Month: October 2024

US equity futures pointed to an unchanged open as earnings from Bank of America and Goldman Sachs beat expectations while megacap tech stocks showed modest moves. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were unchanged after closing at a 46th record high on Monday, while Nasdaq futures dipped 0.1% as Nvidia shares fell 1% in premarket after Bloomberg reported Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia and other companies. Bond yields are lower and USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-yr yields are down 0.36bp, 1.75bp, 3.53bp respectively. Oil tumbled as much as -5% from yesterday close after the WaPo reported that Israel may avoid targeting Iran’s crude infrastructure, although Israel later denied the claim. Chinese stocks slumped: HSI and CSI closed -2.6% and -3.7% lower today after the WSJ reported that the motivation behind the recent policies is not “massively stimulate demand but to fend off a brewing financial crisis.” Aluminum and Copper are both more than -1% lower this morning. On the macro front we get October Empire manufacturing (8:30am) and September New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am), and three Fed speakers. All eyes on earnings from BofA and Goldman today.

In premarket trading, Bank of America climbed 2% after its Wall Street operations performed better than expected as the company reaped the benefits of volatile markets. Net interest income topped analysts’ estimates. Goldman rose more than 3.3%, after it also reported earnings that beat across the board. Nvidia and AMD dell after Bloomberg reported the Biden administration discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips to some countries. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Coty drops 4% after the beauty company provided some preliminary 1Q results that disappointed.
• Etsy declines 5% after Goldman Sachs cut the online retailer to sell, citing a more selective approach to e-commerce stocks ahead of earnings.
• Schwab climbs 3% after posting adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Trump Media & Technology rises 7%, putting the stock on course to extend its rally into a fourth consecutive session.
• UnitedHealth slips 3% after the health insurer trimmed the higher end of its profit forecast for the full year.
• Walgreens Boots gains 5% after the pharmacy chain gave a sales forecast for its 2025 year that exceeded the average analyst expectation.
• Wolfspeed rises 21% as the company is in line to win $750m in US government grants as well as $750m in financing led by Apollo Global Management Inc. to support its factory expansion plans.

Energy shares fell premarket trading, as oil prices plunged below $75 a barrel after a WaPo report that Israel will hold off attacking Iranian oil facilities. Israel later denied this, saying “it is listening to US misgivings about its planned counter-strike against Iran but will act based on its own assessments” but by then it was too late and the oil selling CTAs had been engaged.  The IEA added to the selling pressure as they warned swelling American production is set to create an oil glut in early 2025.

Elsewhere, Citigroup, Goldman and Bank of America are among the companies reporting Tuesday, while Netflix and JB Hunt will also present results later this week. Investors appear undeterred by reduced profit forecasts and are instead betting on positive surprises. Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management, expects earnings season to be pretty good, but mostly because expectations have been lowered. “Consensus is around 4% year-over-year. It’s a fairly low bar,” he said.

Oil’s drop fed through to energy stocks, which dragged European stocks lower. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.2%, dragged down by declines in energy shares such as TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc. Beauty stocks LVMH, L’Oreal SA, Puig Brands SA also fell after US outfit Coty Inc. lowered its sales-growth guidance overnight.

Earlier int he session, Asian stocks reversed gains of as much as 0.7%, driven by sharp losses in Chinese and Hong Kong stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, reversing a 0.7% climb, with Chinese technology stocks including Meituan, Tencent and Alibaba the top laggards. Stocks in both mainland and Hong Kong dropped, raising doubts over the outlook for a market that is struggling to sustain the ferocious rally of late September. Energy was the worst-performing sector on the regional index, as oil dropped after a report that Israel may avoid targeting Iran’s crude infrastructure eased concerns over a major supply disruption. Sentiment took a hit after China’s export growth slowed in dollar terms from last year, hurting one of the few bright spots in the economy. Investors are still trying to assess the scope for government stimulus after its latest pledge for support.

“This is Beijing’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment,” Yan Wang, chief of emerging markets and China strategist at Alpine Macro, told Bloomberg TV. “If Beijing is really committed to boosting the economy, they need to use the balance sheet of the central bank and the central government to reflate the economy,” he said.

And yet according to the WSJ, this is anything but China’s whatever it takes moment: citing “people familiar with the decision-making”, the WSJ said that this isn’t a stimulus measure, but rather a derisking step, indicating that this is just another half-baked “half-measure” from the Xi admin, assuring that much more stimulus will be needed eventually: “Absent from the measures are any significant moves to boost consumption. People close to the ministry say such measures are in the works but nothing substantial is imminent.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held steady after rising 0.3% Monday. “The bias is for a stronger USD,” Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., wrote in a note. “Encouraging US economic activity and sticky underlying inflation argue for a cautious Fed easing cycle.” The pound rose 0.1% after mixed UK jobs data, while the Japanese yen tops the G-10 FX leader board with a 0.5% gain: USDJPY briefly dipped below 149 after rising just shy of 150 on Monday.

In rates, treasuries and European government bonds rise as traders gravitate toward safe-haven assets. Treasury yields are richer by 1bp to 4bp across maturities with the curve flatter in cash trading after Monday’s holiday, during which stocks and futures were open. 10-year yields at around 4.07% are ~3bp richer on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by an additional 1bp. Bull-flattening in Treasuries leaves 2s10s, 5s30s spreads about 2.5bp tighter vs Friday’s close. Bonds have support from slide in oil prices spurred by a report Israel may avoid targeting Iran’s crude infrastructure, which eased concerns about supply disruption.

In commodities, brent crude futures fall some 4.8% to below $74 a barrel after the WaPo reported that Israel may avoid targeting Iran’s crude infrastructure eased concerns over a major supply disruption. The IEA added to the selling pressure as they warned swelling American production is set to create an oil glut in early 2025. Amusingly, even though Israel later denied the WaPo report – which was meant precisely to hammer oil – the price of the commodity failed to rebound. Spot gold reversed an earlier fall to rise $6.

