America’s Biggest Adversary? Kamala Harris Is Absorbing Absurd Cheney Talking Points

America’s Biggest Adversary? Kamala Harris Is Absorbing Absurd Cheney Talking Points

The Biden administration has long talked about Russia as America’s greatest adversary, particularly in the context of the long-raging Ukraine war. The CIA and US national intelligence community, as well as the Pentagon, have more broadly named China as America’s #1 ‘pacing threat’ globally and in the long term.

This is why it’s somewhat curious and unexpected for Vice President Kamala Harris to name Iran as the United States’ top “adversary” when asked in her 60 Minutes interview. It seems she’s just jumping on the bandwagon, going with the geopolitical hot spot of the moment which happens to be grabbing the headlines, just as Israel is poised to retaliate against Iran.

Asked by the show host about which country is America’s “greatest adversary,” she responded, “I think there’s an obvious one in mind which is Iran. Iran has American blood on their hands.”

“And what we saw in terms of just this attack on Israel, 200 ballistic missiles, what we need to do to ensure that Iran never achieves the ability to be a nuclear power, that is one of my highest priorities,” she continued.

In follow-up Harris was asked whether she would approve military action against Iran if it became evident country had nuclear weapons. She responded, “I’m not gonna talk about hypotheticals at this moment.”

An independent journalist and analyst of the region, Zaid Jilani, pointed out the following:

Kamala Harris says Iran is America’s greatest adversary. How is a country with 60 times smaller GDP than ours our biggest adversary? It does suggest that her lack of policy knowledge just has her absorbing silly Cheney talking points.

Perhaps she’s also doing the pre-election let me demonstrate my full commitment to Israel ritual which pretty much every candidate of the past decades on both sides of the aisle has done.

Harris has of late repeatedly touted 

As for current Washington consensus on who’s the ‘big threat’, the 2022 National Defense Strategy labels China the “most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security strategy.”

And it identifies Russia as a close second. Iran finds mention as merely in the category of “persistent threats” – which also includes small non-state actors like al-Qaeda.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 18:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/6vogWfD Tyler Durden

Advisory Committee On Immunization Practices Could Change Attitudes On Vaccines

Advisory Committee On Immunization Practices Could Change Attitudes On Vaccines

Authored by Charles Sauer via RealClearHealth,

There are sundry problems with our healthcare system, and, unfortunately, many of our most significant challenges originate with government policies and public health recommendations – well-meaning intentions seldom have the outcome that was designed.

Too frequently, critics argue, government policies pick winners and losers vis-à-vis health care. Such policy decisions are often settled deep within government bureaucracies at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), Health and Human Services (HHS), and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Health care advocates need to stay focused on the health policy decisions impacting the relationship between physicians and patients; on vaccine protocols; and myriad other rulings which have direct consequence on access to care. Patient organizations and the health policy community can help government agencies call ‘balls and strikes’ in a fair, pro-science approach.

Later this month the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) is likely to vote on new recommendations relating to pneumococcal vaccinations. Specifically, ACIP is expected to endorse a recommendation to lower the age for routine pneumococcal vaccination from age 65 to 50. Such a policy change will save lives by expanding access to immunizations. Greater access to life-affirming care is a policy move that must be lauded from all quarters of the health care debate.

Greater access, though, is only half of what patients need when it comes to their medicine – greater access must be linked with more choice. Who should decide what medicine is best for a patient? The answer is simple and grounded in good science: patients with their doctors. So, with its decision to back the new recommendation to lower the age for pneumococcal vaccination to 50 and older, ACIP must not pick a ‘winner’ or a ‘loser’ regarding FDA approved vaccines in this health space.

There are two primary FDA-approved vaccines for pneumococcal disease. Health advocates and policy experts are not pushing one over the other, and neither should ACIP. Both vaccines should be included in ACIP’s recommendation to physicians.

It makes no good health-sense for these decisions – the right medicine for the right patient at the right time – to happen anywhere outside of the exam room. ACIP is comprised of the very best minds on vaccine practices, which is why they are serving in Atlanta at the CDC. However, gifted physicians and professionals in Atlanta should not be making intimate health decisions for patients in rural North Carolina or the Southside of Chicago. Modern medicine demands greater access (lowering the recommended age) and more choice (recommending both FDA-approved vaccines).

Given the post-COVID distrust many patients hold toward public health experts, ACIP (an agency unaccountable to the public) must not exclude innovations that could save lives. We know vaccines save lives; why limit recommendations on what vaccine a doctor should prescribe? Decisions made at the CDC impact Medicare and private insurance coverage so limiting patients to only one vaccine could impact compliance. ACIP’s recommendation will affect patients – positively or negatively –  from coast to coast.

Recommending one vaccine raises several concerns:

  • The patient-physician relationship is breached
  • Lack of insurance coverage, higher out-of-pocket costs, and non-compliance
  • Sufficient supply
  • Lack of competition (we know drug costs come down as competition increases)

Greater access and more choice make for good vaccine policy. Patients deserve a healthcare system that encourages competition, allows for innovation, and promotes the doctor-patient relationship. What’s more, ACIP’s decision on pneumococcal vaccinations could help reset the public’s attitude toward the public health community.

