Month: October 2024

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Pennsylvania court ruled on Oct. 30 that the state’s requirement for mail-in ballots to be correctly dated in order to be counted is unconstitutional, though the 3–2 decision, according to the judge’s opinion, applies only to a past special election.

A Commonwealth Court panel upheld a ruling by a Philadelphia judge stating that 69 ballots from the special election, submitted on time but lacking handwritten dates, must be counted.

While Pennsylvania law requires those voting by mail to date the envelope in which the ballot is returned, “multiple state and federal courts have determined that the dating provisions are meaningless, as they do not establish voter eligibility, timely ballot receipt, or fraud,” Commonwealth Court Judge Ellen Ceisler wrote for the majority.

“We cannot countenance any law governing elections, determined to be mandatory or otherwise, that has the practical effect in its application of impermissibly infringing on certain individuals’ fundamental right to vote,” she said later. “We are not being asked to make changes with respect to the impending 2024 General Election.”

In a dissenting opinion, Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough said the court should not have decided on the matter now because it “surely will confuse the expectations of both voters and county boards of elections alike.”

“The only reason that either the trial court or the Majority would rule on this question now is precisely to change the rules for the already underway general election,” she said, referring to the Nov. 5 election in which some voters are casting early or absentee ballots.

The timing of the decision deprives the Pennsylvania Supreme Court of a reasonable opportunity to review before the Nov. 5 election, Commonwealth Court Judge Matthew Wolf said in another dissent.

“Pennsylvania voters cannot be disenfranchised for trivial reasons,” Stephen Loney, senior supervising attorney of the American Civil Liberties Union of Pennsylvania, which is representing plaintiffs in the case, said in a statement. “The dates written on return envelopes are completely meaningless, and everyone agrees that these ballots are from eligible voters and were timely received. Disqualifying voters for minor errors is a violation of the state constitution, which errs on the side of the voter.”

The ruling went against the Republican National Committee and the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, which, as intervenors, had asked the appeals court to overturn an earlier ruling by Court of Common Pleas Judge James Crumlish III. Crumlish’s ruling required the counting of the 69 ballots after finding that the date requirement violated the Pennsylvania Constitution.

The Republicans have not yet reacted to the ruling.

The Philadelphia Board of Elections, the defendant in the case, and which also appealed Crumlish’s ruling, did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Pennsylvania’s Department of State said in an Aug. 30 social media post that writing the date on ballot envelopes “provides no purpose to election administration.”

Earlier this year, the Commonwealth Court also found the date requirement unconstitutional for voters who returned their ballots on time. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court vacated this decision, stating that the Commonwealth Court lacked the authority to review the case due to the involvement of county election boards as defendants.

McCullough said that the new ruling suffered from some of the same problems as the ruling that was vacated.

Mimi McKenzie, legal director of the Public Interest Law Center, said after the latest ruling that the date requirement may be adjudicated further in the future and encouraged voters to still date the envelope in which a ballot is returned.

North Korea is increasingly back in the news amid soaring tensions on multiple fronts, especially following accusations that it sent some 10,000 of its troops to Russia to prepare for possible deployment to fight in Ukraine.

Pyongyang on Thursday test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in almost a year. What’s more is that the flight is widely being described as a North Korean rocket’s longest ever flight time.

Given that nuclear warhead-capable ICBMs can reach several thousands of miles away, such a missile would have the capability of hitting the continental United States. And the timing has not been lost on anyone, coming a mere days before the US presidential election.

“I affirm that the DPRK will never change its line of bolstering up its nuclear forces,” Kim Jong Un declared.

The following detailed description and analysis of the launch’s implications was provided by NBC:

The missile was launched from a site near the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, at 7:10 a.m. local time (6:10 p.m. Wednesday ET), South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said. Spokesperson Lee Sung-joon said the missile was fired “at a very high altitude” and traveled more than 600 miles before it landed in the sea off North Korea’s east coast.

The launch might have been held so close to the U.S. election to strengthen North Korea’s negotiating leverage and grab attention, Lee said.

He said the weapon might have been fueled by solid propellants, which allow missiles to be launched faster and move more discreetly than liquid-fueled ones, and that it might have been fired from a 12-axle launch vehicle, which was revealed last month and is North Korea’s biggest mobile launch platform. 