Looking at today’s calendar, we get the October Empire manufacturing (8:30am) and September New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am). Fed speakers scheduled include Daly (11:30am), Kugler (1pm) and Bostic (7pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,904.25
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 524.23
• MXAP down 0.2% to 191.98
• MXAPJ down 0.7% to 609.24
• Nikkei up 0.8% to 39,910.55
• Topix up 0.6% to 2,723.57
• Hang Seng Index down 3.7% to 20,318.79
• Shanghai Composite down 2.5% to 3,201.29
• Sensex down 0.3% to 81,766.76
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 8,318.37
• Kospi up 0.4% to 2,633.45
• German 10Y yield down 3.6 bps at 2.24%
• Euro little changed at $1.0904
• Brent Futures down 4.2% to $74.24/bbl
• Brent Futures down 4.2% to $74.24/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,655.02
• US Dollar Index down 0.14% to 103.15

Top Overnight News

• China is starting to enforce a tax on overseas investment gains by the country’s wealthiest citizens, an initiative aimed at both driving gov’t revenue (to help pay for fiscal stimulus) and pursuing Xi’s “common prosperity” initiative. BBG
• Xi isn’t looking to massively stimulate demand or ease his iron grip on the country’s economy but instead stave off a financial crisis by providing support to overindebted local governments and bolster the stock market (his shift on policy was more tactical than strategic). WSJ  
• Chinese banks are set to trim rates on 300 trillion yuan ($42.3 trillion) of deposits as soon as this week after the latest barrage of stimulus policies further squeeze their profitability. BBG
• The International Energy Agency trimmed its forecast for this year’s oil-demand growth for the third month in a row, as a rapid slowdown in Chinese consumption weighs on the global outlook. WSJ
• Global sovereign debt will hit $100T by the end of 2024, or ~93% of aggregate GDP, with the figure headed to 100% by 2030 as it warned governments will be forced to make difficult fiscal decisions. BBG
• Israel has told Washington it will hit Iranian military targets, not oil or nuclear infrastructure, as Netanyahu looks to retaliate without escalating the situation. WaPo
• The Swiss financial regulator has ordered UBS to bolster its emergency and recovery plans in light of the added risk it has taken on following its takeover of Credit Suisse last year. FT
• Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would limit some nations’ artificial intelligence capabilities. BBG
• Home builders are still offering mortgage rate buydowns to attract buyers, despite falling mortgage rates. The cost of buydowns is eating into home-builder profits, and they might need to turn to other strategies such as price reductions. Home-builder share prices have been rising, but the outlook is more challenging if more previously owned homes come on the market. WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed as most major indices followed suit to the gains stateside where a tech rally led the S&P 500 and Dow to fresh all-time highs, although Chinese markets lagged following weak trade data. ASX 200 climbed to a record high with advances led by the top-weighted financial sector and miners. Nikkei 225 outperformed and gapped back above the 40,000 level on return from the long weekend. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured after weak trade data and stimulus disappointment, while trade frictions also lingered with the US mulling capping NVIDIA and AMD AI chip sales to some countries.

Top Asian News

• Chinese banks mull cutting rates on CNY 300tln of deposits as early as this week with the major banks to be guided by the PBoC’s interest rate self-disciplinary mechanism to lower rates on a number of deposit products, according to Bloomberg.
• China began enforcing an up to 20% tax on overseas investment gains by the country’s ultra-rich.
• US weighs capping NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) AI chip sales to some countries, according to Bloomberg.
• China and NDRC are to hold a meeting on financing for small businesses on October 21st
• Reuters Poll, China: growth & CPI forecasts cut.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.1%) began the session generally on a modestly firmer footing, but sentiment has waned as the session progressed, but with no fresh catalyst emerging in European hours. European sectors are mixed; Travel & Leisure takes the top spot, benefiting from lower oil prices, but also in a paring to some of the significant losses seen in the prior session. Telecoms follows closely behind, lifted by post-earning strength in Ericsson. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, alongside Basic Resources, which is hampered by continued Chinese demand fears. US Equity Futures (ES -0.1% NQ -0.2% RTY +0.1%) are trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark, taking a breather from the hefty gains seen in the prior session. US weighs capping NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) AI chip sales to some countries, according to Bloomberg. UBS Global Research has increased its 2024 year-end S&P 500 target from 5600 to 5850 and increased its 2025 target from 6000 to 6400 Earnings include: Ericsson (headline beat, CEO pointed to increasing customer momentum and N. America stabilising) Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH) Q3 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 7.15 (exp. 7.01), Revenue 100.8bln (exp. 99.28bln). FY adj. EPS view 27.50-27.75 (exp. 27.70), FY Revenue view (exp. 399.42bln); results which sparked marked pressure in the DJIA.

Top European News

 

• Dutch to Cut ABN Amro Stake Further as Exits Gather Pace
• Israel: Hamas in Turkey Directed Aug. Tel Aviv Suicide Bombing
• EU Agrees COP29 Climate Stance With Money Quandry Unanswered
• UBS Must Revise Post-Takeover Emergency Plans, Finma Says
• Orange Gets Holder Consent to Amend Terms of 2031 Notes

FX

• USD is mixed vs. peers alongside a lack of fresh macro drivers for the US other than comments from Fed’s Waller who said the Fed should proceed with more caution on rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting. For now, DXY is holding above the 103 mark and within Monday’s 102.91-103.45 range.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD with not much in the way of follow-through from a mixed batch of ZEW data; focus no doubt will be on the ECB on Thursday. EUR/USD has made its way back onto a 1.09 handle but is yet to approach yesterday’s 1.0936 peak.
• GBP is incrementally firmer with not much in the way of follow-through from the latest UK jobs report, which on the surface looked hawkish given the stronger than expected employment change and unexpected decline in the unemployment rate. However, the ONS stated in the release that the report may be overstating underlying employment growth.
• JPY is attempting to claw back some lost ground vs. the USD after USD/JPY stopped shy yesterday of the 150 mark, topping out at 149.98. USD/JPY has delved as low as 149.04 vs. yesterday’s 149.01 trough.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD and towards the bottom of the G10 leaderboard. AUD/USD is just about holding above Monday’s low at 0.6701 and the 0.67 mark. NZD/USD has extended its move below the 0.61 mark and 200DMA at 0.6093, ahead of the region’s CPI later on.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0830 vs exp. 7.0840 (prev. 7.0723).

Fixed Income

• Benchmarks are bid in a continuation of Monday’s modest rebound with upside today driven by marked crude pressure and Final inflation readings from France.
• Bunds at a 133.74 peak, resistance at 133.80 and 134.03, upside spurred by the crude moves (see commodities) and French final inflation which saw the harmonised numbers revised down and factor in favour of the doves into Thursday.
• Session high for benchmarks in the wake of remarks that the EU’s fiscal burden for upcoming Ukraine aide could be reduced if the US gets involved.
• Gilts gapped higher on the above energy angle and also the regions latest employment data which shouldn’t stand in the way of continued BoE easing; 96.71 session peak printed after a robust DMO tap.
• USTs firmer with the above applying, at a 112-07+ peak; yield curve mixed (returning from holiday outages for cash) with the short end seemingly propped up by Fed’s Waller on Monday while the long-end slumps given energy.
• UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.375% 2054 Gilt: b/c 3.08x (prev. 2.89x), average yield 4.735% (prev. 4.329%), tail 0.3bps (prev. 0.9bps)

