Month: November 2024

Bitcoin came within a few bucks of the $90,000 Maginot Line today – up a stunning 30% since right before the election results started to pour in…

Source: Bloomberg

Winter is over?

Source: Bloomberg

Massive inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs over the last week have helped…

Source: Bloomberg

…and so has the sudden resurgence in global liquidity…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum was actually lower on the day today after topping $3400 intraday

Source: Bloomberg

…as the post-election DeFi mania wears off…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was another huuuge winner today… up over 5% in the last seven weeks to two-year highs…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar strength has started to hammer gold – which is now down at near two-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The gold-dollar correlation regime has normalized after both surging together for a few months…

Source: Bloomberg

Yields surged today, playing catch up after yesterday’s holiday (the long-end was a slight laggard with 10Y +13bps, 2Y +9bps). Yields are now back up near the post-election spike highs…

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields are back at their highest in five-months…

Source: Bloomberg

Small Caps were really ugly today (-1.8%) while The Dow ended on the lows of the day…

…as the ‘short squeeze’ finally stalled (worst day for ‘most shorted’ stocks since Sept 3rd)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and yields start to hurt from the bottom up (small-caps, then mid-caps) after the bigly squeeze from the election…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond vol is starting to pick up a little…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil prices were flat today with WTI holding around $68, still notably down from the election…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, investors want equities: SPY has witnessed 9 consecutive days of inflows (totaling to ~$18bn over the period)…

Source: Goldman Sachs

As Goldman Sachs trader John Flood notes, the longest streak of inflows SPY has seen is 10 days, which was last witnessed in 2014.

 

Earlier this month Ukraine’s military achieved a significant first, and one which was surely noticed by Russia as cause for deep alarm. On November 6, a large Ukrainian kamikaze drone struck Russian warships in the Caspian Sea, at a huge distance from the front lines of the war.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence service said at least two targets were hit, likely a pair of missile patrol ships moored closely together at the Russian naval base in the city of Kaspiysk. This is an astounding more than 900 miles (1500km) from the border with Ukraine.

The port city, located in the Republic of Dagestan, has seen an increase of Russian ships off its coast of late, given much of the Black Sea fleet has been relocated to the Caspian in order to protect these valuable military assets from drone and missile attacks out of Ukraine, especially while they are moored and inactive.

“Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet with drone boats and missile strikes, and it has effectively driven Russian surface combatants and submarines out of the Crimean peninsula,” The Maritime Executive writes.

“The majority of the fleet is now homeported in Novorossiysk, in the northeastern corner of the Black Sea, to avoid the risk of further attacks,” the report continues. “Strikes on the distant Caspian Flotilla – which Russia has used repeatedly to launch cruise missiles – indicate that Ukraine’s reach has grown.”

Since the start of the war Ukraine has achieved at least a dozen successful major strikes damaging Russian naval assets at the Black Sea Crimean port of Sevastopol.

But if Ukraine has demonstrated that its drones can reach all the way into the Caspian, this means Russia will have to take further measures in keeping its fleet safe. There appears to be a media blackout of the Caspian Sea drone incident, per regional media:

Despite the head of Dagestan’s call not to post photos and videos of the incident, channels from Dagestan and across Russia are full of videos of the drone’s flight and impact from different angles.

The incident is also being hotly discussed on local social media. During the attempt to shoot down the drone, the Russian military spared no bullets, and as a result, some of them hit the homes of the Caspian people. Bloggers complain that despite the allocation of 550 million rubles ($5,640,000) of state funds for the Safe City system, neither the Emergency Situations Ministry’s warning nor the civil defense systems worked. The mayor of Kaspiysk announced after the strike that street lighting will be turned off between 1 and 8AM “to minimize the presence of people on the streets at night.”

This morning, Ukrainian attack drones successfully struck Russia’s Caspian Sea flotilla in the port of Kaspiysk, over 1000 km behind the frontline.

Seen here, a Ukrainian drone flies low over the harbor and slams into a row of docked Russian warships. pic.twitter.com/06vbjUfblQ

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 6, 2024

Speculation over the drone used in the attack has focused on the Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat aircraft. It is a tiny plane that resembles a Cessna which has been converted into a kamikaze drone.