This might also be response to recent threatening language and warnings issued by US, NATO, and Ukrainian officials related to reports of North Korean troops in Ukraine.

For example the US warned a UN security council meeting on Wednesday that North Korean troops will “come home in body bags”.

Washington is also busy reaffirming the South Korea that it calls under America’s nuclear umbrella, according to treaties:

“I assured Minister Kim today that the United States remains fully committed to the defense of the ROK and our extended deterrence commitment remains ironclad,” Austin said. “That commitment is backed by the full range of America’s conventional missile defense, nuclear and advanced non-nuclear capabilities.”

He added that the US and South Korea will be returning “to large scale exercises” and “strengthening [their] combined readiness and our interoperability.”

North Korea successfully tested its longest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile, with a potential range of 15,000 km, that could bring the entire mainland of the United States within range https://t.co/SL1xbwdmcn pic.twitter.com/XzLYDblsdx

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 31, 2024

And yet it is drills just like these which Kim Jong Un has cited over and over again as being justification enough to expand his nuclear arsenal.

Pyongyang and Moscow are also in parallel deepening their defense ties, having inked their own pact this summer, and the Kremlin has cited this as the legal basis for North Korean troops being hosted in Russia.

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

Former President John F. Kennedy threatened to “splinter [the CIA] into a thousand pieces and scatter it to the winds” before he was assassinated in 1963. JFK’s nephew, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., wants something perhaps less dramatic.

In a Trump campaign event with Tulsi Gabbard on Saturday, RFK explained his idea for reforming the CIA. According to him, reforming the CIA is as simple as splintering the “espionage” and “plans” divisions, which handle matters of intelligence and paramilitary operations, respectively. Those divisions are referred to today as the Directorate of Intelligence and Directorate of Operations.

RFK said the two divisions need to be reorganized so the intelligence/espionage area has oversight of the paramilitary operations. He said his father had a similar plan when he was Attorney General.

“My father had a reform plan … Break up espionage division from the plans division, which is paramilitary division that fixes elections, buys newspapers, assassinates foreign leaders and so on,” he said.

“I would break up those divisions and … put espionage division oversight of plans division.”

RFK Jr. explained his plan for reforming the CIA at a campaign event we attended Saturday.
He also revealed that he recently had dinner with former CIA director Mike Pompeo — saying he doesn’t like Pompeo but admires him. pic.twitter.com/N2I89JLJea

— Headline USA (@HeadlineUSA) October 29, 2024

Such a plan may seem tepid for a man who’s accused the CIA of being involved in the murder of his uncle. But RFK’s been surprisingly cordial with the agency. His daughter-in-law and campaign manager, Amaryllis Fox Kennedy, was a CIA officer for 10 years.

RFK also revealed at Saturday’s campaign event in North Carolina that he had dinner with former Trump-era CIA Director Mike Pompeo. RFK called Pompeo a “neocon” and said he disagreed with him on many policies, but also said he admired him, calling the former agency director brilliant.

RFK said Pompeo told him that “The worst mistake of my public lie was not fixing CIA. I could have but I didn’t do it.”

“The entire upper echelon of that agency is made of individuals who don’t believe in the institutions of the United States of America,” RFK said.

Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Axios is reporting Thursday that Iran is still preparing a major retaliation in response to the Israeli aerial attack of the overnight and early morning hours of last Saturday. Israel’s strikes on missile and military facilities was itself a much anticipated response to the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack.

While most regional observers believe the tit-for-tat has cooled down, reflected in declining oil prices this week, the Axios report cites a pair of Israeli officials to say “Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election.”

This would involve large numbers of drones and ballistic missiles, they say. Throughout the Gaza war, there have been sporadic drones launched by Iran-backed paramilitary units in Iraq, but nothing on a major scale.

Israeli sources on Thursday have suggested Iran is actually moving ballistic missiles to prepare for such an attack.

Also, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami has been cited as saying that Iran’s response will be “different from any scenario” Israel might expect.

CNN too has been reporting the fresh threats, on Wednesday writing the following based on Iranian military sources:

Israel’s recent attacks on Iran will be met with a “definitive and painful” response that will likely come before the US presidential vote, a high-ranking source told CNN on Wednesday.

