Month: October 2024

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Old Joke: what do you call a hundred thousand lawyers at the bottom of the sea?

Answer: A good start.

You think the bankers are up to no good? No band of scoundrels has brought more chaos and grief to the life of this republic than the claque that gathers darkly under the banner of “Lawfare.” Its public face is Lawfaremedia.org, run by Benjamin Wittes a Brookings senior fellow, but that gang functions only to lend a false-front of decorum to the operations of its Democratic Party activist lawyer-army led by Field Marshal Marc Elias, architect of the ballot fraud that has caused Americans to lose faith in their elections.

Marc Elias was the original expeditor of the RussiaGate hoax in 2016 from his perch at Perkins Coie, then Hillary Clinton’s campaign law firm, which laundered payments to Christopher Steele, front-man for Glenn Simpson’s Fusion GPS political PR shop, which concocted the fraudulent “dossier,” and set in motion a train of DC intel blob legal shenanigans aimed at defenestrating Donald Trump from the White House — the Mueller Investigation, impeachment, etc.

While all that was going on through the Trump term, and with the Covid-19 Op providing cover, Mr. Elias engineered the 2020 changes in many states’ election laws and bylaws to permit large-scale mail-in voting, organized ballot-harvesting activities, and the use of drop-boxes for receiving bundled votes. He and his George Soros-financed staff lawyers sued states that attempted to require voter-identification, and provided legal protection for Mark Zuckerberg’s $419-million-dollar assault on election precinct staffing in swing states. When the 2020 election concluded suspiciously, Mr. Elias and his gang joined lawsuits in every case where the balloting was contested and got more than sixty of them dismissed on the basis of “standing,” without the merits of the cases being heard. This is Lawfare.

This time around, 2024, Mr. Elias has done everything possible to ensure that millions of illegal aliens stuffed into swing states will have their putative identities attached to harvested mail-in ballots from addresses such as Walmart parking lots and storage units, and has filed lawsuits wherever a state threatens to require proof of citizenship for voting. He has also filed sixty peremptory lawsuits to obstruct attempts to audit any election count after November 5 — as if it is an affront to democracy to even ask questions about official misconduct.

A parallel Lawfare scam underway is the Democratic Party-sponsored 65 Project that seeks to disbar Trump-adjacent lawyers who attempt to challenge any voting irregularities in this year’s election. It’s mission statement reads:

The 65 Project is a bipartisan effort to protect democracy from these once-and-future abuses by holding accountable Big Lie Lawyers who bring fraudulent and malicious lawsuits to overturn legitimate election results, and by working with bar associations to deter future abuses by establishing clear standards for conduct that punish lies about the conduct or results of elections.

Notice the term “Big Lie” to foreclose any inquiry at all into election fraud. That half the people in this country accept such an Orwellian con tells you the vital role played by the perversion of language in the Democratic Party’s war against the citizens of this land. Exactly who is to say, in advance of the event, that any objection to a vote count is fraudulent and malicious? Answer: the people who have maliciously committed fraud. The Democrats have been grooming the public for years with that phrase, the Big Lie, in exactly the same way that pedos groom innocent pubescents who accept the authority of any grown-up, no matter what debauchery they are subjected to.

It’s a tragic turn of fate for our country that the law, and language with it, have been turned into weapons for national suicide. The net result is a nation that can’t think straight anymore and cannot construct any coherent set of rules to live by. So we find ourselves in a society where stealing is no longer a crime, where border-jumping has been downgraded to a clerical error (“undocumented”), where little children are allowed to decide whether they are male or female, where speech that disagrees with the authorities agenda is “misinformation” subject to censorship and prosecution, where candidates for the highest office get selected “democratically” without any votes cast, and where you can be run-over and ruined financially in court by the bottomless legal resources of the Deep State for just speaking your mind.

Now I will tell you something that deeply troubles me and might trouble you. Forgive me if I throw the Overton Window wide open here.

Readers may know that I am an American Jew. We have entered a new era of antisemitism. Many might say it is due to the conduct of Israel warring against its enemies. I would say it is as much due to the adoption of Jihad politics by the Marxist-Woke campaign as an instrument to promote political and social chaos in America.

