Month: November 2024

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Executive order drafts are being prepared. Here’s five things to discuss.

Five Things

1. Immigration: Trump has said he would reimplement on day one his “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires asylum seekers to stay in Mexico until their cases are processed by U.S. immigration courts.

2. The Wall: He has also said he would resume construction of the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border—something he repeatedly criticized the Biden administration for failing to continue.

3. Pardons: Fire Jack Smith and pardon Jan. 6 offenders. Trump has called the people facing charges hostages and political prisoners.

4. Climate: Trump has said that he will sign an executive order once again withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement, the international treaty which implements the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. President Biden on his first day in office had brought the U.S. back into the Obama-era accord after Trump had pulled out of it in 2019. Officials close to Trump said the order has been drafted and will be ready for Trump to sign on his first day in office.

5. Transgender Student Protections: In April, the Biden administration unveiled a final set of changes to Title IX to cover discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity for the first time. Trump has vowed to revoke such protections for transgender students the day he takes office.

The above list is from the Wall Street Journal article What Trump Can—and Can’t—Do on Day One.

I agree with most of those, at least partially.

1: I am fine with remain in Mexico but we do need faster decisions on an outcome.

2: If the wall was funded, then it can continue. If not, Trump can’t do that on day one.

3: I strongly disagree with blanket pardons, but I am OK with pardons for anyone who was totally peaceful (no destruction of property or violent actions). My guess is Trump will go way overboard.

4: Go for it. End the nonsense.

5: No new protections were ever needed in the first place. Adding them made a huge mess of things with absurd state actions and interpretations.

Here are some other ideas from the article

Mass Deportations

Trump has vowed to implement “the largest deportation program in American history” as soon as he takes office. Although such a massive logistical feat would likely take longer to carry out, officials familiar with his planning said it is likely he will sign a pre-drafted executive order when he takes office ordering the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies to deport undocumented migrants.

Mass deportations would be a huge mistake, especially for those here for over two years and is working, those with citizen spouses, and those with citizen children.

But please deport the criminals. Start there, then intelligently think about how to proceed.

Otherwise, many states will not go along.

Ending Birthright Citizenship

Trump has also said he would use executive action on his first day in office to put a stop to granting birthright citizenship to children born to anyone who entered the U.S. illegally. This is likely to face legal challenges.

We can debate the merits of the idea, but there would be a court challenge and Trump would lose.

The Constitution says “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

That seems clear to me. The phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” refers the children of foreign diplomats and invading foreign enemies.

Vox has an Excellent Discussion of Birthright Citizenship.

Trump would be wise to not step into this mess.

Ukraine and Israel

Trump has vowed to take several measures aimed at putting what he sees as America’s interests first and has vowed to end conflicts around the world, including in Ukraine and the Middle East, before he takes office. Among them, he has said he would give priority to American national security and economic interests at home over paying billions to support allies abroad, and would impose steep tariffs on imports to stimulate domestic job creation.

Trump may have luck encouraging Ukraine, which has been losing ground, to the negotiating table, but Russia’s Vladimir Putin—as well as Hamas and Israel—have shown no signs they want to end the fighting in their respective conflicts.

Ukraine and Israel are not day one issues that can be addressed by executive order.

Trump has also said that he would demand the resignation of any general involved in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by “noon on Inauguration Day.”

Demanding resignation is doable, but Firing is Complicated, says Lawfire.

The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party

The most disturbing day one action would be blanket deportations. I strongly disagree. But that won’t be day one regardless.

I discussed blanket deportations and the Dignity Act in The New Home for Hispanics is the Republican Party

Please click on the link and play the interview with Republican Florida rep. Maria Salazar. 

I endorse the bipartisan Dignity Act she sponsored. It is exceptionally balanced and well thought out. But it’s not what Trump promised.

Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times,

“You can never go home again” rings true for combat veterans, especially the part of them that can never forget.

People have called war many things—cruel and tragic, the final court of appeals, a racket, and the most noble thing people can do for their country. It depends on how you look at it.