One industry website says that the small two-seater would have to undergo extensive modifications for drone use:

For the kamikaze operation, the aircraft had to be configured to carry an explosive payload. A designated compartment could be engineered within the aircraft to securely contain the explosives, designed for safe transport and effective detonation at the target. An activation mechanism might be developed to detonate the payload either remotely or upon impact with the target.

An eyewitness account has been provided by Forbes as follows:

As Russian sailors dove for cover, one of the Aeroprakt A-22s—apparently operated by the Ukrainian intelligence directorate—plowed into a clutch of warships moored side-by-side along a pier.

According to Anton Gerashchenko, a former advisor to the interior ministry in Kyiv, the explosion damaged three ships, including two Gepard-class frigates—the fleet’s biggest ships—as well as a smaller Buyan corvette. The damaged vessels may account for nearly a third of the Caspian Fleet’s strength.

UAV strikes the port of Kaspiysk, where Russian naval ships. Local sources confirm that the drone targeted the base of the Russian Navy’s Caspian Flotilla, a site that hosts strategic assets like a missile division. pic.twitter.com/oUYUrZifhQ

— Bandera Fella *-^ (@banderafella) November 6, 2024

For such a great distance as over 1,000km – the aircraft would also have to undergo significant upgrades to increase fuel capacity or improve fuel efficiency. Some of Ukraine’s most significant strikes on Russian territory of late have especially focused on taking out fuel depots and energy transit points, many which are deep into Russia.

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

The Justice Department has released statistics on the number of J6 protestors arrested since the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill uprising – showing that prosecutors were busy arresting dozens of new targets in the run-up to Election Day.

According to the DOJ, approximately 1,561 J6ers have been charged criminally in federal court – up more than 100 cases from the 1,457 arrests as of June.

The latest DOJ stats – released on Election Day – show that the federal government’s furious pace of arrests continued throughout this year.

The DOJ charged 725 from January 2021 to January 2022; more than 200 in 2022; about 225 last year; and another 419 through nearly the first half of 2024.

The uptick in charges and arrests this year followed a letter from the “Sedition Hunters” to Attorney General Merrick Garland and U.S. Attorney Matthew Graves – urging them to arrest thousands of additional J6 protestors before the 2024 election.

The Sedition Hunters is a shadowy group of online sleuths that use controversial facial recognition technology to help the FBI track down Jan. 6 protestors.

“It appears that the department and the FBI are not on pace to arrest an alarmingly large percentage [of those] who committed crimes at the Capitol on January 6 but have not been charged yet,” the Sedition Hunters’ April letter said.

“These people have already committed political violence once, and for the more violent offenders to remain un-arrested and face no accountability is a concern to me because it’s an election year — and what’s to stop them from committing political violence again this year?” the letter said.

According to the letter, 3,900 people committing crimes at the Capitol on Jan. 6. That includes people who breached the Capitol and those who engaged in violence on the grounds, but not the people who were on the Capitol grounds—itself a crime—but otherwise didn’t violate any laws.

“About 626 people have been charged with assaulting law enforcement and media, or entering a restricted area with a dangerous or deadly weapon,” Raw Story reported in April.

“Based on those numbers, the arrest rate for violent offenders would need to pick up the pace from about 16 per month to 26 per month in order to meet the deadline before the statute of limitations runs out on Jan. 6, 2026.”

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Old School lefty strategist James Carville is still raking Democrats across the coals for doing everything wrong and becoming an obsolete political force.

In another rant, Carville, the former lead strategist in Bill Clinton’s winning 1992 Presidential campaign, noted “We have no legislative power, we have no executive power, we have no judicial power. So when you’re out of power, you’re an opposition party. And go and tell all the people that are sending you and asking you for money, justify what you did, justify what you did wrong, and tell us what you’re going to do different.”

He continued, “what you’ve done ain’t worth a shit. Get your head around that. And all of the Washington-based Democrats farting around, going to wine and cheese parties, and talking about how misogynistic the race is, get your ass out of Washington, and go work on a 2026 campaign and do penance to make up for your goddamn arrogance and stupidity.”

