Month: October 2024

Authored by Thaddeus McCotter via American Greatness,

Presently, we are embroiled in a presidential campaign. It is the apex of political messaging, as both parties and their well-heeled allies bombard the electorate with varying promises, claims, smears, and deceits.

One of the Democrats’ and their “Never Trump” cohorts’ favorite narratives is that the GOP candidate, former president Trump, is divisive and that he must be defeated to allow the Democrat nominee, Vice President Harris, to unite the nation. To believe this, one must concur with the Democrats and Never Trumpers on two counts: first, Mr. Trump, his MAGA supporters, and the GOP are divisive; and, second, Ms. Harris and the Democrats are not divisive but rather a unifying political force.

For purposes of this piece, let us stipulate Mr. Trump and his MAGA and GOP supporters are “divisive,” if only for the simple reason they dissent from the Democrats radical, extreme, and dangerous agenda; and, moreover, unapologetically champion the populist and conservative principles and policies they believe will promote and protect the liberty, prosperity, and security of our free republic.

Nonetheless, even with this stipulation, it is impossible for an objective mind to conclude Ms. Harris and her Democrat supporters are a unifying force within our deeply divided nation. The Democrats are, by design, a divisive party that premises its campaigns and policies upon identity politics—race, gender, class, etc.; and, at root, offers the electorate varying and increasing levels of paranoia and dependence upon the Leviathan—i.e., the administrative state, which is controlled by their cohorts who are ensconced within the unaccountable and remunerative sinecures housed in the bowels of the federal bureaucracy.

Consider the Democrats’ demanding the citizenry’s obeisance to their DIE (“diversity, inclusivity, and equity”) secular religion, which one is compelled to believe above all else.

The left defines “diversity” with external traits, not internal thoughts. In sum, this inherently divides the entire population by physical traits and social castes into “manageable” political blocs—the “Balkanization” of the American electorate. Their root fallacy is that how you look determines how you think. The left purports it is using one’s “lived experience” to make this differentiation, but this experience is presumed to have occurred (even if it has not) based on your external appearance and/or economic status. Such a prejudicial pronouncement upon one’s fellow citizens is patronizing, demeaning, and—in its most heinous manifestations—racist. (Why do you think progressives have expended so much energy trying to redefine and dilute the definition of “racism” to weaponize it against, not racists, but non-leftists?)

Once an individual has been pigeonholed into one of the Democrats’ diversity classifications and it is marked with its “social credit” connotations, these leftist social engineers will cajole and coerce them into their “inclusive” collective, wherein what matters is not individual rights but one’s allegiance to the left’s ideological dictates. True, some individual rights and licenses are granted by the state, but they are in addition to our unalienable, God-given rights we already possess and that cannot be infringed by the state. The left disagrees, believing the state is the ultimate grantor of rights and that “Our Democracy” must not be impaired by the antiquated concept of unalienable, God-given constitutional rights. Consequently, the left believes a citizen’s rights are not God-given but rather government-given. As such, they constitute not unalienable rights; they are arbitrary and conditional licenses. This subordinates the citizens’ sovereignty to the supremacy of the state.

As the Supreme State doles its licenses, it will decide what is “equitable.” This is merely another of the left’s euphemisms for socialism—as is Ms. Harris’s “Opportunity Society.” But once citizens have been civically and economically diminished by the Democrats’ delineating and dividing them on basis of physical traits and economic status and by being subsumed into a leftist collective, Americans will have little recourse to dissent, let alone rid themselves of such a repressive, autocratic socialist regime.

Why would people subject themselves to this DIE agenda? This is where the left’s paranoia pimping enters stage left. The Democrats aver that they and their administrative state are needed to protect citizens from sundry conspiracies out to block Americans’ pursuit of happiness—or worse. Hence, the Greek chorus of Democrats wailing about “Systemic Racism,” “The Patriarchy,” “Threats to Democracy,” and so forth. This is literally a party that smears its opponents as existential threats to “Our Democracy” and demands these opponents be crushed so that they may never again threaten it. Such inherently divisive narratives are designed to lure people into the illusory “security” of the one extant entity capable of controlling Americans’ lives—“Their Government.”

So, how does a progressive manage to believe they are the champions of “Our Democracy,” even as they burn it to the ground to persecute their opponents? By reason of a simple intellectual sleight-of-hand. When Democrats bleat “Our Democracy,” it is a “prog whistle” that, translated, means “Our Party.” Conflating the fortunes of their party with those of the country, the Democrats have the capacity for enormous self-regard that allows them to engage in immense amounts of cognitive dissonance and self-justification as they attempt to foist their reckless, harmful agenda on Americans.

Yes, Republicans also believe their fortunes will save “Our Republic.” But there is a critical distinction. Democrats define “unity” as a uniformity of agreement. Republicans define “unity” as a uniformity of acceptance.