The remarks signal a departure from Iran’s initial attempts to downplay the severity of the strikes carried out by Israel on October 25, which marked the first time Israel has openly acknowledged striking Iranian targets.

“The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the aggression of the Zionist regime will be definitive and painful,” the source, who is familiar with Iran’s deliberations, said.

Although the source did not provide an exact date for the attack, they said it “will probably take place before the day of the US presidential election.”

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government is seething over Israeli warplanes violating its airspace during last weekend’s attack. It has lodged an official protest note with the United Nations about the illegal breach.

It appears the some one hundred Israeli jets reportedly used in the attack fired on Iran from over neighboring Iraqi airspace. Such a tactic has long been utilized by the Israeli Air Force in attacking Syria, as it typically fires from over undefended Lebanese airspace.

Currently US and Israeli negotiators say they are getting close to achieving a ceasefire with Hezbollah, but any new large-scale attack from the ‘Iranian axis’ would surely jeopardize such a potential deal.

Authored by Ethan Watson via RealClearPolitics,

Our calendars are full of useless holidays. Just last week, we saw Credit Union Day, Mashed Potato Day, and Raw Milk Cheese Appreciation Day. While observances like these are otherwise irrelevant at the national level, there is one day of the year that has long lacked federal “holiday” status: Election Day.

Unlike offhanded observances such as Earth Day, on which life goes on as usual, Election Day ought to be an official federal holiday like Presidents’ Day or Thanksgiving, with all non-essential workers receiving a paid day off to carry out their civic duty. Establishing this yearly event as a federal holiday would increase voter turnout, restore faith in our elections, and, most importantly, boost morale through a shared civic display.

Designating Election Day as a national holiday and giving workers the day off would largely mitigate the need for accommodations like mail-in voting and early voting, allowing policymakers to require in-person voting except in special circumstances. This would also make possible a mass return to paper ballots, eliminating the need for voting machines which have been swamped in scandal since 2020.

Some say mail-in voting is ripe for manipulation; others contend voting machines are prone to hacks and glitches. While it’s difficult to quantify how much voting machines or absentee ballots have increased the risk of election-rigging, if at all, it’s clear that a significant number of Americans have lost faith in our elections – just as they’ve lost faith in our media, our government, and their friends and neighbors.

In a world where most Americans have the day off work and vote in person, on a paper ballot, many common doubts about our election system become moot. Of course, exceptions will apply for essential workers or citizens temporarily living in a different state, but the vast majority of Americans would have to physically go to a polling place on Election Day and vote. Volunteers would then count the paper ballots onsite, significantly reducing doubts about voting machine integrity or ballots lost in the mail.

Prominent right-wingers like Vivek Ramaswamy have actually promoted this plan over the course of the 2024 election, citing election integrity concerns. Yet, making Election Day a federal holiday would go far beyond healing the election-denial wound – it would generate patriotism with a new shared tradition.

Civic virtue is a good thing, and public reminders of it are even better. To appreciate our democracy and commit ourselves to maintaining it, we need a public reminder that tyranny, not democracy, has been the norm throughout human history. The United States is exceptional because we establish power not through strength, but by consensus.

As humans, we need physical reminders to keep us mindful of such abstract truths. That’s why we build churches, write great works of literature, and even get tattoos. If the principles we hold dear aren’t manifested in anything, we lose them.

A mass migration of Americans to the polls every year would become a powerful symbol of our democracy’s resilience, a shining example to the world that our grand experiment worked. Moreover, a whole day for voting could inspire people to participate in state and local elections – affairs that have an even greater impact on their daily lives than national elections.

People would look forward to voting. It would become a celebrated ritual in a public life otherwise devoid of shared traditions. One could imagine pre-voting brunches and post-voting barbecues. Families could go to the polls in the morning and spend the rest of the day enjoying their freedom and leisure together. Children would grow up looking forward to participating in their citizenship, just like we look forward to Christmas, Thanksgiving, and the first day of summer vacation.

These days, Americans can’t even agree on whether the Fourth of July is a day worth celebrating (spoiler alert, it is). But without a shared culture, we cannot have a nation. It’s time to start rebuilding that shared culture with a national day that puts our exceptional founding ideals to work.

