Month: October 2024

The market drifted lower on a combination of 1) disappointing tech prints (MSFT -6% & META -4%), 2) Poor liquidity (according to Goldman Sachs trading desk), and 3) Core PCE posting its biggest monthly gain since April.

Not exactly ‘goldilocks’!!

Inflation surprises are picking up post rate-cut…

Source: Bloomberg

…bolstering the case for a slower pace of rate cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s trading desk noted that market volumes continue to be strong, +14% vs the 20dma, although S&P top of book poor compared to the start of the week.

We are better to buy as a floor (~1B net demand) led by HFs buying pockets of Tech & Industrials (net to buy across almost all sectors) + LOs buying Comms Svcs. LOs stand out as sellers of Macro Products.

A very ugly end to the month for Nasdaq smashed it into the red for October along all the other majors…

Source: Bloomberg

Should we really be surprised by the decline given that EPS expectations have been guided lower for the last six months?

Source: Bloomberg

Hedge funds had a fun day with losses on their VIP Longs offset by gains on their biggest shorts…

Source: Bloomberg

All the MAG7 stocks were lower today led by MSFT, META, and NVDA…

Source: Bloomberg

The basket of MAG7 stocks erased most of the month’s gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Most Shorted stocks shit the bed…

Source: Bloomberg

While the major indices ended red, buying “Trump” and selling “Kamala” was a huge winner in October…

Source: Bloomberg

The weakness in stocks should not come as a huge shock given the massive surge in Treasury yields we have seen this month. The belly is up almost 60bps on the month and almost 70bps since The Fed cut by 50bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened significantly in October and has been flattening sicne The Fed cut, suggesting for anyone who wants to listen that fears of a policy error are very real…

Source: Bloomberg

And in the mean time, mortgage rates have soared back above 7.00% in October since The Fed cut…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar also soared in October (its biggest monthly rise since Sept 2022) having touched unchanged on the year at the end of Sept (after the rate cut)…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength , gold also exploded higher in October (up for the 8th month of the last 9 ) to a new record high (albeit with some weakness today). Since The fed cut rates, gold has been off to the races…

Source: Bloomberg

Quite a decoupling between the dollar and gold this year…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a puke today, Bitcoin had a huge month (best month since May), rallying up to record highs yesterday near $74,000…

Source: Bloomberg

BTC ETF inflows have been huge in October…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rebounded on Israel-Iran retaliation headlines once again and that lifted WTI into the green for the month…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, bigger picture, since The Fed cut rates, USA Sovereign risk has exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly resounding support from the market.

…and brace for a structurally higher VIX…

Source: Bloomberg

…not just past next week.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Recently, I spoke at an event about my book, “The Indispensable Right,” at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Appearing on the panel with me was a New York University professor and one of the Facebook board members directing “content moderation.” We had a sharp disagreement over the record of Meta/Facebook on censorship, which I described as partisan and anti-free speech.

Now, Congress has released the internal communications at Facebook, showing an express effort to appease Biden officials by censoring the Hunter Biden laptop story before the election.

In a new report released by the House Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on the Weaponization of Government, Facebook executives are shown following the lead of the FBI, which gave them prior warnings to prepare to spike such stories before the election.

The FBI knew that the laptop was authentic. They had possession of the laptop, and American intelligence concluded that it was not Russian disinformation.

One Microsoft employee wrote, “FBI tipped us all off last week that this Burisma story was likely to emerge,”

However, these communications also show a knowing effort to appease Biden and Harris and effectively assist them in their election efforts. Facebook’s then-Vice President of Global Affairs Nick Clegg reportedly wrote to Vice President of Global Public Policy Joel Kaplan, “[o]bviously, our calls on this could colour the way an incoming Biden administration views us more than almost anything else.”

One of the most interesting communications came from a Facebook employee who recognized that they would be accused of seeking to influence the election:

“When we get hauled up to [Capitol] [H]ill to testify on why we influenced the 2020 elections, we can say we have been meeting for YEARS with USG [the U.S. government] to plan for it.”