Oof.

Carville then referenced woke identity politics, which was disastrously embraced by the Democrats, urging “we’re going to say we told you so. We told you this identity shit was disaster. We told you to get out in front of public safety issues. You didn’t.”

He further declared, “we got caught in the grip of the stupid God damn identitarian mission. Defund the police. The entire era of Jackassery.”

Carville also noted how the coup of Biden and the anointment of Harris was a grave error for Democrats.

“We told you to have an open process and demonstrate the magnificent and staggering and deep talent that exists in the modern Democratic Party. You didn’t. We told you to differentiate yourself from Biden. You didn’t,” he urged.

“I hate to be some fucking know-it-all, but all of these things are part of the record,” Carville proclaimed.

Carville also again pointed to Kamala’s awful appearance on The View, where she couldn’t think of a single thing to say when asked what she would do different to Biden.

“We got fucked because on the single money question, the single thing that it boils down to is what would you do different? That was the fattest softest pitch you could possibly get, but you missed it. I mean, you didn’t just miss it. You missed it by four feet,” Carville blasted.

*  *  *

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Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Trump has everything to gain by picking up where everyone left off over two and a half years ago.

The Wall Street Journal’s report that Trump wants to create a Western-patrolled DMZ along the Line of Contact (LOC) for freezing the Ukrainian Conflict, which was analyzed here and here, dangerously runs the risk of escalating tensions with Russia to the point of a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis. It would therefore be much better for him to revive the draft Russian-Ukrainian peace treaty from spring 2022 instead. Other than averting World War III, which is an obvious motivation, here are five others:

*  *  *

1. Fulfill His Democratic Mandate To Bring Peace To Europe

Trump won the popular vote and therefore has a democratic mandate to fulfill his campaign pledge to bring peace to Europe. Doing so would be a strong start to his second term and reassure his supporters that he won’t backtrack on his commitments like last time. Additionally, other countries will see that he’s serious about doing what he promised, thus leading to them taking him more seriously and making them less likely to haggle with him. He might also set himself up to win the Nobel Peace Prize too.

2. Create Less Space For The Deep State To Manipulate Him

Another one of Trump’s promises is to purge the country’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) of warmongering neoconservatives. If he backtracks on the most important of his foreign policy promises, then they’ll have more space to manipulate him. After all, it was his decision to bomb Syria early on into his first term that set the stage for every other foreign policy disappointment. Failure to hold his ground on Ukraine would be a very bad omen.

3. Compel The EU To Take More Responsibility For Its Defense

Trump’s reported plan for NATO aims to compel the EU to take more responsibility for its defense so as to rebalance the burden that the US carries in this regard and then facilitate the latter’s “Pivot (back) to Asia” to more muscularly contain China. This won’t be achieved with nice words or even threats, but only through shocking the system by forcing them to step up after he ends the conflict in this way, which is their worst fear and would thus leave them with no choice but to do what demands afterwards.

4. Help “Un-Unite” Russia & China As Realistically As Possible

He promised on the eve of the election to “un-unite” Russia and China, and while it’s impossible to turn them against each other, the most realistic outcome that he can hope for is to reduce Russia’s potentially disproportionate dependence on China by gradually restoring the European vector of its balancing act. Phased sanctions relief as a reward for compliance with a ceasefire/armistice could do a lot to avert the aforesaid scenario in a non-threatening way that would also be tacitly acceptable for Russia too.

5. Replenish Stockpiles To Better Prepare For Contingencies

And finally, swiftly ending the Ukrainian Conflict by reviving spring 2022’s draft peace treaty as the basis for this would enable the US to fully focus its military-industrial complex on replenishing its depleted stockpiles in order to better prepare for contingencies, such as those that might soon develop in Asia. This would be difficult to do if Trump keeps arming Ukraine after either being manipulated into turning this into another forever war or as an additional security guarantee to go with his reported DMZ plan.