This explains why the Democrats are hellbent to force their DIE ideology on people and why Republicans oppose it. It is an overlooked irony that the left, which obsesses over the diversity of external traits, demands the conformity of internal thoughts. The Twentieth Century is replete with bitter instances of such an ideology’s failed attempts to dictate a rigid uniformity of ideological agreement in the vainglorious hopes of recreating and perfecting humanity.

The answer to such state coercion is still federalism and pluralism. A limited, divided government charged with protecting the unalienable God-given rights of sovereign citizens remains the surest path upon which to pursue one’s happiness. The acceptance required is of the ground rules of the nation—of the constitution, of the peaceable means of effectuating constructive change, of someone else’s thoughts and their right to hold and advocate them, and of your reciprocal right to disagree and oppose their ideas. E pluribus unum—“Out of many, one”—has well served and enriched our nation and must remain the abiding goal.

Again, the left deems federalism and pluralism as bars to the implementation of their autocratic, socialist state, which will determine and map your pursuit of happiness whether you like it or not. It is evinced in why the left crafted the word “diversity” to supplant “pluralism.” Ponder that the root of the word, “div-,” as is found in words such as “divisive,” “divest,” “divorce,” and so forth, that do not exactly scream “unity.”

Nor does their pushing of their “Our Democracy” narrative to supplant the reality we live in a constitutional republic with limits upon its enumerated and citizen-delegated powers; and the duty to serve as a guardian of our unalienable God-given rights and the U.S. Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic—be they a dictator or a mob.

As they do, the left reveals how their clamor and connivance for “Our Democracy” merely mark “Their Duplicity.”

Since the start of the 21st century, America’s defense spending has soared nearly 50%, with this year’s budget surpassing $841 billion. Yet, despite being the world’s largest military spender, the Pentagon alarmingly struggles to protect the homeland against the rising threat of spy drones operating within US borders. 

A new Wall Street Journal report said a fleet of spy drones swarmed some of America’s most sensitive national-security sites, including Langley Air Force Base on Virginia’s shoreline late last year.

For several nights, military personnel had reported a mysterious breach of restricted airspace over a stretch of land that has one of the largest concentrations of national-security facilities in the US. The show usually starts 45 minutes to an hour after sunset, another senior leader told Kelly.

The first drone arrived shortly. Kelly, a career fighter pilot, estimated it was roughly 20 feet long and flying at more than 100 miles an hour, at an altitude of roughly 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Other drones followed, one by one, sounding in the distance like a parade of lawn mowers.

The drones headed south, across Chesapeake Bay, toward Norfolk, Va., and over an area that includes the home base for the Navy’s SEAL Team Six and Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval port. -WSJ

US Air Force Gen. Mark Kelly told the Journal that he was stumped by reports of spy drones over Langley AFB. The Journal said the drones flew around the base and other highly sensitive military installations in the region at night for a little more than two weeks. Some officials suspected Russian or Chinese agents were conducting aerial spy operations.

Kelly said some drones were roughly 20 feet long and flew more than 100 mph at 3,000 to 4,000 feet altitude. None of these drones were shot down because federal law prohibits the military from dispatching F-22s, F-35s, and other fighter jets to neutralize drones for ‘aerial snooping’ – unless these unmanned systems posed an ‘imminent threat.’

Shortly after the spy drones first appeared across the Chesapeake Bay region, President Biden was briefed on the national security threat. Officials from the Defense Department, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Pentagon’s UFO office consulted with outside experts to understand the gravity of the situation. 

Drone incursions into heavily restricted airspace shouldn’t be some shocker in Biden-Harris’ America, where open southern borders have flooded the nation with ten-plus million illegal aliens, some of which have been terrorists, spies, prison gangs from South America, and other violent criminals. 

WSJ noted that Homeland Security Advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall spoke with other White House officials about deploying anti-drone guns to jam signals, yet did not because of the fear of disrupting local civilian communication networks. Another idea officials had to counter this threat was directed energy weapons, and again, weren’t deployed for fear of harming commercial jets. 

Authorities mostly ruled out the possibility of amateur drone pilots.

In early January, a Chinese student who attended the University of Minnesota was caught flying a drone near Langley AFB. The FBI found the Chinese student had drone footage of Navy ships docked at the base. He was arrested and charged with unlawfully taking photos of classified naval installations after trying to flee the country. 

The takeaway here is that this is an amazing display of incompetence by the military and federal government as those in the highest levels of power focus on a disastrous “woke” agenda that is weakening the nation from within. 

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a lawsuit against Virginia on Oct. 11, alleging that the state violated federal law by removing potential noncitizen voters from the rolls too close to the general election.