Lysander Caligo, 39, a former U.S. Marine from Mesa, Arizona, saw the beauty and ugliness of the battlefield in Afghanistan in the early 2000s.

Lysander Caligo, a former U.S. Marine who served in Afghanistan, stands behind a mesh barrier at a restaurant in Mesa, Ariz., on Nov. 3, 2024. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

He was a counterintelligence specialist with the Third Battalion, Seventh Marines, and he hunted high-value targets for eight months before his discharge.

Though Caligo, the man, would return to civilian life, the boy in him would never see home again.

Sitting at a restaurant table, Caligo told The Epoch Times that Afghanistan shattered his rose-colored glasses.

On his right bicep is a tattoo of Che Guevara, the Argentine Marxist revolutionary.

He said it is a long story how he got the tattoo, and he is not a fan of communism. The short version is that the tattoo is a constant reminder of the uncertain nature of war, and of a high-value Taliban target—the one who eluded him—who used Guevara’s tactics to significant effect.

“We take violence and aggression and death as something very personal,” Caligo said. “It’s an offense to us—it’s an offense to our senses. It’s an offense to our lives.”

But the reality on the battlefield is different.

“The reality is that death and war are very impersonal. You see that very quickly. If you don’t, you end up having mental issues,” he said.

‘War Is Human Nature’

Caligo sees conflict as both a shock to the system and a necessity—a perpetual state of human existence written into the human genome.

Soldiers go to war and are injured. Soldiers die. If they are lucky, they will go home intact. There is no room for “boyish idealism,” Caligo said.

Even though his job as a soldier demanded violence, his conscience is clean.

“I never did anything so terrible that I had to question myself morally,” Caligo said.

“I could stop myself in those moments and think about how they would impact me in the future and how my future self would look at me. I’ve had those moments. … I’m lucky there.”

Caligo said it was more direct and personal to kill with a sword or spear in ancient times, compared to using today’s bullets, drone strikes, or bombs. He learned that firsthand when he met enemy insurgents hiding in plain sight or as he walked through a field or along the roadside.

“Bombs are the worst things because bombs were so [expletive] scary. You were fearful every step you took,” he said.

“Imagine taking every step and thinking, ‘I’m either going to be disfigured or badly injured.’ The biggest fear was losing limbs. Then there were the concussions,” traumatic brain injury, and post-traumatic stress that followed, he said.

U.S. Marines direct a Chinook helicopter arriving to pick up a container with supplies at Forward Operating Base Edi in the Helmand Province of southern Afghanistan on June 9, 2011. Anja Niedringhaus/AP Photo

The former staff sergeant can’t place an exact number on the people he aimed his rifle at during missions.

“But the boy inside me died. The rose-colored way of looking at the world through an ideological lens died—and I’m glad,” he said.

“You learn your base roots as a human being … that it’s there and it’s always going to be there.”

One of the most challenging parts of coming home for Caligo was seeing how much he had changed compared to everyone else.

Band of Brothers

His experience in war surprised him; it was not only about life or death, dog-eat-dog, or black-or-white survival in the desert. “I hate to say it—it was beautiful,” he said.

Most people never get to experience the closeness that develops between combat soldiers, who live every day and die together.

“It’s you and your bros,” Caligo said. “It’s about fighting and eating and cleaning your weapon and doing it all over again.”

U.S. Army flight medic SGT Tyrone Jordan (R) of Dustoff Task Force Shadow, 101st Combat Aviation Brigade, helps Marines carry a wounded Afghani man to a MEDEVAC helicopter near Marjah, Afghanistan, on Sept. 29, 2010. Scott Olson/Getty Images

“We loved it. Not like it was any sadistic thing. It’s just that it was real. Then, you come back to this illusion. You start to see how fake and phony people are—dressing in the latest fashions, buying furniture, buying vehicles, buying X, Y, Z, to try to fit in or be someone else.”

It’s reality—raw and painful, but with meaning and purpose—in the field of combat, he said. You’re there for your fellow soldier.

Sam, 55, a former Marine who lives in eastern Arizona, served in the Seventh Marine Regiment, First Battalion, during Operation Desert Storm from 1990 to 1991. He received a medal for exemplary conduct in battle.

