Month: August 2024

By Justin Choi of Campus Reform

The University of California, Los Angeles Medical School hired students to write the curriculum for the school’s required Structural Racism and Health Equity (SRHE) courses. 

A June 2023 document that was obtained by Do No Harm, a medical and policy advocacy group, showed that UCLA’s medical school was seeking to recruit first and second year medical students to develop a curriculum associated with liberal ideas such as critical race theory.

The SRHE curriculum “emphasizes critical race theory, queer theory” and “diversity, equity, and inclusion ideology.” The university’s SRHE course guide directly states: “The first section of the year will focus on … how structural determinants of health such as race shape our present healthcare framework.” 

The document outlined that in order to apply, applicants must have a letter of support from a peer outlining their commitment to anti-racist work.

The Chairman of Do No Harm, Dr. Stanley Goldfarb, told the Washington Examiner that UCLA’s plan to recruit students to “develop curriculum in training other medical students is a terrible idea.” 

He argued that first-year students would not be appropriate mentors when most freshman students never even have treated a patient to begin with. 

A Syrian asylum-seeker has confessed to a knife attack at a “Festival of Diversity” that killed three and wounded eight, German authorities said on Sunday as they investigated the man’s apparent ties to the Islamic State terror group. The incident has intensified the country’s immigration debate as critical elections approach in September. 

Owing to German privacy laws, authorities have only identified the prisoner by his first name and last initial — “Issa Al H.” Prosecutors say he was motivated by “radical Islamist convictions,” and lashed out at people perceived to be non-believers, directing repeated stabs at their necks and upper bodies. 

The Friday-night attack took place at a town square in the western Germany city of Solingen, as festival-goers listened to a live music performance amid festivities being held on the occasion of the city’s 650th anniversary — rather than emphasizing German heritage and history, the organizers were seemingly determined to put “diversity” front and center. The event was supposed to last all weekend, but was cancelled shortly after the bloodshed. 

The Islamic State (IS) claimed the assailant was acting as the group’s “soldier,” and posted a video that purportedly shows the 26-year-old holding a long knife as he swears his loyalty to the group’s leader, and says he’s chosen to kill as many non-believers as possible at Solingen’s Festival of Diversity. He says he’s from Deir al-Zor, an eastern Syria city on the Euphrates where IS is still active.  

While this will likely receive light attention in major media that avoids examination of terrorists’ motives that spring from Western foreign policy, the man in the video says his then-imminent attack will be an act of retaliation for the killing of Muslims in Syria, Iraq and Bosnia. He also says he is seeking vengeance for the “people of Palestine” who are being massacred by “Zionists.” With western backing, Israel’s attack on Gaza in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion has killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. 

Der Spiegel reported he arrived in Germany in late 2022 and requested asylum. However, under European asylum rules, he was supposed to be Bulgaria’s responsibility. When German authorities sought to transfer him to Bulgaria in June 2023, he’d gone into hiding. However, no warrant for his apprehension was issued as he was apparently deemed harmless. There was also a logistical consideration, as Germany was essentially out of space to hold detainees. By August of last year, the transfer deadline had passed and he was Germany’s problem alone. Rather than arresting and deporting him, the country granted him protection and moved him to Solingen, where he carried out his attack on Friday.    

Other horrors attributed to IS in recent years include a March attack on a Russian concert hall that killed 143 people and January bombings in Iran that killed close to 100. The 19-year-old arrested in Austria on charges of planning a massacre at a Taylor Swift concert earlier this month was said to have, like the Solingen slayer, sworn allegiance to IS. 

The attack comes in the final run-up to Sept. 1 elections in the German states of Saxony and Thuringia, where polls indicate the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party may become the first or second-most prominent party. Center-right and right-wing parties said the bloodshed should convince Germans to elect politicians who want to cut off the flow of third-world immigrants to the country. 

“If Solingen is not the turning point for the coalition, then I don’t know what else has to happen for some people here to finally come to their senses,” said Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz. 

Striking a similar tone, CDU senior official Jens Spahn said, “For years, hundreds of young men from Syria and Afghanistan have been coming to Germany and Europe every day. This must finally end.” Leftists, however, rejected their demands, with Social Democratic Party (SPD) leader Saskia Esken, for example, saying an immigration halt would “not be compatible with our laws, not with the European Refugee Convention, not with our constitution.”  

Federal Justice Minister Marco Buschmann announced he was in discussions to put new knife-control laws on the books. The CDU’s Merz ridiculed that pursuit, saying “the problem is not the knives, but the people who carry them around. In the majority of cases, these are refugees, and in the majority of the attacks, there are Islamist motives behind them.”

After June’s Boeing-driven collapse, US Durable Goods Orders were expected to rebound strongly in July (preliminary data released today) and they did – jumping 9.9% MoM (vs +5.0% exp) from June’s 6.9% MoM plunge. That is the biggest MoM jump in orders since July 2020’s post-COVID lockdown bounce…

Source: Bloomberg

However, ex-Transports, orders dropped 0.2% MoM (worse than the 0.1% decline expected) and leaving core orders up just 0.6% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Once again it seems like it’s all Boeing (one way or the other)…

Source: Bloomberg

So what happens in August as the new planes go under inspection…?

Finally, orders placed with US factories for business equipment declined in July and the prior month’s gain was revised lower, suggesting firms are more guarded about investment.

The value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that exclude aircraft and military hardware, decreased 0.1% last month after a revised 0.5% gain in June,

Authored by Jeff Louderback via The Epoch Times,

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will no longer receive Secret Service protection after he announced on Aug. 23 that he was suspending his campaign in 10 battleground states and urging voters in those states to support former President Donald Trump instead.