In a court filing, the DOJ alleged that Virginia’s voter removal program violated the “Quiet Period Provision” in the National Voter Registration Act, which requires that states complete their programs for removing ineligible voters from active rolls no later than 90 days before an election.

“Congress adopted the National Voter Registration Act’s quiet period restriction to prevent error-prone, eleventh hour efforts that all too often disenfranchise qualified voters,” Assistant Attorney General Kristen Clarke said in a statement.

The complaint, filed on Oct. 11, also named the state Board of Elections and Virginia Commissioner of Elections Susan Beals as defendants.

According to the complaint, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin signed an executive order in August requiring the commissioner to certify that daily updates to the state’s voter lists were being conducted.

These updates involved comparing the list of individuals identified as noncitizens by the State Department of Motor Vehicles “to the list of existing registered voters,” the DOJ stated.

Local registrars were then required to notify those voters that they needed to affirm their citizenship within 14 days or they would be removed from the list of registered voters, according to the Justice Department.

The DOJ said the process has resulted in U.S. citizens having their voter registrations canceled. The state removed 6,303 individuals from the rolls between January 2022 and July 2024, according to the complaint.

It further alleged that local registrars had no discretion to prevent the cancellation of voters who fail to return “an affirmation of citizenship” even if they have reason to believe that those voters are U.S. citizens.

“This systematic voter removal program, which the State is conducting within 90 days of the upcoming federal election, violates the Quiet Period Provision,” the DOJ said in a statement.

Youngkin criticized the Biden administration for filing the lawsuit with less than 30 days before the election and said that he had “appropriately” enforced the law.

The Republican governor called the DOJ’s lawsuit “unprecedented” and said it was a “politically motivated” attempt to interfere with the state election, according to a statement issued by his office on Oct. 11.

“Virginians—and Americans—will see this for exactly what it is: a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of the elections in the Commonwealth, the very crucible of American Democracy,” Youngkin stated.

“With the support of our Attorney General, we will defend these commonsense steps, that we are legally required to take, with every resource available to us.”

The DOJ filed a similar lawsuit against the state of Alabama and its Secretary of State on Sept. 27 over the state’s program that was aimed at removing ineligible voters, including noncitizens, from active rolls. It stated that Alabama announced the launch of the voter roll purge program 84 days before the Nov. 5 general election, which violated the National Voter Registration Act.

Having ignored the election for far too long, rates traders are starting to price in US election risks to Treasury and volatility markets, according to Goldman strategists who continue to recommend shorting 10-year TSYs versus German bunds. Meanwhile, Citi took profit on a long breakevens position, while BMO looks to enter the trade should rates fall to more favorable buying levels.

As a reminder, now that the Nov 5 election has entered the 30-day “catalyst window” of the VIX…

… the VIX remains stubbornly high, and in fact as Goldman trader Brian Garrett noted recently, it is extremely rare to see the VIX print above 20 when the S&P hits a new all time high as it just did.

A big reason for this is that the market is finally starting to sweat the outcome of the Nov 5 election, which at least until very recently, it would blissfully pretend doesn’t matter.

But before we take a look at how equity traders are assessing the election, here is a snapshot of what Wall Street’s rates traders and strategists are saying:

Bank of America (Mark Cabana, Meghan Swiber and others, Oct. 11  report, available to pro subscribers)

• Maintains dip-buying stance and real steepeners bias, favors adding duration with 10-year trading between 4% to 4.25%; five-year the preferred tenor
• “We prefer to allocate to longs at the belly vs back end of the curve as election remains a risk” while “We recommend holding off on adding to duration further out the curve until we pass peak election risk”

Barclays (Anshul Pradhan and others, Oct. 10 report, available to pro subscribers)

• Keeps view to pay 5y5y USD versus EUR rates (via OIS vs. ESTR, entered at 80bp): “US far forward rates still do not appear to be pricing in enough term premium, and EUR far forwards should reflect the risk of a low neutral rate”
• “All in all, the data argue against the need for a material easing beyond some further re-calibration, and Fedspeak implies risks are skewed towards over-easing”

BMO Capital Markets (Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman, Oct. 11 report)

• Stays in 2s10s steepener (entered at 9.8bp, currently around 14bp) but were stopped out of 2s30s steepener
• Looks to enter long 10-year breakevens in the event they fall below 223bp, the close on Oct. 4 jobs report day
• “With CPI and PPI in hand, our read is that the September inflation profile has solidified expectations for a 25 bp rate cut next month” while “there is a very high bar for the remaining pre-Fed data to truly put a pause on the table for the November FOMC meeting”

Citi (Jabaz Mathai and others, Oct. 11 report, available to pro subs)

