Month: October 2024

Is the expected Israeli attack on Iran on hold until at least after the weekend? It sure looks that way…

“Mossad chief David Barnea will travel to Doha on Sunday to try to restart discussions on a deal to release Israeli hostages held in Gaza and halt the war between Israel and Palestinian terror group Hamas,” Israeli media reports Thursday.

CIA chief Bill Burns is also headed to the Gulf, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken is already holding meetings with allied Gulf officials in Doha.

Netanyahu’s office has confirmed that the Mossad chief will meet with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, alongside the CIA’s Burns.

“At the meeting, the parties will discuss the various options for advancing the negotiations for the release of the hostages held by Hamas, against the backdrop of recent developments,” the Israeli prime minister’s office said.

On and off negotiations of the past several months made zero progress, which each side blaming the other for thwarting the potential for ceasefire in Gaza.

These new expected weekend efforts seem doomed to the same fate – the only difference being that Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar is dead.

This raises a crucial question: who is calling the shots on the Hamas side? Speculation has landed on the man who has been the main political spokesman in the wake of Sinwar’s death in Rafah earlier this month:

The officials said that Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy and the group’s most senior official outside Gaza, is considered a strong candidate.

Al-Hayya, who is based in Qatar, currently leads the Hamas delegation in ceasefire talks between the group and Israel, and possesses a deep knowledge, connection and understanding of the situation in Gaza.

After Yahya Sinwar’s assassination, three terrorists are seen as potential contenders for the new leadership of Hamas:

1.Khaled Meshaal – The former leader who preceded Haniyeh. He supported the anti-Assad uprising, making it unlikely for Tehran to back him.
2.Khalil al-Hayya –… pic.twitter.com/ruCcToKoaa

— Huang (@YHWHpuren) October 18, 2024

Kickstarting these new high level negotiations again could just be a political tactic by Netanyahu and Mossad, given the ongoing pressure from the hostage victims’ families to get the captives freed.

There’s also the US election, less than two weeks away, and the Biden-Harris administration perhaps needs to show some level of a diplomatic ‘win’ or at least ‘progress’ that they can put before the voting public. But amid very heavy fighting in northern Gaza, and reports of famine spreading in the south, all of this seems too little too late.

Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

International Man: Whether it’s at the grocery store, the mall, restaurants, or airports—anywhere you turn—people are finding inferior goods and services at higher prices.

Living standards have taken a big step backward recently and are trending even worse.

What is really going on?

Doug Casey: There’s an inclination on the part of people to blame the producers of products—the butcher, the baker, and the gasoline maker—but that’s actually very silly, insofar as these people create real wealth.

They’re fighting the effects of government inflation, which doesn’t create anything but fiat currency and fiat credit, which is what actually takes the prices higher. In fact, inflation of the currency, which is to say an increase in the amount of purchasing media above the increase in real wealth. It’s what inflation is all about; it’s the State subtly stealing capital and wealth from individuals.

The big problem with the depreciation of the dollar is that producers are blamed as being the problem. They’re the solution to the problem in that they create real wealth. The real enemy here is the State and its central bank, the Fed.

International Man: How does inflation erode ethical standards, leading people to cut corners, lie, cheat, or even steal as they try to maintain their living standards?

Doug Casey: The prime directive of life is to survive, and entities, whether they be governments, corporations, or individuals. They will basically do whatever they have to do to survive.

Unfortunately, inflation is all about theft, subtle and hard to diagnose as it is, but theft breeds more theft.

Leaders of any organization, whether it be governments or corporations, set the moral tone. The average person may not understand much about economics, which is the study of how men produce and consume in order to survive, but they have an intuitive, even if not a technical, understanding of it.

Inflation, the theft of people’s wealth, eventually leads to revolution and overturning of society itself.

International Man: How does inflation contribute to a more litigious society, with people increasingly looking to take money from others through the legal system?

Doug Casey: Once again, the average person doesn’t understand economics very well, but he does understand that some people in modern society are getting rich without producing anything. And, they’re benefiting from the subtle fiat currency creation.