“Mr. Kennedy no longer has USSS protection,” Kennedy’s press secretary, Stefanie Spear, told The Epoch Times on Aug. 25.

Anthony Guglielmi, Secret Service chief of communications, confirmed that Kennedy “is no longer a protectee given he suspended his campaign,” in an Aug. 25 statement to The Epoch Times.

Kennedy was denied Secret Service protection five times before the Department of Homeland Security granted it shortly after the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on July 13.

Thomas Michael Crooks was identified by authorities as the gunman. Trump’s ear was grazed by the gunfire, former fire chief Corey Comperatore was killed, and two others were injured.

Following the attack, Trump said that Kennedy should “immediately” get Secret Service protection.

“In light of what is going on in the world today, I believe it is imperative that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receive Secret Service protection—immediately,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Given the history of the Kennedy Family, this is the obvious right thing to do!”

On July 15, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas authorized Kennedy’s Secret Service protection.

“We are in a heightened and very dynamic threat environment. The United States’ Secret Service, we—including the FBI and our other partners across the federal government—take the threats very seriously and adjust security measures as warranted, maintaining the safety and security of the president, the former president in their campaign events is one our most vital priorities,” Mayorkas said.

“In light of the weekend’s events, the president has directed me to work with the Secret Service to provide protection for Robert Kennedy Jr.”

It’s standard procedure for the Secret Service to end protection when a presidential candidate drops out of the race. Kennedy said that he has suspended his campaign in 10 battleground states but will be on the ballot in the other 40 states during his Aug. 23 address. He encouraged voters to support him in states where he would not be considered a “spoiler” and detract backing for their Trump or Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.

In April 2023, Kennedy announced his candidacy to challenge President Joe Biden for the 2024 Democratic Party’s presidential nomination.

After encountering multiple roadblocks from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and asserting that the organization was preventing other candidates from competing, Kennedy chose to run as an independent in October 2023.

Earlier this year, the DNC announced the creation of a team to counter third-party and independent presidential candidates.

It hired a veteran Democrat strategist to spearhead an aggressive communication plan to combat Kennedy, independent Cornel West, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

The DNC has backed lawsuits in multiple states designed to prevent Kennedy from being on the ballot. Last week alone, he appeared in Pennsylvania and New York to testify in ballot access hearings.

Kennedy said that the repeated denials for Secret Service protection were “political” and part of a trend of federal agencies being “weaponized to serve a political agenda.”

A man is taken into police custody outside an event attended by Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, at Wilshire Ebell Theatre in Los Angeles, Calif., on Sept. 15, 2023. Courtesy of Stefanie Spear

Kennedy said his campaign had to spend millions of dollars on private security before being granted Secret Service protection.

Authorities making the decisions would rather he “spend money on protection than spending it on field organization or advertising,” Kennedy said.

Federal law indicates that the president and the Secretary of Homeland Security have the “broad discretion” to authorize Secret Service protection of presidential candidates.

Major presidential and vice presidential candidates, however, typically receive DHS security protection within 120 days of the first Tuesday of November in an election year.

Kennedy’s campaign has encountered a number of security issues. In September 2023, security personnel arrested an armed man impersonating a U.S. Marshal outside a campaign event in Los Angeles.

One month later, another armed man was arrested after twice attempting to break into Kennedy’s Los Angeles home. When the man was released after the first incident under a restraining order, he returned to the candidate’s home and again tried to break in before authorities arrested him a second time.

Following Mayorkas’s fifth denial of Secret Service protection in April, Kennedy threatened to sue the DHS.

“I worry about the safety of my family and the safety of bystanders if there happens to be a more serious incident,” he told reporters after a campaign stop in Des Moines, Iowa, in April.

Gavin de Becker, whose firm provided private security for Kennedy, said last year that Secret Service protection is often issued to candidates before the 120-day window, pointing to former President Jimmy Carter giving then-candidate Ronald Reagan and other GOP candidates security “long before the 1980 election.”

De Becker also noted that the Carter administration provided Sen. Edward Kennedy, Kennedy’s uncle, with Secret Service protection 441 days before the 1980 election, “even though [Sen.] Kennedy hadn’t formally announced his candidacy.”

The Secret Service says it provides protection to “major presidential and vice presidential candidates,” as defined by “the Secretary of Homeland Security after consultation with an advisory committee.”

“The Secret Service has no role in determining who is to be considered a major candidate. The Secretary of Homeland Security determines who qualifies as a major candidate and when such protection should commence. … This determination is made in consultation with an advisory committee,” the agency’s website reads.

That advisory committee comprises the speaker of the House, House minority whip, Senate majority leader, Senate minority leader, and one additional member chosen by the committee.

Kennedy said he will now be “actively” campaigning for Trump. The Kennedy campaign did not provide further comment about the removal of Secret Service protection, and it is not known if he will retain Gavin de Becker & Associates again to provide security while on the campaign trail.

DHS did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

US futures edged fractionally higher to start the week with small-caps outperforming as last week’s rally, when euphoric investors bought stocks after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at Jackson Hole, fizzled. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures gained 0.1% while and Nasdaq 100 futures turned red after both indexes notched gains of more than 1% on Friday when Powell’s J-Hole speech cemented the case for an interest-rate cut next month; the debate has now shifted to the size of the cut and what that would say about the state of the economy. Pre-market, NVDA which reports earnings this week, was up about 1% leading both Mag7 and Semis higher. Bond yields reversed losses and rose 3 bps tracking the nearly 3% spike in oil after Israel launched a pre-emptive strike involving 100 warplanes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and declared a 48-hour state of emergency while Libya’s Eastern government said on Monday morning it will stop all oil production and export. The yen erased all gains after earlier rising to its strongest level since January as it took reacted to the rise in US yields; the dollar edged up while gold held near a record high. Bitcoin touched $65,000 for the first time in about three weeks. The macro data focus is on Durable/Cap Goods but NVDA earnings on Weds is the key event. Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech should give a tailwind to risk assets this week.

