WTI Hovers Above 2-Month Lows After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

WTI Hovers Above 2-Month Lows After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Draws

Oil prices declined for the third straight day as general risk-off sentiment combined with traders anxiety over Chinese demand to pull WTI down near two-month lows.

“Questionable data coming out of China is the main driver in the overall retraction” for oil, Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy, told MarketWatch.

China’s “petroleum demands may not be as robust as we thought just a few weeks ago.”

Meanwhile, U.S. summer travel demands remain a “bright spot, but are not enough to support the entire market as political risks due to escalating tensions in the Mideast are also easing,” said Cunningham.

API

  • Crude -4.495mm (-3.9mm exp)

  • Cushing -929k

  • Gasoline -1.917mm (-1.6mm exp)

  • Distillates -322k

API reports that crude inventories tumbled for the 5th straight week. All cohorts saw drawdowns last week…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI traded modestly higher on the API report, well off the day’s lows (which tested two-month lows)…

Traders are also looking to an OPEC+ meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee via videoconference, expected Thursday. The panel conducts a review of the oil markets every two months and has the authority to call for a full OPEC+ meeting if it decides one is needed.

“No changes to output policy are expected,” said Lukman Otunuga, manager for market analysis at FXTM, so the focus will be on the Federal Reserve decision Wednesday and monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday.

“These key risk events may provide insight into when U.S. [interest] rates will be cut this year, influencing oil as a result,” as lower rates could stimulate economic growth, supporting oil demand, said Otunuga. Lower rates may result in a weaker dollar, boosting oil, which is priced in dollars, he said.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 16:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/AXj9bH2 Tyler Durden

Acting Secret-Service Chief Played Key Role In Limiting Resources For Trump

Acting Secret-Service Chief Played Key Role In Limiting Resources For Trump

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe was directly involved in denying additional security resources and personnel, including counter snipers, to former President Trump’s rallies and events – despite repeated requests by the agents assigned to Trump’s detail in the two years leading up to his July 13 attempted assassination, according to several sources familiar with the decision-making.

Rowe succeeded former Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, who resigned last week after bipartisan calls following her widely panned testimony before the House Oversight Committee. But both Rowe and Cheatle were directly involved in decisions denying requests for more magnetometers, additional agents, and other resources to help screen rallygoers at large, outdoor Trump campaign gatherings.

It was Rowe’s decision alone to deny counter sniper teams to any Trump event outside of driving distance from D.C., these sources asserted.

Rowe and FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate are set to appear Tuesday before a joint hearing of the Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security and Government Affairs committees.

Senators on both sides of the aisle have vowed to press for answers on the assassination attempt of former President Trump that took the life of rally-goer Corey Comperatore and wounded two others. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, who chairs the Homeland Security panel, said he plans to grill Rowe and Abbate on the “litany of gaps and failures.”

There are monumental, critical questions that so far the leadership in these two agencies have failed to answer [for, and] even to begin to respond to,” Blumenthal said.

Sen. Ron Johnson, a senior member of the Homeland Security committee, told RCP he was initially impressed by Rowe’s willingness to answer senators’ questions late last week but pledged to question him closely about the denying of resources to protect Trump.

“I will also hold him fully accountable for being 100% transparent and honest in cooperating with our investigation and oversight,” Johnson said Thursday.

Johnson and other members of the committee are expected to focus on Rowe’s role in the Secret Service’s repeated denials of extra security requested by agents assigned to Trump’s protective detail and about decisions regarding the number of placement of snipers assigned to some of Trump’s events.

Assigning counter snipers based on the ability to drive to an event may sound far-fetched, but knowledgeable sources explained that there’s a limited number of these highly trained Uniform Division officers. It’s easier for counter sniper teams to carry their guns and gear in a van they can all use to transport the teams to the site for advance work for the event and then use the same vehicles, referred to by the Secret Service as “push vehicles,” to return to D.C.

The alternative is for counter sniper teams to board commercial flights or Amtrak (if the event is in the Northeast corridor) with all their gear, find a rental vehicle once on the ground, and then do it all in reverse on the way home. It’s all possible under the “needs of the Service,” one source contends, but in reality, it’s much easier and far more cost-effective for counter snipers to drive to and from a site.

They can carry their guns and gear on airplanes – there’s an efficient process for that – but it’s going to be much easier, because they have all their gear with them, to drive rather than fly because then they have a push vehicle to take the whole team to and from a hotel to the site each day,” a source in the Secret Service Community told RCP. “They would always rather drive than fly.”

The Secret Service has not responded to several questions from RCP about decisions to deny or limit security resources and personnel, including counter snipers, to Trump’s events.

At first, the Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania had no Secret Service sniper teams assigned to it, but at the last minute, agency officials reversed course and decided to add two snipers to the outdoor event. It’s still unclear whether there were just two counter snipers or two two-man teams for a total of four individuals. (Two-man teams usually include one spotter and one sniper.)

So far, there has been no explanation as to why agency officials made the late counter sniper assignments to the Butler event, though it could be in response to the increased threat level Trump has faced in recent weeks. The Secret Service has said the agency increased security for Trump for an unknown time period before the Butler rally in response to an Iranian plot against the former president.

As RCP previously reported, the late decision to add the two counter snipers cut short the time the team had to conduct a detailed on-site survey in advance of the Butler rally. Such a survey would usually take two to three days to complete, but the counter snipers had only one day to complete that critical advance work.

