Month: October 2024

Authored by Pete McGinnis via RealClearPolicy,

Two years on from COVID, the agency noticed sparse HQ attendance. 

Someday, it may end up being one of those hoary old philosophical saws: “If the lease on a government agency’s headquarters expires, but nobody actually works there, do the taxpayers’ sighs of relief make a sound?” 

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) may have the honor of being the first federal agency to find out. Heavily redacted communications obtained by the Functional Government Initiative (FGI) show that the lease on NASA’s headquarters expires in 2028. An email from an official at the General Services Administration, which manages offices and properties for the federal government, said, “The agency is starting the process of evaluating options including leasing, buying a different building, or construction of a new headquarters building, all within the Washington area and close to public transportation.” There was one big problem: knowing how many workers a new HQ will have to house, because nobody at the agency seems to know how many workers show up at the office now.  

NASA email chains reflect the confusion. One staffer involved in the discussion asked, “Are enterprise organizations on remote work agreements counted in their analysis of under 50% work being performed on-site?” Another had to explain that “100% telework … that is not a thing!” Apparently “Telework Coordinators” are doing a review of each pay period to determine who coded to 100% telework, the reason why, and conducting education and counseling when needed. The last alternative is the employee is not reporting onsite on a regular basis without approval and in contradiction to the regulation.  

(Ironically, we know of two NASA employees who would dearly love to work from home but can’t. Rest assured, NASA’s doing everything that can be done while in PJs and bunny slippers to get its astronauts home. In the meantime, it’s good to know the SpaceX offices are rocking.) 

Of course, it’s not only NASA. In spring 2023, the House Subcommittee on Government Operations and the Federal Workforce asked 25 agencies to report on the status of their telework arrangements. On November 29, 2023, Subcommittee Chairman Pete Sessions told a hearing, “I want to be clear, of the 25 agencies we wrote last spring, many responses were not, in fact, responsive. Eleven of the 25 did not include any figures at all regarding how many of their employees were currently teleworking—either in the Washington, D.C. area or agency-wide.” On the other side of the Capitol, Senator Joni Ernst (Iowa) has been aggressive in her push for transparency in telework and waste from mostly empty federal buildings.  

Federal workers don’t much seem to miss the watercooler banter of yesteryear. They haven’t exactly been sprinting back to their offices in the two-plus years since the COVID-19 pandemic ended, and getting them back in hasn’t been a priority for the Biden-Harris administration. Despite demands from Congress and an order from President Biden, the trickle of returning workers hasn’t become a flood. 

At NASA, with its “analysis of under 50% work being performed on-site,” it apparently took until February of 2024 to finally notice the tumbleweeds rolling through HQ and announce to staff it would significantly condense its space: “With daily occupancy in the building so low, people are spread out, which is a waste of space, can be tough on employees and is not the best use of taxpayer dollars.”  

It’s nice that somebody’s thinking of the taxpayers. But while HQ was being rehabbed, NASA was going to 100% telework until “perhaps May.” And if the agency does move to a new building, the goal seems to be to have people in the office 90% of the time. So that “close to public transportation” feature will be handy. Some day. 

To recap: the agency is considering a shiny new HQ building but can’t confidently say how many workers it will need to house, and managers don’t seem to know where everyone is. And their only answer is more telework. Meanwhile, the agency is conspicuously failing in the “Aeronautics and Space” mission it was created for and being bailed out by private enterprise. This is classic government dysfunction. 

But it’s worse. It’s more proof – as though more were needed – that in the federal bureaucracy there’s little accountability and even less concern about what the people who pay the bills think about it. 

Pete McGinnis is director of communications at the Functional Government Initiative.

Stocks dropped for the third day in a row today (longest streak since early Sept) with the S&P’s worst loss in seven weeks, as with a big h/t to Goldman, it seems equity market bulls finally noticed the recent explosion in rates.