• Takes profit on long 10-year breakeven position around 2.342%, writing “The Treasury curve is now back to levels that are more consistent with a realistic assessment of benign/soft landing vs. hard landing probabilities for the economy”
• Upside data surprises like September CPI “raise the likelihood of a skip this year if payrolls don’t deteriorate into year-end. The Fed will in all likelihood go 25bp in November, as monetary policy is still quite some distance away from neutral”

Goldman Sachs (William Marshall and others, Oct. 11 report, available to pro subs)

• Maintains recommendation to be short 10-year Treasuries versus bunds, “which we think is positioned well for our baseline but can also benefit if the market presses on election-related risks (either fiscal or tariff-related)”
• Traders and vol market are increasingly focused on US election with most key data risks behind us (save for October jobs report)
• “Shorter expiry vol on longer term yields has richened on the surface since the start of the month, likely reflecting a combination of uncertainty shifting away from the very near-term Fed path towards terminal rate considerations, as well as a greater focus on post-election risks”

TD Securities (Gennadiy Goldberg and others, Oct. 11 report)

• Re-enters 5s30s steepeners, prompted by several reasons including:
  • Easing inflation and jobs momentum hints at more gradual cuts ahead
  • Less prohibitive carry
  • Election uncertainty
• “We remain of the view that labor market dynamics are likely to continue driving policy decisions by the FOMC in the near term”

While rates strategists are dignified, nuanced creatures, stock traders, on the other hand, are simpler brutes, and here things are somewhat easier. Indeed, one can see a dramatic reversal with Goldman’s Republican Victory basket – a proxy for Trump’s odds – surging in recent days to new all time highs, while the Democrat Victory basket – a proxy for president Kamala – suddenly sinking.

Indeed, with just weeks to go until the election showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, odds are increasingly shifting in Trump’s favor: “A Trump victory would likely be positive for risk sentiment, though more for US assets at the expense of Europe and rest of the world,” Kumar said. “In our view, the environment remains broadly positive for risky assets.”

And while public polls remain irrevocably politicized, with massive Democrat oversampling still skewing results grotesquely to the point where most polls are meaningless – although even here we are seeing a massive surge in support for the former president with the latest poll by MSM flagbearer NBC showing Kamala’s 5 point lead evaporate…

New NBC poll: Harris 5 point advantage over Trump is now gone. pic.twitter.com/V3bEtZMTh0

— Shermichael Singleton (@MrShermichael) October 14, 2024

… in far more accurate online betting markets, Trump’s spread over Kamala on Polymarket is now the highest it has been and is approaching Trump’s blowout odds observed against Joe Biden… Pelosi.

… before he was forced to pull out of the race by Nancy

In its latest Weekly Rundown note (available to pro subscribers), Goldman advised clients to position themselves ahead of the election: “Buy GSP24REP if you expect a Republican sweep or Buy GSP24DEM if you expect a democratic sweep.“

Some more from Goldman: “The sensitivity of our Republican Policy Outperformers (GS24REPL) to election events since this summer implies the it could move +8% if Trump wins the presidential election%. Over the summer, investors have tactically traded around election events and have shortly unwound their trades.”

And the punchline: “Considering we are only ~1 month away from election day, we notice a shift in focus: our client near-term outlook depends on the election outcome and they are becoming more comfortable positioning themselves accordingly.”

Finally, while some have speculated that whether Trump or Kamala wins, it doesn’t really matter unless there is a sweep, the reality is that while the market was frowning on the odds of either party winning both the House and the Senate, in the past few days we have seen a surge by the Republicans, where Polymarket odds of a sweep are now the highest they have been in three months.

Finally, it’s not just Goldman: UBS writes that as recent election poll results seem to be shifting in favor of the Republican party, the bank’s Republican Win basket continued outperform the Democratic Win basket (BBG index UBPTREDE) by 2.4% on Monday, marking almost 6% over the past five sessions.”

In other words, while rigged polls do everything in their power to convince the marginal voter that Kamala is still in the lead, Wall Street traders have already taken the other side of the bet.

 

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute,

Following Hurricane Helene, many private helicopter pilots launched their own search and rescue missions. One would think government officials would welcome the help of these volunteers, but instead they harassed them and even threatened to arrest them!

For example, one private helicopter pilot rescued an individual stranded by Helene. Unfortunately, he was threatened with arrest if he flew his helicopter back into the impacted area to save someone left behind on the earlier flight.

In a video shared by comedian and political commentator Jimmy Dore, Jonathan Howard, a member of the Florida State Guard and volunteer for the nonprofit group Aerial Recovery, discussed how the government took credit for the rescue of an 11-day-old baby even though the rescue was done totally by volunteers. Mr. Howard stated that when he goes on a search and rescue mission he sees around forty other private helicopters and just two military helicopters.

