Month: October 2024

Authored by Daniel Ramirez-Escudero via CoinTelegraph.com,

While some say that prediction markets are a risk to democracy, others think they could serve the public by offering valuable insights and risk management tools.

Despite recent confrontations with regulators, election markets can provide more accurate insights into public sentiment than polls, according to industry observers.

In May 2024, the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a rule to ban derivatives used to bet on the outcome of US elections and other major real-world events. 

The CFTC’s proposal drove US-based regulated prediction market platform Kalshi to take the commission to court. Columbia District Judge Jia Cobb rejected the CFTCs proposal, stating that “Kalshi’s contracts do not involve unlawful activity or gaming. They involve elections, which are neither.”

The CFTC attempted to appeal the decision, with an appellate court even imposing a temporary block on the market, but the court denied the CFTC proposal on Oct 2, and the platform has resumed trading. 

Regulators’ initial concern was over the potential for manipulation, but some industry observers state that prediction markets may make better metrics of public opinion than traditional polls. 

Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, commented on the CFTC portal’s proposal by claiming that “event contract markets are a valuable public good for which there is no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for any nefarious purposes that the Commission alleges.” 

Crane told Cointelegraph that the US government trying to severely limit the availability of election and other betting markets to US citizens is “acting against the interests of its own people in favor of limited freedoms and censorship.” 

The statistics professor believes US regulators operate with “overly restrictive regulations” that lead to “perverse incentives and market distortions” that interfere with the market’s natural price discovery mechanism. 

He explained that the information contained in the market prices cannot be as easily controlled as polls and media narratives close to elections and other political events.  He believes “there is a desire to control the public’s access to this information.”

Crane claimed that prediction markets for elections, such as Kalshi or the decentralized crypto-betting platform Polymarket, should be legal and widespread as they can offer several valuable aspects for the public.

Prediction markets can be more accurate than public polls

In 2018 and 2020, Crane published two peer-reviewed studies in which he compared the forecasting accuracy of the prediction market platform PredictIt against the poll data aggregator FiveThirtyEight from statistician Nate Silver. 

In both cases, the research concluded that the betting prediction market was more accurate than Silver’s forecast across presidential, senate, house and governor races. 

“Sentiment is what polls measure, accuracy and truth are what markets seek to measure.”

Crane highlighted the key difference between polls and prediction markets: Polls ask people who they want to win, and markets ask people who they think will win through an economic incentive model, which rewards them for accurate analysis. 

He stressed that traders don’t care about which candidate other people want to win; they care about who will win, making markets more accurate.

If a model continually fluctuates from 40% to 60% back to 40%, etc. while the underlying market hasn’t really moved, it’s a pretty clear sign the model is just noise.

See below. https://t.co/wDsyXeqHMr

— Harry Crane (@HarryDCrane) September 29, 2024

Grant Ferguson, director of public outreach for the Department of Political Science at Texas Christian University, told Cointelegraph that prediction markets could be superior to polls as real money leads individuals to set aside their personal preferences and “think logically about what is true, not what they want to be true.”

Crane said that election markets have two primary advantages: hedging and information aggregation.

He explained that these markets allow individuals and businesses to hedge risks to one-off, isolated outcomes, such as the result of an important election. 

When companies or individuals have less uncertainty or risk to worry about, they can operate more efficiently and confidently as they can prepare beforehand, which benefits the broader economy. Essentially, allowing hedging reduces the negative impacts of unforeseen events across the entire economy, Crane said.

Crane concluded that prediction markets’ higher accuracy is due to sounder research involved in betting markets. Prediction markets “aggregate diverse pieces of information to arrive at the single most reliable forecast of elections,” motivated by the economic incentive involved with a bet.

“The economic incentives promote participation from informed traders.  Informed traders, in effect, share their information with the market in return for profits gained from being correct.” 

The most accurate analysis of the available data will award the participants from the wagers. However, Crane conveyed that the information these traders share benefits everyone, including most of the general public who do not participate in these markets, by “providing them with a reliable and objective forecast of important events in the public interest.”

Polymarket growth positioned it as a trusted metric for US elections

As the US election looms with its uncertainties and geopolitical implications, prediction markets surrounding the 2024 presidential race are particularly hot.

Polymarket offers a number of different betting pools, ranging from science to crypto to pop culture. But the market that has provided the most volume and mainstream media attention is the bet on the outcome of the US elections. Polymarket’s pool on the US election has surpassed $1 billion in volume, constituting 80% of Polymarket’s total volume.

Polymarket % election volume weekly. Source: Richard Chen/Dune Analytics

Crane thinks that “any betting platform with significant volume and without significant restrictions to participation should be a reliable metric” for forecasting elections and other major events. Polymarket’s rapid growth in 2024 has earned it a place on the Bloomberg Terminal as a metric for tracking the US election outcome.

We are in the process of adding @Polymarket data to WSL ELECTION! pic.twitter.com/aNM087bcwS

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) August 29, 2024

Despite Kalshi’s victory against the CFTC, Polymarket has decided to remain offshore. It stopped operating in the US after it reached a $1.2 million settlement with the CFTC in 2022 for failing to register with the agency. Since then, Polymarket doesn’t officially operate in the US. Us users are blocked from the site with geo-fencing.

Crane believes that Polymarket data on the US election outcome remains relevant even though there, in principle, aren’t any US citizens involved in the betting pool. He said that the relevant information for forecasting the US election is available internationally. 

