Month: October 2024

In a head-turning move as we head down the stretch of the 2024 presidential election, the Elon Musk-financed America PAC announced it will start paying $47 to anyone who refers a registered, swing-state voter to sign a petition embracing free speech and gun rights. With no limit on the number of referrals, the program seemingly offers individuals the chance to rack up hundreds of dollars in bounties with little effort. 

“Our goal is to get 1 million registered voters in swing states to sign in support of the Constitution, especially freedom of speech and the right to bear arms,” America PAC states on the petition page. “This program is exclusively open to registered voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina.”  

For every person you refer who is a swing state voter, you get $47! Easy money. https://t.co/5jCNuXIaui

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024

The program seemingly has two complementary aims:

• Building a list of registered voters to be used in get-out-the-vote initiatives for Donald Trump
• Indirectly incentivizing voter registration among conservative-leaning swing-state residents — by paying people who may encourage others to register to vote so they can sign the petition

Importantly, that registration-motivation element is roundabout. It’s against federal election law to pay someone to register to vote or to vote, but the America PAC program merely pays people for referring registered voters to sign a petition. Nonetheless, some are struggling to grasp that rather glaring distinction: 

Musk is now advertising paying voters $47 for a shady data grab / voter registration scheme in swing states.

How is this even legal? pic.twitter.com/wdsL3gEppb

— Tobi (@TobiFrenzen) October 6, 2024

Signing the petition requires providing your name, email address, mailing address and cell phone number. The online form says the phone number “will only be used to confirm you are the legitimate petition signer. No other purpose.” There’s also a place to provide the email address or phone number of the person who referred you to the petition. The page cautions that “before payment is made, America PAC will verify the accuracy of all information of the referrer and referee.”

The petition‘s language is almost comically brief, merely stating “the First and Second Amendments guarantee freedom of speech and the right to bear arms. By signing below, I am pledging my support for the First and Second Amendments.” While the language is naturally meant to appeal to conservatives, there’s apparently nothing to stop Democrats from signing the petition, diluting the voter list and scoring some cash along the way. Some are already looking to exploit that angle: 

Musk’s Super Pac is paying $47 to anyone who refers people in swing states to sign up.

I urge Harris supporters to sign up. We, unlike Trump, don’t want to “suspend the Constitution”.

All money earned from referrals will be donated to a Harris Super Pac.

Use Email… https://t.co/wTYIulFfbD

— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) October 6, 2024

According to Forbes, Musk is the world’s richest person, with an Oct 1-estimated net worth of $270.5 billion. Though he’d previously voted for Barack Obama and once said “I get involved in politics as little as possible,” Musk has become an ardent backer of Trump’s reelection campaign, and scathing critic of leftist ideology and tactics. On Saturday, he joined Trump onstage at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, at the very site where Trump was shot in the ear by a would-be assassin. 

The America PAC was launched in May to focus on voter registration and turnout — to include encouraging mail-in balloting. While the Wall Street Journal‘s sources said Musk had committed to contributing $45 million a month to America PAC, he denied the report, calling it “a fiction made up by the Wall Street Journal.” The Journal reported that other donors include Palantir Technologies co-founder Joe Lonsdale and the Winklevoss twins.  

Voter registration windows are starting to close. Here are the registration deadlines in the swing states (you can see the details on any state’s deadlines here): 

• Arizona: Monday, Oct 7
• Georgia: Monday, Oct 7
• Michigan: Monday, Oct 21 (in-person registration allowed through Election Day)
• Nevada: Wednesday Oct 23 (in-person registration allowed through Election Day)
• North Carolina: Friday, Oct 11 (in-person registration allowed during early voting period)
• Pennsylvania: Monday, Oct 21
• Wisconsin: Wednesday, Oct 16 (in-person registration allowed through Election Day)

Authored by Justin Smith via The Burning Platform blog,

Americans across several states are suffering and attempting to survive under unimaginably harsh conditions, without food and water, in that aftermath of Hurricane Helene which tore across ten states in the Southeast last week, leaving a path of destruction in its wake. And a week later, these people have found that they are largely on their own, as all the real help that has arrived has come through the efforts of individuals and nonprofit groups such as Samaritan Purse, Mountain Mule Packers Ranch, Save Our Allies and Aerial Recovery, which has exposed the fact — to anyone who didn’t already know — that the Biden regime doesn’t give a good damn about them, as Biden and his minions have engaged in not just dereliction of duty but the worst betrayal of the American people ever witnessed, since the birth of the nation.

Joe Biden, the placeholder-in-chief, showed up in Georgia [10-3-24] to give lip-service to the disaster and made promises of money to come, some twenty million dollars, and a recovery that will supposedly be totally undertaken by the federal government. No one should hold their breath waiting on that help to arrive, but if it does, they can bet the farm it will come with the intent of helping Biden special interest groups and supporters first.

Americans should note: $20 million for the victims of Helene and well over $640 million for illegal aliens and approximately $180 BILLION for Ukraine. When does THIS Damned MADNESS Stop!?!

It’s an astounding matter that despite assertions of nineteen thousand National Guardsmen and FEMA workers already being on the ground in those states most severely affected, from Florida to Tennessee and Georgia and on to the horrific situation near Asheville, North Carolina, no one can find them, as FEMA workers are simply sitting in their trucks and sending out mass emails with an app for the victims of Helene to use to apply for financial help, rebuilding their homes, and most importantly finding a way to have food and water and medicines sent their way as soon as possible — THIS in areas where there currently isn’t electricity or any cellphone reception and internet.

It’s a curious thing to witness this tragic situation compounded by the inaction of the federal government and federal workers, agencies and the U.S. military all missing in action as the victims keep asking where all these mysterious government workers are supposedly delivering aid and much needed necessities to anyone.

Where is the federal government? No one has seen much of an inkling from it yet.

For survivors in the Asheville, North Carolina area, Mountain Mule Packer Ranch has left this number — 910-885-1402 — for anyone who knows of specific needs and areas where they can be of assistance with their mule trains.

The military should have been brought up immediately and released under Title 10 to immediately render aid throughout all regions devastated by Hurricane Helene which has killed over 224 people and counting to date, with thousands of more people missing and their whereabouts unaccounted, especially with Ft Bragg right there in North Carolina and Ft Benning in Georgia. Several individual volunteers like John Howard, with Aerial Recovery, have told of speaking with various military units that were on the ground but awaiting authorization and orders to release them to act, including two Air Force helicopters that were simply sitting idle at the Asheville Airport.

This is beyond unconscionable once one considers that the 82nd Airborne can be up and on their way to any hotspot in the world between eight and eighteen hours. It’s simply a lack of a president and any leadership in the federal government, as one should note that in 1990, a brigade of the 82nd Airborne was deployed to Saudi Arabia after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in less than three days, followed by all the armaments of a full division, including light armor, within the week.

However, in one case, where FEMA and National Guardsmen are found, “they are getting in the way” as told to Fox News on October 2nd 2024 by Tim Kennedy, a relief volunteer, who had gathered survivors in his ongoing efforts to find them shelter. He explained how he and these survivors were turned away from one hotel after being told it was completely booked by federal employees. These employees have the weight of the government behind them and don’t need to worry about how their next meal is going to be found; if anything, they should be sleeping in tents and eating MREs [known as C-rations in my day].

Adding insult to injury, all America heard Joe Biden say his regime has “done all we can do” in regard to this crisis and the misery the victims of Hurricane Helene are enduring, as the Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas — the biggest anti-American traitor next to Biden — told the country that the money for FEMA to respond had simply run out for the fiscal year, after FEMA has spent more than $1.4 BILLION since the fall of 2022 to provide necessities for illegal alien invaders. There remain billions of U.S. taxpayers’ dollars setting dormant in other programs, especially those associated with covid that could be taken for this national emergency, and yet, everyone who could do something simply refuses to take effective, efficient and proper action.