The Facebook files go beyond influencing the election.

 At one point, Nick Clegg, the company’s president of global affairs, asked, “Can someone quickly remind me why we were removing—rather than demoting/labeling—claims that Covid is man made.”

The Vice President in charge of content policy responded, “We were under pressure from the administration and others to do more. We shouldn’t have done it.”

Notably, Democrats opposed every effort to seek this information, and Facebook only recently relented in turning over its files years after Elon Musk ordered the release of the “Twitter files.” I raised this issue during the NCC event to counter the glowing self-appraisal of Meta over its record. Despite its claims of transparency, it refused calls from many of us for years to release these files.

When finally forced by the House to do so,  CEO Mark Zuckerberg made a perfunctory apology and moved on.

As shown at the NCC event, it is now spinning its record as a defense of free speech.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Authored by Ed Yardeni & Eric Wallerstein via YardeniQuickTakes.com,

Republican Everett Dirksen was the Senate Minority Leader during the 1960s. Cautioning that federal spending had a way of getting out of control, Dirksen reportedly observed, “A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.” Proponents of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) have been claiming in recent years that the US federal government can run large budget deficits to fund social welfare programs without any serious adverse economic or financial consequences.

MMT’s claim that a government that borrows in its own currency can finance its spending at will with more debt lost credibility as inflation soared in 2022 and 2023. But now it seems to be working. As much as we dislike MMT, we have to admit that tremendous fiscal stimulus by the current administration helped to offset the tightening of monetary policy, thus helping to avert a recession (along with other stimulative forces such as spending by retiring Baby Boomers). Nevertheless, while the y/y inflation rate has subsided, prices are much higher now than at the start of the pandemic (chart).

Even more troubling is that MMT is essentially intergenerational theft. The Baby Boomers enjoyed the benefits of government spending without fully funding such outlays with tax receipts. Meanwhile, they managed to accumulate $79.8 trillion in net worth for themselves (chart).

Presumably, many of their children will inherit what’s left of those funds when their parents pass away. At the same time, the post Baby Boom generation will inherit a huge amount of government debt (chart). Total US public debt is currently $35.5 trillion including $27.7 trillion of US Treasury marketable debt and $7.2 trillion of intragovernmental holdings. The latter are the government’s IOUs to itself to fund its raids on public trust funds such as those for Social Security and Medicare.

That debt will soon be expanding at an annual rate of over $1.0 trillion just to cover the net interest outlays of the Treasury (chart).

We are discussing this topic because the Treasury announced its marketable borrowing estimates today. The projected financing is $546 billion in Q4-2024 and $823 billion during Q1-2025.

Might this explain why the bond yield has risen from 3.62% on September 16 to 4.27% today even though the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50bps on September 18? Yes, of course. We did anticipate this move on better-than-expected economic indicators, not the beginning of another debt crisis as occurred from August to October 2023. We’ve also always said that when the bond market starts to worry about the federal deficit and debt, we will do so too. That may be starting to happen as the bond market recognizes that the November 5 elections won’t change the reckless course of fiscal policy.

For now, we are forecasting that the bond yield will be range-bound between 4.25% and 4.50% through yearend. The S&P 500 should end the year around 5800, where it is now on jitters about the bond market’s response to the next administration.

A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money.

This wasn’t supposed to happen…

Treasury yields have taken off rather dramatically since The Fed slashed rates by 50bps in mid-September…

A few more cuts by the Fed and the average mortgage rate will hit an all time high. pic.twitter.com/3Jllcwnayj

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 30, 2024

…as the market seems to be screaming ‘policy error’ rather loud (or political pandering if you squint a little).

But it’s not just Wall Street that is questioning The Fed’s actions, Main Street is hurting even more as mortgage rates have soared back near recent highs – crushing the optimism that The American Dream is back for some.