Treasury yields rose across the curve again today (with the long-end outperforming – 2Y +5bps, 30Y +2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, the recent 2-sigma move in rates (as we have seen) implies serious drawdowns for stocks…

…and the surge in rates (10Y +55bps in the last three weeks) suddenly hit stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

…and ‘Trumpflation’ has prompted a market-wide rethink of rate-cut expectations (lower/hawkish), especially for next year…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that all weighed on stocks bigly today. There was a small comeback after The Beige Book signaled some dovishness, but Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser (down over 2% at one point)…

A big down-day for mega-cap tech today…

Source: Bloomberg

All seven of the Mag7 stocks were down today – that is the first time that’s happened since Sept 6th…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks were monkeyhammered lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Even the so-called ‘Trump Trade’ saw selling pressure today (though the “Democratic Victory’ basket was hit even harder, so don’t get all excited Kamala)…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s trading desk noted that overall activity levels are up +5% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up +5% vs the 10dma, with their floor basically paired Buy vs. Sell with HFs net to buy and LOs net for sale

• HFs are +7% better to buy with Demand in Macro Products, Industrials & Tech offsetting supply in Fins, Utes & Comms Svcs

• LOs are -2% better for sale.  Tech supply from them outweighs supply in Staples and Cons Svcs by 3:1.  Demand is led by Cons Disc, Mats & HCare.

Meanwhile, the dollar refuses to stop, rallying up to its strongest since early July against its fiat peers…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields are rising as fast as the dollar – also up to three month highs (all above 4.00%)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar strength finally smacked gold lower today… but not before the precious metal hit a new intraday record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver underperformed gold on the day after a decent run against the barbarous relic…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal also, with Bitcoin fading back towards $65,000….

Source: Bloomberg

After two strong days, oil prices slipped lower on an inventory build, higher crude production, and no extreme headlines out of the MidEast (yet)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, prediction markets continue to trend in Trump’s direction…

Source: Bloomberg

…and even the polls are starting to move in his favor (because there’s only so much ‘cheat’ margin to play with).

Gucci owner Kering SA’s problems in mainland China are worsening by the month. After issuing a profit warning earlier this year, the company now expects its annual profits to hit their lowest level since 2016, driven by weak demand from the world’s second-largest economy. Shares have plunged by over 40% this year, marking the steepest annual decline since the GFC in 2008.

Kering booked revenue of 3.79 billion euros ($4.09 billion) in the third quarter, down 15% year-over-year and missed the average estimate tracked by Bloomberg of 3.96 billion euros. On a comparable basis, revenue slid by 16%, much worse than the -10.9% estimate. 

Here’s a snapshot of third-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Comparable revenue -16%, estimate -10.9%

• Gucci revenue on a comparable basis -25%, estimate -20.7%

• Yves Saint Laurent revenue on a comparable basis -12%, estimate -9.94%

• Bottega Veneta revenue on a comparable basis +5%, estimate +4.1%

• Other Houses revenue on a comparable basis -14%, estimate -3.74%

• Eyewear & corporate revenue on a comparable basis +7%, estimate +6.13%

Revenue EU3.79 billion, -15% y/y, estimate EU3.96 billion

• Gucci revenue EU1.64 billion, -26% y/y, estimate EU1.75 billion

• Yves Saint Laurent revenue EU670 million, -13% y/y, estimate EU688.1 million

• Bottega Veneta revenue EU397 million, +4.2% y/y, estimate EU391.1 million

• Other Houses revenue EU686 million, -15% y/y, estimate EU774.5 million 

• Eyewear & corporate revenue EU440 million, +32% y/y, estimate EU395.4 million

Kering blamed “major uncertainties” weighing on consumers in its major retail markets worldwide for a dismal third-quarter report and expects recurring operating income for the year to fall to around 2.5 billion euros, or the lowest level since 2016. 

“The results show how tricky it has become for Kering to reset its flagship brand amid a demand slowdown for high-end goods, particularly in China,” Bloomberg noted. 

One week ago, the world’s largest luxury goods company, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, commonly known as LVMH, unexpectedly reported lower sales in the third quarter, primarily due to the pullback in Chinese luxury demand. 

Back to Kering, where shares in Paris are down 42% on the year. This would be the worst annual decline since the 2008 GFC if these losses hold. 

Besdies luxury, the automotive industry across the West is being crushed by the China slowdown. Even though Beijing has unleashed the monetary stimuli bazooka, the slowdown appears not to be ending anytime soon.