One reason the federal government is unable to provide adequate aid to those impacted by Helene (and now Milton) is the government is sending military aid worth billions of dollars to Ukraine and Israel. In fact, over 700 members of the Tennessee National Guard are deploying to the Middle East as people in the state deal with damage from Hurricane Helene!

When questioned on Fox News about Helene’s impact, South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham made an impassioned plea …. for more aid to Israel. Senator Graham is far from the only member of Congress to put the needs of foreign countries and the military-industrial complex ahead of Americans.

Congress will likely consider a multi-billion-dollar disaster relief bill in the post-election “lame duck” session. Conservative Republicans will (properly) demand the spending be offset by cuts in other spending. The problem is most of these “fiscal conservatives” will vote to increase the national debt to fund the military-industrial-complex.

When I served in Congress, I voted against federal disaster aid even when the disaster impacted my district. Inevitably my office would receive complaints from outraged constituents. After a few months of jumping through the federal government’s bureaucratic hoops in seeking to recover from the disaster, many constituents would call my office to say that they now agree that they would be better off if the government would stop trying to “help” the victims of natural disasters.

One of the helicopter pilots who voluntarily flew into the areas impacted by Helene was Curves fitness chain founder Gary Heavin. Mr. Heavin, in addition to being a successful businessman, is a passionate advocate for liberty who serves on the advisory board of my Institute for Peace and Prosperity. It is not surprising that someone who believes in liberty would be willing to help those in need rather than rely on the government to provide assistance.

Contrary to the lies spread by authoritarians, libertarianism does not require selfishness. Libertarians welcome voluntary action to help those in need. Libertarians object to government assistance because it is based on force. Authoritarianism leads to poverty, war, chaos in the streets, and a lack of compassion for the less fortunate. Liberty leads to prosperity, peace, and a flourishing of private charities.

In many major cities, real home prices have declined as high interest rates are dampening demand.

Simultaneously, property markets are slowing due to tough financing conditions and rising construction costs. As a result, housing bubble risks have eased in cities like Hong Kong, London, and New York. However, strong demand in the luxury market and a booming stock market are fueling bubble risks in cities like Miami and Los Angeles.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Dorothy Neufeld, shows the cities with the highest real estate bubble risk, based on the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024.

Methodology

To analyze real estate bubble risk, UBS looked at the following factors across 25 major cities:

• Price-to-income ratio

• Price-to-rent ratio

• Change in mortgage-to-GDP ratio

• Change in construction-to-GDP ratio

• City-to-country price ratio

More specifically, bubble risk refers to the likelihood of a significant price correction due to distortions in global property markets

Miami Ranks Highest for Housing Bubble Risk

With real housing prices increasing nearly 50% since the end of 2019, Miami has the highest bubble risk across cities analyzed.

This has pushed the price-to-income ratio higher, as buyers compete for limited waterfront luxury properties. At the same time, the city’s relative affordability compared to other major U.S. metros, along with no state income tax and a favorable climate, has fueled demand.

Ranking in second is Tokyo, one of the most unaffordable cities in the world.

Ultra-loose monetary policy and economic stability has contributed to high property valuations in Tokyo. Last year, a 646 square foot apartment cost 15 times more than an average skilled worker’s salary, exceeding levels seen in London and New York.

Although Dubai hasn’t entered bubble territory, home prices surged 17% between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024—the fastest increase among the cities analyzed. Over the past year, the city saw record transaction volumes and strong population growth as buyers flocked to this global financial hub.

By contrast, a number of cities saw their bubble risk decline as real home values dropped, including London, Hong Kong, Paris, and Toronto.

To learn more about this topic from a housing affordability perspective, check out this graphic on the least affordable property markets around the world.

Authored by Matt McGregor via The Epoch Times,

Michigan Republican officials have secured a win in an election integrity lawsuit against the city of Detroit over “its deliberate failure” to hire enough Republican election inspectors.

The Republican National Committee (RNC), the Michigan GOP, and the Wayne County Republican committee chairs announced that the city had agreed to modify its election protocols to hire “at least one Republican poll worker in each location,” in a settlement of the lawsuit.

In August, the RNC and other entities sued the city, alleging that it violated a state law that requires election officials to hire an equal number of poll workers on both sides of the political aisle.

The city, the lawsuit alleges, hired seven times as many Democrats as Republicans, which the RNC said decreases public trust in elections.

According to the complaint, the Republican Party nominated 675 election inspectors; however, the city only appointed 52 of them for the primary election.

The city hired up to 250 Republicans who were not nominated by the RNC, leaving a ratio of seven Democrats to one Republican inspector, which the RNC said was “not even close to equal.”

In comparison, the city hired more than 2,300 election inspectors from the Democratic Party.

“This uneven distribution of poll workers not only breaches state law but also undermines the integrity and fairness of the electoral process,” the RNC said in an August press release. “Our lawsuit demands that Detroit appoint more Republican inspectors.”