Charles Sauer (@CharlesSauer) is president of the Market Institute and author of “Profit Motive: What Drives the Things We Do.” He has previously worked on Capitol Hill, for a governor, and for an academic think tank. 

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 17:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/VPlsNv0 Tyler Durden

Seoul Alleges North Korean Troops Are Fighting & Dying In Ukraine

Seoul Alleges North Korean Troops Are Fighting & Dying In Ukraine

The South Korean government this week has made a big and bold accusation – it says North Korean troops are currently fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. 

The charge was specifically made by Seoul’s defense minister Kim Yong-hyun on Tuesday. He described that he has reason to believe that six North Korean officers were killed in Donetsk when a Ukrainian missile hit their location on October 3rd. He called reports which first surfaced in Ukrainian media “highly likely”.

The defense minister in a briefing with South Korean political leaders said, “We assess that the occurrence of casualties among North Korean officers and soldiers in Ukraine is highly likely, considering various circumstances.”

“The issue of deploying regular troops is highly likely due to the mutual agreements that resemble a military alliance between Russia and North Korea,” he noted further.

Seoul expects that more North Korean troops will be sent to the conflict. The accusation, which lacks hard evidence, comes after months of official US allegations saying the north has sent arms and ammo into Russia by the trainload.

What is clear is that Moscow and Pyongyang have made no secret that they are deepening their ties, including on the military front, but both sides have denied North Korean involvement in Ukraine.

There have been several exchanges of defense delegations, and Kim has visited Russia, and Putin even made a very rare visit to Pyongyang in June. The two leaders signed a mutual defense agreement this past summer.

Below is how the initial claims of North Korean officer deaths were reported in Ukrainian and US media:

Six North Korean military officers were among about 20 military personnel killed in a Ukrainian missile strike on Russian-occupied territory near the city of Donetsk, a Ukrainian news agency reported. 

Citing sources in Ukraine’s military intelligence, Interfax-Ukraine said three North Korean servicemen were also wounded. Ukraine’s Kyiv Post reported that the attack happened on Thursday, citing intelligence sources.

Interfax-Ukraine, in its report on Friday, cited Russian bloggers as saying that North Korean military officers were visiting the front as part of an “exchange of experience” program

The North Korean military was shown how the Russians were “preparing for assault actions, for defense,” when “a missile strike was launched on the training ground,” the Ukrainian news agency added.

If true this would mark a major escalation of N.Korea’s involvement. “More North Korean troops could be deployed in the war,” Seoul has warned.

The West wouldn’t be able to do much, having already put fairly maximum sanctions on both Russia and North Korea. It could be another dangerous sign that the Ukraine war is getting more and more internationalized.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 17:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/RT45ocl Tyler Durden

Global Crackdown: How Foreign Censorship Threatens American Free Speech

Global Crackdown: How Foreign Censorship Threatens American Free Speech

Authored by Ben Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

On the eve of a highly-anticipated live X “Spaces” conversation between Elon Musk and former president Donald Trump, the powerful (former) European Union Commissioner Thierry Breton warned in August that authorities would be “monitoring” the conversation for “content that may incite violence, hate, and racism.” 

While reminding Musk that the EU was already investigating X for alleged failures “to combat disinformation,” Breton said he and his colleagues “will not hesitate to make full use of our toolbox … to protect EU citizens from serious harm.”

The European Commission distanced itself from Breton, who would eventually resign his post while facing scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers for threatening Musk and Americans’ free speech and interfering in domestic politics. But the EU probe of X, which could result in crippling fines, persists.

Although litigation, congressional oversight efforts, and reportage led by the Twitter Files have helped expose the U.S. government’s efforts to pressure social media companies to censor protected political speech, the recent rumblings from Europe underscore the escalating challenges American-based social media platforms are facing from foreign authorities – not just from repressive regimes such as China and Iran, but also from the EU, the U.K., Brazil, and other democracies. 

Free speech advocates warn that foreign demands that tech companies comply with their censorious legal and regulatory standards that violate the First Amendment’s protections will hamper the ability of Americans to communicate freely in the digital public square. Facebook’s Community Standards, for example, “apply to everyone, all around the world.” Academics have termed the tendency of companies to apply the strictest local guidelines globally as the “Brussels Effect.”

Mike Benz, a former State Department cyber official and executive director of the Foundation for Freedom Online, argues that foreign efforts to cast populist narratives on matters such as election integrity, immigration, and public health as mis- and dis-information constitute a surreptitious “transatlantic flank attack” on American speech. 

However, evidence suggests that U.S. authorities and U.S.-supported NGOs that have sought greater restrictions on speech have, at minimum, indirectly supported these foreign efforts, creating a backdoor method to suppress protected speech at home.

For instance, the White House pressured platforms to censor content pertaining to COVID-19 and election integrity. Agencies from the Justice Department to the Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Communications Commission have probed Musk’s enterprises during the Biden years.

Defining Illegal Content

The U.S. government has used the FBI and the State Department, among other agencies, to coordinate counter-disinformation efforts globally with other nations. The goal is said to build “a more resilient global information system, where objective facts are elevated and deceptive messages gain less traction,” in the words of  Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

As a State Department spokesman told RealClearInvestigations, “The United States is committed to advancing a rights-respecting approach to technology that mitigates potential harms while maintaining the free and open use of digital platforms.”

