DC Swamp Draining May Spark Recessionary Pain For Region

DC Swamp Draining May Spark Recessionary Pain For Region

President-elect Donald Trump plans to make Elon Musk “secretary of cost-cutting” to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in slashing $2 trillion from the federal budget—about a third of what the bloated federal government spent in the latest fiscal year. This once-in-a-generation initiative will cut thousands of federal workers and reduce or even eliminate the vast cancerous bureaucracy with a new small government led by capable leaders.

Musk wrote in an X post on Sunday night that this shock-and-awe approach will have “obstacles overcoming the Kafkaesque nature of the rules governing this vast bureaucracy and ensuring that maniacally dedicated small-government revolutionaries join this administration. ” 

Musk was responding to Vivek Ramaswamy’s X post, “We won & now have a once-in-a-century opportunity to radically downsize the size, scope, and mission of the federal government. And the top obstacle to our success won’t even be the Democrats.” 

Trump is less than three months away from implementing his plan to ‘Make America Great Again’… and thousands of federal workers across DC, Northern Virginia, and Baltimore region have been put on notice for potential job loss.

A recent report by the Washington Post showed that approximately 15% of the 2.19 million civilian full-time federal employees in the US (data from 2023), or about 328,500, live in Northern Virginia, suburban Maryland, and even a touch of West Virginia. 

Source: WaPo 

The other 85% work elsewhere around the country. 

Source: WaPo 

More recent figures show that figure is as high as 373,000 in the Virginia, DC, and Maryland region. These job cuts could spark economic turmoil and reshape the DC landscape—or the beginnings of draining the swamp. 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 18:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Fqz1WuL Tyler Durden

In Short, These Are Dangerous Times…

In Short, These Are Dangerous Times…

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Mysteries Revealed

“People in the media are aware of how illegitimately they’ve done their jobs that they think they’re on the verge of being locked up”

– Scott Adams

You must admit, it’s a little spooky how quickly and rigorously Mr. Trump intends to deconstruct those parts of the government at war with the people:

  • clean out “rogue bureaucrats,”

  • firehose the malignant agencies,

  • release and expose their document trails on spying, censorship, lawfare, and abuse-of-power.

The consequence would be the return of consequence in our national life.

It’s been absent for so long you can hardly imagine its power to get people’s minds right.

There are already reports of frenzy among the culpable DOJ lawyers, and FBI Director Wray is set to resign before Mr. Trump can fire him. Attorney General Merrick Garland has gone radio-silent for his own good since Election Day. Expect many abiding mysteries to get unraveled, such as exactly how many federal agents did work the crowd around the Capitol on J-6, 2021 — which Mr. Wray has pretended to not be able to discuss “due to ongoing investigations.” Expect to learn more about the pipe-bomb caper at the DNC HQ a few blocks away that same day. Prepare to be amazed at how deeply criminal these schemes were. You must wonder if the document-shredding party is already underway, despite calls to preserve all the emails, memos, and texts.

Then there are the poisoned realms of the intel blob located at CIA, DHS, State, DOD, and elsewhere being subject to inquiry and overhaul.

Think: John Brennan, James Clapper, Bill Barr, Michael Atkinson, Mayorkas, Judge Boasberg, Mary McCord, Col. Vindman, Senator Warner, Avril Haines, Victoria Nuland, Samantha Power, Gina Haspel, Marie Yovanovitch, Jen Easterly, all their deputies, and many more unknown to the public. Some of these names may yet seem obscure to you. They were all neck-deep in what looks a lot like sedition, treason, real conspiracies, not theories. Even state officials such as New York AG Letitia James, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, and Fulton County, GA, DA Fani Willis, would be subject to federal charges under 18USC Section 242: willful deprivation of constitutional rights acting under color of law. That is exactly what the Trump lawfare cases amounted to.

And then, of course, there are the long-running rumors of pedophilia and human trafficking networks among the elite, the Jeffrey Epstein list and the P. Diddy list. If these things exist, and they are released, history would shudder.

Think: the Clinton Foundation.

