Month: October 2024

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Goodbye Digital, Hello Physical

Is the election over already?

Sure, Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. But the election is happening in real-time and will mostly be over by the end of this week because of early voting, mail-in ballots, drop boxes and ballot harvesting.

These votes won’t be counted until Election Day, but they are being cast now, so hopefully somebody will be watching this time.

It goes state by state, so different states have different laws, obviously. But in many states, the voting has already begun. In many cases, it was Oct. 11. Other states opened up on Oct. 15.

But the point is a lot of the voting has already happened, and a lot more is going to happen during this week.

So the election will be over before Election Day. We won’t know the results until Nov. 5, but the election’s very largely over in the middle of October. (That’s why the “October surprise” of past election cycles is obsolete.)

Polls Pointing to Trump

This timing is another reason why I believe Donald Trump will win this election. Polling has swung to the Trump camp in the past few weeks. This momentum has come at the right time as early voting began in critical battleground states.

But once voters have cast their votes and a winner is declared next month, the election will not be over. Why? Because the Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves in anticipation of a Trump victory.

But let’s assume for the moment that Trump wins the election and actually takes office in January. What market sectors should do well under a second Trump administration?

Here are some of the sectors that will benefit with a Trump victory in November:

• Oil and natural gas drilling, production and refining

• Mining (gold, silver, copper, lithium)

• Defense (especially in contractors with good research and development programs. We need new technology, not just more of the same weapons)

• Automobile manufacturing focused more on internal-combustion engines rather than electric vehicles.

The Return of the Physical

I would also look at sectors that benefit from lower oil and gas prices including trucking and airlines.

Trump’s agenda will incentivize billions of dollars of investments in U.S. energy and manufacturing jobs. He’ll make domestic oil drilling and refining a top priority which will provide America with energy independence. This will also benefit companies (and provide more jobs) in the energy sector.

He’ll also eliminate the Green New Scam by reducing spending on wasteful projects like Kamala Harris’ EV mandates. This will allow automakers to shine once more by producing more automobiles with traditional internal-combustion engines.

In short, a second Trump term could ignite a boom in the physical world. This stands in stark contrast to most of the past 15 years, which have seen the domination of investments in the digital, online world.

Since most investors’ portfolios are outweighed with popular, mega-cap technology stocks, few are positioned to profit from this trend. You shouldn’t be one of them.

Refiners, Refiners, Refiners! 

Here, my senior analyst, Dan Amoss, lays out the investment case for refiners, which should thrive under a second Trump administration:

One sector you should pay attention to is refiners because U.S. refiners are in a new golden age. Two years ago, you may recall hearing news stories about tight diesel supplies across many areas of the U.S.

The Biden/Harris administration has constantly promised action to “fight” high prices for gasoline and diesel. However, this administration has only made politically expedient, short term-oriented moves like draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The cold, hard reality that green energy advocates need to accept is that the billion-plus fleet of internal-combustion engines around the world will need diesel and gasoline for decades into the future.

Pandering to a political base of radical environmentalists will only result in the loss of political power, whether it’s in the U.S. or Europe.

Until we see more political support to maintain U.S. oil, gas and refining production capacity — and years of catch-up investments are made — we’ll keep bumping up against constraints.

Demand for refined products remains strong despite high prices. Gasoline and diesel prices might seem high, but that’s only because it’s natural to make a mental anchor to super-low prices in 2020 and early 2021.

Why U.S. Refineries Are in a New Golden Age

Hydrogen is a crucial ingredient in the oil refining process. It dilutes the carbon in the end product, which allows for increased production of high-quality fuels. Where do refineries get hydrogen?

They get it from natural gas. Access to lower-cost natural gas is why U.S. refineries will enjoy a huge competitive advantage versus competing refineries in Europe and Asia.

Natural gas prices in Europe have cooled off over the winter as demand has slowed. In recent years, Europe has enjoyed some of the warmest winters in memory. But it won’t always be unseasonably warm.

Another surge in natural gas prices will remind investors that it will be difficult to profitably refine crude in Europe. The continent may see more refinery shutdowns in the years ahead.

If so, it will rely more on imported products from geographies that have been investing in refineries, including the Middle East. Mothballed European refineries act to tighten refined product supply, which boosts profits at U.S. refiners.

Sanctions on Russian refined products have tightened refined product supplies — especially distillates (heating oil and diesel). Of course, Russia gets around sanctions by exporting to third parties. But the net effect is an increase in miles traveled for the global refined-product tanker fleet.

That means there are more refined products on the water and fewer products sitting in onshore tanks. Tighter onshore supplies keep prices high.