As The Fed telegraphed its rate-cut (and then unleashed it), mortgage applications suddenly soared (after stagnating at multi-decade lows for months) amid optimism that the housing market was back and affordability might shift back into realm of possibility for many…

Source: Bloomberg

…but since the rate-cut, mortgage applications have plunged back near recent lows once again as mortgage rates soared back (from two-year lows) above the 7.00% Maginot Line…

Source: Bloomberg

It is a difficult time for home shoppers as they have been whipsawed by mortgage rates and media enthusiasm for The Fed’s actions, but ‘homebuyer confidence’ remains extremely low (especially compared to homebuilder confidence)…

Source: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, the jump in rates serves as a double whammy for homebuyers, choking off affordability and discouraging more owners from listing properties.

The supply of housing has been kept tight by the so-called lock-in effect. Few homeowners are willing to sell if it means taking on a higher mortgage rate.

Source: Bloomberg

“It’s going to put a damper on sales – affordability has gone down and the lock-in effect has increased,” said Scott Buchta, head of fixed income strategy for Brean Capital.

“We think we’ll need a sub-5.5% mortgage rate to unthaw the housing market, which probably doesn’t happen any time soon unless we go into a recession.”

And a recession is not exactly the kind of environment that prompts homebuyers to pile in to their largest debt (asset).

The issue facing homebuyers is not a new one – it’s been in place since the COVID lockdowns – as home prices soared even as mortgage rates exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

“I’m seeing a ton of homes that are overpriced, and you’re seeing multiple price reductions,” said David Lampe, an agent with the Principal Team at Metro Brokers.

That didn’t stop the enthusiasm pushing many to buy and spark upside surprises to recent housing macro data. Sadly, we suspect that decoupling from the reality of mortgage rates will be short-lived…

Source: Bloomberg

The excitement is waning.

“There was a lot of excitement in July, August and September as rates were coming down,” mortgage banker Shant Banosian in Waltham, Massachusetts said.

“When rates start approaching 7%, it changes peoples’ budgets big time.”

Well, rates are back above 7.00% again (well above), and given the recent surge in economic data…

Source: Bloomberg

…another Fed rate-cut in the face of this strength will only worsen the situation (send long-end yields higher and drag mortgage rates higher).

So, be careful what you wish for next week (and we don’t mean on the 5th).

Authored by Zachary Stieber and Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times,

A lawsuit brought against Elon Musk over his randomly selected $1 million giveaways to registered voters has been placed on hold after lawyers for the billionaire removed the case to federal court.

Philadelphia County Court of Common Pleas Judge Angelo Foglietta on Oct. 31 said he was placing the case on hold after Musk’s lawyers late Wednesday removed it to the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania.

Foglietta said during a hearing at Philadelphia’s City Hall that he was divested of jurisdiction because of the move. Musk celebrated the result with a post on his social media platform X that read “American Justice [For The Win].”

Removing cases filed in state courts to federal court is not uncommon, and is done at the prerogative of defendants under federal law. Requirements include removing the cases within 30 days of a complaint being filed.

Federal judges assigned the removed cases can decide whether to keep them in federal court or remand them back to state courts.

Foglietta said that he would be available later in the day if the case was remanded back to him.

Musk’s lawyers said in their removal notice that the case brought by Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner involves significant federal issues and should thus be adjudicated by a U.S. judge.

“While the Complaint purports to raise only state-law claims relating to public nuisance and consumer protection, D.A. Krasner’s claims, as evident on the face of the Complaint, turn principally on the allegation that Defendants are somehow unlawfully interfering with a federal election,” the lawyers said.

Krasner sued Musk and his America PAC, or political action committee, recently over their daily $1 million giveaways to registered voters in Pennsylvania and other swing states. The scheme constitutes an illegal lottery, according to the complaint.

Krasner asked a state court to stop Musk and the America PAC from continuing the giveaways.