On top of that, wager participants could effortlessly gain access to expertise by hiring US-based consultants or partners. He said that there is no validity in claiming that US citizens are the best-qualified to predict the outcome of the elections.

Despite Polymarket being based offshore and blocking US citizens from its platform, CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam has warned that if their “footprint” in the US becomes big enough, they should register their derivative contracts or risk facing enforcement actions. 

The dark side of the election markets

Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy for nonprofit and non-partisan financial organization Better Markets, told Cointelegraph that prediction markets may be understood as a public good, but “only under certain conditions.” 

He noted the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), a group of real-money prediction markets/futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business, as an example.

Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes, therefore its volume is very low. Dumas mentioned that IEM demonstrates that an adequate regulated market limited to small-scale academic or research purposes can offer valuable information that enhances public understanding of election dynamics.

Dumas believes that larger betting markets, such as Kalshi or Polymarket, could raise concerns about the commercialization of elections, undermining public trust. 

He explained that for prediction markets to be beneficial, “they must adhere to strict oversight and the academic, non-speculative model.” 

Dumas said that there is low public confidence in democracy among US citizens since former President Donald Trump claimed the 2020 elections were “rigged” and “fraudulent.” 

He believes these accusations led to widespread belief among many voters that the election system is untrustworthy. In this context, he said that the risk of “introducing predictive markets could amplify these fears,” making it easier for individuals to claim that financial speculation is driving electoral outcomes, thus further undermining public faith in the fairness of elections.

“Betting on elections diminishes the civic duty of voting and reduces it to a financial transaction, which could erode public trust in the democratic system.”

For Dumas, the risks to election integrity stem from potential manipulation, public distrust and the ethical implications of turning elections into betting opportunities. The US allows bets on sports or casinos. However, Dumas believes that US elections should be treated differently “due to their direct role in upholding democracy.”

Having the freedom to create wagers on any topic has raised an ethical debate about betting limits. 

On Oct. 1, as the Israelí conflict expanded into Lebanon, Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum and Polymarket investor, responded to concerns about the morality of including bets related to wars.

I support these existing. The point of polymarket is that from the perspective of traders it’s a betting site, but from the perspective of viewers it’s a news site. There’s all kinds of people (incl elites) on twitter and the internet making harmful and inaccurate predictions…

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) October 1, 2024

Buterin said that the dividing line on whether someone should place a bet is if the market acts as a “primary incentive for people to do bad things so they can insider trade on them.” 

The question remains: Do prediction markets influence behavior, or are they merely accurate forecasting tools based on existing data? Place your bets.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

While Americans are literally and figuratively drowning thanks to the incompetence of the Biden Harris regime, Kamala Harris spent her weekend appearing on a sex podcast.

Yes, really.

Harris appeared on “Call Her Daddy,” which basically features vacuous celebrities talking about what they like to do in the sack while basement dwelling nerd listeners giggle and get off on it.

This is what Kamala Harris is doing while bodies are still being found in NC.

A sex podcast. pic.twitter.com/XDAl73BA6G

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 6, 2024

Hilariously, the host Alex Cooper asked Harris why she doesn’t do actual interviews with news organisations, and instead is appearing on this frivolous distraction.

As usual, Kamala couldn’t give a coherent response.

Kamala delivers a giant, incoherent word salad when asked why she decided to do a podcast entitled “Call Her Daddy” but not substantive interviews where she’s actually pressed on the radical positions she holds pic.twitter.com/L435Nl4Vzv

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 6, 2024

It went downhill from there.

Kamala on lowering costs: “It’s a very real issue and we need to take it seriously, and I do take it very seriously.”

THEN WHY HASN’T SHE DONE IT ALREADY? pic.twitter.com/Sv8YcuuE60

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 6, 2024

“Why should we trust you?” Cooper asked, to which Harris responded “Look at my career to know what I care about.”

Isn’t that the exact reason that no one trusts her?

HOST: “Why should we trust you?”

KAMALA: “Look at my career to know what I care about.”

(By that metric, Kamala cares about illegal aliens, 70-80% tax rates, sex changes for prison inmates, banning gas-powered vehicles, ending fracking, and shipping jobs overseas) pic.twitter.com/7yBTOSVWSe

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 6, 2024

NEW: Kamala Harris’ appearance on ‘Call Her Daddy’ turns into massive flop as the YouTube segment barely received 100k views in the first 16 hours with mostly negative reactions.

At the time of this post, the segment on YouTube has 4.9k likes and 11k dislikes, meaning it has a… pic.twitter.com/XyEbTCZJ45

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 7, 2024

The reason she’s on this and not doing a real interview, is that she still has nothing of any substance to say.

Kamala regurgitates lines she frequently uses in her speeches and interviews to bloviate about how she got to decide if “somebody was charged with a crime or went to prison.”

All she has are tired, recycled platitudes. pic.twitter.com/1d3s7ivLVk

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 6, 2024

Even if this was pre recorded, didn’t her handlers consider that it might not be the best time to put it out?

Kamala was “feeling great” as Americans clung to their rooftops in desperation amid the botched federal hurricane response.

Kamala is in this race for one reason only: herself. She’s a disgusting, selfish person. pic.twitter.com/EnhOC3sAi8

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 7, 2024

Would Trump be laughing and chatting about tampons while Americans are destitute and begging for help?

LEFT: Kamala Harris recording an interview on the sex podcast “Call Her Daddy.”

RIGHT: Hurricane victims pleading with their government to HELP after losing their loved ones, their homes, and their livelihoods.