These people are looking ahead 70 days with visions of shoes dropping and hammers falling. If the mysteries are revealed, it’s hard to imagine that criminal proceedings would not be far behind. You can also imagine that the motivation across a broad and powerful elite class runs white-hot to stop Mr. Trump from entering the Oval Office. So, these days ahead will be fraught with threats, schemes, plots, ploys, and deceptions. The paranoia must be out of this world among people who still have the resources and hold the levers-of-power needed to undertake nefarious deeds.

There is chatter about “a coup” being considered among as-yet-unnamed parties in the Pentagon to prevent Mr. Trump from rising back into power. It’s unclear how that would work among our high command of transsexual generals and admirals and their hapless DEI adjutants. The strata of colonels benath them might have different ideas. But it could be the starting gun for actual civil war. We would find out what the Second Amendment is all about. “Joe Biden” likes to say that the citizenry can’t go up against his F-16 war-planes, but he evidently does not understand how much mischief can be made with small arms — rifles, grenades, rockets, drones — despite examples of it all over the world lately. That is hypothetical for now, of course.

In short, these are dangerous times.

Mr. Trump would be advised to stay out of airplanes until inauguration day and to be extra-careful who he puts himself around, especially in public. You also must expect more lawfare of the most extreme sort going forward to January, every possible stone unturned to find procedural tricks to prevent certification of the election. Do you think Norm Eisen, Marc Elias, and Andrew Weissmann just laid back and watched football this weekend? They are probably quarterbacking efforts to finagle ballots for the remaining contested seats in Congress, in order to game-out Rep. Jamie Raskin’s well-publicized block-Trump play this coming Jan. 6.

These are the darkest and most explosive parts of Mr. Trump’s admirably deep to-do list for fixing the many things that have stopped working in American life. The simplest picture of our current predicament, and why people voted as they did, is of “things going in the wrong direction,” Well, what direction is that, exactly? The tyranny of giant forces over our little lives and communities. It’s a leviathan government seeking to invade and dominate everything — and to do it with maximum malice when resisted. It has left American men and women mentally disordered, demoralized, stolen their sense of purpose, deprived them of roles in society that provide meaning, alienated them from each other, and from their history. And it has left them, as Robert Kennedy points out, catastrophically unhealthy.

All of which is to say, we have more to clean up and reorganize than just our government. We’re going to get it done, you may be sure, even if the zeitgeist has to drag us kicking and screaming out of the malaise we’re stuck in. All of this points to some very different new arrangements to be made in our everyday life, beginning with the realization that the era of getting something-for-nothing is over.

*  *  *

Note to Readers: We are finally rebuilding the Kunstler.com website on Substack — which was taken-down a month ago on another host platform by nefarious parties

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 17:40

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California Tightens Climate Fuel Rules That Could Add $0.50/Gallon To Gas Prices

California Tightens Climate Fuel Rules That Could Add $0.50/Gallon To Gas Prices

Despite the incoming Trump administration’s likely move to deregulate all things EV, that isn’t necessarily going to stop California from continuing down its ‘green’ agenda path.

And people wonder why there’s exodus from the state to places like Texas and Florida?

Last week, the California Air Resources Board voted to amend the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which requires fuel producers exceeding carbon targets to buy credits from low- or zero-carbon suppliers, according to Bloomberg

The updated rules accelerate target reductions, despite concerns over affordability as the state faces rising housing and energy costs. Governor Gavin Newsom is grappling with the economic strain on the nation’s largest state economy amidst this push for stricter climate measures.

Its a move that is projected to raise gas prices by nearly 50 cents per gallon.

Chair Liane Randolph commented: “We cannot afford to continue with the status quo. The health and economic impacts of these events are vastly underestimated.”

The Bloomberg report says that consumer advocates are concerned after a report last year suggested California’s gas prices could rise by 47 cents per gallon in 2025, driven partly by the state’s unique, eco-friendly fuel requirements and high taxes.

Currently, Californians pay an average of $4.29 per gallon—$1.22 above the national average, the report says. 

Though the air board’s staff later revised this estimate without providing a new figure, the urgency of climate action pushed board Chair Liane Randolph to proceed, despite political calls for a delay.