We are concerned by actions to limit access to information anywhere in the world,” the spokesman added.

The European Union’s Digital Services Act is seen by champions of stringent content moderation standards and critics alike as the strongest global effort to regulate speech. 

Adopted in 2022 and praised by former President Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the measure imposes a slew of regulatory requirements on the more than a dozen social media platforms and search engines that have at least 45 million users in the EU.

It requires these platforms to take measures to counter “illegal content online,” not only responding to user-flagged posts but those fingered by “specialised ‘trusted flaggers’” for removal, according to a European Commission Q&A.

“Illegal content,” the Commission writes, includes “illegal hate speech” and other prohibited rhetoric, pursuant to EU law or those within any of its 27 member states. Platforms also must take “risk-based action,” including undergoing independent audits to combat “disinformation or election manipulation” – with the expectation those measures should be taken in consultation with “independent experts and civil society organisations.” The Commission says these measures are aimed at mitigating “systemic issues such as … hoaxes and manipulation during pandemics, harms to vulnerable groups and other emerging societal harms” driven by “harmful” but not illegal content.

The DSA also references a Code of Practice on Disinformation, under which Big Tech companies such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft have agreed to demonetize purported disinformation pursuant to European Commission guidance.

Notable signatories and contributors to the “self-regulatory” code include the U.S.-based NewsGuard (which took issue, to a degree, with the final product) and the U.K.-based Global Disinformation Index – both of which have received U.S. government funding – and the Brussels-based World Federation of Advertisers.

These organizations have each allegedly targeted the advertising revenue of independent media outlets – with NewsGuard and the Global Disinformation Index disparaging RealClearPolitics – by working with major brands and advertising agencies to blacklist outlets that publish work that challenges official narratives.

The DSA suggests that compliance with the Code of Practice on Disinformation may satisfy its “risk mitigation” standards. European regulators have called for formally incorporating the “voluntary” code into the DSA’s “co-regulatory framework.”

X and Meta in the Crosshairs

X and Meta have both faced “formal proceedings” under the Digital Service Act over the last year concerning potentially non-compliant practices touching on political speech. (Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg recently expressed regret for caving in to pressure from the FBI and Biden-Harris administration to censor political content the government didn’t want Americans to see). 

Those ongoing investigations can impose fines of up to 6% of annual global revenue and even suspension, should platforms fail to remedy violations. Neither X nor Meta responded to RCI’s requests for comment. Punitive threats, along with the broader business imperative to access the EU’s 450-million-person marketplace, have led many to speculate that a Brussels Effect will take hold.

Adam Candeub, a former Trump administration Commerce Department official who teaches at Michigan State University, worries that platforms “may very well decide to run the[mselves] consistent with the wishes of the EU – rather than deal with the cost and administrative burdens of running one DSA-compliant version in Europe and another, First Amendment-consistent version in the United States.”

He likens the model created by the Digital Services Act in Europe to the “whole-of-society” model to stifle disfavored information – a system of censorship pioneered by the U.S. government in the run-up to the 2020 election and codified in the Biden administration’s National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism. The Digital Services Act, Candeub notes, mandates this architecture by creating “a surveillance structure in which there is intimate government involvement at multiple layers.”

George Washington University Law School Professor Dawn Carla Nunziato concurs that “the DSA’s substantive content moderation and notice and take down provisions will likely incentivize the platforms to remove large swaths of content – including political speech, criticism of political figures, parody, and pro-LGBTQ+ speech – that may be flagged by private entities as illegal under EU countries’ laws.”

Some American players who favor greater content restriction welcome the Brussels Effect. “If it weren’t for the European Union and the Digital Services Act, I don’t know that we’d have much hope of rectifying” the spread of mis- and dis-information, George Washington University Institute for Data, Democracy, and Politics Director Rebekah Tromble said during a panel discussion on the Center for Democracy & Technology’s Report.

“Hopefully,” she added, “as the DSA begins to come into force and the platforms feel the real pressure of actual enforcement action,” it would spur them to re-staff relevant positions and re-focus on content moderation.

Tromble did not respond to RCI’s request for comment.

When asked whether it would defend American companies targeted under the regulatory regime, a State Department spokesman told RCI, “We are engaging with our European colleagues on some specific concerns on the DSA … which we believe would make it easier to achieve transatlantic cooperation and alignment on these critical issues.” 

Brazil Leads Crackdown

Brazil’s government recently took the extraordinary step of banning X over the platform’s refusal to comply with orders from its Supreme Court that it take down the accounts of former President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters in a sweeping effort to curtail the speech of the country’s populist-nationalist right. 

This marked the climax of a fight in which X’s legal representative faced the threat of arrest, Musk found himself under criminal investigation, and Brazil seized funds from his Starlink satellite Internet service companies’ accounts to satisfy fines. 

Musk noted the risks of challenging Brazil’s authorities back in April, claiming, “We will probably lose all revenue in Brazil and have to shut down our office there.” He vowed to defy Brasília. 

But in September, X agreed to comply with orders from Brazil’s Supreme Court. With roughly five times as many X users in the EU as in Brazil, free speech advocates worry that the social media giant might bow to European Commission pressure just as quickly.

