Month: October 2024

Authored by Nick Braynt via nickbryantnyc.com,

Andre Damian Williams Jr., U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, once again has the distinction of covering up child sex trafficking. He received that distinction for overseeing a federal grand jury that didn’t indict Sean “Diddy” Combs on a single count of child sex trafficking and/or molestation. 

Before I address Williams’ new offenses against children, I should offer a reminder about his prior offenses. Williams was appointed the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York in December of 2018, and he became the point-man for the Epstein cover-up. He was slated to oversee the trial of Jeffrey Epstein, but Epstein became preoccupied with his death. Williams, however, oversaw the Ghislaine Maxwell trial, which was a travesty of justice even before it commenced: Federal prosecutors only indicted Maxwell on one-count of child trafficking, even though her and Epstein had trafficked children for approximately 25 years. Moreover, the federal prosecutors were aware of over 30 child Epstein trafficking victims, but they only called four victims as witnesses, and those victims had been exclusively molested by Epstein and Maxwell. The federal prosecutors were aware of various Epstein procurers (pimps) and numerous perpetrators. But the prosecutors’ flagrant objective was a cover up of the procurers (pimps) and perpetrators in the Epstein network. One-count of child trafficking carries a 15-year to life sentence, and Maxwell was sentenced to 20 years. 

In the wake of Maxwell’s trial, Williams said the following with a straight face: “Today’s sentence holds Ghislaine Maxwell accountable for perpetrating heinous crimes against children. This sentence sends a strong message that no one is above the law and it is never too late for justice. We again express our gratitude to Epstein and Maxwell’s victims for their courage in coming forward, in testifying at trial, and in sharing their stories as part of today’s sentencing.” His statements were rather ironic, because he just facilitated the cover-up of the largest child trafficking network ever acknowledged by US law enforcement. The cover-up of a crime is aiding and abetting that crime, so Williams is guilty of aiding and abetting child trafficking.

Williams’ offenses against children were again on display as he oversaw the Combs’ grand jury that returned the following indictments against Combs.

• One count of racketeering conspiracy 
• One count of sex trafficking by force, fraud, or coercion
• One count of transportation for purposes of prostitution

Two of the sexual assault lawsuits that are pending against Combs were filed by minors. One of those lawsuits was filed by Liza Gardner who alleges that Combs raped her when she was 16 years old. A second lawsuit, filed by “Jane Doe,” alleges that minions of Combs flew her from Detroit to New York City when she was 17 years old, where Combs plied her with alcohol and took turns raping her with two other men. The latter is a blatant case of the interstate sex trafficking of a minor, but it seems to have been overlooked by Williams and his cadre in the Southern District. Either Williams thought she was lying or he’s covering up Combs’ child trafficking. 

Combs is charged with one count of “racketeering conspiracy” but, thus far, his co-conspirators haven’t been indicted. Ghislaine Maxwell, too, was indicted on multiple conspiracies:

• One count conspiracy to entice minors to travel to engage in illegal sex acts
• One count of conspiracy to transport minors to participate in illegal sex acts 
• One count of sex trafficking conspiracy

Though Maxwell was indicted on multiple conspiracies, Williams’ office didn’t indict one of her co-conspirators. Combs has also been indicted on conspiracy, but his co-conspirators have not been indicted. Is the Combs’ case history repeating itself?

According to a BBC article, “Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs faces more than 100 new assault allegations,” a Texas-based attorney, Tony Buzbee, is representing “more than 100” alleged victims of Combs. And he maintains that 25 of the alleged victims he is representing were minors when they were molested by Combs et al, including an alleged victim who was nine years old at the time. Like Epstein, Buzbee believes that Combs had connections to Mount Olympus. “The names will shock you,” he said at a press conference. Combs engaged in the trafficking of adults and minors for years. Also like Epstein, how could Combs pull off such heinous crimes for years without a little help from his friends in state and/or federal law enforcement?

Combs is now on suicide watch. The federal corrections officers at Manhattan’s Metropolitan Correctional Center excelled at ensuring Epstein’s death either by gross negligence or outright malfeasance. Combs is incarcerated at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. So perhaps Combs jailers in Brooklyn will prove to be more competent than Epstein’s jailers in Manhattan?

Epstein and Maxwell had a penchant for hidden cameras and blackmail, and they molested children for 25 years. Combs also had a penchant for hidden cameras and a penchant for blackmail. Lil Rod’s sexual assault lawsuit filed against Combs was our first inkling of P. Diddy’s hidden cameras and blackmail.