*  *  *

As can be seen from the five points above, Trump has everything to gain by picking up where everyone left off over two and a half years ago to sustainably end the Ukrainian Conflict on the terms that Kiev and Moscow tentatively agreed to shortly after it began, albeit with minor modifications. The current territorial realities, whether with regard to the LOC or the entire administrative borders of the four Ukrainian regions that joined Russia, would have to be recognized. If he does so, then a deal is certain.

Yahya Sarea, the Houthi military spokesman, wrote on X that the Yemeni Armed Forces conducted two military operations, “the first of which targeted the American aircraft carrier (Abraham) in the Arabian Sea with several cruise missiles and drones, and the other targeted two American destroyers in the Red Sea with a number of ballistic missiles and drones.”

Sarea said the military operations were in “retaliation to the American-British aggression against our country and in continuation of triumphing for the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples.” 

بيان القوات المسلحة اليمنيةبشأن تنفيذ عمليتين عسكريتين أولاهمااستهدفت حاملة الطائرات الأمريكية(إبراهام) في البحر العربي بعدد من الصواريخ المجنحةوالطائرات المسيرة،والأخرى استهدفت مدمرتين أمريكيتين في البحرالأحمربعدد من الصواريخ الباليستيةوالطائرات المسيرة.
pic.twitter.com/WqnepzykiY

— العميد يحيى سريع (@army21ye) November 12, 2024

He provided more color on the alleged missiles and loitering munitions attack on US warships across the critical maritime chokepoints:

• The missile, UAV forces of the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out two specific military operations. The first operation targeted the American aircraft carrier (Abraham) located in the Arabian Sea with a number of cruise missiles and drones while the American enemy was preparing to carry out hostile operations targeting our country. The operation has successfully achieved its objectives and led to thwarting the operation that the American enemy was preparing against our country.

• The other operation targeted two American destroyers in the Red Sea with a number of ballistic missiles and drones. The operation has successfully achieved its objectives. The two operations took eight hours in a row.

• Accordingly, the Yemeni Armed Forces hold the American and British enemy responsible for turning the Red Sea region into a zone of military tension and its repercussions on maritime navigation.

• Launching an aggression against Yemen within the American-British defensive shield of the Israeli enemy by the American warships will only push the Yemeni Armed Forces to further use their legitimate right to defend, confront and strike all hostile threats in the Red and Arab Seas and in any other region that Yemeni weapons reach.

• Launching an aggression againThe operations of the Yemeni Armed Forces will not stop until the aggression on Gaza is stopped, the siege is lifted, and the aggression on Lebanon is stopped.t Yemen within the American-British defensive shield of the Israeli enemy by the American warships will only push the Yemeni Armed Forces to further use their legitimate right to defend, confront and strike all hostile threats in the Red and Arab Seas and in any other region that Yemeni weapons reach.

There has been no public statement from United States Central Command about the alleged Houthi operations against its warships. However, CENTCOM did publish this footage from the USS Abraham Lincoln earlier. 

Aircraft from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) support operations against Iran-backed Houthis in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. pic.twitter.com/8Y4yqsAepd

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) November 12, 2024

*Developing…

By Benjamin Picton, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

To The Moon!

Another day, another record close for the S&P500. The 51st of 2024, to be exact. Even European stocks got in on the act yesterday, with the EuroStoxx 50 closing 1.07% higher, the FTSE100 up 0.65% and the German DAX +1.21%. There are also signs that the rally continues to broaden out from the usual mega-cap tech leadership. The Russell 2000 rose by 1.47% to sit just shy of the November 2021 highs and the MSCI US Banks Index is now up more than 38% YTD.

An extension of the risk-on rally in stocks is certainly nice for pension fund balances, but the most impressive price action of the day was to be found in Bitcoin. In yesterday’s note I commented on Bitcoin breaking the $80k barrier over the weekend, but the gains kept running throughout the trading day to the extent that the $89k level has now been taken out.

While ‘digital gold’ has been on a tear, regular gold fell by as much as 2.6% yesterday to be trading just over $2,600/oz. There is perhaps an element of profit taking here after the yellow metal’s stellar run over the course of 2024, but gold is also being weighed down by a strengthening US Dollar (up another 0.5% on the DXY yesterday) and ETF outflows to fund Bitcoin purchases. CFTC data confirms that speculators have cut their net long position in gold to the lowest in 12 weeks, despite the promise of bigger deficits and inflationary tariff policies from President Trump.