Back in September, the otherwise sleepy and mostly boring report that is the Fed’s Beige Book report (which nobody otherwise reads due to its sheer size) got a sudden boost of notoriety and popularity when none other than Jerome Powell explained after the Fed’s 50bps rate cut, that he had been closely following the Beige Book which had emerged as a driving force behind the Fed’s unexpected “jumbo” 50bps rate cut. And unlike others, we actually do read the Beige Book, which is why two weeks before the FOMC rate cut we titled our analysis of the latest report as follows: “Ugly Beige Book Reveals Economic Activity “Flat Or Declining”, Consumer Spending Slowing In Most Districts.” So one can see why Powell panicked.

Fast forward to today when moments ago the Fed published its latest, October, Beige Book which indicated a continuation of the “ugly” sluggish conditions observed in September, and which on its own, will likely be sufficient to enable further rate cuts in coming months.

According to the Fed’s latest report, economic activity on balance was “little changed in nearly all Districts since early September, though two Districts reported modest growth.” Worse, “most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity.” Additionally, reports on consumer spending were mixed, “with some Districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives” indicating the Fed will likely have to ease further to boost the low-end income consumer.

It wasn’t all bad, as activity in the banking sector was “generally steady to up slightly, and loan demand was mixed, with some Districts noting an improvement in the outlook due to the decline in interest rates.”  Also, housing market activity has generally held up: inventory continued to expand in much of the nation, “and home values largely held steady or rose slightly. Still, uncertainty about the path of mortgage rates kept some buyers on the sidelines, and the lack of affordable housing remained a persistent problem in many communities.” At the same time, commercial real estate markets were generally flat, “although data center and infrastructure projects boosted activity in a few Districts.”

Elsewhere, agricultural activity also called for easier conditions, as it was “flat to down modestly, with some crop prices remaining unprofitably low. Energy activity was also unchanged or down modestly, and lower energy prices reportedly compressed producers’ margins.” Despite elevated uncertainty, the Fed founds that its contacts were somewhat more optimistic about the longer-term outlook, surely the result of the recent easing cycle.

Turning to one-time items, the Fed wrote that “the short-lived dockworkers strike caused only minor temporary disruptions. Hurricane damage impacted crops and prompted pauses in business activity and tourism in the Southeast.”

Some more details from the Beige Book, starting with Labor Markets:

• Employment increased slightly during this reporting period, with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth and the remaining Districts reporting little or no change.
• Many Districts reported low worker turnover, and layoffs reportedly remained limited.
• Demand for workers eased somewhat, with hiring focused primarily on replacement rather than growth.
• Worker availability improved, as many contacts reported it had become easier to find the workers they need. However,  contacts noted that it remained difficult to find workers with certain skills or in some industries, such as technology, manufacturing, and construction.
• Wages generally continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace. With the improvement in worker availability, contacts in multiple Districts pointed to a slowdown in the pace of wage increases. Still, larger than usual pay increases were reported for some workers, such as those in the skilled trades or in remote areas.

Turning to prices:

• Inflation continued to moderate with selling prices reportedly increasing at a slight or modest pace in most Districts.
• Still, the prices of some food products, such as eggs and dairy, were reported to have increased more sharply.
• Home prices edged up in many Districts, while rents were reported to be steady or down slightly.
• Many Districts noted increasing price sensitivity among consumers.
• Input prices generally rose moderately.
• Contacts across several industries noted more acute pressures from rising insurance and healthcare costs (which the Fed has no control over).
• Multiple Districts reported that input prices generally rose faster than selling prices, compressing firms’ profit margins.

