Ukraine Should Join NATO Even If Russia Occupies Its Land, Czech President Says

Ukraine Should Join NATO Even If Russia Occupies Its Land, Czech President Says

Czech President Petr Pavel has issued a new statement which seeks to pressure NATO to speed up Ukraine’s admission into the Western military alliance. Most analysts consider that Ukraine’s accession will take years, possibly even decades, given of course that there is an active hot war unfolding in the country.

Pavel is calling for Ukraine to join NATO even if it doesn’t retake all of its territory. He says the alliance shouldn’t be overly concerned that it is ground zero of an ongoing conflict with Russia. “I don’t think that full restoration of control over the entire territory is a prerequisite,” Pavel told Czech newspaper Novinky a Právo.

“If there is a demarcation, even an administrative border, then we can treat this administrative border as temporary and accept Ukraine into NATO in the territory it will control at that time,” he added.

Czech Republic’s President Petr Pavel, via AP

He cited as an example West Germany, which was allowed to joint NATO in 1955, before it ultimately was able to unify with Soviet-held East Germany in 1990.

“Although part of Germany was occupied by the Soviet Union … the rest was accepted into NATO,” the Czech leader said.

“So I think that there is both technically and a legal solution to allow Ukraine to join NATO without bringing NATO into conflict with the Russian Federation.”

But this still ignores the fact the Article 5 means Ukraine’s entry into NATO would automatically trigger a major war, requiring the alliance’s 32 member countries to rush to the fight with Russia. Below is what the article 5 common defense clause says in full:

Article 5

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

Yet even now, despite Ukraine not being a member, NATO has been sucked ever deeper into the conflict through the constant providing of more sophisticated weapons, including main battle tanks and F-16s, but also advisers and intelligence officers.

Use of Western weapons in the war grows riskier as US-supplied HIMARS now pummel Russia’s Kursk region…

The Kremlin too already views it this way – that NATO is increasingly a direct party to the war. President Putin has even warned that should F-16s supplied to Kiev begin conducting missions from external airbases outside Ukraine, these bases are fair game for potential attack by Moscow forces, even if they are in NATO territory.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/23/2024 – 04:15

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“It’s Not OK Any More”: UK Free Speech Crack-Down Targets “Extremist Ideologies”

“It’s Not OK Any More”: UK Free Speech Crack-Down Targets “Extremist Ideologies”

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The crackdown on free speech continues in the United Kingdom as officials use recent rioting to justify a roundup of citizens who they view as “pushing harmful and hateful beliefs.”

The government is ramping up arrests of those with “extremist ideologies” in the latest wave of arrests. 

The crackdown includes those accused of misogynist views.

In my book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I discuss how difficult it is to get a free people to give up freedoms. They have to be afraid, very afraid.

For that reason, governments tend to attack free speech during periods of public anger or fear.

That pattern is playing out, yet again, in the United Kingdom.

The recent anti-immigration riots have given officials a renewed opportunity to use anti-free speech laws to target those with opposing views.

For years, I have been writing about the decline of free speech in the United Kingdom and the steady stream of arrests.

A man was convicted for sending a tweet while drunk referring to dead soldiers.

Another was arrested for an anti-police t-shirt. 

Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” 

Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” 

A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a “cult.”

Last year, Nicholas Brock, 52, was convicted of a thought crime in Maidenhead, Berkshire.

The neo-Nazi was given a four-year sentence for what the court called his “toxic ideology” based on the contents of the home he shared with his mother in Maidenhead, Berkshire.

While most of us find Brock’s views repellent and hateful, they were confined to his head and his room.

Yet, Judge Peter Lodder QC dismissed free speech or free thought concerns with a truly Orwellian statement:

“I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness.”

Lodder lambasted Brock for holding Nazi and other hateful values:

“[i]t is clear that you are a right-wing extremist, your enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology is demonstrated by the graphic and racist iconography which you have studied and appeared to share with others…”

Even though Lodder agreed that the defendant was older, had limited mobility, and “there was no evidence of disseminating to others,” he still sent him to prison for holding extremist views.

After the sentencing Detective Chief Superintendent Kath Barnes, Head of Counter Terrorism Policing South East (CTPSE), warned others that he was going to prison because  he “showed a clear right-wing ideology with the evidence seized from his possessions during the investigation….We are committed to tackling all forms of toxic ideology which has the potential to threaten public safety and security.”

“Toxic ideology” also appears to be the target of Ireland’s proposed Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) law. It covers the possession of material deemed hateful. The law is a free speech nightmare.  The law makes it a crime to possess “harmful material” as well as “condoning, denying or grossly trivialising genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes against peace.” The law expressly states the intent to combat “forms and expressions of racism and xenophobia by means of criminal law.”

The Brock case proved, as feared, a harbinger of what was to come.

The home secretary, Yvette Cooper, has vowed to crack down on people “pushing harmful and hateful beliefs.” That includes what she calls extreme misogyny.

Cooper said that the problem revealed by the recent protests was “gaps in the current system” and stressed that “it’s not OK any more to ignore the massive growing threat caused by online hatred towards women and for us to ignore it because we’re worried about the line, rather than making sure the line is in the right place as we would do with any other extremist ideology.”

She added:

 “For too long governments have failed to address the rise in extremism, both online and on our streets, and we’ve seen the number of young people radicalised online grow. Hateful incitement of all kinds fractures and frays the very fabric of our communities and our democracy.”

For free speech advocates, it is chilling to hear UK officials state that they have been too lax on free speech in the past and must now take censorship and arrests more aggressively.