But, since then, numerous sources have stated that Combs homes had clandestine cameras. The New York Post reported the following: “One of the Department of Homeland Security agents who helped raid Diddy’s Florida abode claimed that the music mogul had rooms that were clearly ‘dedicated to sex’ with cameras all around. ‘So if you were in those sex parties, you were being recorded from every possible angle, including angles you wouldn’t have known about,’ the source said, referring to the sometimes days-long orgies he called “freak offs” where drugged-up victims were allegedly forced to have sex with male prostitutes.”

A former bodyguard for Combs, Gene Deal, divulged that he had an affinity for blackmailing the high and mighty. He said: “I don’t think it’s only celebrities gonna be shook. He had politicians in there; he had princes in there. He also had a couple of preachers in there.”

Suge Knight, the incarcerated, former CEO Death Row Records, has stated that Combs is an FBI informant, and that’s the reason he’s been given a Get Out of Jail Free card for his heinous crimes over the years. Granted, Knight and Combs are antagonistic towards each other, and Knight certainly isn’t a cherub, but sometimes the truth has a way of percolating on the streets. Knight also believes that Combs might be an endangered species, because of the secrets he harbors.

U.S. Attorney Damian Williams isn’t a cherub either, nor is he your average U.S. Attorney. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York is a position whose occupants have included future judges, senators, cabinet members, and a New York City mayor. The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York is considered to be the most powerful federal law enforcement official in Manhattan. 

According to 28 U.S. Code § 544, a U.S. attorney takes an “oath to execute faithfully his duties.” But Williams disregarded his oath when he facilitated the cover-up of the Epstein/Maxwell trafficking network. So, what would motivate the most powerful federal law enforcement official in Manhattan to disregard his or her oath, especially for such egregious crimes? Williams cherishes his power and doesn’t want to lose it and/or Williams himself is compromised and/or Williams and his family has/have been threatened.

Williams has spent a lot of time among political shakers and movers. He worked for John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign. Williams was then a “body man” for the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Terry McAuliffe. In politics, a body man is a ubiquitous personal aide or assistant. 

Former Virginia Governor Terry McAullife has certainly been tainted by allegations of corruption. Quoting the New York Times: “Mr. McAuliffe is a walking symbol of the wretched excess of the Clinton years. He raised millions in special-interest money for President Clinton’s campaign.” McAuliffe founded a company, GreenTech Automotive, which the Virginia Economic Development Partnership concluded was a visa-for-sale scheme. McAulliffe resigned from the company. The FBI scrutinized $120,000 donation made to McAulliffe’s Virginia gubernatorial campaign by Chinese national Wang Wenliang. McAulliffe initially denied knowing Wang until a preponderance of evidence linked him to Wenliang, who also donated $2 million to the Clinton Foundation.

In addition to aiding purportedly corrupt, political heavyweights, Williams received substantial funding from the Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships for New Americans. Williams parents immigrated from Jamaica to the United States, which made him eligible for the fellowship. Thirty Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships are awarded every year with a selection rate of 1.2%. Each fellow receives up to $90,000 in funding toward their graduate education. Williams attended Yale Law School on a Soros fellowship. (Prior to attending law school, Williams graduated with a BA in economics from Harvard.)

Peter Soros is the son of Paul & Daisy, and nephew of George Soros. Peter is on the Board of the Paul & Daisy Soros Fellowships for New Americans, and he also has the distinction of being circled twice in Epstein’s “Black Book.” Epstein’s house manager Alfredo Rodriquez purloined the Black Book, and he circled those who he perceived as being in cahoots with Epstein with regards to pedophilic pandering. Peter Soros reportedly being in cahoots with Epstein and also on the Board of an organization that gave William’s a substantial fellowship could be a very bizarre coincidence or it could be something more ominous.

If, or until, Williams indicts Combs on multiple counts of child trafficking, he will play the same role that he played for Epstein regarding the coverup of child trafficking and abuse.

In what some have called a panic/desperation negotiating tactic, Boeing has announced (late on a Friday afternoon) that it will slash its workforce by 10% as the pummeled planemaker struggles with a cash-crunch amid a drawn-out strike and ongoing quality control (to put it nicely) issues.

In a memo to employees, CEO Kelly Ortberg noted that the reductions will include executives, managers and employees, warning that:

“Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together.”

Boeing ended 2023 with 171,000 employees.

The company said it expects to report third quarter revenue of $17.8 billion, and a loss per share of $9.97, according to preliminary figures.

The company unveiled the measures and the earnings figures as it seeks to get its negotiations with labor unions back on track.

Boeing has made two offers for higher wages, both of which were turned down by workers.

About 33,000 employees at its main Seattle-area facilities have been on strike for a month now, devastating production and draining Boeing’s reserves.

The latest talks collapsed earlier this week, with no clear path when and how they might resume.