Sources familiar with counter sniper advance work also said an outdoor forum such as the Farm Show site in Butler should require at least three two-man counter sniper teams.

Instead, the Secret Service sent two counter snipers and then relied on a local law enforcement counter sniper team to man the American Glass Research, or AGR, building, placing that structure outside the official Secret Service perimeter.

The decision to rely on local law enforcement to man the AGR building has come under scrutiny in the weeks after the shooting – especially as new details have emerged about local law enforcement’s tracking of gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks more than an hour and a half before he opened fire and its communications breakdown with the Secret Service.

Local law enforcement snipers and their superior officers have said that they tried to keep the Secret Service informed about their concerns about Crooks, but their communications were siloed from the agency, even though they said they notified the site’s Secret Service command center of Crooks’ suspicious activity.

The Secret Service command center is supposed to be manned with both senior Secret Service agents and local law enforcement bosses to facilitate coordination and “interoperability,” as Cheatle testified during last week’s congressional hearing.

But a breakdown in communication occurred, and the Secret Service was tracking several suspicious persons that day and apparently never deemed Crooks a threat until he was crawling on top of the AGR roof with a rifle. The Secret Service counter sniper killed Crooks as soon as he had him in his line of sight, Rowe told senators in a close-door briefing last week.

Sen. Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, told RCP that Rowe told senators during the briefing that Crooks was hiding behind the lip of the edge of the building, and the Secret Service counter sniper shot and killed him as soon as he could detect his forehead above that lip on the building’s roof edge.

Several members of Congress have questioned the role poor communications played in allowing Crooks the opportunity to shoot at Trump and the crowd and why local law enforcement snipers were tracking Crooks as early as 4:26 p.m., more than 100 minutes before he opened fire.

Lawmakers have repeatedly asked why, if local law enforcement was tracking Crooks so closely, didn’t the Secret Service agents detailed to Trump whisk him off the stage or prevent him from going on stage in the first place?

But those familiar with Secret Service protocol under similar circumstances say there are always multiple suspicious persons being tracked at Trump’s rallies and they often do not rise to the level of alerting the president’s security detail, those five to 10 agents whose sole job is to provide immediate security for Trump and act as a human shield if and when a threat emerges.

On the day of the rally, more than 100 people needed medical attention for heat exhaustion, and there were three other suspicious people besides Crooks that the Secret Service and/or local law enforcement were tracking, according to testimony by Christopher Paris, head of the Pennsylvania State Police, before the House Homeland Security panel last week.

Even if Secret Service received notification that local law enforcement was tracking Crooks and considered him suspicious, Secret Service agents wouldn’t go into high alert unless they knew he was armed or on top of a roof, which texts show local law enforcement never observed or notified the Secret Service command center about – even though they appear to have flagged Crooks as engaging in suspicious activity, including pointing a range finder toward the stage at one point in the hour leading up to the shooting.

“Use of the word ‘threat’ would have changed things and Trump would not have been allowed on stage,” a source in the Secret Service community told RCP. “A suspicious person on the far outer perimeter where eight cops are looking for him would not make 99% of agents keep the president off stage.”

If that suspicious person were reported crawling on a roof before Trump went on stage, then most likely the Secret Service would have prevented Trump from beginning his rally. If Crooks was spotted with a gun, then Trump definitely would have been held back, the source asserted. If Crooks was reported as running from police, then it would be more a Secret Service judgment call in the moment.

But Crooks apparently put the rifle together after scrambling up to the rooftop, leaving the Secret Service possibly only minutes or even just seconds to react once they learned that he had a gun and was crawling on the roof. Crooks’ position at the lip of the rooftop’s edge further hindered the Secret Service’s ability to shoot him before he opened fire, according to Rowe’s briefing with senators last week.

At least one knowledgeable source blames the local law enforcement counter snipers for what appears to be at least one officer’s failure to remain in his position and keep an eye on the AGR rooftop.

“The Butler ESU was told where to be and what their job was likely by a supervisor who had been in meetings with the Secret Service,” the source said. “They had one job. They should have kept their eyes on the rooftop they were assigned to man.”

Several local law enforcement officers assigned to a building on the outer perimeter of the Butler rally appeared on ABC News over the weekend and accused the Secret Service of failing to coordinate with them or even meet with them before the rally.

We were supposed to get a face-to-face briefing with the Secret Service members whenever they arrived, and that never happened,” said Jason Woods, lead sharpshooter on the SWAT team in Beaver County. “So, I think that was probably a pivotal point, where I started thinking things were wrong because it never happened,” he added. “We had no communication.”

The first communication between the local law enforcement group and the Secret Service, Woods said, was not until after the shooting. By then, he said, “it was too late.”

Secret Service spokesman Anthony Guglielmi declined to respond directly to the assertions by the Beaver County SWAT team.

Instead, he said that the agency “is committed to better understanding what happened before, during, and after the assassination attempt of former President Trump to ensure that never happens again. That includes complete cooperation with Congress, the FBI and other relevant investigations.”

A timeline released by Sen. Chuck Grassley’s office of local law enforcement’s activity in the 45 minutes before shots rang out sheds some light on their activity and efforts to keep track of Crooks.

At 4:26 p.m., a Beaver County counter sniper assigned to the AGR building left it after finishing his shift and spotted Crooks at a picnic table outside. The counter sniper alerted the remaining Beaver and Butler snipers in the AGR building about Crooks’ presence, according to texts released Grassley, an Iowa Republican.