That tells you all you need to know about Kamala’s priorities. pic.twitter.com/sQH2k9jVsW

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 6, 2024

This is not a serious person.

She will never protect you. She will never protect your family. She will never be taken seriously by world leaders. She will never be anything more than an instrument for unelected power with its own agenda. https://t.co/8ESXy4WomG

— Stephen Miller (@StephenM) October 6, 2024

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A federal judge in San Francisco just handed a big victory to Epic Games in its long-running antitrust challenge to the technology giant’s app store.

Judge James Donato ordered Alphabet’s Google to overhaul its mobile app business to give Android users more options to download apps and to pay for transactions within them, following a jury verdict last year for “Fortnite” maker Epic Games.

Alphabet must lift restrictions that prevent developers from setting up rival marketplaces that compete with its Google Play Store, upending the search giant’s dominance in the lucrative Android app market.

This result sent GOOGL shares down over 2%…

And that dragged the major US equity indices to the lows of the day…

Donato said at an earlier hearing that he would establish a three-person compliance and technical committee to implement and monitor the injunction.

Google had urged Donato to reject Epic’s proposed reforms, arguing they were costly, overly restrictive and could harm consumer privacy and security. The judge mostly dismissed those arguments during an August hearing.

“You’re going to end up paying something to make the world right after having been found to be a monopolist,” he told Google’s lawyers.

In a separate antitrust case in Washington, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta on Aug. 5 ruled for the U.S. Justice Department and said Google had illegally monopolized Web search, spending billions to become the internet’s default search engine.

The judge’s decision is likely to accelerate the weakening of app store controls held by tech giants Google and Apple that have been under fire from regulators and lawmakers around the world.

By Mary Stevens of Campus Reform

A California public university has officially launched a new update to its curriculum that will force all students to take at least one course on climate change.

Since the start of the current fall semester, the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) has begun mandating the “Climate Change Education Requirement” for brand new undergraduates. UCSD announced the curriculum update in November. 

“A knowledge of climate change is required of all candidates for a Bachelor’s degree who are admitted to UC San Diego as a first-time, first-year student in Fall 2024 or thereafter,” the school website notes.

UCSD states that the Jane Teranes Climate Change Education Requirement “is designed to empower our students with the knowledge and skills needed to confront the urgent global challenge of climate change.”

Students have an extensive list of courses to choose from in order to fulfill the requirement, including: “Documenting Climate Change: Past and Present,” “Politics of Environmental Change,” “Climate Justice,” “The Astronomy of Climate Change,” “Gender and Climate Justice,” “Indigenous Approaches to Climate Change,” “Literature & the Environment,” “Critical Writing: Climate Change,” and “Environmentalism in Arts and Media.”

“UC San Diego has a long history of leadership in climate research and education, and the Jane Teranes Climate Change Education Requirement marks a new path forward,” Chancellor Pradeep Khosla told UC San Diego Today. “Whether undergraduates are majoring in STEM, the humanities, arts, social sciences or any other field, this requirement will equip them with a strong understanding of climate change and how they can contribute to meaningful solutions.” 

Many of the classes that fall under the Climate Change Education Requirement also overlap with Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) courses. 

The new requirement was inspired by UC San Diego’s DEI Requirement, which began in 2011. The DEI Requirement is “designed to critically engage students with topics on race, power, and anti-racist efforts that meaningfully challenge structural racism,” according to UC San Diego Today.

“We took the best learnings from the DEI requirement—which [Jane Teranes] was also involved with—ensuring that the requirement does not add additional time to degree for students,” Muir College Provost Wayne Yang told the publication. “The climate requirement incentivizes and encourages faculty to integrate climate change education into their upper division courses, and thus deepens the curriculum by focusing on what students can actually do about climate change from their disciplines. Importantly, it treats climate change as an interdisciplinary issue.” 

This is not the first time that UCSD has aggressively pushed a climate change agenda. In May, the school invited former Vice President Al Gore as its commencement speaker, noting his commitment “to raising global awareness around and helping to mitigate the impacts of climate change — a commitment UC San Diego shares.”

Similarly, Columbia University hosted a week-long program in August in order to train middle school teachers on methods to instruct on climate change, with a focus on “culturally-sensitive learning.”

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Ukraine will not extend its gas transit agreement with Russia after its expiration, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced during a joint press conference with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024, in Kyiv, Ukraine. (Leon Neal/Pool via AP)

The decision is part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to curb Russian energy revenues, which Kyiv claims are used to fund the ongoing war.

“Our strategic goal is to impose sanctions on the Russian gas molecule, to deprive the Kremlin of profits from the sale of hydrocarbons, for which the aggressor finances the war,” Shmyhal declared in a statement on his Telegram account.

The current transit agreement, which allows Russian gas to flow to Europe via Ukraine, is set to expire in 2024. Its non-renewal could have significant impacts on Europe’s energy landscape, particularly for countries still dependent on Russian supplies.

He called on all European nations to “completely abandon oil and gas from the Russian Federation,” urging a united front against Russia’s energy exports.

Shmyhal acknowledged the challenges faced by countries like Slovakia and Hungary, which remain heavily reliant on Russian gas. “We understand the acute dependence of some countries, in particular Slovakia, on this resource. But we count on a gradual diversification of supplies,” he said.

Despite Ukraine’s decision not to renew the transit deal, Shmyhal affirmed his country’s commitment to its international obligations.