Meanwhile, Governor Newsom, clashing with the oil industry over soaring gas prices, recently signed a law mandating minimum fuel inventories to stabilize prices and established a watchdog to scrutinize potential price-gouging.

Next time a Democrat argues they are fighting inflation, remind them of this genius move. This is the opposite of fighting inflation.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 17:20

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Resistance 2.0: Why The Campaign Against Trump Is Different This Time

Resistance 2.0: Why The Campaign Against Trump Is Different This Time

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The single most common principle of recovery programs is that the first step is to admit that you have a problem.

That first step continues to elude the politicians and pundits who unsuccessfully pushed lawfare and panic politics for years.

That includes prosecutors like New York Attorney General Letitia James and politicians like Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who affirmed this week that they will be redoubling, not reconsidering, their past positions.

For its part, The Washington Post quickly posted an editorial titled “The second resistance to Trump must start now.” They may, however, find the resistance more challenging both politically and legally this time around.

It is important to note at the outset that there is no reason Democratic activists should abandon their values just because they lost this election. Our system is strengthened by passionate and active advocacy.

Rather, it is the collective fury and delirium of the post-election protests that was so disconcerting. Pundits lashed out at the majority of voters, insisting that the election established that half of the nation is composed of racists, misogynists or domination addicts who long to submit to tyranny.

Others blamed free speech and the fact that social media allows “disinformation” to be read by ignorant voters. In other words, the problem could not possibly be themselves. It was, rather, the public, which refused to listen.

That does not bode well for the Democratic Party. As someone raised in a liberal politically active family in Chicago, I had hoped for greater introspection after this election blowout.

Ordinarily, recovery can begin with “a terrible experience” when someone hits rock bottom.

After a crushing electoral defeat and the loss of the White House and likely both houses of Congress, one would think that Democrats would be ready for that first step to recovery. However, those hoping for a new leaf on the left do not understand the true addictive hold of rage.

In my recent book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I explore rage and our long history of rage politics. There is a certain release that comes with rage in allowing people to do and say things that you would never do or say. People rarely admit it, but they like it. It is the ultimate high produced by the lowest form of political discourse.

Over the course of the last eight years, the U.S. has become a nation of rage addicts.

For months, Democratic leaders denounced Donald Trump and his supporters as fascists and neo-Nazis. President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and others suggested that democracy itself was about to die unless Democrats were kept in power.

Just before the election, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul called those voting for Trump “anti-American.” By Hochul’s measure, over half of the American electorate is now “anti-American.”

James is the face of lawfare. She may have done more to reelect Trump than anyone other than the president himself. She ran on nailing Trump on something, anything. In New York, she was joined by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg in this ill-conceived effort. They fulfilled the narrative of a weaponized legal system. Every new legal action seemed to produce another surge in polling for Trump.

Yet there James was, soon after the election, with another press conference promising again to unleash the powers of her office to stop Trump’s policies.

Then there was Pritzker, doing the community theater version of “The Avengers” and declaring, “You come for my people, you come through me.”

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) added that he too will “fight to the death” against Trump’s agenda.

Rather than lower the rhetoric, these rage-addicts ran out for another hit.

Our prior periods of rage politics were largely ended by the public in major election shifts like the one this month. Things, however, are different this time around both politically and legally. The problem for the resistance is the very democracy that they claimed to be saving.

Democrats lost after opposing policies supported by an astonishing share of the public at a time of deep political division. That effort included opposing voter ID laws favored by 84 percent of the public, among other things.

They are now committed to opposing policies central to this election blowout, including deportations of illegal immigrants, which is favored in some polls by two-thirds of Americans.

Likewise, Democrats have already doubled down on attacks on free speech, including blaming their loss on the absence of sufficient censorship. On MSNBC, host Mika Brzezinski blamed the loss in part on “massive disinformation.” Yet, according to some polls, free speech ranked as high as second among issues on Election Day.

According to CNN, Trump’s performance was the best among young people (18-29 years old) in 20 years, the best among Black voters in 48 years, and the best among Hispanic voters in more than 50 years.

Harris actually lost a bit of support with women, and Trump won handily among some groups of women.