In premarket trading, Guardant Health slipped 3% after filing an open-market agreement to sell as much as $400 million in shares via Jefferies. SolarEdge Technologies gained 4% after Zvi Lando stepped down as CEO. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

• Daqo New Energy (DQ) falls 4% after the polysilicon maker reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• PDD Holdings (PDD) falls 15% after reporting weaker-than-expected sales, a sign that Temu’s growth is falling short of investors’s heightened expectations.
• Xpeng ADRs (XPEV) gains 3% as the Chinese electric-car maker said its CEO He Xiaopeng had purchased 1m Class A shares of the company in the open market at an average of HK$27.13 each, in a filing to HKEX.

Positioning for lower US borrowing costs rippled through financial markets after Fed Powell said that the “time has come” to pivot to monetary easing. Traders added to bets on a half-point of rate cuts in September — but a reduction of that magnitude could signal the economy is heading for a hard landing, tempering demand for stocks.

“If you have to cut rates faster, that also suggests that the economy is doing less well,” Eleanor Taylor Jolidon, co-head of Swiss and global equities at Union Bancaire Privee, said on Bloomberg TV. “A 50 basis-point cut would be reflection of that weaker data that we saw at the end of July that did somewhat spook the market.”

Fears of escalating conflict in the Middle East prompted some haven buying after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Crude oil advanced almost 3%. The yen gained for a second day to its strongest level since January, but then started tracking rising US yields which moved in tandem with oil, and the USDJPY is now at session highs, almost 100 pips off the lows.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was little changed, with trading volumes less than half of the average as UK markets are closed for a holiday.  Germany’s business outlook held at its lowest level since February, highlighting the gloom once again engulfing Europe’s biggest economy after an early-year rebound fizzled out, but some assistance may be on the way on interest rates. After first lowering borrowing costs in June, the European Central Bank has signaled another move is likely in September. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Elia Group shares rise as much as 3.8% as Oddo upgrades the Belgian electricity firm to outperform, saying a new CEO and larger capital expenditure plan may boost the shares
• Instalco falls as much as 4.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux cut its recommendation for the Swedish electrical-installations group to hold from buy, advising caution until there is proof that its end markets are recovering
• Meyer Burger shares slump as much as 56% after the Swiss solar panel maker announced it will pause the construction of a solar cell plant in Colorado, which is currently not financially viable

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advances for third day, with Hong Kong and Australia leading regional winners. Hang Seng climbs about 0.8% as tech stocks resume gains. Shanghai Composite remains broadly unchanged. Japanese stocks underperformed as the yen strengthens to below 144-handle against the dollar.  Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China left the rate on its one-year policy loans, or the medium-term lending facility, at 2.3%, after a slashing the rate by 20 basis points in July. The decision underscores Beijing’s cautious approach in supporting the economy, even as China reported a rare contraction in bank loans amid weak demand. The PBOC has been walking a fine line of stimulating growth and cooling a government-bond buying spree to limit financial risks in recent months.

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index rose 0.1% after it slumped the most in nine months on Friday. Aussie and kiwi are at the bottom of G-10 currency scoreboard. USD/JPY rose 0.2%, paring earlier decline of 0.6% to 143.45, the lowest since Aug. 5 after Powell said the “time has come” for the Fed to lower benchmark rates from their two-decade high, his clearest signal yet that long-awaited rate cuts are imminent.  One-month risk reversals in EUR/USD rallied to 38 basis points, the most bullish sentiment for the common currency since Dec. 2020

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield reversed an earlier drop to rise 2bps to 3.812%, tracking the sharp spike in oil prices. Most euro-zone 10-year yields are higher by ~2bp on the day after Germany’s IFO business confidence index fell less than expected; UK markets are closed for a bank holiday. The Australian curve bull steepens with 3-year yield down 6bps. JGB futures remain stronger in line with Friday’s post-Powell Treasury rally. Treasury auctions ahead this week include $69b 2-year Tuesday, $70b 5-year Wednesday (a possible unscheduled reopening) and $44b 7-year Thursday

In commodities, oil surged almost 3% as the Middle East braced for escalating conflict after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Cease-fire negotiations were held in Cairo and are set to continue, AP said. Separately, Libya’s eastern-based government said it will stop all oil production and exports. Gold extended a rally above $2,500 an ounce, and was trading near all time highs of $2,525. Iron ore extended a rebound with China’s huge inventories of the material continuing to draw down, in a tentative sign that a period of severe oversupply is starting to ease. 

Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic calendar includes July preliminary durable goods orders (8:30am) and August Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include San Francisco Fed President Dale (2pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 5,662.25
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 517.73
• MXAP up 0.5% to 186.37
• MXAPJ up 0.8% to 579.25
• Nikkei down 0.7% to 38,110.22
• Topix down 0.9% to 2,661.41
• Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 17,798.73
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 2,855.52
• Sensex up 0.8% to 81,769.62
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 8,084.52
• Kospi down 0.1% to 2,698.01
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.24%
• Euro little changed at $1.1181
• Brent Futures up 1.1% to $79.88/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,523.20
• US Dollar Index little changed at 100.69