“At the same time, Ukraine is ready to continue fulfilling its obligations in accordance with the Association Agreement with the European Union and the Energy Charter Treaty,” he wrote, signaling Ukraine’s ongoing cooperation with the EU in energy matters.

This commitment, however, has been questioned in recent months, with Ukraine blocking the “Friendship” oil pipeline from Russia, which delivers oil to Slovakia, Hungary, and Czechia. The move threatened to plunge the Central and Eastern European countries into an energy crisis and calls from the respective governments to reverse the decision fell upon deaf ears in Brussels.

“They are punishing us for our support for peace, and now they are attacking our energy security. And it is quite possible that this was not initiated by Ukraine alone, but was helped by the people of Brussels, or even by the pro-war American Democrats,” Tamás Menczer, the Hungarian communications director of Fidesz-KDNP, said at the time.

After Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó threatened court proceedings, Oleksiy Chernisov, the president of Ukrainian energy giant Naftogaz, responded by claiming that there had been no reduction in supplies — a remark that was heavily disputed by Budapest.

“I spoke with the Ukrainian foreign minister yesterday, and he said they allow every oil transfer through, but it’s not true. The European Commission has three days to execute our request, after which we will bring the issue to court,” he added in late July.

Read more here…

What could be some of the best jobs for the future? To answer that question, you’d need to know which jobs will be in high demand as the U.S. and global economies shift.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Janna Ross, uses data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to highlight the roles that are projected to have the most job growth over the next decade.

Trends Within Job Growth

Overall, the BLS estimates that there will be a net growth of 6.7 million new jobs from 2023 to 2033. Home health and personal care aides are expected to make up 12% of this total.

In fact, with an aging population, four out of the top 10 occupations by job growth are related to healthcare.

Apart from healthcare, roles within the food service industry are also expected to grow. The BLS projects that population and income growth will result in greater consumer demand for prepared food. Unfortunately, these roles currently pay far below the overall U.S. median wage of $48,060.

The Best Careers for the Next 10 Years?

Luckily, many of the positions with high job growth also have above-median pay. For instance, software developers earn just over $132,000 per year. The BLS expects that there will be increased demand for software for AI, robotics, cybersecurity, and electronics powered by the Internet of Things.

Financial managers, ninth on the list, earn more than triple the U.S. median wage. These positions are typically responsible for analyzing data and advising senior managers on ways to maximize profits. Some examples are controllers or treasurers.

One specialty, risk management, is expected to be in high demand as institutions put an increased focus on stability amid banking failures.

To see which jobs will have less demand, check out this graphic on the occupations projected to see the most job cuts in the next decade.

By Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank

A Year On

Israel today marks the first anniversary of the attack by Hamas. Around 1,200 people were killed on that day and around 250 hostages were taken, some of whom remain in captivity.  In the ensuing assault on Gaza, tens of thousands have died, according to Palestinian officials, and the world continues to live in the shadow of fear of an escalating regional conflict. The BBC is reporting this morning that Israel’s raids into Lebanon appear to have intensified.  Yesterday, Israel’s defense minister was reported as stating that the country’s response to last week’s Iranian missile attack on Israel would come “in the manner of our choosing, at the time and place of our choosing” adding that “at the moment, everything is on the table.”

Spoke with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant today and asked about retaliation plans to the Iranian ballistic missile attack. I asked specially about oil infrastructure, nuclear sites, etc.

“At the moment, everything is on the table,” he told me.

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) October 6, 2024

As the market continues to await Israel’s response to last week’s Iranian missile strike, oil prices have edged below Friday’s highs. Last week’s spike in Brent prices was the largest since January 2023 as concerns about Iranian involvement in the conflict sparked concerns about potential supply issues.  Reports that Iran has re-directed oil shipments to China because of Western sanctions means that any impact on the oil price from tomorrow’s re-opening of Chinese markets will be watched carefully. Chinese markets have been closed for a week-long holiday since October 1. Notwithstanding further signs of escalation in the Middle East conflict, risk appetite was buoyed on Friday by signs of continued resilience in the US economy.

Friday’s US labor report put paid to US recession fears and most remaining hopes that the Fed could follow up September’s rate cut with another 50 bps move next month. US equity indices closed in the green on Friday, though futures have moved lower this morning. The Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that 254K jobs were created in September well above the 150K market consensus.  Additionally, the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1% while average earnings reported a stronger than expected 0.4% m/m increase. The earnings component was interesting considering Fed Chair Powell’s August statement that “it is unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressure any time soon.” This had been interpreted by the market as meaning that inflation risks were no longer the focus of policymakers and attention had been firmly switched to the labor component of the Fed’s dual mandate.

Not all Fed officials share Powell’s confidence on the inflation front. Bowman recently commented that price pressures remain “uncomfortably above the committee’s 2% goal” while Barken repeated that it was too early to declare victory on inflation. Indeed, last week’s rise in oil prices, if sustained, would bring a fresh inflation risk. That said, Friday’s reopening of East Coast and Gulf Coast ports (at least for now), does remove another potential inflation shock.

Both Treasury yields and the USD rose to their highest levels since August on the back of Friday’s payrolls report as market expectations switched to a more moderate pace of Fed easing in the coming months. The confluence of both economic and geopolitical news meant it was difficult to assess with precision how much of the move may have been related to safe-haven demand. Even so, the market is facing the next round of US data with far more confidence about the relative strength of the US economy.