Lawfare is essentially jihad waged via the courts against our own disintegrating common culture and national interests.

The lineup of the leading Lawfare attorneys are Jews: Marc Elias, Norm Eisen, Benjamin Wittes, Andrew Weissmann, Michael Bromwich, Michael Sussmann, Lawrence Tribe, Daniel Goldman, Paul Rosenzweig, the exceptionally profligate serial liar Rep. Adam Schiff, and many others. I can’t say I understand exactly what motivates them to engage these antics. (Possibly to defend their Deep State clients against many previous crimes committed since 2016, especially within the FBI and DOJ.) But it’s a really bad look on top of being a nefarious agenda.

They are disgracing the rest of us American Jews and putting us in danger. Shame on them.

They must be defeated, and their defeat must come within the arena of the very law they work so hard to pervert.

Equity markets continued their melt up amid a quiet session with cash bond markets closed for Columbus Day.

Rumors from China that authorities will issues 6 trillion yuan in bonds to support stimulus plans prompted talk of the inevitability of a China QE to maintain bond yields… and that QE talk sent stocks and crypto soaring.

However, as Goldman points out, 6 trillion is a decent number and a good start but nowhere near what they did in the past, to put it into context China did roughly 20 trillion over 2 years in response to the GFC.

S&P and Nasdaq were the outperformers. The Dow lagged but all the majors were up solidly on the day…

…with the Mag7 basket surging back near record highs as NVDA was lifted on more optimistic chatter from Huang…

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA hit a record closing high today…

…is closing in on AAPL’s market cap lead…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were squeezed higher again. The question is – will it stall at resistance once again?

Source: Bloomberg

…as the vol term structure steepens into early November risk catalysts…

Source: Bloomberg

According to Goldman Sachs trading desk, overall activity levels are down -17% vs. the trailing 2 weeks in line with market volumes down -16% vs the 10dma

• Our floor tilts -1% better for sale with HFs better to buy and LOs better for sale

• HFs are +8% better to buy, continuing on from the largest net buying in stocks since Dec ’21 last week.  Demand is concentrated in Tech, HCare and Comms Svcs with supply coming from Energy, Staples & Cons Disc.

• LOs are -15% better for sale and look to be running in the opposite direction from HFs – buying Industrials, Energy & Utes while selling Tech, HCare, Comm Svcs & Cons Disc

While cash bond markets are closed for Columbus Day, bond futures are nevertheless open and point to lower prices/higher yields (10Y around 1-2bps higher on the day)…

Source: Bloomberg

…as does the SOFR market…

Source: Bloomberg

The small hawkish shift in STIRs was also helped by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller who warned that recent economic data signals policymakers can approach subsequent interest-rate reductions with less urgency than they applied at their gathering last month.

“I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting,” Waller said in prepared remarks on Monday at a conference at the Hoover Institution in Stanford, California.

“We can proceed with moving policy toward a neutral stance at a deliberate pace.”

Bitcoin soared higher on the China QE hopes, topping $66k (its highest since late-Sept) today…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its charge higher to two-month highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength, gold held on to recent gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices limped lower as China’s stimmy package underwhelmed…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg reports, investors are hedging more during this record run for stocks that they did in the first half of the year, boosting options volatility and put skew well above realized levels. There’s plenty of reasons for caution — the US election, the uncertain pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts (with a meeting in early November), Middle East tensions to name a few. It’s not unusual for volatility to elevate at this time of year.

Source: Bloomberg

The historical pattern during election years is for the VIX index to keep edging higher until late October before falling through the end of the year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

First it was Amazon, then Microsoft, now Google telegraphs why the “next AI trade” will generate obnoxious amounts of alpha in the coming years by sending the same message: i) it’s all about how all those data centers will be powered, and ii) in the future a growing number of data centers will be powered by small modular nuclear reactors.

On Monday, Google – picking up on what we discussed last week in “Google Turns To Nuclear To Power Its Data Centers” – announced plans to buy power from Kairos Power’s small modular reactors (SMRs) as part of a growing industry shift toward nuclear energy to meet rising data center demands. By purchasing energy from multiple SMRs, Google aims to send a strong market signal while supporting long-term commercialization.