Meanwhile, U.S. refining capacity has been in a downtrend since COVID. So even if demand for gasoline and diesel falls in a recession, tighter refining capacity will cushion the downside risk in refining margins.

We like to recommend cyclical stocks when their sectors have been underinvesting. Refining has been underinvesting for several years, so it’s a good time to own refiners. The mid-2000s was a golden age for U.S. refiners. Profits were high and consistent, and refining stocks left the S&P 500 in the dust. Now we’re looking at another golden age.

Gold: The “Everything Hedge”

Returning to the election, Trump is in a good position to win. Still, the uncertainty factor and element of surprise make it too soon to issue a final prediction. And if the Democrats have their way, Trump could be in for a battle to take office even if he wins. So there’s still a lot of uncertainty.

Markets hate uncertainty. That’s why volatility will be high for the next several weeks in several sectors of the market.

It’s a perfect scenario for owning gold. I call gold the “everything hedge.” It hedges you against political uncertainty, stock market collapse, geopolitical risk, social unrest and an attack on the U.S. dollar. So gold serves all those purposes.

That’s why I recommend 10% of your investable assets be allocated to gold. It’s excellent insurance that’ll give you peace of mind in uncertain times.

The Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) now covers forty years worth of data for how Americans households spend money.

That data includes how much the average “consumer unit” surveyed by the U.S. Census Bureau spends on health insurance, which like many other things in the economy, has seen significant cost inflation over the past four decades.

The following chart, via Political Calculations blog, shows how that cost has changed from 1984, the first year for the CEX, through 2023, the latest, whose data was just released last month.

As you’ll see, over the past 40 years, there has been one major factor that has altered the trajectory for how much American households/consumer units pay on average for health insurance coverage.

Back in 1984, the first year for the CEX, American household consumer units paid an average of $370 for health insurance.

That figure grew steadily over the following years and by 2000, the average cost of health insurance for a U.S. household has risen to $980.

From 2000 through 2010, the average cost of health insurance grew faster, reaching $1,826 by 2010.

Had the 2000 through 2010 growth trend continued, we estimate the average amount American households would pay for health insurance in 2023 would be $2,927.

But it didn’t, thanks to the passage of the Affordable Care Act, which was signed into law in 2010.

It was implemented over several years, going into full effect in 2014.

The claimed goal of the law, as suggested by its name, was to make health insurance more affordable for Americans.

In 2023, the average cost of health insurance paid by American households has more than doubled what it was in 2010.

At an average $4,049 per household, this expense is more than 38% higher than the trend that existed in the decade before the Affordable Care Act became law.

The chart also indicates the cost “curve” for health insurance has bent upward since 2021, which has inflated more quickly over the last few years following 2020’s coronavirus pandemic.

Political Calculations blog will be featuring other aspects of how American consumer spending has changed over the past four decades using the latest CEX data in the weeks ahead.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A security researcher and a technology startup CEO are warning that some Gmail users could fall prey to a sophisticated, AI-based scam that could lead to their accounts being taken over.

Garry Tan, chief executive of prominent tech-oriented venture capital firm Ycombinator, wrote on X late last week that there is a “pretty elaborate” phishing scam that uses an AI-generated voice.

The scammers “[claim] to be Google Support (caller ID matches, but is not verified),” he wrote in an Oct. 10 post that he termed a “public service announcement.”

“DO NOT CLICK YES ON THIS DIALOG—You will be phished.

“They claim to be checking that you are alive and that they should disregard a death certificate filed that claims a family member is recovering your account. It’s a pretty elaborate ploy to get you to allow password recovery.”

IT consultant Sam Mitrovic, in a blog post last month, wrote of a similar scam attempt targeting Gmail accounts and also using an AI-generated voice.

“The scams are getting increasingly sophisticated, more convincing and are deployed at ever larger scale,” Mitrovic wrote in the post. “People are busy and this scam sounded and looked legitimate enough that I would give them an A for their effort. Many people are likely to fall for it.”

According to the post, Mitrovic said he received a notification to approve an attempt to recover a Gmail account, which he ultimately rejected. He then received a phone call about 40 minutes later with a caller ID as “Google Sydney” and rejected it as well.

“Exactly a week later,” he said, “more or less exactly the same time, I received another notification to approve my Gmail account recovery again from the United States.

“You guessed it—about 40 minutes later I receive a call which I pick up this time. It’s an American voice, very polite and professional. The number is Australian. He introduces himself and says that there is suspicious activity on my account.”

The person on the other line then asked if Mitrovic was traveling, to which he replied he was not, according to his account. The person then asked if Mitrovic was in Germany, to which he also said no.

