“Delighted At Election Outcome” – Dallas Fed Respondents “Optimistic, Encouraged” As Current National Activity Index Droops

Current US national economic activity fell in October for the fifth straight month, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The Chicago Fed national index, which draws on 85 economic indicators, was -0.4 in October (the weakest since January) versus -0.27 in September.

According to the report, three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index – production, employment, and personal consumption/housing – decreased from September.

Under the hood, only 30 of the 85 monthly individual indicators made positive contributions; while 55 made negative contributions.

Amid all the month-to-month noise, the three-month moving average of the CFNAI has been negative for two straight years (since Oct 2022)…

Source: Bloomberg

On a more local level, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index rose to -2.7 (from -3.0) – although that was worse than the -1.8 expected. The headline index has now been negative (contracting) for 31 straight months…

Source: Bloomberg

However, the index is at its least bad since April 2022 and on a forward-looking basis, optimism is soaring (as it did into the 2020 election, only to be dashed by Bidenomics)…

Source: Bloomberg

And based on the responses from interviewees, it’s clear what the driving factor is behind the optimism this time…

• Hallelujah, the election is over, the results were unquestionably solid, work can be done, and attitudes are seemingly much improved. I do believe that six months from now we will prove to be at full throttle. We’ve held on the past year. We still have some rough water to navigate in the near term, but long term, things look mighty rosy in many areas of our marketplace. We’re optimistic, we’re encouraged, and we feel very blessed. [Machinery manufacturing]

• We are delighted at the election outcome and expect this to be very good for our business. [Computer and electronic product manufacturing]

• Short-term, fourth-quarter raw material prices have increased, and the continuing decline in economic demand related to the automotive industry and building trades has created a large reduction in orders/volume. Longer term, the outcome of the election should benefit all U.S. businesses once policy is corrected and consumer confidence increases. [Chemical manufacturing]

• We are in a period of a bit of stagflation. It is compounded by the regime change. We do think the Trump administration will be healthy, particularly after the cabinet heads settle in, and free enterprise supported by domestic tranquility and the common defense become the norm. [Food manufacturing]

• Now that the election is over, we believe business will pick back up due to a more pro-business environment. [Machinery manufacturing]

• There are things to work out nationally, but [we are] getting poised for growth. [Transportation equipment manufacturing]

And we given the last words to a representative of the wood-product manufacturing industry:

“Things are good.”

…presumably they mean, now that Trump has complete the Red Sweep.