But goddamned if they don’t pull out all stops to find financing for homes, food and clothing for illegal alien invaders, who are murdering our sons and daughters as we speak and spit on our American flag, and two wars approximately six thousand miles away each, while Vice-President Harris parties in L.A. with Hollywood celebrities in order to beg campaign funds.

As recently noted by Stephen Miller, of America First Legal, the FEMA Emergency Food and Shelter Program has been reshaped to primarily provide funding to illegal aliens encountered by the Border Patrol and ICE at the southern border, in spite of the fact it was originally created to help only U.S. citizens. In one post, he asserts that $685 million of U.S. taxpayer dollars have been diverted to aid illegal aliens, as FEMA’s own website acknowledges spending $640 million on “noncitizen migrant arrivals”.

Miller added:

“Over the last four years, the Biden administration has steadily transformed FEMA – the agency responsible for responding to natural disasters like Hurricane Helene – into an illegal alien resettlement agency that emphasizes DEI over public safety.”

Florida’s Attorney General, Ashley Moody obviously agrees with Miller and others who see this treason unfolding, as she recently told Fox News: Americans should be ‘outraged’ over Mayorkas’ comments on FEMA funds:

“This is not something that has just happened recently. Florida’s been warning about this since this administration took over. Mayorkas has come in like a virus and infected these — what need to be healthy, strong, fundamental programs to ensure the stability and safety of Americans in times of disaster. So you heard, they have taken the FEMA emergency food and shelter program and over time, siphoned off hundreds of millions of dollars into basically making it an illegal immigrant resettlement program [which will only encourage more illegal alien invaders to come]. Biden and Harris are having to fund that on the backs of the American people. And now, right now, in Florida, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, all of these states are hurting.

Adding more insult to more injury, Kamala recently stated that FEMA would distribute $750 in relief funds to all people in the devasted areas with immediate needs. But one North Carolina went on the internet to succinctly tell her what she can do with that paltry sum, in part stating:

“North Carolina flood victim: Kamala Harris, we don’t want you here. We don’t want your party here in North Carolina. If you’re a Democrat and you live in North Carolina, good for you. But this woman is given illegal immigration, patients, more rights to be entitled to be called American, thousands of dollars in food stamps, loads of money in their pockets, and she’s going to give the people in the mountains $750 dollars. You can take that money and go wipe your ass with it, Kamala.”

There remains a little matter of the $20 billion boost Congress gave to FEMA in September’s temporary funding bill that was signed into law by Biden. This must be solely used strictly for U.S. citizens only and relief for all currently living in unbelievable misery as they wonder when the will receive their next meal or enough fresh drinking water to make it through each day. Whether the anti-American traitorous Joe Biden and his vile, traitorous henchman Alejandros Mayorkas will do so is an entirely different matter that remains to be seen, which I see as unlikely, since this Biden regime appears intent on making life in general just as hard and miserable for the American public as it possibly can.

These traitorous criminals are using the federal treasury as their own slush fund to finance every single one of their destructive, anti-American agendas and policies, as they keep passing and attempting to pass two or three trillion dollar omnibus bills without any real oversight to later disappear in the pockets of their Marxist-Maoist cronies here and abroad. Everybody and his brother get taken care of by this regime, if they are a red, radical communist or some damned anti-American foreigner willing to come to America as the Democrat Party Communists’ foot soldiers, much as we should expect the 1.7 million illegal aliens with Islamic terror ties currently floating across the country unrestrained and free to wreak havoc at the drop of a hat.

FACT-CHECK FAIL: 2022 video nukes White House spokesperson’s claim FEMA funds weren’t diverted to illegal immigrants. pic.twitter.com/ydaZicamY7

— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 6, 2024

It’s a damned good thing that there are still many great Americans who can be found in this country willing to help one another in their direst times of need, because the federal response has been one monumental failure in this instance, whether due to intent or a lack of a sense of urgency and apathy, as in “we’ll get there when we get there”. This moment should serve as a wakeup call that we are living in a rudderless nation and, in times of emergency and real need, we can only look to ourselves to save each other and our families, because any regime led by the Democratic Party Communists certainly will not be overly concerned if we live or die, since they have their pick of Third World illegals to import to America on the taxpayers’ dime.

If this hasn’t been one of the worst cases of a betrayal of America and treason in all U.S. history, I don’t know what else one can call it, other than a crime against all Americans that should be punishable by life imprisonment at the least but in fact with the death penalty.

By Jesse Colombo, author of the Bubble Bubble Report

I wanted to share an interesting observation about gold’s behavior this past week. As I anticipated, gold priced in U.S. dollars has paused its rally, consolidating as it works off its overbought condition. Fortunately, it hasn’t experienced the deeper pullback that some had feared, reinforcing the resilience of this ongoing bull market. What’s particularly notable is that gold’s pause is driven almost entirely by the rebound in the U.S. dollar, rather than any intrinsic weakness in gold itself. In fact, gold continues to rally when priced in most non-U.S. currencies, as I’ll demonstrate in this piece.

The chart below shows COMEX gold futures, which are priced in U.S. dollars. Over the past week, gold futures have been consolidating within a $50 range, between $2,650 and $2,700. This is a healthy behavior in a bull market, as gold takes a breather before its likely next move higher. A decisive breakout above the key $2,700 level will signal the next leg up. Additionally, I’ve observed that each dip in gold continues to be met with buying, further signaling underlying strength.

Gold’s pause over the past week was largely driven by the surging U.S. dollar, which benefited from flight-to-safety capital flows following Iran’s launch of over 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel and Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which showed that 254,000 jobs were added in September. Gold and the U.S. dollar typically move inversely, meaning a stronger dollar usually puts downward pressure on gold, and vice versa. However, despite the dollar’s recent surge, gold has managed to hold its ground, which is a clear sign of resilience.

What’s especially noteworthy, however, is that gold’s rally remains strong and uninterrupted when priced in most non-U.S. currencies. I find it valuable to monitor gold priced in non-U.S. currencies because it removes the influence of dollar weakness or strength and shows whether gold is actually strong in its own right. For example, gold continues to hit fresh all-time highs when priced in euros:

Gold’s rally continues unabated when priced in British pounds:

Gold priced in Swiss francs recently broke out and is hitting new all-time highs. Switzerland is an important center for the international gold industry, making this breakout especially significant, as I recently detailed in an article.

The chart below shows gold priced in euros, British pounds, and Swiss francs. I find that this particular mix shows gold’s movements very clearly. As you can see, gold’s rally continues smoothly without any interruptions. I recently used gold priced in this basket of currencies to project a run to at least $3,000 during this bull market — a target that’s quite reasonable, considering it represents only a 13% gain from current levels.

Gold priced in Australian dollars recently broke out and hit an all-time high on Friday. Australia is one of the world’s leading gold exporters, and its Perth Mint is renowned as one of the most popular producers of gold bullion products globally.

Gold priced in Singapore dollars has continued to show strong performance following its breakout a few weeks ago. This is an important development because Singapore is a regional gold trading hub and is expected to become even more influential in the gold arena in the years ahead.

After nearly six months of wide-ranging fluctuations, driven by volatility in the Japanese yen, gold priced in yen has finally experienced a breakout. I’ve seen many people suggest that gold’s bull market is overextended and due for a sharp correction, but I strongly disagree. Gold is just beginning to break out in non-U.S. currencies, with the yen being a perfect example of this emerging strength.

In light of these observations, it’s clear that while gold has paused in U.S. dollar terms, its strength in non-U.S. currencies reflects the ongoing momentum of this bull market. Gold’s resilience against the backdrop of a surging dollar and global economic uncertainty highlights its solid foundation. As we see breakouts across major currencies like the yen, euro, and Swiss franc, it becomes evident that the broader bull market for gold is far from over. This multi-currency perspective reinforces the view that gold still has room to run, with significant upside potential ahead.