Here are the main highlights by Fed District

• Boston: Economic activity was flat, as was employment, and prices increased slightly. International travel was a bright spot, and the summer tourism season on Cape Cod was described as strong. More broadly, consumers remained highly price conscious, and certain manufacturers had persistently weak sales. Home sales and home prices softened noticeably over the summer. Contacts were cautiously optimistic about the outlook for late 2024 and 2025.
• New York: On balance, regional economic activity was little changed. Employment increased slightly and wages continued to increase moderately. Housing markets remained solid, with home prices continuing to edge up. Selling price increases remained modest. Capital spending plans were strong, with some investments already underway.
• Philadelphia: Business activity continued to decline slightly in the current Beige Book period. Consumer spending fell modestly, and nonmanufacturing activity fell slightly. Employment appeared to rise slightly, after falling slightly last period. Wage growth continued at a modest pace, as did reported rises in input costs and prices. Expectations for future growth rose—becoming more widespread for both manufacturers and nonmanufacturers.
• Cleveland: Overall, Fourth District business activity was stable. Residential construction and real estate activity increased and demand for nonfinancial services remained strong. By contrast, consumer spending and demand for manufactured goods remained soft. Employment levels were stable. On balance, wages increased modestly, nonlabor costs grew moderately, and selling prices increased slightly.
• Richmond: The regional economy grew modestly this cycle. Consumer spending picked up, loan demand increased, manufacturing activity expanded, port activity rose, and employment grew slightly. Ports in the District were minimally impacted by the short-lived worker strike; however, parts of our District were heavily affected by Hurricane Helene; the full impacts of the loss of life and property were still being assessed.
• Atlanta: The economy of the Sixth District declined slightly. Employment was steady and wages grew slowly. Prices were little changed, and pricing power softened. Consumer spending slowed, and tourism decelerated. Demand for housing was flat. Transportation activity increased slightly. Loans grew modestly. Manufacturing declined and energy activity slowed. Agriculture conditions weakened.
• Chicago: Economic activity increased slightly. Consumer spending rose modestly; employment was up slightly; construction and real estate activity was flat; nonbusiness contacts saw little change in activity; and business spending and manufacturing activity edged down. Prices were up modestly, wages rose moderately, and financial conditions loosened slightly. Prospects for 2024 farm income were unchanged.
• St. Louis: Economic activity across the Eighth District has remained unchanged since our previous report, despite continuing to show some signs of slowing demand. Across the District, contacts expressed their intention to maintain employment levels in the upcoming months. Prices continued to increase modestly with some input costs remaining unchanged or decreasing. The outlook among contacts remains slightly pessimistic but has modestly improved for many.
• Minneapolis: Economic activity declined slightly since the last report. Employment grew but labor demand continued to soften. Prices increased slightly overall, with greater pressure on input prices, while wages increased moderately. Consumer spending was flat, with some contacts expressing concern for consumer financial health. Manufacturing decreased moderately. Commercial and residential construction declined slightly. Agricultural conditions were stable at low levels.
• Kansas City: District economic activity was steady as mild growth in consumer spending offset slower manufacturing and professional service activity. Employment levels remained flat on net, though more contacts reported reducing their staffing levels recently. Business contacts reported more delays in receiving payments, raising financial strains but not affecting their hiring plans.
• Dallas: Economic activity rose modestly over the reporting period, buoyed by a pickup in growth in nonfinancial services. Housing demand held steady, while retail sales, loan demand, and manufacturing output weakened. Employment increased, and wage growth was moderate. Outlooks were mixed, with domestic policy and economic uncertainty cited as key concerns.
• San Francisco: Economic activity was steady. Labor availability improved further, and wages grew slightly. Overall prices were largely stable. Retail sales and activity in manufacturing and consumer services softened. Demand for business services improved, while conditions in real estate, financial services, agriculture, and resource-related industries were largely unchanged.

A quick semantic analysis finds that there were virtually no material changes across the two most important metrics tracked by the Fed: inflation and an economic slowdown, with terms discussing the former barely moving (from 11 to 12), while the latter was unchanged at 55.

Bottom line: if the September Beige Book is what ultimately tipped the scales for the Fed to cut 50bps, then the October Beige Book is really even more of the same (with the added kicker of a fullblown manufacturing recession), assuring more rate cuts in coming months.

On the Triggernometry podcast, billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman reflected on a pivotal moment that reshaped his perception of media trustworthiness, explaining how he and many others were misled by the media concocting the “Very Fine People” hoax against then-President Donald Trump.

KONSTANTIN KISIN: You thought very carefully about who to support in this election, and you have spoken a number of times about some of the things that you believed about Donald Trump, for example, that you were misled about by the mainstream media. That’s the kind of environment you’re really talking about. Where somebody runs and they immediately become the sort of demon monkey, and they’re completely misrepresented. It doesn’t mean they don’t have flaws, but they’re misrepresented about the things that they say. Is there a way to change that, first and foremost?

