Chinese EV Makers Will End An Already Stellar Year With A Continued Sales Surge, Analysts Predict

Chinese EV Makers Will End An Already Stellar Year With A Continued Sales Surge, Analysts Predict

Despite a massive price war and European nations doing their best to create a trade war, the Chinese EV market still looks like it will easily be crowned the best electric auto market in the world heading into the final months of 2024.

China’s major EV makers ended Q3 stronger than last year, with solid deliveries reducing the need for discounts, according to a new report from Bloomberg

Now, analysts predict a sales surge in Q4. EV and hybrid sales are booming, driven by expanded subsidies, boosting stock prices and Tesla’s best Chinese quarter. In September, EVs and hybrids made up about 53% of new car sales.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanna Chen commented: “Industry demand has been better than expected since the third quarter following China’s beefed-up subsidies but many automakers still need a major push in the fourth quarter to hit their annual sales targets.”

She continued: “The first nine months usually contribute 70% of annual car sales and automakers below that threshold are under greater pressure to step up discounts in the quarter.”

Bloomberg writes that EV and hybrid sales are soaring, boosted by expanded subsidies encouraging trade-ins of older cars. This policy led to Tesla’s best Chinese quarter, with EVs and hybrids comprising 53% of new car sales in September.

Chinese EV sales are expected to rise further following a recent directive for government agencies to increase purchases of new energy vehicles. For example, Zhejiang Leapmotor, Nio, and Zeekr are thriving through major deals and brand expansions. Top-sellers BYD and Geely are on course to hit ambitious sales targets of 4 million and 2 million, respectively. BYD’s earlier pricing strategies triggered months of market-wide discounting, the article notes

Yale Zhang, managing director at Shanghai-based consultancy AutoForesight, added: “I do not see a need to launch another price war. Most of them are in pretty good shape. The majority of these NEV or carmakers will reach their volumes.”

The fourth quarter is set for a surge in auto spending, driven by new EV launches and a year-end rush to use trade-in subsidies, according to Yuqian Ding of HSBC Qianhai Securities. Ding’s data shows EVs need fewer discounts, while gas cars maintain peak discounts of about 22%, the highest in three years. 

European brands like Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW, which had a tough Q3 in China, may resort to deeper price cuts. AutoForesight warns of a potential premium segment price war, with traditional luxury car production down 4% year-over-year, possibly ending 15 years of growth.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 02:45

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Turkiye Debunked Bild’s Fake News About India Reportedly Vetoing Its BRICS Membership Request

Turkiye Debunked Bild’s Fake News About India Reportedly Vetoing Its BRICS Membership Request

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

There was never any reason to take this report seriously in the first place…

German outlet Bild reported late last week that India allegedly vetoed Turkiye’s BRICS membership request over its ties with Pakistan, which prompted Turkiye’s Center for Combating Disinformation to respond by clarifying that the membership process wasn’t even on the Kazan Summit’s agenda. The Turkish foreign policy expert who was quoted in Bild’s article also refuted their report and added that they didn’t include the nuances of his views that he shared with them.

Reputable Indian journalist Sidhant Sibal earlier reported that BRICS agreed to grant Turkiye partnership status together with a dozen other countries, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “everyone is interested in inviting Turkey” to join their association. “BRICS Membership Or Lack Thereof Isn’t Actually That Big Of A Deal” though for the reasons explained in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, namely that anyone can voluntarily coordinate their financial multipolarity policies with the group.

Membership only imbues countries with the right to participate in discussions on this subject whereas partnership status lets them observe these talks in real time while everyone else waits until they’re over to hear about the results. Both have an element of prestige associated with them and that’s why so many countries want to formalize such relations with BRICS. Turkiye considers itself to be a rising power and accordingly believes that it has the right to at least observe their financial multipolarity discussions.

Russia, which hosted this year’s summit, agrees. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was thus invited to participate in the BRICS Plus/Outreach meeting. His country has an important role to play in accelerating financial multipolarity processes due to its transcontinental location and economic influence in the Eurasian Heartland brought about by the “Middle Corridor”. The specific form in which this takes and the degree of coordination with BRICS remain to be seen but this fact exists regardless of that.