If you enjoyed this article, please visit Jesse’s Substack for more content like this…

Hurricane Milton has explosively intensified into a Category 3 storm and continues churning in the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning with crosshairs on Florida’s Gulf Coast. On Sunday, the Florida Division of Emergency Management announced the largest evacuation since 2017. This new tropical threat comes eleven days after Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region. Meanwhile, the Biden-Harris administration’s FEMA has faced mounting criticism for mishandling the initial relief response in North Carolina. 

The latest advisory note from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows Milton has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, or Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This means the hurricane is now a ‘major’ storm. 

6:00 AM CDT Monday Update: NOAA Hurricane Hunters find #Milton a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds have increased to 120 mph (195 km/h). #Milton is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ pic.twitter.com/EYkFxvTozk

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 7, 2024

“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday,” the NHC said.

Milton is expected to cause a storm surge in the Tampa Bay area, with forecasts ranging between 8 and 12 feet. This is much higher than Hurricane Helene when the area recorded 7-8 feet of storm surge. 

During a news conference on Sunday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a State of Emergency for 51 of the state’s 67 counties, up from 35 on Saturday. 

DeSantis said, “This allows state officials to operate without the limitations of bureaucracy, making critical resources available to communities ahead of any potential storm impacts.”

Director Kevin Guthrie of the Florida Division of Emergency Management also told reporters that evacuations underway are the largest since 2017. 

“I urge Floridians to finalize your storm preparations now, enact your plan. I highly encourage you to evacuate,” Guthrie said.

Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN that residents should “Just go now” to “Beat the traffic and go now, and just go to higher ground.”

DeSantis noted, “The Florida National Guard, the Florida State Guard additional FDOT personnel and the Florida Highway Patrol have been activated and deployed to aid in debris removal and provide logistical support to local entities.” 

The second tropical threat to hit the US Southeast in under two weeks is alarming since the Biden-Harris administration botched the first response efforts for North Carolina. Hundreds are dead across six states.

SpaceX Engineer In North Carolina Has Dire Warning: Biden-Harris’ FEMA “Actively Blocking Shipments” For Relief https://t.co/aydr7R3wrd

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2024

Meanwhile, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told reporters last week that FEMA “does not have the funds” to see Americans through the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season. While the Biden-Harris administration claims no funds were diverted, the agency spent roughly $640 million on migrant-related expenses this year.

Alejandro Mayorkas—along with the entire Biden-Harris regime—provides aid and comfort to illegal aliens while claiming there’s no funding for American citizens.

The Republican-controlled House voted to continue funding his salary mere weeks ago.https://t.co/TTxR8N2FYK

— Rep Andy Biggs (@RepAndyBiggsAZ) October 3, 2024

Mayorkas was shopping for luxury clothing in the fancy Georgetown area this weekend. 

“Hunger Games $hit“: DHS Head Mayorkas Shops In Georgetown While Katrina-Like Disaster Unfolds In North Carolina https://t.co/kwHTiVrSam

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 6, 2024

“Joe Biden was at the beach when the hurricane came ashore. VP Harris was raising money w/ celebrities before staging a plane photo op. I promise you if a Republican were in the WH there would be no political restraint, just as there was none after Katrina,” CNN pundit Scott Jennings wrote on X. 

Joe Biden was at the beach when the hurricane came ashore. VP Harris was raising money w/ celebrities before staging a plane photo op. I promise you if a Republican were in the WH there would be no political restraint, just as there was none after Katrina. pic.twitter.com/K8LjX6Sd6U

— Scott Jennings (@ScottJenningsKY) October 5, 2024

Those in need in storm-ravaged areas might want to consider identifying as “Ukraine,” “Lebanon,” or non-US citizens to receive federal aid more quickly. 

US equity futures are lower as the selling in Treasuries accelerates after strong US jobs data slashed bets on a big interest-rate reduction next month from the Federal Reserve and an overnight surge in oil pushed Brent to $80 (see last night’s “A Historic Short Squeeze In Oil Has Only Begun“), which sent both the 2Y and 10Y above 4.00%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4% after closing just shy of an all-time high on Friday when the spike in yields failed to dent bullish sentiment, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.6% as most Mag 7s are lower; AMZN -1.9%, AAPL -1.4% and NVDA -1.2%. In rates, the entire curve is blowing out wider, with 2-, 5-, 10- and 30y yields up by 7bp, 6bp, 4bp and 2bp, respectively as swaps markets now price in less than a quarter-point rate cut next month, having expected a 50 basis-point move until recently. Oil has added another +2.3% amid growing fears of imminent Iran escalation with Israel launching a new offensive in Northern Gaza over the weekend; base metals are higher, while ags are lower. This week, the key macro focus will be CPI on Thursday and 12 Fed speakers throughout the week. We will have a number of Tech catalysts, including: NVDA’s AI Summit (Monday through Wednesday), AMZN’s Prime Day starting Tuesday, AMD’s Advancing AI event on Thursday, and TSLA’s Robotaxi unveil on Thursday. Q3 earnings will kick off with banks on Friday.

In premarket trading, Pfizer climbed more than 2% after Bloomberg reported activist investor Starboard Value had taken a stake of about $1 billion in the firm. Arcadium Lithium Plc. leapt 29% on news Rio Tinto Plc had made a non-binding takeover approach. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Air Products rises 6% after the Wall Street Journal reported activist investor Mantle Ridge has a more than $1 billion stake in the company, citing people familiar with the matter.
• Amazon.com slips 1.9% as Wells Fargo steps away from its bullish rating.
• Arcadium soars 29% after Rio Tinto made an approach for the lithium producer.
• Casino stocks are moving higher after Wynn Resorts received a commercial gaming operator’s license in the United Arab Emirates. Wynn (WYNN) +2%, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) +3%
• Garmin declines 3% as Morgan Stanley downgrades the stock to underweight, flagging concerns about product launch timing and market headwinds.
• Heidelberg Materials AG benefited from a report that the Adani Group has started talks to buy the company’s Indian cement operations, and luxury-goods firm Richemont rose after an announcement it would sell the online retailer YNAP to Mytheresa.

The drop in rate cut expectations will likely to weigh on equity markets, which have rallied to record highs recently amid signs of a robust US economy, easing inflation and big rate cuts. In addition, crude oil prices pushed higher to approach $80 a barrel, as investors await Israel’s response to the recent Iranian missile strike. Marija Veitmane, head of equity strategy at State Street Global Markets, said she still remains constructive on the equity outlook as economies remain resilient and inflation is easing. However, “we have to be a bit careful in terms of drivers, as we will probably not get a lot of big aggressive rate cuts,” Veitmane said on Bloomberg TV.

Investors are now looking ahead to the US inflation data due Thursday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting year-on-year price growth at 2.3%, a slight slowdown from the previous reading. The earnings season also kicks off this week with reports from big US banks. Earnings growth is seen robust though it’s expected to slow from the second quarter.

European stocks also edged lower as bond yields rose across the continent.  The Stoxx 600 falls 0.4% with rate sensitive sectors – real estate and technology – leading declines. Heidelberg Materials AG benefited from a report that the Adani Group has started talks to buy the company’s Indian cement operations, and luxury-goods firm Richemont rose after an announcement it would sell the online retailer YNAP to Mytheresa. Germany sank deeper into recession after Industrial Production tumbled a worse than expected 5.8%, prompting many to wonder if even China’s bazooka can fix Europea this time.