Boeing shares tumbled after hours, erasing the day’s gains…

Ortberg also said the company has notified customers that the first deliveries of the 777X are now expected in 2026, citing the ongoing work stoppage and flight test pause.

Read the full press release below:

“While our business is facing near-term challenges, we are making important strategic decisions for our future and have a clear view on the work we must do to restore our company,” said Kelly Ortberg, Boeing president and chief executive officer.

“These decisive actions, along with key structural changes to our business, are necessary to remain competitive over the long term. We are also focusing on areas that are critical to our future and will ensure we have the balance sheet necessary to invest, support our people and deliver for our customers.”

Commercial Airplanes expects to recognize pre-tax earnings charges of $3.0 billion on the 777X and 767 programs. The company now anticipates first delivery of the 777-9 in 2026 and the 777-8 freighter in 2028, resulting in a pre-tax earnings charge of $2.6 billion. This schedule and resulting financial impact are based on an updated assessment of the certification timelines to address the delays in flight testing of the 777-9, as well as anticipated delays associated with the IAM work stoppage. Commercial Airplanes also plans to conclude production of the 767 freighter and recognize a $0.4 billion pre-tax charge on the program, which also reflects impacts from the IAM work stoppage. Beginning in 2027, the company will solely produce 767-2C aircraft in support of the KC-46A Tanker program. Commercial Airplanes expects to report third quarter revenue of $7.4 billion and operating margin of (54.0) percent.

Defense, Space & Security expects to recognize pre-tax earnings charges of $2.0 billion on the T-7A, KC-46A, Commercial Crew, and MQ-25 programs. The T-7A program pre-tax charge of $0.9 billion was driven by higher estimated costs on production contracts in 2026 and beyond. The KC-46A program pre-tax charge of $0.7 billion reflects the decision to conclude production on the 767 freighter and impacts of the IAM work stoppage. Results also include unfavorable performance on other programs. Defense, Space & Security expects to report third quarter revenue $5.5 billion and operating margin of (43.1) percent.

Finally, a quick thought for all the other corporations out there…

*BOEING PRELIM 3Q REV. $17.8B, EST. $18.58B
*BOEING EXPECTS TO RECOGNIZE ABOUT $5 BILLION EARNINGS CHARGES

going woke was not such a great idea https://t.co/rF33WdGSgz pic.twitter.com/cwmw6izvsH

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 11, 2024

Live by the capitalist sword, DEI by the socialist sword…

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“…we are facing a catastrophic collapse of governance. With democracy reduced to a tragedy or a farce (probably both things)…”

–  Ugh Bardi

“As the US increasingly resembles ancient Rome, being president is more and more dangerous. Something around 35 emperors met violent deaths, most from people in and around their courts. In other words, members of the Roman Deep State. An ugly situation is brewing in and around Washington DC.” 

– Doug Casey

Don’t kid yourself: Kamala Harris does not want to be President of the United States. She doesn’t even want the ceremonial stuff, the incessant shuffling from one photo op to the next, the tedious Easter egg rolls, the prayer meetings, the turkey pardonings, the tiresome state banquets for men in strange headgear who are unfamiliar with using the fork and knife, and forbidden to sip chardonnay…

It’s obvious she has been played for a chump, that she was sandbagged into play-acting “the candidate” by an odd coalition of the distraught and the desperate — that is, the many agency blobsters who fear prison and the perfidious politicians such as Pelosi, Schumer, Mitch the Turtle, the Clintons, and Obama, paid to cover for the blob, often doing it badly, who fear the judgment of history, as well as the loss of their fortunes. Distraught and desperate characters make foolish decisions.

About thirty seconds after “Joe Biden” vowed to stay in the 2024 race, a delegation of these panicked pols paid him a call and passed him the black spot, knowing he could not credibly front for the massive election cheat underway. He was barely able to front for the previous one in 2020, when every lever of power got pulled to-the-max to conceal the truth about the steal, and to severely punish those who dared to murmur doubts about the election’s freeness and fairness.

How did they decide that Kamala would do any better? I assure you we will find out when the party explodes in recriminations sometime after November 5. It will probably turn out to look like the 2017 movie, The Death of Stalin, a frantic vaudeville of scheming buffoons oblivious to mundane doings of the suffering nation they pretend to serve. Unlike Nikita Khrushchev in 1953, Kamala did not prevail among this gang of squabbling clowns by force of personality or guile. She was merely a default setting as veep, arrived at to present the illusion of continuity and solidarity where none existed. She was not even involved in the backstage action. I doubt that anyone even asked her if she wanted the assignment — she was only notified after-the-fact. Thus, all the drinking.