“Plaintiff is seeking emergency relief which, in and of itself, would require judicial intervention into the progress of an ongoing federal election,” Musk’s lawyers said in the new filing.

“This, however, a state court cannot do, as the issue of whether a federal political action committee like America PAC—which is focused on making independent expenditures to influence campaigns for federal office, not state or local offices—is exclusively governed by federal law and the First Amendment to the United States Constitution.”

Krasner was present in court but another attorney, John Summers, argued for the district attorney’s office. He maintained that the case was one about state law and could proceed in the claims court. Musk’s attempt to remove the case was cowardly and irresponsible, he said.

Musk, Summers suggested, was attempting to use procedural maneuvers to run out the clock and avoid accountability because the law and facts weren’t on his side. Summers also cast doubt on the idea that Musk’s giveaway was random, noting at least four have come from Pennsylvania.

If the giveaway were random, Summers said, it was definitely a lottery. The PAC, he alleged, was luring people in to give it their personal information. The type of personal information it sought, he added, was often bought and sold among tech companies.

A lawyer for Musk argued that his client wasn’t a proper defendant in the case and that the prosecution should focus on America PAC, instead of one of its donors. Summers responded in part by highlighting Musk’s role in announcing and promoting the contest.

“The 800-pound gorilla here is actually Elon Musk,” he told Foglietta.

Summers also decried as outrageous a post on X in which Musk suggested Foglietta was a leftist judge.

Musk did not appear at the hearing. Foglietta said that if the case ended up back in his court, Musk would be required to attend in the future.

We will provide a more detailed jobs report preview tonight, but following a catastrophic JOLTS report yesterday and a stellar weekly jobs report today, there appears to be a crescendo of confusion over what to expect tomorrow, with some saying a blowout number is coming while others are bracing for a negative print. So here is a quick take on what may be coming.

October’s US non-farm payrolls will hit the wires tomorrow morning, just 4 days days ahead of the US presidential election. As SocGen’s Albert Edwards notes, amid scepticism about the recent strength of the data, a shockingly weak ‘payback’ month will make news headlines and likely affect the election outcome.

It all started with Fed Governor Waller who two weeks ago first warned of a huge one-time drop in this month’s jobs report:

I will be looking for more evidence to support this outlook in the weeks and months to come. But, unfortunately, it won’t be easy to interpret the October jobs report to be released just before the next FOMC meeting. This report will most likely show a significant but temporary loss of jobs from the two recent hurricanes and the strike at Boeing. I expect these factors may reduce employment growth by more than 100,000 this month, and there may be a small effect on the unemployment rate, but I’m not sure it will be that visible. Since the jobs report will come during the usual blackout period for policymakers commenting on the economy, you won’t have any of us trying to put this low reading into perspective, though I hope others will.

The baton of a payroll plunge preannouncement was then handed over to the Biden admin’s favorite house economist Claudia Sahm – who is invoke to call “Sahm Rule” (which she stole from fromer Goldman economist Ed McKelvey) recessions when a Republican is in the White House… just not a Democrat –  thinks an outright decline in October payrolls is plausible because of the impact of recent hurricanes and the Boeing strike.This is how she explains it:

Let’s start by assuming that the underlying pace of payroll gains is back to its 2017-19 average of 183,000 per month. (The dark blue bar on the left below). Setting aside the hurricanes and Boeing strike, the initial estimates are always imprecise. The 90% confidence interval based on survey sampling error is +/- 130,000. (The light blue bars.) So, even if payrolls were on trend, the estimate range could be large.

The orange bars to the right subtract 100,000 off the trend for Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the Boeing strike. When the confidence interval is added, the 90% lower bound is almost -50,000. A negative print would ruffle some feathers, but at least in this example, it could be consistent with a solidly growing labor market.

And then there is the White House itself: yesterday, Biden’s top economic adviser Lael Brainard, explicitly warned that the White House is expecting a lower US non-farm payroll reading on Friday, covering October, because of disruptive strikes and hurricane impact (consensus expects only a 110k gain after September’s unexpectedly high 254k).