According to CNBC, senior director for energy and climate at Google, Michael Terrell, said on a call with reporters that “we believe that nuclear energy has a critical role to play in supporting our clean growth and helping to deliver on the progress of AI.”

“The grid needs these kinds of clean, reliable sources of energy that can support the build out of these technologies. … We feel like nuclear can play an important role in helping to meet our demand, and helping meet our demand cleanly, in a way that’s more around the clock.”

Only three SMRs are operational worldwide currently, none in the U.S…. but that’s going to change.

SMRs offer a cheaper, faster alternative to traditional reactors. Kairos Power, backed by the Department of Energy, is building a demonstration reactor in Tennessee. Google expects the first reactor online by 2030, adding 500 megawatts by 2035.

“It is an incredibly promising bet, and one that, you know, if we can get these projects to scale and then scale globally, will deliver enormous benefits to communities and power grids around the world,” Terrell said of backing nuclear power companies. 

The news came just hours after we pointed out the short interest in one of our favorite SMR names, Sam Altman-backed Oklo, on the rise. Oklo has targeted its first SMRs to be online by 2027, three years ahead of Kairos’ proposed timeline.  

OKLO shorts decided to double down and push short interest to new all time high https://t.co/NkPjAtCrVj pic.twitter.com/1uJpbhfHjI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2024

Today’s news should not come as a surprise: less than a week ago we quoted Amanda Peterson Corio, global head of data center energy at Google, who said that “in the US, in highly regulated markets where we don’t have the opportunity to directly purchase power, we are working with our utility partners and the generators to come together to figure out how we can bring these new technologies — nuclear may be one of them — to the grid.”

Separately, we ALSO wrote at the beginning of this month that the U.S. had closed on a $1.5 billion loan to resurrect Holtec’s Palisades Nuclear Plant. The report at the time said that the Biden administration aims to triple U.S. nuclear power capacity as demand rises and climate concerns grow.

Meanwhile, we recently wrote that Oklo announced it had finalized an agreement with the Department of Energy to advance the next phase of sitting at the Idaho National Lab. 

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has also been urging for Three Mile Island to reopen as quickly as possible. Following Microsoft’s agreement to purchase power from the dormant nuclear plant, Shapiro urged regulators to prioritize the reactor’s connection to the electrical grid, according to Barron’s.

The latest news out of Google provides substantial tail wind for our “Next AI Trade” which we laid out in April as our favorite long-term trade, and where we outlined various investment opportunities for powering up America, playing out.

The stellar returns of the trade in 2024 so far are just the start: as more capital is allocated to “those who provide the electricity to those who sell the picks and shovels for the next gold rush”, the basket will blow away every other segment of the market, and the biggest winners will be not those who bet on the revolutionary technology that is AI, but those who backed something much more primitive: the electricity needed to power it.

Authored by Macy Gunnell via Campus Reform,

A bill currently being considered in the Illinois legislature would grant public colleges and universities thousands of taxpayer dollars for every student they admit who belongs to certain minority groups.

Democratic Illinois Senate Majority Leader Kimberly Lightford introduced the legislation, S.B. 3965, on July 30. State Representative Carol Ammons, also a Democrat, introduced the bill in the House.

The bill would grant public institutions of higher education $6,000 per each black or American Indian student they accept, $4,000 per Hispanic student, and $0 for white and Asian students, according to a Washington Examiner op-ed by Mike Gonzalez, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

Gonzalez pointed out that the quantity provided per Hispanic student is lower than that given for black students, even though Hispanic Illinoisans’ degree attainment rate is lower.

Ammons told Campus Reform that “[t]he under-representation of Black students in our public colleges and universities are the result of an old system – our proposal changes that. The allocation formula we seek acknowledges a number of factors that may impact a student’s journey to and through higher education, and seeks to support them accordingly.”

Asked why the bill would not pay colleges and universities anything for Asian students, Ammons told Campus Reform that “[t]he research did not show a gap in attainment for Asian students. Our proposal looks at gaps in enrollment, retention, and graduation to identify the necessary adjustments.”