The outstanding question: will the Democratic Party actually go ahead and attempt to execute an election steal despite growing evidence of a developing Trump landslide that might obviate it? The works are already in motion. The mail-in ballots went out long ago and early votes are getting cast by the day. The overseas ballots that require no US address or voter verification are flooding in by the millions and four years of open borders has 10-million illegal aliens (at a minimum) dispersed around the nation, great gobs of them planted in swing states, processed through the DMVs and social services — with the requisite automatic voter registration — their ballots already pre-bundled for harvest.

It could go a few ways.

One is, just let’er rip, harvest all those fake votes, stuff the drop-boxes, flood the zone, and do it all right in America’s face as if to say: we can do whatever we want. . .  to get whatever we want. . . and you can’t stop us.

That is probably the point where blue America finds out exactly what the Second Amendment was designed for.

You might also expect a whole lot of state-organized resistance, especially in the populous red ones, Texas, Florida, real court cases over fraud this time, contested certification.

Or, the election could come out a hopeless unresolvable muddle. There’s no precedent for this and no provision in the Constitution, but you can imagine the Supreme Court having to decide a necessary do-over minus all recent gimmicks, paper ballots only, voters with proof of citizenship only, all voting on one re-scheduled election day before January 1.

This novelty would be something apart from the clunky Congressional machinery established for settling electoral college disputes, since it is predicated on various states’ inability to determine their electoral college vote in the first place, based on patent irregularity and fraud.

You could also imagine a period of disorder so deep and grave that the regime behind “Joe Biden” declares martial law. . . or, alternately the military — the martial institution — has to take matters into its own hands, shoving aside even “Joe Biden” and his filthy retinue.

Appalling to consider, I’m sure, but these things happen in history, and the Party of Chaos has set enough mischief in motion to wreck the election and wreck the country. Call it catastrophizing, if you will. There it is.

But to step back from that abyss, it appears that Mr. Trump’s momentum accelerates by the day, that he is becoming, at last, an implacable, irresistible juggernaut who will, perforce, overcome all the gimmicks, traps, and frauds arrayed against him. Kamala seems to think so. Have you ever seen such resignation, such loserdom-in-action as her recent performance on CBS’s 60-Minutes, or her pitiful admission on ABC’s The View that she couldn’t think of anything she would do differently beyond the excellent management of national affairs under “Joe Biden” (and herself as veep). Surely that said it all. She has nothing, brings nothing.

Long ago, she was a pretty girl with a law degree and an infectious laugh on the fringes of local politics in San Francisco.

The winds of fortune blew her this way and that way until she ended up way over her head, used by the reprobates around her as a mere device to stay out of jail.

She ends as an historical prank on her own country.

It must be deeply demoralizing to be used like that in front of the whole world.

For the third week in a row (and 9th week in the last 10), money-market funds saw inflows (+$11.3BN), pushing total AUM to a new record high ($6.474TN), even as stocks surged to new record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

…and also for the third week in a row, US banks saw total bank deposits (seasonally adjusted) rise (by $53.2BN), well above pre-SVB levels…

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, deposits soared by a huge $123.9BN to the highest since Jan 2023 (before the SVB crisis)…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps even more stunning, excluding foreign deposits, domestic US banks saw a massive $99.2BN deposit inflow (SA) in the week-ending Oct 2nd – the biggest weekly deposits inflow since May 2021. On an NSA basis, domestic deposits rose $178BN…

Source: Bloomberg

Large banks saw $55.5BN of inflows (SA) and/or $123.3BN inflows (NSA). Small banks saw $43.7BN of deposits inflows and/or $54.7BN inflows (NSA). This is a new record high for Small Bank deposits…

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of the ledger, large banks saw loan volumes shrink by $1.9BN while small banks saw loan volumes rise by $4.3BN…

Source: Bloomberg

At the same time, banks are unwinding (can’t roll because the facility is closed) their loans from The Fed’s bank bailout facility…

Source: Bloomberg

Bank reserves at The Fed ticked up modestly last week but remain drastically decoupled from their historically tight relationship with US equity market capitalization…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as we detailed here, below the surface of soaring bank stocks, something serious is going on in the financial system plumbing.

Goldilocks it wasn’t… as inflation macro data surprised to the upside and growth macro data to the downside (we love the smell of stagflation in the morning)…

Source: Bloomberg

… but that didn’t stop stocks soaring for the fifth straight week, with Small Caps exploding higher today (back into the green for the week)…

…as “most shorted” stocks saw a massive squeeze higher today…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, a market wrap would not be complete without discussing the shitshow in Shanghai as Chinese stocks witnessed the greatest volatility since their meltdown in 2015, capping almost $500 billion of combined losses in mainland and Hong Kong markets, as investors demanded even more stimulus than authorities in Beijing have already pledged.

The CSI 300 Index’s weekly trading range – the gap between high and low prices – surged above 600 index points this week for the first time since July 2015.