To be sure, there is a reason to preannounce a negative print: that way when it does hit, regime and establishment economists can say “we told you so”, and “just ignore it” because it is all one time (they will also tell you to ignore the sudden, 6-sigma collapse in job openings and quits, but that’s another story).

The problem with this is that it may not work. As Edwards writes, “readers with long, baby-boomer memories might recall the 1970 UK general election when the then Labour PM Harold Wilson was expected to win by a landslide, but had the rug pulled out from under him by shockingly poor trade data (which used to matter) – see article here.

The bottom line is that very poor economic data – and in the case of a negative jobs print it would truly be a shock as the last time we got that was back in 2020 – released just ahead of an election can really hurt the incumbent. Indeed, the surprisingly weak September JOLTS data suggests that a very weak payroll report on Friday morning is entirely plausible, even if that probability was somewhat diluted by today’s unexpectedly strong initial jobless claims report.

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Something wicked this way comes.” Those words from William Shakespeare’s “Macbeth” capture the approach of Halloween.

Traced to the Celtic festival of Samhain to mark the end of the harvest, pagans would often summon the dead. Halloween today more often summons contingency lawyers by the gross. If there is a holy holiday for personal injury lawyers it is Halloween with its mix of slip-and-falls, food liability, and costume defects.

After all, what can go wrong with a holiday celebrated at night with millions in ill-fitting costumes handing out tons of foodstuffs to strangers?

This year, it is already producing its share of spooky torts.

In Queens, a haunted house was shut down after various people filed lawsuits over being injured. “A Haunting in Hollis” was called “a death trap” by the Fire Department, but not the fun kind. The converted two-family home was accused of such attractions as the ankle shatterer.

Solainne Mancero-Tannis of Jamaica, Queens, says she was at the house with her family when she went down “Satan’s Slope.” The slide in a pitch-black space allegedly hurled her into a concrete wall at the bottom, shattering her ankles.

The FDNY has since allowed the house to re-open with improvements.

Sometimes, Haunted Houses are a bit too haunted, even for the trained eye.

Take the case of Sgt. Eric Janik, 37, who went to a haunted house called the House of Screams when he was confronted by a character dressed as Leatherface with a chainsaw. Janik pulled out his service weapon and pointed it at the man, who dropped character and fled the house.

This year, an employee, Anora Jenkins, was working at a haunted attraction in Tennessee when she jumped up to scare a group, and a frightened man slugged her, sending her to the hospital. AMS Haunted Attractions said that spooked customers assaulted several of its actors.

Some haunted homes can be a tad too improvisational. In Dickson v. Hustonville Haunted House and Greg Walker,  Glenda Dickson, 51, broke four vertebrae in her back when she fell out of the second-story window left open at the Hustonville Haunted House. She was in a room called “The Crying Lady in the Bed” when one of the actors came up behind the group and started screaming. Dickson jumped back through an open window covered with only a sheet.

Halloween can bring out the best and worst of people, even neighbors.

A few years ago in Florida, a woman filed a defamation and emotional distress lawsuit after her neighbor set up decorations that included a fake tombstone that read, “At 48 she had no mate no date/ It’s no debate she looks 88.”

This year, another woman in Ohio took a more direct approach in Toledo. On Oct. 7, the woman went on a rampage in the front yard of the home of the Zeller family with their extensive Halloween decorations.

Over half an hour, she caused roughly $1,000 in damages, including destroying cherished family items. Police arrested 48-year-old Christina Horvath, who is also accused of stealing some items.  Yet, the Zellers are not literally giving up the ghost. They put up a sign reading “She Came in Like A Wreckin’ Ball” next to a skeleton riding a wrecking ball.

Each year, costumes produce a slew of jump scare lawsuits from demon eye contact lenses that can actually blind you to this year’s witch hats that can turn into flaming headwear. In New York a few years ago, Sherri Perper, 56, of Queens, New York, filed a personal injury lawsuit due to defective shoes allegedly acquired from Forum Novelties. The shoes were over-sized clown shoes that she said made her trip and fall because they were . . . well … oversized.