While mainstream polling has Donald Trump and Kamala Harris “essentially tied” across seven key battleground states, betting markets – which can be more accurate than public polls according to Rutgers statistics professor Harry Crane, have shown a massive and recent surge for Trump.

According to Polymarket, late last week Trump began surging in Michigan, while picking up a Monday bump in Arizona and Pennsylvania.

According to The Hill, Harris’ lack of traction with unionized blue-collar workers ‘has emerged as one of her biggest challenges’ when it comes to winning key states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania.

“Trump’s tariffs and get-rid-of-the-immigrants [message] is a very attractive kind of proposition to people who feel like their jobs were taken abroad, and Trump gets some credit from union guys for breaking with the free-trade consensus,” said progressive activist Bob Borosage, who says Harris needs to spend more time promoting her economic agenda to working-class voters. (lol)

We noted the shift in Michigan late last week, which continued through the weekend.

Kamala’s Katrina moment?

Remarkable shift in online betting toward Trump. Kamala in danger of losing all three battleground states where she still has a lead (NV, MI, WI) as PA moves deeper into Trump’s camp. Real-time odds from Polymarket. https://t.co/2u8lDM6Pyp https://t.co/RUedqKmO9I pic.twitter.com/1Az2EStNBo

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 5, 2024

Even the NY Times notes that Harris’ edge in Pennsylvania in mainstream polling could be fake news, as “The poll average could even be so stable in part because many pollsters are using heavy-handed statistical techniques that reduce the variance of their results from poll to poll but that increase the risk of systematic errors,” adding “Systematic polling errors — in which one side does better than expected, across the board — have been common in recent cycles.”

Meanwhile back at the ranch, Ipsos polling from late last week of the seven swing states reveal Trump doing better than Harris in various key metrics.

For starters, battleground voters are more than twice as likely to see the vice president as in thrall to the political establishment than they are the former president.

Thirty-five percent of respondents believe Harris is part of the current system, while just 16% make the same assertion about Trump.

And though voters believe Harris is the establishment candidate, they also discount her lack of experience compared with the former president, again by a more than 2-to-1 spread.

A whopping 47% of respondents credit Trump with more experience; just 21% believe Harris is the more seasoned selection — a seemingly damning dismissal of her nearly four years in office.

Beyond the impressions, a number of issues play to the former president’s strength, not least of which is immigration.

By 48% to 33%, battleground voters trust Trump over Harris to handle the undocumented aliens whose presence has multiplied amid a porous border and diffident enforcement from the Biden-Harris administration. With 1 in 3 voters seeing immigration as a top-three issue, this is a meaningful metric.

On war and terrorism, Trump is also the pick: 42% of voters favor his approach, while 32% believe Harris is better suited to handle global conflict. –NY Post

And here’s Polymarket…

As Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida, Mountain communities in North Carolina have been absolutely devastated by Hurricane Helene, which initially made landfall in Florida on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 – and had not been expected to hit the mountainous regions with such ferocity.

But as Helene moved north, it gathered strength, fueled by unprecedented rainfall that had accumulated after a two-month drought, defying traditional forecasting models.

Local meteorologists and residents struggled to grasp the magnitude of the disaster that has left more than 200 people dead and hundreds more missing. “When you start talking about really specific impacts, it’s hard to have imagination ahead of time that something this extreme could have the impact it did,” Steve Wilkinson, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg, told The Guardian.

The devastation was not limited to North Carolina. Neighboring states saw similar fates, with towns obliterated and critical infrastructure like Interstate 40 and I-26 severely damaged, disrupting major transportation routes.

Today’s update from our team in North Carolina

“The public doesn’t understand how bad it is for these rural parts of North Carolina. Their roads are completely gone and have been replaced by the river. It’s going to take YEARS to try and fix.

We delivered supplies today to… pic.twitter.com/USIDZutCgG

— Hodgetwins (@hodgetwins) October 7, 2024

As the Epoch Times notes further, Asheville, NC has been particularly hard hit.

In most places, the floodwater is gone, leaving large brown spots on the ground, but the suffering it brought persists. The community faces a cascade of problems for which there is no simple solution.

The Water Shortage

Perhaps the greatest irony of Helene is the dire lack of potable water after the floods. The storm completely destroyed Asheville’s water supply system. Water mains and underground pipes were swept away as the ground itself was removed by the torrent. Not a single building in town can access running water, and citizens survive by the thousands of gallons of water being shipped in every day.

“We need portable water … nobody can flush their toilets, nobody can take a shower, nobody can do laundry. We have no water and the infrastructure for that water is totally destroyed,” Dr. Carly Brown, a primary care physician in Asheville’s River Arts District, told The Epoch Times.

“I haven’t had a shower since last Wednesday. I’m hearing horrible things about [others],” Wendy Feinberg, a 77-year-old retired schoolteacher in Asheville, told The Epoch Times.

“There’s no running water in all of Asheville,” Ryan Austin, an Asheville local and disaster relief worker, told The Epoch Times. “Plenty of people are bringing in bottled water for drinking but there’s no way to use water for [anything else].”

The lack of water has been particularly dire at hospitals and shelters, where many injured and homeless citizens are taking refuge. Mission Hospital, a level-2 trauma center with 1,200 beds in downtown Asheville, was reportedly digging wells to find water for essential services, Brown said.

“There was feces piled up in the toilets, and people had buckets next to their rooms, and they were flushing their toilets that way… [Doctors] couldn’t do procedures because there was no way to clean their utensils,” Brown said.

Access to water is the top demand from Asheville’s citizens.