Source: Bloomberg

Back then, Chinese markets witnessed an exodus of foreigners driven by mounting economic concerns and a government crackdown on traders which only exacerbated the panic.

Source: Bloomberg

This time, the turbulence is driven by sluggish consumer demand that threatens even the scaled-down growth ambitions of the country. The index’s 10-day and 20-day realized volatility also rose to a nine-year high.

Notably, the rise in macro surprise data has come as financial conditions have loosened to their ‘easiest’ since Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw the 45th all-time-high of the year, but none of the prior 44 have occurred alongside this elevated a level of volatility; this will be the first week of the year where the VIX has closed above 20 every day, and so ongoing elevated risk is expected as we progress through October…

Source: Bloomberg

The vol term structure is notably upward-sloping into the election now (and the coincidental FOMC meeting)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were very mixed today and on the week the short-end dramatically outperforming (practically unch on the week as the long-end blew out)…

Source: Bloomberg

After a huge flattening last week, the yield curve steepened by the most since the start of August this week with 2s10s dropping to inversion to start the week and steepening to erase the post-payrolls plunge by the end…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations rose modestly this week (with all the focus on 2025 as 2024 remains priced for less than 2 full rate cuts now)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the second straight week, testing up to August’s highs before stalling a little today…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength, Gold extended yesterday’s rebound to end the week higher, finding support at $2600 once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was flat today holding on to gains on the week (with WTI back above $75)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin exploded back higher today (from $59,000 to $63,000), to end the week solidly in the green (after testing near one-month lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this the start of Bitcoin’s rip on the back of surging liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this weekend represents the two year anniversary from the bear market lows. The S&P is up 66% from the lows in October 2021, helped by and endless supply of liquidity from global central planners…]

Source: Bloomberg

BUT… the last week or two has seen liquidity start to contract a little (even as stocks soared to record-er highs)…

Source: Bloomberg

Will the money-printers get back to work… or will stocks sink into the election (which Trump is now leading in all the prediction markets – but not the polls)?

Source: Bloomberg

There’s no bears left…

Source: Bloomberg

…well maybe some…

San Francisco is gearing up to shut down 9% of its public schools in a desperate move to fix a massive budget deficit. With student enrollment plummeting and pandemic relief funds drying up, the city is set to close or merge 11 out of its 121 schools, leaving the future of thousands of students and teachers hanging in the balance.

The proposal, which was announced late Tuesday, comes as the school district faces a whopping $113 million in cuts by 2026, or risk a dreaded state takeover. “Without a balanced budget and a plan to consolidate our resources, we risk a state takeover,” warned Superintendent Matt Wayne, adding that such a takeover would “further deplete resources directed to our schools, erode our collective decision-making power, and likely compound educational disparities for our most vulnerable students.”

The schools on the chopping block serve about 2,000 kids, while another two will merge with other locations, according to local reports. And it’s not just the school closures – San Francisco’s school district has already been slashing jobs and cutting back on school supplies. Things could get worse when the final list of schools is voted on next month by the school board, Bloomberg reports.

This is the latest blow to a city grappling with skyrocketing homelessness and a fentanyl crisis. San Francisco’s public school enrollment has plunged by over 4,000 students in the last seven years – costing the district $80 million. By 2032, they’re expecting to lose another 4,600 students thanks to falling birth rates and demographic shifts.

Feeding the ‘Doom Loop’

The planned school closures are more than just a budgetary issue – they are a reflection of the larger economic “doom loop” San Francisco finds itself trapped in. As described by the San Francisco Chronicle, the city’s economic ecosystem is spiraling as the decline of core public services like schools accelerates a broader exodus of residents and businesses.

Thanks to crime, filth, and the pandemic – downtown SF has seen a sharp reduction in foot traffic as remote work has left office buildings and businesses empty. This shift has eroded the city’s tax base, leading to budget shortfalls across vital services. Now, with the closure of schools, families may be even more likely to leave the city, taking their children and spending power with them.

The doom loop is driven by a vicious cycle: diminished public services push people and businesses away, shrinking the tax revenue the city relies on to fund those very services. The closure of schools, much like the rise in homelessness and the overdose epidemic, threatens to further compound the fact that San Francisco is a city in decline, locked in a downward spiral.

As San Francisco’s public institutions falter, the question looms – how much longer can the city sustain these losses before it hits a tipping point?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The best news for Republicans is not the uptick in polls for Trump. It’s the likelihood they can avoid a devastating Democrat sweep if Trump were to lose.

A set of New York Times/Siena College Senate Polls shows Republicans are ahead in three crucial Senate races they need to win to take control of the Senate.