BILL ACKMAN: You need neutral spaces in media, by the way—neutral spaces where you can counteract the—I hate to use the word misinformation because that itself has problems. Look, I don’t want to sit here and just be an advertisement for X, but what’s interesting is that when someone writes a profile of me in some media form, I can, within an hour of that article coming out, very specifically fact-check or address the issue, as could obviously any candidate for office. Prior to X being this sort of neutral platform, you had to send the Times a beg them for a correction, and in a few weeks, on quote-unquote page 4 or 3, in a place no one would read, the correction would appear. I think the more the public has lost confidence in conventional media, the more they’re going to look to empirical voices in podcasting and citizen journalism on X. I do think that’s a powerful counterpoint.

One of the most powerful moments for many people, actually one of them for me, is I truly believed that Trump had said the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists were among the very fine people protesting. It takes about two minutes to actually watch what he said to realize he said precisely the opposite—that he condemned them. He said, “I’m not talking about the neo-Nazis and the white nationalists” when he was talking about very fine people. That’s the moment when you realize, “Oh my God, I really have been misled by the media.” You look at the 60 Minutes excerpting that was done with Kamala, and you realize how much you can be manipulated, particularly by taped and excerpted media. So, if I’m trying to get to the truth, I want to hear the voice of the candidate—untaped, unscripted, without the teleprompter.

Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A groundbreaking study led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) revealed a potentially massive lithium reserve beneath southwestern Arkansas, which researchers say far exceeds the current worldwide demand.

According to the study published in Science Advances, researchers estimate between 5 and 19 million tons of lithium reserves are present in the region. If commercially recoverable, the supply could potentially meet the projected 2030 world demand for lithium in car batteries nine times over, according to a press release Monday by the U.S. agency.

The research, which combined efforts between the USGS and the Arkansas Department of Energy and Environment’s Office of the State Geologist, employed a methodology using water testing and machine learning to estimate how much lithium is present in brines within what’s known as the Smackover Formation.

USGS director David Applegate said the discovery has several meaningful implications.

“Lithium is a critical mineral for the energy transition, and the potential for increased U.S. production to replace imports has implications for employment, manufacturing, and supply-chain resilience. This study illustrates the value of science in addressing economically important issues,” he said.

The Smackover Formation, a remnant of an ancient sea, extends under parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas. Known for its oil and bromine deposits, it recently gained attention for potential lithium in high-salinity waters associated with deep salt deposits, according to the press release.

Katherine Knierim, the study’s principal researcher and a USGS hydrologist, cautioned that while the estimates are substantial, they cannot predict how much is recoverable.

“We estimate there is enough dissolved lithium present in that region to replace U.S. imports of lithium and more,” she said. “It is important to caution that these estimates are an in-place assessment. We have not estimated what is technically recoverable based on newer methods to extract lithium from brines.”

The discovery comes at a crucial time as global lithium demands are on the rise with the production of electric and hybrid vehicles and less reliance on fossil fuels, according to the agency. USGS said the United States currently relies on imports for more than 25 percent of its lithium needs.

Researchers utilized machine learning—a form of artificial intelligence—to create predictive maps of lithium concentrations throughout the Smackover Formation. Samples from Arkansas were analyzed at the USGS Brine Research Instrumentation and Experimental lab in Reston, Virginia, and compared with historical data from the USGS Produced Waters Database, according to the press release.

“The USGS—and science as well—works best as a partnership, and this important research was possible because of our strong partnership with the Office of the Arkansas State Geologist,” Knierim said.

The USGS has served as the nation’s primary source of impartial scientific information on geologic, energy, and mineral resources since 1879. It also tracks lithium production, demand, and imports in the United States under a role mandated by the Energy Act of 2020.

Marc Andreessen, the billionaire investor who runs the influential Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, warned Impact Theory podcast host Tom Bilyeu that the “AI censorship wars” will likely be the biggest political battle over the next three decades.

TOM BILYEU: What’s your take on censorship? Where are we culturally, and what’s AI’s role going to be in either breaking us free from censorship or using that to really tighten down?