At 5:38 p.m. a Beaver County sniper sent photos of Crooks to the Beaver, Butler, and Washington snipers in a group chat, with the Beaver sniper noting that Crooks was using “a range finder” looking toward the stage. He then recommended that the group notify Secret Service to “look out,” according to the texts. It’s unclear if that range finder information was ever conveyed to the Secret Service.

Additional texts among local law enforcement officers and a timeline of local law enforcement activity Grassley made public Monday further detail that the local law enforcement officers called into a local Butler law enforcement “command” radio frequency at 5:41 communicating Crooks’ description. They also conveyed that Crooks had a range finder and was “lurking” near the AGR building.

Then at 5:45 p.m. a Beaver County sniper sent photos of Crooks to a local law enforcement group chat with one Beaver law enforcement officer recommending that they alert “command,” though it’s unclear whether that reference is to the official Secret Service command center. The Grassley timeline, portions of which are redacted, indicates a text was sent at 5:45 p.m. to “Beaver ESU Command” about Crooks and “to relay to command.”

A Beaver County After-Action Report released by Grassley also indicates that the local law enforcement officers lost sight of Crooks in the minutes before he climbed up to the roof, then spotted him again at 6:05 p.m. at “picnic tables” with a backpack and “moving in the direction of Sheetz.”

Then from 6:06 to 6:12 p.m., a local law enforcement officer appears to have left his assigned post at a building to meet a local patrol “to let them know suspect is around the building on the side of fairgrounds,” according to the Grassley timeline.

But by that time, Crooks was already crawling on top of the AGR building, and at 6:12 p.m. opened fire on Trump and the crowd.

Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 16:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/fQat4os Tyler Durden

Mad 7: Microsoft Tanks, Down $250 Billion After Cloud Miss

Mad 7: Microsoft Tanks, Down $250 Billion After Cloud Miss

In our preview of today’s main event, we said that mood for the Mag7 would be defined by Microsoft’s fiscal Q4 earnings, and for those long the AI sector we have some bad news: Microsoft, true to its name, just shat the bed, because despite beating on revenue and EPS, the company missed on cloud and its shares are tumbling.

Here is what Microsoft just reported for Q4:

  • EPS $2.95, up 11% YoY, and beating estimate of $2.93
  • Revenue $64.73 billion, up1% YoY. and beating estimate $64.52 billion
    • Intelligent Cloud revenue $28.52 billion, missing estimate $28.72 billion
      • Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +30%, in line with estimates of +30.3%
    • Productivity and Business Processes revenue $20.32 billion, beating estimate $20.21 billion
    • More Personal Computing revenue $15.90 billion, beating estimate $15.54 billion
  • Revenue at constant currency +16%, beating estimate +14.7%
  • Operating income $27.93 billion, beating estimate $27.63 billion
  • Capital expenditure $13.87 billion, beating estimate $13.27 billion, which normally would have been sufficient to send the stock higher but not this time.

Here is the big picture breakdown:

And the segment detail:

While the results were generally strong, investor focused on the AI-heavy cloud segment: here, Azure posted a 29% revenue gain in the quarter, decelerating from the 31% growth in the previous period, with revenues just missing estimates.

Commenting on the quarter, CEO Satya Nadella said that “our strong performance this fiscal year speaks both to our innovation and to the trust customers continue to place in Microsoft. As a platform company, we are focused on meeting the mission-critical needs of our customers across our at-scale platforms today, while also ensuring we lead the AI era.”

Nadella has been infusing Microsoft’s product line with AI technology from partner OpenAI, including digital assistants called Copilots that can summarize documents and generate computer code, emails and other content. The company also is selling Azure cloud subscriptions featuring OpenAI products. However, judging by the disappointing cloud numbers, chatbots, pardon AI is rapidly emerging as the next “3D TV” megadud.

The market did not take it quite that way and the stock is plunging 8% – or roughly $250 billion in market cap – in after hours trading on the small miss in cloud revenue…

… with both S&P and nasdaq futures getting hammered after hours as the world’s biggest company craters.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 16:14

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/yRiX6cq Tyler Durden

Bonds & Bullion Bid; Crude, Crypto, & Mega-Cap Skid Ahead Of Fed/BoJ

Bonds & Bullion Bid; Crude, Crypto, & Mega-Cap Skid Ahead Of Fed/BoJ

With gamma ‘unclenched’ (and now solidly negative), markets have been free to roam…

Source: SpotGamma

And today saw more downward pressure as trader anxiety built ahead of the major macro catalysts and the fact that approximately 40% of the S&P 500 is expected to report this week across all sectors making it the biggest and perhaps one of the most important weeks of earnings this season.

Nasdaq was the biggest loser (again) today with Small Caps and The Dow managing gains (as tech weighed on the S&P 500 too). The last few minutes of the day-session (before MSFT) saw a panic-bid hit the major indices (but it didn’t last long)…

Nasdaq has almost perfectly recoupled with Russell 2000 YTD now…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s trading desk noted that overall volumes and S&P top of book both muted heading into MSFT EPS post close and FOMC + BOJ tomorrow.

  • Floor skewed 2% better to buy today after similar buy skews yday.

  • LOs selling Tech vs buying Hcare and Fins.

  • HFs much better for sale across Tech and Hcare vs buying consumer discretionary.

The basket of MAG7 stocks tumbled back to last week’s Global Outage spike lows….