• Florida: Scott 49%: Mucarsel-Powell 40%

• Montana: Sheehy 52%: Tester 44%

• Texas: Cruz 48%: Allred 44%

In addition, Cook Political (paywalled)

Cook Political

Bear in mind, Cook Political uses “Tossup” liberally. That emphasizes MT leans Republican.

On Wisconsin

On October 8, Cook Political commented Wisconsin Senate Shifts From Lean Democrat To Toss Up

With less than a month until Election Day, many of the Senate battlegrounds have begun to tighten. Our Swing State Project surveys last week showed Wisconsin to be the closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled, with Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s seven-point August lead shrinking to two points, 49%-47%, over GOP challenger Eric Hovde.

Another poll from the respected Marquette Law School last week still showed Baldwin with a seven point edge, 53%-46%. However, private polling from both parties mirrors what our survey found — that this race is within the margin of error — and both Republicans and Democrats view other polls as outliers.

This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable. Wisconsin is one of the most evenly divided states in the country, and the 2022 Senate race was decided by one point. While Baldwin is still leading independents by eight points, 50%-42%, we have seen an 11-point swing among the bloc toward Hovde since August.

Hovde, a self-funding venture capitalist, was initially touted as ….

The rest is paywalled.

Blue Wall Cracks

On October 9, a Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Michigan Moves To Toss-Up, Dems Lead In PA & WI

Less than a month until Election Day, the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin show a tight presidential race where neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump is winning as all three states are too close to call, according to Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh- pea-ack) University polls of likely voters in each of the states released today.

Likely voters were asked who they think would do a better job handling seven issues…

The economy:

• PA: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris;
• WI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Immigration:

• PA: 50 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris;
• WI: 52 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

Preserving democracy in the United States:

• PA: 44 percent say Trump, while 50 percent say Harris;
• MI: 49 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• WI: 47 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris.

Abortion:

• PA: 37 percent say Trump, while 55 percent say Harris;
• MI: 40 percent say Trump, while 52 percent say Harris;
• WI: 39 percent say Trump, while 53 percent say Harris.

The conflict in the Middle East:

• PA: 47 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• MI: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 44 percent say Harris.

As Commander in Chief of the U.S. military:

• PA: 48 percent say Trump, while 48 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 51 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

A crisis that put the country at great risk:

• PA: 46 percent say Trump, while 49 percent say Harris;
• MI: 52 percent say Trump, while 46 percent say Harris;
• WI: 49 percent say Trump, while 47 percent say Harris.

Trump generally comes out on top except for abortion.

Michigan Senate

The race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan is tied, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting Democratic Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin and 48 percent of likely voters supporting former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers.

This compares to September when Slotkin received 51 percent support and Rogers received 46 percent support.

In today’s poll, Democrats 98 – 1 percent support Slotkin, while Republicans 92 – 5 percent support Rogers. Independents are evenly split, with 48 percent supporting Slotkin and 48 percent supporting Rogers.

Electric Vehicles

That is another outstanding poll for Republicans. Don’t be surprised if this all hinges on EVs.

Likely voters 57 – 34 percent oppose government incentives to encourage people to buy more electric vehicles.

Republicans (91 – 5 percent) and independents (58 – 32 percent) oppose government incentives, while Democrats (69 – 18 percent) support them.

The Trump campaign ought to be flooding the airwaves and TV ads in Michigan with the message on EVs.

Pollster Ratings

Republicans tend to knock New York Times polls, but NYT polls are really conducted by Siena College. And according to Nate Silver Siena is one of the top rated pollsters with almost no historical bias.

Quinnipiac University is also an unbiased pollster. This news is very favorable for Republicans.

Final Thoughts

I am a believer in momentum, and momentum has shifted, more so in Senate polls than in the national election. Regardless, Nate Silver lags. I will cover this separately.

Trump remains his own worst enemy. If Trump practiced the debate against Harris, he would not have dug himself into a huge hole. But here we are.

I would not go so far to say for certain that Trump is out of the hole, but at least he is near the edge. No one knows how this will turn out nationally because there is still time for either candidate to make a major error.

However, we can say it is now likely Republicans take the Senate.

Teva Pharmaceuticals USA Inc. and Teva Neuroscience Inc. (collectively, Teva) have agreed to pay $450 million to resolve allegations that they violated the Anti-Kickback Statute (AKS) and the False Claims Act (FCA), according to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).

Teva is an Israeli company, with U.S. headquarters in Parsippany, New Jersey, and is the largest generic drug manufacturer in the United States, according to the DOJ.

The settlement amount was based on Teva’s ability to pay, the DOJ said.

As Chase Smith details below, via The Epoch Times, the settlement addresses two alleged kickback schemes.