The United Kingdom has a myriad of laws criminalizing speech with vague terms allowing for arbitrary enforcement. For example, Public Order Act 1986 prohibits any expressions of racial hatred, defined as hatred against a group of persons by reason of the group’s color, race, nationality (including citizenship) or ethnic or national origins.

Section 18 of the Act specifically includes any speech that is “threatening, abusive, or insulting.” An arrest does not have to be based on a showing of intent to “stir up racial hatred,” but can merely be based on a charge that “having regard to all the circumstances racial hatred is likely to be stirred up thereby.”

For those Americans who have remained silent during as this anti-free speech movement grows, you need only to look to the United Kingdom to see what this movement means for our “indispensable right.”

That wave has now reached our shores and it will require each one of us to defend a right that defines us all.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage” (Simon & Schuster).

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/23/2024 – 03:30

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The Monkeypox Epidemic… In Africa

The Monkeypox Epidemic… In Africa

On August 14, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an international public health emergency in response to a surge in cases of mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, particularly on the African continent.

The cause is a new strain, Clade Ib, which is feared to be highly transmissible.

It is a different variant from the one that caused the 2022 epidemic in many previously non-endemic countries (Clade IIb, still present in several parts of the world).

While one case of infection (Clade Ib) was reported in Sweden last week, and the WHO has indicated that it expects more cases on European soil in the coming weeks, the epidemic is currently mainly concentrated in Africa.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck details in the following infographic, based on data from the African Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the Democratic Republic of Congo currently has the highest number of suspected or confirmed cases on the continent: almost 18,000 cases were recorded there between January 1 and August 16, and 535 people lost their lives over the same period.

Infographic: The Mpox Epidemic in Africa | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Four clades of the virus have now been identified in Africa (Clade Ia, Clade Ib, Clade IIa, Clade IIb).

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/23/2024 – 02:45

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Kiev’s Plan To Ban The Ukrainian Orthodox Church Shows How Insecure It Is About National Identity

Kiev’s Plan To Ban The Ukrainian Orthodox Church Shows How Insecure It Is About National Identity

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Kiev hates that a significant share of the population refuses to conform with the “negative nationalism” that they’ve aggressively enforced upon them since 2014 by continuing to worship at the Ukrainian Orthodox Churches’ sites instead of the government-backed Orthodox Church of Ukraine’s.

The Rada passed a law earlier this week for banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) by the middle of next year if it doesn’t sever all ties with the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC). Kiev has accused the UOC of being under the ROC’s sway even though the UOC declared full autonomy from the ROC in early 2022. The authorities envisage replacing the UOC with the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) that was controversially recognized as autocephalous by the Ecumenical Patriarchy in 2019.  

Readers can learn more about this complicated subject in RT’s detailed article from last August about “The Last Crusade: How the conflict between Russia and the West has fueled a major split in the Orthodox Christian Church”. All that’s sufficient for average folks to know though is that the OCU is part of post-2014 Ukraine’s Western-backed efforts to craft an anti-Russian national identity, which includes restricting Russian-language rights and arbitrarily persecuting those who still speak it in public.

Putin’s magnum opus from summer 2021 “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” is worth reading for those who’d like to understand how Ukraine’s separate, though originally not radically anti-Russian, identity came to be. In brief, it was largely the result of the erstwhile Kievan Rus’ collapse, after which its heartland that’s nowadays known as Ukraine fell under Lithuanian and then Polish influence. This was then followed by some Austrian, Imperial German, Nazi, and now American influences too.

Throughout the centuries, linguistic differences developed between the indigenous inhabitants from this part of that former civilization-state and its northeastern reaches from where the future Russian Empire emerged, and these paired with different historical experiences to form a separate Ukrainian identity. Instead of celebrating its closeness with Russia’s due to their shared roots, ultra-nationalists became hellbent on exaggerating and even manufacturing differences in order to form a “negative nationalism”.

What’s meant by this is that Ukrainian identity, both on its own due to some local demagogues but also especially as a result of the aforementioned foreign influences, came to be defined by how different it supposedly is from Russia’s. That trend turned Ukraine and those of its people who adhered to this particular form of identity into foreign powers’ geopolitical proxies against Russia, with the associated process unprecedentedly accelerating with American support in the aftermath of “EuroMaidan”.

To be clear, Putin isn’t against a separate Ukrainian identity per se as proven by what he wrote in his magnum opus about this:

“Things change: countries and communities are no exception. Of course, some part of a people in the process of its development, influenced by a number of reasons and historical circumstances, can become aware of itself as a separate nation at a certain moment. How should we treat that? There is only one answer: with respect!”

He immediately added though that this newly formed identity mustn’t be weaponized against Russia, though that’s regrettably what happened with Ukraine’s. The latest example of this is the law that was described at the beginning of this analysis about banning the UOC by the middle of next year on the false pretext that it’s operating as the ROC’s proxy inside the country. The real reason, which the reader can now better understand after the preceding paragraphs’ worth of background, is Ukraine’s insecurity.

Its leaders hate that a significant share of the population refuses to conform with the “negative nationalism” that they’ve aggressively enforced upon them since 2014 with American support by continuing to worship at the UOC’s churches instead of the OCU’s. They accordingly suspect that their ideological mission hasn’t been anywhere near as successful as they’ve publicly presented it as being and fear that everything that they did over the past decade could be reversed if they lost power.

Basically, a large portion of Ukrainians don’t believe in obsessing over their identity differences with Russia, which doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re “pro-Russian” in a political sense but they’re also not ethnic Russophobes like the Azov Battalion is either. They might disapprove of the special operation while also disliking their post-2014 regime. These so-called “moderates” don’t want to fight for Ukraine against Russia, but they also don’t want to engage in sabotage against their government either.