“The biggest thing right now is that we definitely need to fix the infrastructure for the water. Water is the major need here,” said Rev. Micheal Woods, the pastor of Western Carolina Rescue Ministries in Asheville, whose facilities have become a staging point to accept donations and distribute them to the community. Woods told The Epoch Times he wants President Joe Biden and Gov. Roy Cooper (D-N.C.) to make water restoration their top priority.

“I’m down to four water bottles,” said Yoshida Mills, a resident of Asheville who came to collect free water bottles and supplies at a community center. “Give me everything.”

Crime and Looting

The post-flood destruction has birthed another fear: crime. Several citizens reported incidents of looting to The Epoch Times, claiming that looters are targeting damaged and/or abandoned properties—motivated by desperation amid shortages, and opportunity, given many residents have fled.

Many fear they will be victims of a home invasion and are taking steps to defend themselves.

“I actually own a gun. I have it loaded and sitting by my bed, and I have a butcher knife and a can of wasp spray. I am afraid at night,” said Feinberg, the retired schoolteacher. “It’s totally dark, and nobody’s around, so just in case the looters decide to venture out, I’m there … We’re a little nervous about looting.”

“We have heard there was looting in Swannanoa and Black Mountain,” said Brown, referring to nearby towns around Asheville. Many who say they’re residents of the area have claimed on social media that looting is ongoing.

Local authorities are cognizant of looting and have issued public messages against it. “We understand that times are tough, but looting is never the answer. We urge everyone to stay calm and patient as resources are on the way to assist those in need,” wrote the City of Asheville on its website regarding public safety. “We’re working closely with local and state partners to distribute supplies and restore order.”

Authorities have surged the police and military presence in Asheville to deter looting, with armed peace officers coming from across the country to provide assistance. Police officers from Louisiana were present in the area, The Epoch Times observed.

“We’re here to keep people out of the unsafe areas and to try to be a deterrent for looting,” said Officer C. Kostel, a North Carolina Probation Officer, who was deployed at Tunnel Road. “They pulled in everyone from the other coast, all the way through.”

Queen described the U.S. military presence in the area as “a combination of search, rescue, and avoidance of people doing stupid stuff, like looting.”

Beyond looting, authorities have warned affected residents to be wary of disaster relief scams, where they may be prompted to pay for emergency services that do not come.

“False websites have been identified as circulating throughout the county. Please vet websites before you provide your information,” read a public safety alert broadcast to phones in Burke County, North Carolina, on Oct. 3.

The Newly Homeless

After the flooding, many citizens returned to Asheville to find that they had lost everything—homes, cars, and all possessions. Many businesses remain closed; their employees suddenly out of work. Many people are now living with friends and relatives as they process the new reality.

“My son and his wife, they lost everything. My mother-in-law lost everything,” said Sharon Parton, a motel operator in Asheville, who has several relatives now living with her. “For the first time in years, I have a full house,” she told The Epoch Times.

“[My grandmother’s] house is condemned. It’s got a big ‘X’ on the side,” said Queen, indicating that the property has been declared dangerous and legally uninhabitable.

The region’s homeless population has grown, and they are relying upon temporary shelters, food banks, and clothes drives to survive. The American Red Cross has set up a temporary shelter for the unhoused at Asheville-Buncombe Technical College.

Randy Stay, a Red Cross volunteer from Arizona, told The Epoch Times that high demand has pushed such facilities to the limit of their capacity.

“It’s full. There’s a waiting list,” Stay said of the Red Cross facility. “We’ve got homeless people from encampments [and] people from houses that aren’t, you know, in the best shape.”

Some community leaders are raising concerns about the latter group of people, who have no previous experience with homelessness. Once shelters close, they say the lack of experience by the newly homeless will increase their suffering.

“This is what most people are not thinking about or seeing. There were people who were housed—they weren’t considered homeless—but they were on the fringe and, now, have lost their housing … those people are now thrust into the unhoused community,” Woods said.

“That creates a whole different segment of people. That comes with a different mindset … those that [were homeless] understand how to navigate it … We’re not set up here locally to handle that [new] segment of the population.”

For now, relief efforts are working to ease that adjustment.

“We are distributing 25,000 meals a day,” volunteer with World Central Kitchen Maria Mora, a food relief organization created by celebrity chef José Andrés, told The Epoch Times.

“We’re going out into the communities and serving them,” her colleague, Erica Burke, said.

Read the rest here…

We’re currently in-between US payrolls from last Friday and US CPI this Thursday which will be the highlight of this week.

As DB’s Jim Reid reminds us this morning, the first of these was a knockout report with the headline number up +254k as against expectations of +150k and with the unemployment rate falling a tenth to 4.1% (4.05% unrounded), which however was due to a record surge in 785,000 government jobs. Still, even though the monthly payrolls report is better known as a “random number generator”, even with that caveat it was an impressive report and completely against recent fears, sending the dollar and yields soaring. The main impact was a +21.6bps increase in 2yr US yields on Friday and the probability of a 50bps cut next month declining from around 33% to effectively zero in the process. Reid’s own view was always that the amount of rate cuts priced in since mid to late summer was only likely if we had a recession, and if we didn’t, then the rates market overall was too pessimistic. He would still say that today.