US bond markets were closed for Veterans Day (Armistice Day) yesterday, so there was no price action in Treasuries. German Bunds exhibited very minor bull steepening on the 2s10s as 2-year yields fell by 4.7bps and 10-year yields dropped by 4bps. Gilts exhibited a similar pattern of minor bull steepening, but the overall fall in yields was slightly less pronounced in the UK, perhaps owing to the ongoing reaction to Chancellor Reeves’ big tax and spend budget.

The Bloomberg commodities index fell by almost 1% yesterday to extend losses for a second-straight day. Brent crude was down by 2.76% to $71.83/bbl and WTI fell even more sharply, down 3.27% to $66.08/bbl. Perhaps Donald Trump’s vocal support of “drill, baby, drill!” explains the relative price action there, while the overall weakness in crude pricing is likely an amalgam of continued market oversupply, underwhelming stimulus in China and heightened expectation that Trump’s election victory could see a deal brokered to end the war in Ukraine.

A forced resolution to the war in Ukraine would be very controversial. An apparent example of misinformation was circulating X yesterday claiming that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had said that he would “personally expel” the United States from the alliance if Trump did a deal to surrender Ukraine to Russia. Fact checkers from Newsweek and the BBC have found no such comments from Rutte, but the speed at which the rumor spread is indicative of how sensitive these matters are and that nothing (no matter how fanciful) should be completely disregarded as outside the realms of possibility in the current environment.

The FT reports today that Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer have pledged “unwavering” support to Ukraine, while the EU is set to redirect “tens of billions” of euros from ‘cohesion funds’ designed to reduce economic inequality between member states to defence and security spending initiatives. Donald Trump has been vocal in his criticisms of European free-riding on the US defence apparatus and has suggested that he will be pressuring EU leaders to spend 3% of GDP on their own security, a number that most member states (Poland, the Baltic states and Greece being notable exceptions) currently fall well short of. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has just selected China hawk, NATO critic and former Green Beret Mike Waltz as White House National Security Advisor, an important role that coordinates policy across multiple government agencies and does not require Senate confirmation.

While the Trump trade continues to roll through markets and give European allies sleepless nights, there are some signs of economic improvement in the antipodes. An official from the New Zealand Treasury this morning observed that “second-tier data suggests that the economy is turning up”, while October consumer confidence figures for Australia recorded a big surge that saw the ‘economic situation in the next 12 months’ and ‘family finances next 12 months’ sub-indices surge into net optimistic territory.

Futures implied terminal policy rates for Australia and New Zealand have moved markedly higher over the last month or so. OIS futures now suggest fewer than two 25bps policy rate cuts in Australia by the end of next year (previously more than three) and a terminal OCR in New Zealand of 3.36% by end 2025 after previously pricing in a sub-3% figure in early October. RaboResearch is now slightly more dovish than the market pricing in both cases. We see a 3.6% cash rate in Australia by August next year and a 3.25% OCR in New Zealand (a comparatively hawkish number when we first published it!).

Ultimately, the path of policy rates at the bottom of the world will depend a great deal on the Chinese response to Trump tariffs. Tradeable inflation may be higher in the short term as goods get sucked into the USA ahead of the imposition of universal tariffs, but then lower once the tariffs come into effect and exporters seek to dump goods into markets that remain open to them. On a long-term structural basis, inflation is likely to be higher as global production and distribution increasingly emphasises security over efficiency. Combine that with the potential for Dollar strength to continue and the prospect for swingeing rate cuts in the antipodes suddenly looks limited.

New York Judge Juan Merchan delayed a Tuesday decision on whether President-elect Trump’s conviction can withstand the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling, following his election victory last week.

According to The Associated Press, Merchan told Trump’s lawyers on Nov. 12, when he was scheduled to make his decision, that he would make his ruling on Nov. 19, just days before Trump’s scheduled sentencing.

The Hill reports that Judge Merchan agreed to freeze the case until Nov. 19, newly public court records show, enabling prosecutors to respond to Trump’s demand the case be dismissed entirely now that he is president-elect. 