Mitrovic said he found the caller’s number was an official one that was listed under Google Australia’s IT support page, adding that he asked for a confirmation email, and the sender address also appeared to be an official account used by Google’s team.

“In the background, I can hear someone typing on the keyboard and throughout the call there is some background noise reminiscent of a call centre. He tells me that he has sent the email. After a few moments, the email arrives and at a first glance the email looks legit—the sender is from a Google domain,” he wrote.

But the researcher noted that “spoofing an email address is easy and I notice that the To field contains an email address cleverly named GoogleMail at InternalCaseTracking dot com (non-Google domain).”

“The caller said, Hello, I ignored it then about 10 seconds later, then said Hello again,” he said, adding that at that moment, he realized the voice was AI-generated, “as the pronunciation and spacing were too perfect.”

Mitrovic wrote that he hung up and called the number back. He then received a message that said, “This is Google Maps, we are currently unable to take your call.”

The researcher said he wasn’t the only one who appeared to have been almost scammed, finding others who wrote that they were targeted by a similar scheme.

Public service announcement: You should be aware of a pretty elaborate phishing scam using AI voice that claims to be Google Support (caller ID matches, but is not verified)

DO NOT CLICK YES ON THIS DIALOG— You will be phished

They claim to be checking that you are alive and… pic.twitter.com/60zeuS2lL8

— Garry Tan (@garrytan) October 10, 2024

“There are many tools to fight the scammers, however, at an individual level the best tool is still vigilance, doing the basic checks as above or seeking assistance from someone you trust,” Mitrovic wrote.

According to the blog post, the researcher said there were several hints to suggest it may have been an attempt to take over his Google or Gmail account.

Mitrovic noted that telltale signs of a scam include that one, he received account recovery messages that he did not initiate; two, it was a phone call, as Google does not call users unless they have a Google Business Profile; and three, the email he received had an address “not connected to a Google domain.” Additionally, the email header showed “how the email was spoofed,” and a “reverse number search showed others who received the same scam call,” he said.

“Despite many red flags upon closer inspection, this call seemed legitimate enough to trick many people,” he wrote. “My guess is that their conversion rate from calls answered would be relatively high.”

The Epoch Times contacted Google for comment about Mitrovic’s and Tan’s warnings but received no response by press time.

At this point it has become clear that Zelensky is trying to scare and blackmail the West into ramping up support to Ukraine, which includes a push allow NATO membership, and with loose talk of seeking to acquire nuclear weapons to boot.

Part of the fearmongering has also featured Zelensky’s insistence that a global coalition of enemies is now fighting Kiev. “The coalition of criminals along with Putin already includes North Korea,” Zelensky told his parliament in a speech this week. “Everyone sees the Iranian regime’s assistance to Putin, and also China’s cooperation with Russia.”

The next day, Thursday, Zelensky was in Brussels where he informed EU officials that North Korea is amassing a large amount of troops in Russia, readying them to fight in Ukraine.

“We know that there are 10,000 soldiers of North Korea, that they are preparing to send, fight against us,” he said in a briefing. This includes “land forces, other tactical personnel” and framed it as “the first step to a world war.”

“Because of the gap in mobilization, because of lots of Russian losses, and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is afraid of mobilisation very much . . . that is why he is trying to involve other participants in this war,” he added.

But as Financial Times has pointed out, Western intelligence finds these claims dubious:

Military analysts and Nato officials have cast doubt on the accuracy of reports that North Korean troops are involved in combat in eastern Ukraine. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte said on Wednesday that the defence alliance had no “definitive” information on this matter.

The White House said on Tuesday it could not independently confirm the reports of North Korean troops fighting on behalf of Russia but “those reports are concerning to us”, according to National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.

On Friday, South Korean intelligence (the NIS) sought to vouch for Zelensky’s claims, saying it believes up to 12,000 North Korean troops are mustering in Russia, and that at least 1,500 have already arrived.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has highlighted the report Friday, issuing a call for international community must respond with “all available means”.

If indeed there were a surge of North Korean troops of this size into Eastern Europe, there would likely be photographic evidence, or at least leaked images of some kind. Pro-Kiev accounts have offered the following unverified images, sources and date unclear…

This is reportedly how North Korean soldiers are outfitted in Russian gear.

According to reports, this is the Sergievsky training ground in Russia’s Far East.