None of that seems to matter this time. We have an alliance of political media and academic interests wholly untethered to the views of most of the public. Yet, with both houses of Congress under Republican control, the investigations and impeachment efforts that hounded Trump throughout his first term will be less of a threat in his second term.

For that reason, the center of gravity of the “second resistance” will shift to Democratic prosecutors like James, Bragg and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who was just reelected.

Various Democratic governors are also pledging to thwart Trump’s policies despite the results of the election.

The “second resistance” will try to use state power to oppose the very issues and policies that led to this historic political shift. That means that there will be a legal shift in the focus of litigation to inherent federal powers versus state powers. That battle will favor the Trump administration.

In fairness to these Democratic politicians, they are certainly free to go to the courts, as Republicans did under Biden to argue for limitations on federal powers. But the promise of California Gov. Gavin Newsom to “Trump-proof” the state is easier to make rhetorically than it will be to keep legally.

Indeed, Trump will be able to cite a curious ally in this fight: Barack Obama. It was Obama who successfully swatted down state efforts to pursue their own policies and programs on immigration enforcement. Obama insisted that state laws were preempted in the area and the Supreme Court largely agreed in its 2012 decision in Arizona v. U.S.

Congress may even seek to tie the receipt of federal funds to states cooperating with federal mandates. For this reason, Democrats, who campaigned on the promise to end the filibuster for the good of democracy, suddenly became firm believers in that Senate rule right around 2:30 a.m. last Wednesday.

As the majority of the country walks away from the party shaking their heads, many activists are left only with their rage. Instead of reappraising the years of far-left orthodoxy and intolerance, some are calling to tear down the system or take drastic individual actions, including for women to break up with their boyfriends and husbands or to cut off their hair.

They will actually keep their rage and dump their relationships. Now that really is an addiction.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” 

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 17:00

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/z6iMs3D Tyler Durden

Subprime Consumers Feel All The Pain Ahead Of Spending Holidays

Subprime Consumers Feel All The Pain Ahead Of Spending Holidays

Working-poor households are still under pressure in a weak demand environment because of persistent inflation and high interest rates. Goldman’s latest note on the consumer shows a continued mixed picture, with the holiday shopping season of Black Friday just weeks away. 

Goldman’s Michelle Cheng and Xinyu Ruan pointed out the continued weak consumer demand environment:

US: recent data points to a weak demand backdrop. US October TRE (The Weekly Chain Store Sales Index) was -0.9% vs -0.6% in Sep; same-store ShopperTrak traffic was -5.0% in the last week of Oct.

Our US colleagues find a mixed picture of consumer credit health, with household balance sheets remaining largely unlevered but personal savings rates declining well below long-term averages, credit delinquency rates rising yoy across cards, personal loans and auto loans, credit origination volumes at historically depressed levels and average FICO scores ticking lower for the first time in years – with pressure concentrated among subprime consumers. Softer consumer credit trends among subprime consumers are also translating into reduced spending activity among lower-income cohorts.

Similar to past quarters, consumers have remained careful in their spending decisions, as discretionary spend has continued to be soft. Below data points show recent sentiment for the lowest income consumer continues to be under pressure, with both purchase intent and consumer confidence below historical levels. That said, consumer confidence trends have recently improved across income demographics, which could potentially be reflective of a change in consumer sentiment and expectations.

The trend shows that working-poor households have been dialing back spending—or have hit a proverbial brick wall since the spring, as many financially drown in Biden-Harris’ inflation storm. 

 Not a great combo here…

In recent weeks, we have noted:

One of the biggest drivers for voters backing Trump was inflation. AP found that high prices were the number one concern for about half of all Trump voters.

Meanwhile, Democrats were trying to make the election theme all about women’s rights. Now comes the hard part for Trump in solving the nightmare inflation storm sparked by far-left liberals.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 16:40

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/Z92mUSa Tyler Durden

Where Are Biden’s 81 Million Votes? Jordan Crushes CNN ‘Gotcha’ Question…

Where Are Biden’s 81 Million Votes? Jordan Crushes CNN ‘Gotcha’ Question…

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan shut down a failed gotcha question during a Sunday CNN interview. 