Here are the top European movers:

• Shell shares rise as much as 0.7% after the oil company’s third-quarter update showed its upstream and integrated gas divisions continued to benefit from strong momentum, helping counter a weaker downstream performance, according to analysts
• Richemont shares gain as much as 2% after the luxury goods group sold its e-commerce platform YNAP to Mytheresa. Analysts were positive on the deal because the retail platform has struggled against a weaker spending backdrop
• Jenoptik gains as much as 6.8%, the most in two months, after Deutsche Bank upgraded its view on the German industrial optics firm to buy from hold, signposting a “three-step path to higher valuation”
• FD Technologies shares rise as much as 9.4% to hit their highest level in almost 14 months after agreeing to sell its First Derivative Business to EPAM Systems for an enterprise value of £230 million
• Sanofi shares slip as much as 3%, the most since May 13, after people with knowledge of the matter said bidders for its consumer healthcare unit are revising their offers in part to address concerns around potential liabilities related to a brand that sold talcum powder
• Bayer shares drop as much as 3%, worst performer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index on Monday morning, as analysts at Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley both predict a “soft” third quarter
• Neste falls as much as 3.1% as BNP Paribas Exane cuts its recommendation to underperform from neutral, saying it sees little reason to believe the energy firm’s margins will materially inflect next year
• Alten falls as much as 6.7% and TietoEVRY as much as 4.8% after Bank of America cut its ratings on the IT services firms to underperform in a review of the sector

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks snapped a three-day losing run, as a weaker yen buoyed Japanese equities and shares in Hong Kong extended their rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.2%. Exporters led gains in Japan as the yen slumped against the dollar following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report. TSMC and Recruit Holdings were among the biggest boosts to the regional gauge. Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks continued to rally, despite a mid-day scare which saw stocks briefly dip, as traders awaited a press briefing by China’s top economic planner due Tuesday for more details on Beijing’s stimulus measures. Traders also prepared for the onshore market to reopen Tuesday after the week-long Golden Week holiday. Chinese equities have been cheap, and “we have added significant capital to China throughout the year,” said Vikas Pershad, a fund manager at M&G Investments, speaking on Bloomberg Television. “The initiatives coming out tomorrow may probably continue to support “consumer first and then moving on to other industries as well.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The yen is the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.2% against the greenback, even as Goldman expressed surprise about the move: “Surprising to see JPY is still long. Given our house view that US economy will fare well and BoJ’s dovish rhetoric, JPY longs look vulnerable. We see good scope for market re-initiating JPY shorts next few weeks” FX trader Kerem Cirpan wrote. The pound is the weakest with a 0.4% fall.

In rates, treasuries added to Friday’s sharp fall where surprisingly robust September US payrolls data undercut chances for another large interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The US 10-year yield rises 4 bps to above 4% for the first time since Aug. 8. Meanwhile the 2s10s yield curve uninverted for the first time since Sept 18. European bonds follow suit with Gilts faring worse than their German counterparts.

In commodities, oil prices rise after their best week since January 2023, with Brent crude futures up ~2% at $79.70 a barrel. Spot gold is steady around $2,653/oz.

Looking at the day’s main event, US economic data calendar includes August consumer credit at 3pm. Ahead this week are CPI and PPI, as well as minutes of September FOMC on Wednesday Fed speakers scheduled include Bowman (1pm), Kashkari (1:50pm), Bostic (6pm) and Musalem (6:30pm)

Market snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 5,784.00
• STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 518.07
• MXAP up 1.0% to 196.73
• MXAPJ up 0.6% to 627.93
• Nikkei up 1.8% to 39,332.74
• Topix up 1.7% to 2,739.39
• Hang Seng Index up 1.6% to 23,099.78
• Shanghai Composite up 8.1% to 3,336.50
• Sensex down 0.8% to 81,045.70
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 8,205.40
• Kospi up 1.6% to 2,610.38
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.26%
• Euro little changed at $1.0977
• Brent Futures up 1.2% to $79.02/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,654.36
• US Dollar Index little changed at 102.44

Top Overnight news

• China’s home sales rose during the National Day holiday after a string of property stimulus measures to boost the country’s beleaguered real estate market since late September, state media said on Saturday. RTRS
• China’s NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) will hold a news conference on Tues to unveil a “wide-ranging action plan” for implementing the government’s stimulus agenda. SCMP
• BOJ’s report on Japan’s regional economies suggest the central bank remains on a path to tighten policy, although doesn’t signal the need for immediate action. BBG
• Trump’s economic plan would explode the deficit by more than double Harris’s blueprint ($7.5T for Trump vs. $3.5T for Harris). WSJ
• The leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, has become fatalistic after nearly a year of war in Gaza and is determined to see Israel embroiled in a wider regional conflict, U.S. officials said. NYT
• IDF said on Monday that it is targeting Hamas sites and rocket launchers throughout the Gaza Strip and it attacked a Hamas command and control post at the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital. It was also reported that four projectiles were fired from Gaza as Israel began October 7 commemorations, according to AFP. Furthermore, Israeli media reported sirens sounded in Tel Aviv for fear of infiltration of drones and the Israeli military also announced that sirens sounded in Rishon Letsiyon in central Israel.
• Investment banks, forced to take big writedowns on risky merger and acquisitions loans after a global surge in interest rates, are now jumping back into leveraged buyouts — one of the most lucrative areas in finance. Traditional lenders and private credit managers are telling private equity firms, that they can provide more than $15 billion of debt on a single junk-rated deal. That’s about 50% more than last year, according to some market participants, when a number of loans were stuck on lenders’ balance sheets after central banks aggressively hiked rates to tame inflation. BBG
• TSLA was the subject of a cautious Barron’s cover story over the weekend, with the report expressing skepticism about the upcoming robotaxi catalyst (which might not have enough detail and specifics to spur further gains in the stock) and warning that an underwhelming event on Thurs could erode the perception of the company being anything other than an EV maker. Barron’s
• GOOGL’s dominance of the search market is gradually eroding thanks to Amazon, TikTok, and AI firms (Google’s share of the search ad market is expected to soon drop below 50%). WSJ
• Goldman cut its 12-month US recession probability back to the unconditional long-term average of 15% (from 20%), where it stood before the jump in the unemployment rate from 4.054% in June to 4.253% in July. GIR

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week on the front foot following last Friday’s gains on Wall St owing to the blockbuster jobs report, while Japanese stocks led the advances on the back of recent currency weakness. ASX 200 shrugged off early indecision as strength in tech, financials and miners picked up the slack from weakness in defensives. Nikkei 225 gapped above the 39,000 level with the rally facilitated by recent JPY weakness, while a Reuters analysis report suggested that a preference by Japan’s new leadership for loose monetary policy raises the hurdle for rate hikes. Hang Seng climbed at the open ahead of tomorrow’s resumption of trade in the mainland and the NDRC’s news conference to discuss implementing a package of policies to promote economic growth, although the gains were initially capped by weakness in some property stocks and China-EU tariff frictions.