Source: Bloomberg

UBS’ trading desk offered some additional color:

today more than half of the selling is short looking at our Hedge Fund flow (35/32/33 – buy/sell/short sell).”

‘Most Shorted’ stocks were slammed…

Source: Bloomberg

Semis were slammed again today – back to an interestingly coincidental drawdown level from the past year…

Source: Bloomberg

S&P is hovering around its 50DMA…

…while Nasdaq has tumbled down to its its 100DMA and found support…

Much of today’s plunge was triggered by the ubiquitous leaks from BoJ…

1. BOJ leaks some more hawkish jibberish (it owns half of all JGBs, rates simply can not rise)

2. Yen spikes

3. Carry trades hammered

4. Tech crushed

And sure enough they tumbled together…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended unchanged, with the BoJ leaked comments erasing the overnight gains in the greenback…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ignored the dollar and extended gains, spiking on the Israeli airstrikes headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were bid (as traders saw through the HL JOLTS data) with the short-end outperforming (2Y -4bps, 30Y -2bps). That small rally pushed all yields lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

…but expectations for a Fed rate-cut this week are practically zero…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended yesterday’s losses, testing a $65,000 handle (after briefly tagging $70k yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the total market-cap of the Magnificent 7 stocks tumbled back below $15 trillion today (down over $2 trillion from its record highs) – in context, that is just a two-month low…

Source: Bloomberg

Another ugly day for NVDA today (down 6.5%)…

Source: Bloomberg

…but of course, we will see what MSFT has to say about that tonight.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 16:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/f3xXM8D Tyler Durden

The Global Backdrop Is Bananas

The Global Backdrop Is Bananas

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The market focus is this week’s confluence of Fed, BOJ, and BOE meetings. However, if you think there is room for uncertainty there, consider the global backdrop which they operate in – which is bananas, both in terms of the headlines and the banana skins it presents for policymakers.

In Europe, it’s ongoing sabotage in France and Germany, and self-sabotage in Brussels. EU trade negotiators are planning for a ‘tariff-ic’ Trump presidency by offering a quick deal to buy more –(checks notes) “lobsters”– to put a dent in the vast bilateral trade deficit; or the EU will slap up to 50% tariffs on US imports – faster and higher than vs. China. Yet in a three-way Mexican stand-off between the US, EU, and China, a two-gunned EU is pointing one pistol at the US, and the other at its own head: The Good, The Bad, and the Smugly. As Michael Pettis notes, the EU trade surplus with the US is structural, so more US lobsters means fewer other imports as demand is fixed. Moreover, the US exports commodities to Europe –is the EU going to tariff LNG?!– while Europe exports luxuries, and autos and pharma that can be Made in America. Europe could shift to military Keynesianism and import US weapons to re-arm – but oddly won’t; yet Trump also decides whether to back NATO or leave a defenseless Europe to fend for itself. Does one need special training as a trade negotiator not to see these obvious facts, or their massive tail risk downsides to Europe’s economy?

In the US, President Biden has floated radical changes to the Supreme Court. On one level, all presidents appointing a new Supreme Court justice every two years (with an 18-year term) rather than for life reduces the current winner-takes-all approach. However, that would mean a court that was always changing, and whoever wins the presidency gets to ‘flip’ it quicker, raising the political stakes there. It also implies an independent judiciary is fine with Democrats as long as it produces outcomes they agree with. Republicans say that due to institutional bias, they need parallel universities, media, and businesses, and even the supposedly apolitical federal bureaucracy: but can a stable economy have a parallel legal system too? This proposal won’t pass as it requires a constitutional amendment, but it opens further avenues for structural polarisation in a country that has already seen incredible political drama in the past month.  

On which, US intelligence is reporting Iran is interfering in the US election to stop Trump; Russia may want to help him; and China is perhaps more focused down ballot. Beijing may be waiting for follow-up on Matt Stoller’s suggestion that Harris might be Hillary 2.0 and shift policy to back crypto while dumping anti-trust Lina Khan at the FTC and Bidenomics tariffs.

In the Middle East, we are still waiting for the Israeli response to the recent Hezbollah attack which killed 12 Israeli Druze children. This might be due to the head of the Israel Defence Forces warning that the country is “bordering on anarchy” after recent far-right protests that broke into military bases; but more likely this has not already happened because it is going to be significant, aiming to reset the regional deterrence equation. The market assumption is that this won’t trigger a regional war, but when munitions are flying, tiny margins can make a huge difference – as Trump’s slight head movement recently underlined. Hezbollah and Iran have both warned they will escalate if the blow is hard (as has Turkey); yet a perceived weak Israeli response, as pushed by the West, would in the eyes of many regional strategists ironically encourage more attacks on Israel: Vegetius might never have seen one, but he understood banana skins.

In Latin America, President Maduro claimed victory in oil-rich Venezuela’s election despite “109%” proof of shenanigans and malarkey. Several Latin American countries have refused to accept the result, and major anti-government protests are breaking out, which makes the deal Biden national security advisor Sullivan struck with Maduro — lift oil sanctions for a free election — look like it was drawn up by EU trade negotiators. What happens next is unclear. Maduro might muscle this out with the help of Cuba, Russia, and Iran – but the West will find it harder to smile at his oil exports; and Maduro might then be goaded into moving on neighboring Guyana’s off-shore oil, as he has threatened, creating a Latin America crisis to take the US eye off Ukraine and Asia. Alternatively, he might be toppled, implying a huge pro-Western shift in the region – and the oil picture would move in the other direction. Or Venezuela might be in chaos, again suggesting a potential impact on energy supply. Traditionally, one knew what the US would do here (*cough* CIA *cough*), yet as an ‘X’ quip says that whatever the US policy is here, it shouldn’t include a floating pier, I think of Woody Allen’s ‘Bananas’:

US soldier: Any word on where we are heading for?