India also appreciates Turkiye’s abovementioned role in the global systemic transition despite those two’s disagreements over the unresolved Kashmir Conflict. Its grand strategy aims to carefully multi-align between competing power and influence centers in order to maximally reap the benefits from each. India only decisively takes a side on issues that directly concern its interests, especially those related to national security, since it wants to indefinitely perpetuate this balancing act.

Turkiye’s request to formalize its relationship with BRICS isn’t considered to be something that directly concerns India’s interests, especially not its national security ones, so it was always dubious that it vetoed this even before Turkiye’s Center for Combating Disinformation debunked Bild’s report. India also respects Russia as a state while Modi and Putin are close friends so it would have been scandalous for Delhi to get in the way of Ankara’s plans after Putin invited Erdogan to attend to lobby in support of this.

There’s no credible indication that Russia and India had any sort of disagreement over BRICS expansion during last week’s summit. Bild’s report was therefore bonafide fake news that was published for reasons that only this outlet’s editors can account for if they were honest with the public. Whatever they may be, they were ultimately counterproductive after Turkiye itself debunked their report, which damaged Bild’s reputation and exposed it as more of a tabloid than a reliable source of news and insight.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 10/30/2024 – 02:00

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Escobar: BRICS Make History – Can They Maintain The Momentum?

Escobar: BRICS Make History – Can They Maintain The Momentum?

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

The not so simple twists of fate always allow certain cities to make their mark in History in ineffable ways. Yalta. Bretton Woods. Bandung – a 1955 de-colonization staple. And now Kazan.

The BRICS summit in Kazan, capital of Tatarstan, under the Russian presidency was historic in more ways than one – followed with riveting attention by the whole Global Majority and with perplexity by a great deal of the declining Western order.

It did not change the world – not yet. But Kazan should be seen as the departing station of a high-speed train journey towards the emerging multi-nodal new order. The metaphor was also spatial: the pavilions at the Kazan Expo center “station” holding the summit simultaneously connected to the airport and to the aero-express train to the city.

The rippling effects of BRICS 2024 in Kazan will be perceived for weeks, months and years ahead. Let’s start with the breakthroughs.

The Kazan Manifesto

1.The Kazan Declaration. That is no less than a detailed diplomatic manifesto. Yet because BRICS is not a revolutionary agent – as its members do not share an ideology – arguably the next best strategy is to propose real reform, from the UN Agenda 2030 to the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO, the WHO and the G20 (whose summit is next month in Rio).

The kernel of the Kazan Declaration – which had been debated for months – is to move in practice towards in-depth institutional changes and to reject Hegemony. The Declaration will be presented to the UN Security Council. There’s no doubt the Hegemon will reject it.

This paragraph sums up the reform drive: “We condemn the attempts to subject development to discriminatory politically motivated practices, including but not limited to unilateral coercive measures that are incompatible with the 5 principles of the UN Charter, explicit or implied political conditionality of development assistance, activities, aiming at compromising the multiplicity of international development assistance providers.”

2. The BRICS Outreach session. That was Bandung 1955 on macro-steroids: a microcosm of how the new, really de-colonized, non-unilateral world is being born.

President Putin opened and handed the floor to the leaders and heads of delegations of other 35 nations, most at the highest level, including Palestine, plus the UN Secretary General. Quite a few speeches were nothing short of epic. The session lasted 3h25. It will be circulating all across the Global Majority for years.

The session tied up with the announcement of the new 13 BRICS partners: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkiye, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Vietnam. A strategic tour de force including 4 Southeast Asian powerhouses; the top two Central Asian “stans”; 3 Africans; 2 Latin Americans, and NATO member Turkiye.

3. The Russian BRICS presidency itself. Arguably no other nation would have been able to pull off such a complex and impeccably organized summit, held after over 200 BRICS-related meetings throughout the year across Russia conducted by unnamed sherpas, members of working groups and the BRICs Business Council. Security was massive – for obvious reasons, considering the odds of a false flag/terrorist attack.

4. Connectivity corridors. That is the main geoeconomic theme of Eurasia integration, and Afro-Eurasia integration as well. Putin explicitly named, more than once, the new growth drivers of the near future: Southeast Asia and Africa. Both happen to be key partners of several high-profile Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. Additionally, Putin named the top two connectivity corridors of the future: the Northern Sea Route – which the Chinese describe as the Arctic Silk Road – and the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), where the three drivers are BRICS members Russia, Iran and India.