Top Asian News

• Chinese officials will brief on economic policy implementation with the state planner to conduct a news conference on Tuesday at 10:00 local time (03:00BST/22:00EDT).
• Chief China correspondent at the WSJ posted on X “Source in Beijing told me there are lots of ‘misunderstandings in the market’ about what China will do next to support growth. Yes, some fiscal measures “in the pipeline” but nothing as big as some had speculated”.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said a weak yen has both merits and demerits, while he added that they will need to monitor how excessive forex moves will affect corporate activities and households.
• UMC (2303 TW) Sept (TWD) Sales 18.94bln, -0.58% Y/Y.
• BoJ Osaka Branch Manager said firms in Kansai region all share the view that FX moves should be moderate; expects more firms to strive towards raising wages next year.
• BYD (002594 CH) said new energy vehicle sales volume for September was 419,426 units (prev. 287,454 Y/Y).
• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) CEO says he is not interested in spinning off foundry or system LSI business; adds new chip factory project in Texas is tough due to changing situation.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.4%) began the session on a modestly firmer footing, but soon after the cash-open, sentiment soured. Indices are now mostly in negative territory and reside near session lows. European sectors initially opened with a modest firm bias which turned into a mixed picture within the first 15 minutes of cash trade and then mostly negative within the first half hour of trade, although no theme can be seen. Energy leads whilst Real Estate lags, given the relateively higher yield environment. US equity futures (ES -0.5%, NQ -0.7%, RTY -0.8%) are entirely in the red, continuing similar price action seen in Europe. US data docket ahead is light, but focus will be on Fed speak from Kashkari, Bostic & Musalem.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves seeks to reassure investors that guardrails will be placed around extra borrowing for investment and confirmed she was looking to revise her fiscal debt rule to take account of the benefits of investment and not just the costs, according to FT. It was also reported that Chancellor Reeves is to spare private equity bosses from the top 45p tax rate in the upcoming Budget as she looks for a compromise agreement to close tax loopholes that won’t drive investors out of Britain.
• UK PM Starmer’s Chief of Staff Sue Gray resigned on Sunday citing concerns about increasing news reports regarding her salary and role risk becoming a distraction to the government, according to AP.
• UK ministers were warned that power market reforms pose a danger to the industry and investment with trade groups warning proposals for regional pricing could risk deindustrialisation and higher costs, according to FT.
• UK’s job market continued to show more cooling in September as a survey by REC and KPMG showed growth in starting pay for people hired in permanent roles was at the slowest since February 2021.
• ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB will quite probably cut rates in October due to the rising risk of inflation undershooting the 2% target, according to a La Repubblica interview.

FX

• USD is net flat vs. peers following last week’s surge which saw DXY pick up from a 100.17 low to a 102.68 peak post-NFP. The next upside target for DXY comes via the 103 mark; not breached since 16th August. Docket today is light, but Fed’s Kashkari, Bostic & Musalem are due to speak.
• EUR is slightly lower vs. the USD in comparison to last week’s hefty losses, slipping from a 1.12 handle to a low of 1.0951 on account of the hawkish repricing at the Fed and endorsement of an October cut at the ECB. EUR/USD currently 1.0963.
• Cable is found at the foot of the G10 chart, despite the lack of fresh UK-specific drivers. GBP/USD currently trades towards the bottom end of today’s 1.3072-1.3134 range.
• JPY is a touch firmer vs. the USD but gains pale into insignificance compared to the losses seen last week which drove USD/JPY from a 141.64 low to a 149.12 high overnight.
• AUD/USD is slightly lower after a bruising end to the week last week which saw the pair dragged lower onto a 0.67 handle. NZD/USD has slipped below Friday’s 0.6145 low to a session trough of 0.6136. Focus for NZD is on this week’s RBNZ rate decision.

Fixed Income

• USTs are extending the downside seen in the wake of last week’s unambiguously hot NFP print which saw the odds of a 25bps rate cut rise from around 65% to current levels of 93%. US data docket today is light, so focus will be on US CPI/PPI later in the week. The US 10yr yield has climbed above 4% for the first time since Aug 8.
• Bunds are on the backfoot in an extension of the price action seen late last week. As it stands, market pricing currently has a 25bps cut next week at 98% with another 25bps cut in December fully priced. The German 10yr yield has climbed as high as 2.252%; highest since 4th September.
• Gilts are extending their downside with the Dec’24 contract at its lowest level since July. In terms of fresh UK drivers, there hasn’t been a great deal to go off over the weekend and that could remain the case throughout the week with Friday’s GDP print the main highlight. The UK 10yr yield has been as high as 4.189%; highest since July 4th.

Commodities

• Crude is firmer across the board and extending on gains amid the backdrop of heightened geopolitics on the first anniversary of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which has broadened to include Lebanon (with a new “focused and specific” ground operation in Southern Lebanon announced today), whilst an Israeli retaliation on Iran also looms. Brent Dec resides in a USD 77.23-78.85/bbl parameter.
• Mixed trade across precious metals with the complex failing to gain on geopolitics this morning, but likely taking a breather after the NFP-induced volatility on Friday. Spot gold resides in a current USD 2,639-2,656.44/oz range
• Flat/mixed base metals complex with copper futures rangebound on either side of USD 10k following a similar overnight session despite the mostly positive risk tone in APAC which later faded in Europe. 3M LME copper resides currently in a USD 9,928.00-10,023.00/t parameter.
• Saudi Arabia set the November Arab Light Crude Official Selling Price to Asia at a premium of USD 2.20 vs Oman/Dubai and to NW Europe at minus USD 0.45/bbl vs ICE Brent, while it set the OSP to the US at plus USD 3.90/bbl vs ASCI.
• Qatar set the November Marine Crude Official Selling Price at a premium of USD 1.00/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and Land Crude OSP at a premium of USD 0.85/bbl vs Oman/Dubai.
• Iraq’s Kerala refinery is undergoing extensive maintenance which started on September 25th and is currently non-operational with the maintenance expected to last for around a month, according to a source with direct knowledge cited by Reuters.
• Goldman Sachs sees Brent to trade in the USD 70-85/bbl range and forecasts an average price of USD 77/bbl in Q4 2024 and USD 76/bbl for 2025. Goldman Sachs added that assuming a 2mln bpd 6-month disruption to Iranian supply, it estimates that Brent could temporarily rise to a peak of USD 90/bbl if OPEC rapidly offsets the shortfall.
• NHC said Milton is strengthening over the Southern Gulf of Mexico, storm surge and and hurricane watches issued for portions of Florida
• NHC said tropical storm Milton is about 845 miles west-southwest of Tampa Florida and that the risk of life-threatening impacts is increasing for portions of Florida’s west coast, while NHC said Milton is expected to become a major hurricane in the next day or so.
• BP (BP/ LN) abandons 2030 oil and gas output reduction targets, via Reuters citing sources; BP eyes investments in Iraq, Kuwait and Gulf of Mexico to boost oil output in the coming years.
• Shell (SHEL LN) Q3 update note: The Chemicals sub-segment adjusted earnings are expected to reflect a marginal loss in Q3 2024.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Israeli media: Raising the state of high alert as more rockets expected from Gaza”, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel opposition leader Lapid calls to attack Iran’s oil facilities, via Walla News’s Elster.
• Hamas claims the latest strike on Tel Aviv and Rishon Lezion, via Al Jazeera. These rockets were reportedly fired from Gaza. Five rockets fired at the Tel Aviv area and Iron Dome were detected, some of which were intercepted. Israel media report “A number of people injured as a result”
• “Palestinian resistance factions: There is still a lot of strategic consequences for the enemy in the coming days”, according to Al Jazeera.
• “IDF announces the start of a focused and specific ground operation in southern Lebanon”, according to Al Arabiya
• Israel conducted a strike on a mosque in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip over the weekend which killed at least five people and wounded 20, according to Reuters.
• Israel continued its wave of airstrikes on Lebanon in what was the heaviest 24 hours of bombing since it stepped up its campaign against Hezbollah, according to a report on Sunday by FT.
• Lebanese media reported rocket barrages fired from Lebanon towards the Galilee and the Haifa area in Israel, according to Asharq News. Furthermore, sources reported a direct hit on a restaurant in Haifa, Israel after rockets were fired by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon and Israel’s ambulance service separately announced 10 were wounded after Hezbollah fired rockets at Haifa, including one in serious condition.
• Israel’s military issued new evacuation alerts on Sunday for areas in southern Lebanon, while it separately announced that areas of Manara, Yiftah and Malkia in northern Israel declared a closed military zone, according to Reuters.
• Israel’s military announced changes to the Home Front defensive guidelines which apply to several areas including communities near the Gaza Strip in which gatherings of up to 2,000 participants will be permitted and the activity scale will be changed to partial activity in a number of central Galilee communities, while the rest of the country’s guidelines remain unchanged, according to Reuters.
• Israeli military spokesperson said their response to Iran’s missile attack will come at the timing that Israel decides is best, while the spokesperson confirmed that two Israeli airbases were hit in Iran’s attack on Tuesday but noted its air force and the bases remain fully operational, according to Reuters.
• Israel’s military said Hamas official Muhammad Hussein Ali Al-Mahmoud who served as Hamas’s executive authority in Lebanon and Hamas military wing in Lebanon member Said Alaa Naif Ali were killed by an Israeli air strike and operation on Saturday. It was also reported that a Lebanese security source said Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine was ‘unreachable’ since Israeli air strikes on Friday.
• Hamas official said Israel is blocking a ceasefire agreement despite Hamas’s flexibility and urged world countries to stop the double-standards policy over Gaza and Lebanon, according to Reuters.
• Hezbollah political official Qmati said Hezbollah is now being jointly led internally and picking a new Secretary-General will take some time, while he responded that Israel is not allowing a search to progress when asked about the fate of Hezbollah’s senior official Hashem Safieddine.
• Iranian security officials said Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, who travelled to Lebanon, has not been heard from since Israeli strikes on Beirut last week, according to Reuters.
• Iran’s Oil Minister said he was not worried about the crisis amid reports of Israeli threats to strike Iran’s oil facilities, according to Reuters.
• Iran’s Mehr news agency cited an official who stated all flights were cancelled in Iran’s airports from Sunday at 21:00 (18:30BST/13:30EDT) to Monday at 06:00 (03:30BST/22:30EDT). However, it was later reported that all flight restrictions were lifted after ensuring favourable and safe conditions.
• Syria confronted hostile targets in the central region, according to state TV.
• US Defense Secretary Austin spoke with Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant on Sunday to discuss Iran’s destabilising actions in the Middle East and the current situation with Lebanon and Gaza, while they reiterated commitment to deterring Iran and Iranian-backed partners and proxies from taking advantage of the situation, according to the Pentagon.
• US Secretary of Defense Austin will host Israeli Defence Minister Gallant at the Pentagon on October 9th to discuss the ongoing Middle East security developments.
• US State Department commented regarding the latest Israeli bombing of Lebanon in which it stated that military pressure at times can enable diplomacy but could also lead to miscalculation and that Israel has a right to pursue extremist targets but civilian infrastructure should not be targeted. Furthermore, it stated that the US is continuing discussions with Israel and that the US goal is to reach a ceasefire to provide space for diplomacy, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Other