Under the same pressure to remove disfavored content creators, YouTube alternative Rumble announced it would be leaving Brazil last December. 

French authorities arrested Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov in August for allegedly permitting criminal activity on the messaging application and refusing to turn over information or documents with investigators pursuant to law, drawing outcries from Musk and other free speech proponents.

Telegram, too, eventually agreed to comply with government requests for user data concerning alleged crimes.

That same month, amid anti-immigration fervor sparked by a stabbing attack resulting in the murder of three British children – wrongly attributed in viral social media posts to an asylum seeker – Metropolitan Police Commissioner Mark Rowley threatened extradition and jail time for Americans should they violate British speech laws concerning “incitement,” “stirring up racial hatred,” or other “terrorist offenses regarding the publishing of material.”

“[W]hether you’re in this country committing crimes on the streets or committing crimes from further afield online, we will come after you,” Rowley warned.

Stiff Fines for Offending Speech

The United Kingdom’s Online Safety Act serves as a likely legal basis for Rowley’s remarks. Starting in 2025, the U.K.’s regulator, Ofcom, will be able to charge firms up to 10% of their global annual revenues should they fail to “take robust action” against content that includes “racially or religiously aggravated public order offences,” “inciting violence” – or apparently even raising concerns about “illegal immigration.” 

In September, U.K. officials held talks with X regarding “the spread of misinformation and other harmful content,” according to a CNBC report, as it had other platforms, following calls by one lawmaker to summon Musk for questions before parliament.

Australia, too, recently indicated it will fine platforms up to 5% of their global revenue should they fail to prevent the spread of “misinformation” online, specifically around elections and public health.

The Biden-Harris administration’s general silence on these matters has drawn the ire of Republican lawmakers, who see quiet in the face of foreign authorities’ targeting of American entities as acquiescing to, if not tacitly endorsing, the practice of interfering with Americans’ First Amendment rights.

The House Judiciary Committee reportedly subpoenaed the State Department for information regarding its communications with the EU following Breton’s threats regarding the Musk-Trump discussion. The committee sent the European Commission a letter on Sept. 10 calling on it to provide information on any communications it has had with the White House “to use EU law as a way to bypass the First Amendment.”

Foggy Bottom did not respond to RCI’s inquiries concerning potential coordination with foreign authorities targeting Americans’ speech, particularly in the EU or Brazil.

Journalist Michael Shellenberger reported in August 2023 on an apparent quid pro quo during the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the White House protected social media platforms from European data privacy regulations after platforms bowed to the administration’s own censorship demands.

Benz has called the Digital Services Act an “EU-to-U.S. censorship pipeline” that he sees as a successor to Germany’s NetzDG law, passed in the wake of the 2016 elections, that saw populist victories across the West under pressure from former State Department officials. 

That law, Benz said, “forced YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter to begin adopting AI censorship techniques across the board for continuity with global markets, boomeranging back on Americans.” The Digital Services Act, he contends, is “designed to force platforms to hire more censors, who in turn will focus on U.S. affairs.”

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican, told RCI that “The Biden-Harris administration’s failure to stand up to Brazil’s institutional harassment of X, Musk, and Starlink is yet another display of their weakness on the world stage. Their timidity signals, once again, that American leadership is in retreat, and allows enemies of free speech everywhere to grow bolder and flourish.”

White House Supports Foreign Censors

Senior Biden administration officials reportedly told former President Jair Bolsonaro prior to the 2022 general election that he ought not to cast doubt on the integrity of Brazil’s election system in connection with that race.

After leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the election by a small margin, Presidents Biden and Lula delivered a joint statement “reaffirm[ing] their intention to build societal resilience to disinformation, and agree[ing] to work together on these issues.” The State Department did not respond to RCI about what that work has entailed.

In May, Paulo Figueiredo, a popular Brazilian journalist and television show host targeted by Brazil’s Supreme Court, marshaled evidence in testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee that “the U.S. government and NGOs acted directly in strengthening Brazil’s censorship apparatus.” 

The Biden administration has previously consulted with foreign governments and NGOs regarding disfavored speech, according to evidence obtained by America First Legal, a conservative organization that fights “lawless executive actions.” As part of the National Security Council’s 2021 interagency meetings on COVID-related speech, the White House hosted the United Kingdom’s Counter Disinformation Unit. 

The administration appears to have adopted some of the unit’s recommendations, including establishing a National Election Command Post within the FBI that flagged Americans’ accounts to Twitter for potential censorship over allegedly spreading “misinformation” regarding the 2022 midterm election.

America First Legal also notes that the White House “solicited policy recommendations from the British-based Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) – the group behind the U.K. Online Safety Act – and adopted commitments to hold companies accountable through DOJ prosecutions and FTC enforcement actions for allowing ‘online harassment’ on their platforms.”

The Center for Countering Digital Hate, a group led by multiple individuals tied to Britain’s Labour Party, “works to stop the spread of online hate and disinformation through innovative research, public campaigns and policy advocacy.” It published a report on “The Disinformation Dozen” calling for social media platforms to suppress prominent skeptics of public health orthodoxy regarding COVID-19, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., that Biden administration officials and Democratic Party state attorneys general used to press the companies accordingly.