In any event, they diagnosed that there’s a theft going on. In a society based less and less on production and more and more on the theft of pre-existing wealth, it’s natural enough that it becomes a Hobbesian war of all against all where counter-theft takes place through the legal system as opposed to actual physical violence.

It’s very much like Al Capone said. “One thug can rob a gas station of $100, and if he’s caught, he’ll go to jail for years. But a lawyer with a pen can rob a country of a million and never get caught.” That’s what’s going on.

The system has become entirely corrupt, and the government, which is supposed to protect the individual man, is actually the main culprit in stealing money from him. The fact that the US has over a million practicing lawyers is a symptom of corruption where people are using the legal system to steal.

International Man: What are some historical examples of inflation leading to significant social and cultural degradation, and what lessons can we learn from them?

Doug Casey: The destruction of the currency usually leads to a social upset because people who’ve produced in their lives and saved the difference do so with the national currency. But if the national currency is destroyed, everything they’ve worked for throughout their lives is also destroyed.

Inflation upsets the entire basis of civilized society. It was a major reason why Chiang Kai-shek’s regime collapsed in China after World War II and a major reason why the Communists, whatever else they’ve done to their society in China, have been reasonably competent managers of their own currency.

The Weimar Republic in Germany after World War I completely destroyed the mark, and the social upset that it caused led to rioting in the streets between the Nazis and the Communists, and of course, the Nazis won.

Some countries suffer from perennial inflation, which results in a constant attempt to take over the government.

People find that when real wealth becomes hard to produce, there’s an inclination to go into politics to gain wealth and power as opposed to producing things. It’s why countries with unstable currencies become unstable socially, economically, and politically as well.

International Man: You have frequently discussed how to protect yourself from inflation’s financial and economic effects with gold and other hard assets.

However, aside from the financial effects, how do people protect themselves from inflation’s negative social, cultural, and political effects we’ve discussed today?

Doug Casey: The most important thing that you can do is gain skills, lots of skills, both in breadth and in depth so that no matter how things are sorted out, you’ll always be in a position to produce things that people want.

I’d like to share Robert Heinlein’s quote about what somebody should be able to do.

“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”

I suggest that there’s a practical path to doing that, to qualifying yourself to thrive no matter which way the economy evolves. And for 90% of the people, it’s not sitting at a college desk for four years listening to a woke professor drone on about politically correct topics.

I suggest you subscribe to Matt Smith’s son Maxim’s blog, where he describes, on an ongoing basis, exactly what he’s doing to educate himself instead of going to college.

For many years, I’ve considered college to be a complete misallocation, even worse, a waste of four of the best years of your life and a lot of money to have your head filled with incorrect ideas, which are hard to wash away.

So, the answer to the question is to prepare yourself intellectually, psychologically, and skill-wise.

It’ll put you in a position to produce more than you consume. And what we usually talk about in this newsletter is what you do with the wealth that you save so it’s not inflated away by your government.

*  *  *

The truth is, we’re on the cusp of an economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. And most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released a free report with all the details on how to survive an economic collapse. Click here to download the PDF now.

It has been over three weeks since Iran attacked Israel with huge ballistic missile strikes which numbered up to 200 projectiles, including alleged hypersonic missiles. At this point, one wonders whether Israel’s promised ‘retaliation’ strike will even take place by October’s end. Israeli officials have indicated it will happen before the US presidential election, however.

Israel’s military continues to telegraph the coming attack, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday having told pilots and air crews upon a visit to an air force base that “after we strike in Iran, everyone will understand what you did in the preparation and training process.”

A new report in Britain’s The Times newspaper claims that the potential retaliatory attack was delayed further when US intelligence on Israel’s preparations were leaked and made public.

“Israel is concerned the leak could help Iran predict certain patterns of attack,” The Times writes. “It has been forced to develop an alternative plan, one that requires detailed war gaming before any order is given, The Times understands.”

“The leak of the American documents delayed the attack due to the need to change certain strategies and components,” an intelligence source described as having knowledge of Israeli deliberations said.

“There will be a retaliation, but it has taken longer than it was supposed to take,” the source told The Times.

The pair of documents were marked top secret and first appeared online Friday, and following an Axios report which verified their authenticity made headlines across the globe. They were authored by the Department of Defense National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the NSA.

