Size’, ‘Momentum’, and ‘Quality’ were clubbed like a baby seal:

• The ~6% drop in the Size factor (GSP1SIZE Index) is biggest since May 2020 (small outperforming big)

• The 5.7% drop in Barra Momentum (GSP1MOMO Index) is is largest since Feb 2023 and the biggest drop since the factor began its ascent in Jan 2024.

• The 4% drop in Barra Quality (GSP1QUAL index) is nearly as extreme as December 2023, and the uptrend since 2021 appears broken.

Value dominating Growth (though both were sold today)…

Source: Bloomberg

Equal-weight S&P continues to play catch up to cap-weight…

Source: Bloomberg

MAG7 stocks tumbled (once again) to their lowest in a month…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks suffered their second straight day of sizable losses as the Small-Cap squeeze ran out of ammo…

Source: Bloomberg

While equity vol (VIX) has angrily awoken from its slumber, bond vol (MOVE) has not… yet…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were dumped alongside stocks today with the whole curve up 3-4bps, back higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold joined the selling party today, dropping back below $2450…

Source: Bloomberg

Choppy day for crude prices but WTI ended lower, struggling to hold $83.50…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite more ETF inflows, bitcoin suffered some more pain today unable to hold $65000 – but again, significantly less ‘beta’ to the general plunge in tech…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as everything else was sold, the dollar surged higher – unwinding all of the week’s losses…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Biden seeing more red today as his odds of getting the Democratic Party nomination collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Kamala for the win, “unburdened by what has been..”