In response to The Epoch Times’ request for comment, the City of Detroit’s corporation counsel, Conrad Mallett, said: “The modest extra steps we agreed to take were not complicated and not required by law. They were put in place as part of a continuing effort to ensure our citizens respect and have confidence in our election process and to demonstrate that our city clerk listens to all concerns.”

RNC Chairman Michael Whatley said the win will return “much-needed transparency and accountability” to the city’s election protocols.

“Thanks to the efforts of the RNC and Michigan GOP, Detroit will now change its election processes so that Republican poll workers will be allocated to all voting locations and, as nearly as possible, an equal number of Republicans will be hired this November,” Whatley said.

The RNC’s Michigan lawsuits are part of a larger legal battle for election integrity in the state.

In July, the RNC won a lawsuit to protect signature verification requirements that election officials had been instructed to disregard.

“The signatures of absentee ballot voters have to and should be verified—it’s common sense,” state Republican Party Chairman Pete Hoekstra said in a statement. “Michigan is crucial to the pathway to victory in November. We must protect and enforce all our election laws to maintain confidence in our system.”

In March, the RNC filed a lawsuit alleging that state election officials are violating federal law by not maintaining voter registration records.

“Election integrity starts with clean voter rolls, and that’s why the National Voter Registration Act requires state officials to keep their rolls accurate and up-to-date,” Hoekstra said.

Two weeks ago, when the world was still enamored with Jim Cramer’s idiotic idea that Chinese stonks can magically double in just a few weeks simply because Beijing had some soothing words to say and because when it comes to greater fools, China has more than anyone else, and when Goldman laughably upgraded Chinese stocks after the 30% runup had already taken place,we warned that the party was about to end…

Cramer: “You have to come in China stocks right now”

That’s the top.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2024

… for one simple reason: as we said in “Why China’s Rally Won’t Have Legs“, China would be unable to recreate previous reflationary episodes simply because Beijing would not be able to recreate the credit impulse explosion that rebooted the Chinese economy during previous downturns, in 2012, 2015 and 2020.

Specifically, this is what we said:

In the 2015 stimulus cycle, China’s credit impulse peaked at 13.5 trillion yuan, equivalent to over 15 percent of GDP. Given that China’s nominal economy is now twice as large, an equivalent stimulus would need the credit impulse to peak at 27 trillion yuan (Chart 2).

At its most recent peak though, China’s credit impulse did not even reach 5 trillion yuan! Meaning that to compare with the 2015 episode, the just-announced stimulus cycle would need an amplitude five times greater than the most recent peak.

This would require a major reversal of the downtrend in stimulus cycles through the past two decades. After the credit impulse peaked at a monster 25 percent of GDP in 2009, subsequent peaks have reached 15 percent, 15 percent, 10 percent, and just 3 percent. This is significant because as the peak impulse has dwindled, so has the boost to growth (Chart 3 and Chart 4).

We bring this up because earlier today China published its latest, September, credit data, and it was a mess: the broadest credit aggregate, total social financing (TSF), as well as new RMB loans remained soft, in line with market expectations. 

Here are the details:

• New RMB loans: RMB 1590bn in September (RMB loans to the real economy: RMB 1973bn) vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 1938bn.
  • Outstanding RMB loan growth: 8.1% yoy in September; down from 8.5% yoy in August.
  • New RMB loans missed market expectations and were much lower than a year ago. The outstanding RMB loan growth declined to 8.1% yoy in September (vs. 8.5% yoy in August). In addition, the composition of new loans suggested credit demand remained weak in September. After seasonal adjustment, household loans expanded mildly by 1.7% month-over-month annualized in September (vs. 2.1% in August), with accelerated short-term loans extension. Bill financing growth remained solid (31.6% month-over-month annualized in September vs. 34.4% in August), while corporate medium-to-long term loans growth moderated to 8.6% month-over-month annualized in September (vs. 10.1% in August).
• Total social financing: RMB 3760bn in September, in line with Bloomberg consensus: RMB 3575bn.
  • TSF stock growth: 8.0% yoy in September, down from 8.1% in August. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: 8.4% in September vs. 8.4% in August.
  • TSF flows were broadly unchanged from August to September, as a rise of government bond issuance was offset by a decline of corporate bond issuance. Specifically, government bond net issuance rose to RMB 1349bn vs. RMB 1174bn in August after seasonal adjustment, while corporate bond net issuance fell to RMB -41bn in September after seasonal adjustment vs. RMB 85bn in August. In year-over-year terms, TSF stock growth edged down to 8.0% from 8.1% in August. The implied sequential growth of TSF stock was unchanged at 8.4% mom sa annualized in September.
• M2: 6.8% yoy in September vs. Bloomberg consensus: 6.4% yoy, August: 6.3% yoy; more ominously, M1 growth edged down to -7.4% yoy in September, vs. -7.3% yoy in August.