One of the documents tracked the movements of heavy Israeli munitions from US spy satellites. “It made reference to Golden Horizon and Rocks, two Israeli air-launched ballistic missiles,” The Times notes – hence the concern over Iranians possibly being able to recognize ‘patterns’ on weapons movements based on the leak.

Officials have called this the most serious intelligence breach in years, which could damage the US-Israel intelligence sharing relationship.

Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and a retired CIA officer, explained to CNN that “the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged as well. Trust is a key component in the relationship, and depending on how this was leaked that trust could be eroded.”

Oh dear. Did someone at NGA leak Top Secret TALENT KEYHOLE FIVE EYES NO FOREIGN EYES intelligence about Israel’s nuclear weapons…on Twitter? pic.twitter.com/3lyKWFCmUw

— Eric Garland (@ericgarland) October 20, 2024

Internal investigations have looked at the possibility that the leak was through a “Five Eyes” partner – which is the intelligence alliance composed of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Reports have stated that the FBI and DoD believe the leak most likely came through an individual with clearance, and not a cyber intrusion or foreign hack. Given reports say that at least one of the documents was printed via a classified printer, it’s likely on a matter of time before the leaker is caught.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A U.S. Navy veteran who is suing CNN for defamation did not commit any illegal acts when he helped people evacuate from Afghanistan, according to an Oct. 22 ruling.

Zachary Young sued CNN in 2022 after the network aired segments about him and others who became involved in private evacuation efforts in Afghanistan after the Taliban took over the country. At one point, emblazoned over one of Young’s messages about facilitating evacuations for a fee, CNN said that “Afghans trying to flee Taliban face black markets, exorbitant fees, [and] no guarantee of safety or success.”

“The Court can conclude that Young did not act criminally or illegally,” Bay County Judge William S. Henry wrote in Tuesday’s ruling.

As the case heads toward trial after several rulings in favor of Young, he asked the court to declare that the term “black market” means an illegal market, that CNN’s statements about black markets concerned Young and that Young never did anything illegal or operated on a black market.

CNN in filings said Young committed illegal acts, pointing to how the Taliban barred Afghans from exiting Afghanistan without permission.

“Discovery has indicated that those activities he orchestrated and funded, which involved moving women out of Afghanistan, almost certainly were illegal under Taliban rule,” CNN said in one filing.

The network also said that Young operated in an unregulated private market for evacuation services.

Henry declined to agree that “black market” means an illegal market. He also said that he was not determining at this time whether Young operated in a black market.

“Since black market is not being defined as a matter of law, the Court cannot conclude that Young did not operate in a black market or that the reporting was false,” he said.

The judge then rebuffed CNN’s position that being illegal was equivalent to opposing the Taliban or Sharia law.

“There is nothing in the record to suggest that any Taliban or Sharia law which would restrict the movement of persons (especially women) within or out of Afghanistan was properly enacted, adopted or recognized law to even suggest that evacuating individuals from Afghanistan was a criminal or illegal activity,” Henry said.

“In fact, the only information contained in the record suggests that formal adoption of any rules restricting travel within or out of Afghanistan did not occur until 2024—almost three years after the publications in this case.”

CNN has also acknowledged that its reporting did not uncover illegal or criminal activity by Young, so “there is no dispute as to material fact that Young did not act illegally or criminally,” the judge said.

The judge also ruled that some of CNN’s statements about black markets concerned Young, but not all.

“The Court’s ruling is an important step forward as we prepare for trial this January,” Devin Freedman, Young’s lawyer, told The Epoch Times in an email.

A lawyer representing CNN did not respond to a request for comment.

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

During a critical stage of the Manhattan Project in 1942, its organizers ran into a problem while attempting to build those first atomic bombs.

They had figured out a way to enrich uranium using electromagnets, but it was a highly resource-intensive process.

Thousands of tons of copper were needed to create electromagnetic coils, but the metal was in short supply due to its use in weapons production. Copper was needed for shell casings, coatings, wiring and other applications.

Thus the leaders of the Manhattan Project decided to secretly borrow 300 million ounces of 0.999% silver from the Treasury Department.