Top Overnight News

• Stocks paused on Monday as rising tension in the Middle East tempered the bullish sentiment sparked by the prospect of imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• Hours after 100 Israeli warplanes swooped over southern Lebanon, taking out thousands of Hezbollah missile launchers in what was called a preemptive strike, the Middle East braced for an expanded conflagration that could involve Iran and its allied militias.
• Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) imposed binding arbitration on Teamsters Union, CN, and CPKC railways, according to Teamsters cited by Reuters. Canada Industrial Relations Board halts work stoppages at CN and CP railways.
• Canada Labour Minister Mackinnon said the CIRB has issued a decision to impose final and binding arbitration in negotiations between CN Rail, CPKC, and Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, and he expects that railway companies and employees will resume at the earliest opportunity, according to a post on X.
• Canadian National Railway said it had received an order from CIRB imposing binding arbitration between the company and Teamsters Canada Rail Conference. This means that the strike notice recently issued to CN by the Teamsters is now voided. CN Rail added that CIRB has also ordered that no further labour stoppage, including lockout or strike, can occur during the arbitration process, and will comply with the order, which also extends the current collective agreement until a new agreement is signed between the parties.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks kicked off the week mixed following the gains on Wall Street after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish pivot, whilst the weekend was packed with geopolitics in which the heavy fires between Israel and Hezbollah resulted in no civilian casualties, but both sides expressed no appetite for further escalation. ASX 200 traded firm with the index underpinned by Real Estate, Tech, and Energy, although further upside was limited by the losses in Healthcare – the underperforming sector. Nikkei 225 was pressured by the recent JPY strength following the Fed Chair’s dovish comments after the BoJ Governor’s hawkish remarks on Friday, in which Powell’s speech ultimately resulted in a weaker Dollar and lower US bond yields. Auto stocks fell with Yamaha Motors sliding after reports Yamaha Corp was to sell a 1.7% stake in Yamaha Motors. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed with Hong Kong bolstered by its Real Estate sector, whilst the mainland was subdued in a tight range after the PBoC conducted its delayed MLF with a maintained rate at 2.30%. US equity futures were mostly subdued at the resumption of trade with contracts taking a breather after Friday’s Powell-induced gains. Ultimately, price action was flat and horizontal overnight. (ES -0.1%)

Top Asian News

• PBoC Governor Pan said financial risks in key areas are being resolved in an orderly manner and added the government will encourage financial institutions to increase support for weak links or in key areas, according to Bloomberg.
• PBoC injected CNY 300bln via 1-year MLF at a maintained rate of 2.30% (delayed MLF).
• PBoC injected CNY 471bln via 7-day Reverse Repo at a maintained rate of 1.70%.
• Japanese former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba says he will run in the ruling LDP leadership race on September 27th, according to Reuters.
• IMF Chief Economist said there is scope for the BoJ to further normalize monetary policy, raising interest rates gradually for some time, according to Reuters.

European bourses have kicked the week off with marginal losses, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%. Sectors are mixed with no overarching theme; Tech is the incremental laggard as we count down to Nvidia numbers later in the week. DAX 40 -0.2% is the incremental laggard; German Ifo release was better-than-feared but was a poor set of data and keeps stagnation/recessionary talk alive. Stateside, futures are a touch higher with specifics light as participants digest Jackson Hole and prepare for NVDA and PCE this week before Payrolls next week, ES +0.2% & NQ +0.2%.

Top European News

• ECB’s Chief Economist Lane said the return to the 2% inflation target is not yet secure. “The monetary stance will have to remain in restrictive territory for as long as needed to shepherd the disinflation process towards a timely return to the target”, Lane said. Lane also warned that keeping rates high for too low could deliver below-target inflation.
• Riksbank Minutes: Overall, the minutes highlight that while a 50bps move was considered/discussed the preference among the board was for 25bps with various factors as to why a larger magnitude would not be appropriate. However, the language makes clear that nothing is ruled out ahead and the preference from the governor is for a cut to occur at each meeting in H2 (in-line with the most dovish end of the new verbal guidance from August). Full details on the headline feed

FX

• DXY flat after what was a bruising week for the Dollar last week, picked up off the overnight 100.52 base but is yet to make any real traction into the green.
• EUR and GBP both a touch softer; no real follow through from Ifo while the UK is away for a Bank Holiday with specifics light thus far. Single currency back below 1.12 after failing to hold onto the handle overnight.
• Havens outperform given the weekend’s geopolitical escalation while CitiFX month-end model points to USD selling with the strongest signal vs the JPY; USD/JPY sub-144.00.
• Antipodeans softer given the risk tone and after strong performance last week.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1139 vs exp. 7.1132 (prev. 7.1358)
• Brazil’s Central Bank Chief Neto said recent volatility may show the market is pricing less room for fiscal and monetary intervention in the future, according to Reuters.

Fixed Income

• Bunds in the red after only a fleeting haven bid on overnight geopols. Complex came under some modest pressure after a better-than-feared German Ifo release, but one that still points to significant pressure in the bloc’s largest economy.
• At session lows of 134.24 but yet to test Thursday’s base at 134.11 with Friday’s at 134.07 before the figure.
• OATs await details from the meeting between President Macron and other political leaders, following on from his meeting with NFP PM candidate Castets on Friday.
• USTs are essentially flat with specifics light as the benchmarks has already reacted to Jackson Hole with attention now on upcoming inflation and jobs numbers. Holding at the low end of 113-22 to 113-30 parameters, support some way off at Friday’s 113-08+ base.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks at session highs of 75.83/bbl and USD 80.02/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively, upside driven by the weekend’s geopolitical escalation.
• As it stands, we are awaiting any fresh details from Hezbollah and/or Israel on their next steps.
• Spot gold also supported and lifting further above the USD 2500/oz mark but yet to test the USD 2531/oz ATH from last week.
• Base metals firmer, supported by the initially constructive overnight tone and now awaiting fresh macro drivers in somewhat light trade; reminder, UK Bank Holiday means no LME trade.
• Russia’s (441k BPD) Omsk oil refinery has reported a fire, which has been brought under control; plant is working as usual