Some might secretly hope that Russia overthrows Zelensky, but they’ve also reconciled themselves with living under him and his successors if that doesn’t happen. Their government considers them a threat precisely because they don’t hate Russia, which the authorities suspect is due to the UOC allegedly being under the ROC’s influence and therefore indoctrinating them with “Kremlin propaganda”. The reality though is that these people independently arrived at their views.

Nevertheless, Kiev is hellbent on destroying the UOC in order to then force those of its citizens who worship at its churches to do so at the OCU’s, from where they’d then be exposed to anti-Russian propaganda in the expectation that they’d eventually come to hate Russia. If this plan doesn’t succeed, then Kiev will remain paranoid that these “moderates” might one day be radicalized by their regime’s forcible conscription policy, deteriorating economic conditions, and “Kremlin propaganda” into rebelling.

What Zelensky and his clique can never accept is that these “moderates” embrace the original Ukrainian identity, which considers itself separate from Russia but still friendly with it, while their regime espouses the weaponized version that was artificially manufactured under demagogic and foreign influences. The very fact that the UOC remains the country’s largest in spite of everything that Kiev has done over the past decade proves how genuinely popular the “moderate” version is compared to the radical one.

Tyler Durden
Fri, 08/23/2024 – 02:00

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Defense Budget Talks Reignite Debate Over Military Draft For Women

Defense Budget Talks Reignite Debate Over Military Draft For Women

Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Provisions in the fiscal year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that would require women to register for the military draft, while carving out an exemption from serving in front-line roles, have sparked vigorous debate among combat veterans and enlisted personnel about the wisdom of such changes and their likely impact on the armed forces.

Female Marine recruits stand in line for lunch in the chow hall during boot camp at MCRD Parris Island, S.C., on Feb. 26, 2013. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) announced the filing of the bill, S. 4638, last month. On Aug. 1, the Senate Appropriations Committee voted unanimously, 28–0, to move its version forward for a full Senate vote in the near future. The House of Representatives approved its own version of the bill on June 13.

The 607-page bill authorizes topline funding of $911.8 billion for the military and contains a number of provisions aimed at improving military life. They include an increase in monthly pay for junior enlisted personnel, housing allowances for junior personnel on sea duty, extensions of bonus schemes that were set to expire, and making promotions that were subject to delays in Senate confirmation effective retroactively.

The bill also pushes back slightly against the efforts of the Biden administration, often through executive orders, to bring the military into line with diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) goals by amending the United States Code to forbid use of Department of Defense money and facilities for gender alteration surgeries.

In other ways, the bill dramatically widens the front of the Biden administration’s push for inclusivity and diversity by revising selective service requirements to include women.

Subtitle J of the bill reads, “The committee recommends a series of provisions that would require women to register for selective service under the same conditions as currently applied to men.”

Section 529B of the bill contains an exemption that would, in theory, limit the impact of the proposed change.

It states, “The committee recommends a provision that would specify that women drafted into service under the Selective Service System may not be compelled to join combat roles that were closed to women prior to December 3, 2015, train or become qualified in a combat arms military occupational specialty, or join a combat arms unit.”

This stipulation notwithstanding, members of the military community are sharply divided on what effect the bill will have if passed in its current form.

Upholding Standards

The impact of gender integration on physical fitness requirements and standards in the military has been a source of controversy for years.

Even after President Barack Obama’s Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter, announced in December 2015, that previously all-male combat positions would be open to women, the number of women seeking entry to the Marine Corps was small and the number who passed fitness tests was even smaller.

Members of the U.S. Naval Academy Class of 2023 complete squad combat course training as part of a program to transition the candidates from civilian to military life, in Annapolis, Md., on Aug. 1, 2019. ENS Marion Bautista/Released/U.S. Navy

As of August 2017, nearly two years after Carter declared the far-reaching policy change, fewer than one percent of female inductees into the corps sought out combat roles, and of the number who did, only 25 percent met the physical requirements, according to a Marine Times report citing Training and Education command data. Fully 96 percent of male Marines who took the same tests passed, the report said. Those women who did not pass had to seek out noncombat roles.

Given these realities, and the exemption from combat roles in the new NDAA bill, some observers do not see the change to the selective service criteria as especially significant.

“There are plenty of noncombat and support roles in the U.S. military, and expanding the draft to include women does not mean putting women in the infantry or the Rangers,” Keith Naughton, the principal of Silent Majority Strategies, a Germantown, Maryland-based consultancy, told The Epoch Times.

“When conservatives slap the DEI label on everything they don’t like, it loses its effect and makes it more difficult to stop the growth of DEI where it matters.”

Recruitment Challenges

The danger of aggression from Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, various terrorist groups, and other hostile powers pushes the Department of Defense to ensure a large enough military to protect American interests.

In fiscal year 2023, the Department of Defense missed its recruitment goals by no fewer than 41,000 personnel.

“The Military Services continue to face unprecedented recruiting challenges,” the department’s recruiting and retention report for the year ending in May 2023 states.

As interest in national service dwindles among the younger population, the danger of an understaffed military incapable of carrying out its functions grows, said Scott McQuarrie, a former officer in both the Army and the Judge Advocate General’s Corps, who now works as an attorney.

A police officer stands near a military recruitment center in New York’s Times Square on July 26, 2017. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

We must have a sufficiently sized, adequately trained and equipped military in order to deter potential adversaries from drawing us into what would be a devastating conflict or, in the event of a conflict, to protect and defend the homeland and our national security interests,” McQuarrie told The Epoch Times.