A jury found Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree in connection to payment made to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election.

Trump’s attorneys believe his election as president compels the dismissal of his criminal prosecutions. 

“The stay, and dismissal, are necessary to avoid unconstitutional impediments to President Trump’s ability to govern,” Trump attorney Emil Bove wrote in an email to the judge. 

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) office agreed to delay the proceedings as they assess how to respond to Trump’s demand.  

“The People agree that these are unprecedented circumstances and that the arguments raised by defense counsel in correspondence to the People on Friday require careful consideration,” prosecutor Matthew Colangelo wrote to the judge. 

Trump’s sentencing was originally scheduled for July 11th, but it was delayed until September 18. Merchan delayed the sentencing date again until after the Nov. 5 presidential election to avoid the appearance of attempting to influence the outcome.

Trump’s sentencing is now scheduled for Nov. 26.

As Jonathan Turley opines on X:

The Manhattan case is delayed for a week. My friend Andy McCarthy has suggested that the delay could lead to a suspension for the next term. If so, that would hardly be welcomed by the Trump team. It would be a curious resolution to keep it unresolved…

The other possibility is that in roughly a week, the court could dismiss the case.  That would be warranted in my view. In any case, whatever the ruling, the ability of the Trump team needs to be able to appeal any case that is not dismissed. This case is riddled with reversible errors in my view.  The one option that should be rejected, in my view, is suspending during the pendency of the new administration.

…reversible errors.  I would be surprised if the option is suspension for the pendency of the coming term. It would produce the absurd status of a Damocles Sword dangling over the head of the president…

…Keep in mind that Merchan could sentence without any limitations on the movement or duties of the president. He could also dismiss a case that should never have been brought…

…The lawfare failed.  Trump won. Time to return the attractions to their cages and call the circus to an end in Manhattan.

…The delay is welcomed news to allow the Trump lawyers to make the case that the matter should be dismissed.  In the end, absent a dismissal, they will need a status that allows them to appeal to seek additional review.

 

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst who said in May the economy was skidding.  Now, Dowd predicts the economy is poised to “roll over” and soon. 

Why is the Fed cutting rates with a record high DOW?  Maybe they see the same thing he does.  Dowd explains, “Real weekly wage growth was minus 2% going into the election.  It is also interesting to know that minus 2% number of wage growth was also in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide and also in 1992 when Bill Clinton won in a landslide…”

“I have never seen such blatant manipulation of government statistics. 

There is government spending and government hiring to paper over what is truly a bad economy for the average man.  When I was asked prior to the election who do you think will win the election, I said Trump has already won, according to the economic statistics.  That’s why he won. Bobby Kennedy helped along with Elon Musk, Joe Rogan, lots of people switching and what have you.  What really got Trump in was the economy, the real economy, not the stock market. 

It was not the ‘everything is hunky-dory’ pablum from the mainstream media. 

The real economy has been rolling over, and we are just waiting for the financial markets to figure this out. 

When they do, Trump is going to inherit a turd of a financial market crisis. 

Government statistics will be updated, and it will show we started a recession sometime this year…

The incoming Trump Administration has to get out in front of the narrative.  This was already baked into the cake.  They just got handed fraudulent books.  So, they are basically going to get blamed for what is coming. 

They have to get in front of the narrative and talk about what they were handed.  They need to talk about how the stock market is not a real indicator of economic health like it was before the days of raw manipulation.”

[ZH: We have been endlessly reminding readers for the last six months that the ‘always positive’ macro headlines that appear every day after almost ubiquitously revised down in later months, hiding the reality that set the scene for Trump’s almost unprecedented victory in the election – despite the endless charade promoted by legacy media that ‘everything was awesome’, it clearly wasn’t (and isn’t) and the rug-pull is coming.]

The other big problem that Trump needs to get in front of is the CV19 bioweapon vax disaster.  Dowd says, “We have been monitoring and tracking excess deaths, disabilities and injuries such as heart attacks, neurological problems, cancers and liver issues…”

”  There is a whole host of issues that have gone off the charts since the introduction of the Covid vaccines. 