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are well into the red, weighed on at the beginning of the APAC session on reports that Israeli PM Netanyahu informed the US that their response to Iran will target military facilities, not nuclear or oil sites. The complex then took another leg lower after the IEA OMR saw a downgrade to their 2024 world oil demand view, primarily driven by China. Brent’Dec currently near session lows around USD 73.50/bbl.
• Spot gold is firmer, but only modestly so. At a USD 2654/oz peak, a point which is over USD 10/oz shy of Monday’s USD 2666/oz best.
• Pressured, base metals in the red across the board and 3M LME Copper within reach of USD 9.5k from a high point just shy of USD 9.7k.
• WSJ article on Chinese stimulus: “Absent from the measures are any significant moves to boost consumption. People close to the ministry say such measures are in the works but nothing substantial is imminent.”
• IEA OMR (Oct): 2024 world oil demand growth forecast to 860k bpd (prev. forecast 900k); says China is the main drag on global oil demand growth, with China’s demand expected to rise only 150k bpd in 2024.
• Russia’s seaborne oil product exports in September are up 5% on the month, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iranian government says “Our response will be at the right time and place and we will not hesitate or rush”, via Al Arabiya.
• Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reports that a full agreement has been reached on the method, timing and strength of the response to an attack Iran, via Al Jazeera; the strike plan is awaiting the approval of the Ministerial Council for implementation.
• Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reports that a full agreement has been reached on the method, timing and strength of the response to an attack Iran, via Al Jazeera; the strike plan is awaiting the approval of the Ministerial Council for implementation.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu told the US that Israel will strike Iranian military, not nuclear or oil, targets, according to officials cited by The Washington Post.
• Israel Broadcasting Corporation cited Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office stating that they listen to the views of the US administration, but will make decisions based on Israel’s interests, according to Al Jazeera.
• UN Security Council expressed strong concern after several UN peacekeeping positions in Lebanon came under fire, while it urged all parties to respect the safety and security of UNIFIL peacekeepers and premises, as well as expressed deep concern for civilian casualties and the destruction of civilian infrastructure.
• US President Biden asked the National Security Council to inform Iran that any attempt on former President Trump’s life would be considered an act of war, according to Fox News. The White House later said it has been closely tracking Iranian threats against Trump and former Trump administration officials for years, while it warned Iran will face severe consequences if it attacks any US citizen.

Geopolitics: Other

• German official says if the US participates in the USD 50bln loan for Ukraine, the EU’s share of the loan may be reduced.
• NATO Secretary General Rutte in his first visit to Ukraine mission, welcomed plans for temporary deployment of US long-range missiles to Germany from 2026, while he said NATO will not be cowed by Russian threats and will keep its strong support of Kyiv.
• North Korea blew up part of inter-Korean roads, according to South Korea’s military. It was separately reported that South Korea’s military fired warning shots south of the demarcation line after North Korea destroyed inter-Korean roads.

US Event Calendar

• Oct. 15-Oct. 25: Sept. Monthly Budget Statement, est. $37.5b, prior -$380.1b
• 08:30: Oct. Empire Manufacturing, est. 3.6, prior 11.5
• 11:00: Sept. NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectat, prior 3.00%

Central Bank speakers

• 11:30: Fed’s Daly Gives Keynote Remarks
• 13:00: Fed’s Kugler Participates in Moderated Discussion
• 19:00: Fed’s Bostic Participates in Moderated Discussion

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Even though it was a partial US holiday with US fixed income closed, the S&P 500 (+0.77%) notched up its 46th record high of 2024 last night. The next hurdle is US earnings seasons that swings back into action today with Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson all reporting.

Markets got another boost right before the US open, as a Caixin report came out saying that China may issue 6tn yuan of ultra-long special government bonds as part of its fiscal stimulus. So that helped to support risk appetite, and the S&P 500 is now up +22.85% on a YTD basis, making this its strongest performance at this point in the year since 1997. Moreover, in the last 50 weeks it’s managed to advance for 36 of them, which is a joint record back to 1989.

Tech stocks were the largest driver of that rally, with information technology (+1.36%) the strongest performing sector within the S&P 500. The Magnificent 7 (+0.82%) saw a decent advance, led by a +2.43% gain for Nvidia. This saw the chipmaker post a new all time closing high, capping off a +39.6% gain from its low on August 7. This also helped the NASDAQ (+0.87%) to close less than 1% beneath its all-time high from July. There is a report overnight that the US is mulling over whether to place more limits on chipmakers exports of advanced AI chips to certain countries but the story doesn’t seem to have impacted Nasdaq futures which are flat.

Even with the tech moves yesterday, equity gains were pretty broad beyond that, with 80% of the S&P 500 constituents higher on the day and the small-cap Russell 2000 rising +0.64%. Over in Europe, the story of tech outperformance dragging up the broader indices was a clearer one, with the STOXX 600 (+0.53%) ending the day also less than 1% below its own all-time high from last month.

Whilst risk assets were climbing to new highs, oil prices started the week on a lower note amid some disappointment around the urgency surrounding China’s stimulus details as well as pricing out of geopolitical risk premium. On the China angle, investors were also concerned about several data releases, including the weekend inflation data that showed price pressures were even weaker than anticipated. Then yesterday, we had another set of trade data for September, which showed imports were only up by +0.3% year-on-year (vs. +0.8% expected), and exports only rose by +2.4% as well (vs. +6.0% expected). So the numbers were underwhelming, and yesterday also saw OPEC cut its forecast for oil demand growth in its latest report.

With this backdrop, Brent crude fell -2.00% yesterday, and it is down another -2.9% overnight amid reduced perceptions of escalation risks in the Middle East. The overnight fall follows a Washington Post report that Israeli PM Netanyahu has agreed to limit its retaliation in response to the October 1 strikes to Iran’s military targets rather than its oil facilities or nuclear installations.

Moving onto rates, it was an uneventful session thanks to the bond holiday in the US. But futures markets were open, and there were some indications that investors were becoming a bit more sceptical about rapid rate cuts from the Fed. For instance, the probability of a rate cut in November was dialled back slightly to 87%, having been at 89% at Friday’s close. And looking further out, the rate priced in by the Fed’s June 2025 meeting was up +3.2bps on the day to 3.65%. The moves came as Fed speakers continued to steer us away from expecting rapid easing, with Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari saying that “further modest reductions” would be appropriate over the quarters ahead, while Fed Governor Waller noted that “policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting”. The oil move over the last 36 hours may temper some of these more hawkish rate expectations today but Treasuries have reopened fairly flat in Asia hours after the holiday.

One reason that investors have been dialling back their expectations for rate cuts is a growing focus on inflation risk. Henry pointed out yesterday that the US 5yr inflation swap has now seen its biggest jump over five weeks since early March 2023, just before SVB’s collapse. That’s been driven by several factors, but it’s clear that inflationary pressures have been building, with commodities bouncing back thanks to China’s stimulus and developments in the Middle East, whilst central banks have engaged in faster easing than was expected only a few weeks earlier, not least with the Fed cutting by 50bps last month. So with the ECB widely expected to become the latest central bank to cut rates again this week, that’s one to keep an eye on.
Ahead of the ECB’s decision, sovereign bond yields were fairly steady in Europe, with those on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (-0.3bps) and BTPs (-1.4bps) not seeing big moves in either direction. The main exception to that pattern was here in the UK, where yields on 10yr gilts (+3.1bps) moved up to 4.24%. It also pushed the UK-German 10yr spread up to 197bps, which is the widest it’s been since August 2023.