According to Goldman, the September credit data indicated credit demand of private sectors remained weak: household loan growth remained low, and corporate loan growth moderated. Money supply data were mixed: M1 stock still experienced a deep contraction, but M2 growth picked up in September (as a reminder, M1 has to surpass M2 for China to even have a hope of a successful reset). The Securities Times reported that the rise of M2 growth was driven by inflows into bank deposits and margin deposits, thanks to the stock market rally in late September; of course, the subsequent drop means that M2 will promptly reverse. More importantly, the deep M1 contraction still signals likely disinflationary pressures in the coming months.

China credit impulse remains depressionary. For all its talk, Beijing will need to unleash a new credit flood for markets to take it seriously. pic.twitter.com/U0tsQrRle3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2024

Bottom line: this was a clear step in the wrong direction for China, and Beijing’s desire to reflate the economy, and reminds us of what we said one week ago, when we quoted a Goldman trader who cautioned that unless China does QE “now”, it will ned up in a much bigger hole in 12 months, as there is just one thing that matters for China: M1 vs M2 dynamics, to wit: “If the rally has legs you need to see M1 growing faster than M2 (demand for settlement balances above demand for saving balances) and you also need to see much steeper curve.”

Which brings us to this morning, because just hours after the latest dismal credit data was published, China’s Caixin reported that the first tentative step to full-blown QE, namely the imminent issuance of “6 trillion yuan from ultra-long special treasury bonds over three years as part of its efforts to buttress the slowing economy through fiscal stimulus.”

Naturally, with amounts that big, the central bank will have to backstop demand, hence QE. And, as a reminder, one week ago we also said that “if China does do QE, oil will soar, and bitcoin and gold will be orders of magnitude higher once Beijing triggers then next global reflationary tsunami.” That should explain why bitcoin surged today…

… and why it is well on its way to new all time highs again.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Convenience store chain 7-Eleven will close hundreds of stores as the company faces declining sales at its U.S. stores.

7-Eleven operates more than 13,000 stores across the United States and Canada. The company plans to shut down 444 “underperforming stores” as part of improving efficiency and managing cost, according to an Oct. 10 financial forecast presentation from the firm. The closures represent more than 3 percent of the company’s U.S. and Canadian stores. This is expected to generate approximately $30 million in operating income benefit for the retail chain this year.

7-Eleven is looking to boost capital efficiency and ensure sustained business growth in North America given the “tough consumer spending environment, particularly among lower-and middle-income earners,” it said in an Oct. 10 statement.

Challenging employment conditions, high interest rates, and inflationary pressures have led to a decline in labor incomes, according to the company.

The firm credited the robustness of the North American economy to consumption by high-income earners, noting that middle- and lower-income groups have taken a “more prudent approach” in this regard.

“In the six months ended August 31, 2024, merchandise sales at existing stores in the U.S. decreased year-on-year in U.S. dollars,” it stated, noting that traffic also declined.

7-Eleven attributed this to several factors, including a large portion of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, the reduction in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits, the growth of online retail sales, and a cyber outage incident that affected operations.

The firm specifically highlighted declining tobacco use as a contributing factor affecting traffic and sales. Tobacco use has fallen by 26 percent compared to 2019, the company stated.

Cigarettes made up 21.5 percent of total convenience store sales in 2023. Circle K and 7-Eleven are the two top convenience store chains by store count, meaning that they likely already each capture the largest shares of U.S. tobacco sales, according to Don Burke, senior vice president at Management Science Associates, a market research firm.

The market for U.S. cigarette smokers is declining after decades of warnings about health risks. Convenience stores have long dominated tobacco sales, accounting for about 70 percent of purchases.

The planned closure of 444 stores is part of several steps being taken to ensure the long-term success of 7-Eleven outlets, according to the company. Other measures include growing proprietary foods, accelerating digital sales, and growing and enhancing store networks.

The retail chain reduced its estimate for total store sales in the second half of 2024. The company predicted that it will “return to growth in 2025 and beyond.”

7-Eleven is owned by Japan-based Seven & i Holdings, which has multiple other brands under it.

7-Eleven stated that it plans on setting up “a store network of 50,000 stores in areas outside Japan and North America by the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and to extend our presence to 30 countries and regions including Japan and North America by the fiscal year ending December 31, 2030.”

Buyout Attempts

In August, Seven & i Holdings revealed that it received a buyout offer from Canada-based convenience store operator Alimentation Couche-Tard (ACT). In September, the firm announced that it rejected the offer.

According to Seven & i Holdings, Couche-Tard proposed a $14.86-per-share cash deal, which it stated “grossly” undervalued the firm. The Japanese company determined that the transaction was not in the best interests of shareholders.