Officer: I hear it’s San Marco.

US soldier: We fighting for or against the government?

Officer. The CIA isn’t taking any chances this time. Some of us are for, and some of us are going to be against them.

US soldier: Oh.

In Africa, Ethiopia allowed its currency to float vs. the dollar, and it collapsed 30%: all in all, it’s just another BRICS in a fall. Like I said, if you think the Fed/BOJ/BOE confluence makes for volatility, and it does, you are still missing the scale of things already happening round the world. While Ethiopia might not be a large economy, it still has a population of 123m, not much less than nearby BRICS member Egypt – which has also seen its currency collapse. So 250m odd people struggling to get by not far from Europe, on vital trade routes already plagued with attacks on commercial shipping.

Again, nothing a 25bp rate cut in a developed economy won’t paper over, thinks the part of the market happily consuming bananas it can’t grow, so has to import, while scattering the skins around it on the floor.

I sometimes feel like I am living in the scene in ‘Bananas’ where Woody, now president of San Marco wearing a shabby army uniform and cap and a fake Castro beard, arrives in the US to ask for aid. As he disembarks from the plane on the runway, he speaks English as if to foreigners to a US diplomat speaking normal English back to him, with their conversation officially interpreted by a man who speaks English with a very strong Latin American Spanish accent… until two orderlies from a psychiatric institute run in and try to catch him in a giant butterfly net. I’m not sure if I’m Woody, the diplomat, the interpreter, or the orderly: but I do know bananas when I see them.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 15:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/WHRc2nt Tyler Durden

Kremlin Tells Venezuelan Opposition To ‘Accept Defeat’, Warns Against US Interference

Kremlin Tells Venezuelan Opposition To ‘Accept Defeat’, Warns Against US Interference

The Kremlin on Tuesday issued a message to the Venezuelan opposition, saying it must accept that its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez lost the election that Nicolas Maduro has won a third term, after the results were certified by the country’s National Electoral Council.

No less than nine Latin American countries, including Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico have questioned the result or at least have shown some hesitancy to immediately recognize it. But Moscow has responded: “We see that the opposition does not want to accept its defeat. But we believe it must do so,” according to the words of Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Peskov further warned other global power against interfering in Venezuela’s internal politics. The statement came within 24 hours of Maduro delivering a televised speech wherein he warned an externally-sponsored ‘color revolution’ is afoot.

Anadolu via Getty Images

“It’s very important that attempts to sway the situation inside Venezuela are not fueled by third countries and that Venezuela is free from outside influence,” Peskov said.

Maduro’s supporters are now calling for counter-protests at a moment some districts of Caracas have seen violence as police attempt to quell the protesting crowds, which have sought to get close to the presidential palace.

China too has congratulated Maduro on another term in office, hailing that it further cements positive relations between Beijing and Caracas, which have in the past even conducted joint military drills.

According to Chinese state-run Global Times, “Noting that China and Venezuela are good friends and partners, Lin said that China attaches great importance to the development of bilateral relations and is willing to work with Venezuela to continuously enrich the China-Venezuela all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership and bring more benefits to the two peoples.”

The report further highlighted that all of this is “disappointing news” for Washington while at the same time the official results are being fully welcomed by Russia and China.

Protesters burn portrait of President Maduro, Anadolu via Getty Images

Russian state media too has frequently accused the US of seeking to foment coup and regime change in Caracas. Under the Trump administration this was definitely an accurate version of events, given former officials like John Bolton have openly stated that this was Washington’s policy. Prior unrest and widespread anti-Maduro unrest hit Caracas in 2019.

Moscow has also over the past many years denounced US-led regime change efforts in places like Syria as well, where Russia has a longtime military presence. Recently, Russia has been sending warships to Cuba, and to patrol the Caribbean region, which US officials have viewed as threatening.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 14:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/1plYmct Tyler Durden

Three Palestinian Terror Suspects Detained At Southern Border As Agents Lament Lack Of Resources

Three Palestinian Terror Suspects Detained At Southern Border As Agents Lament Lack Of Resources

Three Palestinian terror suspects were detained at the Southern Border earlier this month, the New York Post reported this week

The report says the terrorists were “found to have possible ties to terrorist organizations”. One migrant had photos on his phone that included a “masked man holding an AK-47 rifle”, according to law enforcement. 

The Post stated that Federal authorities in the San Diego sector apprehended three Palestinians and a Turkish migrant, all suspected of terror group ties. These individuals were among dozens of migrants who surrendered to border agents, sources said.

An investigation into the migrants is ongoing. They have been transferred to ICE, and the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force is involved.

This incident highlights security threats entering the US via the southern border, especially in San Diego, according to the Post. Overwhelmed Border Patrol agents, lacking tools to fully vet migrants, rely mainly on US terror watchlists and resources, without access to international databases.

One agent said: “Knowing who these guys are, we have, like, no access to anything international. Like, we really don’t and it kind of sucks.”

“I wanted to get into Border Patrol and protect from terrorists. And it’s like, well, I probably let terrorists in the country,” he added. 