Ethan Watson is a Young Voices contributor working towards a Master of Accounting degree at the University of Kansas. He holds dual undergraduate degrees in Accounting and Political Science with an eye toward law school in the near future. Follow him on X: @erwatson13.

Update (530pm ET): AAPL is sliding to session lows after hours after revealing some very lukewarm guidance on the call, saying it now expects Q1 revenue to grow in the low to mid-single digits YoY (assume 4-6%). The sellside consensus is at 7%.

As Bloomberg notes, “low to mid single digits” growth means a slowdown for Apple, which just reported a 6% sales rise. So it’s understandable why shares moved south after that pronouncement. They’re now down about 2% in extended trading.

So much for the AI revolution sparking  a new iPhone supercycle (which would lead to double digit revenue growth).

$AAPL FQ1 guide is low to mid-single-digit revenue growth vs consensus of 7%. That also does not imply the double digit #superCycle growth that some have predicted.

— Walter Piecyk (@WaltLightShed) October 31, 2024

* * *

Ahead of earnings, UBS had Apple sentiment at a relatively subdued 6/10. That’s because despite AI enthusiasm following Apple’s WWDC event over the summer, UBS analyst David Vogt’s checks and other ancedotal evidence indicated iPhone unit sell-through in the Sept quarter was effectively flattish year over year at around 46 mn versus global sell-through up 2% y/y. Vogt previewed, anticipating September Quarter results largely in line with his forecast of $94 bn/$158 bn with a chance for upside driven by iPad and flattish iPhone units of 46 mn versus sell-through up 2% y/y. Factoring in 5 mn iPhone channel fill, David forecasts 51 mn iPhone units and iPhone revenue of $45.7 bn and expectations of 4-5 mn beat (following a report from IDC suggesting 56 mn units in Q3) with balanced December Quarter commentary. David anticipates only a modest tailwind from AI in the Dec Quarter and forecasts 78 mn iPhone units and remains at neutral and a $236 price target.

Furthermore, despite multiple observations that AI is not boosting iPhone sales (see “Apple Intelligence is here. Early users are underwhelmed”), investors continue to give Apple the benefit of the doubt of a successful iPhone 16 launch, which thus far is not overly supportive based on checks/sell-through. Many appear to be holding out for further confirmation until the rollout of Apple Intelligence but David anticipates balanced commentary regarding December Quarter iPhone demand. Valuation is a common pushback, but absent a significant iPhone miss UBS is not sure the Q3 results will be much of a catalyst either way for the stock. In terms of flows, more long only demand/buyers for the most part.

So with all that in mind, here is what AAPL just reported for the quarter ended Sept 30:

• Adjusted EPS 1.64 c vs. $1.46 y/y, beating estimates of 1.58
• Revenue $94.93 billion, +6.1% y/y, beating estimates of $94.36 billion
  • Products revenue $69.96 billion, +4.1% y/y, beating estimates $69.15 billion
    • IPhone revenue $46.22 billion, +5.5% y/y, beating estimates  $45.04 billion, and an all time record for the company’s fiscal Q4.
    • Mac revenue $7.74 billion, +1.7% y/y, in line with estimates $7.74 billion
    • IPad revenue $6.95 billion, +7.9% y/y, missing estimates $7.07 billion
    • Wearables, home and accessories $9.04 billion, -3% y/y, missing estimate $9.17 billion
  • Service revenue $24.97 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimate $25.27 billion

The one – very big – fly in the ointment was the usual suspect: China, where revenues unexpectedly dropped again, down 0.3% YoY:

• Greater China rev. $15.03 billion, -0.3% y/y, missing estimate $15.8 billion

Going down the line”

• Total operating expenses $14.29 billion, +6.2% y/y, below estimates $14.35 billion
• Cost of sales $51.05 billion, +4% y/y, above estimates $50.81 billion
• Gross margin $43.88 billion, +8.5% y/y, above estimate $43.46 billion
• Cash and cash equivalents $29.94 billion vs. $29.97 billion y/y, above estimate $26.04 billion

And so on:

Looking at a breakdown of sales by product category we find that revenue from the iPhone came in higher than expected, lifting overall revenue. It came in at $46.2 billion, beating estimates of $45 billion and growing over $1 billion year-over-year. Yet while Apple’s marketing engine around Apple Intelligence worked, the number came in somewhat shy of the more optimistic forecasts.