Soldiers from North Korea are fighting in Europe against a European country.
How will Europe react? https://t.co/IgoPAqqCOo pic.twitter.com/iMfAGZorEM

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 18, 2024

If true this would mark a major escalation of N.Korea’s involvement. “More North Korean troops could be deployed in the war,” Seoul had previously warned this much. But the West wouldn’t be able to do much, having already put fairly maximum sanctions on both Russia and North Korea. It could be another dangerous sign that the Ukraine war is getting more and more internationalized.

Via American Greatness,

When Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY) contacted officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in December of 2020, he wanted to know if taking the newly released Covid vaccine would benefit him, since he’d already contracted the illness.

After reading the scientific studies himself, and seeing no benefit, Massie contacted the CDC to learn why they were putting out incorrect information which claimed that their studies showed that the Covid vaccine does provide a benefit to those who have previously had Covid.

Massie says those secretly recorded conversations with CDC officials in December of 2020 show that they were lying about their Pfizer Covid vaccine trial data.

In December of 2020, I caught CDC lying about Pfizer COVID vaccine trial data. I recorded phone conversations with CDC where they admitted I was right. My late wife Rhonda suggested I give the tapes to @SharylAttkisson. I did and Sharyl exposed CDC. Watch:pic.twitter.com/apWAVJqcdv

— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) October 16, 2024

In those phone calls, Massie says CDC officials were caught deliberately downplaying the effectiveness of natural immunity while pushing for Covid-19 vaccinations for everyone, regardless of prior infection.

According to Attkisson, in the recordings, CDC officials thanked Massie for finding the mistake in their studies and admitted that the claims of vaccine efficacy for the previously infected wasn’t true, yet they pushed back on correcting the falsehood, saying it would confuse the public.

Attkisson says, the very next day, those same officials who had admitted their mistake regarding the vaccine’s effectiveness to Massie nevertheless conducted a webinar for doctors that repeated the same misinformation.

In the recording, Massie expresses concern that continuing to encourage previously infected people with natural immunity to get the vaccine, which was in short supply, could prevent others who were at greater risk from Covid from having access to the vaccine.

In a call with CDC’s Washington D.C. Director Anstis Brand, Massie says, “If there’s a “they” who is refusing to fix something that is factually and provably wrong, I want to know who “they” is. Because this is going to result and is already resulting in misallocation of the vaccine.”

Brand tells him that she’ll have to look into it and get back to him.

In another call with the CDC’s Dr. Sara Oliver, Massie points out the error in which the study erroneously claims that the vaccine is efficacious for those with prior infection and he asks to get it corrected.

Dr. Oliver says admits that Massie is correct but says that the CDC still is recommending that previously infected individuals get the vaccine, saying “We wouldn’t want to put out that if you’ve had Covid before, you shouldn’t get the vaccine.”

Massie’s recorded calls with CDC officials clearly show the agency was pushing vaccination even for those who likely didn’t need it due to natural immunity.

These revelations appear to vindicate those who expressed worries that U.S health officials were being driven by an agenda to promote vaccines rather than by honest science.

After the massive deposit inflows the prior week, US banks saw total deposits plunge in the week-ending 10/09 (latest data released today), down a stunning $69BN (on a seasonally-adjusted basis), erasing the prior two weeks deposit inflows…

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, banks also deposit outflows ($59.5BN)…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, for the first time in four weeks, money market funds saw (admittedly small) outflows this week (-$6.5BN), taking them just off record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

That is only the second weekly outflow from MM funds in the last three months… and the outflow was all institutional (with retail funds continuing to see inflows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Excluding foreign deposits, the US domestic bank deposit outflows were considerably worse, down $85BN (NSA) and $88BN (SA)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest weekly SA domestic deposit outflow since the SVB crisis in March 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, its tax-filing extension deadline time, which we’re sure explains some of this. However, this is the largest mid-October deposit outflow since at least the GFC.

Outflows from Large Banks (-$81BN SA and -$85BN NSA) dominated small inflow for Small Banks (+$3.4BN SA and +$0.03BN NSA).

The Fed’s bank bailout facility continued to shrink last week (down $2BN), really getting back to immediate SVB crisis loan levels (having erased all the arbitrage-driven surge in the blue box)…

Source: Bloomberg

As might be expected with the large deposit drawdown, loan volumes shrank dramatically at Large Banks (and rose modestly at Small Banks)

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, the gap between bank reserves at The Fed and US equity mareket cap continues to widen…

…will that relationship ever recouple?

So, all eyes next week on deposit flows to see if they normalize after tax-day.

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“The migrant crisis has been the first issue to truly evocatively make obvious that something extremely dark and sinister is happening to the country.”