Jordan appeared on CNN’s State of the Union with host Dana Bash, who asked him about Republicans claiming “voter fraud” and “election integrity” only when they lose. 

After a brief back and forth, Jordan turned the tables on Bash, asking her about the 10 million missing votes Joe Biden allegedly received in the 2020 presidential election. 

Outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris currently claiming little over 71 million votes, far lower than the 81 million declared for Joe Biden in 2020. 

“The Big Lie”…

As seen in a video shared by journalist Kyle Becker, Bash asked, “Last time around … there were false claims about election fraud when Donald Trump lost. This time, Donald Trump won and you think the election was free and fair. Do you see there’s a little of a…” 

Jordan replied, “No, I think the Democrats got to ask: ‘Why did we go from getting 81 million to getting 70 million? What happened to those 10 million people?’” 

Later, Bash asked Jordan if he believed the 2020 election was “free and fair.” Jordan replied affirmatively, explaining the unpreceded use of mail-in and absentee ballots. 

“There were concerns about 2020 with all the mail-in voting,” he said. “Pennsylvania had like 2.5-something million mail-in ballots come in without any signature verification which was required under Pennsylvania statute. So, there were all types of concerns with how the 2020 election was played out.” 

Seconds later, Jordan added, “The biggest question is what happened to the 10 Million voters that Joe Biden got but didn’t come up for Kamala Harris? President Trump’s numbers were right up where they were in 2020 but the Democrats were much lower.” 

Enjoy:

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 15:05

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/VkM9i4l Tyler Durden

China’s Foreign Direct Investment Set For First Negative Year In History

China’s Foreign Direct Investment Set For First Negative Year In History

It was almost one year ago, when we first reported that in the third quarter of 2023, China’s foreign direct investment had turned negative for the first time on record. Fast forward to today, when capital flight from China has become relentless as foreign companies pulled more money from China last quarter, a sign that some investors are still pessimistic even as Beijing rolls out stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing growth.

China’s direct investment liabilities in its balance of payments dropped $8.1 billion in the third quarter, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released late Friday. The gauge, which measures foreign direct investment in China, was down almost $13 billion for the first nine months of the year.

As we have been reporting, foreign investment into China has slumped in the past three years after hitting a record in 2021, a casualty of geopolitical tensions, pessimism about the world’s second-largest economy and stronger competition from Chinese domestic firms in industries such as cars. Should the decline continue for the rest of the year, it would be the first annual net outflow in FDI since at least 1990, when comparable data begins.

According to Bloomberg, companies that have pulled back some China operations this year include automakers Nissan Motor and Volkswagen, along with others like Konica Minolta; Nippon Steel said in July it was exiting a joint venture in China, while IBM is shutting down a hardware research team in the country, a decision affecting about 1,000 employees.

The prospect of an expanded trade war and deteriorating relations with Beijing during US President-elect Donald Trump’s second term may further weigh on investment. “Geopolitical tension” is the topmost concern for members of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, according to the group’s chair, Allan Gabor.

“It makes it difficult to plan big investments, but on the contrary, we see a lot of members making small and medium-sized investments,” Gabor said in an interview with Bloomberg TV last week during the China International Import Expo. “It’s a much more surgical investment environment.”

Still, government efforts in late September to stimulate the economy has already benefited one group of foreign investors, with the value of stocks held by foreigners jumping more than 26% from August, according to separate data from the central bank. The Chinese benchmark stock index gained almost 21% in September after the start of a coordinated stimulus effort, although it has since given up some of those gains.  

By contrast, outbound investment from China has been rising sharply. In the third quarter, Chinese firms increased their overseas assets by about $34 billion, according to the preliminary data from SAFE. That took outflows so far this year to $143 billion, the third-highest total on record for the period.

Chinese companies such as BYD Co. have been rapidly increasing their overseas footprint to secure raw materials and build up production capacity in foreign markets. That trend is likely to continue and expand, as more countries put tariffs on some Chinese exports such as steel and the US threatens to impose punitive tariffs on all Chinese goods.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 14:45

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/3SIgeTd Tyler Durden

Dear Arizona, How Long Does It Take To Count Votes?