First, Teva allegedly violated and conspired to violate the AKS and FCA by covering Medicare patients’ copays for the multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone from 2006 through 2017, while steadily increasing the drug’s price.

The DOJ alleged that Teva coordinated with a specialty pharmacy and two purportedly independent copay assistance foundations to ensure donations were used specifically to cover Copaxone copays for Medicare patients with multiple sclerosis, which is prohibited by law.

Second, Teva USA agreed to resolve separate allegations of conspiring with other generic drug manufacturers to fix prices for pravastatin—a widely used cholesterol medication—as well as clotrimazole and tobramycin.

Teva USA entered into a deferred prosecution agreement with the DOJ’s Antitrust Division last year, paying a criminal penalty of $225 million and admitting to conspiring with three other companies to fix prices on certain generic drugs.

The $450 million payment to resolve the allegations is in addition to the criminal penalty previously paid under the deferred prosecution agreement.

Under the civil settlement announced today, Teva agreed to resolve allegations that the benefits it received from the price-fixing scheme constituted illegal kickbacks.

“Kickbacks designed to induce referrals or purchases of healthcare goods or services distort physician and patient decision-making, thwart competition and bypass controls put in place to protect federal health care programs,” said Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Brian M. Boynton, head of the DOJ’s Civil Division.

“The Justice Department is committed to pursuing those who engage in kickback violations, including drug manufacturers, to ensure that federal health care programs continue to serve the interests of taxpayers and program beneficiaries.”

The settlement is the largest to date involving pharmaceutical companies allegedly using third-party foundations as conduits to unlawfully pay patient copays.

“Kickback arrangements by pharmaceutical companies escalate the costs for critical drugs used by our citizens and federal health care programs,” U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania Jacqueline Romero said.

“My office is proud to work with the rest of the Department of Justice and our investigative partners to enforce federal laws prohibiting kickback arrangements.”

Since 2017, the United States has collected more than $1 billion from pharmaceutical companies that allegedly used third-party foundations to unlawfully pay patient copays, in addition to today’s settlement, according to the DOJ.

The Epoch Times reached out to Teva USA for a response to the settlement but did not hear back before publication.

By Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

Is the inflation dragon really dead?

Markets are a bit cautious as we are heading for the weekend. US stock markets declined yesterday and the 10 year US treasury yield moved up and down in an attempt to find direction. In the end it was down. China’s finance minister will give a fiscal policy briefing on Saturday. Markets are expecting Beijing to announce 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan ($280-$420 billion) in new spending and worries about whether it will deliver. Meanwhile, the Middle East is still waiting for Israel’s retaliation against Iran. On the bright side, this morning monthly UK GDP growth turned positive (0.2%) again in August, after two months of zero growth.

Yesterday, the US CPI figures were higher than expected: headline inflation fell to 2.4% (2.3% expected by the Bloomberg consensus) and core inflation even rebounded to 3.3% (expected unchanged at 3.2%). The month-on-month rates were also higher than anticipated. The headline continued to rise at 0.2%, in contrast to an expected slowdown to 0.1%. The core kept rising at 0.3%, instead of slowing down to 0.2% as foreseen by the consensus. Looking inside the core, services-less-rent-of-shelter inflation rebounded from 4.3% to 4.4% and showed a strong acceleration from 0.1% to 0.6% month-on-month. This is the part of the core that is supposed to be most closely related to wage growth and should be affected by the Fed’s attempts to bring the labor market in better balance. In the minutes of the September 17-18 meeting released on Wednesday, some participants had proudly noted that “the rate of increase in core nonhousing services prices had moved down further.” Well, think again. On the bright side, shelter inflation fell from 5.2% to 4.9% and eased in month-on-month terms from 0.5% to 0.2%. Nevertheless, core inflation still seems a bit sticky.

In contrast, the initial jobless claims for the first week of October rose to 258K from 225K a week earlier. A big jump, but a large part of this seems to be weather-related. There were large percentage increases in Southeastern states such as North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee that were hammered by Hurricane Helene. Therefore, the Fed will look through it.  Instead, for the labor market the picture drawn by the Employment Report will prevail: strong employment growth, a decline in unemployment, and stronger average hourly earnings growth. So to summarize, September saw a strong labor market, a rebound in core inflation….  and a 50 bps cut by the Fed.

Nevertheless, three Fed speakers remain convinced that inflation is heading in the right direction and the FOMC can continue to cut rates. John Williams (New York Fed) said  that “Month to month, there’s wiggles and bumps in the data, but we’ve seen this pretty steady process of inflation moving downward … I expect that that will continue.” He also said that he thought it would be appropriate to “continue the process of moving the stance of monetary policy to a more neutral setting over time.” Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) said “the overall trend for inflation over 12 to 18 months was clearly moving down.” Thomas Barkin (Richmond Fed), said inflation was “definitely headed in the right direction.” In contrast to these three, Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) said “I am totally comfortable with skipping a meeting if the data suggests that’s appropriate.” He also revealed that his September projections would imply one more 25 bps cut this year, after the 50 in September.