As the most conductive metal in the world, silver was the ideal material for the job. It made highly efficient wire coils, which created the powerful magnetic fields needed to separate and enrich uranium.

In all, 14,700 tons of US silver was melted down and forged into the massive electromagnetic coils used to build the nation’s initial nuclear arsenal. Nearly 1% of the entire nation’s electric capacity was directed toward these efforts, and the silver coils ensured an efficient use of it.

Source: Phys.org

Needless to say, the project was successful and by 1970 the silver was returned to the Treasury Department.

So in a strange way, America’s silver reserves played a role in ending World War II, which set the stage for America’s ascent to premier global superpower. Without it, the war effort would have been delayed, either by a lack of ammunition, or later development of the A-bomb.

Silver Breaks Out as Russia Buys

Silver coinage in the US ended in 1965. And by the late 1970s, America had sold off almost all of its silver reserves.

Today, nations no longer hold silver as a monetary or strategic asset.

Until now, that is. The Russian government recently announced it would begin adding silver to its precious metal reserves. Allow me to explain why this is a fascinating development.

Russia certainly is isolated from the West. But within the BRICS+ and Global South, its influence has never been greater. Russia is playing a leading role in building the BRICS’ alternative to the dollar-based monetary system. It has no choice, as it has been cut off from the legacy system.

There’s a good chance that other countries will follow Russia’s example and begin building their own strategic silver stashes.

It makes sense for nations to build reserves of silver bullion. As we saw during the Manhattan Project, silver can come in handy in a pinch. Most nations have a strategic oil reserve. Every serious central bank has gold reserves. Why not silver too?

In today’s technological world, silver is more important than ever. It’s critical for building advanced electronics, batteries, solar panels, medical supplies, and more. Additionally, modern weapons require silver to operate at the highest level. When precision and efficiency truly matter, silver is the clear choice.

Following this news out of Russia, it’s probably not a coincidence that silver has broken out to 12-year highs.

Source: Bloomberg

As you can see, silver broke through resistance around the $32.50 level with gusto.

In Silver: So Much Bigger Than 2011, I explained how the fundamentals for silver demand already looked excellent before Russia’s announcement.

Now we have the possibility of national buyers jumping on board. This could create massive demand, as we have seen with gold’s recent run, which is almost entirely driven by central banks (see Metal Mania Starts Soon for more on that).

In contrast, silver’s bull run so far has been driven primarily by industrial demand for solar panels, electronics, and medical uses. But as I argued in my last article on silver, I believe investment demand will grow rapidly from here.

In the US, inflation expectations are soaring. The Fed is back in easy money mode, and investors are finally beginning to sense something significant happening in precious metals.

Silver is a tiny market compared to gold. A small amount of additional investment demand may upset the balance and send prices far higher. If we see nations buying silver, along with additional investor demand, the result could be explosive.

If we get a significant economic recession, silver could fall temporarily due to lower industrial demand. But in my view, that should be offset by the increase in investment demand as central banks are forced to respond to the slowdown with quantitative easing (QE) and other inflationary policies.

Silver looks fantastic as a long-term investment and hedge here. Personally, I don’t plan on selling any before it’s in the triple digits.

Kevin Warsh, Hoover Institution distinguished visiting fellow and former Federal Reserve Governor, said the quiet part out loud this morning during an interview with CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ when he dared to offer a logical rebuttal of the over-arching narrative that a) The Fed is apolitical/independent, b) The Fed is data dependent, and c) The Fed knows what it is doing…

Warsh began by explaining why he thinks The Fed’s decision to cut 50bps goes against what The Fed had been saying regarding their policy.

“They’ve had different theories about the cause of inflation and the measures they use, and people in the financial markets have tried to follow them,” Warsh begins, then clarifying several of those measures still being significantly far away from The Fed’s mandated 2% goals.

“…a few years ago they were for flexible average inflation targeting. When inflation was at 1.7%, they said ‘we’ll get it a little higher and try to balance around 2%’…” but Warsh notes “they seem to have gotten rid of that idea without replacing it.”