In terms of moving this argument on, it’s a relatively quiet week in the US apart from Thursday’s CPI but in terms of the main global day-by-day highlights we have the following. Today sees Germany factory orders – which cratered – and Eurozone retail sales, tomorrow sees German Industrial Production, and Swedish CPI, Wednesday sees the last FOMC minutes and a 10yr UST auction, Thursday sees the release of the account of the last ECB meeting, France present its budget proposal, Japanese PPI, German retail sales, Italian industrial production, Norway and Denmark CPI, and a 30yr UST auction, with Friday home to US PPI, the US University of Michigan survey, UK August monthly GDP and US Earnings season kicking off with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon all reporting.

In terms of this week’s US CPI, consensus expects headline CPI of +0.1% vs. +0.19% previously, to come in tame with core +0.2% (down from +0.28%) edging lower but more elevated than headline. Headline YoY CPI would dip a couple of tenths to 2.3%, with core staying around the same level at 3.2%. However, the six-month annualized core rate would fall from 2.7% to 2.4%. Rents will again take center stage after recent strength. As for PPI on Friday, DB and consensus expect headline (+0.1% vs. +0.2% last month) and core (+0.2% vs. 0.3% last month) to be directionally similar to CPI. The market will as ever pay closest attention to the categories that feed into the core PCE deflator – namely, health care services, airfares and portfolio management. Staying with inflation, Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will have inflation expectations which last month picked up a tenth to 3.1% for the long-run measure but fell the same amount to 2.7% for the 1yr measure.

As you’ll see in the day-by-day calendar of events, it’s also a busy week of Fed speakers. So it’ll be interesting to see how they all react to the bumper payrolls print. The last FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be a bit stale but may give us a better understanding as to how policy might evolve under various scenarios.

As noted above, Friday will mark the start of the Q3 earnings season with several US banks releasing results. Samsung, PepsiCo and BlackRock also report throughout the week.

DB strategists expect S&P 500 earnings growth to slow from 11.8% in Q2 to 9% in Q3, driven by a narrow group of sectors such as energy and mega cap growth & tech, with growth for the others staying steady in the mid-single digits.

Day-by-day calendar of events courtesy of DB:

Monday October 7

• Data: US August consumer credit, China September foreign reserves, Japan August leading index, coincident index, Germany August factory orders, Eurozone August retail sales
• Central banks: Fed’s Kashkari, Bowman, Bostic and Musalem speak, ECB’s Cipollone, Lane, Nagel and Escriva speak

Tuesday October 8

• Data: US September NFIB small business optimism, August trade balance, Japan August labor cash earnings, household spending, BoP current account and trade balance, September Economy Watchers survey, Germany August industrial production, France August current account balance, trade balance, Canada August international merchandise trade, Sweden September CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s Kugler, Bostic and Collins speak, ECB’s Nagel speaks
• Earnings: Samsung Electronics, PepsiCo
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday October 9

• Data: US August wholesale trade sales, Japan September machine tool orders, Germany August trade balance
• Central banks: Fed FOMC meeting minutes, Jefferson, Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee, Collins and Daly speak, ECB’s Villeroy and Elderson speak, RBNZ decision
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($39bn, reopening)

Thursday October 10

• Data: US September CPI, initial jobless claims, UK September RICS house price balance, Japan September PPI, bank lending, Germany August retail sales, Italy August industrial production, Norway and Denmark September CPI, Sweden August GDP indicator
• Central banks: Fed’s Barkin and Williams speak, ECB account of the September meeting
• Earnings: Domino’s Pizza, Fast Retailing, Seven & I
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($22bn, reopening)

Friday October 11

• Data: US September PPI, October University of Michigan survey, UK August monthly GDP, Japan September M2, M3, Germany August current account balance, Canada September jobs report, August building permits
• Central banks: Fed’s Goolsbee and Logan speak, BoC’s business outlook
• Earning: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon

* * *

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Thursday. There are many speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including remarks by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Tuesday and Wednesday and by New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday.

Monday, October 7

• 01:00 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas’s annual convention. Moderated Q&A is expected. Bowman dissented from the FOMC’s decision to lower the fed funds rate by 50bp in September, preferring a 25bp cut instead. On September 30th, Bowman said that “the US economy remains strong and core inflation remains uncomfortably above our 2% target.” As a result, she argued, the FOMC should be “moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance.”
• 01:50 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated Q&A at an event hosted by the Bank Holding Company Association. On September 23rd, Kashkari noted that he expects the FOMC to “take smaller steps” in lowering the fed funds rate going forward “unless the data changes materially.” Kashkari said he had forecast two more 25bp cuts before the end of the year in his submission to the September Summary of Economic Projections. Kashkari also noted that he estimates the neutral rate to be around 2.9%, above the 2.5% he estimated in March, and said that “the longer this economic resilience continues, the more signal I take that the temporary elevation of the neutral rate might in fact be more structural.”
• 06:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will moderate a conversation with Steve Koonin, CEO of the Atlanta Hawks and State Farm Arena, as part of the Atlanta Fed’s Leading Voices series. On September 23rd, Bostic said that his “residual concern about inflation might have led me to settle on a relatively small first move last week — say, 25 basis points. But such a move would belie growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the labor market.” Bostic also noted that “policy remains in the restrictive range, so if my optimism about inflation is unsatisfied, then the Committee can slow or even halt the pace of further reductions. Should labor markets prove substantially less healthy than they appear at the moment, the ½ percentage point reduction puts us in a better position to adjust than a more modest cut would have.”
• 06:30 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver a speech on the US economy and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University. Text and Q&A are expected. On September 27th, Musalem noted that the business sector was in a “good place” with activity overall “solid”, adding that mass lay-offs did not appear “imminent.” As a result, Musalem argued, the Fed should revert to lowering the fed funds rate “gradually,” following the 50bp cut at the September meeting.