Ammons did not directly address why Hispanic students would generate less money for schools than black students despite their lower degree attainment rates, saying:

“[W]e will not engage with any rhetoric that pits one minority population against another. The data is clear: Black and Hispanic students are under-represented in public higher education. Our funding formula, which finally allocates to the needs of students, will ensure that historically disenfranchised groups are supported. . . . the adjustments within the formula are data-driven.”

“Despite education’s paramount importance, the disparity in funding among higher educational institutions remains dreadfully evident,” Lightford said about her initiative.

“This imbalance not only undermines the principle of equal opportunity but also hampers our collective progress as a society.”

Lightford referred to race-based funding as “equitable”, stating:

“It is time for us to prioritize equitable funding for higher education institutions and ensure that every student has the opportunity to fulfil [sic] their potential.”

Lightford and Ammons serve as co-chairs on the Commission on Equitable Public University Funding. The commission was created to recommend “specific data-driven criteria and approaches to the General Assembly to adequately, equitably, and stably fund public universities in this State and to evaluate existing funding methods.”

S.B. 3965 and its companion legislation in the House will adopt recommendations made by the commission, according to Gonzalez, who said he was informed of this by Ammons’s chief of staff.

This 87-page report claims that higher education in Illinois has “racial injustices embedded in the postsecondary system” and that the state has a “moral obligation and economic interest to dismantle and reform structures that create or exacerbate racial and socioeconomic inequities in higher education.”

The report also alleges that, if its new funding framework is adopted, then “public universities in Illinois will be gaining additional resources needed to help them attract, retain, and graduate more traditionally underrepresented students.”

The funding plan would also require roughly $1.4 billion to “fully meet student needs in an adequate and equitable manner.” In Fiscal Year 2024, “the State provided more than $2.5 billion to higher education overall,” the report states.

Campus Reform has reached out to Sen. Lightford for comment. This article will be updated accordingly.

Surprise!!!

After years of attacking cryptocurrencies as vehicles for drug-trafficking and terrorist-financing (despite that being a lie) that need to be regulated (and taxed) into the ground, the progressive pollyannas behind Kamala Harris have decided the time is right to play the race-card to support crypto.

Support for Kamala is so bad among men (and especially black men) that the campaign has trotted out pathetic ‘real men vote for Harris-Walz’ ads and unleashed Obama to blast his brothers for not following the narrative.

And today, they doubled-down, on indigenous people’s day of course, Harris said she plans to support a cryptocurrency regulatory framework that gives protections to Black men who invest and own crypto as part of a newly released proposal to help build wealth for Black men.

As Sarah Wynn reports via The Block, less than a month out before the presidential election, Harris released a proposal called the “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men“ on Monday. 

Over 20% of Black Americans own or have in the past owned crypto, according to the Harris teams’ plan. 

“Vice President Harris appreciates the ways in which new technologies can broaden access to banking and financial services,” the campaign team said in the plan.

“She will make sure owners of and investors in digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework so that Black men and others who participate in this market are protected.”

As part of the plan, the Democratic presidential candidate also said she would provide one million loans that are fully forgivable up to $20,000 to Black entrepreneurs looking to start a business, launch a health initiative focused on Black men and legalize recreational marijuana.

This isn’t Harris’ first comment on crypto.

Last month, Harris said her administration would encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting consumers and investors, according to her 80-page economic plan.

blackcoin? https://t.co/179Ojsd216

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2024

We have one quick question – how will all those ‘black folk’ be able to adopt crypto when they “don’t even know what the word computer is”…

While being interviewed by a Black journalist, who should’ve checked her on that ignorant comment, the governor of NY states young Black kids don’t know what the word computer is?

Talk about bigotry of low expectations. SMH

Time stamp: 0:34 pic.twitter.com/TacxPpNkaO

— Shermichael Singleton (@MrShermichael) May 7, 2024

Are young black men about to used as the ‘dumb money’ “exit liquidity” buyers for her billionaire silicon valley donors?

Meanwhile, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made his own pledge to end an “unlawful and un-American crackdown” on the U.S. crypto industry and has backed a crypto project called World Liberty Financial.

Nat’l Policy Network WOC Blockchain Founder Cleve Mesidor said she has been fighting for inclusion in crypto and criticized Harris’ approach.