Yesterday French prime minister Michel Barnier presented the 2025 budget. Given the dire state of France’s public finances, it was closely watched. Our France watcher Erik-Jan van Harn notes that beforehand Barnier warned that without intervention next year’s deficit could swell to 7% of GDP. Swift action is thus needed so Barnier presented plans to reduce the deficit by EUR60bn next year, around 2% of GDP. The package includes a combination of broad spending cuts and tax rises on big corporations and affluent individuals.

Even though these plans are quite detailed, prime minister Barnier stressed that the budget draft is a starting point for lawmakers. He welcomes any amendments to the plans provided they don’t undermine the budget’s integrity. However, this openness raises the concern that certain secure cost-saving measures or revenue boosts might be swapped for overly optimistic proposals. Moreover, this open stance clearly shows that Barnier lacks a parliamentary majority. His government relies on opposition backing, which remains uncertain. Chances are that Barnier will have to significantly water down his proposals or that he will face another vote of no confidence.

Consequently, we don’t believe that this budget will take away the market’s worries. Rating agencies are likely to look at this in a similar fashion. Fitch, who currently rates France as AA- with a stable outlook having downgraded the country one notch in April 2023, will review France’s rating after market’s close on October 11.

Our Rates Strategy team notes that it is likely that this review will lead to a downgrade. As of the end of June, the agency saw French budget deficits standing at 5.1% of GDP in 2024 and 4.2% over the ensuing two years. It also warned that a political paralysis risked the introduction of expansionary items into the country’s budget plan in order to ensure its approval whilst also limiting the scope for fiscal consolidation. Given the risks already highlighted by the agency and the comparatively optimistic nature of its earlier projections, we see a rating downgrade as likely. While clearly not a positive from a spread perspective we believe that the market is already largely pricing for such a move. For more details, please read Erik-Jan’s report on the French budget.

Goldman hosted its Private Real Estate Retail (shopping center) Webinar on Thursday with panelists Mary Rottler from First Washington, Daniel Zatloukal from Inland Real Estate, and Joseph Tichar from Raider Hill. The webinar discussed many topics, including the consumer, 2025 same-store NOI growth, retailer bankruptcies, transaction market and cap rates, and the financing environment.

Our focus on the webinar centers around discussing high-end and low-end consumers trading down. This phenomenon occurs as macroeconomic headwinds mount, including elevated inflation and high interest rates due to backfiring ‘Bidenomics.’ More importantly, trading down occurs when incomes don’t keep up with inflation or when purchasing power decreases.

Here are the key takeaways of the high-end and low-end consumers trading down, penned in a note by a team of Goldman analysts led by Caitlin Burrows:

The high-end consumer remains strong while lower-end sees softness, and both are trading down.

• In terms of the higher-end consumer, panelists noted that across their grocer anchored centers exposed to the upper quartile of demographics, traffic remains strong. August traffic was up +8.7% yoy, with positive y/y monthly trends throughout 2024 and traffic up double digits vs 2022, driving optimistic expectations around the holiday season.

• Panelists also highlighted that for low-end consumer, demand for essentials and services are still strong but discretionary spending such as luxury and cosmetics is relatively weak, and as a result, holiday sales will rely on how retailers incentivize customers to shop.

• Panelists noted that the trade-down phenomenon is present in both high-end and low-end consumer. For example, Nordstrom (luxury department store chain) sales are flat to down while Nordstrom Rack (off-price department store chain) sales are up. Additionally, low-end consumer is experiencing some stress and trading down into discount retailers like Walmart, Target, and Sam’s.

At the beginning of August, we noted that the last time “trading down” mentions spiked on earnings calls was during GFC.  

The latest inflation data for September printed hotter than expected, and the persistent inflation storm has wreaked havoc on low/mid-tier households. The note above from Goldman is just more evidence that the consumer downturn has spread to wealthier households. 

Could we really replay the ’70s once again?

After all, the consumer has never been in worse financial shape, with record-high credit card debt and drained personal savings.

Looking at Goldman’s consumer baskets, middle-income consumers are outperforming high-end consumers, while low-income consumers continue to face mounting pressure.

The big takeaway is that our consumer downturn theme continues and possibly now signals stress for the more wealthy households as the Biden-Harris inflation storm persists. Everyone appears to be pissed off about food inflation.

Also, an energy price shock at the gas pump could be ahead if Israel bombs Iran’s crude oil export facilities. Price shocks of this kind could trigger a recession.