In Asia, the Nikkei is leading the gains in the region, up by +1.58%, and reaching a three-month high as trading resumed after a holiday. The S&P/ASX 200 is also up by +0.77%, and the KOSPI has seen minor gains of +0.13%. In contrast, the Hang Seng is down by -1.24%, the CSI by -0.53%, and the Shanghai Composite by -0.52%, following weak inflation and trade data released over the past two days.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German ZEW survey for October, UK unemployment data for August, and Euro Area industrial production for August. There’s also Canada’s CPI release for September, and in the US there’s the Empire State manufacturing survey for October. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Nagel, and the Fed’s Daly and Kugler. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson.

Nvidia shares, which hit record highs on Monday, are now sliding in premarket trading in New York after a Bloomberg report revealed that US officials are considering restricting the sale of the chipmaker’s advanced AI chips to specific countries.

The report cites sources familiar with continuing talks within the Biden administration, which have discussed this new possible strategy in creating a ceiling on export licenses under the guise of ‘national security’ risks. They said the possible limation of these AI chips is centered around oil/gas-rich Persian Gulf countries with deep pockets and splurging on new massive AI data centers. 

Here’s more from the report:

Deliberations are in early stages and remain fluid, the people said, noting that the idea has gained traction in recent weeks. The policy would build on a new framework to ease the licensing process for AI chip shipments to data centers in places like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Commerce Department officials unveiled those regulations last month and said there are more rules coming.

A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council did not comment on internal Biden administration discussions. However, the spokesperson pointed to a recent joint statement by the US and UAE on AI published on the White House’s website:

We recognize the tremendous potential of AI for good, including to accelerate economic growth, transform education and healthcare, create jobs, and drive environmental sustainability. At the same time, we acknowledge the challenges and risks of this emerging technology and the vital importance of safeguards and protections with respect to the most advanced technologies.

About one year ago, the Biden administration restricted AI chip shipments to more than 40 countries across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East over fears Nvidia A100 and H100 could be redirected to China. 

In June, Tarun Chhabra, senior director of technology at the National Security Council, told the audience at a forum without naming countries, “We will have to have a conversation with countries around the world about how they plan to use these capabilities,” adding, “If you’re talking about countries that have a really robust internal surveillance apparatus, then we have to think about: How exactly will they use these capabilities to supercharge that kind of surveillance, and what will that look like?”

It’s still being determined whether the Biden administration will push through new chip restrictions. The immediate reaction in the market this morning was Nividia, down 1.3%, and Advanced Micro Devices, down 1.3%.  

Bloomberg added:

While officials have debated the best approach, they’ve slowed high-volume AI chip license approvals to the Middle East and elsewhere. But there are signs things could get moving soon: Under the new rules for shipments to data centers, US officials will vet and preapprove specific customers based on security commitments from both the companies and their national governments, paving the way for easier licensing down the road.

Any new AI chip restrictions from the Biden administration will add to the measures it has taken to arrest chip development and production in China—whether direct or indirect. New restrictions will certainly test US diplomatic relationships.  

Authored by Jack Phllips via The Epoch Times,

Mask mandates will be returning to several counties in California’s San Francisco Bay Area starting next month.

The orders, which were handed down by individual counties, apply mainly to health care workers, although at least two Bay Area counties have extended the requirement to visitors and patients.

A similar mandate was handed down broadly across the Bay Area for the 2023–2024 fall-through-spring period.

Health officials in counties who have issued upcoming mask mandates say that the face coverings are designed to reduce the spread of COVID-19, influenza, and other respiratory viruses, harking back to the COVID-19 pandemic when mandates were widespread across much of the United States.

Where the Mandates Are Going Into Effect

Alameda County, which encompasses the city of Oakland, issued an order last month that mandates staff at health care facilities to wear masks between Nov. 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025.

“The fall and winter of 2023-2024 saw substantial waves of RSV, flu and COVID19, and a similar pattern is expected this year,” the health order said, adding that such viruses “typically circulate and peak in Alameda County during the late fall and winter months.”

It warned that any violation of the order’s provision in Alameda County “constitutes an imminent threat and menace to public health, constitutes a public nuisance, and is punishable by fine, imprisonment, or both.”

The mandate only applies to staff and not patients or visitors.

Authorities in Contra Costa County issued a similar health order on Sept. 26 requiring health care staff to wear masks for the same time period with similar penalties. It also applies only to staff and not patients.

“The masking of personnel in these facilities is necessary to provide a layer of protection to patients during the respiratory season when risk of exposure is highest,” the county said.

Napa County issued an Oct. 1 health order that mandates health care workers in health care facilities wear masks. It doesn’t apply to visitors and patients.

“This Order requires each of these facilities implement and enforce a program requiring healthcare workers, regardless of vaccination status, to mask while in patient care areas. This order supersedes prior standing masking orders directed at healthcare workers,” the county wrote.

Going a step further, Santa Clara County—which includes San Jose—will require all people inside health care facilities, including visitors and patients, to wear masks from Nov. 1 to March 31, 2025. Exceptions are made for children under age 2 and people with medical issues in which a mask could interfere with the individual’s breathing or cannot remove a mask without assistance.

“Preventive measures like wearing a mask in crowded indoor places and staying home when you are sick continue to add layers of protection against respiratory viruses,” the county said in a news release issued last month. “Just like last year, the April 2023 health order will continue to require masks in all patient care areas of health care facilities starting November 1 and continuing through the winter respiratory virus period.”

Not Every Bay Area County Has Them

Sonoma, Solano, Marin, and San Francisco counties have not indicated whether mask mandates will go into effect at health care facilities, according to an Epoch Times review of recent orders from the counties.

Outside California

Aside from the Bay Area, it appears no other counties anywhere else in the United States will issue similar mandates at health care facilities.

However, if data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show cases of COVID-19 rising again, other areas may reintroduce mask mandates. Last winter, New York City reimposed a mask mandate at its hospitals as officials cited a rise in cases of the virus.

Over the summer, mask mandates were implemented for a period of time by at least two U.S. health care providers. The Tuba City Regional Health Care Corporation in Arizona said in early August that it would reinstate mask mandates at its facilities in the state for at least two weeks, while the Baystate Health in Massachusetts also implemented one in late August.

What the CDC’s Data Shows

As of Oct. 10, the CDC’s wastewater tracking tool shows that COVID-19 levels across the United States are currently at “low” levels, down from the “very high” amounts reported in mid-August. In August, COVID-19-related deaths in the United States were near all-time lows, according to the CDC’s historical data on the virus.

COVID-19 is now the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, according to a CDC report released over the summer. Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the virus was the nation’s third leading cause of death. It dropped to fourth in 2022.