“It is perplexing that the Harris-Walz policy team opted not to meet with diverse leaders in crypto, but instead is rolling out a policy that narrowly frames crypto around Black men only and proposes a regulatory framework limiting Black men to consumers instead of producers,” Mesidor said in a statement to The Block.

Harris flip-flop to support crypto comes after former president Trump (also flip-flopping from his 2019 stance) announced his policies would give Bitcoiners a friendly regulatory environment to build in and stop anti-Bitcoin politicians from continuing to attack this industry.

As BitcoinMagazine’s Nikolaus Hoffman concludes, it makes sense for the Republican party to adopt freedom money, given they lean more towards the principles of freedom now, while the Democrats have become more authoritarian.. and from what we can see, Democrats’ supportive crypto policies are just another divisive messaging ploy, rather than policies aimed at promoting the sovereignty of self.

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

Something big is coming, and whatever it is, there’s now a heightened chance that the US will become directly involved.

The Pentagon confirmed that it’ll dispatch nearly 100 troops to Israel to operate one of its premier air defense systems, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), of which it only has seven in total. This comes ahead of Israel’s expected retaliation to Iran’s latest missile strike on the first of the month that it carried out to restore deterrence after the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. Here’s what this latest US move signifies:

1. Israel Is Probably Planning Something Big

Rumors have abounded about what exactly Israel is planning, but it’s probably something big and will provoke at least proportional retaliation from Iran, hence why the self-professed Jewish State requested that the US deploy one of its few THAADs to help defend it afterwards. THAAD specializes in intercepting ballistic missiles so it can be intuited that Israel and the US expect Iran to respond through these means. THAAD only carries 48 interceptors, however, so it could be overwhelmed if there’s a saturation strike.  

2. The Iron Dome Needs All The Help It Can Get

Many observers assessed that Iran’s latest missile strike exposed the limits of Israel’s famous Iron Dome. The footage that they saw and Israel’s panicked reaction afterwards in trying to cover up the damage, including by detaining Grayzone journalist Jeremy Loffredo and then investigating him for “aiding the enemy in a time of war” by reporting on it, leave little doubt that this is the case. Accordingly, the Iron Dome needs all the help it can get, hence why Israel requested that the US deploy THAAD to assist.

3. The US Risks Getting Caught In Mission Creep

Biden previously promised that “No US boots will be on the ground” in the West Asian conflict zone, yet he just went back on his word after his administration approved this latest deployment. The US thus risks getting caught in mission creep since hawkish policymakers might now argue that it’s worth scaling this deployment in pursuit of perceived national interests after this psychological line was just crossed. They might not succeed, and this could be all that’s sent, but more deployments also can’t be ruled out either.

4. The THAAD Team Is An Escalation Tripwire

Building upon the above, the THAAD team is an escalation tripwire since any harm that might befall them while attempting to intercept Iran’s expected retaliation to Israel’s presumably forthcoming attack could serve as the pretext for the US to strike Iran and/or deploy more troops to the conflict zone. While this move is being sold to the public as “defending Israel” and “deterring Iran”, policymakers nonetheless keenly understand what’s really at stake, yet they’re downplaying the dangers to avoid public outcry.

5. Israel-US Ties Remain Strong Despite Problems

And finally, the US’ THAAD deployment shows that inter-state ties remain strong despite the well-known Bibi-Biden rivalry, which saw Biden endorse Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s call for regime change against Bibi last spring. Whether one attributes this to the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) still appreciating their perceived mutual geostrategic interests or to the power of the Israel lobby, the point is that it testifies to the resilience of their ties.

The US’ THAAD deployment to Israel is a worrying step because it suggests that that something big is coming, and whatever it is, there’s now a heightened chance that the US will become directly involved. Whether its role remains defensive or evolves into an offensive one remains to be seen, but this team of nearly 100 operators essentially serves as an escalation tripwire. Hawkish policymakers want a larger war, and it’ll take self-restraint on Iran’s side and a little bit of luck to avoid that worst-case scenario.

Kamala Harris’ plagiarism apparently goes far beyond Trump and Biden‘s economic plans.