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Lebanon’s Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel early on Sunday. Meanwhile, Israel’s military said it struck Lebanon with around 100 jets to thwart a larger attack. The event was framed as one of the biggest clashes in more than 10 months. Three deaths were confirmed in Lebanon and one death in Israel, both sides indicated appetite to avoid further escalation, but warned that there could be more strikes to come, according to Reuters.
• Hezbollah said it completed the ‘first phase’ of its response to Israel’s killing of a top commander last month and hit 11 Israeli military sites on Sunday, firing more than 320 Katyusha rockets, according to Reuters. Hezbollah said it began the attack on Israel with a large number of drones in response to the top commander’s killing in a Beirut suburb last month, and it will take “some time” to complete its response to the top commander’s killing.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said the military intercepted all the drones that Hezbollah launched at a strategic target in central Israel, and the attacks are ‘not the end of the story.’ Netanyahu added that the country has taken the first step towards returning its residents in the north safely to their homes, according to Reuters.
• Hezbollah leader Nasrallah said the group will assess the impact of Sunday’s operation; if results are not seen to be enough, “we will respond another time”. The Group said its military operation was completed as planned, with precision, and decided not to respond to the killing of a top commander by targeting civilian areas. Response was delayed for several reasons, including mass Israeli and US military mobilization. Hezbollah said it wanted to target military sites close to Tel Aviv, and targeted a military intelligence base 110 km into Israeli territory, 1.5 km away from Tel Aviv. The group said for the first time, it sent drones to Israel from the Bekaa region, while the group said it had no intention to use precision missiles today, but may use them in the near future.
• Israel’s Foreign Minister said Israel does not seek a full-scale war but will act according to developments on the ground, according to Reuters.
• Gaza talks in Cairo ended without agreement, according to Reuters citing Egyptian sources. “Axios quotes US official: Gaza talks will continue in the coming days through working groups to address issues and remaining details”, reported by Sky News Arabia.
• White House National Security Adviser Sullivan says they are still working in Cairo towards a ceasefire deal, according to Reuters.
• Hamas’ armed wing said it fired a rocket at Tel Aviv, according to Reuters.
• Jordan warned the escalation in Lebanon and its ‘dangerous repercussions’ could lead to regional war, according to Reuters.
• On Sunday, Hamas said that it rejects the new Israeli conditions put forward in the Gaza ceasefire talk, according to Reuters.
• Iranian Foreign Minister said Iran is “not afraid of escalation, but we do not seek it, unlike Israel”, according to Al Jazeera, adding that their retaliation “will be decisive and well calculated”.
• Yemen’s Defence Minister said Yemen is ready to inflict painful blows on Israel, according to IRNA.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said negotiations are ongoing with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Switzerland about a second summit on peace, according to Reuters. He added Ukraine’s operation in Russia’s Kursk region is difficult but he views its progress positively.
• Russia and Ukraine exchange 115 prisoners each, according to RIA. Russia said Ukraine has returned servicemen captured in the Kursk region.
• Ukraine’s military says Ukraine air defence systems in Kyiv region engaged in repelling Russian air attack, according to Reuters.
• Ukraine said Belarus massing troops at the border under a pretext of drills, and warned of “unfriendly moves”, according to Walla’s Elster.
• Russian Kremlin says there have been no ceasefire discussions with Ukraine; topic of negotiations has “pretty much lost its relevance”.

Geopolitics: South China Sea

• Philippines’ South China Sea Task Force said Chinese Coast Guard vessels ‘made close perilous manoeuvres that resulted in ramming’ and deployed water cannons against Manila’s fisheries vessel, leading to engine failure, and added that fisheries vessel was ‘targeted by People’s Liberation Army Navy ship and multiple China Coast Guard ships’ to block the mission.
• China says it ‘took control measures’ towards the Philippine vessel near the Sabina Shoal, and added that Philippine’s vessel ‘illegally’ entered waters near Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea. China said the Philippine vessel has been continuously approaching Chinese Coast Guard ships in a dangerous manner, according to Reuters.
• Philippines South China Sea Task Force said a Chinese fighter jet ‘engaged in irresponsible and dangerous manoeuvres, deploying flares multiple times at a dangerously close distance’, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: US-China

• Chinese Commerce Ministry said it strongly opposes the US adding Chinese entities to the export control list over Russia-related issues, and the action disrupts international trade order and hinders normal economic exchanges. Commerce Ministry said it will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese companies.

Geopolitics: Other

• Chinese President Xi is to visit Russia in October, according to RIA citing the Chinese envoy.
• North Korea said it will continue to strengthen strategic power to control security challenges posed by the reorientation of US nuclear strategy, according to KCNA.
• China’s military said it conducted armed patrols and air-ground joint police patrols near China-Myanmar borders, according to a statement.
• Taiwan Defence Ministry says in the past 24 hours, 12 Chinese military aircraft were detected operating around Taiwan (vs 12 in the prior 24 hours), according to Reuters.

US Event calendar

• 08:30: July Durable Goods Orders, est. 4.9%, prior -6.7%
  • July Durables Less Transportation, est. 0%, prior 0.4%
  • July Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.9%
  • July Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:30: Aug. Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -16.0, prior -17.5

Central Bank speakers

• 14:00: Fed’s Daly on BTV

By Dave Huber of The College Fix

A Pennsylvania teacher who was fired for allegedly attending the U.S. Capitol “insurrection” on January 6, 2021, has won a wrongful termination lawsuit after a two-week trial.