A State Department spokesperson told RCI that the U.S. is a “champion of and leader in the protection of freedom of expression.” But both the House Foreign Affairs and Small Business Committees have presented evidence indicating that the U.S. government has used foreign-facing offices purportedly aimed at targeting foreign propaganda – including the State Department’s Global Engagement Center, which has granted taxpayer dollars to counter-disinformation entities – to suppress the protected speech of Americans.

The Small Business Committee reported that the Global Engagement Center “sourced, developed, then platformed and promoted” private-sector tools for targeting purported “mis-, dis-, and mal-information” to tech platforms “with the ability to moderate domestic speech and impact domestic business operations,” including working with foreign governments to test said products.

In a March 2024 speech on “Building a More Resilient Information Environment” during the third “Summit for Democracy,” Secretary Blinken argued that “disinformation transcends borders. It crosses platforms. No single country, no single entity can meet this challenge alone.”

To create “a healthier information environment,” he added, the administration is using “diplomacy, advancing a shared understanding of the problem as well as creative solutions to address it.”

These diplomatic efforts include “aligning partners and allies around a framework to counter information manipulation by foreign adversaries,” “training partners to analyze disinformation,” sharing best practices, and “co-chairing the OECD’s new Misinformation and Disinformation Hub, helping governments shift from ad hoc tactics to more holistic policies that enable reliable information to thrive.”

With the Biden-Harris administration silent in the face of the targeting of American platforms, Republicans are bringing forth legislation to combat foreign threats to domestic speech.

Last month, House Republicans introduced two bills – the No Censors on our Shores Act and the No Funding or Enforcement of Censorship Abroad Act – to punish foreign individuals and entities that promote or engage in the censorship of American speech.

A sponsor of the No Censors Act, Rep. Darrell Issa of California, told RCI, “The First Amendment rights of the American people are threatened not only by malign actors in the FBI or State Department – or even the EU, UK, or Brazil – but by the entirety of the Censorship Industrial Complex at home and abroad. Our response must be no less comprehensive, and that’s why Congress can’t look away from a continuing scandal that grows worse with every revelation. We need to be committed and creative if we’re going to win the fight for free speech.”

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/p49Pymf Tyler Durden

Watch: Reporter Goes Nuclear On State Dept Spox On Ukraine, Gaza, Iran Conflicts

Watch: Reporter Goes Nuclear On State Dept Spox On Ukraine, Gaza, Iran Conflicts

In a very rare moment, a journalist who was invited to the State Department’s daily briefing had enough of the US government’s constant foreign policy double-speak, contradictory statements, and war-mongering abroad. The Biden administration has for months been playing a game of nuclear chicken with Russia as it gives Ukraine more and more leeway in striking targets deep in Russian territory. 

This is happening as several wars are already unfolding at once from Ukraine to Gaza to Lebanon, and now a broader war could at any moment erupt between Iran and Israel – yet Washington has persisted in passing out billions in weaponry in these war zones. Escalatory policies persist as Kiev and Tel Aviv are armed to the teeth, and thousands die weekly, and all the while concepts like “negotiations” or “ceasefire” are bad words. There simply seems no ‘climb down’ option on the horizon, and Congress is missing in action, leaving all of this far outside of the American people’s control.

The Grayzone’s Liam Cosgrove, who may soon see his State Dept press credentials revoked, went off on spokesman Matthew Miller, in a one-and-a-half minute segment that’s a thing of beauty. “People are sick of the bullshit here,” Cosgrove exclaims at one point, while a shocked government spokesman tried to shut him down. Watch the exchange unfold below…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 16:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/1HPqSOF Tyler Durden

US Opposes Ceasefire In Lebanon, Urges Israel To ‘Degrade’ Hezbollah

US Opposes Ceasefire In Lebanon, Urges Israel To ‘Degrade’ Hezbollah

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The State Department said Tuesday that it doesn’t want to see a ceasefire in Lebanon and supports the heavy Israeli bombardment of the country to “degrade Hezbollah.”

State Department spokesman Matt Miller was asked about comments from Hezbollah Deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem, who said the group supports efforts by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to reach a ceasefire without mentioning that it must also include a ceasefire in Gaza. “Now that Hezbollah is on the back foot and is getting battered, suddenly, they’ve changed their tune and want a ceasefire,” Miller told reporters.

Via AP

Miller claimed the US “ultimately wants a diplomatic solution” but voiced strong support for Israeli military operations, which have killed more than 1,250 people, including over 100 children. “We support Israel’s efforts to degrade Hezbollah’s capability,” he said.

The US is also calling for Lebanon to hold new presidential elections amid the Israeli bombardment. Lebanon hasn’t had a president since 2022, as the many different factions in parliament haven’t agreed to elect one. Hezbollah’s political wing currently holds 15 seats in the nation’s 128-seat parliament.

“What we want to see come out of this situation ultimately is Lebanon able to break the grip Hezbollah has had on the country … break the stranglehold that Hezbollah has had over the country,” Miller said.

The US is still characterizing the Israeli assault on Lebanon as a “limited incursion” despite the massive bombings in Beirut and across the country.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled on Tuesday that more escalations were coming. In a threatening message to the people of Lebanon, he called for them to “free” the country from Hezbollah or they will face “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza.”