Even if the Canadian store chain were to raise the proposed buyout value “very significantly,” the possibility of the deal getting through remains uncertain, Seven & i Holdings stated.

Stephen Dacus, chair of Seven & i’s board, wrote a letter to Couche-Tard, clarifying that the Japanese firm remains open to any offer that recognizes their “standalone intrinsic value.”

“However, we do not believe, for several critical reasons, that the proposal you have put forward provides a basis for us to engage in substantive discussions regarding a potential transaction,” he said.

On Oct. 9, Seven & I Holdings stated that it received a revised, nonbinding buyout proposal from Couche-Tard.

Seven & I Holdings “has maintained, and intends to continue to maintain, the confidentiality of its current discussions with ACT at this time.”

“The Company will continue to act in the best interest of its shareholders and other stakeholders of the Company,” it stated.

The Japanese firm announced recently that it plans to establish an intermediate holding company that will watch over its supermarket food business, specialty stores, and other businesses, collectively referred to as the SST Business Group. A total of 31 companies will be brought under the group.

A group of ‘performative’ pro-Palestinian protesters swarmed the front of the New York Stock Exchange in Lower Manhattan this morning, demanding an end to Israel’s war in Gaza against terror organization Hamas and denouncing war profiteering by US defense firms like Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. These protesters failed to realize that the NYSE is just one giant TV studio, and the real NYSE moved to New Jersey many years ago. 

Only to find it’s one giant TV studio and the real New York Stock Exchange moved to New Jersey 15 years ago https://t.co/fOMMJ1iNBT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2024

The activists appear to be part of the far-left ‘Jewish Voice for Peace’ group. The X account tied to JVP posted a series of tweets about the NYSE takeover:

“Hundreds of Jewish New Yorkers and friends are shutting down business as usual at the New York Stock Exchange right now to demand the US stop arming Israel,” JVP wrote on X. 

Hundreds of Jewish New Yorkers and friends are shutting down business as usual at the New York Stock Exchange right now to demand the US stop arming Israel. pic.twitter.com/mX9tNtBHud

— Jewish Voice for Peace NYC (@jvpliveNY) October 14, 2024

JVP explained, “At this very moment, the Israeli military is massacring family after family in North Gaza in a war of extermination. So hundreds of Jews and friends are shutting down the New York Stock Exchange to demand the US stop arming Israel and profiting from genocide.” 

BREAKING: At this very moment, the Israeli military is massacring family after family in North Gaza in a war of extermination. So hundreds of Jews and friends are shutting down the New York Stock Exchange to demand the US stop arming Israel and profiting from genocide. pic.twitter.com/LPb8pRPekt

— Jewish Voice for Peace (@jvplive) October 14, 2024

JVP dressed the ‘Fearless Girl’ statue in front of NYSE with one of their shirts that read: “Stop Arming Israel.” 

On Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year, the Israeli military carried out a mass extermination in North Gaza, raining down bombs on refugee camps and school shelters. They are still massacring family after family now. pic.twitter.com/CzeB7sLGol

— Jewish Voice for Peace (@jvplive) October 14, 2024

Activists chained themselves to the doors. This is all theatrics. 

Biden wants us to believe that his $18 billion slush fund this year for the Israeli government is for “Jewish safety.” As Jews, we reject this myth with every fiber of our beings. We refuse to let our traditions, histories, and identities be used to massacre Palestinians. pic.twitter.com/GLvMvXTglv

— Jewish Voice for Peace (@jvplive) October 14, 2024

And fences. 

This Indigenous Peoples Day, we pay homage to the movements that have fought against genocides Wall Street has always profited from, since its founding as a market of enslaved people kidnapped from Africa by settlers who carried out genocide against Indigenous people. pic.twitter.com/7UTfQDhmdS

— Jewish Voice for Peace (@jvplive) October 14, 2024

Next internet meme photo?

So much for NYPD and co caring about Jewish saftey. Here they are dragging anti-Zionist Jewish protesters for calling for an arms embargo. pic.twitter.com/27C9LRN6sn

— Sumaya Awad (@sumayaawad) October 14, 2024

Technically, nothing was shut down. Plus, most market trades are made by algorithms, not traders standing on the NYSE floor. 

As @jvplive shuts down the NY Stock Exchange to demand the US stop arming Israel, I thought it’d be a good time to repost this @twittlesis map of the top shareholders – BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Fidelity, etc – of major US weapons companies.

Map: https://t.co/LouNBXU0O7 pic.twitter.com/HdEoJKMYZi

— Derek Seidman (@derekseidman80) October 14, 2024

Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs labeled JVP as a “Jewish far-left, anti-Zionist” group that is known for “direct action,” some of which have been conducted on school campuses.