Jason Moorehead, a 17-year veteran social studies instructor in the Allentown School District, had always maintained he was “at all times over a mile away” at the Washington Monument when the riot occurred.

But on Jan. 7, the district issued a news release stating a district employee “was involved in the electoral college protest.” In it, Superintendent Thomas Parker did note the district “has an obligation to respect the First Amendment rights of our staff.”

District Solicitor John Freund also had said “only after knowing all the facts” could the district act in a manner that “balances First Amendment rights with the higher standards set for public school teachers.”

These standards include “teachers’ duty not to participate in or advocate un-American or subversive doctrines.”

Lehigh Valley News.com reports the district also “saw [Moorehead’s] light-hearted comments” on social media about the happenings at the Capitol.

For example, in response to a post which said “Don’t worry everyone, the Capitol is insured,” Moorehead wrote “This!” The remark is a reference to those who said the same thing about the most destructive riots in U.S. history following the killing of George Floyd.

Although Moorehead wasn’t specifically named in the district statement, “outraged members of the public soon identified him” as the alleged culprit. Some posted Moorehead’s picture and home address on social media.

On X (then Twitter), the account CROH Lehigh Valley (the first four letters standing for “Community Research Opposing Hate”) posted that Moorehead “was identified as an attendee of the J6 Capitol coup attempt” and that “his presence is enough reason for him to never teach #Allentown students ever again.”

It added “Students cannot be safe in a classroom with a fascist.”

It’s been 75 days since @AllentownSD *social studies* teacher Jason Moorehead was identified as an attendee of the J6 Capitol coup attempt. His presence is enough reason for him to never teach #Allentown students ever again. Students cannot be safe in a classroom with a fascist. pic.twitter.com/JTPzxyngMs

— CROH Lehigh Valley (@crohlv) March 23, 2021

During the investigation, Moorehead was “questioned extensively” by district officials where, again, he insisted he was nowhere near the Capitol.

At the trial, the district claimed it had “attempted” to reinstate Moorehead — as long as he took a “cultural sensitivity” course. Moorehead refused, alleging the district had “created an unsafe, hostile work environment.”

He then was terminated.

Moorehead filed suit claiming the district and several school board members had violated his civil rights (“for besmirching his name” due to his conservative political leanings) and for illegally suspending him based on the teachers union collective bargaining agreement.

On Aug. 16, a jury awarded Moorehead $131,500, most of which will come from the district. Two school board members, Lisa Conover and Nancy Wilt, are liable for $6,000 and $500 respectively.

Moorehead had not specified a desired dollar amount for “loss of earnings, loss of career, reputational damage, mental and emotional pain and suffering,” and punitive damages.

Moorehead’s lawyer AJ Fleuhr said in statement that he and his client were happy “a federal jury recognized that the Allentown School District violated Jason Moorehead’s First Amendment rights to free speech, assembly, and political affiliation,” and that the named board members had “maliciously and wantonly attacked him.”

Fleuhr added “There was never any justification for [the district’s] insidious and Orwellian course of action.”

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Almost everything you see and hear with the Lying Legacy Media and the government is a lie. 

Just this past week, the Biden Administration backtracked about employment as it was widely reported, “US economy added 818,000 fewer jobs than first reported in year that ended in March.”  A huge miss or a huge lie – take your pick. 

Other big lies we have been told in recent years:  “Trump is colluding with Russia,” “Hunter Biden’s laptop is Russian disinformation, and the “CV19 vax injections are “safe and effective.” 

That is just scratching the surface of the lies we are told on a daily basis.  The lies, which people realize are becoming preposterous, are adding to the public’s lack of confidence in everything, including the economy. 

Martin Armstrong says, “We are in a period of great uncertainty. . .. When people are uncertain, they don’t spend.  They save.  That’s what happens in a depression and a recession…”

“So, if you have no confidence in the future because of all this crazy stuff going on, what do you do?  You don’t borrow, and you pull back and say let me see what is going to happen.”

Armstrong says another big lie told to the public is the approval rating of Kamala Harris. 

The so-called polls say Harris is running neck and neck with Donald Trump in the presidential race.  Don’t believe it.  Armstrong says a recent data dive on his Socrates computer program shows:

“Kamala’s approval rating came in around 10.5 %.  

(A second confidential source says Kamala’s approval rating is 8.5%.)  Confidence in government is 7%.  So, how can Kamala possibly be 40%, 50% and 60%?  It’s illogical…

The polls are really propaganda at this point.  They were propaganda back in 2016.  They all said Hillary would win, and she would sweep Trump under the carpet.”

On news RFK Jr. suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump, Armstrong says,

“I was always pushing RFK Jr. to be Attorney General.  I think I got his eyes to light up when I said if you take the Attorney General job, you could even indict Pfizer.” 

Armstrong says the Trump camp is seriously considering RFK Jr. for AG, and Armstrong says he has been in contact with top Trump advisors. 

We will see, but we do know RFK Jr. is going to be a part of Trump’s Administration.

On Trump winning in November, Armstrong says, “Look, the computer says Trump should win.  I don’t know how the hell they allow that to happen..”

“They have to trap Trump into a war or they kill him, one or the other.  These people are unconscionable…

We are looking at serious civil unrest regardless of who wins in November.  Neither side is going to accept it.”

On gold at $2,500 an ounce, Armstrong says it’s not about inflation, it is about the fear of a US debt default.  This is why central banks are buying.  Armstrong says,

“If there is a big war, the US will default on it’s debt. . .. I am very concerned they will start WWIII before the end of the year and maybe by September.”