In a Monday thread on X by investigative journalist Christopher Rufo, we learn that famed Austrian “plagiarism hunter” Dr. Stefan Weber found that “Kamala Harris plagiarized at least a dozen sections of her criminal-justice book, Smart on Crime,” and “even lifted material from Wikipedia.“

We can begin with a passage in which Harris discusses high school graduation rates. Here, she lifted verbatim language from an uncited AP/NBC News report: pic.twitter.com/pZv5mD3m5t

— Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️ (@realchrisrufo) October 14, 2024

Continued from X;

In another section of the book, Harris, without proper attribution, reproduced extensive sections from a John Jay College of Criminal Justice press release. She and her co-author passed off the language as their own, copying multiple paragraphs virtually verbatim. Here is the excerpt, with abbreviations, such as percentages and state names, treated as verbatim substitutions:

In a section about a New York court program, Harris stole long passages directly from Wikipedia—long considered an unreliable source. She not only assumes the online encyclopedia’s accuracy, but copies its language nearly verbatim, without citing the source. Here is Harris’s language, based on the page as it appeared in December 2008, before she published the book:

Harris also copied language from a Bureau of Justice Assistance report report, which was linked in the the Wikipedia entry. Here is the passage in Harris’s book, with duplicated material in the other column:

Finally, when attempting to write a description of a nonprofit group, Harris simply lifted promotional language from an Urban Institute report, and failed to cite her source:

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Pressing the point

We just sat through a set of Chinese press conferences from the PBOC, the Ministry of Finance (on a Saturday, mind you!), then other departments, each of which had been sold in as ‘The Big One’ that would unleash the fiscal bazooka on markets so stocks and commodities –and global supply-side inflation– soar. Well, four stops into this sequence what we are being shown is still more peashooter. Today, it was again about trading in old appliances for new. Over the weekend, it was about offering new ways to mop up around 0.2% of the supply of unwanted and unfinished homes, and perhaps 1% of the underlying capital issues at Chinese banks. (This is all very back of an envelope: but then again, so are the press conferences, it seems.

China credit impulse remains depressionary. For all its talk, Beijing will need to unleash a new credit flood for markets to take it seriously. pic.twitter.com/U0tsQrRle3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2024

Markets are still clinging to the belief that, in the end, China *has* to go large on fiscal stimulus for consumers -which the weak inflation data out over the weekend will have encouraged them in doing- despite Beijing’s clear ideological aversion to the idea of welfarism or consumerism. Indeed, the same people aren’t reading the recent headlines about China taking away passports from schoolteachers and other civil servants (“Bullish! More money to spend at home!”) and cracking down on anyone reading books with the wrong ideology or ideas. (“Just like being at a Western university.”)

Markets might also notice that today China launched Operation Joint Sword B around the air and waters of Taiwan. Joint Sword A had declared: “The drills focus on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control.” Joint Sword B says it is for “joint sea-air combat readiness patrol, the blockade and control of key ports and areas, and strikes on sea and land targets.”

Meanwhile, the market is sighing that the end of Yom Kippur didn’t see the immediate launch of an Israeli counterstrike against Iran. Yet war rumbles on between Israel and Hamas; and Hezbollah, who just landed a suicide drone on an Israeli army base, a threat Ukraine had previously offered help with yet were snubbed due to fears this might anger President Putin – I doubt that taboo now holds; and the Houthis; and Iran-backed militias in Iraq; and with the US dispatching a THAAD missile defense system to Israel to supplement its defence systems, the odds are it’s when, not if, Israel hits Iran hard. What happens next is anyone’s guess.

The key point is not necessarily the direct risk of Israel hitting Iranian oil in a way that pushes prices up globally: i) it can blow up their refineries to force them to import oil, smashing their economy instead; and (ii) there are still Chinese and US petroleum reserves for these kinds of occasions. No, the key is rather to note that Iran has made it clear via various proxies that anyone helping Israel in any way (i.e., via their airspace) risks their oil being attacked by it. As I already pointed out, not only is this the fattest of tail risks for everyone globally, but it makes an absolute mockery of the BRICS+ ‘friendship’ between Iran and Saudi/the UAE that the usual crowd who don’t know the region have been salivating over for months.

