Jobless Claims Remain Low Despite 50%-Plus Surge In Job Cuts

On the heels of a 53.4% YoY rise in job cut announcements (released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas), initial jobless claims remain in a world of their own, rising very modestly to 225k from 219k…

Source: Bloomberg

Initial claims (SA and NSA) remain rangebound – showing absolutely ZERO indication of labor market stress…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims were flat at 1.826mm Americans

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, jobless claims are also completely decoupled from the BLS’ official unemployment rate…

Source: Bloomberg

So, JOLTS and Claims are super strong while ‘soft’ survey data (ISM/PMI/UMICH/CONF BOARD) all show labor market indicators tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

…take your pick to support your political pundit’s choice of how many more rate-cuts we get this year (with stocks and home prices at record highs).