So that translates as BRICS China crisscrossing Eurasia from east to west while BRICS Russia/Iran/India crisscross it from north to south, with ramifications in all latitudes. And with all the energy add-ons, with Iran positioning itself as a crucial energy hub, opening the finally feasible possibility of building the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, one of the unfinished sagas of what I described in the early 2000s as Pipelineistan.

The Return of the Primakov Triangle

There were immense expectations all across the Global Majority of a major breakthrough in Kazan on alternative payment systems. Realist Russian-Chinese finance tech experts commented they did “not see anything at all except for another round of initiatives about grain exchange, precious metals exchange and investment platform. BRICS Clear is being somehow developed but the rest will not work without proper sovereign infrastructure.”

And that brings us back to the UNIT project – a form of “apolitical money”, anchored in gold and BRICS+ currencies, which was exhaustively discussed by the working groups and reached the Russian Ministry of Finance. The next necessary step is a trial run by a major business conglomerate. That may happen soon, and if successful, will stimulate other major companies in BRICS nations to tag along.

As for the BRICS digital investment platform, it is already a go. Alongside the NDB – the BRICS bank, and Putin encouraged former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to stay on the helm – this will facilitate Global South access to financing without the dreaded IMF/World Bank “structural adjustment” conditionalities. The BRICS grain exchange, establishing clear, transparent rules, will be essential to ensure Global South food security.

The BRICS made it clear that the complex drive towards a new settlement/payment infrastructure is inevitable, but a long work in progress, especially when the G7 – which for all practical purposes is hijacking the agenda for the G20 next month in Rio – wants to finance at least $20 billion of a $50 billion package to Ukraine with proceeds from stolen Russian assets.

And that brings us to the most glaring BRICS problems.

Achieving consensus on difficult dossiers is extremely hard – and may lead, in the long run, to BRICS moving towards an absolute majority mechanism to get things done.

The Brazilian case – vetoing Venezuela as a BRICS partner – did not go down well at all among members, among partners and across the Global South. The current Lula government may be under tremendous pressure by the Hegemon’s Democrat establishment, but that in itself does not explain the decision.

There is a massive anti-BRICS lobby inside the highest levels of the Brazilian government, “facilitated”, as usual, by American NGOs as well as the European Commission (EC), heavily infiltrated among the proverbial comprador elites. Brasilia this year privileged the G20 over BRICS. That foresees trouble for next year, when Brazil assumes the BRICS presidency.

Prospects are not exactly brilliant. The BRICS summit next year is scheduled for July – and the decision seems to be final. That makes no sense – to do the recap of a working agenda in the middle of the year. The official excuse is that Brazil also needs to organize the Cop-30 climate conference in November. So a suggestion will be floated by top Brazilian economist Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr to hold a parallel BRICS wrap-up session during the 2025 G20 summit, which will be held in BRICS member South Africa.

President Putin has been very accommodating – even proposing Dilma Rousseff to remain at the helm of the NDB. Yet the Russian presidency of the NDB technically starts next year; a more suitable candidate for head of the NDB would be Aleksei Mozhin, until recently the Russian representative in the IMF.

There’s a major takeaway of all of the above.

Kazan proved that the driving force of BRICS is actually the notorious Primakov triangle – or RIC (Russia, India, China). It’s now possible to add Iran, and that would make it RIIC. Everything of substance in the inter-connected processes of BRICS integration and Afro-Eurasia integration depends on RIIC.

Saudi Arabia remains an open proposition. Not even Putin answered whether Riyadh is in, out, or over the wall. Diplomatic sources hint MbS is waiting for the result of the US presidential elections. As much as Saudi Arabia’s wealth is invested in the Anglo-American sphere – and can be stolen in no time – relations with the Russia-China strategic partnership at the highest level are excellent.

RIC scored a major hit right before the Kazan summit with Beijing and New Delhi announcing their Ladakh normalization. That was achieved by Russian mediation. Then there’s Turkiye; Erdogan was adamant to stress his BRICS enthusiasm in the few hours he spent in Kazan. Later in Istanbul, scholars confirmed he’s dead serious about Turkiye’s partner status and eventual admission as a full member.

