Trump Pulls Ahead In Battleground States

As of Oct. 14, 2024, polling averages aggregated by website RealClear Polling show that Republican candidate Donald Trump has caught up in battleground states ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.

Democratic contender Kamala Harris led her opponent by 0.3 percentage points only in the state of Wisconsin most recently.

Statista’s Katharina Buchholz reports that approximately one month ago, the website had seen Harris and Trump ahead in three battleground states each, while another one was rated as tied.

Right now, the biggest lead for Trump was reported from Arizona with a margin of 1.1 percentage points, while other leads – for example in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania – were much smaller.

Harris leading only in Wisconsin is the equivalent of 10 electoral votes while Trump would collect 83 in this scenario.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The source also calculates how many electoral votes in the 2024 election are expected to come from states usually voting Democratic or Republican and likely/leaning to vote Democratic or Republican.

Here, Harris has 215 votes (including 76 likely/leaning ones), while Trump has 219 votes (126 likely/leaning).

Harris would therefore have to carry slightly more of battleground votes to reach an electoral college majority, which in this calculation include an additional 10 from Minnesota and one from Nebraska’s second district.

The prediction markets are much more clear on who they think will win…

Source: Bloomberg

But just as polls are open to manipulation, the lower liquidity in the prediction markets leaves them open to billionaires pushing and pulling.

With that said, however, Trump’s recent dominance is broad-based and if it was a certain ‘world’s richest man’ pushing the market around, why wouldn’t Soros and his pals push back?