The rest of the product suite was mixed with Mac revenue coming in line with est at $7.74bn, while both iPads and wearables missed expectations ($6.95BN vs exp. $7.07BN, and $9.04BN, vs exp. $9.17BN).

• Macs came in with an about $100 million annual revenue increase, meeting Wall Street estimates of $7.7 billion. New Macs released this week should help that product segment in the current quarter. 
• The iPad was a surprising miss, coming in just shy of $7 billion despite the release of the new iPad Pro and iPad Air models earlier this year. A new iPad mini released this month is unlikely to help materially.
• Wearables, Home and Accessories was another disappointment, declining considerably and missing Wall Street expectations. There simply is not a lot of excitement in Apple’s wearables segment right now — and the new AirPods are now an early-adopter product that aren’t likely to generate much momentum in the fourth quarter.
• The other concerning part about Wearables, Home and Accessories is that revenue continues to fall despite Apple launching a $3,500 device that is its first major new product category in a decade as part of the segment this year.

As Bloomberg notes, the iPad and Wearables numbers “are pretty concerning” and it feels like the overall wearables segment for Apple is tapering –– but it’s worth noting two of the bigger drivers there (the Apple Watch Ultra and AirPods Pro) haven’t seen meaningful updates in two years.

To be sure, it wasn’t all bad news: the fact that sales of iPhone — despite looking the same for half a decade and including little to no compelling upgrades over the prior few models — increased is a testament to Apple’s marketing might and brand strength. There are no signs of the iconic product slowing down.

But, at some point, Apple is going to need to inject some innovative — not iterative — changes in order to once again stand out from the crowd. Apple is extraordinarily lucky that its competitors in the consumer electronics space are doing absolutely nothing to take advantage of the opportunity in front of them to outpace Apple.

There was another disappointment: contrary to expectations for a modest rebound, China sales declined for a fifth consecutive quarter, down 0.3%, and printing at $15.03BN, below the $15.8BN estimate. The rest of the world saw growth, modest in the Americas at 3.9%, and stronger in Europe and APAC, both double digits.

As Bloomberg notes, Greater China continues to be a weak spot for Apple and the company hasn’t done much to push new products, pricing and initiatives in that market — or other emerging areas — to offset the issues.

The weakness there, which Apple will try to explain away in its conference call, is because of a combination of nationalism and interest in local products, whose designs are getting better. The local players are also trying new things like foldables while Apple continues to use the same design it rolled out five years ago.

Still, while revenues have declined for 5 quarter, the modest upward movement in YoY sales is encouraging.

Once again, Apple reached a new record in terms of its installed base of devices around the world. Yet with iPhone revenue ahead but China revenue missing, there’s a question: Did iPhone grow in China?

And while we wait for the answer, there was more disappointment for AAPL because after wearables and China missed, so did Service revenue, which at $24.97BN, up 12%, came light of estimates $25.27BN.

While services revenue was at an all-time record, the softness could become even softer in the future if governments continue to get their way and make Apple open up its App Store to alternative distribution and payment methods.

Commenting on the quarter, CFO Luca Maestri said that “our record business performance during the September quarter drove nearly $27 billion in operating cash flow, allowing us to return over $29 billion to our shareholders. We are very pleased that our active installed base of devices reached a new all-time high across all products and all geographic segments, thanks to our high levels of customer satisfaction and loyalty.”

Well at least the company is buying back stock hand over fist (it repurchased $25BN in the quarter), because shareholders are increasingly leery to do so. And speaking of blemishes, it is also worth noting that the dollar value for inventories in the quarter was around $900 million higher than the same period a year ago. Suppliers are a part of that: remember, Apple doesn’t make its own phones!

Putting it together, these mixed results will affirm concerns among investors that Apple is losing its shine considerably in China while continuing to flood the market with products that consumers simply don’t find appealing, as well as devices that are only iterative tweaks from prior versions. And so far, nothing Apple has shown in terms of its AI technology has the look of a company that is set to own a core piece of that industry moving forward.

Will this is the straw that breaks the DEI camel’s back?

Bloomberg reports that Boeing just became the latest big corporate entity to abandon the DEI debacle amid growing pressures to perform and be woke.