As of 2023, there was about 1.2 million excess deaths in the US.  There were about four million disabilities and about 32 million injured. . . . 

Our calculations, conservatively speaking, are 8 million to 15 million dead globally, 40 million to 60 million disabled and 500 million to 900 million injured where their immune system is so compromised that they are getting sick all the time.  You’ve got to think about it as a funnel.  Most of the numbers are injured, and then the next level down are disabled and then dead.  People can funnel down from one category to the next. 

We have a problem here because we have 10% to 13% excess mortality currently running. . . . We are running once in 200 year flood numbers in 2024. . . . This is not over.

  It is going to stay with us for decades.  The way to mitigate that is there needs to be national awareness so people can treat the problems they have.  This is the biggest healthcare failure we have ever seen.  We need to pull the mRNA vaccines and have a global truth moment…

We continue to go along with a wink and a nod to pretend there is not a problem.  We are not going to talk about Covid and the mRNA vaccines, and in my mind, this is unethical, immoral and criminal.”

Dowd also talks about the US dollar that is not going away anytime soon, gold that is topping out –for now and how we need to deal with massive amounts of debt.

There is much more in the 42-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the updated book called “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023” for 11.9.24.

To Donate to USAW click here

To get a “Medical Emergency Kit” or “Contagion Emergency Kit” from The Wellness Company and get at least $30 off, click here.  (Check out the Black Friday deals too!!)

The ‘Trump Effect’ on crypto markets is spreading around the world with South Korea’s News 1 reporting the stunning news that the trading volume of the five domestic won market exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX) in the past 24 hours, surpassing the average daily trading volume of KOSPI and KOSDAQ stock exchanges.

That helped push Bitcoin up to $90,000 overnight…

By pursuing a more lenient regulatory environment, Trump aims to fulfill his campaign promise to transform the United States into the “crypto capital of the planet.”

As Vivian Nguyen reports at CryptoBriefing.com, Scott Bessent, a strong advocate for crypto, particularly Bitcoin, has an 88% probability of becoming the next Treasury secretary under a second Trump administration, according to prediction platform Polymarket.

“I think everything is on the table with Bitcoin,” Bessent said in a statement shared by Terrett.

“One of the most exciting things about Bitcoin is that it brings in young people and those who have not participated in markets before. Cultivating a market culture in the US, where people believe in a system that works for them, is the centerpiece of capitalism.”

If appointed as Treasury secretary, Bessent could bring major transformations to US economic policy regarding digital assets, including the possibility of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, an idea hinted at by Trump during his keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in July.

Sources familiar with the matter told The Washington Post that Trump plans to select pro-crypto candidates for key positions as part of his strategy to make the US a global crypto hub with early discussions have centered on a set of financial regulatory agencies including the SEC.

WaPo reports that the names under consideration for the SEC and other positions include Daniel Gallagher, a former SEC official now at the financial technology firm Robinhood, which offers crypto wallets as well as stock trading; and Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda, two Republican commissioners at the agency, the people said.

A Republican donor, Gallagher previously faulted the SEC for taking a “scorched earth” approach to crypto.

Peirce and Uyeda, meanwhile, have criticized their agency for policy and enforcement actions taken under President Joe Biden.

Peirce is seen as a potential interim chair of the SEC, once Trump takes over the White House, who could later lead a federal task force on crypto policy.

“The commission’s war on crypto must end, including crypto enforcement actions solely based on a failure to register with no allegation of fraud or harm,” Uyeda told Fox Business this month.

“President Trump and the American electorate have sent a clear message. Starting in 2025, the SEC’s role is to carry out that mandate.”

“His days are numbered,” said Brad Garlinghouse, the chief executive of Ripple with regard to Gary Gensler – the current SEC Chair, adding that the company has “been in touch” with the Trump transition team.

“I think it’s clear this is an area they intend to continue to focus on. I think Trump and a bunch of people realize there’s a new set of technologies that are likely to define the next couple of decades.”

However, nothing grows in a straight line and as CoinTelegraph reports, cryptocurrency markets may be overheating during the current parabolic rally, with some industry leaders warning of an incoming deleveraging ahead of the next leg up.