In the language of symbols, the minarets of the Kul Sharif mosque in the Kazan Kremlin were the de facto trademark of the summit: graphic multipolarity in effect. The lands of Islam did get the message – with serious, auspicious repercussions ahead. As for the conductors as the high-speed multi-nodal train leaves the station, all attention should be focused on RIIC. May all the Global South have a safe trip.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 23:25

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“Complete Lawlessness”: Seattle Residents Concerned With “Chaos” Cause By Illegal Street Racing

“Complete Lawlessness”: Seattle Residents Concerned With “Chaos” Cause By Illegal Street Racing

We’ve already seen it wreak havoc in cities like Philadelphia, and now illegal street racing is taking over another Democrat-run, Democrat-DA led city: Seattle. And the chaos is starting to concern residents.

Seattle police are seeking drivers involved in two weekend “street takeovers” that caused traffic jams and alarmed nearby residents and workers, KING5 Seattle reported on Monday. 

Resident Clay Church said: “Felt like chaos and you something you see at a frat party. Ten fireworks I saw. Multiple were thrown at the cop cars directly. That’s kind of when the cops backed another block. [It was] really loud between that and the cars, complete chaos.”

“One hundred to 150 people out here with their cars essentially, drag racing, doing donuts. Kind of complete lawlessness, really,” Church added.

Church described the early Sunday street takeover outside his apartment at 3rd Ave and Clay St. Around 1 a.m., he saw people blocking the intersection with lime scooters and orange cones.

“We see things on Friday nights. But you don’t expect this type of thing,” another resident said. “We were very nervous someone was going to get hit by a car. Just with the mass amount of people out there and with these cars just spinning.” 

According to KING5, staff reported the street takeover lasted under 20 minutes. Tower camera footage showed a bystander throwing an object at a car, sparking a conflict before police intervened.

“They need to understand what folks go through who do live in downtown and understand that it’s just not acceptable,” Church concluded. 

A statement from the Mayor’s office read: “Mayor Harrell believes it is critical that we work to prevent this behavior and hold offenders accountable using all tools available, including law enforcement efforts, new safety technologies, and legislation recently passed by the City Council. We would defer to SPD on the specifics of these particular events and law enforcement tactics.”

Maybe Seattle residents will think twice before urging defunding the police the next time we have a “Summer of Love”…

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 23:00

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What China’s “Joint Sword-2024B” Military Drill Tells Us

What China’s “Joint Sword-2024B” Military Drill Tells Us

Authored by Carl Schuster via The Epoch Times,

Involving over 125 aircraft and 34 coast guard and naval units, Beijing’s recent military drills around Taiwan give us some insights into Xi Jinping’s plans for forcing the island’s reunification with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

This latest intimidation operation was intended to warn Taipei and its potential supporters that Beijing has the capability and will to isolate the democratically governed island from any external support or assistance. However, it also signaled that Xi intends to present the initial phase of a violent reunification effort as one justified under international law.

For example, the People’s Armed Police Coast Guard’s (PAPCG’s) opening participation indicates China may launch that gambit by declaring a maritime exclusion or quarantine zone around Taiwan. Coast Guard cutters not only circumnavigated the main island of Taiwan, they also patrolled in the waters off Taiwan’s islands just off China’s shores. Nor was this the first time the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command has incorporated PAPCG and Maritime Security Agency (MSA) patrol craft in its exercises opposite Taiwan three times since 2022.

Seven PAPCG cutters participated in this latest exercise, and a similar number were active in last summer’s as well. Additionally, last August, the MSA’s largest patrol ship, the Type 918 Hai Xun 06, challenged a Taiwan ferry going the offshore island of Matsu. It did not board the ferry but demanded that it declare its cargo and destination and then escorted it outside Taiwan’s declared territorial waters. The patrol ship presented an intimidating presence for the ferry’s crew and passengers. The growing participation of PRC maritime law enforcement units is significant.