A Moscow court on Monday sentenced a French citizen to three years in a penal colony on allegations of spying, in a case which has centered on his failure to register as a foreign agent. 48-year old Laurent Vinatier is being widely described in media is a “French researcher” who works for the Geneva-based Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, a nonprofit conflict-resolution organization.

He worked for the NGO as an adviser on Russia and Eurasia and was arrested in June after the Russian Ministry of Justice designated him a foreign agent, and as it was found he failed to register with the government.

Prosecutors allege that information he collected, including on Russia’s armed forces, could be used against the Russian military and state.

Russia alleges that he “purposefully collected information in the field of military and military-technical activities.” It comes after similar convictions of Westerners, including the saga of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich who was freed in a prisoner swap along with ex-Marine Paul Whelan in August.

“The court ruled to find Vinatier guilty and sentence him to three years in a general regime penal colony,” judge Natalia Cheprasova ruled.

Vinatier said he was unaware that he was supposed to register as a foreign agent, and his defense team has blasted the controversial 2012 law under which he was arrested, saying in a statement: “We consider the sentence harsh and will definitely appeal.”

The law requires any individual or entity receiving foreign support to legally declare themselves a foreign agent. It is similar to laws in the US, or many other countries which have parallel statutes.

The NGO for which Vinatier worked says that its main activity is “to prevent and resolve armed conflicts around the world through mediation and discreet diplomacy”. The French national traveled frequently on behalf of the NGO.

Russian media has noted that he pled guilty to the charges. Amid the Ukraine war, NGO’s are regularly under suspicion that external intelligence services use them as cover to gain access to the country and sensitive information.

Prosecution asks for 3 years and 3 months in prison for French citizen Laurent Vinatier on charges of collecting military data without registering as a “foreign agent.” Adviser to @hdcentre, he was arrested in Moscow in June and later admitted guilt.

Video: Mediazona pic.twitter.com/MBeCkqyrgj

— Mediazona (@mediazona_en) October 14, 2024

Russia’s RT has described that “Russia’s foreign agent law, first adopted in 2012 and expanded in 2022, requires anyone who receives support from abroad or is under the influence of entities from outside the country to register and be labeled as such.”

“While such persons or entities are not banned from operating in Russia, they face a range of restrictions,” the report adds. “Those found in violation of the law can face fines of up to 5 million rubles ($55,000) and up to six years in prison.”

Authored by Shane Harris via RealClearPolitics,

Vice President Kamala Harris’ comments about owning a “Glock” are proving to be, more than just a short-lived embarrassment, a microcosm of the problem plaguing her candidacy. Like other failed campaigns before, Harris’ camp seems to believe the public can be hoodwinked with prepared lines and ads and images that are at odds with the candidate’s record and identity.

“Tim Walz and I are both gun owners,” Harris said on stage in Philadelphia last month during her debate with Donald Trump. “We’re not taking anybody’s guns away.”

It was one of the more discordant remarks Harris has made throughout her short-lived campaign, and inadvertently highlighted her record of hostility toward gun owners and the Second Amendment. Harris has supported bans of popular firearms which she calls “assault weapons,” praised Australia’s gun grabs, and signed on to a Supreme Court brief which argued that the Second Amendment protects only a “collective” or “militia-related” right to bear arms – and not an individual right.

To many political observers, this transparent attempt to appeal to gun owners after her long history of anti-Second Amendment advocacy smacked of desperation. For some, it evoked memories of an infamous 2004 John Kerry campaign photo op which showed the Democrat nominee dressed in camo emerging from an Ohio cornfield with a double-barreled shotgun, supposedly just wrapping up a goose hunt. Kerry knew firearms – he’d served in combat – but the image felt utterly contrived.

Perhaps the most famous instance of a candidate pretending to be something he wasn’t and thinking a clever photo op would solve a terminal problem with his campaign was Democratic presidential nominee Michael Dukakis in 1988. Dukakis, then governor of Massachusetts, wanted to run on the Bay State’s economic resurgence – the “Massachusetts miracle,” he called it. The George H.W. Bush campaign had other ideas, producing a series of withering negative ads attacking Dukakis for his policy as governor allowing “weekend passes” for convicted murderers, his association with the ACLU, and his perceived weakness on national defense. In response, the Dukakis campaign tried to show their man’s toughness by orchestrating a photo op of him riding in an M1 Abrams tank.

It didn’t look authentic, and the image went viral before viral was a thing. Dukakis contributed a major laugher to the history of presidential campaigns. To this day the photo is regarded as one of the most consequential unforced errors in presidential campaign history.

Is Harris maybe facing her own “Dukakis in the tank” moment? Following her debate with Donald Trump, she insisted on doubling and tripling down on her gun comment, displaying a complete inability to read the room.

The first follow-up came a little over a week after the debate when Harris told Oprah Winfrey, “If somebody breaks into my house, they’re getting shot,” a jarring declaration she punctuated with one of her infamous cackles. Then came the awkward moment on CBS’ “60 Minutes” when the vice president said specifically that she owns a “Glock” and has “had it for quite some time.”

Were it not for those two subsequent comments, Harris’ initial debate remark might’ve faded away after some mild ribbing from conservatives.

So now Harris has created an even bigger headache for herself, namely because she has supported policies which would not only outlaw handgun ownership, but ban Glocks specifically. In 2005, Harris backed a San Francisco measure that would’ve outlawed handguns in the city; her 2008 Supreme Court brief in D.C. v. Heller explicitly argued that the Second Amendment does not protect the right of private citizens to use handguns for home self-defense – exactly what Harris told Oprah she has a gun for. Most Glocks also have what Harris would consider a “high-capacity magazine” (10 rounds), which she has forcefully called for banning.

In the end, Harris turned what should’ve been only a mildly embarrassing moment into a classic self-own. But missteps such as these aren’t aberrations, they are indicative of a deeper problem in a national campaign.

As Mike Dukakis later said himself about the notorious tank photo-op, “That didn’t beat me. If we had run a decent national campaign, that wouldn’t have had any effect.”

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. His work regularly appears on AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday publicly condemned increasing Russian-North Korean collaboration regarding Moscow’s war in Ukraine, which Zelensky for the first time said hasn’t stopped at providing arms, but has even witnessed Korean troops present in the battle zone.

“We see an increasing alliance between Russia and regimes like North Korea. This is no longer just about transferring weapons. It is actually about transferring people from North Korea to the occupying military forces,” Zelensky stated.

He highlighted the allegation as another reason that Ukraine needs more urgent support from it Western partners. Ukraine forces remain outmanned and outgunned along the front lines in the east.

“The front line needs more support,” Zelensky emphasized. “When we talk about giving Ukraine greater long-range capabilities and more decisive supplies for our forces, it’s not just a list of military equipment. It’s about increasing the pressure on the aggressor – pressure that will be stronger than what Russia can handle. And it’s about preventing an even larger war.”

Zelensky has of late sought to craft his messaging in response to the obvious signs of war-weariness among the European and American publics, hence his talking point of preventing a larger war.