“They don’t have a broad new strategy,” he quipped, noting that The Fed then said:

“Core PCE – that’s what we should focus on (but it’s not running around 2.7%, nowhere near their 2% target.”

The Fed is constantly changing:

“About a year ago, they said the best measure of inflation is now – they created a new category they called ‘Core Services Ex Housing’… well that’s in the 4% range now…“

Previously Janet Yellen said what really matters – and is embedded in The Fed model is ‘wages‘.

Wages running around 3% is consistent with inflation running around 25, but as Warsh points out, wages are running around 4% growth currently.

“So all of this is to say that The Fed doesn’t seem to have a serious theory of inflation that’s theoretical and empirical… It’s not obvious they acknowledge what their role is in prices, instead claiming it has something to do with wars and pandemics.”

Translation: The Fed’s 50bps rate-cut has no basis in the data.

Warsh has a warning:

“In a world this dangerous, with fiscal policy so irresponsible, the central bank needs to be very clear about its reaction function, be clear about its goals , and not look like its lurching… because that’s what put ius in the mes we have.”

While CNBC’s Becky Quick makes the point that The Fed has dual mandates and from time to time needs to shift its focus from inflation to jobs, she also admits that currently the labor market looks anything but weak and in need of a 50bps cut.

Warsh remarks that The Fed “has claimed that they are data dependent and when times change, they should change… of course… BUT the data since the early part of the summer has gotten better…

…the economy has gotten stronger…

…the broad sense of the data is the economy is in better shape.”

So, says Warsh, ready to drop the bombshell: “if that’s all true, maybe they’re not data-dependent.”

“I do not want to be the person accusing them of politics … but when you don’t have a theory of the case and you don’t follow it, it is easy to get that accusation and it is harder … to defend them.”

With Sorkin speechless, Conservative-leaning Joe Kernen piped in to ask whether The Fed should push back against their apparent gatekeepers in Congress when they let the house get out of hand?

“When [The Fed] kept interest rates at zero for a decade and did QE… buying the bonds of the Treasury, they decided to more or less make that permanent feature – it is The Fed wondered into politics on a permanent basis,“ the former Fed governor admits, adding that “in a period of free money, what was the clear message to Congress – ‘you can spend all the money you want’.. and so they did.”

The Fed “encouraged the spending boom… and has put the country in a much more dangerous place.”

“The central bank is playing a much more prominent role in the financial markets and wanting to – not just in crisis times – but for all seasons and all reasons.”

The Fed’s “framework is unanchored,” Warsh continued, unburdened by what has been, noting that they seem to be “pursuing different objectives that are often at cross-purposes.”

He ends with a simple example…

“they are now seeming to loosen the policy rate to provide more accommodation… but at the same time they are still in some modest quantitative tightening of the balance sheet… which is tightening financial conditions… and the rest of the world is watching…”

As we show in the following chart, financial conditions are at their ‘easiest’ since The Fed started HIKING rates… and yet they keep arguing that rates are restrictive.

As former Fed governor Warsh says – where’s the ‘restrictions’?

Watch the full interview below:

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Nobody actually directly reads anything

More US opinion polls are out: a mixed bunch but including a Wall Street Journal Trump +2, which is not just an electoral college, but a large popular vote win. More US early voting data is in: again, the story from Nevada and Georgia in particular looks good for Trump so far. While markets are taking a breather from the ‘Trump trade’ for the moment, yesterday saw the US 10-year yield hit 4.25% and USD/JPY push past 153, with that kind of action finally catching up with stocks for once, which dipped. It really needs to be underlined how out-of-the-ordinary it is to see yields soar and the dollar rip, alongside gold, after the Fed starts cutting with a 50bp move. These are far from ordinary times.

That is underlined by the current ‘ludicrous speed’ phase of the US election, where today’s headlines allege more Trump sex scandal from 30 years ago and a link to Jeffrey Epstein, while VP Harris compared him to Hitler and fascism: Trump has long called Harris a Marxist. All of this leaves the parts of the world wanting proper policy analysis and debate, and especially those with painfully vivid memories of Nazism and Marxism, despairing of Godwin’s Law and US electoral hyperbole that confuses an already historically illiterate generation into thinking “Arbeit macht fries.” For once the market’s stoic lack of interest in politics around it pays dividends.