“If we cannot fill the ranks with volunteers and/or afford a volunteer force, what are the alternatives? The American people must answer that difficult question,” he said.

McQuarrie said trying to maintain military readiness while relying exclusively on the pool of young men who volunteer for service might lead to an unpalatable outcome: lowering the standards and requirements for male inductees.

The armed forces took such a course during the Vietnam War under Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara in a program known as Project 100,000. McQuarrie described Project 100,000 as nothing short of a disaster for the military and the country.

He suggested that drafting a small number of women to serve in noncombat roles could be one way to address the personnel shortfall and maintain the highest standards for men who do take on frontline combat roles.

U.S. Navy Hospital Corpsmen practice running an IV line during a medical response team training aboard the hospital ship USNS Comfort. U.S. Navy via Getty Images

“I believe the political climate today is conducive to addressing these questions, but it will happen only if enough leaders have the political will and moral courage to put the issues on the table for the American people to discuss and decide,” McQuarrie said.

Maintaining Cohesion

Others who are familiar with the realities of training and combat are sober about the practical challenges of upholding standards while incorporating larger numbers of women into the armed forces.

If the NDAA passes in its current form, it is not impossible to envision a near future where more women seek entry to—and are granted—frontline combat roles.

But given time-tested differences between the sexes’ physical aptitudes, this is all but certain to require adjusting physical standards, they say.

“I think the message that citizenship sometimes comes with an obligation to one’s country is an entirely healthy message to send to both sexes, not just young men,” Sebastian Junger, a journalist and documentarian who spent years embedded with U.S. forces in combat zones in Afghanistan, told The Epoch Times.

But there can be no illusions about the arduous nature of frontline duty and the immense physical exertions it involves, he stressed. Junger drew an analogy between the U.S. military and fire departments, which are subject to calls for diversification, often from people who have never been firefighters themselves.

“Combat, like firefighting, is incredibly rigorous and demanding, and efforts to integrate fire departments with women have found themselves at a kind of crossroads. Do you scale down the physical requirements in order to get more women into firehouses, or keep the number of pull-ups you have to do exactly the same and have virtually no women passing?” he said.

Read more here…

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/22/2024 – 23:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/0A1m43n Tyler Durden

America’s Energy Divide: How Democrats And Republicans Feel

America’s Energy Divide: How Democrats And Republicans Feel

Energy and climate issues have long been a point of division in American politics, with Democrats generally believing in investing in renewable energy sources while Republicans are more supportive of expanding energy production more broadly, including the use of fossil fuels and nuclear energy.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist’s Kayla Zhu, shows the portion of Democrat (and Democrat-leaning) and Republican (and Republican-leaning) U.S. adults who favor expanding various energy sources in the United States.

The figures come from a Pew Research Center survey of over 8,500 U.S. adults conducted in May 2024.

Which Energy Sources Do Democrats and Republicans Support?

Nuclear energy has the smallest partisan gap out of any energy source (18 percentage points). Around two-thirds of Republicans support expanding nuclear energy compared to roughly half of Democrats.

In total, 56% of U.S. adults surveyed are supportive of expanding nuclear power in America.

Democrats are far more supportive of expanding renewable energy sources like solar and wind compared to Republicans, while Republicans are more supportive of fossil fuels like oil and coal.

Coal mining has the greatest partisan gap at 48 percentage points, with only 16% of Democrats favoring coal expansion compared to 64% of Republicans.

2024 U.S. Presidential Candidates’ Energy Policies

This energy divide is reflected in the 2024 presidential candidates’ positions on energy policy, which largely fall along party lines.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump has vowed to issue rapid approvals for nuclear power plants, while focusing on energy independence and stopping energy-based inflation through increased fossil fuel use.

Democrat candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris has historically been a strong supporter of transitioning to clean energy and was a early co-sponsor of the Green New Deal when she was a senator.

Energy isn’t the only topic Democrats and Republicans are divided on. Check out this graphic to see how the two parties feel about industries like mining, oil and gas, higher education, news media, and more.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/22/2024 – 23:00

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Vo-Tech Education Is Taking Off, And It’s Not Your Dad’s Shop Class Anymore

Vo-Tech Education Is Taking Off, And It’s Not Your Dad’s Shop Class Anymore

Authored by Vince Bielski via RealClearInvestigations,

Jon Graft is on a mission to reignite the passion for learning by pushing a long-denigrated  classroom practice: vocational education.

The superintendent of the Butler Tech District of high schools in Ohio is a leader in the growing movement to revive public education, marred by low test scores and high absenteeism, through a hands-on approach to learning that prepares students for careers in today’s tech-driven economy. Traditionally a means of funneling disadvantaged kids into outdated shop classes and dead-end jobs, vocational education is being reimagined by Graft and others in sophisticated career and technical education (CTE) programs nationwide, offering high school students of all academic abilities training in healthcare, computer science, engineering, skilled trades, and even the arts.

Butler Tech and other state-of-the-art CTE programs strive to keep students engaged with career-relevant coursework, apprenticeships, and internships, giving them direction and excitement about their futures. “We are changing the mindset of our communities,” Graft said. “They see that CTE is the way public education should be delivered to all high school students, not just a narrow demographic. It leads to a much higher trajectory in life, whether they go off to university or directly into the workforce.”

Big ideas to improve public education come and go like the flu, but CTE has established a notable track record, boosting student engagement, graduation rates, employment outcomes, and income, according to several studies. Butler Tech’s graduation rate of 98% is well above the average for Ohio and the nation, with 64% of graduates enrolling in two- and four-year colleges and other training.