“True peace can only be achieved through strength and the entire next week will be dedicated to working with our partners for the sake of such strength, for the sake of true peace,” Zelensky continued.

The claim that North Korean troops are actually deployed alongside Russian forces on the ground is nothing new. Last week, the South Korean government made a public accusation saying North Korean troops are currently fighting on behalf of Russian forces in Ukraine. 

The charge was specifically made by Seoul’s defense minister Kim Yong-hyun on Tuesday. He described that he has reason to believe that six North Korean officers were killed in Donetsk when a Ukrainian missile hit their location on October 3rd. He called reports which first surfaced in Ukrainian media “highly likely”.

The accusation, which lacks hard evidence, came after months of official US allegations saying the north has sent arms and ammo into Russia by the trainload.

What is clear is that Moscow and Pyongyang have made no secret that they are deepening their ties, including on the military front, but both sides have denied North Korean involvement in Ukraine.

There have been several exchanges of defense delegations, and Kim has visited Russia, and Putin even made a very rare visit to Pyongyang in June. The two leaders signed a mutual defense agreement this past summer.

If true this would mark a major escalation of N.Korea’s involvement. “More North Korean troops could be deployed in the war,” Seoul has warned. The West wouldn’t be able to do much, having already put fairly maximum sanctions on both Russia and North Korea. It could be another dangerous sign that the Ukraine war is getting more and more internationalized.

Via Middle East Eye

A slew of court cases around the world are raising questions about the legality and transparency of the international supply chain that helps keep Israeli F-35 fighter jets flying over Gaza and Lebanon. Israel has used the F-35, described by its American manufacturer Lockheed Martin as “the most lethal” fighter jet in the world, extensively in its nearly year-long offensive in Gaza, in which a reported over 41,000 people have been killed.

Best known for its stealth capabilities, the F-35’s use in Gaza, an enclave without an air force where less sophisticated F-16s and F-15s are perfectly capable of dropping bombs, may seem out of place. However, arms control experts and researchers say Israel has had to rely on F-35s to maintain the high volume of strikes conducted over the past year in Gaza and now in Lebanon, where weeks of bombings have killed more than 1,000 and displaced over 1.2 million.

“They need all of their planes to participate,” said Noam Perry, strategic research coordinator for the American Friends Service Committee’s (AFSC) Action Center for Corporate Accountability. Israel has been aided by surges in the flow of F-35 parts from the United States, which experts say have been crucial in keeping the planes airborne.

Litigation in the Netherlands has already stopped the transfer of spare parts stored at one of three global F-35 distribution hubs to Israel since February. As four cases against arms exports to Israel move forward, governments in the UK, the Netherlands, Canada and Denmark face difficult legal questions regarding F-35 parts made in their countries.

Middle East Eye also understands that NGOs that took Australia to court over arms exports to Israel in a case that was discontinued last year remain determined to find ways to hold the government accountable for F-35 parts manufactured there.

A key question posed by these cases is how the governments can continue to license the export of F-35 parts bound for Israel while complying with domestic laws and international treaties, which require them to assess whether such parts could have been, or will be, used in violation of international humanitarian law.

So far, the response in at least three of the countries – the Netherlands, the UK and Canada – is that F-35 parts sent to third countries, but ultimately destined for Israel, can be treated differently than weapons that go directly to Israel. One rationale provided by the UK and Dutch governments is that suspending parts whose final destination is Israel would disrupt the global supply chain, as the parts are difficult, if not impossible, to trace.

Last year, the US Government Accountability Office (US GAO) found that over $85m worth of spare F-35 parts had been lost globally because the US government and private contractors had not determined who was responsible for tracking them. 

However, arms control experts and litigants who spoke with MEE say this is clearly a case of politics, not logistics. “They can track these things within very small areas, in real time, everywhere in the world,” said Martin Butcher, policy advisor on arms and conflict for Oxfam, which is involved in a legal challenge against UK arms exports to Israel being brought to the High Court. “The idea that they can’t track them is absolute nonsense.”

Parts moved ‘at breakneck speed’

While experts say it is difficult to establish which type of aircraft Israel has used in specific attacks over the past year, it is clear that F-35s have played a key role in Israel’s air war on Gaza and now Lebanon.

Much of what is known comes from Israeli media reports or other public sources, including a post on Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s X account. This post was utilized by the Danish news outlet Information and NGO Danwatch to confirm that an F-35 had been used in a designated safe zone in Gaza in July that killed at least 90 people. However, there are other signs that the F-35 has been crucial.

Chairing a hearing before the US House Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces in December, Representative Rob Wittman said the F-35 program had “moved at a breakneck speed” to deliver more spare parts to Israel.

Last year, British companies used open licences covering the F-35 program 14 times to export items directly to Israel, nearly three times more than in each of the two previous years, according to data obtained by the UK-based Campaign Against the Arms Trade (Caat).

It is unclear when the shipments were sent in 2023, but Caat believes the jump likely indicates a heightened demand from Israel for spare parts since October 7.

While bombs are often the focus of arms embargo campaigns, spare parts for the F-35 – and other fighter jets in Israel’s fleet – have been critical to Israel’s air war in a way that is frequently overlooked by the public, said Josh Paul, a former State Department official who resigned in protest last October.

“Modern fighter jets rely on immense amounts of continuous maintenance,” said Paul, who is now a fellow at the US-based NGO Democracy for the Arab World Now (Dawn). He estimated that for every one hour of flying, a fighter jet requires three hours of maintenance.

“If you cut off the supply of spare parts, particularly on something like the F-35s, which relies on a global just-in-time delivery chain, it would very quickly become unflyable.”

Flying F-35s in seemingly unnecessary conditions over Gaza may have been useful for the Israeli Air Force to maintain fleet readiness and gain insights into the fighter jet’s capabilities in combat.

That information will also have been relayed back to the prime contractor, Lockheed Martin, the US Air Force and potentially other partner countries in the F-35 program, several arms experts told MEE. Lieutenant-General Michael Schmidt, who oversees the F-35 programme, said in December that Israeli F-35 users were “achieving exceptional mission capability rates and the aircraft is proving resilient.”

“We’re learning a tremendous amount and will apply lessons learnt to enhance fleet readiness across the globe,” he told the House Armed Services subcommittee. “A lot of militaries are benefiting from what Israel is doing right now,” said Perry of the AFSC. “All of the air forces that have F-35s, that have ordered F-35s or that have considered ordering them, they are all benefitting from this – and, of course, Lockheed Martin itself.”

A program like no other

The information sharing among F-35 partners is just one example of a global defense program that operates like no other. The consortium is managed by the Pentagon’s F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) and includes seven allied countries that have contributed varying amounts to the program’s research and development in exchange for price reductions on fighter jet purchases.

Israel signed a deal with the United States to procure a third squadron of 25 x F-35 stealth fighter jets from Lockheed Martin.

The $3 billion deal is being financed through U.S. military aid to Israel.