“San Diego Field Office Intelligence Unit assesses that individuals inspired by, or reacting to the current Israel-Hamas conflict may attempt travel to or from the area of hostilities in the Middle East via circuitous transit across the Southwest border,” an alert to border agents in the area had previous said. 

“Foreign fighters motivated by ideology or mercenary soldiers of fortune may attempt to obfuscate travel to or from the US to or from countries in the Middle East through Mexico,” it read. 

The Post notes that the migrants crossed the border shortly after the Biden administration implemented new asylum restrictions, which have loopholes allowing many to stay. San Diego sees many migrants from over 100 countries that don’t accept deportees, making them exempt from restrictions.

Consequently, migrants from regions like India, China, and ISIS-recruiting Central Asia flock to San Diego. Despite overall slower migration due to new policies and summer heat, agents remain concerned about terrorists entering and those already released due to limited information from their home countries.

Has anyone seen “Border Czar” Kamala Harris?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 14:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/G4rt9ED Tyler Durden

Bullish Years Often Have Corrections

Bullish Years Often Have Corrections

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In bullish years, markets often have corrections. Yet, after a lengthy bullish run, it always surprises me how quickly investors and the media panic with the slightest hint of a market pullback.

During bullish years, corrections happen more often than you think. However, when corrections occur, it is not uncommon to see concerns about a “bear market” rise. However, historically speaking, the stock market increases about 73% of the time. The other 27% of the time, market corrections reverse the excesses of the previous advance. The table below shows the dispersion of returns over time. Critically, note that drawdowns of greater than 10% only occur 13% of the time.

However, 10% or less market corrections are more common and occur in every bullish year, as shown.

As investors, we must focus on probabilities versus possibilities. As noted, 38% of the time, the market is cranking out 20% or returns versus just a 6% chance of a greater than 20% correction. While the possibility of a 20% is not zero, the probability of a market advance outweigh those more rare events.

More importantly, a correction of more than 20% rarely happens in the middle of a bullish year. That is because “momentum” and “bullish psychology” drive markets higher. Secondly, drawdowns greater than 20% are almost always associated with an exogenous event like the 2008 banking crisis or the “Dot.com” crash.

Therefore, as we look at the current market, we must evaluate the possibilities versus probabilities of the current market correction devolving into something more egregious.

So Far, Just A Healthy Correction

In a market driven by bullish momentum, it is challenging to abruptly change its direction without the influence of an outside force. Think about it this way via the Physics Classroom:

“The sports announcer says, ‘Going into the all-star break, the Chicago White Sox have the momentum.’ The headlines declare ‘Chicago Bulls Gaining Momentum.’ The coach pumps up his team at half-time, saying ‘You have the momentum; the critical need is that you use that momentum and bury them in this third quarter.”

Momentum is a commonly used term in sports. A team that has the momentum is on the move and is going to take some effort to stop. A team that has a lot of momentum is really on the move and is going to be hard to stop. Momentum is a physics term; it refers to the quantity of motion that an object has. A sports team that is on the move has the momentum. If an object is in motion (on the move) then it has momentum.

Momentum can be defined as “mass in motion.” All objects have mass; so if an object is moving, then it has momentum – it has its mass in motion. The amount of momentum that an object has is dependent upon two variables: how much stuff is moving and how fast the stuff is moving. Momentum depends upon the variables mass and velocity. In terms of an equation, the momentum of an object is equal to the mass of the object times the velocity of the object.

The markets currently have both “mass,” a large contingent of equity buyers, and the “velocity” of increasing asset prices. Notably, we are nearing one of investors’ longest streaks of “risk-on” behavior. (h/t @sentimentrader)

Considering a speeding train with both mass and velocity, what would it take to stop that momentum abruptly? According to the laws of physics, applying a force “against” its motion for a given period is necessary. The more momentum an object has, the harder it is to stop. Thus, it would require a more significant amount of force, a more extended period, or both to bring such an object to a halt. As the force acts upon the object for a given amount of time, the object’s velocity is changed, and hence, the object’s momentum changes.

In the case of our speeding train, applying its brakes will slow it down gradually over a long distance, or a “derailer” can stop it immediately with devastating consequences.

The stock market has many of the same characteristics. In bullish years, market momentum can push asset prices for an extended period. However, there are points where “brakes” are applied, slowing that momentum. As shown, periods of “risk on” behavior can last for extended periods before a gradual reversal occurs.

However, you will note that in 2020, the market’s bullish momentum was “derailed” by the pandemic-related economic shutdown. That 35% decline was an unexpected, exogenous event that surprised investors. We saw the same during the “financial crisis” in 2008. However, outside of those two exogenous events, investor positioning and sentiment reversals, which lead to a loss of momentum, involved price corrections of 20% or less. As noted above, most of those corrections were 5-10%.

There is no evidence currently of an exogenous event that would “derail” the financial markets. Credit spreads, as shown, remain significantly suppressed, and economic data, while weakening, is not recessionary.

So far, the current correction, which has recently worried investors and the media, remains an expected and rather ordinary correction within a bullish year. As we noted in our previous Bull Bear Report:

“Such suggests that, as we saw in late May and June, the market will either consolidate or correct back to the 20-DMA. If the bulls can hold that level again, as they have, the market could continue to push higher. Such is possible given the current exuberance surrounding the Fed cutting rates. However, if the 20-DMA fails, as in early April, the 50-DMA becomes the next logical support, with the 100-DMA close behind. Such would encompass another 3-5% correction.