As a new school year begins, the results explain why Butler Tech and programs in Connecticut and other states have waitlists while many traditional schools struggle to fill seats. Despite the demand, advocates say, programs are struggling to expand because the traditional school system continues to underfund CTE. Parrticularly in many wealthier districts, school leaders still consider career training as a less worthy Plan B for students who can’t handle the rigors of college. 

The views of families, however, are changing. CTE is part of an ongoing sea change in education, which has seen a decade-long decline in college enrollment, particularly in the liberal arts. Some education scholars question the wisdom of having high schoolers focus on careers rather than the fundamental truths found in Great Books. But families that are switching to CTE say there’s no greater truth than a good job. 

The soaring cost of college is helping drive the demand for career education. Families are rejecting the proposition that spending as much as $350,000 on a four-year degree is the only path to promising careers. Some CTE students have no desire to go to college and instead seek hands-on training in fields like manufacturing and auto repair that provide stable jobs. They prefer learning by doing, such as building an AI-powered robot, over reading a textbook about the birth of modern science in the 17th century. An increasing number of students are college-bound, using CTE to explore pathways in the biosciences and engineering to help make smarter financial decisions about their choice of universities and majors. 

In some places, CTE has been attracting a larger share of students who previously would have only taken conventional college preparatory coursework,” said Boston College’s Shaun Dougherty, a leading expert in the field. “They recognize that CTE is a chance to learn about applied pathways and can be a springboard to four-year colleges.”

That’s the case for Alliyah Newsome. Unhappy at her traditional high school, she transferred to Butler Tech near Cincinnati as a junior to figure out if nursing was the right path for her. 

Her human-body systems and patient-care classes in the school’s healthcare science program, one of 31 career areas of study, were valuable. But the clincher for Newsome was the field experience: working in a hospital in her junior year, obtaining a nurse’s aide credential and then getting a job immediately after graduation at the prominent Cincinnati Children’s Hospital. 

Newsome is now a nursing student at Miami University in Ohio with plans to get a master’s degree. “Butler confirmed for me that I want to become a nurse and spend thousands of dollars to get my degree,” she said. “This wouldn’t have happened without Butler.”

CTE’s Second-Class Status

The participation rate in CTE remains relatively low. In 2022, about 2.8 million secondary students, or 16% of the total, enrolled in a concentration of career courses, according to the U.S. Department of Education. Many students took these classes in their traditional high schools, which typically don’t offer the intensity and breadth of programs found in dedicated CTE centers like Butler Tech.

CTE advocates say the biggest challenge is that funding has not kept pace with demand. As many as 50% of all high schoolers would concentrate on CTE if more programs were available in their districts, estimates Catherine Imperatore, research and content director at the Association for Career and Technical Education. Her estimate is supported by a 2021 survey showing that 70% of Americans now have a positive view of vocational education.

Yet CTE remains on the sidelines because the traditional public school system continues to prioritize sending students to college, Imperatore says. The college-for-all mantra took hold in the 1980s as an idealistic response to the landmark “A Nation at Risk” report, which called for higher standards to fix the failing school system. 

Since then, soaring student debt has made the push for a four-year degree harder to justify. As of July, 43 million borrowers held more than $1.6 trillion in outstanding federal student loans, or double the amount in 2010, according to the Education Data Initiative. That averages about $37,000 per student, not a small sum for a 22-year-old college graduate.

In recent years, lawmakers have buttressed career education as the need for skilled employees grows in healthcare, manufacturing, and other industries. New laws aim to improve the uneven quality of programs, requiring districts to report on student performance and making work-based learning, an essential piece of CTE, more accessible and credit-bearing. 

But direct federal and state funding has only increased marginally over the last decade. Funding through the Perkins Act, the main source of federal support, has remained relatively flat since the 1990s and now sits at $1.44 billion, or about $100,000 per school district, enough to hire one or two teachers. When adjusted for inflation, the funding is below the 2004 level, according to Advance CTE, a non-profit that represents state leaders in the field. 

There’s always a push for increasing the investment,” said Emily Passias, the deputy executive director of Advance CTE. “We continue to see little baby-step increases over time that in no way outpaces the cost increases due to inflation.”

Most funding comes from states, which vary greatly in their support for career education. Although at least 27 states have boosted high school CTE funding in the last decade, the total investment was only $5.9 billion in 2022. That amounts to less than 1% of total state funding for K-12, well below the percentage of students who participate in career programs, according to the nonprofit group. 

A handful of states, including Maryland, Oregon, and Wisconsin, provide no direct continuous support, leaving it to districts to decide if they want to run programs, sometimes with the aid of state grants, according to an Advance CTE report. But districts find expanding career education is a tough sell in many communities where families want to protect college-prep programming.

School district budgets are typically a zero-sum game,” Boston College’s Dougherty said. “They have a fixed budget to work with. So choosing to add CTE programs invariably means cutting arts or world language programs. And that can be contentious.”

Ignite Pathways Takes Off

Ignite Pathways, a dedicated CTE school in Iowa, found a way to open in 2021 without the financial backing of nearby districts. Ignite rallied the support of rural Woodbine residents who wanted an alternative to traditional public education. They overwhelmingly passed a $3 million bond measure, and businesses in search of employees tossed in $9 million to help finance a new high-tech school building for Ignite. 

“These are hardworking people who want education to be more relevant to give students skills that quickly make them productive members of society,” said Ignite Superintendent Justin Wagner. “The potential for students to be adrift after high school is a concern.”

Like many CTE schools, Ignite operates hand-in-hand with local businesses. The school set up programs in aviation, healthcare, business, and agricultural science after a feasibility study showed that these industries needed employees. 