MARC ANDREESSEN: I am classic Gen X. I am 100% pro-free speech. By the way, the First Amendment guarantees that the government, at least in theory, is not supposed to censor us, although that’s been happening a bit lately. But the government also has case law around the First Amendment that defines illegal speech, and there are a bunch of forms of illegal speech, like child porn and incitement to violence—it’s terrorist recruitment, right? So there are carve-outs for that stuff. My philosophy is that U.S. law is actually very good on this, and it isn’t just U.S. law; this has been litigated culturally in the US as well as legally for 250 years, going back to the Bill of Rights. We and our predecessors in the US went through a long process to get to where the First Amendment is. Therefore, I think it represents more than just a law; it’s also a statement of culture and values.

I’ve always been an advocate that the code for internet freedom of speech should basically be the First Amendment with only limited carve-outs for things that are truly dangerous or truly destructive. I don’t want terrorist recruitment any more than anybody else, but should people be able to talk about their politics online without getting censored? 100%—full range of expression, of course. It’s the American way. So I’m 100% on that.

You probably know as much as I do about the last decade, which I’ve seen up close, where things generally went very bad. The internet companies ran into a variety of externally and self-inflicted situations where they ended up being a pervasive censorship machine for a long time. The most dramatic change of that is Twitter before and after Elon bought it. By the way, we’re a proud member of the syndicate that bought it with Elon, and so I’m completely thrilled.

TOM BILYEU: Thank you for your service, by the way. To me, it’s just so much better. I cannot believe that was controversial.

MARC ANDREESSEN: We’re also, by the way, the main outside investor in Substack, which I think has done a spectacular job navigating through this. They’re a small company, so when pressure is brought to bear on a small company, it can really have an impact. But the team there has done a fantastic job navigating to a real freedom of speech position, and as a consequence, Substack now has the full range of views on all kinds of topics in a really good way. So the good news is we have two case studies where this has gone really well. The other ones are more difficult.

Here’s what I would say: I think the internet social media censorship wars were the preamble to the AI censorship wars. I think the AI censorship wars are going to be a thousand times more intense and a thousand times more important. The reason for that is that internet social media is important because it’s what we all say to each other, but AI is going to be, I think, the software layer that controls everything. It’s going to be the software layer that basically tells us everything; it’s going to be the software layer that teaches our kids; it’s going to be the software layer that we talk to every day. And, you know, as I think you know, there’s already AI censorship.

The AI censorship conflict is already underway. The war—the information war around AI—is already underway. By the way, the same people who were pushing so hard for social media censorship have now shifted their focus to AI censorship. A lot of the actual censors themselves, who used to work at companies like Twitter, now work for the AI companies. So there’s been a direct transfer of lessons learned, and now it’s being applied at a larger scale. I think this is going to be a giant fight; I think it’s just starting. I believe it’s possibly the most important political fight in the next 30 years.

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Crypto predictions platform Polymarket is reportedly checking to ensure whales placing big bets on the United States presidential election are based overseas, as US users are banned from the platform.

“Polymarket is in the process of re-checking the details of users of its platform, particularly those making large wagers, to ensure compliance with its rules,” a report from Bloomberg said on Oct. 22, citing a person familiar with the matter.

While Polymarket has systems in place to block US users from its website, concerns have been raised that US residents may be circumventing the blockage via virtual private networks — prompting Polymarket to do more due diligence.

It follows speculation that a handful of large whales are skewing the odds for the November US presidential election in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.

Almost $2.3 billion in bets have been placed in Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market, which currently favors Trump (63.7%) over Vice President Kamala Harris (36.2%).

Live odds of the Polymarket’s US presidential election market. Source: Polymarket

The whereabouts of Polymarket whale “Fredi9999” have attracted considerable attention, as more than $20 million has been placed on Republican outcomes so far.

Trump also leads Harris on competitor prediction platform Kalshi at 60%.

Still, Trump’s lead in the crypto prediction markets isn’t currently reflected in most voter polls, including a Reuters poll with Harris in front at 46% to 43%.

In response to Polymarket media scrutiny, Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour said Polymarket’s results are accurate and not caused by inorganic manipulation.