Dear Arizona, How Long Does It Take To Count Votes?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The unfortunate answer may be another two weeks.

Image courtesy of the Washington Post, annotations by Mish.

Arizona Central addresses the issue Why does it take Arizona so long to count votes? This problem is fixable

While the rest of the country is moving on, we in Arizona are stuck in an election night time warp. Waiting to see whether we sent Ruben Gallego or Kari Lake to Washington.

Maricopa County elections officials have said it’ll take 10 to 13 days to finish counting votes.

It’s embarrassing. It’s frustrating. It’s ridiculous. And worst of all, it gets the conspiracy crowd all riled up, certain that there’s a plot afoot to steal Arizona’s vote.

Don’t blame (Republican run) Maricopa County. From what I’ve seen, the board of supervisors ran a remarkably smooth election.

it’s just not realistic that nearly a quarter of a million people can drop off early ballots on Election Day, then expect to know who won a close race on election night.

Unexpected Problems Counting Ballots

VoteBeat explains Arizona election results delayed as counties experience unexpected problems counting ballots

Update, Nov. 9: American Civil Liberties Union and the Campaign Legal Center filed an emergency petition to the Arizona Supreme Court on Saturday morning, asking the court to extend the deadline for voters to respond to problems with their mail ballot signatures. The original deadline is 5 p.m. Sunday. Because of the delays in counting ballots and notifying voters of problems, the organizations want voters to be given an additional two to four days to respond to notices, depending on how officials notify voters there is a problem.

An updated statewide number of uncounted ballots wasn’t available Friday morning, but as of Thursday night, four of 15 counties — Cochise, Pima, Yavapai, and Yuma — still had more than 25% of their ballots left to count.

Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, still had about 20% uncounted as of Thursday night, including 274,000 mail ballots that had not yet gone through even the first step of verifying the voter signature on the outside of the envelope.

Maricopa County, the state’s largest county, still had about 20% uncounted as of Thursday night, including 274,000 mail ballots that had not yet gone through even the first step of verifying the voter signature on the outside of the envelope.

The long, two-page ballot that many counties had in this election was to blame for delays in at least some instances. For example, in Maricopa County and Pima County, it’s taking longer to remove mail ballots from their envelopes and unfold and inspect them.

In other counties, the problems vary. Cochise County is experiencing a mechanical problem with its tabulators that’s causing them to operate slowly, and still had 57% of its ballots to count as of Thursday night. The county was able to count only a few ballots at a time over the last day, though the tabulator is still counting correctly, according to JP Martin, a spokesperson for the Secretary of State’s Office. A technician from the tabulator company arrived Thursday night to help, and the company may need to send a new machine, Martin said.

In both Yavapai and Pinal counties, tabulating polling place results from Election Day took much longer than expected because of unclear voter marks that had to be sorted out before results from the polling place could be reported. Pinal took 24 hours to count just the polling place ballots, and Yavapai took until Friday morning.

Four Key Things

  • Arizona allows “early” votes to be dropped off on election day.

  • Then the first step is a manual signature verification.

  • If the signature verification fails, voters get a chance to verify it.

  • And now it’s possible, if not likely, the Arizona Supreme Court will extend the cure figure.

Every one of those will fuel conspiracy theories by the losing party.

My Math

I crunched the numbers. There are four key counties in play.

Tiny Cochise county may deliver 9,000 more votes for Kari Lake because so many votes are outstanding.

But even if we assume reasonably good totals for Lake in Maricopa County (Phoenix), say even instead -3.6 percent, it looks like Pima County (Tucson) will carry the day for Gallego if the turnout is close to what we have seen.

Lake can win if she dramatically outperforms in the rest of the Maricopa County vote.

But from where I sit, it looks like Kari Lake loses by about 1.0 to 1.6 percent.

Regardless, Arizona seriously needs to rethink how it runs elections.

Trump Will Have a Second Chance to put a Gold Advocate on the Fed, Go For It!

In case you missed it, please see Trump Will Have a Second Chance to put a Gold Advocate on the Fed, Go For It!