That correction process could encompass as much as 10%, as we saw in the summer of 2023.

However, like last summer, when investors should have been buying, they didn’t. This is because declines tend to lead investors to make one of the most significant investing mistakes.

Anchoring – The Biggest Mistake We Make

The thing that pushes individuals into making investing mistakes is almost always psychological. Yes, the pullback in the indices over the last two weeks certainly woke up overly complacent investors, both retail and professional alike. However, the pullback was unsurprising and a possibility we have discussed over the last few weeks.

Market corrections often trigger the “Anchoring effect” or the “relativity trap.” Anchoring is the tendency to compare our current situation within the scope of our limited experiences. Most investors become anchored to the value of their portfolio from one day, week, or month to the next. When that value is rising, we remember that value vividly. If there is a gain in that value, it is a positive event, and therefore, we assume that the next period will have a similar result.

When an inevitable correction comes, we measure the current value as the “high water mark.” The temporary loss of market momentum triggers investors into another psychological behavior of “loss avoidance,” where they exit the financial markets to avoid further losses.

These emotionally driven decisions often lead to inferior outcomes, and “anchoring” is one of our most significant mistakes.

To minimize that risk, “anchor” on the portfolio’s value two or three years ago. In any given market year, stocks will correct anywhere from 5% to 20%. However, focusing on the difference between principal value and gains will reduce the impulse to make drastic decisions that lead to poor investing outcomes.

Make Better Bad Choices

My nutrition coach had a great saying about dieting; “make better bad choices.”

We are all going to make bad choices from time to time. The goal is to try to make bad choices that don’t have an outsized effect on our investing. For example, when it comes to dieting, if you eat a burger, order it without cheese and mayonnaise.

The current market correction is likely just that—an ordinary pullback that is normal within every bullish year. Could it devolve into something larger? Absolutely, but the credit and stock markets “technicals” will likely provide sufficient warning.

However, if you feel you must “do something,” make small changes to avoid the risks of “bad decisions.”

  • Do more of what is working and less of what isn’t. 

  • Remember that the “Trend Is My Friend.”

  • Be either bullish or bearish, but not “hoggish.” (Hogs get slaughtered)

  • Remember, it is “Okay” to pay taxes.

  • Maximize profits by staging buys, working orders, and getting the best price.

  • Look to buy damaged opportunities, not damaged investments.

  • Diversify to control risk.

  • Control risk by always having pre-determined sell levels and stop-losses.

  • Do your homework.

  • Not allow panic to influence buy/sell decisions.

  • Remember that “cash” is for winners.

  • Expect, but do not fear corrections.

  • Expect to be wrong, and will correct errors quickly. 

  • Check “hope” at the door.

  • Be flexible.

  • Have the patience to allow your discipline and strategy to work.

  • Turn off the television, put down the newspaper, and focus on your analysis.

Importantly, keep your market perspectives and behavioral traits in check. We aim to ensure that reliable data and psychological emotions influence our decisions.

Most importantly, if you don’t have an investment strategy and discipline you are stringently following, that is an ideal place to begin.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 13:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/egvIZof Tyler Durden

Happy 9th Birthday, Ethereum!

Happy 9th Birthday, Ethereum!

Authored by Savannah Fortis via CoinTelegraph.com,

Nine years ago on July 30, the Ethereum network launched, sparking a revolution in the decentralized space. 

In 2015 Vitalik Buterin and a team of visionary developers introduced the concept of smart contracts via Ethereum, which forever changed the blockchain landscape by enabling decentralized applications (dApps) to be built on its platform.

Unlike Bitcoin, which primarily served as a digital currency until the advent of Bitcoin Ordinals, Ethereum was designed as a versatile, programmable blockchain. This allows developers to create and deploy a wide array of DApps that extend far beyond financial transactions.

Over the past nine years, Ethereum has grown from this ambitious project idea to a cornerstone of the crypto ecosystem, influencing countless innovations in finance, supply chain management, gaming, and beyond. It has fostered a vibrant community of developers, entrepreneurs, and enthusiasts who continue to push the boundaries of what is possible with blockchain technology.

To commemorate this milestone, we spoke with several key executives involved in the Ethereum ecosystem to share nine key insights on Ethereum’s past achievements, current challenges, and future potential.

1. Scalability challenges in emerging markets

Ethereum, being the largest blockchain with a total value locked (TVL) of nearly $60 billion, has been the ultimate example of needing to evolve in order to scale and host the amount of activity that it currently does. 

Despite the network’s many attempts to lower fees over the years, Dominic Schwenter, the chief operating officer of the layer-2 platform Lisk, highlights the pressing issue of such fees being a problem for the future of Ethereum’s scalability in emerging markets (EMs).

“What we want to avoid is a situation in which EMs wouldn’t be able to benefit from the fantastic ecosystem the Ethereum network provides.”

He said with improvements in L2 solutions, Ethereum could become a “cornerstone of the global digital economy,” significantly benefiting these regions. Both Ethereum and L2 addresses have surged by 127% in the last year, signaling that there is an increased amount of activity. 

This could, if given the right attention, domino into the needed improvements hinted to by Schewenter.

2. Tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA)

Schwenter also emphasized the benefits of tokenizing Real World Assets for EMs.

“RWA allows for increased access to capital in regions where access to traditional financial services is usually limited.”

By lowering transaction costs and enhancing liquidity, tokenization of RWAs promotes financial inclusion.