I admit that my house is one of those over-the-top Halloween houses. As a torts professor, I try to walk the line between a fun attraction and an attractive nuisance.

Indeed, I have contemplated the ultimate jump scare of meeting children with a notary, and a waiver form covering everything from slips to nut allergies.  There are simply some scenes that are too scary for the young and old alike.

So welcome to the most hallowed holiday for lawyers. Have fun but it is strictly BYOC, bring your own counsel.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Michigan officials have charged a Chinese national for illegally voting in the 2024 US election at an early voting site in Ann Arbor on Oct. 27.

A clerk alerted officials to the voter, a Chinese student, leading to an investigation. They were charged with one count of “unauthorized elector attempting to vote” and one count of perjury for “making a false affidavit for the purpose of securing voter registration.”

“Only U.S. citizens can register and vote in our elections. It is illegal to lie on any registration forms or voting applications about one’s citizenship status. Doing so is a felony,” said the office of Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit on Oct. 30.

This past May, Michigan Secretary of State @JocelynBenson went on camera to tell us that ONLY U.S. Citizens vote in U.S. elections.

In unrelated news, the Detroit News JUST reported TODAY that a Chinese citizen voted in the U.S. election. https://t.co/v6KAjyM3bQ

— Rudy W. Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani) October 30, 2024

Officials insisted that non-citizen voting was “an extremely isolated and rare event.”

“Investigations in multiple states and nationwide have found no evidence of large numbers of noncitizens registering to vote. Even less common is a noncitizen actually casting a ballot. When it does happen, we take it extremely seriously. Our elections are secure and Michigan’s state and local election officials carefully follow the law,” said officials, who noted that voting records are public – and attempts by noncitizens to vote fraudulently will be exposed, and said fraudulent voters prosecuted. (What about mail-in ballots? Eh?)

The Chinese national, 19, had registered to vote on Sunday – using his student ID and other documentation to establish residency. He also signed a document attesting to being a US citizen. The student later contacted the city clerk’s office and attempted to retract the illegal vote, according to Benson’s office – however his ballot had already been processed through the tabulator.

Michigan AG Dana Nessel has also opened an investigation into the matter.

Rep. John Moolenaar (R-MI) called on Benson’s office to announce a plan to “prevent similar election fraud in the next week” and “secure our elections against CCP interference,” the Epoch Times notes. “The University of Michigan should expel this student for violating our laws and our state’s leaders need to take serious action against the Chinese Communist Party’s attempts to influence our state.”

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via modernity.news,

Illegal immigrants traveling through South America are desperately trying to cross the US border before the election, saying they won’t attempt to enter the country if Donald Trump wins.

The Telegraph interviewed a number of migrants out of around 2,000 people who had set off from Tapachula, a Mexican city located in the south of the country near the border with Guatemala.

According to the report, the migrants have set off with the intention of getting to the US border with Mexico before November 5th, and having their asylum claims processed before Trump is potentially inaugurated in January.

A second convoy will set off on November 5th in order to send a message “so Joe Biden and Kamala Harris know we are heading their way.”

Trump has vowed to secure the border and oversee a program of mass deportations, as well as vowing to impose the death penalty for migrants who kill US citizens.

Early signs are that such a deterrent will work to stem the flood of illegal migrants, according to the migrants themselves.

‘I would like to arrive before Donald Trump wins’

On the road with an army of 2,000 migrants rushing to America before Trump can retake the White House https://t.co/Gn8TtCRfWe

— Dee (@dili909) October 30, 2024

“We were waiting for the [asylum] appointment but then with the election all these applications will be closed and we are running out of time. The applications are being paused or cancelled but the border will be open,” said one woman.

“If Donald Trump gets in office again, it will be much tougher,” she added.