Judy Shelton in back in play for a Fed nominee. Please do it President Trump.

Also see Why Trump Won the Election in One Clear Picture

There is massive Democrat soul searching today. Hardly anyone will get it right. This is despite huge evidence all year long.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 14:25

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/YR2v9re Tyler Durden

Animal Spirits

Animal Spirits

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

US markets have been in risk-on mode since early votes for Miami-Dade County (usually a Democrat stronghold) in Florida hinted that US voters would be sending Donald Trump back to the White House. The S&P500 had its best week of a very good year last week to close 4.66% higher than the previous Friday. A well-telegraphed 25bps Fed rate cut helped the rally to last into the weekend, with assists from the BOE and Rijksbank who both cut their own policy rates.

The extra liquidity from the Fed cut probably helped Bitcoin to crack the $80k barrier over the weekend. That’s up $10k/coin in the space of one week as crypto bros anticipate a more friendly regulatory attitude emanating from the White House once Trump is inaugurated early next year. RaboResearch is expecting a 25bp cut in December and another in January. After that we think the Fed will be on hold as Trump hits the ground running with executive orders on tariffs and deportations, and legislation to cut taxes that will be a strong chance of passing through Congress now that the Republicans appear to be on track to secure majorities in both houses. The margin in the House might be thin, but it would be a brave GOP dissenter to push back against a renewed MAGA mandate that saw a Republican candidate for the Presidency win the popular vote for just the second time in 30+ years.

Elon Musk has come away as a big winner from the election. As one ham joked on X, Musk “spent $44 billion on Twitter and all he got was control of all 3 branches of the federal government.”

Tesla stock closed a touch over 29% higher last week, suggesting that markets aren’t concerned that Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” rhetoric or past criticisms of green energy subsidies contained in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will put a dent in the outlook for future earnings. Either that or markets are still just trading vibes at this point.

So, in a nutshell the animal spirits are back, but not every security is sending an unsubtle ‘risk-on’ message. US 10-year treasury bonds, for instance, actually closed last week higher. Yields fell 8bps on the week, despite a 16bps rise last Wednesday when the Trump win was first confirmed. Spot gold fell 1.89% to $2,685/oz, marking a second consecutive week of losses after a strong run of gains since the start of the year.

Diverging price action in gold and Treasuries is interesting. People buy gold for different reasons, but one way to think of gold is as an infinite duration, zero-coupon adjustable face value bond. The face value of gold has been adjusting higher all year as markets priced in lower policy rates at the front end, a future awash with debt, and uncertainty over the future role of the Dollar as reserve currency. It’s certainly too early to call a halt in the rally (especially while the fundamentals appear conducive), but the strong surge in the Dollar post-election has seen the $2,800/oz resistance level respected for the time being.

While US equities have been surging, the same cannot be said of other markets. The EuroStoxx 50 closed down 1.54% last week – it’s fourth-consecutive weekly loss – and the FTSE100 fell by 1.28% (it’s third consecutive weekly loss). The divergence comes despite US equities being priced much more richly than their European counterparts. Debt securities told a similar tale, with both 10y Gilts and Bunds outperforming their US counterparts over the course of the week.

So, ‘Make America Great Again’ is in the price, while managed decline in Europe seems to also be in the price. European leaders are understandably unhappy about this. Emmanuel Macron responded to Trump’s election win with a strange metaphor about herbivores and carnivores, which seemed to suggest that the European Union would be on the menu while the United States and China battled it out for geopolitical dominance.

The recent disintegration of Olaf Scholz’s government in Germany perhaps hints that Macron isn’t too far wide of the mark. Fresh figures last week confirmed an acceleration in the decline of German industrial production, while trade numbers also confirmed a fall in exports and final PMIs again revealed a manufacturing sector in rapid retreat. Forced weaning off cheap Russian gas has collided with a challenging geopolitical and trade outlook to make Germany in 2024 start to look a bit like Britain in 1974 (except without the debt problem).

Perhaps emblematic of the malaise is the startling admission of the President of the German electoral commission, Ruth Brand, that Germany may lack the state capacity to hold snap elections due to a shortage of paper ballots. Commenting on the logistics surrounding potential timing of an election, the CDU’s Thorsten Frei reportedly said “we must be careful not to make ourselves look ridiculous internationally with a debate at this level.Unfortunately the horse may have bolted on that score.