This will bring Israel’s total F-35 fleet to 75. pic.twitter.com/WJZ6ldZz3F

— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 4, 2024

Seven other countries that are not partners in the program have also purchased the F-35, including Israel. Lockheed Martin says the F-35 supply chain involves more than 1,900 companies in the US and in the countries that have acquired the aircraft.

Arms control experts told MEE that the F-35 is run on a “just-in-time” delivery system, allowing the fighter jet to send a message to alert its operators when a new part will soon be needed. “Then the base requests from the depot – whatever depot it is in, be it in the Netherlands or Japan – and says we need this bit,” said Oxfam’s Butcher. “It’s all tagged electronically.”

This is why many, including Butcher, are sceptical when governments say they cannot suspend F-35 components destined for Israel due to the difficulty of tracking them across a complex, multinational supply chain.

Gerard Jonkman, director of the Rights Forum, one of three Dutch NGOs challenging their government over arms exports to Israel, told MEE: “Even Ikea or any company in the world knows exactly where their spare parts are coming from. So what about a plane like this?”

“If one batch at a certain moment would turn out to be of bad quality, then you would need to know from where they are coming and in which planes they have been assembled.” Even if it is true that it is currently impossible to trace F-35 parts, this should be addressed, he said.

“If your logistical system is not able to cope with international law, then you have to find a way to change your logistical system,” Jonkman said.

When asked if components from partner countries could be tracked and traced, Lockheed Martin directed MEE to the US government. F-35 JPO spokesperson Russell Goemaere told MEE in a statement that maintaining accountability for parts and data is “essential to ensure prudent management of F-35 financial and operational resources”.

“However, most F-35 parts are part of a global spares pool procured for the benefit of all F-35 customers. Parts in this global pool are not designated for any designated end user as they are procured and are instead issued and distributed to our customers based on demand and prioritization, when needed,” Goemaere said.

“While the F-35 supply chain is capable of controlling material movement based on part number/configuration, no current system, process or business rule is in place to filter out or stop the movement of specific serial numbered material to any specific country based on its country of origin.”

Political problem

More than just a logistical problem, those challenging governments to stop the export of F-35 parts to third countries believe their governments feel locked into the US-run program.

“The US is the government that has taken and demanded complete control over the F-35 program, including which country can even buy it,” said Frank Slijper, leader of the arms trade project at PAX, the Dutch NGO involved in the legal challenge there. “They clearly have no interest in countries like the Netherlands or the UK messing up what is so central to American foreign policy.”

They also believe their governments may fear that if they suspend parts, they will be seen as unreliable partners in any future defence program. No partner country in the F-35 program, touted in promotional videos as “diplomacy in action”, is understood to have ever suspended parts.

Partner countries may also worry about the legal consequences of companies manufacturing and exporting F-35 parts if they suspend licenses to third countries.

On the other hand, they point out that, unlike the United States, all the countries where litigation is currently underway are parties to the Arms Trade Treaty. Under the treaty, arms transfers are prohibited when it is more likely than not that they will be used to commit certain human rights violations.  

“If they would not act on this specific case of F-35s and Israel, they lose their credibility,” Slijper said. “Subcontracting companies and countries indeed have a responsibility and they cannot leave it to another state – in this case, the US – that is not part of the Arms Trade Treaty.”

Jonas Devantier, the program advisor for Oxfam Denmark, one of several NGOs challenging the Danish government, said that during their legal case, he and others learned that roughly 90 percent of the arms exports Denmark provides to Israel are through the F-35 program.

One component made in Denmark is a pylon that releases bombs from the fighter jet. “So it is very clear that it is needed for the F-35 to be used in the way that they are,” Devantier said.

In March, the Danish government announced it was implementing “a very restrictive approach” to arms exports to Israel, which turned out to be restrictions on new export licences.

Existing licences, including those covering exports related to F-35s, remain in place.

Devantier said: “It has become more and more untenable to maintain that the F-35 fighters cannot or should not be subject to the same scrutiny as the other exports.”

Hearings in most of the court cases are scheduled to be held in the coming weeks.

Authored by Mary West via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A recent study from Lund University in Sweden has unveiled a more straightforward path to taming irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Eating less starch and sugar, which describes an eating plan called the starch- and sucrose-reduced diet (SSRD), not only matches the popular low-FODMAP diet in symptom relief but also proved superior in promoting weight loss and curbing sugar cravings.

Earlier research suggests that the SSRD is associated with other health advantages, and the low-FODMAP diet has some drawbacks.

Study Compares IBS Treatment Diets

IBS refers to a group of symptoms—primarily abdominal pain, diarrhea, and constipation—that occur without any visible signs of damage to the digestive tract. While the low-FODMAP diet has been the established dietary treatment, a study published in Nutrients in September compares it with an alternative approach. A low-FODMAP diet restricts the intake of certain carbohydrates, including wheat, lactose, fructose, rye, and barley.

In earlier research, SSRD showed promise for reducing IBS symptoms. However, the Nutrients study marks the first direct comparison between SSRD and the low-FODMAP diet.

“We launched this study in 2022 to compare SSRD and Low FODMAP,” Bodil Ohlsson, a professor at Lund University and co-author of the study, said in a press release. The study participants included 155 people with IBS, randomly assigned to follow either the SSRD or low-FODMAP diet for four weeks. At the beginning of the trial, they were not on any particular diet.

The results showed that both diets improved IBS symptoms by 75 percent to 80 percent. Also, at the end of the experiment, the participants in the SSRD group experienced more weight loss and fewer sugar cravings than those in the low-FODMAP group.

SSRD Versus Low-FODMAP Diet

FODMAP stands for fermentable oligo-, di-, monosaccharides and polyols, short-chain carbohydrates resistant to digestion. Doctors recommend the low-FODMAP diet for IBS because high-FODMAP foods tend to produce gas and alter bowel habits.

Despite this advantage, the low-FODMAP diet has the following drawbacks:

• The low-FODMAP diet excludes many nutritious fruits and vegetables, so restricting these foods in the diet may lead to deficiencies in vitamins and minerals, reported a clinical trial published in the Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics.
• The diet restricts prebiotics—high-fiber foods that increase the beneficial bacterial strains in the gut—potentially harming the gut microbiome.
• Some people complain about the complexity of the low-FODMAP diet, as it has an extensive list of foods to avoid.

In contrast with the low-FODMAP diet, the SSRD focuses on decreasing sucrose, starch, and added sugar. According to Ohlsson, it is healthy and simple.

“We wouldn’t really even call SSRD a diet,” she said in the press release. “It’s how everyone should eat, not just those with IBS,” Ohlsson added. “And unlike the low FODMAP diet, SSRD is easy to understand and easier to follow. You can eat everything when you are invited to dinner, just less of certain things. If you rest your stomach for the rest of the week, you can indulge a little one day!”

Why SSRD Offers Advantages

An array of mechanisms may underlie the positive effects of SSRD, Ohlsson told The Epoch Times in an email.