• Ukraine’s air forces said on Sunday morning that Russia launched 87 drones and 3 missiles at Ukraine.
• Russia took control of the settlement of Zhelanne Druhe in Ukraine, according to IFX.
• Netherlands’s Defence Minister pledged EUR 400mln for a drone action plan with Ukraine.
• Chinese hackers reportedly breached US court wiretap systems, according to WSJ.
• Philippine President Marcos said the Philippines and South Korea elevated relations to strategic partnership and he exchanged views with South Korea’s President on regional and international issues including the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, South Korean President Yoon said South Korea concurred with the Philippines a strategic partnership on the security front and will actively take part in Philippine military modernisation.
• China is reportedly likely to launch military drills this week near Taiwan, according to Reuters citing Taiwanese officials, coinciding with Taiwanese President Lai’s speech on October 10th

US Event Calendar

• Oct. 7-Oct. 18: Sept. Monthly Budget Statement, est. $4.3b, prior -$380.1b, revised -$380.1b
• 15:00: Aug. Consumer Credit, est. $12b, prior $25.5b

Central Bank speakers

• 13:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks in at Independent Bankers Assoc of Texas
• 13:50: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Q&A
• 18:00: Fed’s Bostic Moderates Conversation with Steve Koonin
• 18:30: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from what already looks like the start of a sunny day here in Berlin and welcome to a new week with the one we just left behind containing plenty of surprises, twists, and turns. Stronger US data, culminating in a blockbuster payrolls number, and increased geopolitical risk led to the largest weekly increase in US 2yr yields (+36.4bps) since June 2022, the largest weekly increase in Brent (+8.43%) since January 2023, and the largest weekly increase in the Dollar index for over two years.

Meanwhile, even with China closed until tomorrow, the Hang Seng (+10.2% on the week) hit its highest level since March 2022.
We’re currently in-between US payrolls from last Friday and US CPI this Thursday which will be the highlight of this week. The first of these was a knockout report with the headline number up +254k as against expectations of +150k and with the unemployment rate falling a tenth to 4.1% (4.05% unrounded). My colleague Francis Yared always calls payrolls the “random number generator” but even with that caveat it was an impressive report and completely against recent fears. The main impact was a +21.6bps increase in 2yr US yields on Friday and the probability of a 50bps cut next month declining from around 33% to effectively zero in the process. My personal view was always that the amount of rate cuts priced in since mid to late summer was only likely if we had a recession. If we didn’t, then the rates market overall was too pessimistic. I would still say that today.

In terms of moving this argument on, it’s a relatively quiet week in the US apart from Thursday’s CPI but in terms of the main global day-by-day highlights we have the following. Today sees Germany factory orders and Eurozone retail sales, tomorrow sees German Industrial Production, and Swedish CPI, Wednesday sees the last FOMC minutes and a 10yr UST auction, Thursday sees the release of the account of the last ECB meeting, France present its budget proposal, Japanese PPI, German retail sales, Italian industrial production, Norway and Denmark CPI, and a 30yr UST auction, with Friday home to US PPI, the US University of Michigan survey, UK August monthly GDP and US Earnings season kicking off with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon all reporting.

In terms of this week’s US CPI, DB is expecting headline CPI (+0.05% forecast vs. +0.19% previously, consensus +0.1%) to be tame with core (+0.24% vs. +0.28%, consensus +0.2%) edging lower but more elevated than headline. If DB is correct, headline YoY CPI would dip a couple of tenths to 2.3%, with core staying around the same level at 3.2%. However, the six-month annualised core rate would fall from 2.7% to 2.4%. Rents will again take centre stage after recent strength. As for PPI on Friday, DB and consensus expect headline (+0.1% vs. +0.2% last month) and core (+0.2% vs. 0.3% last month) to be directionally similar to CPI. The market will as ever pay closest attention to the categories that feed into the core PCE deflator – namely, health care services, airfares and portfolio management. Staying with inflation, Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will have inflation expectations which last month picked up a tenth to 3.1% for the long-run measure but fell the same amount to 2.7% for the 1yr measure.

As you’ll see in the day-by-day calendar of events, it’s also a busy week of Fed speakers. So it’ll be interesting to see how they all react to the bumper payrolls print. The last FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be a bit stale but may give us a better understanding as to how policy might evolve under various scenarios.

As noted above, Friday will mark the start of the Q3 earnings season with several US banks releasing results. Samsung, PepsiCo and BlackRock also report throughout the week. Our equity strategists put out a preview of the upcoming earnings season here. They expect S&P 500 earnings growth to slow from 11.8% in Q2 to 9% in Q3, driven by a narrow group of sectors such as energy and mega cap growth & tech, with growth for the others staying steady in the mid-single digits.

Asian equity markets are strong this morning with the Nikkei up +2.1% and the Topix rising +1.9%. The Kospi (+1.52%), Hang Seng (+1.15%) and S&P/ASX 200 (+0.7%) are also strong. US futures are fairly flat. The Yen had briefly nudged up above 149 earlier this morning, the weakest since early August but has since rallied to be +0.15% higher at 148.44.

Looking ahead in Asia, three central banks are scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions this week: the Bank of Korea (Friday), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Reserve Bank of India (both Wednesday).

Remember also that today is the one-year anniversary of the attacks by Hamas on Israel and with the region of high alert following last week’s attacks on Israel from Iran, we are subject to events and risks this week. Oil has actually started the week a touch lower following on from weakness late on Friday after President Biden publicly tried to persuade Israel from attacking Iran’s oil fields.

