Strikes (Missiles & Dockworkers) Spark Surge In Oil, Gold, & Bonds; Big-Tech & Bitcoin Battered

Today’s mixed macro picture (construction spending down, National Manufacturing surveys and Dallas Fed in contraction offset by surge in JOLTS) was overwhelmed by Strikes (from Iranian missiles and American longshoremen).

The widespread union strike deadline passed and bond markets shifted lower in yield on that news overnight. Then as Iranian missiles rained down on Israel, investors poured into safe-havens (bonds, gold) and dumped stocks as oil prices re-discovered geopolitical risk premium.

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all bid today, but are mixed on the week with the short-end significantly underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was also bid as safe-haven (erasing all of yesterday’s losses)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar strengthened significantly on the day (more safe haven flows perhaps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices surged higher on the missile launches with WTI reaching almost $72 before pulling back a little.

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks lurched lower on the Iran-Israel headlines – led by Small Caps and Mega-Cap Tech – but once Europe closed, the algos started trying to BTFD. The momentum did ignite but failed to get any of the majors green before some late-day profit-taking from 0-DTEs dragged everything down again…

VIX and VVIX both surged higher today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin continued to serve its role as an anti-geopolitical risk asset – dumping every time a MidEast headline hits the Bloomberg terminal (which makes little to no sense to us… but hey we don’t have PhDs)…

Source: Bloomberg

It seems BTC and Big-Tech are joined at the hip again for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg reports, while investors are focused on policy cues (and liquidity infusions), earnings momentum has turned negative and could be a drag on stocks if it doesn’t improve with the upcoming earnings season.

Source: Bloomberg

Buy hey, for now liquidity is all that matters…

Source: Bloomberg

…until it doesn’t!

And there’s some liquidity stress in the banks’ plumbing…

Source: Bloomberg

Let’s just hope it’s quarter-end window-dressing (but this is one to keep an eye on).

Is that why USA Sovereign risk is also spiking…

Source: Bloomberg

Probably nothing..