Crypto investor sentiment has risen to 80, or “extreme greed” on Nov. 12, a day after Bitcoin price surpassed the $85,000 record high on Nov. 11, according to data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index from alternative.me.

The last time the index had a score of 80 was on April 9, just before Bitcoin saw an over 18% correction in the following three weeks, from over $69,135 to its bottom above $56,500 on May 1, Bitstamp data shows.

Bitcoin needs deleveraging before reaching $100,000

The current leveraged ratios, or the amount of borrowed funds used for trading positions, is reaching unsustainable levels, warned Kris Marszalek, the co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com.

Marszalek wrote in a Nov. 12 X post:

“Leverage needs to be cleaned up before attack on $100k. Please manage your risk carefully.”

While investors should exercise caution, Donald Trump’s presidential victory will likely contribute to Bitcoin’s continued price appreciation, according to Shunyet Jan head of derivatives at Bybit, who told Cointelegraph:

“Elevated funding rates and a bullish options skew suggest that both retail and institutional investors are eagerly positioning to capture further upside, with many leveraging their positions. The high funding rates, in particular, underscore the level of leveraged bets, reflecting strong demand for long exposure as confidence continues to build.

Some analysts expect Bitcoin to rise above the record $100,000 mark before the end of the year, driven by expected improvements in macroeconomic conditions due to Trump’s presidential victory.

While euphoria may be imminent:

Bernstein: “We will keep it simple. Don’t fight this – add crypto exposure ASAP. Call us if you need help” https://t.co/Ljuch26EYa pic.twitter.com/QKCNqeKQNA

— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) November 11, 2024

Amid record BTC ETF inflows…

And record ETH ETH inflows too…

Google Trends suggests that moment is not here yet…

full-blown retail euphoria. Oh wait… pic.twitter.com/Gaz6wCfinc

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 11, 2024

Finally, along that line of thought, BitcoinMagazine’s Pete Rizzo raises an interesting point :

The race is on to front-run the US government.

Herein lies the problem: The United States has essentially telegraphed to the world that it intends to buy an asset that’s in scarce supply, without the concrete ability to do so.

Even with a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, passing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation 2024 will still require an act of Congress, and the agreement of lawmakers. It would seem foolish to expect this won’t be complex or time-consuming.

For example, the bill proposes revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings, as well as integrating Bitcoin into government financial systems. Questions will likely abound, as will operational challenges. Let’s remember it took all of three years for SEC Staff Bulletins to be adjusted just to value Michael Saylor’s public markets Bitcoin buying spree correctly.

This is the nature of government — slow and bureaucratic. Even with Trump, RFK, and other Bitcoin backers in positions of power, the chances that the U.S. government begins to acquire Bitcoin on January 20, 2025 seem infinitesimal. This is not saying that it won’t happen at all, just that it won’t be timely.

This is even to omit that there could be a prioritization challenge. Maybe the crypto lobby wants to move quickly on the long delayed market infrastructure bill. If so, Congress could become more consumed with the guardrails for exchanges, and redefining securities laws than the question of the strategic reserve. After all, they helped bankroll Trump’s win.

How much could Bitcoin rise in the meantime? With the bull market in full force, I’d argue that institutions and governments have every reason to become active in the market. There are many regimes around the world where the executive branch has enough power to begin accumulating Bitcoin today. They’d be foolish not to frontrun the U.S. government.

El Salvador started this process in 2021, and it has amassed over 5,900 Bitcoin. Yet, it faced 2-3 years of market headwinds, as traders countered its entries. Lest we forget El Salvador bought hundreds of Bitcoin at $60,000, a move that for years was fuel for its enemies.

Trump may yet do his part to boost Bitcoin. Yet, in telegraphing his intentions, he’s almost certainly created conditions that can be exploited by savvy traders.

Today, I received confirmation that another nation state is currently discussing

– a Bitcoin strategic reserve
– drafting Bitcoin mining regulations so they can improve their electrical grid and better monetize stranded energy

It’s happening

— Daniel Batten (@DSBatten) November 11, 2024

Time will tell them if, among them, we’ll see other nation states.