What was worth paying attention to was a US Beige Book that noted “On balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early September… Despite elevated uncertainty, contacts were somewhat more optimistic about the longer-term outlook.” Which hardly screams “50 BASIS POINTS!” Neither does the labor market, where the view was, “On balance, employment increased slightly during this reporting period…Wages generally continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace. With the improvement in worker availability, contacts in multiple Districts pointed to a slowdown in the pace of wage increases. Still, larger than usual pay increases were reported for some workers.” Indeed, Boeing workers just turned down a 35% proposed pay hike by a 2-1 vote, and a logistics expert says there is an 80% chance that the globally disruptive ILA US east coast port strike will restart on 15 January.

That might flow through to views on inflation, where the Beige Book said things “continued to moderate with selling prices reportedly increasing at a slight or modest pace in most Districts. Still, the prices of some food products, such as eggs and dairy, were reported to have increased more sharply… Contacts across several industries noted more acute pressures from rising insurance and healthcare costs. Multiple Districts reported that input prices generally rose faster than selling prices, compressing firms’ profit margins.”

Let’s put that against what we saw/heard in other places:

• The BOC met expectations by slashing rates 50bps, the most since March 2020, to 3.75%, declaring high inflation over. Except for house prices(?), where lower rates will help generate a recovery: exactly what an unaffordable market needs when wage growth will likely track inflation lower. CAD dipped and the 2-year Canadian yield briefly slipped below 3%.

• South Korea’s finance minister commented, and retracted, that 1,400 in USD/KRW was a “new normal”, not a crisis (and, reportedly, that the BOK couldn’t raise rates to protect the currency).

• The BOJ’s Ueda hinted at more rate hikes and risks from being overly cautious; but getting this right “Keeps me awake 24/7.” Not only him. The election result this weekend is also a wild card.

• ECB speaker dovishness is evident too, with traders starting to speculate we might even see a 50bp Eurozooka for Christmas – which our expert Eurozone team are sceptical of.

• The UK Chancellor is to reinterpret the fiscal rules so an extra £50bn in capex is possible by measuring government net liabilities vs. assets like student loans people may default on. Looser fiscal policy could imply less need for looser BOE monetary policy, but BOE Governor Bailey just underlined inflation is cooling faster than expected, suggesting more Carry On Cutting.

• RBNZ Governor Orr bewailed, “I haven’t really talked to anyone who’s ever actually directly read the Monetary Policy Statement or the record of the meeting. Most people get it second-hand, filtered through a journalist’s mindset or a financial analyst’s position talking.” Here’s an open secret: journalists and analysts often don’t read the originals either! “Mindsets” are often pre-set.

That mindset, until recently, was that the Fed would lead the monetary policy charge, and everyone else would follow in synchronised fashion, but less aggressively. Are we now finally pricing for the Fed *not* being the most dovish major central bank, as it’s constrained to the downside looking at US yields, while most others are more constrained to the upside? The ‘Trump trade’ is dollar positive and shouts higher US yields; that drags everyone else’s yields up to some extent even if their economies can’t take it, unless they cut rates by more. Trump potentially using the Fed like the Reichsbank (I’ve been saying MEFO for years) has one hypothetical implication of a much steeper US curve; and of a much weaker US dollar; yet combined with a trade war that dries up global exporters’ dollar earnings, another is abundant dollar liquidity inside the US, but scarce greenbacks outside it, so a kind of USD-Y/USD-H à la Chinoise.

That would likely trigger major geopolitical issues few in markets are focusing on, but which the BRICS were all just discussing.

On which note, Israel’s Defense Minister Gallant just stated that planned airstrikes on BRICS member Iran -whom China has just pledged to develop “friendly cooperation” with- “will make the world understand its military might”, which doesn’t sound like a bluff from a man who understands deterrence. In terms of timing, there’s a logical case this could fall after the US election to minimize political fallout. On the other hand, in the Jewish calendar today is the anniversary of the October 7 attack on Israel: if there’s political symbolism in that, it might point to action within the next 24 hours.