– Simplicius on Substack

The Great Fright among the elite of the party ruling our country steals across the land chillingly now from sea to shining sea – as if all those ghouls, werewolves, zombies, and tormented wraiths assembled in the front yard Halloween displays send up one mighty wail of despair: Donald Trump will seek revenge against his enemies if you elect him! they scream into the pale moonlight.

Well, he ought to, of course, and remember: they are your enemies, too – the FBI thugs battering down your doors at five in the morning, the malicious US attorneys manufacturing phony felonies, the Soros-owned DAs and party-owned judges, and the thousands of spooks from agencies both known and unheard-of surveilling your every move, every purchase, every journey, every thought. Consider that it is not whether Mr. Trump might seek revenge but whether justice, and the mental health of the nation, require an accounting for the real crimes of actual persons against the people of America lo these years of the Woke Jacobin Inquisition.

Finally, as the days dwindle down to November 5, you understand exactly what motivates the three layers of evil heaping America with malice and punishment.

• Layer one: the officers of the political establishment, a.k.a., “the blob” or Deep State, both current and emeritus. You know now that they are motived to stay out of courts-of-law (and, ultimately, prison). Figures such as John Brennan, Merrick Garland, Lisa Monaco, Chris Wray, Anthony Fauci, Alejandro Mayorkas, Barack Obama, and many more, exude culpability for doing real harm to US citizens. They do not want to do time. As Dr. Johnson famously said: “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” They see Donald Trump’s poll number go hockey stick and they tremble in their Beltway mansions. On the Kubler-Ross transect of grief, they are just now wavering between the stages of anger and bargaining.

• Second layer: the lawfare lawyer gang deployed to keep the blob safe from investigation and prosecution: Marc Elias, (the mail-in ballot fraud genius), Norm Eisen, Andrew Weissmann, Mary McCord (authors of every get-Trump legal brief), and many others who work with them, are motivated by the gigantic fees they command from the Democratic National Committee and other cut-out orgs that funnel payments to them. The Elias Law Group alone is rumored to have raked-in millions from one client, the Kamala Harris campaign. This is apart from whatever lawyerly zeal they exercise so enjoyably in their blood-lust for Mr. Trump and his associates. Remember: Jacobins are sadists who derive pleasure from cruelly punishing their adversaries. It probably motivates them more than the money involved, since ambitious Beltway lawyers can always and easily make bundles of money from the most mundane services to the blob.

• Third Layer: the news media. The motives of these birds are the flimsiest: social status and professional stature. They operate within a self-referential reward bubble that provides psychological nourishment as long as they go along with the mumurations of their flock. They will be easiest to turn around as the national mood turns (and is now turning, sharply). A year from now, don’t be surprised if they treat Mr. Trump as a revered hero who saved the country from the malignant blob — and pretend that they never thought otherwise. By then, it will be too late for some, of course, and actual figures such as Lawrence O’Donnell and Rachel Maddow of MSNBC, Maggie Haberman of The New York Times, NBC’s Nicolle Wallace, will be drowning in their own slime trails.

Now, whether Mr. Trump would actively seek revenge is a thing apart from the paranoia of his adversaries.

On the one hand, he seems aware that his own place in history will rest not on looking backward to the harms inflicted on him as the sacrificial goat for the sins of “the deplorables” – the many Lawfare cases against him will likely be reversed in higher courts, or just dropped – but on attending to and fixing the many obvious, reality-based problems afflicting the nation: inflation, the horrendous debt, the libido for war induced by military contractors and neocons, the return of productive industry and jobs that pay living wages, sealing the border and expelling dangerous aliens, and stopping the race-and-gender hustles, to name a few things.

In 2016, Mr. Trump floated the idea of defaulting on US debt, or negotiating its terms. Sounded outrageous to some at the time. Now, with the BRICs org meeting to de-dollarize their trade arrangements, might be a ripe time to make such a move. He can reverse “Joe Biden’s” 2021 reversal of his border policies by executive order on day one, put a stop to the “sanctuary city” idiocy, and end all cash incentives to illegals currently inside the USA. He can negotiate a reasonable end to the Ukraine conflict that leaves that country neutral, as everyone knows it should be. He can incentivize the return of factory production with US companies. He knows (and you know) that there is a huge agenda of practical problems to face. Mr. Trump does not need the aggravation of stirring up further grievance and resentment among the defeated Wokesters. He needs them to get aboard a national reclamation project, get their minds right, and lend a hand.