Looking back at last week now, risk appetite took a hit thanks to mounting geopolitical risk in the Middle East, even as the macro data turned decisively more positive. That was particularly evident from Friday’s US jobs report, with fears of a recession continuing to decline. Markets had been pricing in 34bps of cuts for the Fed’s November meeting prior to the release, so a 35% likelihood of a 50bp cut, but that fell to just 25bps by the close on Friday and effectively wiping out the pricing of 50. And looking further out the curve, an entire rate cut was taken out of the 2025 profile, with the rate priced in by December 2025 moving up +26bps on Friday alone.

With a recession being priced out, that led to a massive sell-off in US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield up +21.8bps on Friday and +36.4bps over the week as a whole, leaving it at 3.92% by the close on Friday. That made it the biggest weekly gain for the 2yr yield since June 2022, when the Fed was about to accelerate to a 75bps hiking pace. In the meantime, the 10yr yield was up +21.6bps over the week, and +12.1bps on Friday, taking it up to 3.97%, which is its highest level since early August.

That pattern was echoed globally, albeit to a lesser extent. For instance, the 10yr bund yield ended the week up +7.7bps (+6.6bps Friday) at 2.21%, even as investors grew more confident that the ECB would cut rates at their October meeting. That confidence partly came about thanks to continued falls in inflation, and the latest data last week showed Euro Area headline inflation was beneath the ECB’s target in September for the first time in over three years.

Geopolitics was the other major theme last week, as growing tensions in the Middle East led to a significant rise in oil prices. In fact, Brent crude ended the week up +8.43% (+0.55% Friday) at $78.05/bbl, marking its strongest weekly gain since January 2023. The rising geopolitical risk premium coupled with stronger US data saw the US Dollar index rise every day last week to post its strongest weekly gain in over two years (+2.13%).

Lastly, equities saw a mixed performance, with the boost from stronger data narrowly outweighing the geopolitical fears for US stocks. The S&P 500 just about posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain (+0.22%), thanks to a +0.90% increase following payrolls on Friday. In Europe, the sentiment was more negative, with the STOXX 600 down -1.80% (+0.44% Friday), whilst Germany’s DAX fell by a similar -1.81% (+0.55% Friday). However, the Hang Seng surged by another +10.20% last week (+2.82% Friday), building on its +13.00% gain from the previous week to close at its highest level since March 2022.
Day-by-day calendar of events

Monday October 7

Data: US August consumer credit, China September foreign reserves, Japan August leading index, coincident index, Germany August factory orders, Eurozone August retail sales
Central banks: Fed’s Kashkari, Bowman, Bostic and Musalem speak, ECB’s Cipollone, Lane, Nagel and Escriva speak

Tuesday October 8

Data: US September NFIB small business optimism, August trade balance, Japan August labor cash earnings, household spending, BoP current account and trade balance, September Economy Watchers survey, Germany August industrial production, France August current account balance, trade balance, Canada August international merchandise trade, Sweden September CPI
Central banks: Fed’s Kugler, Bostic and Collins speak, ECB’s Nagel speaks
Earnings: Samsung Electronics, PepsiCo
Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday October 9

Data: US August wholesale trade sales, Japan September machine tool orders, Germany August trade balance
Central banks: Fed FOMC meeting minutes, Jefferson, Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee, Collins and Daly speak, ECB’s Villeroy and Elderson speak, RBNZ decision
Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($39bn, reopening)

Thursday October 10

Data: US September CPI, initial jobless claims, UK September RICS house price balance, Japan September PPI, bank lending, Germany August retail sales, Italy August industrial production, Norway and Denmark September CPI, Sweden August GDP indicator
Central banks: Fed’s Barkin and Williams speak, ECB account of the September meeting
Earnings: Domino’s Pizza, Fast Retailing, Seven & I
Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($22bn, reopening)

Friday October 11

Data: US September PPI, October University of Michigan survey, UK August monthly GDP, Japan September M2, M3, Germany August current account balance, Canada September jobs report, August building permits
Central banks: Fed’s Goolsbee and Logan speak, BoC’s business outlook
Earning: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon

Pfizer shares are up in premarket trading in New York after a report from the Wall Street Journal revealed that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a $1 billion stake in the struggling pharmaceutical giant, aiming for a major turnaround. Pfizer’s stock had skyrocketed during the pandemic, driven by new Covid vaccine sales, but with the pandemic over and no imminent biothreat to the nation, shares trade at 2020 lows. 

Citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, WSJ said Starboard had taken a billion-dollar stake in the pharmaceutical giant and approached two former Pfizer executives, Ian Read and Frank D’Amelio, to assist in advancing a new turnaround plan. 

Sources did not share specifics about Starboard’s plans or interactions with the company.

A Pfizer spokesperson told MarketWatch, “We do not comment on market speculation or rumor.” Starboard did not respond to comments from MarketWatch during the overnight hours. The WSJ report was published on Sunday evening. 

Pfizer has been trying to persuade investors that its other drugs can offset the slide in Covid vaccine and pill revenue. This has led to shares plunging by over 50% in just a few short years. Shares are up more than 3% this AM in premarket trading.

MarketWatch noted, “Pfizer easily beat second-quarter earnings estimates in July, raising its yearly revenue and profit outlook, and in August launched a direct-to-consumer platform for patients. But the pharma giant took a blow last month when it pulled a sickle-cell treatment from the market over a possible link to deaths.” 

Also in July, Pfizer released “encouraging” data from its once-daily anti-obesity pill, ‘danuglipron,’ as it attempts to continue expanding its product pipeline. And the company has been betting big on its cancer drugs. 

CEO Albert Bourla has been under intense pressure to turn the sinking ship around after he overestimated future demand for Covid-related products. Shares are trading below the 2019 levels when he became CEO. 

The silver lining is that only a small number of Americans were foolish enough to opt in for their 12th Pfizer Covid booster shot after seeing countless news reports and even some experiencing firsthand accounts of friends and family members who experienced adverse reactions to the shots. Bourla is now learning the brutal reality of selling products that the government and corporations can no longer mandate for use.

Submitted by Jesse Colombo of The Bubble Bubble Report

A report from the Russian news agency Interfax last week reveals Russia’s plans to substantially increase its precious metals reserves in the coming years. The report states that Russia’s State Fund plans to acquire gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and gemstones. Russia’s decision to add silver to its reserves distinguishes it from most other central banks, which have largely focused on accumulating gold while overlooking silver. Along with several other bullish factors, Russia’s silver purchases could be a key driver in pushing prices to $50 and beyond.

Bloomberg’s translation of the original Interfax report reveals that Russia’s State Fund plans to allocate 51.5 billion rubles (or $538.7 million) to precious metals and gemstones in 2025, with the same amount set for 2026 and 2027:

In recent years, central banks worldwide have rapidly diversified their reserves, with gold being the primary beneficiary. In 2023, central banks added 1,037 tons of gold, just shy of the record-breaking 1,082 tons purchased in 2022. Central banks added a net 483 tons of gold in the first half of 2024, a 5% increase over the previous record of 460 tons set during the same period in 2023.

Amid surging global debt and a rapidly expanding money supply, central banks are wisely diversifying their reserves into hard assets like gold and, now, silver. As fiat currencies rapidly lose value and government bonds become increasingly risky, these assets offer a safer alternative. It’s entirely logical for Russia to further diversify its reserves with an assortment of precious metals, especially in light of the economic sanctions that have cut the country off from the SWIFT banking system.

While the Interfax report did not specify how much silver Russia’s State Fund plans to acquire, this move is noteworthy as Russia becomes one of the first countries to diversify its reserves into silver. With gold prices continuing to surge, other nations may also consider adding silver to their reserves—a trend that, alongside numerous bullish factors, could drive silver to $50 an ounce and potentially much higher.