At the same time, the US is now saying it also believes North Korea may send troops to fight in Ukraine, which has seen South Korea threaten to send arms to Kyiv. While this is unconfirmed, it underlines how the wars in Europe and the Middle East risk conflating, as would any geopolitical tensions in East Asia. Like financial crises, what starts in one locale rarely stays there if other parties have interests, and in Ukraine, the Middle East, and East Asia everyone has a stake of sorts. This time, of course, central banks are not going to be able to do much about it – except listen to what politicians tell them they have to do to help.

We’ve flagged these fat tail risks – and that’s still all they are for now- repeatedly for years in various thought pieces and dailies. Of course, nobody actually reads reports, do they?

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

More than 1,600 people have been removed from voter rolls in Virginia since August under the state’s program targeting noncitizens, which the Department of Justice (DOJ) and advocacy groups, who are suing the state, contend is illegal.

The scope of the removals was revealed after a federal magistrate, on Oct. 21, ordered the state to disclose the names and addresses of those removed to plaintiff groups, including the DOJ and the League of Women Voters.

Gov. Glen Youngkin (R-Va.) announced the program in August as part of an executive order that codifies election security measures that include creating a “best-in-the-nation voter list maintenance” program. He said that all legal votes should be counted without being “watered down by illegal votes or inaccurate machines.”

This prompted the Department of Justice (DOJ) to file a lawsuit earlier this month, alleging the program violates a 90-day “quiet period” ahead of the November election as required by the National Voter Registration Act.

“States must complete any program that systematically removes the names of ineligible voters from the official list of eligible voters no later than 90 days before a Voter Registration List Maintenance primary election or general election for federal office,” according to the DOJ’s website.

The quiet period exists to prevent the accidental disenfranchisement of legitimate voters in the election season by not providing an opportunity to fix errors before the election.

The DOJ has requested an injunction to block the program and restore the registrations of those removed from the rolls. A hearing is scheduled for Thursday in Alexandria.

The state has objected to an injunction in court filings, saying it would be an unnecessary intrusion into Virginia election procedures.

Youngkin has defended the Aug. 7 executive order, saying that it is based on the precedent of a 2006 state law. That state law directs the Department of Motor Vehicles to update the state Board of Elections monthly with a list of people who failed to prove their citizenship status. The list of noncitizens is forwarded to local registrars. The executive order called for noncitizens to be removed daily using that information.

The governor said that the process is “individualized” and not systematic, in a media interview.

“It starts with a basic premise that when someone walks into one of our DMV’s and self-identifies as a noncitizen, and then they end up on the voter rolls, either purposely or by accident, that we go through a process individualized, not systematic, an individualized process based on that person’s self-identification as a noncitizen, to give them 14 days to affirm they are a citizen and if they don’t, they come off the voter rolls,” Youngkin told Fox News.

Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares supported this argument in a court filing opposing the plaintiff’s request for the court to order the state and county election officials to “place back on the voter rolls people who were recently removed after identifying themselves as noncitizens in information they provided to the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles.”

The filing contends that the nature of a person self-reporting as a noncitizen at the DMV is done on an individual basis and therefore does not qualify as systematic.

Yelp has been forced to turn off reviews for the McDonald’s restaurant that President Trump made an appearance at over the weekend, after being flooded with “numerous negative reviews”.

Trump stopped at the McDonald’s on E. Street Rd. in Feasterville-Trevose, which closed for a few hours Sunday so Trump could mirror – and openly mock – Vice President Kamala Harris’ claim of working at McDonald’s in the 1980s. 

The visit sparked backlash, prompting Yelp to temporarily freeze the restaurant’s review page, according to Patch.

“This business is being monitored by Yelp’s Support team for content related to media reports,” Yelp’s page said. 

Patch reports that over 145 reviews were posted before Yelp paused comments with an “unusual activity alert” Tuesday, NBC10 reported. Some comments were vulgar or joking, while others criticized the franchise owner for hosting Trump.

Yelp wrote on the restaurant’s page: “This business recently received increased public attention, which often means people come to this page to post their views on the news.”