Speaking of hands, on the other hand, remember that the signal weakness of Julius Caesar was pardoning his enemies. Since Mr. Trump is best known as a deal-maker, I believe he will seek to make a deal with the blob. The deal will be for them to cooperate in the prosecution of certain key figures in exchange for not demolishing their agencies altogether. Some of these people — Garland, Mayorkas, Fauci, Brennan, and Wray, for examples — really do need to do some ‘splainin’ in front of juries. That may be sufficient to clarify for history some of the damage the Woke insanity did to our country. We can’t pretend that nothing happened. Most of all, Mr. Trump has to defeat the sick belief that anything goes and nothing matters.

A dip in ‘soft’ data was overwhelmed by a resurgence in ‘hard’ data this week…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that ‘no landing’ narrative-builder pushed rate-cut expectations down for 2024 (but dovishly higher for 2025)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, under the surface of the markets is one narrative that even the MSM is struggling to battle with their lies!! The ‘Trump Trade’ is on like Donkey Kong...

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, it’s more than just a Trump victory, a “Red Sweep” is starting to emerge as a strong possibility…

Another low quality rally kept stocks propped into the weekend, according to Goldman trading desk with Small Caps leading the week strongly while Nasdaq ended unchanged…

The Small Caps gain was all short squeeze (and gamma squeeze)…

Source: Bloomberg

Banks were big winners this week while Energy stocks lagged huuuuge. Tech was unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX declined this week as various ‘event’ risk catalysts (and OpEx) fell off the books…

Source: Bloomberg

…but vol is set to rise into the election and FOMC…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a very chaotic (and holiday shortened) week, Treasury yields ended only marginally changed with the long-end modestly outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

With the 2Y Yield hitting 4.00% and back down while the 10Y yield dipped below 4.00% midweek, only to push back to the highs of the week this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ripped above $2700 for a new record high this week…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Silver rallied for the fifth week in the last six, breaking above $33 to close at its highest since Dec 2012

Source: Bloomberg

…Silver is outperforming gold in recent weeks (which should come as no surprise to professional subscribers)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its charge higher this week, back to near July highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The correlation between gold and the dollar is soaring to its highest since March 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin also ripped to its highest ‘close’ since June, nearing $70,000 this morning…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum continues to lag its big brother in crypto, erasing almost all of the DeFi boom outperformance…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices plunged significantly this week (with two big legs down) pushing WTI back below $70. This was the worst week for crude in over a year…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, all the prediction markets are bid for a Trump/Republican victory in November (but the ‘polls’ still favor Harris)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and of course, the MSM cry foul… somehow believing that this is ‘manipulated’ (as a reminder, in a market, there are buyers and sellers… why not ‘manipulate’ that ‘market’ back your way if you don’t agree with the price?)…

The UBS Republican vs Democrat Index just hit an all time high. Must be manipulated too? pic.twitter.com/sR5Yf4mmqo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 18, 2024

…but then again, we are probably the last people to claim that stocks are not rigged too…

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

Alternative economists have been predicting a long list of instabilities in the US economy and for some time. We’ve been proven right in the last few years on most of those predictions and, as usual, corporate media economists are now scrambling to pretend as if they “saw the danger coming” all along. They now suddenly have their own ideas on how to fix the very problems they used to call “conspiracy theory.” The vital question is, who do you trust?

You can’t trust someone to offer you a valid solution if they’re too dense to understand the source of the crisis. You also can’t trust someone to give you valid solutions on the economy if their job is to lie to you about how great things are.

The alternative media’s accuracy about our nation’s dire circumstances has put us in a position to be right which should at least win us some trust points, but being right is only the first step. There will always be government shills that seek to undermine truth-tellers by claiming we serve no purpose because we aren’t actively fixing the problems that they warn about.

Frankly, that’s not our job. However, it’s true that our movement has a tendency to focus on diagnosis of a problem rather than prevention or treatment.

There are a few reasons why this is the case. I’ve noticed that whenever I write about solutions I get far less article traffic. Is it because people just don’t care? Or, is it because solutions are hard and require vast coordination of people and resources to ever be possible?

National solutions require millions of Americans get off their couches, go outside, and take extensive risks. This is why human beings in general tend to adapt to the worst conditions until things are so bad society snaps. We wait until we can’t stand it any longer, and then finally, we take action.

Another road block is that liberty movements are made up of people who all have their own ideas on what should be done. Most of us agree on the causes of the chaos, very few of us agree on what exactly to do about them. It’s funny because black-pill critics often accuse conservatives and patriots of falling into the echo chamber trap. The reality is quite the opposite; we can’t seem to ever shake hands on anything and it’s holding us back.