 Tuesday, October 8

• 03:00 AM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech at the ECB’s Conference on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt. Text and audience and moderated Q&A are expected. On September 25th, Governor Kugler said she “strongly supported” the FOMC’s decision to lower the fed funds rate by 50bp in September. Kugler noted that “the labor market remains resilient, but the FOMC now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy as disinflation continues in the right trajectory.”
• 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism, September (consensus 92.0, last 91.2)
• 08:30 AM Trade balance, August (GS -$71.7bn, consensus -$70.5bn, last -$78.8bn)
• 12:45 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will deliver remarks on the economic outlook and take part in a moderated discussion at the Atlanta Consular Corps luncheon. Q&A is expected.
• 04:00 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will deliver remarks as part of the 23rd annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 07:30 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will take part in an event on the discount window at Davidson College in North Carolina. Text and audience Q&A are expected.

Wednesday, October 9

• 08:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks; Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will deliver welcoming remarks at the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Association’s monthly meeting.
• 09:15 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver a speech to the Future of Global Energy Conference hosted by the Greater Houston Partnership. Text is expected.
• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, August final (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%)
• 10:30 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give opening remarks at the Chicago Payments Symposium. On Friday, after the September employment report was released, Goolsbee noted that “this jobs number today, and the whole report, is a superb report,” although he also said that “you don’t want to react too much to one month’s report.” Goolsbee observed that “there are some signs that inflation might undershoot the 2% target, and we want to be mindful of that too.”
• 12:30 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will deliver a speech on the discount window at an event hosted by the Charlotte Economics Club. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, September 17-18: The FOMC delivered a 50bp cut at its September meeting. The Fed leadership appears to have pushed through a larger cut even though many participants seemed to indicate that they preferred a smaller cut in their submissions to the dot plot. The rationale for the larger cut and the key theme of the meeting was the shift in focus from inflation risks to employment risks in light of softer labor market data at the time. We therefore look for further details on FOMC participants’ views of the appropriate policy stance and their expectations for the policy path going forward. That being said, the September employment report has since reset the labor market narrative, and the FOMC meeting minutes will not reflect updated assessments of labor market risks in light of those data.
• 05:00 PM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will deliver a speech at the Worcester Regional Research Bureau’s 39th annual meeting. Text and Q&A are expected.
• 06:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a moderated conversation at Boise State University. Q&A is expected.

Thursday, October 10

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), September (GS +0.10%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (MoM), September (GS +0.28%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); CPI (YoY), September (GS +2.27%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.5%); Core CPI (YoY), September (GS +3.16%, consensus +3.2%, last +3.2%): We estimate a 0.28% increase in September core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged on a rounded basis at 3.2%. Our forecast reflects an increase in used car prices (+1.0%) reflecting a rebound in auction prices, another increase in airfares (+0.5%) reflecting a boost from residual seasonality, and another firm increase in the car insurance category (+0.7%) based on continued—albeit decelerating—increases in premiums in our online dataset. We expect a modest decline in new car prices (-0.1%), reflecting a sequential increase in new vehicle incentives. We expect moderation in the shelter components (OER +0.35%, primary rent +0.31%). We estimate a 0.10% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food prices (+0.2%) but lower energy prices (-2.1%). Our forecast is consistent with a 0.22% increase in core PCE in September. We will update our core PCE forecast after the CPI is released and again after the PPI is released.
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 5 (GS 235k, consensus 230k, last 225k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 28 (consensus 1,832k, last 1,826k): We estimate that initial claims increased by 10k to 235k in the week ended October 5th, reflecting an estimated 15k boost from hurricane-related filings but a 5k drag from residual seasonality.
• 09:15 AM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech on entrepreneurship and innovation at an event in Charleston, South Carolina. Text and Q&A are expected. On September 26th, Cook said she “wholeheartedly” supported the FOMC’s decision to lower the fed funds rate by 50bp in September, noting that the “decision reflected growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, the solid labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate economic growth and inflation continuing to move sustainably down to our target.”
• 10:30 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will take part in a fireside chat on the economic outlook at the Virginia Maritime Association’s 2024 International Trade Symposium. Q&A is expected. On October 2nd, Barkin noted that “it remains difficult to say that the inflation battle has yet been won,” and that “while we have made real progress, there remains significant uncertainty on both inflation and employment.”
• 11:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver keynote remarks at an event hosted by Binghamton University. Text and Q&A are expected. On September 6th, Williams said that the recent data had been “consistent with the good labor market that existed in the period before the pandemic” and that the unemployment rate “remains relatively low by historical standards.” Williams said he saw potential downside risks to growth as a result of “significant further weakening in the US labor market” or a “sharp slowdown in global growth” but both “upside and downside” risks to inflation.

Friday, October 11

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food and energy, September (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%);
• 09:00 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at the Community Bankers Symposium, hosted by the Chicago Fed.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October preliminary (GS 71.2, consensus 70.5, last 70.1); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, October preliminary (GS 3.0%, consensus 3.0%, last 3.1%)
• 10:45 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will participate in a panel discussion at the Women in Financial Services Conference, hosted by the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas. Q&A is expected.
• 01:10 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech on community banking at the Chicago Fed’s Community Bankers Symposium. Text and Q&A are expected.

Source: DB, Goldman