Anti-DEI activist Robby Starbuck, who claims credit for convincing Toyota  and Harley-Davidson to scale back DEI, said he had reached out to Ortberg and board chair Steve Mollenkopf by e-mail earlier this month to alert them he was considering an online campaign against their diversity programs. 

Bloomberg reports that the planemaker has dismantled its global diversity, equity and inclusion department, making it the latest high-profile corporation to make changes to its DEI policy as its new top leader oversees a broader revamp of the company’s workforce.

Staff from Boeing’s DEI office will be combined with another human resources team focused on talent and employee experience, according to people familiar with the matter.

And you’ll never guess what approach the new CEO is taking – “merit-based” performance appraisal.

“Boeing remains committed to recruiting and retaining top talent and creating an inclusive work environment where every teammate around the world can perform at their best while supporting the company’s mission,” the planemaker said in a statement.

The company added that it prohibits discriminatory hiring practices and maintains “a merit-based performance system with procedures aimed at encouraging an equality of opportunity, not of outcomes.”

Boeing had promised to increase opportunities for under-represented workers, including Black employees, in the aftermath of George Floyd’s death in 2020.

As part of that effort, the company pledged to increase overall Black employment by 20% by 2025.

Boeing was already closing in on that goal last year, as Black employment rose to 7.5% in 2023 –  a 17% increase, according to data reported to the US federal government.

Sara Liang Bowen, a Boeing vice president who led the now-defunct department, left the company on Thursday.

“The team achieved so much — sometimes imperfectly, never easily — and dreamed of doing much more still,” Bowen wrote in a farewell post on LinkedIn.

What exactly did u achieve Ms Bowen?

 

As we noted in our preview earlier, Hedge Funds are getting picky into the quarter. While most were short as given a perceived miss below Street for Q4 EBIT, some have covered as downside (if any) would be short-lived with investors having messaged a “buy-the-dip” mentality. Investors are starting to understand the variability of operating income and there is a general agreement that this is the best capital allocator in the space, so would rather Amazon invest than harvest profit dollars. The bull case continues to center around

1. prospects for faster gross merchandise value growth and share gains on higher level of service amidst ongoing fulfillment regionalization efforts in the US and eventual global rollout;
2. ongoing margin expansion in Amazon’s ecommerce franchise due to improving unit economics;
3. new high margin revenue stream from Prime Video with ads – although still in its early innings it should become a meaningful contributor over time, especially as content costs are already incorporated in the model.

Investors are also focused on the payouts through the investment cycle with AWS penciled in for next year; ecommerce a constant; NBA cash doesn’t go out the door until 2025 so should see return on investment after that; Kuiper spending money on R&D now, but equipment and launch capitalization and depreciation are on the other side, which doesn’t come in until 2H25. The most important things will be:

1. directional commentary around AWS growth/optimization;
2. signals of retail margin improvement as suggested by management commentary on “cost to serve”;
3. progress with fulfillment regionalization and broader cost containment efforts;
4. directional commentary on fiscal year capex for ecommerce (up with business) and ongoing AWS investments;
5. commentary on adoption of Prime Video with ads and ad industry broadly and;
6. positioning around GenAI investments.

The AWS bogey is 21% and reaching AWS growth of 21% in 3Q24 implies sequential revenue growth of $1.62 bn, well above the 3Q23 (depressed) level of $920 mn and the second-best quarter ever, apart from the 4Q21 (boom period) sequential revenue growth level of $1.67 bn. While doable, this isn’t a slam dunk.

With that in mind, this is what AMZN reported for Q3:

• EPS $1.43 vs. $1.26 q/q, beating estimate $1.16
• Net sales $158.88 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimates $157.29 billion
  • Online stores net sales $61.41 billion, +7.2% y/y, beating estimate $59.64 billion
  • Physical Stores net sales $5.23 billion, +5.4% y/y, beating estimate $5.17 billion
  • Subscription Services net sales $11.28 billion, +11% y/y, beating estimate $11.17 billion
    • Subscription services net sales excluding F/X +11% vs. +13% y/y, beating estimate +9.86%
  • North America net sales $95.54 billion, +8.7% y/y, beating estimate $95.22 billion
  • International net sales $35.89 billion, +12% y/y, beating estimate $34.55 billion
  • Third-Party Seller Services net sales $37.86 billion, +10% y/y, missing estimate $38.22 billion
    • Third-party seller services net sales excluding F/X +10% vs. +18% y/y, missing estimate +11.8%
• Amazon Web Services net sales $27.45 billion, +19% y/y, missing estimate $27.49 billion
• Amazon Web Services net sales excluding F/X +19% vs. +12% y/y, missing estimate +19.2%