There is much more in the 54-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis about unpayable global debt, world war and the 2024 Election for 8.24.24.

*  *  *

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

If you want to attend Armstrong’s 2024 World Economic Conference in Olando, FL, Nov. 8, 9 & 10, 2024, or register for streaming of the event, click here. There is free information, analysis and articles on ArmstrongEconomics.com.

By Luke Bouma of Cordcutternews

For about a year now, Disney has been building a free streaming service inside its ABC app, which is full of free content and live channels along with content behind a paywall. Now, Disney has notified users that on September 23, 2024, it will be shutting down its ABC app.

The ABC app had over 20 free channels full of content dedicated to many Disney-owned properties, including ESPN.

There is no official word yet on where the content will be moving, but there have been reports that Disney+ will be adding live channels to its app. It would seem very likely that Disney will move the content on the ABC app over to the Disney+ app to help it attract new subscribers.

According to the Wall Street Journal sources familiar with the plans, Disney plans to overhaul the Disney+ app. This change will leverage personalized promotional art tailored to individual tastes and viewing history, send email reminders about programs, and enhance its recommendation algorithm. These moves aim to surface content that users are more likely to enjoy, making it easier to find their next binge-watch.

Perhaps the biggest change will be the introduction of 24/7 live channels dedicated to popular shows. This concept, similar to Pluto TV’s model, has proven successful in capturing viewers who prefer just want to turn on the TV and watch something. While this was initially reported by The Information in May, it has now been confirmed by The Wall Street Journal.

Disney joins a growing number of cable TV networks that are shutting down their dedicated apps to instead focus on their subscription services like Max and Paramount+. This is a trend that will likely see other cable networks and maybe even broadcast TV networks shut down their dedicated apps to try and grow subscribers to their paid services.

By Sarah Prentice of Campus Reform

Cornell University is set to offer a course on ecological justice from feminist, queer, and trans perspectives.

The Ivy League school will teach a “Ecological Justice: Feminist, Queer, and Trans Perspectives” class that will present “an in-depth study of ecological justice from feminist, queer, and trans perspectives.”

The course claims it will unpack how these “marginalized” groups have “led environmental movements and ecological theorizing around the globe,” as well as draw on the “traditions of ecofeminism, racial justice, queer and trans ecology, and disability theory” to show how these perspectives have “reshaped environmental ethics.”

The course description also alleges: “Historically, people marginalized by race, gender, sexuality, disability, and poverty have borne the brunt of environmental degradation.”

The course will be taught by Perry Zurn, a society fellow at Cornell University. Zurn is also a Provost Associate Professor of Philosophy at American University, and affiliate faculty in the Department of Critical Race, Gender, and Culture Studies. 

Zurn specializes in researching political philosophy, critical theory, and trans studies, and also collaborates in psychology and neuroscience.

Cornell offers other courses from an LGBTQ+ perspective. The university is set to offer “Queer Classics” in the Fall of 2024, for example.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

What starts in California and Minnesota is guaranteed to not stay in California and Minnesota if you vote for Harris.

“Liberated” Studies Hit Minnesota

Beginning in kindergarten, the state’s schoolchildren will be indoctrinated in radical racial ideology.

The Wall Street Journal reports Tim Walz Brings ‘Liberated’ Ethnic Studies to Minnesota

Tim Walz was a schoolteacher before entering politics, so what is his approach to teaching? The Minnesota Department of Education will soon release the initial version of a document that lays out how new “liberated” ethnic-studies requirements will be implemented in the state’s roughly 500 public-school districts and charter schools.

Mr. Walz signed the law establishing this initiative in 2023. The department’s standards and benchmarks, approved in January, require first-graders to “identify examples of ethnicity, equality, liberation and systems of power” and “use those examples to construct meanings for those terms.”

Fourth-graders must “identify the processes and impacts of colonization and examine how discrimination and the oppression of various racial and ethnic groups have produced resistance movements.” High-school students are told to “develop an analysis of racial capitalism” and “anti-Blackness” and are taught to view themselves as members of “racialized hierarchies” based on “dominant European beauty standards.”

The Walz administration has relied on committed political activists to design and guide implementation of the state’s education agenda. One of them is Brian Lozenski, an associate professor of urban and multicultural education at Macalester College in St. Paul and a leader and a founding organizer of Education for Liberation Minnesota, or EdLib MN, a group that aims to “be a political force” in Minnesota and “contend with the status quo of colonial education that prioritizes Eurocentric curricula.

The St. Paul course makes “resistance” to America’s fundamental institutions a central theme. It instructs 16-year-olds to “build” a race- and ethnicity-based “narrative of transformative resistance” and to “challenge and expose” “systems of inequality.” It tells them to “resist all systems of oppressive power rooted in racism through collective action and change.” Accompanying artwork, labeled “seeds of resistance,” features protest signs that read “No Bans/No Walls” and “Abolish Prison.”

Minnesota’s experience with this radical restructuring of its public education system may give Americans a picture of what the nation as a whole could soon face.

A Beauty from EdLib MN

Things Kindergarteners Need to Study

• Use economic models and reasoning and data analysis to construct an argument and propose a solution related to an economic question. Evaluate the impact of the proposed solution on various communities that would be affected.

• Apply economic concepts and models to develop individual and collective financial goals and strategies for achieving these goals, taking into consideration historical and contemporary conditions that either inhibit or advance the creation of individual and generational wealth.

• Ask historical questions about context, change and continuity in order to identify and analyze dominant and nondominant narratives about the past.

• Analyze the ways power and language construct the social identities of race, religion, geography, ethnicity, and gender. Apply these understandings to one’s own social identities and other groups living in Minnesota, centering those whose stories and histories have been marginalized, erased, or ignored.