In effect, Beijing is at least considering a maritime law enforcement operation to isolate Taiwan from external support. It will not declare a blockade since that is an act of war typically employed against a hostile sovereign state, a status Beijing denies Taipei. Instead, Beijing argues that Taiwan is a renegade province, making all of its islands, air space, and waters sovereign PRC territory in “rebel” hands. Beijing claims that Taiwan’s status gives China the right under international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), to control access to that territory and regulate commerce and resources within Taipei’s economic exclusion zone.

Under that mindset, Beijing can argue that any maritime quarantine it declares against Taiwan constitutes a reasonable domestic law enforcement operation authorized under international law. It can use that declaration to monitor, intercept, and search shipping entering the quarantine zone to ensure the cargos contain no contraband or materials that Beijing considers supportive of the rebellion. Xi may hope to depict any foreign attempt to assist Taipei under those circumstances as an act of war violating Beijing’s right to re-establish its authority over a province in rebellion. That may give some Western leaders pause since they may have influential “legal experts” who accept Beijing’s interpretation.

China’s PAPCG is the world’s largest coast guard, and the waters around Taiwan off-China’s shore islands will be reinforced by the PRC’s Maritime Safety Administration’s units. Additionally, as is often the case in the South China Sea, the PAPCG will enjoy the backing of the responsible PLA Theater Command. The PLA Navy and Air Force will maintain patrols, presence, and readiness to respond to any challenges beyond the PAPCG’s capabilities. Equally important, recent missile tests by the PLA Rocket Force and past participation in Eastern Theater Command Exercises indicate preparations for potential anti-Taiwan operations if required.

The 13-hour-long Joint Sword-2024B was neither as large nor as complex as China’s earlier intimidation exercises against Taiwan. Still, it does demonstrate Beijing’s aggressive intentions and provides some potential insights into how it intends to achieve them. The PRC employs a more adroitly crafted narrative and operates with greater care and subtlety than America’s traditional enemies. It will present its acts as legitimate and lawful actions necessary to ending a rebellion on its territory. All of its military operations have a political narrative and purpose behind them.

Beijing’s “Three Warfares” doctrine integrates media, public opinion, and legal activities to shape the legal and political environment in its favor. The PRC often presents a positive legal façade to divide its opposition and hide its true intentions. Exposing what’s behind the façade is critical to deterring Xi’s aggressive plans. That may be the greatest challenge the United States and its allies face in deterring Xi’s destabilizing designs in the Western Pacific.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 22:35

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The Most Devastating COVID Report So Far

The Most Devastating COVID Report So Far

Authored by Jayanta Bhattacharya via The Brownstone Institute,

The House report on HHS Covid propaganda is devastating. The Biden administration spent almost $1 billion to push falsehoods about Covid vaccines, boosters, and masks on the American people. If a pharma company had run the campaign, it would have been fined out of existence.

HHS engaged a PR firm, the Fors Marsh Group (FMG), for the propaganda campaign.

The main goal was to increase Covid vax uptake.

The strategy:

1. Exaggerate Covid mortality risk

2. Downplay the fact that there was no good evidence that the Covid vax stops transmission. 

The propaganda campaign extended beyond vax uptake and included exaggerating mask efficacy and pushing for social distancing and school closures.

Ultimately, since the messaging did not match reality, the campaign collapsed public trust in public health.

The PR firm (FMG) drew most of its faulty science from the CDC’s “guidance,” which ignored the FDA’s findings on the vaccine’s limitations, as well as scientific findings from other countries that contradicted CDC groupthink.

The report details the CDC’s mask flip-flopping through the years. It’s especially infuriating to recall the CDC’s weird, anti-scientific, anti-human focus on masking toddlers with cloth masks into 2022.

President Biden’s Covid advisor Ashish K. Jha waited until Dec. 2022 (right after leaving government service) to tell the country that “[t]here is no study in the world that shows that masks work that well.” What took him so long?

In 2021, former CDC director, Rochelle Walensky rewrote CDC guidance on social distancing at the behest of the national teachers’ union, guaranteeing that schools would remain closed to in-person learning for many months.

During this period, the PR firm FMG put out ads telling parents that schools would close unless kids masked up, stayed away from friends, and got Covid-vaccinated.