Before Israel launched a strike that killed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the US was calling for a temporary 21-day ceasefire. But the US put no real pressure on Israel to accept the truce since it provided a massive new military aid package as Netanyahu was rejecting the idea of a ceasefire.

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said that Nasrallah agreed to a 21-day ceasefire with Israel just days before he was killed and that the US was informed of his decision. The State Department denied that the US was informed Nasrallah accepted the truce, but CNN later reported that a Western source familiar with the negotiations said Hezbollah had agreed to the ceasefire.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 15:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/xOPhnXe Tyler Durden

FOMC Minutes Show Fed Considerably More Divided Over Size Of Rate Cut

FOMC Minutes Show Fed Considerably More Divided Over Size Of Rate Cut

Since the last FOMC meeting on September 18th, bonds have suffered a bloodbath while gold, stocks, and the dollar are all up modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the apparent dovish pivot, the market’s expectations for rate-cuts (this year and next) has plunged dramatically

Source: Bloomberg

This should not come as a huge surprise as Powell’s raison d’etre for major rate cuts evaporated as US macro data has surged higher, surprising to the upside almost non-stop…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s hard to justify slashing rates any further in the face of that macro backdrop without exposing the ‘political’ decision-making process behind The Fed’s move.

So, now we see the Minutes – what exactly is it that The Fed wants us to believe they are thinking?

Despite there only being one dissent against the 50bps cut (Michelle Bowman), The Fed Minutes suggest that the members are considerably more divided than headlines suggested

  • Given the significant progress made since the Committee first set its target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, a substantial majority of participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. These participants generally observed that such a recalibration of the stance of monetary policy would begin to bring it into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market. They also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy and the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks.

  • Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting and that data over the intermeeting period had provided further evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path toward 2 percent while the labor market continued to cool. However, noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.

  • Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved.

  • A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.

  • A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather than the specific amount of initial easing at this meeting, would be more important in determining the degree of policy restriction. Participants judged that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings.

Breaking down some specific topics…

ECONOMY

  • Participants generally noted it was important to communicate decisions are conditional on evolution of economy, implications for balance of risks and therefore not on a preset course.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

  • Staff outlook for the September meeting was for the economy to remain ‘solid’: though the forecast for growth in H2 24 was ‘marked’ down reflecting softer-than-expected labor indicators.

  • “Those who commented on the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy observed that they believed it to be restrictive, though they expressed a range of views about the degree of restrictiveness.

EMPLOYMENT

  • “…, and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased,”

Finally on INFLATION:

“With regard to the outlook for inflation, almost all participants indicated they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. Participants cited various factors that were likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation. These included a further modest slowing in real GDP growth, in part due to the Committee’s restrictive monetary policy stance; well-anchored inflation expectations; waning pricing power; increases in productivity; and a softening in world commodity prices”

Several participants noted that nominal wage growth was continuing to slow, with a few participants citing signs that it was set to decline further. These signs included lower rates of increases in cyclically sensitive wages and data indicating that job switchers were no longer receiving a wage premium over other employees. A couple of participants remarked that, with wages being a relatively large portion of business costs in the services sector, that sector’s disinflation process would be particularly assisted by slower nominal wage growth.”

“In addition, several participants observed that, with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of general inflation pressures in the near future. With regard to housing services prices, some participants suggested that a more rapid disinflationary trend might emerge fairly soon, reflecting the slower pace of rent increases faced by new tenants.”

This with home prices and rents at all time high, and Longshoremen just getting a 62% wage hike

ForexLive’s Greg Michalowski highlights the broad use of the same quantity identifiers in the Minutes:

1. A Few

  • A few participants suggested that firms remained reluctant to lay off workers after having difficulty obtaining employees earlier in the post-pandemic period.
  • A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.
  • A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather than the specific amount of initial easing at this meeting, would be more important in determining the degree of policy restriction.

2. Some

  • Some participants noted, however, that labor market conditions remained solid, as layoffs had been limited and initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits had stayed low.
  • Some participants stressed that, rather than using layoffs to lower their demand for labor, businesses had instead been taking steps such as posting fewer openings, reducing hours, or making use of attrition.
  • Some participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a stalling or a reversal of the progress on inflation.
  • Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting.

3. Several

  • Several participants noted that nominal wage growth was continuing to slow.
  • Several participants emphasized the importance of continuing to use disaggregated data or information provided by business contacts as a check on readings on labor market conditions obtained from aggregate data.
  • Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a stalling or a reversal of the progress on inflation.
  • Several participants observed that with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of general inflation pressures in the near future.
  • Several participants discussed the importance of communicating that the ongoing reduction in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet could continue for some time even as the Committee reduced its target range for the federal funds rate.
  • Several participants remarked that reducing policy restraint too late or too little could risk unduly weakening economic activity and employment.

4. Many

  • Many participants remarked that the recent inflation data were consistent with reports received from business contacts, who had indicated that their pricing power was limited or diminishing and that consumers were increasingly seeking discounts.
  • Many participants also observed that inflation developments in the second and third quarters of 2024 suggested that the stronger-than-anticipated inflation readings in the first quarter had been only a temporary interruption of progress toward 2 percent.
  • Many participants emphasized that they expected that real GDP would grow at roughly its trend rate over the next few years.
  • Many participants observed that the evaluation of labor market developments had been challenging, with increased immigration, revisions to reported payroll data, and possible changes in the underlying growth rate of productivity cited as complicating factors.
  • Many participants remarked that the recent inflation data were consistent with reports from businesses indicating that pricing power was diminishing.

