Gold, Bitcoin, & The Dollar Surge Ahead Of Retail Sales; Markets “Very Convinced” Of Trump Victory

VIX remains ‘sticky’ above 20… even as stocks manage gains…

Source: Bloomberg

The short-term vol market is anticipating some movement tomorrow around the retail sales print (likely to be a blow-out number according to BofA), then some calm before the storm of the election outcome and the FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

And while on the topic of the election, during the past 12 days, the market has seemed “very convinced Trump is going to win,” Druckenmiller said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview.

“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto.”

Source: Bloomberg

The former Soros money manager predicted that it’s “extremely unlikely” that Democrats will gain control of Congress even if Harris were to win the presidency.

If there were a so-called blue sweep, he said, equities may be troubled for three to six months.

He also said that a red sweep is “probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress.”

Since the Trump-Harris debate, stocks confirm Druck’s views, shifting sharply in favor of a Trump victory (to a new high today)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, Small Caps outperformed once again (amid another big shot squeeze and strength in financials). Nasdaq ended the day unchanged (ASML worries continues to weigh)…

Another day, another short squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq underperperformed Russell 2000 once again, pulling that ratio down to the lower end of its channel from the last year…

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley surged higher today on earnings, catching up to Wells Fargo. Citi remains the biggest loser…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were lower across the curve today, but only modestly (1-2bps). The long-end continues to outperform on the week (notably curve flattening)…