The thing is, time is running out and debate is a luxury. I believe Americans today are close to the breaking point economically with stagflation continuing to crush the middle class and those already in poverty. The future is bleak; housing costs have spiked to levels beyond what the vast majority of people can afford. All necessities including food and utilities have seen a 30%-50% minimal price increase since 2020, and inflation continues to rise.

Wages are stagnant and profit margins for employers are shrinking, which means the jobs market will be next to see cuts. By the end of 2025 and under current policies, I suspect we will be witnessing a combination of serious deflationary and inflationary crisis events simultaneously. A crash in employment and GDP combined with incessant price jumps on goods and services.  This crash has been decades in the making and might be unavoidable. That said, I do believe there is a way out, but it requires dramatic changes in the way our government and society operates.

The policy measures I suggest are a kind of fiscal time machine – A way to turn back the clock on collapse. Some might consider them “radical” but they are only policies that America USED TO value and that we have been pressured to forget. Can the modern American brain with its steady exposure to big government and socialist programs handle such a shift? It’s hard to say.

I think if people are desperate enough they’ll accept any solution that they feel works. And for now the elites that created the crisis are the only group offering a way out (a false way out). If I could snap my fingers (or if I was king for year), this is the list of actions I would undertake to save the American economy before the end of 2025 (or at least set it on the the path to resurrection).

End Income Tax For The 99%

My very first step would be to end income taxes for individuals and small business owners outside of the top 1% of earners (those who make more than $800,000 per year). The permanent income tax was never supposed to exist. It started in 1913 as a tiny 1% rate on net personal incomes over $3,000, and a 6% surtax on incomes over $500,000 (the super rich at that time).

In the past century it has ballooned into a 15%-20% monstrosity that is crushing middle class buying power. It also feeds bigger government which wastes money and leads to less and less freedom. There is no reason for the tax to exist for average citizens other than to act as a slave tribute to the Federal Reserve Bank. Shutting it down would immediately alleviate financial pressures on middle class families and getting rid of the IRS would certainly help shrink government spending.

How would the government pay for services and national security? Well, right now they print most of that money from thin air anyway, but tariffs on foreign trade used to be the main source of income for the federal government. Why not go back to that model? Because some biased Keynesian economists claim it can’t work? It already has worked.

End Property Taxes On Single Family Homes

Property taxes are supposed to act as a fiscal buffer for local infrastructure and services. They are also meant to dissuade major buyers from hoarding homes and cornering regional markets. The problem is, the taxes are doing the opposite of that. With high property taxes most US families can’t afford to own even one home, while corporate buyers snatch up distressed mortgages and drive up rents.

This scenarios is going to create mass homelessness, mark my words. It’s already starting in some areas of the country. Inflation in housing is bad enough but the high interest rates on mortgages and the high property taxes on top of that is enough to break most middle class buyers.

Fixing rates and inflation is complicated, but property taxes could be ended tomorrow. By extension, high property taxes on corporate buyers like Blackstone might force them to release some of their holdings back onto the market and help lessen the ongoing housing shortage.

How else can communities pay for local infrastructure and services?  A fair sales tax should be more than sufficient to fill the gap, or, a tourism tax.

Remove All Illegal Immigrants From The US

The illegals need to go, there’s no way around it. All the data shows they are a drain on national resources and welfare programs, but worst of all, they receive subsidies from the government that allow them to snap up housing and eat into welfare programs. In some cases, landlords are enticed to rent to illegals over native born citizens because they get more money (or tax breaks) for renting to migrants instead.

Estimates from 2023 indicate there are at least 16.8 million illegal immigrants in the US today with a net fiscal drain of over $150 billion per year. That’s also millions of homes taken off the market by people who should not be in this country. US housing availability is currently in the negative by 5 million to 7 million homes (officially). Removing most illegals could be accomplished in a single year and would immediately solve housing shortages while bringing prices down by adding more supply.

Beyond housing, the money that goes to welfare spending on migrants could be better utilized for American citizens, including  a better emergency response for those that lose their homes during natural disasters.

Incentives For Married Couples With Children

The western world has a population decline problem that is likely to hit us hard in the next decade. The elites claim that’s why we need mass immigration, but fixing our population problem with cultural replacement from the third-world is not the answer.

A major factor is the decline in stable relationships and nuclear families (marriage between men and women). This same lack of family stability is causing unprecedented social issues. Single mother homes are statistically more likely to produce children with criminal behavior and mental health problems. Children from fatherless homes are 20 times more likely to end up incarcerated. This is an insidious drain on our culture and our nation’s wealth.

Many men point out that marriage is a huge financial risk under current divorce laws and this has made the practice untenable. But even removing unfair divorce laws would probably not solve the greater conundrum. Eliminating feminism from our society would be a good start, but that’s an elusive goal requiring many years of social healing.