Turning to operating results we find the following:

• AWS operating profit $10.4BN, beating estimates of $9.12BN
• North America operating margin +5.9% vs. +4.9% y/y, beating estimate +5.58%
• International operating margin 3.6% vs. -0.3% y/y, beating estimate 1.23%
• Operating income $17.41 billion, +56% y/y, beating estimates $14.75 billion
• Operating margin 11% vs. 7.8% y/y, beating estimates 9.34%, and an all time high

As for expenses, these were slightly above estimates suggesting the company can use some more cost optimizations:

• Fulfillment expense $24.66 billion, +11% y/y, higher than estimates of $24.35 billion
• Seller unit mix 60% vs. 60% y/y,

Of the above, the most notable highlight – as per our preview – was AWS which grew revenue by a whopping 19% to $27.45BN, which however was just below the sellside estimate of $27.49BN. Furthermore, ex FX, the growth was also 19.0%, below the 19.2% bogey. So maybe a little weakness here similar to Microsoft.

But if revenue growth for AWS was a bit light, the margin more than offset it, rising from 35.5% to 38.1%, a record for the segment. This was thanks to AWS operating income of $10.4 billion, exceeding analysts’ average projection of $9.12 billion. The fact that international margins also surged to 3.63%, the highest since Covid, certainly helped.

As a result of the surge in international and AWS profits, Amazon’s consolidated operating margin rebounded strongly, and after dipping modestly in Q2 from the Q1 record of 10.7%, rose to a new all time high of 11.0% in Q3!

Looking ahead, the company projected profit and revenue in the current quarter that exceeded analysts’ estimates on optimism for a strong holiday shopping season:

• Revenues for Q4 are expected to be between $181.5 billion and $188.5 billion, or to grow between 7% and 11% compared with fourth quarter 2023, with the midline of 185 billion just below consensus estimate of $186.36 billion.
• Operating income for Q4 is expected to be between $16 billion and $20 billion, compared with $13.2 billion in fourth quarter 2023. and in line with the median estimate of $17.5 billion.

If accurate, that would mean Q4 revenue will grow at the slowest pace sine Dec 2022.

“As we get into the holiday season, we’re excited about what we have in store for customers,” Chief Executive Officer Andy Jassy said in the statement.

In response to the solid results, which saw revenues beat and guidance in line, despite a mixed report from AWS, the stock surged, and was last trading around $195, up about 4% on the day, and basically where it was to close Wednesday.

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In the last two weeks, Kamala Harris has been trying to revive her stagnant campaign by smearing Trump as being Hitlerian and a fascist. She claims Trump is planning to put his enemies in encampments.

Yet in the modern era, it was not Trump who put large numbers of U.S. residents and citizens into “relocation camps,” but liberal Democrat President Franklin D. Roosevelt who sent Japanese-American citizens and residents into them.

If Harris refers to Trump’s supposed fascist policies during his prior four-year tenure, there is no such evidence.

Nonetheless, the once “joyful” Harris is ending her campaign by trafficking in lies and smears reminiscent of the Joe McCarthy era.

Recall that fascists hijack law enforcement and the military to suspend constitutional rights and punish enemies. But Trump did neither.

Instead, in 2016, a corrupt FBI went after Trump himself during the Obama administration with the bogus Steele dossier.

The FBI, which in 2016 had hired the faker Steele, in 2020, fused with social media to suppress accurate news reporting of the embarrassing Hunter Biden laptop scandal.

A number of FBI directors and intelligence officials—John Brennan, James Clapper, James Comey, Andrew McCabe—who openly sought to destroy Trump had a long history of either lying or feigning amnesia under oath.

Fascists try to warp the legal system. But Trump’s own Justice Department selected an independent special counsel to investigate the invented Russian collusion accusations against him.