• Describe how individuals and communities have fought for freedom and liberation against systemic and coordinated exercises of power locally and globally. Identify strategies or times that have resulted in lasting change. Organize with others to engage in activities that could further the rights and dignity of all.

• Use ethnic and Indigenous studies methods and sources in order to understand the roots of contemporary systems of oppression and apply lessons from the past that could eliminate historical and contemporary injustices.

Things First Graders Need to Study

• Investigate a variety of historical sources by: a) analyzing primary and secondary sources; b) identifying perspectives and narratives that are absent from the available sources; and c) interpreting the historical context, intended audience, purpose, and author’s point of view of these sources.

• Integrate evidence from multiple historical sources and interpretations into a reasoned argument or compelling narrative about the past.

• Analyze the ways power and language construct the social identities of race, religion, geography, ethnicity, and gender. Apply these understandings to one’s own social identities and other groups living in Minnesota, centering those whose stories and histories have been marginalized, erased, or ignored.

Things Fourth Graders Need to Study

• Explain and evaluate processes, rules and laws of United States governmental institutions at local, state and federal levels and within Tribal Nations.

• Use economic models and reasoning and data analysis to construct an argument and propose a solution related to an economic question. Evaluate the impact of the proposed solution on various communities that would be affected.

• Analyze how scarcity and artificial shortages force individuals, organizations, communities, and governments to make choices and incur opportunity costs. Analyze how the decisions of individuals, organizations, communities, and governments affect economic equity and efficiency. [Mish comment: There’s your pro-socialism and price-gouging indoctrination]

• Evaluate how government actions affect a nation’s economy and individuals’ well-being within an economy. [More socialism if not outright communism]

• Describe places and regions, explaining how they are influenced by power structures. [Excluding of course the indoctrination taught]

• Analyze the ways power and language construct the social identities of race, religion, geography, ethnicity, and gender. Apply these understandings to one’s own social identities and other groups living in Minnesota, centering those whose stories and histories have been marginalized, erased, or ignored.[Massive DEI campaign]

The above snips are from a 109 page “American Experiment” Standards and Benchmarks document for Minnesota.

I stopped at grade 4. I couldn’t take anymore.

Glenn Youngkin Lesson

It is discussion of education, and only education, that propelled Glenn Youngkin to gubernatorial victory in Blue Virginia.

Instead of talking about DEI, indoctrination, inflation, and the border, Trump is attacking Pocahontas, offering ridiculous freebees in competition with Harris without saying how he will pay for them, and let’s be honest (running a pathetic campaign).

If you are cheering playground name calling, then you are part of the problem.

Trump won in 2016 (by a small margin), because Hillary was equally obnoxious and because of a last minute gift from then-FBI Director James Comey reopened the agency’s investigation into her private email server just days before the 2016 election.

Trump lost in 2020 on the current path.

Trump and Hillary are alike. Neither will admit they are to blame for losing.

Don’t fool yourself. Polite stupidity, DEI, and extreme socialistic indoctrination could easily win again if Trump keeps marching down the path he is on.

People are sick of divisive politics, and rightfully so. Biden promised to be a moderate but was a Progressive wet dream candidate instead.

Trump promised less divisiveness and that lasted precisely one day.

Glenn Youngkin might have won in a landslide. Instead, Trump is currently behind because of his own doing.

Trump Would Rather Be Crass Than President

Trump would rather be crass than president. And many are with him on that. https://t.co/YFexDbNoCp

— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) August 23, 2024

Being crass will not bring an a single vote. Anyone cheering playground name calling is already voting for Trump.

Trump Seeks More Influence Over the Fed

On August 8, I commented Trump Seeks More Influence Over the Fed, a Really Stupid Idea

To understand why it’s stupid, ask yourself what would happen if Democrats get complete control again.

Trump Fires Arrows Missing the Target Badly

Also on August 8, I asked Trump Fires Arrows Missing the Target Badly, Will a Recession Save Him?

Trump’s strategy has gone from boring to shockingly bizarre and counterproductive. Does Trump think his opponent is Brian Kemp or Kamala Harris? What about recession? Walz?

Trump Lets Harris Get Away With Nonsense

Harris is pretending to be a moderate and Trump is letting her get away with it.

If Trump won’t talk about inflation, indoctrination, and his vision of the future instead of his alleged past greatness, then who will?

Harris and the media are very pleased with this aspect of Trump campaign because it allows Harris to stay in hiding.

All I can do is suggest that if you don’t want your kids to be part of an “American Experiment” indoctrination of DEI and socialism, then you need to abandon Harris no matter how crass Trump appears.

Also, ask yourself what would happen if Democrats get complete control.

Very Serious Setup

This is a very serious setup. But if you offend enough people, anger and misplaced hope can easily overrule common sense.

Yet, many Republicans are happy with the Trump campaign. I’m not. Trump’s best hope is a recession will bail him out.

I predict a recession but I don’t know if it will be strong enough.

Improving the McKelvey Recession Indicator

On August 20, I commented Improving the McKelvey Recession Indicator, No False Negative or Positive Signals

Adding the job vacancy rate to the McKelvey (Claudia Sahm) recession signal eliminates false negatives and false positives, and provides a much faster signal than Sahm.

I note that since 1953, every time the economy was in the current state, the economy was in recession.

That does not make the odds 100 percent because everything is up to the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions.

My recession post is on the complicated side, but please check it out.

Also note that the BLS Revises Jobs Down by 818,000 the Most Ever, About 68,000 Per Month

Do I get to say I told you so? My advance estimate a month ago was 779,000 lower. Bloomberg estimated 730,000.