5. Most

  • Most respondents had a modal expectation of a 25 basis point cut at this meeting.
  • Most survey respondents did not appear to be concerned about an economic downturn in either the near or medium term.
  • Most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased.

6. Almost All

  • Almost all participants judged that recent monthly readings had been consistent with inflation returning sustainably to 2 percent.
  • Almost all participants expressed greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
  • Almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation had diminished.
  • Almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation had diminished, and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased.
  • Almost all members agreed that to appropriately reflect cumulative developments related to inflation and the balance of risks, the postmeeting statement should note that they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.

7. A Substantial Majority

  • A substantial majority of participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.

Read the full Minutes below…

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 14:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/lXxQ7Gp Tyler Durden

Analyzing Agency REITs

Analyzing Agency REITs

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Numerous reader requests following our article, Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener, prompted us to write this follow-up with more detail about how to analyze agency REITs. This article doesn’t recommend specific agency REITs, but it does lay out some of the fundamental basics of the largest publicly traded agency REITs. In doing so, this analysis and the prior article provide a solid foundation for further evaluating agency REITs.

Before diving in, it’s worth noting that most agency REITs offer preferred shares. While we do not discuss them in this article, preferred shares may also prove rewarding and less risky in the current bull-steepening interest rate environment. 

(Disclosure: RIA Advisors has a position in NLY and REM in its client portfolios.)

Managing A REIT

An agency REIT is only as good as its portfolio management team. As we wrote in Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener, the portfolio management team has to buy rewarding assets and issue appropriate liabilities to fund the investments, but it must also constantly hedge the portfolio for interest rate and mortgage spread risk. Furthermore, they actively trade derivatives to transform the terms and conditions of their liabilities.

Due to the leverage employed by the agency REITs, a firm making poor hedging decisions could be forced to sell assets or issue liabilities at inopportune times. Poor management can result in reduced or missed dividend payments. 

Conversely, the costs of over-hedging can eat dearly into the REITs profits, resulting in minimal dividends. Finding the right balance between assets, liabilities, and hedges is a tall task. The portfolio manager’s skills in managing the portfolio can make a big difference in returns when comparing REITs.

We cannot quantify portfolio management skill levels, but we share information on each REIT to help you better understand some differences between the largest agency REITs.

Evaluating Agency REITs

Due to the unique agency REIT business model, evaluation requires tools different from those commonly used for stocks. Agency REIT investors prefer metrics like price to book value, leverage, interest rate spreads, dividend reliability, and value at risk. Earnings, sales, and traditional margin and valuation calculations are not as helpful.

The following table shares information on the top publicly traded agency REITs. Further sections below focus on three factors that help determine risk and investor returns. The tables in those sections show the latest respective data, the ten-year ranges, and the size of the ranges to provide better context for the current figures.

Price To Book Value

The price to book value tells investors how much portfolio value or equity (assets minus liabilities) they own per share. The ratio varies due to the whims of investors. Investors should prefer a price-to-book value ratio below 1.0 as they essentially buy the portfolio for less than 100% of its value. However, a price-to-book value ratio well below 1.0 may indicate trouble.

Due to the volatile nature of agency REIT assets, liabilities, and hedges, the book value is in constant motion. Unfortunately, most agency REITs only report the book value quarterly. Accordingly, caution is warranted because the book value is always stale, while price changes are current. In other words, there are only four days a year when the price-to-book value ratio is correct. There are ways to estimate book value to help overcome this problem.

Agency REITs are incentivized to grow as a larger portfolio creates more income for the company executives and the portfolio management team. Growing entails issuing more equity.

Agency REITs often offer new shares to the market when the price-to-book value is above 1.0. Doing so allows them to raise more money per share than the net portfolio value. New issuance often causes the stock price to decline toward a price-to-book ratio of 1.0. When the price-to-book ratio is below 1.0, issuing shares is not as economically beneficial to the REIT; however, it adds value to existing shareholders.

The table below shows the latest price-to-book value of the eight largest publicly traded agency REITs. In most cases, these are about three months old. Since bond yields fell over the last few months and the spread of mortgages to liabilities tightened, the portfolio values are likely higher than last reported. That said, many share prices of the stocks also increased in value.

Leverage

To better appreciate the importance of leverage, we share the following simplified summary of the creation of an agency REIT. It is from Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener.

Hypothetically, let’s start a new agency REIT to help you appreciate how they operate.

  • We solicit $1 billion from equity investors.

  • A significant portion of the $1 billion is used to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

  • We then borrow $4 billion from a bank using the $1 billion of MBS as collateral.

  • The proceeds from the $4 billion loan are also used to purchase MBS.

  • Our new REIT has about $5 billion of MBS against $1 billion of equity and $4 billion of debt.

  • As a result, the REIT has 5x leverage.