Elsewhere, North Korea is doing provocative things near the border with South Korea, but will have to try much, much harder to get anyone’s attention. Perhaps by sending troops to fight for Russia, as some are alleging as well? Quick, let’s sanction North Korea! Oh…

Russia raised its wheat export tax; and Jayati Ghosh of the University of Massachusetts released a G-20 paper on ‘Possible Strategies for Enhancing Food Security’ which backs having the food equivalent of strategic petroleum reserves -which China already does- and reducing capital market speculation in agri commodities – which China already does. This is big picture stuff but suffice to say it’s about as neoliberal as me, which is appropriate given recent years have shown, as was always the case historically, that food can be weaponised geopolitically. (and so can almost everything: paging those who still don’t see this!)

Meanwhile, Poland is fighting… Brussels, which wants to fine it for having an excessively large fiscal deficit driven by spending 5% of GDP on defence, when most of the EU thinks 0.5% is a realistic figure for the realistic part of the army (rather than the share spent on uniforms, pencils, pensions, and off-sites.) It’s good to see the EU has its target priorities right in these mad times. I love the smell the strategic autonomy in the morning: smells like victory – for someone anyway. I mean, where would we be if France was running a vast fiscal deficit without any Poland-style extra military spending?

In the US, the market is starting to wake up to what those parsing the data were seeing for some time: that, just perhaps, not only is Trump on the path to winning, but he may take the House and Senate too. Of course, anything can change between now and 5 November. But that certainly includes markets who thought reading 528.com or quoting Nate Silver tweets counted as doing a deep dive into a subject of staggering importance to all asset classes.

On which note, Trump is still offering out tax breaks like Oprah: no tax on tips; or social security; or overtime; and auto loans would also be tax deductible. Moreover, he’s just spoken of tariffs of up to 1,000% -clearly rhetoric, not real policy- and his desire to keep the US dollar as the global reserve currency, and big and strong, which runs the other way from high tariffs unless Trump is going full mercantilist – which would shatter the global system as constituted.

We also had Elon Musk perform marvels with SpaceX rockets and launch the version of household robots which Hollywood -and Karol Čapek- envisioned: how does he find the time with all those tweets? What could that all mean for markets? What does it mean for wars? What does it mean for mankind?! But, hey, why focus on things like that when we are living in such peaceful, uneventful times: isn’t there a rate cut somewhere we can focus on instead?!

And the answer is, yes, there will be another 25bps cut from the ECB this week. China, Iran, Russia, North Korea, and the US are sweating at the geopolitical implications of it.

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Decentralized prediction markets could offer more accurate predictions for the US elections than traditional polling systems, according to Elon Musk…

Prediction markets saw significant growth in the third quarter of 2024, driven by bets on the upcoming United States presidential election, which could have wide-reaching effects on cryptocurrency regulations.

The betting volume on prediction markets rose over 565.4% in Q3 to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter of 2024.

The significant growth in prediction market volume was mainly attributed to increasing bets on the outcome of the US elections, according to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report, which stated:

“Prediction markets picked up steam in 2024 Q3, growing 565.4% due to pundits betting on the upcoming US elections.”

Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko

Decentralized prediction markets could be more accurate in predicting the results of the 2024 US election than traditional polling, according to billionaire Elon Musk.

Prediction markets like Polymarket enable users to stake stablecoins like USD Coin USDC$1.00 on the outcome of a specific event.

Polymarket accounts for 99% of market share

Polymarket, the largest decentralized platform, dominated the market with over 99% market share as of September 2024.

Over 46% of Polymarket’s year-to-date (YTD) volume was driven by the US presidential elections poll, according to CoinGecko’s report, which added:

“Some $1.7 billion of bets have been placed on the “US Presidential Election Winner” since the start of 2024, accounting for ~46% of Polymarket’s yearly volume.”

Polymarket TVL, year-to-date. Source: DefiLlama

Betting volume on Polymarket grew 713%, while transactions increased by 848% during the third quarter of 2024.

At the time of publication, Polymarket holds over $172 million in total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama data.

Former President Trump leads Harris on Polymarket

Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris by eight points on Polymarket.

According to Polymarket data, former President Trump has a 53.8% chance of winning the election, while only 45.3% of Polymarket users have bet on Harris.

The odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.

US Elections, Trump, and Macro: Impact on Crypto. Source: YouTube

On Sunday we detailed a rare Hezbollah strike on a key Israeli base which resulted in a mass casualty event. A drone swarm was sent on the Golani Brigade training base deep inside Israel at a moment that hundreds of IDF soldiers were in or near a mess hall that suffered direct impact by at least one or more sizeable drones.

The Golani Brigade training base lies about 20 miles south of Haifa. After a huge emergency response to the base as a result of the attack, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has confirmed that four soldiers were killed, and 58 were injured. Other reports say that over 60 were injured, some seriously.

It marks the single largest and deadliest Hezbollah attack of the entire conflict which started more than a year ago. In the immediate aftermath there were widespread rumors that IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi had been present and was wounded or killed, but Israeli sources quickly dismissed this as a false rumor.

Hezbollah took responsibility for the drone attack, saying it was in retaliation for major Israeli strikes which took place late last week. The IDF has been pounding Beirut, including in central locations in the capital.

Israeli media has since identified the four deceased, and highlighted ongoing controversy over the apparent failure of emergency warning sirens as well as air defensive measures:

The Israel Defense Forces announced the names of the four soldiers killed in a Hezbollah drone attack on a Golani training base near Binyamina in north-central Israel on Sunday night, while questions abounded as to why sirens failed to sound ahead of the strike.

The fallen soldiers were named as:

• Sgt. Omri Tamari, 19, from Mazkeret Batya.
• Sgt. Yosef Hieb, 19, from Tuba Zangariya.
• Sgt. Yoav Agmon, 19, from Binyamina-Giv’at Ada.
• Sgt. Alon Amitay, 19, from Ramot Naftali.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited the base on Monday, telling service members and the nation, “This is a difficult event with painful results.”

“We must investigate it, study the details and assimilate the lessons in a quick and professional manner,” he added. There were reports that one or more of the drones were intercepted, but clearly some made it through Israel’s celebrated anti-air defense systems, resulting in horrific scenes of blood-stained floors all over the dining hall.

“Faced with the threat of UAVs, we are concentrating a national effort and are engaged in developing solutions that will help deal with the threat,” Gallant declared. The norther port city of Haifa has seen hundreds of Hezbollah drones and missiles sent against it in the past days and week. This has continued into Monday.

The major attack led to Gallant providing a Sunday night briefing and update on the matter to his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. The Israeli defense chief “highlighted the severity of the attack and the forceful response that would be taken against Hezbollah.”

Gallant had also thanked Austin for deciding to send a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery (THAAD) to Israel “in the coming days.” The NY Times and others have confirmed that American troops will be manning and operating the battery. The program could see some 100 US troops placed in harm’s way amid threats that Iran could send more ballistic missiles on Israel.

The Israeli Air Force has announced ongoing operations against Hezbollah in the south, saying it has struck 200 targets in the last 24 hours, and that dozens of Hezbollah militants have been killed.

Among the dead is Muhammad Kamel Naim, described as the head of the anti-tank missile unit of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force, according to the IDF.

Israeli reports have said an Iranian-made kamikaze drone was used in Hezbollah’s Sunday night attack on the Israeli base south of Haifa. Some sources speculate it was a Mirsad-1, while others allege it was a Shahed, the drone series which has been used by Russia in Ukraine.

Yedioth Ahronoth: Preliminary Investigation Reveals Hezbollah Drone that Struck Golani Base Was a “Shahed 107.”

Fighter Jets and a Helicopter Were Pursuing the Hezbollah Drone Before It Suddenly Disappeared from Radars and Exploded Inside the Base. pic.twitter.com/HSeKtzCTei

— IntelSky (@Intel_Sky) October 13, 2024

Israel has also for the first time struck the north Lebanon region of Aitou, a Christian-majority area. This marks the northernmost attack in Lebanon by Israel since the start of hostilities in the wake of Oct.7, 2023. Israel says it was targeting a senior Hezbollah leader. Al Mayadeen says there were a number of people killed and wounded in the attack. Sky News has reported 18 Lebanese killed in the attack, without specifying who was a civilian or militant.