38-year-old Guatemalan Rohmal Silva, who was deported from the US in 2018 for a drunk driving conviction, said, “If Donald Trump wins I think I am never going to go back. I am trying to get back before the inauguration. I left Guatemala two weeks ago. I could see the election was coming.”

“I worry about Donald Trump because the law is going to change a lot and it is going to be more hard to go back to the United States,” he added.

40-year-old Haitian migrant Jude Joseph also told the newspaper, “If I make this CBP One and I get the chance I will go [to the US]. I don’t know exactly if I will get a chance if Donald Trump will be president.”

28-year-old Juan Jose Arcila, who said he was trying to get to Denver, Colorado “because I like the name,” summed up the sentiment amongst migrants when he stated, “At this point our future is not certain. I would like to arrive before Donald Trump [wins]. He will make coming into the country more complicated. That is what everybody is afraid of.”

So basically, a Trump win will go a long way to fixing the border issue merely based on the fact that large numbers of illegals simply won’t endeavor to make the journey in the first place.

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Using surprisingly blunt words which are clearly a warning and a threat, the United States envoy to the UN, Robert Wood, has said that North Korean forces entering Ukraine “will surely return in body bags.”

Wood issued the words while speaking before the UN security council on Wednesday. He said that if Pyongyang’s forces “enter Ukraine in support of Russia, they will surely return in body bags.” He then warned, “I would advise Chairman Kim [Jong-un] to think twice about engaging in such reckless and dangerous behavior.”

Over the past couple of weeks it has been widely reported that some 10,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, having arrived at Russia’s far eastern port of Vladivostok.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin separately addressed the issue in a Wednesday briefing, saying from the Pentagon, “I call upon them to withdraw their troops out of Russia” – in reference to the North Koreans.

Austin described that the United States will “continue to work with allies and partners to discourage Russia from employing these troops in combat.”

Earlier this week the White House said these foreign forces would become “legitimate military targets” if they enter the fight against Ukraine.

Austin in follow-up also affirmed that the NK troops would be “co-belligerents, and you have every reason to believe that …they will be killed and wounded as a result of battle.”

But Austin also forewarned Ukraine and the Western allies that despite all of these repeat warnings, there remains a “good likelihood” that Moscow is still going to move forward.

He explained that if North Korean troops “are fighting alongside Russian soldiers in this conflict and attacking Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian soldiers have the right to defend themselves.”

Ukraine has thus far alleged that these forces are helping Russia to establish control in Kursk province, which has seen Ukrainian forces occupy broad swathes of land since the risky cross-border incursion which began in early August:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is expecting clashes between North Korean and Ukrainian troops within days.

In an interview with the Korean Broadcasting System, the national broadcaster of South Korea, Zelensky said: “So far, North Korean troops have not participated in battles. They are preparing to participate in battles (in Kursk).”

Earlier this week NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also put Moscow and Pyongyang on notice, saying “The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security.” He claimed further that “The deployment [of] North Korean troops to Kursk is also a sign of Putin’s growing desperation.”

North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile, upgrading what it called the ‘world’s most powerful strategic weapon,’ as Seoul warned Pyongyang could get missile technology from Russia for helping with the war in Ukraine https://t.co/SL1xbwcOmP pic.twitter.com/dXbnCCwmR3

— Reuters (@Reuters) October 31, 2024

The Kremlin has since then appeared to admit some level of North Korean military troop assistance related to the Ukraine conflict: 

In a response, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed to a security and defense treaty signed by Moscow and Pyongyang in June.

“We have said many times that the treaty is not secret, it is public, the entire text has been published, and it in no way violates any provisions of international law, because it involves, among other things, the providing of assistance in case one of the countries that is a party to the treaty is militarily attacked,” he told a press conference in Moscow, in comments reported by the Interfax news agency.

Lavrov added: “So our position here is absolutely honest and open.” But nothing has been disclosed in terms details of precisely where DPRK soldiers might be operating.