In March 2021, even as the CDC told the American people that the vaxxed did not need to mask, the PR firm ran ads saying that masks were still needed, even for the vaxxed. “It’s not time to ease up” we were told, in the absence of evidence any of that did any good.

In 2021, to support the Biden/Harris administration’s push for vax mandates, the PR firm pushed the false idea that the vax stopped Covid transmission. When people started getting “breakthrough” infections, public trust in public health collapsed.

Later, when the FDA approved the vax for 12 to 15-year-old kids, the PR firm told parents that schools could open in fall 2021 only if they got their kids vaccinated. These ads never mentioned side effects like myocarditis due to the vax.

HHS has scrubbed the propaganda ads from this era from its web pages. It’s easy to see why. They are embarrassing. They tell kids, in effect, that they should treat other kids like biohazards unless they are vaccinated.

When the Delta variant arrived, the PR firm doubled down on fear-mongering, masking, and social distancing.

In September 2021, CDC director Walensky overruled the agency’s external experts to recommend the booster to all adults rather than just the elderly. The director’s action was “highly unusual” and went beyond the FDA’s approval of the booster for only the elderly.

The PR campaign and the CDC persistently overestimated the mortality risk of Covid infection in kids to scare parents into vaccinating their children with the Covid vax.

In Aug. 2021, the military imposed its Covid vax mandate, leading to 8,300 servicemen being discharged. Since 2023, the DOD has been trying to get the discharged servicemen to reenlist. What harm has been done to American national security by the vax mandate?

The Biden/Harris administration imposed the OSHA, CMS, and military vax mandates, even though the CDC knew that the Delta variant evaded vaccine immunity. The PR campaign studiously avoided informing Americans about waning vaccine efficacy in the face of variants.

The propaganda campaign hired celebrities and influencers to “persuade” children to get the Covid vax.

I think if a celebrity is paid to advertise a faulty product, that celebrity should be partially liable if the product harms some people.

In the absence of evidence, the propaganda campaign ran ads telling parents that the vaccine would prevent their kids from getting Long Covid.

With the collapse in public trust in the CDC, parents have begun to question all CDC advice. Predictably, the HHS propaganda campaign has led to a decline in the uptake of routine childhood vaccines.

The report makes several recommendations, including formally defining the CDC’s core mission to focus on disease prevention, forcing HHS propaganda to abide by the FDA’s product labeling rules, and revamping the process of evaluating vaccine safety.

Probably the most important recommendation: HHS should never again adopt a policy of silencing dissenting scientists in an attempt to create an illusion of consensus in favor of CDC groupthink.

You can find a copy of the full House report here.

The HHS must take its findings seriously if there is any hope for public health to regain public.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 22:10

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/bZHTn97 Tyler Durden

Citadel’s Griffin: “Expectation Today Trump Wins White House”

Citadel’s Griffin: “Expectation Today Trump Wins White House”

At Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative summit, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin and Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman shared their views on the upcoming US presidential election, which is now just six days away.

The expectation today is that Donald Trump will win the White House,” Griffin told the panel at Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative summit, adding, “We are at that moment of peak uncertainty. It is a race that Trump is favored to win, but it is almost a coin toss.”

During the same panel discussion, Schwarzman weighed in on US politics, indicating, “I don’t know who’s going to win the presidency … but it appears Trump is in a much better base of knowledge of how that job works and how to be efficient and effective in doing it.”

Earlier, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon told Bloomberg TV, “We do have an election, and there will be policy decisions coming,” adding, “Those will impact the trajectory in 2025 and 2026.” 

Equity and bond markets have already moved in directions that indicate a possible Trump victory. We detailed this in length for pro subs in a note titled “These Are Goldman’s Favorite Election Trades.”

That note highlighted Goldman’s Republican Policy pair (GSP24REP), up 7% on the year, while the Democratic Policy pair (GSP24DEM) is down 2.3%. 

Weeks ago, we showed how Polymarket’s Trump election odds influenced the bond market. 

The current Polymarket Trump-Harris spread is massively in favor of a Trump win.

“The mainstream lost its monopoly over media. Now it’s losing its monopoly over polls, prediction markets and shaping public opinion as trust shifts to independent new entities,” we noted on X. 

According to the national polling aggregate by RealClearPolitics, Trump is holding a slight lead over Harris. 