One thing that could be done in a single year is to create incentives for married couples that want to have children. Easy access to home loan programs would be a start, along with educational subsidies for viable careers in STEM or technical fields so they can get higher paying jobs that actually serve national needs. Eventually, a return to financially stable single income families could be possible.

Business And Technical Apprenticeships

America’s economy used to thrive due to the old standards of apprenticeship. This was a way for those that could not afford a higher education to still learn and obtain a valuable trade. George Washington, Benjamin Franklin and Paul Revere were ALL apprentices at one point in their lives. We need to bring this tradition back.

Specifically, we need apprenticeships in business operations, medical, manufacturing, engineering, the sciences, technical (repair and fabrication), construction, as well as computer and software fields. The US has a self sufficiency problem when it comes to production that needs to be solved immediately.

Revitalizing America’s worker base and small business base is the key to stopping our exponential slide into oblivion. We need to show people there’s a light at the end of the tunnel or they might give up completely. In particular, the trend of young western men dropping out of the workforce is worrying. Most of them want assurances that they’ll be able to one day do a job that actually means something.

Yes, some of them are spoiled overgrown children that have delusions of becoming YouTube stars and there’s no way to help those people. But, many others are good men that are willing to work hard as long as they’ll get a fair chance for something better in return. They have no direction because all the doors have been shut. Men make the world go around, and when a society abandons their young men the way the west recently has, only disaster can follow.

The above measures are all items that can be adopted in a very short period of time. In a single year every one of them could be instituted by a proper government, federal or state.  And yes, I’m aware that government officials with the balls to enact these policies are likely few.  That’s not a revelation, but that doesn’t mean we abandon the effort.  Even with a Harris presidency, individual states could save themselves with these solutions without federal assistance.

Other actions would have to be long term. Reversing inflation, shrinking the size of government, ending the central bank and reverting money creation back to the Treasury, shifting the dollar to a commodity backed system, rebuilding America’s manufacturing base, etc. – All of these efforts will take many years to succeed.

Getting off to the right start is essential. I argue that the above list could be implemented quickly and create a resurgence in economic optimism. This is the launch point by which all other solutions will unfold. It’s not enough to declare our high-minded ideals and goals, there has to be a plan.

*  *  *

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Authored by Tom Mitchelhill via CoinTelegraph.com,

The district court judge overseeing betting market Kalshi’s suit against the United States Commodities Futures Trading Commission “erred at every turn” when it allowed the platform to list and trade election odds, the regulator says.

In an Oct. 16 filing to a Washington, DC, appeals court, the CFTC said a federal court ignored the “plain meaning” of terms under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and prevented the regulator “without basis” from properly examining certain kinds of transactions. 

The regulator argued the court “mistakenly erred” when considering important details on whether Kalshi should be allowed to list political event contracts. 

The CFTC said the court had “ignored or disregarded” simple definitions of what constitutes “gaming” or “event-focused” contracts or transactions when allowing Kalshi to list election odds on its platform. 

The CFTC said the court “mistakenly” erred on several important definitions in its lawsuit with Kalshi. Source: CourtListener

Kalshi sued the CFTC in November 2023, aiming to overturn an order prohibiting Kalshi from listing political event contracts. 

Kalshi prevailed in its lawsuit in September, with a Washington, DC federal court ruling that the commodities regulator would not be allowed to prevent Kalshi from listing political election contracts. 

Still, the CFTC appealed the ruling on Sept. 6 and sought an “emergency stay” to stop Kalshi from listing political contracts until the outcome of the appeal had been decided. 

On Oct. 2, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled against the CFTC’s appeal and on Oct. 7 Kalshi was legally permitted to list US election odds markets.

Following its victory over the CFTC, Kalshi listed dozens of election betting contracts, including odds on the outcome of the presidential election, the winner of the popular vote and which state will have the narrowest margin of victory. 

In its most recent filing, the CFTC said Kalshi’s election contracts are akin to gambling and should be barred from being listed in the US.

“Kalshi’s website previews other contracts, including what it refers to as ‘parlays’ (a term used in sports betting) on various election outcomes, as ‘coming soon,’” said the CFTC. 

In an Oct. 11 filing, the judge overseeing the case agreed to expedite the final ruling on the CFTC’s appeal, though the final brief from the CFTC is not required until Dec. 6, about one month after the election.

Due to the ongoing legal proceedings, Kalshi has been forced to wait on the sidelines while other betting markets such as Polymarket raked in billions of dollars in betting volume.