In vast contrast, the Biden Justice Department coordinated with Georgia prosecutors Fani Willis and Nathan Wade, special counsel Jack Smith, Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg, and New York Attorney General Letitia James to prosecute Trump, bankrupt him, and keep off the campaign trail.

Fascists use their governments to destroy their enemies.

During Trump’s term, for the first time in history, the House of Representatives impeached a first-term president twice. And in another first, the Senate tried Trump as a private citizen.

A self-styled “anonymous” federal official bragged openly of deliberately, and likely unlawfully, leading a bureaucratic cabal to sabotage Trump’s lawful executive orders.

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, in collusion with other bureaucrats, deliberately leaked a classified presidential phone call in an effort to ensure that Trump was impeached.

Fascists seek to change existing laws to destroy opponents and illegally consolidate power.

Currently, it is only the Democrats who seek to pack the court, destroy the Electoral College, end the Senate filibuster, and create two new states and thus gain four left-wing senators.

In key states, they radically changed voting laws.

As a result, roughly 70 percent of voters in 2020 did not cast their ballots in person on Election Day—even as the traditional rejection rates for fraudulent ballots mysteriously dived amid the influx.

Fascists arbitrarily nullify any laws they feel do not aid their agendas. Biden-Harris destroyed immigration law in order to bring in more than 12 million illegal aliens and gain new constituencies.

They also protected sanctuary cities, as some 600 such jurisdictions illegally and with impunity nullified federal immigration laws in neo-Confederate fashion.

Fascists seek to politicize the military.

But in Trump’s case, his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, brazenly violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice by libeling Trump as a fascist.

Worse still, Milley sabotaged the chain of command by ordering theater commanders to report directly to him in times of serious crises.

And in near-treasonous fashion, Milley contacted his Chinese communist counterpart in the People’s Liberation Army to assure him that he would warn the Chinese military before carrying out any Trump order he felt existentially dangerous.

Some of the most prominent retired four-star military officers—again in violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice—publicly smeared Trump as a coward, liar, fascist, Hitler-like, a Mussolini, a creator of Auschwitz-like death camps, and worthy of being removed “the sooner the better.”

Fascists seek to control and weaponize the media. So, Facebook and Twitter both conspired with the FBI to censure news accounts favorable to Trump. The major newspapers, social media corporations, television networks, and public broadcasting systematically and continually attacked Trump, censured his supporters, and fused with his opponents.

Why then the charges of Trump the fascist and Hitler reincarnation?

Simple. Harris’s personal negatives are rising, her polls inert.

She has abandoned her prior run-out-the-clock avoidance of the media, her smiley “joy” campaign, and instead now embraces the big lie, while Joe Biden writes off Trump supporters as “garbage”.

Harris is now confirming to voters that she really can neither think nor speak well and has no consistent agenda that appeals to the middle class.

So, in final desperation, Harris is smearing Trump as a fascist, even though ironically, he has been the target of fascist machinations from her own party and supporters for nearly a decade.

Intel shares are surging after-hours on the back of what can only really be described as “not as bad it could have been” earnings and guidance.

Three months after a painful earnings report that collapsed its share price, the not-quite-so-giant tech company booked nearly $19 billion in restructuring charges but said business trends are now improving.

For the third quarter, Intel reported an adjusted earnings per share loss of 46 cents, compared with Wall Street’s consensus estimate for a 2 cents loss, according to FactSet.

The results may not be comparable to analysts’ estimates as it includes a 63 cents negative impact from impairment charges.

Revenue came in at $13.3 billion, which was above analysts’ expectations of $13.02 billion.

Guidance was increased too…

• Fourth-quarter revenue will be $13.3 billion to $14.3 billion, the Santa Clara, California-based company said in a statement. That compares with the $13.6 billion analysts estimated on average.

• The company is projecting a profit of 12 cents a share compared with the 6 cents Wall Street projected.

INTC shares up 10-12% after hours, but in context, there’s a lot of work to be done…

“This was a critical period of time for the company,” CEO Pat Gelsinger said in the interview. “We got a lot done.”

Additionally, Intel said its audit & finance committee approved a series of cost and capital reduction initiatives, including reducing headcount by 16,500 employees.