“The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump, with the median bet for Harris coming in at $85 compared with Trump’s $58.”

Source: Steve Hanke

Billionaire and Polymarket investor Mark Cuban said most of the bets placed on Polymarket’s US election market are coming from overseas – and as a result, are not a true reflection of eligible voter sentiment.

“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything,” Cuban said in an interview with CNBC Squawk Box on Oct. 21.

Polymarket reached a $1.4 million settlement with the United States commodities regulator back in January 2022 for offering more than 900 event-based binary options event markets without obtaining registration.

In a different case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission partially lost a lawsuit it filed against Kalshi in September. The court ruled that the commodities regulator had “exceeded its statutory authority” by ordering the US-based entity to suspend its election markets.

In a day when stocks are dumping, having finally noticed the surge in yields, one would have expected today’s 20Y reopening auction (of 19Y, 10M Cusip UD8) to be solid. It wasn’t.

Stopping at a high yield of 4.590%, this was 55bps higher than last month’s 4.039%, the highest yield since May and also tailed the When Issued 4.574% by 1.6bps, the second consecutive tail in a row (if not as bad as last month’s 2.0bps tail).

The bid to cover was a solid 2.59, above last month’s 2.51 and the highest since July 2.78, if below the six-auction average of 2.64.

The internals were also ok, with Indirects taking down 67.9%, up from 65.1% but below the recent average of 72.8%. And with Directs awarded 17.6%, Dealers were left holding 14.5% of the final allotiment.

Overall, this was a mediocre auction, with respectable if hardly stellar internals, and which did nothing to help the relentless selling observed in recent days across the curve as the market finally starts retrading “Trumpflation” now not just a Trump administration, but a Red sweep appear increasingly likely.

For the first time of the war, the Pentagon has assessed that North Korean troops appear to be in Russia. “We are seeing evidence that there are North Korean troops that have, that have gone to… Russia,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters in Rome on Wednesday. “What exactly they’re doing, left to be seen.”

He also noted that “Our analysts… continue to look at this” – in reference to the intelligence community. “If they’re co-belligerents, if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue,” he said of the North Koreans. “It will have impacts, not only in Europe. It will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.” The Ukrainian government has been loudly alleging that North Korean troops are already fighting Ukrainian forces in the east of the country.

The Pentagon chief strongly suggested that this is a sign of growing Russian weakness and manpower problems.

The Washington Post wrote, “Austin said it was unclear what North Korea would get out of the deployment. But he said it suggested significant weaknesses in the military capability of Russia, which has had to tap allies Iran and North Korea for aid in its war against Ukraine.”

“This is an indication that he may be even in more trouble than most people realize,” Austin emphasized in reference to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This new US ‘confirmation’ marks a reversal of sorts. As recently as the start of this week the Pentagon refused to back Ukrainian and South Korean spy agency claims that some 10,000 North Korean troops are headed into the conflict. 

South Korean intelligence claimed that 1,500 DPRK troops had already been deployed to fight on behalf of Russia. 

“I’ve seen those reports in the media. I can’t confirm those reports at this point in time. This is something that we will certainly continue to investigate,” Austin said Sunday.

President Zelensky has been pushing the idea that the ‘enemies’ of the West have formed an axis to fight in Ukraine and ultimately push back NATO. He’s identified them as Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

He’s touted this curiously alongside desperate pleas for more urgent funding and weaponry from his Western backers. Kiev has especially sought long-range weapons for use inside Russian territory, and is now saying the war has been internationalized against Kiev. 

These reports of North Korean troops in Ukraine are giving fresh impetus to the hawks…

“If you clapped for Orbán two weeks ago, you are now on North Korea’s side.”

My speech on frozen Russian assets.

Ukraine must win. Russia must pay. Orbán must go. pic.twitter.com/BUsDxCt2jc

— Damian Boeselager (@d_boeselager) October 22, 2024

Some video clips of unknown context, origin or location have circulated online in the past days, purporting to show North Korean troops being outfitted by Russia’s military before deploying in Ukraine.

Pundits have described one circulating video as showing a base in Russia’s eastern Primorye region, which shares a small border with North Korea, incredibly far away from front lines in Ukraine.