It continued: “While we don’t take a stand one way or the other when it comes to this incident, we’ve temporarily disabled the posting of content to this page as we work to investigate whether the content you see here reflects actual consumer experiences rather than the recent events.”

“Please note that we apply this same policy regardless of the business and regardless of the topic at issue. Read more on Yelp Support. If you’re here to leave a review based on a first-hand experience with the business, please check back at a later date.”

Thank you, come again!

By Megan Brenan of Gallup

With less than two weeks to go in the presidential campaign and voting already underway in many states, 76% of U.S. adults favor the concept of early voting. Two other election law policies are supported by even more Americans — requiring photo identification to vote (84%) and providing proof of citizenship when registering to vote for the first time (83%).

Smaller majorities of Americans — 60% each — favor automatic voter registration, whereby citizens are registered when they do business with state agencies such as the Department of Motor Vehicles, and sending absentee ballot applications to all eligible voters. In contrast, majorities of Americans oppose removing people from voter registration lists if they haven’t voted in any elections in five years (64%) and limiting the number of drop boxes or locations for returning absentee ballots (58%).

Six of the seven election law policies measured in Gallup’s Oct. 1-12 poll were previously included in a July 2022 poll, and the public’s attitudes about all of them are similar now. The measure on views of requiring proof of citizenship for first-time registrants is new this year.

Forty-seven states and the District of Columbia offer early voting, and 36 states request identification of some kind to vote. All states offer voter registration at motor vehicle offices and other state agencies by federal mandate, while about half have implemented automatic registration, under which an interaction with a state government agency results in voter registration unless the person opts out. While states are required by federal law to maintain accurate voter rolls, which includes purging deceased and ineligible voters, implementation is left to the states, as are decisions about drop boxes for voting.

Requiring verification of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections has proven to be a contentious issue. While a handful of states have laws requiring proof of citizenship, they have faced legal challenges. The Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill in July — mostly on partisan lines — that would mandate proof of citizenship, but the U.S. Senate has not voted on it.

Democrats More Likely to Favor Laws Expanding Voting

Partisans’ attitudes about all seven of the election law policies tested diverge significantly, with Democrats more supportive than Republicans of policies that make voting easier and more accessible. Democrats broadly support early voting, sending absentee ballot applications to all voters and automatic voter registration, while far fewer Republicans favor each. Of these three policies, only early voting garners majority-level backing from Republicans — but at 57%, Republicans’ support is 38 percentage points lower than Democrats’.

Republicans are more supportive of policies that would help ensure ineligible people don’t vote. Republicans nearly unanimously back requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and photo identification when voting, but Democrats’ support for each policy is about 30 points lower (though still at the majority level). Smaller majorities of Republicans favor limiting drop boxes (61%) and purging voter rolls after five years of non-voting (51%). No more than one in five Democrats support either of these measures.   

Independents’ views of each policy are on par with the national averages.

Partisans’ views of most of the election law policies are generally stable; however, Democrats’ and Republicans’ opinions have each shifted significantly on one of them. Democrats are now 14 points more likely than they were in 2022 to support requiring photo identification to vote, and Republicans’ current 57% support for early voting — while not significantly different from 2022 — is down from 74% in a 2016 survey.

Broader Voter Access Higher Among People of Color

The ability of racial/ethnic minority groups to vote is a central concern of critics of restrictive election laws. People of color (those who identify as Black, Hispanic, Asian, Alaska Native, American Indian, or Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander) are more likely than White adults to support certain policies that aim to increase access to voting, including sending absentee ballot applications to all eligible voters and enacting automatic voter registration.

Meanwhile, White adults are more likely than people of color to support limiting drop boxes, removing people from voter registration lists and requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. The two broad racial/ethnic groups hold similar views on early voting and requiring photo identification when voting.

Bottom Line

Majorities of Americans favor a range of election law policies that expand voters’ access to the ballot box, including early voting, automatic voter registration and sending absentee ballot applications to all eligible voters. They also broadly support measures to limit fraud and ensure election integrity, including requiring photo identification to vote and providing proof of citizenship when first registering to vote. The public is much less supportive of two policies that would make it harder to vote, including limiting the number of drop boxes for absentee ballots and purging non-voters from voter registration lists.