Students must take all the state-required core classes in math, English, and other subjects to graduate. But business leaders helped create new curricula that customized these courses to the needs of each program and also formed advisory committees to better link the school to the job market. 

Wagner says an even bigger challenge was overcoming inflexible federal regulations that undermined the exploration of different careers by forcing students to make long-term commitments to a single apprenticeship. “We have challenged the system at every turn on behalf of the kids,” said Wagner, who expects at least 50% of his students to engage in some form of work-based learning in the new school year. 

The superintendent says Ignite has given students a greater sense of purpose and self-direction, with about 60% of its graduates continuing their education at technical schools or colleges and 40% getting jobs. 

Jordan Kerger is one of them. While a junior at a traditional high school, Kerger says he felt pressure to go to college, but then he enrolled in Ignite’s aviation program, with coursework in the flying environment, aircraft systems, and a flight simulator to teach the basics of flying.

Kerger was hooked. Next came live flight lessons to get a private pilot’s license and then two commercial licenses. He did enroll at the University of Nebraska for a semester but found he wasn’t interested in non-aviation coursework. So he went to Florida to train as a flight instructor, which will help him accumulate enough flight time to become a commercial airline pilot, an in-demand profession. 

“Ignite gave me an early start right out of high school on what I really want to do, and that’s been great,” Kerger said. “I know others from school who still to this day don’t know what they want to do.”

CTE Waiting Lists Grow

In Oklahoma, career-based schools have to turn away hundreds of students like Kerger each year. The state is CTE-friendly, with a separate education department to oversee and fund its 29 dedicated centers, which also get support from traditional districts and local taxpayers. Yet at centers like Francis Tuttle, the waiting list to enroll is growing.

For the upcoming school year, Francis Tuttle will seat about 2,000 high school students and place 400 others on a waiting list even after recently expanding its automotive, medical, and cybersecurity programs and adding one for teacher preparation, says Superintendent Michelle Keylon. What’s also noteworthy is that most of the students are coming from wealthier suburbs, showing the changing demographics of CTE. Only about 40% of students are from low-income families, well below the state average. 

Keylon says the sky-high cost of a college degree has made Francis Tuttle a better option for many families with high-performing kids. While college used to be the default plan for 90% of students in the area, she says, now families focus on what their kids want to do after high school and the best way to get there. 

For college-bound students, Francis Tuttle lets them try out engineering, bioscience, and computer science to see what inspires them. Others opt for the school’s popular advanced manufacturing program, in which professionals from industries serve as guest lecturers and mentors and often offer students internships and jobs after graduation. 

Among recent Francis Tuttle graduates, 74% continued to post-secondary education, and 22% found jobs. “I would love more funding because we can see results from the programming we already have in place,” said Keylon. “But our politicians don’t think that all students need access to CTE, so they don’t provide enough funding.”

CTE schools in Massachusetts and other states are also producing strong results. Boston College’s Dougherty co-authored a large study of Connecticut’s 16 dedicated CTE high schools where students take several career-focused courses over four years. Researchers found “robust positive effects” for male students of different socioeconomic backgrounds and abilities. They were 10 percentage points more likely to graduate and had 44% higher total earnings after graduation compared to a control group. 

This year, a broader meta-analysis of CTE involving 28 studies across multiple states and types of programs also revealed benefits to students. Co-author Katherine Hughes of the CTE Research Network says their analysis showed large positive effects, particularly on high school graduation, two-year college enrollment, and employment, hammering home the point that CTE programs are a bright spot in the beleaguered public education system.

Where Career Ed Falls Short

To be sure, plenty of lackluster programs still exist that continue to give CTE a bad name. Researchers say some programs lack a sequence of courses that allow students to build skills in a particular field and don’t offer pathways that go beyond the basic trades. Others don’t provide work-based learning and connections to nearby college programs. 

In New York City, a hotbed of CTE, Dougherty found “considerable variation” in the quality of the dedicated schools. Two high schools offered fewer than 4 CTE credits, and six failed to provide work-based learning in at least one grade. 

Overall, CTE programs may be more than halfway in their evolution to providing a high-quality education,” said Hughes. 

Another concern is that the early focus on career skills denies students the chance to build more fundamental knowledge in math, science, and English that may be more helpful to their careers in the long term. CTE students fill their elective slots with career training rather than classes that develop basic analytical skills like classical philosophy or advanced math. 

The risk is that CTE students are less adaptable to significant changes in the labor market, says Eric Hanushek, a prominent scholar of the economics of education at the Hoover Institution. His research of apprenticeship programs in Europe found that graduates eventually dropped out of the labor market a few decades later when their skills were no longer in demand. 

“CTE makes the transition from high school to a job easier, but the concern is that they will have more difficulty adjusting to changes later in their careers,” Hanushek said. 

Career education, however, might be just what traditional high schools need to bring students back to the classrooms and motivate them, says Dougherty. The strong demand from families is perhaps the best sign that CTE can provide a much-needed fix.  

“The established evidence that CTE can engage students suggests that expanding high-quality programs could meet this need to reengage learners,” he said. 

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/22/2024 – 22:35

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/p5QzwKH Tyler Durden

Are Co-Ops Two Blocks From Central Park Really Selling For $174,000

Are Co-Ops Two Blocks From Central Park Really Selling For $174,000

That does, in fact seem to be the case. The city of New York is selling apartments on the Upper West Side, two blocks from the park, for as low as $173,801, according to a new report from Bloomberg.