The amount of leverage is an essential gauge of risk. If, in the example above, the REIT borrowed $50 billion with only $1 billion of equity, resulting in 50x leverage. A 2% adverse move in the portfolio would wipe out the entire equity value. Conversely, 5x leverage takes a 20% loss before equity holders are wiped out.

Not only is the amount of leverage essential to track, but how and when the leverage changes can help us gauge the portfolio manager’s stance toward present risks. Also of equal importance to those gauging risk is the hedging activity. Specifically, how is the portfolio management team using derivatives to transform liabilities and manage risk?

Solid hedging skills can partially offset the risks of high leverage. Conversely, a REIT may have low leverage but still poses high risk due to poor hedges.

Dividend Reliability

Given the outsized dividend yields on agency REITs, the reliability of the REIT’s dividend is important. Like other key metrics, we should compare the current dividend to its historical range to appreciate how it can potentially change in favorable or adverse environments.

An Agency REIT Alternative

If you are uncomfortable picking specific agency REITs, we recommend diversifying among many to reduce idiosyncratic portfolio risks.

One way is via the iShares Mortgage Real ETF (REM). The ETF’s two largest holdings, accounting for over 25%, are NLY and AGNC. Bear in mind some of its holdings are not agency REITs. Accordingly, they may contain assets that the government does not guarantee.

Summary

Without a background in managing a portfolio of mortgages, analyzing agency REITs can be challenging. However, putting in more homework than is typical for a stock investment can provide investors with returns often uncorrelated with the broader market, thus offering a unique form of diversification. If you decide to research agency REITs, we highly recommend you read their quarterly and annual reports, which are incredibly detailed and insightful.

Agency REITs are not for buy-and-hold investors. They tend to perform well in specific economic and interest rate environments and poorly in others. We believe the current bullish steepening shift in the yield curve could offer investors opportunities with the agency REIT sector. However, we stress REIT portfolios can gain value while its shares lose value.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 13:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Fy8wEQd Tyler Durden

Near Record Foreign Demand For Tailing 10Y Auction

Near Record Foreign Demand For Tailing 10Y Auction

After yesterday’s ugly, tailing 3Y auction, which saw a plunge in foreign demand as a result of the recent spike in yields as faith in the Fed’s easing plans has been deeply shaken in recent weeks, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in 10Y paper (in the form of reopening of 9Y-10M cusip LF6), in a sale that was substandard at best.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.066%, up sharply from last month’s 3.648% (which was the lowest since May 2023), and tailed the When Issued 4.062% by 0.4bps, a big reversal from last month’s 1.4bps through auction (but nowhere near as bad as the 3.1bps tail in August).

The bid to cover was subpar, sliding to 2.481 from 2.637 in September, and was also below the 6-auction average 2.50.

Curiously, the internals were not bad at all, perhaps as foreign central banks sought to load up on US paper now that yields are back over 4%, and the Indirect takedown rose to 77.6%from 761%, and just shy of the all time high hit in Feb 2023 when indirects took down just under 80%.

And with Dealers awarded 13.9%, that left Directs holding just 8.4% of the auction, the lowest since Nov 2018.

Overall, this was a curious auction, one which saw near record foreign demand yet where the metrics were subpar at best. Which is probably why after rising to a session high 4.07% just before the auction, yields were unchanged after the result. Meanwhile, stocks continue to push ever higher to new all time highs, completely obvious of the latest surge in yields.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 13:23

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/x8LhiOJ Tyler Durden

Russia & Turkey Block Discord Over Content Violations

Russia & Turkey Block Discord Over Content Violations

In the last 24 hours the governments of Russia and Turkey have effectively banned the Discord social media platform. Both countries cited the failure of the US-based messaging app to clean up illegal content.

Roskomnadzor, Russia’s censorship body, specifically said Discord is blocked for “violation of laws” and that the company had already been warned been times, which included a previous fine for failure to conform.

Compliance is required to “prevent the use of the messenger for terrorist and extremist services, recruitment of citizens to commit them, for drug sales, and in connection with unlawful information posting,” an official statement said.

Via Shutterstock

Roskomnadzor had in the recent past ordered Discord to immediately remove about a thousand pieces of “illegal content.” It received several violations in September, leading to the new ban.

But Western media is also alleging this is part of Russia’s ongoing crackdown on speech and freedom of expression:

In addition to actually dangerous organizations, the Russian censorship laws target the opposition and non-governmental bodies critical of the Kremlin as “extremist” to limit their reach. Pro-Ukraine messaging and LGBT content are also banned under Russian laws.

Russia’s announcement came Tuesday, but merely hours later, on Wednesday, Turkey unveiled its own ban.

Turkey has said it moved against the platform to “protect” children and young people from online abuse. Turkey’s BTK communications authority referred to a court finding in Ankara which raised “suspicion” the app has been used for “the sexual abuse of children and obscenity”.

“We are determined to protect our young people and our children… from harmful and criminal publications on social media and the internet,” Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said.

Additionally, AFP writes that “Turkish media reports said some Discord users had posted messages hailing Friday’s double murder of two 19-year-old women in Istanbul while others had been using the platform to harass under-age girls.”

Starting in August video game platform Roblox was banned in Turkey over immensely controversial content, including pornographic scenes, which authorities have blasted as harmful to children.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/09/2024 – 13:20

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/xT8pOiN Tyler Durden