Thankfully, European leaders seem to recognize the difficult position that the union finds itself in, although solutions remain elusive. Strategic autonomy may be the goal for leaders like Macron, but that recalls the punchline of a popular joke that in order to get there “I wouldn’t start from here”. EU leaders meeting in Budapest issued a statement on Friday committing to improve the functioning of the single market, take steps towards a savings and investments union by 2026, ensure industrial renewal and decarbonization, pursue energy sovereignty and pursue an “ambitious, robust, open and sustainable trade policy” (among other things).

These are all admirable ambitions, but the ‘how’ is going to be much more important than the ‘what’ for items like energy sovereignty, while ambitions for open trade looks like a continuation of wishful thinking in an increasingly mercantilist environment. As our Global Analyst Michael Every has recently elucidated, economic statecraft is becoming more important than ever. Perhaps the political animals of the EU need to do more to recapture the spirit that led to previous success?

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 13:50

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/OYStobP Tyler Durden

Trump Names Stephen Miller As Deputy Chief Of Policy, Vance Confirms

Trump Names Stephen Miller As Deputy Chief Of Policy, Vance Confirms

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump is naming longtime adviser Stephen Miller to be the deputy chief of policy in his upcoming administration, according to Vice President-elect JD Vance.

Then-White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, then-National Trade Council adviser Peter Navarro, then- Senior Adviser Jared Kushner, then- policy adviser Stephen Miller, and then-chief strategist Steve Bannon watch as former President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Jan. 23, 2017. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Vance, a Republican Ohio senator, wrote a message of congratulations to Miller on social media platform X, describing the move as “another fantastic pick by the president.” He was responding to a message on X that cited CNN as saying Miller would be named as deputy chief of policy.

The report from CNN, which cited anonymous sources connected to Trump, first reported on the development Monday. Neither Trump nor Miller have commented on Vance’s comment or the reports.

Miller was a senior adviser in Trump’s first term and has been a central figure in many of his policy decisions, namely focusing on illegal immigration and border security. Miller also helped craft many of Trump’s speeches and plans on immigration.

The Epoch Times has contacted the Trump campaign for comment Monday.

Since Trump’s first term in the White House ended in 2021, Miller served as the president of America First Legal, a legal group that has filed a number of lawsuits against the Biden administration, universities, and media companies over issues such as immigration, religion, and freedom of speech.

Other than Miller, Trump has so far named campaign manager Susie Wiles as his chief of staff, former Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) chief Tom Homan as his “border czar,” and Rep. Elsie Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as his U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

“I am pleased to announce that the Former ICE Director, and stalwart on Border Control, Tom Homan, will be joining the Trump Administration, in charge of our Nation’s Borders (‘The Border Czar’), including, but not limited to, the Southern Border, the Northern Border, all Maritime, and Aviation Security,” Trump said on Truth Social.

He added, “I’ve known Tom for a long time, and there is nobody better at policing and controlling our Borders,” adding that Homan “will be in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin.”

Regarding Stefanik’s nomination, Trump described her as a “incredibly strong, tough, and smart America First fighter.”

Trump wrote Saturday in a social media post that he will “not be inviting back Nikki Haley, who served as his UN ambassador in his first stint in the White House, along with well as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who also served as his CIA director. Haley, a former South Carolina governor, ran against Trump in the GOP primary before she dropped out and endorsed him for president earlier this year.

Along with carrying out mass deportations, Trump has promised to sign an executive order on his first day in office to prevent agencies from giving automatic American citizenship to children who are born of illegal immigrants who are in the United States, known as birthright citizenship.

Trump likely will also resume construction of a border all along the U.S.-Mexico border, a promise he made often during the 2016 campaign cycle. More than 400 miles of border barrier were erected or replaced during his first administration, according to an archived news release issued by the first Trump administration in late 2020.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 11/11/2024 – 13:30

via ZeroHedge News https://ift.tt/ocXYjp1 Tyler Durden