One factor may involve a rare deficiency in sucrase-isomaltase, an enzyme that breaks down sugar and starch. “Congenital sucrase-isomaltase deficiency is a genetic disease leading to gastrointestinal symptoms in children,” she said. “Increased prevalence of rare variants of sucrase-isomaltase genes has been found in IBS patients, which aligns with improvement of gastrointestinal symptoms by SSRD.”

Another potential mechanism relates to gut microbiota composition. Excess undigested carbohydrates in the bowel can lead to increased fluid secretion, Ohlsson said. The microbiota breaks down the food, leading to gas production. These effects lead to bloating, flatulence, pain, and diarrhea. Since the SSRD reduces carbohydrate intake, it decreases the symptoms that ensue.

“Additionally, the weight reduction may also lead to improved symptoms,” she added. “Fat tissue produces inflammatory and hormonal substances, so weight loss leads to reduced secretion of such substances. This may lead to less symptoms by reducing a low-grade inflammation.”

The benefits of SSRD in reducing weight and sugar cravings may partly stem from sugar’s low satiety effect, Ohlsson noted. Ingesting sugar leads to the intake of calories with less satiety, resulting in eating more. In contrast, ingesting fat promotes satiety, resulting in eating less. Thus, high sugar consumption results in consuming many more calories.

Following the SSRD

A 2021 study published in Nutrients outlines guidelines for following the SSRD.

The diet recommends increasing the intake of the following:

• Nonstarchy fruits and vegetables
• Meat and fish
• Dairy products without added sugar
• Butter and oil
• Fiber-rich grains such as oats, brown rice, and 100 percent whole-grain bread
• Nuts and seeds

The SSRD also involves avoiding the following:

• Starchy fruits such as bananas
• Starchy vegetables such as potatoes, corn, and beans
• Oat and soy milk
• Margarine
• Refined grains and processed breakfast cereals
• Sugary snacks and beverages

A Gastroenterologist Weighs In

How might the findings from the recent Nutrients study be received in the real world of gastroenterology practice?

Dr. Ashkan Farhadi, a board-certified gastroenterologist at MemorialCare Orange Coast Medical Center in Fountain Valley, California, shared his thoughts in an email interview with The Epoch Times.

He said he found the study very interesting due to the known drawbacks of the low-FODMAP diet and the potential additional benefits of the SSRD. “While there is no question that the low-FODMAP diet works, it is extremely restrictive,” he said. “In fact, most of my patients are not able to handle the low FODMAP because it deprives them of many fruits and vegetables.

“So I’m really happy to have an alternative that is actually very appealing, as nowadays, people are doing low starch and sugar for a variety of reasons,” Farhadi added.

For those tracking war maps from both sides of the conflict as well as geo-location data for troop positions, the failure of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk is not a surprise.  The movement of their forces stalled out only a couple weeks after their initial push into the territory and the Russians have been grabbing back pieces of land ever since.  However, for those people only listening to establishment news sources, the retaking of Kursk might come as a shock.

Russian troops have made significant advances from the western flank of Ukrainian positions, and reports indicate a threat of Ukrainian troops being encircled. 

The Telegraph, usually a platform for pro-Ukraine propaganda, notes that sources from both sides confirmed the Russian breakthrough, which occurred during the heaviest fighting on Russian territory since Ukraine began its cross-border incursion in August.

DeepState, a Ukrainian military blogger, said that there was a risk that Russian forces could encircle Ukrainian forces, although they later said that the front lines in Kursk were “difficult but under control”.  “The enemy pushed through the left flank of the Kursk grouping of Ukrainian defense forces,” the blogger said. “We are on the verge of another mess due to the repetition of mistakes.” (Keep in mind, major military “bloggers” in this conflict tend to have connections to government and military officials who give them battlefront information)

It should be noted that DeepState has avoided changing his war maps to reveal significant Russian gains in Kursk for many weeks.  It is likely that he has been dissuaded from doing so by officials in Kyiv in order to present a facade of success in Kursk.  The fact that he is admitting to those gains now suggests the situation is dire for Ukraine.

Russian military bloggers said that marines from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Guards Brigade had been involved in fighting around the Glushkovsky district of Kursk, where most Ukrainian forces had allegedly been overrun. 

Fears of potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Kursk come only days after US officials claimed they could hold the ground for months.

The strategic sense behind Ukraine’s Kursk operation remains a mystery.  Vladimir Zelensky claims the attack was designed to draw Russian troops away from the eastern front in order to slow down their non-stop bulldozing of Ukraine’s defensive positions.  Many of these towns and the defensive works around them have been held since 2014.  In other words, the fact that Russia is taking these positions so quickly indicates that something has gone very wrong for Ukraine (And we all know what the problem is – lack of manpower). 

As with all war, the losing side tends to implode all at once after a long period of seemingly static and secure defenses.

If the goal was really to divert the Russians away from the east, then the Kursk offensive achieved nothing.  The Kremlin actually increased their forces and attacks in the region after the Kursk event.  John Foreman, a former British military attaché in both Moscow and Kyiv, states:

“Russian progress actually picked up after Kursk…Politically, the Kursk offensive didn’t change much in Washington DC or Europe. I’m still unconvinced of its strategic merit.”

Kyiv’s recent declaration of a mandatory evacuation of more than 37,000 civilians from the Sumy Oblast region just across the border from Kursk provides more evidence that the area is about to be retaken by Russia.  It seems like the Kursk incursion was fuel for the western media hype machine, but other than that the effort served no strategic purpose.

Via OilPrice.com,

Technology Secretary Peter Kyle has suggested that Elon Musk was not invited to the government’s international investment summit due to his tendency to avoid such events. 

Previous reports suggested Musk, the owner of X and Tesla, was omitted from the guest list following controversial social media comments he made regarding Britain’s summer riots, where he controversially claimed civil war was “inevitable.”

In response to the snub, Musk recently said on X:

“I don’t think anyone should go to the UK when they’re releasing convicted pedophiles in order to imprison people for social media posts.”

However, in an interview with Times Radio this morning, Kyle said:

“Elon Musk has never come to any of the past investment summits that have been held under the previous government, he doesn’t tend to do these sort of events, but I stand absolutely ready to engage with him, to talk about any potential global investments he’s making – I’m not aware of any at this moment in time.”

He added that “we have good engagement with some of his companies” and praised Musk for the safe landing of his booster rocket yesterday.

On Sky News today, Kyle also denied that Musk was not invited because he called the prime minister “two tier Kier”.

The international investment summit, taking place today, will see Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledge to slash red tape that is hindering investment in the UK.

Australian infrastructure giant Macquarie is expected to announce £20bn in new investment in the UK, and total pledges from businesses at the summit could reach as high as £50bn. 

High profile speakers at the event include Blackrock boss Larry Fink, former Google chairman Eric Schmidt, ex-England manager Gareth Southgate, and Aviva chief Amanda Blanc. 

X did not immediately respond to a request for comment.