There are seventeen studio and one-bedroom units in a pre-war walk-up with hardwood floors and air conditioning, according to the report. They will be sold via lottery to New Yorkers earning under 120% of the area’s median income and with assets under $280,000.

The deadline to apply is August 27 and so far over 10,000 people have applied. 

The Upper West Side building on West 80th Street is near the American Museum of Natural History, Zabar’s, and the subway. Nearby, a four-bedroom condo is listed at $7.8 million, while studios start at nearly half a million dollars.

Photo: Bloomberg

One woman who walked by to check out the building said: “It seems too good to be true. This is almost what I bought my house for in 1991.”

Bloomberg reported that for the West 80th Street building, households of two earning up to $149,160 or three earning up to $167,760 can apply for a one-bedroom unit. The apartment must be the buyer’s primary residence, with a 5% down payment required and resale restrictions in place.

NYC Housing Connect’s lottery allows eligible applicants to apply once per development. The program includes buildings on city-owned land or those benefiting from affordable housing subsidies or tax exemptions, the article notes. 

Units are priced as low as $340 per square foot, a bargain compared to Manhattan and cities like Austin and Santa Monica. The city is also raffling homes in high-end areas like Hudson Yards, with two-bedroom rentals at $3,861 per month for families of four earning up to $194,125, as well as properties in Astoria and the Upper East Side.

The Department of Housing Preservation and Development placed a record 9,550 households into affordable units last year. Mayor Eric Adams is pushing for more residential construction, including 7,000 new homes in the Bronx through rezoning.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/22/2024 – 22:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/VtZYGw4 Tyler Durden

The Tale Of Two Conventions: Gingrich

The Tale Of Two Conventions: Gingrich

Authored by Newt Gingrich via RealClearPolicy,

Historians will look at the 2024 Democratic and Republican national conventions as harbingers of profound changes in American politics and government.

Callista and I participated in the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, so we got a good sense of who was there and what was happening in the GOP. When we watched the opening night of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the contrast between the two was overwhelming.

The Republican National Convention was shaped by the reality of the Trump revolution. President Trump miraculously survived an assassination attempt the Saturday before, and the convention simply added to the sense of drama. After nine years of campaigning (starting with the trip down the Trump Tower escalator in June 2015) Trump steadily gained support across the entire GOP.

Trump’s emergence and dominance changed the fabric of the Republican Party. This was illustrated by who was not in Milwaukee. President George W. Bush and Vice Presidents Dick Cheney, Dan Quayle, and Mike Pence were absent. Former Republican presidential nominee and current Sen. Mitt Romney was missing. Former Speaker Paul Ryan announced that he would write in an alternative candidate rather than vote for President Trump.

The 2024 Republican National Convention was proof of the profound, wrenching shift in the power base of the Republican Party. The old guard was gone, and a new movement was emerging. Importantly, this change had been initiated by Republican voters.

The MAGA movement is the core of the Republican Party. It’s leader, President Trump, is now the central figure in a party which dates to 1854.

Consider the contrast with the Democrats in Chicago.

The leftwing establishment, which traces its dominance of American politics and government back to the election of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, was in full force.

Presidents Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton were there – along with former Secretary of State and Sen. Hillary Clinton, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Senate Leader Chuck Schumer, and the entire hierarchy of the Democratic Party.

The Republican convention in Milwaukee represented a party reflecting its voters’ wishes. The Democratic Party in Chicago represented a party firmly controlled by its leaders and focused on continuity of power.

Just think about the processes of Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 and 2024.

In 2020, Democrat voters wanted a change from the establishment. There was a real possibility that self-proclaimed Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders could become the nominee. He was building momentum after a strong race against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The senior leadership maneuvered to work against Sanders and ensure that Biden would be nominated. This was an amazing considering Biden had come in fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then-House Democratic Whip James Clyburn delivered the Democratic Primary in South Carolina. After that, Biden gained momentum. Suddenly, Biden’s other establishment opponents began to drop out and endorse him. Sanders – and the will of many Democrat voters – were blocked in a beautifully executed campaign behind the scenes by the Party’s bosses.

This year, the Democrats faced a new dilemma. After President Biden fell apart in his June 27 debate with President Trump, the Democratic Party leadership concluded that Biden could not win. The prospect of a second Trump presidency was so horrifying to them they decided to push Biden out.

An amazing pressure campaign was undertaken to force Biden’s withdrawal. It was instigated by the Democratic leadership and executed by their media allies. Day-by-day, new pundits came out calling for Biden to step aside. Various members of Congress followed suit. Finally, it became obvious that Biden was a no-go, and donors started to voice their concerns.

Biden had won 98 percent of the delegates. No serious candidate entered the primaries against him. The party that preached saving democracy had a choice: principled defeat or hypocrisy with a chance to win. The Democratic Party power brokers forced Biden to retire without defeating him in a single caucus or primary. It was an astonishing example of top-down political power.

More impressive than Biden’s ouster was the instantaneous shift to Vice President Kamala Harris. She never won a primary. In 2019, she was such a bad candidate she dropped out before a single vote was cast.

So, in the name of supposedly saving democracy, the Democrats now have a candidate for whom no one voted.

Here’s what this means to voters. The Democrats’ backroom politics guarantee a continuity of the same failed policies that have frustrated Americans and made life harder. They are the same policies which led to the current populist uprising in America.

The Republican Party is listening to people and changing. The Democratic Party is using machine tactics to avoid change and maintain power.

That’s the tale of the two conventions.