The latest news from Russia reinforces the technical chart patterns I’ve been tracking, which suggest that silver could reach $50 and beyond in the near future. In a recent article, I highlighted how silver’s monthly chart reveals a breakout from a massive, two-decade-long triangle pattern. This breakout signals that silver is on the verge of a powerful bull market:

If that isn’t exciting enough, silver’s logarithmic chart, dating back to the 1960s, reveals a cup and handle pattern that suggests silver could reach several hundred dollars per ounce during this bull market. However, a close above the $50 resistance is necessary to confirm this scenario.

The long-term gold-to-silver ratio chart indicates that silver is currently extremely undervalued relative to gold. If the ratio were to revert to its historical average of 52.8 since 1915, even without any increase in gold’s price, silver would be valued at a solid $50 per ounce.

Adjusting silver’s price for inflation further highlights how undervalued it is by historical standards. During the Hunt brothers-induced spike in 1980, silver reached an inflation-adjusted price of $143.54. In the 2011 bull market, driven by quantitative easing, it hit $68.04. Currently trading at just $32.20, silver has significant room to rise if it’s to catch up with these previous inflation-adjusted peaks.

Russia’s recent move to add silver to its state reserves signals a potential turning point for the white metal, setting it apart from other central banks that have primarily focused on gold. This decision, along with ongoing bullish trends, should significantly impact silver prices. As global economic uncertainty pushes central banks to diversify into hard assets, silver is poised to benefit, especially with technical charts showing signs of a powerful bull run. With Russia leading the charge and other countries potentially following suit, silver could break through its long-standing resistance levels, reaching $50 and possibly climbing even higher. These developments, coupled with historical trends and inflation-adjusted valuations, suggest that silver is severely undervalued and has substantial upside potential in the coming years.

If you enjoyed this article, please visit Jesse’s Substack for more content like this…

It looks like the “Make America Healthy Again” movement could be showing up right on time…

At least according to one registered dietitian nutritionist in Los Angeles, who recently took to Fox News to lay out the risks from ultra-processed foods in the American diet. 

Ilana Muhlstein said on Fox news that America’s diet is 60% ultra-processed, but that kids consume even more than that. 

“With children, it’s actually over 70%. That is really wild when you think about it,” she said. “What we eat defines how our cells work, how our organs work, and we’re seeing a strong decline in mental health and well-being.”

And a recent BMJ study found that 60% of Americans’ daily calories come from ultra-processed foods (UPFs), which are linked to 32 poor health outcomes, including mental, respiratory, cardiovascular, and metabolic issues like cancer, heart disease, and type 2 diabetes, according to Fox.

Muhlstein added: “We’re actually seeing that this next generation might be the first generation to … have a shorter lifespan than their parents due to nutrition and lifestyle factors.”

A nutritious diet boosts children’s mental well-being, behavior, and academic performance, says Muhlstein, a nutritionist and instructor of “Raising Balanced Eaters.”

While cutting ultra-processed foods entirely is unrealistic, Muhlstein advocates for reversing the typical 70/30 ratio of processed to whole foods, recommending an “80/20 rule”—80% whole foods like eggs, fish, and vegetables, and 20% indulgent foods like chips and ice cream.

For healthier options, Muhlstein suggests swapping ketchup for marinara sauce on chicken nuggets and fries, opting for chicken strips over mechanically processed nuggets, and choosing hamburgers over nitrite-laden hot dogs. Each small change reduces the overall level of food processing.

The nutritionist warns that poor eating habits won’t resolve on their own and encourages exposing kids to diverse flavors and textures early on.

The Fox News report says that sitting down for family meals—without screens—can reduce the risk of eating disorders and promote a healthy relationship with food. Just three to five family meals a week can make a positive difference, fostering better eating habits and family connection.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

In a landmark decision, the top court in the European Union (EU) has ruled that Facebook parent company Meta cannot use personal data gathered from its own platforms or from external sources for targeted advertising without adhering to strict limits and restrictions under the bloc’s privacy laws.

The ruling, hailed as a victory by privacy advocates, was issued on Oct. 4 by the Court of Justice of the European Union, in response to a lawsuit brought by Austrian activist Max Schrems, who has long campaigned for stricter enforcement of the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

Schrems accused Facebook of processing his sensitive personal data to serve him with targeted ads in violation of the GDPR, specifically the data minimization rule, which requires companies to limit the amount of personal data collected and stored to what is strictly necessary.

The court sided with Schrems, stating that Facebook parent Meta’s data practices violated GDPR principles. Meta, according to the court, aggregated and processed vast amounts of user data for advertising purposes without appropriate restrictions on time or the type of data involved.

The judges wrote in their ruling that the relevant provisions of the GDPR “must be interpreted as meaning that the principle of data minimisation provided for therein precludes any personal data obtained by a controller, such as the operator of an online social network platform, from the data subject or third parties and collected either on or outside that platform, from being aggregated, analysed and processed for the purposes of targeted advertising without restriction as to time and without distinction as to type of data.”

The court’s decision highlighted the determination that even users who consent to personalized ads cannot have their data processed indefinitely, as Meta had been doing.

Katharina Raabe-Stuppnig, Schrems’ lawyer, expressed satisfaction with the ruling, while emphasizing the wider implications of the decision for the online advertising industry, noting that other companies operating without stringent data deletion practices will also be affected.

“Meta has basically been building a huge data pool on users for 20 years now, and it is growing every day. However, EU law requires ‘data minimisation,’” she said in a statement. “Following this ruling only a small part of Meta’s data pool will be allowed to be used for advertising—even when users consent to ads. This ruling also applies to any other online advertisement company, that does not have stringent data deletion practices.”

In response to the court’s decision, Meta issued a statement saying it was reviewing the judgment while reaffirming its stated commitment to privacy.

“Everyone using Facebook has access to a wide range of settings and tools that allow people to manage how we use their information,” the company said in a statement, adding that it “takes privacy very seriously.”

The ruling is the latest setback for Meta in Europe, where it has faced numerous legal and regulatory challenges in recent years. The tech giant has been at the center of multiple investigations, particularly around compliance with the GDPR.

The EU’s focus extends beyond data privacy to include concerns about how digital platforms’ algorithms and system designs impact behavior. Meta’s recommender systems, which power its advertising-driven business model, are under scrutiny for potentially fostering addictive behaviors, particularly in minors.

Russia’s defense ministry (MoD) announced this weekend the capture of another village in eastern Ukraine, bringing Russian troops much closer to the strategic Ukrainian logistical hub of Pokrovsk.

Russian troops “liberated the settlement of Zhelannoye Vtoroye” in the Donetsk region, the MoD said. Ukrainians often reference the same village by the name of Zhelanne Druge. The settlement is located close to Pokrovsk, which Russian forces have been steadily progressing toward as an ultimate prize which would bring them into easy control over the whole of Donetsk.

The town’s fall is all but inevitable, as a stream of Western reports have suggested of late: “Russia knocked out around 80% of critical infrastructure in the town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Ukraine’s east, as Moscow’s troops inched forward, a local official said on Friday,” Reuters reported.

“Serhiy Dobriak, Pokrovsk’s military administration head, said Russian forces were at about 7 km (4 miles) from the town, which is at an intersection of roads and a railway that makes it an important logistics point for the military and for civilians in the eastern Donetsk region,” the report continued.

The same Ukrainian official said, “The enemy is leaving us without power, without water, without gas. Prepares us for the winter, so to say.”

Kiev has said that during weekend fighting, five Ukrainian civilians were killed by Russian shelling in the south and east of the country:

Prosecutors in the Donetsk region said two civilians, a 65-year-old woman and an 86-year-old man, were killed in the city of Toretsk and the village of Velyka Novosilka.

In the Zaporizhzhia region, governor Ivan Fyodorov said two men aged 44 and 46 were killed by Russian shelling in the village of Mala Tokmachka.