While Griffin and Schwarzman shared their view on the upcoming election on Tuesday, Elon Musk has gone all-in for Trump.

It appears America’s leading entrepreneurs want real leadership and stability after 3.5 years of uncertainty and chaos with the Biden-Harris regime. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 21:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/nFlz8CS Tyler Durden

The Importance Of Discipline

The Importance Of Discipline

Authored by Christian Milord via The Epoch Times,

What does the undisciplined life look like? The picture that comes to mind would be an individual who tends to be disorganized in a number of behavioral dimensions. They might be slovenly in appearance, arrive late to appointments, avoid responsibilities, have a short attention span, give in to every impulse, take shortcuts, lack focus and purpose, and so on.

The undisciplined life doesn’t arrive in a vacuum. It can develop in a young person’s life perhaps due to a lack of firm role models around to steer the youngster toward self-control and the hard work of character building.

If an individual fails to form disciplined habits, he or she can more easily be buffeted back and forth by the winds of fate.

It takes real effort to become organized and reliable. In other words, it takes discipline to become disciplined!

The Disciplined Life

No one needs to be undisciplined forever. An individual can learn self-control through experience (trial and error) and observation. One does not need to isolate oneself or become a monk in order to form disciplined habits. Constructive routines can be formulated regardless of the environment one lives in.

If you are tired of being pushed around in life, developing disciplined habits will help you to take control of your life in an assertive manner. Implementing these habits starts in the morning. Over time, I developed a routine of rising very early in the morning and taking in some moderate exercise to get the circulation going. This is a purposeful start to a new day as you are eager to plunge into the day’s activities without the need for coffee. Morning prayers are also beneficial.

Another facet of a structured life involves diet and nutrition. Consuming a healthy diet in order to stay fit requires discipline and the ability to resist the temptation of junk food that bombards us at every turn. Most folks are aware of what constitutes a healthy diet, but they have a hard time sticking to it. Self-control helps you to stay on the narrow path of good nutrition, although we all have lapses from time to time.

Diet, exercise, and sufficient rest can help us to be confident and healthy as we dress appropriately, maintain personal hygiene, and utilize our energy wisely each day.

Turning off electronic devices an hour or two before retiring for the night also bestows restful sleep. None of these habits come easily, but once they are part of one’s daily schedule, it becomes easier to abide by them, because you witness the positive outcomes.

On a more practical level, delayed gratification is a positive principle that comes from a disciplined life. If we are careful at how we spend our income, we can learn how to invest and save more for the future so that we are less inclined to incur debts that can lead to downward mobility. The reckless running up of credit card debt is a prime example of a path that can send one to a poorhouse.

Disciplining the mind is another aspect of a disciplined life. Sometimes we are faced with information overload, and it can be a challenge to quiet our thoughts down and focus on what is important. This demands practice and mindful breathing exercises to eliminate the stress and invite relaxation in. Muddled thinking can give way to clarity of thought.

The mind is a powerful instrument that can either sabotage our goals or guide us on the road toward self-governance. If harnessed properly, the mind can enable us to help other folks more effectively as we develop social skills. By assisting others, you end up helping yourself as well.

Practicing self-discipline can also lead one to a greater spiritual awareness regarding nature and the wonders of God’s creation. Prayer from the heart can strengthen us to cope with the hardships and rejections we all face during our lives. The key is to not give up when faced with obstacles that sometimes arrive two or three at a time.

I’ve lost count of the number of occupational and personal hurdles I’ve encountered over the years. You learn to grow a thicker skin as the problems roll off your back. Indeed, sometimes these closed doors can point to other opportunities. Suffering can be unpleasant, because we all have feelings, but it’s a part of life that can help us to be empathetic toward other folks.