For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/22/2024 – 21:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/aSRQXJq Tyler Durden

China Steel Mill Profits Collapse, Goldman Issues: “Bleak Outlook” For Iron Ore 

China Steel Mill Profits Collapse, Goldman Issues: “Bleak Outlook” For Iron Ore 

The global commodities market peaked in early 2022 and stumbled ever since. China’s property sector remains in a multi-year slump, resulting in soft demand for base metals like iron ore and copper. Last week, Baowu Steel Group Chairman Hu Wangming warned that the economic conditions in the world’s second-largest economy felt like a “harsh winter.”

As the world’s largest steel producer, Baowu Steel’s chairman warned that the steel industry’s downturn could be “longer, colder, and more difficult to endure than expected,” potentially mirroring the severe downturns of 2008 and 2015. This should serve as a major wake-up call for macro observers that a recovery in China isn’t imminent; in fact, Beijing might not unleash the monetary and fiscal cannons until after the US presidential elections. 

Commenting on Chinese iron ore markets is a team of Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham and Daan Struyven. The analysts provided a very straightforward note to clients on Thursday, pointing out that iron ore’s “fundamental outlook remains bleak” as prices trade below $100/ton level. 

Here are the highlights from the note:

  • The fundamental outlook remains bleak, in our view. While both port and in-plant iron ore stocks declined this week, visible stocks remain elevated compared to ‘normal’ August levels and mills’ destocking (despite the drop in iron ore prices) could be an indication of a negative production outlook. This would not be surprising given only 1% of Chinese steel mills are currently profitable, according to a Mysteel survey.

  • Meanwhile, our China property team have cut their forecasts for gross floor area starts and completions for 2024, and our China economists have highlighted rising downside risk to Chinese growth, both of which could have negative implications for steel demand, discussed in this week’s Macro Highlight.

  • In the absence of a hot metal output recovery, continued strong iron ore supply means that we maintain the view that iron ore needs to remain below $100/t for long enough to trigger a sufficient supply response to re-balance the market.

The analyst said macro data in China printed on the soft side in July. They were worried about “continued weakness across property sales, new starts and completions.” Also, they pointed out that Goldman’s property team slashed forecasts for the second half of 2024.

Here’s more from the note: 

With continued weakness across property sales, new starts and completions, our China Property team have cut their forecasts for H2 2024. The new 2024 full year base case is a YoY contraction in gross floor area (GFA) sales of -20% (prev. -12%), new starts of -22% (prev. -15%) and completions of -13% (prev. +3% YoY). The team’s forecast for property FAI remains unchanged at -12% YoY for 2024. While the new base case does imply some sequential improvement in GFA completions (currently at -22% YoY for Jan-July 2024), the expectation is that new starts (the more steel-intensive stage of property construction) continue to trend substantially below last year’s level (already a low base) over the remainder of the year, diminishing hope for any substantial pick-up in long steel demand, which is down 21% YoY YTD, according to Mysteel data, with output down by the same percentage. Also relating to Chinese long steel demand, our China economists have noted that after years of rapid infrastructure building (which has helped to put a floor under long steel consumption despite very weak property new start data over the past two years), finding new projects with decent return profiles has become increasingly challenging, posing further downside to steel demand in coming years.

However, as we have noted previously, more concerning for iron ore consumption are the growing risks to flat steel demand (used in manufacturing and for exports) due to the strong correlation with hot metal output and iron ore consumption. With export growth expected to moderate, our China economists state that higher domestic demand growth is needed to fill the gap in order to achieve the 2024 growth target of “around 5%”. Likewise, we argue that stronger domestic demand will be necessary in supporting flat steel production, and therefore iron ore consumption, in the scenario that steel exports, either direct or indirect via manufacturing, fall. This is a scenario that looks increasingly likely.

However, we are doubtful of the extent to which domestic demand will be able to pick up any slack. In the near term, our China economists believe that the downside risk to China growth is rising, and private demand appears to be weakening in the data. Urban unemployment rates appear to be increasing, which could have a negative impact on household consumption in H2 (for example, potential further weakness in retail sales following declines in June and July), and corporate demand deposits dropped 18% YoY, suggesting that corporates do not plan to increase investment in the near term. Alongside potentially weaker demand, destocking could also trigger a further reduction in flat steel output in H2. Mysteel-reported flat steel stocks are significantly above August levels of previous years on record (Exhibit 19), concentrated in traders’ holdings (mills’ stocks are within a normal range). Today’s data showed the biggest WoW drop in traders’ flat steel stocks since the post-Lunar New Year destock in March, and we will be keeping an eye on whether this trend continues over the coming weeks.

Beyond this year, our China economists expect GDP growth to slow from a nearly 7% average in the 5 years before the pandemic to 3% by 2034 on weakening demographics, the prolonged property downturn, and global supply-chain de-risking. This will likely have mostly negative effects on global commodity demand growth, including for steel, for which we estimate global demand growth falls by 1.4pp when China growth slows by 1pp.

This is the most stunning chart from the report, showing that only 1% of steel mills are profitable in the world’s second-largest economy. As profitability collapses, hot metal output declines. 

Iron ore prices in China have slid to a 21-month low. 

Metal stocks are high at ports and steel mills. Reports have surfaced that producers are flooding the world with cheap iron ore. 

Global supplies are still elevated. 

And consumption is soft. 

Meanwhile, JPM Global Manufacturing PMI has slid (<50) into a contraction. 

While the property market slowdown continues in the world’s second-largest economy, in the US—the world’s largest economy—there are new fears that government statisticians may have overstated the economy’s strength (read here), influenced by the White House in an election year, leading to concerns that the economy may be much weaker than cheerleaded by VP Harris and President Biden.

Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/22/2024 – 21:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/U9pmx2w Tyler Durden