This would allow EMs to take a giant step towards an optimal hybrid financial system, connecting them to the rest of the world in the best possible way, while transforming industries and empowering individuals worldwide.

3. Stablecoins for financial inclusion

Amanda Cassatt, the founder and CEO of Serotonin and former marketing head at Consensys, reflected on the role of stablecoins in achieving what she called Ethereum’s original goal of “banking the unbanked.”

She has witnessed the impact of stablecoins in emerging markets like the Philippines, where they play major roles in facilitating everyday transactions.

“In early Ethereum days I would’ve been surprised to hear about the degree of stablecoin adoption. Lots of us assumed that one day crypto would be used regularly for payments, but at the time, the idea was a floating token like BTC or ETH.”

“Stablecoins make a ton of sense,” she said and predicted that they will become “even more important.”

4. Institutional crypto adoption

Cassatt pointed out Ethereum’s role in helping encourage the evolution of institutional crypto adoption, noting the shift from private blockchains to public blockchains.

“The whole idea of ‘blockchain without crypto’ which was a trendy way to predict institutional adoption is gone now. To the degree institutions are adopting blockchain, it’s because they’re adopting crypto.”

“It’s a great idea,” she said and encouraged that “more should consider it for balance sheets.” This could even look like investing in assets like ETFs, which just saw a historic entrance of the ETH ETF to the market on July 23.

5. Ethereum as a settlement layer

Matt Katz, the co-founder and CEO of Caldera, observed that Ethereum has evolved from an application development platform to a robust settlement and data availability layer for numerous rollups. 

“These scaling advancements will open doors to mass-market applications in areas such as decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), gaming, and social platforms.”

Katz attributes this evolution to be largely facilitated by optimistic and ZK-proofs, which allow applications to securely “rent” Ethereum’s security affordably.

6. Distribution and infrastructure investment

Cassatt also shed light on the investment trends within the Ethereum ecosystem, pointing back to when Ethereum first gained success, venture capitalists (VCs) invested heavily in layer-1 and layer-2 solutions rather than applications built on Ethereum.

“The risk/reward profile of infrastructure investment lures VCs and attracts builders who want VC backing.”

Cassatt said the next era needs to focus on proving that applications can be successful and return capital. She highlights the importance of distribution, citing the Telegram and TON ecosystem as a promising area.

“Telegram is poised to become the non-government-controlled version of WeChat, with fully integrated self-sovereign wallets and the ability to bring significant activity on-chain,” she explains. As regulation becomes clearer, Cassatt said she expects more companies with actual distribution to enter the crypto space, driving industry growth.

7. Simplifying user experience with account abstraction

Charles Wayn, the co-founder of Galxe, said he is particularly excited about the development of account abstraction, which simplifies the user experience and allows more flexible transaction models.

“This means easier wallet management, enhanced security, and the ability to execute more complex transactions seamlessly,” he explains. He sees this innovation as one that will make Ethereum more accessible and user-friendly for a broader audience.

 8.Commitment to open source and decentralization

Karl Floersch, the co-founder of Optimism and CEO of OP Labs, stressed the importance of driving forward open source standards and public goods for the ecosystem.

“A lot of the crypto narrative internally revolves around vigorous competition between large players, but there is so little discourse on how effectively we are building open source software to drive us towards a more and more open internet.”

He pointed to a quote from Vitalik Buterin in which he said, “We are not here to just create isolated tools and games, but rather build holistically toward a more free and open society and economy, where the different parts — technological, social and economic — fit into each other.”

Floersch believes there is too much “zero sum” competition in the current market, and emphasized the need for economic alignment, through programs like retroactive public goods funding, to keep the vision of a decentralized internet alive.

9. Ethereum at a Crossroads

The Optimism co-founder said he’d love to see Ethereum reach the vision of the world computer in both technical capabilities and social and economic capabilities.

However, he said in order to reach that two things need to happen, the first being an open source tech stack that is decentralized without sacrificing UX, along with sufficient funding for open protocols that benefit the ecosystem at large.

“If we get these two things right, then it won’t be about where Ethereum will be in 10 years, but instead what a vibrant ecosystem the internet will become.”

Wes Levitt, the head of strategy at Theta Labs, also sees Ethereum at a pivotal moment. While it has been a pioneer in expanding crypto’s scope beyond Bitcoin, it faces competition from other Layer 1 blockchains like Solana.

“The next year or so will tell us how the story ends,” Levitt states. He believes that Ethereum’s ability to maintain its market cap dominance, especially with the launch of new ETFs, will be crucial in solidifying its position in the crypto ecosystem.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 12:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/tva6dKQ Tyler Durden

Conference Board Consumer Confidence ‘Revised Down’ Again…

Conference Board Consumer Confidence ‘Revised Down’ Again…

For the eighth month in the last nine, the headline Conference Board Consumer Confidence print was revised lower in June (dramatically so)…

Source: Bloomberg

That June revision from 100.4 to 97.8 then allowed the headline to ‘beat’ in July at 100.3 (which is still down from the original June print) but flat at post-COVID lows. Notably the Present Situation tumbled to its lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The overall trend in the labor market indicator remains weaker…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Purchase plans for homes, cars, and appliances all plunged…

Source: Bloomberg

Just remind us again how exactly ‘confidence’ can be revised lower?

Tyler Durden
Tue, 07/30/2024 – 10:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/LJOaAw1 Tyler Durden