Finally, a disciplined life can multiply our chances for success. We learn how to communicate effectively, develop sensory and situational awareness, tame our emotions, embrace lifelong learning, and show gratitude for our blessings. With discipline, we can better organize our lives, yet still have the flexibility to pivot from the structure when necessary. We can also strike a balance between purposeful work and task completion with relaxing leisure time. Self-discipline is part of what comprises a virtuous life.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 20:30

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Trump To Unleash Financial Armageddon On Mexican Drug Cartels If He Wins: We Will Be “Seizing Assets” 

Trump To Unleash Financial Armageddon On Mexican Drug Cartels If He Wins: We Will Be “Seizing Assets” 

Former President Trump reportedly told allies earlier this year that he would covertly deploy Tier 1 US Special Forces operators to Mexico to wipe out drug cartel leadership if he returns to the White House. However, storming the command and control centers of cartels with guns blazing may not be the proper strategy to dismantle these criminal organizations.

“I’m announcing that for the first time under my administration, we are seizing the assets of the criminal gangs and drug cartels and we will use those assets to create a compensation fund to provide restitution for the victims of migrant crime,” Trump said at a press conference on Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago. 

Trump’s comments at Mar-a-Lago suggest if he wins in November, the US Treasury Department may ramp up a financial war against the violent Mexico-based drug trafficking cartel responsible for America’s drug overdose catastrophe. 

“When it comes to drug trafficking, we haven’t enforced sanctions against banks seriously,” David Asher, a senior fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute specializing in US foreign policy and law enforcement, told AP News in April 2023. 

Asher continued, “If we can sanction Russian oligarchs and banks, why can’t we do the same thing to Mexican drug lords and their bankers and bank accounts and banks — especially when we know who they are.”

Under a Trump presidency, international fentanyl trafficking could be declared a national emergency. This would then allow the Treasury to sanction the hell out of drug cartels and their banks. This would enable Trump to confiscate the sanctioned property of fentanyl traffickers. And it’s not just targeting Mexican banks where traffickers hide their monies – Chinese banks could be targets, too.

Sanctions would be a tool by Trump to then deter Chinese chemical firms from sending fentanyl-precursor chemicals to Mexico. When cooked, these chemicals are turned into fentanyl, shipped over Biden-Harris’ open southern borders, and then flooded into streets of American towns and cities. 

If Trump wins, expect these illicit financial networks of the cartels and Chinese companies participating in this drug crisis scheme to be instant targets. 

Remember, China doesn’t even have to fire a shot, and 100,000 Americans die each year from the drug death overdose crisis. Many of these deaths are folks who are prime-aged working men and women, in other words, military-aged men and women. Some say this is reverse opium wars waged by the Communists on the West. Trump may end this chaos that Biden-Harris allowed to expand drastically. 

Will activist hedge funds short the peso and Mexican banks if Trump wins? It certainly sounds like a big theme in the making, of course, dependent on a Trump win. 

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 20:05

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Starbucks Warns Corporate Staff: Show Up In Office Or Get Fired

Starbucks Warns Corporate Staff: Show Up In Office Or Get Fired

The golden era of remote work seems to be ending. Starbucks is the latest mega-corporation to enforce a return-to-office mandate for white-collar workers.

An internal message from the coffee chain obtained by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal states a new “standardized process” will be implemented at the start of the new year to hold employees accountable if they don’t comply with work requirements, such as coming into the office at least three days a week. The memo stated that non-compliance could result in termination. 

Starbucks reminded hybrid white-collar workers that working arrangements had not changed and that rules must be followed. The memo emphasized: “We are continuing to support our leaders as they hold their teams accountable.” 

Bloomberg quoted new Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol last month as saying, “This is not a game of tracking. This is a game of winning,” adding, “I care about seeing everybody here succeed, and if success requires us being together more often than not, let’s be together more often.” 

A company spokesperson told Bloomberg, “We are continuing to support our leaders as they hold their teams accountable to our existing hybrid work policy.” 

The bigger picture here is the remote work revolution across corporate America was more or less a total flunk. It did not drive increased office productivity; instead, it was the opposite. More or less, hybrid work policies, a combination of home and office, will likely be the gold standard moving forward. 

Meanwhile, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently told corporate staffers to work from the office five days a week, up from three days a week – completely reversing pandemic-era policies. Also, UPS, JPMorgan Chase, Dell Technologies, and Boeing have asked parts of their white-collar workforces to return to offices full-time. 

We suspect Starbucks CEO Niccol’s enforcement of office work requirements is part of his attempt to turn around the sinking ship.

Tyler Durden
Tue, 10/29/2024 – 17:40

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