“The Marine Corps is great at treating you like a man and holding you accountable for your [actions],” Sam, who asked not to use his surname, told The Epoch Times.

“When you come back and there’s civilians around you, you look at everybody differently—in a bad way.

A long line of vehicles, including destroyed Iraqi Army Russian-made T-62 tanks and trucks, stand abandoned by fleeing Iraqi troops on the outskirts of Kuwait City on March 1, 1991. Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait on Aug. 2, 1990, led to the Gulf War, which began Jan. 16, 1991. Pascal Guyot/Getty Images

“There were no happy pills or things like that.”

Sam, like Caligo, said that combat made him grow up quickly.

Into the Lion’s Den

The day ended with poor visibility in late February 1991, and Sam radioed ahead after spotting an Iraqi tank dug in and firing at his unit near al Jabbar.

The Marine lance corporal destroyed the tank with one anti-tank missile shot to the front turret.

He engaged an enemy personnel carrier and destroyed it on the second day of fighting. He identified an enemy platoon on the third day of battle and was able to destroy multiple vehicles using three BGM-71 TOW missiles.

Sam received a Navy commendation medal for his “exemplary and highly professional conduct” and is humble about it.

“There are lots of guys who did more than I did,” he said.

“It was an interesting transition coming back. I’m super glad I did the Marine Corps. It was the best thing I ever did. The second best thing was getting out, but that’s just me.”

The war in the Persian Gulf killed 219 Americans, while the war on terror killed 7,000 soldiers and 8,000 contractors.

Marsha Vance, a member of American Legion Post 30 in Springerville, Ariz., stands outside the hall on Nov. 9, 2024. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times

Marsha Vance, from Springerville, Arizona, is the daughter of the late Wallace Tucker, who served as an Air Force sharpshooter in Vietnam from 1966 to 1969.

“He didn’t really want to talk about it,” said Vance, a member of American Legion Post 30 in Springerville. “He didn’t want to do it. He carried those memories all those years.”

During the eight-year U.S. military intervention in Vietnam, more than 58,000 men and women in uniform died.

In Vietnam, Tucker left his innocence behind.

The Vietnam Veterans Monument at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, Calif., on March 29, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

“He did have some poems he wrote about Vietnam—about seeing the things a human being should never see and do to another human being and that he never should have done,” Vance said.

She cries when she thinks about her father and the terrible things he went through, and how he dealt with it until he died from Agent Orange complications at age 68.

“He had to grow up fast. He had to be quick and make split-second decisions. It was either him or them,” Vance said. “It was something he never recovered from completely.

“There are certain things he wouldn’t talk about, and I wouldn’t push it because I knew it would trigger him.”

Her father lies buried in the National Memorial Cemetery of Arizona in Phoenix.

Never the Same

Caligo feels that he has mostly transitioned back into society since he left the military. An avid fitness and Brazilian jiujitsu enthusiast, he recently opened a health club, Deep End Scottsdale.

“The beauty of going to war,” Caligo said, is figuratively “killing the boy” inside.

“You went into the abyss. You’re not supposed to come back out the same person,” he said.

The post-Trump rally has returned full force, and US equity futures are sharply higher and well above 6,000 in what should be a light volume day with bonds closed due to the Veteran’s Day holiday. As of 8:00am ET, the breakdown is as follow: S&P futures 0.46bps, which hit their 50th all time high for 2024 on Friday; NDX +38bps; RTY +146bps; Crude -222bps; Bitcoin +290bps and at a record over $82,000 with global markets trading broadly higher as they continue to digest US election results + FOMC cut last week. R2K the standout and remains in focus, up over 8.5% last week for its best week since March of 2020. S&P + NDX both closed the week at ATHs. As JPM writes in its market intel note, the Trump Trade has potential to strengthen; TSLA is +7% pre-mkt as small caps outperform by ~1%-pt. The balance of Mag7 are weaker as are Semis, Financials continue to be bid up in what is a new regime. While US bond markets were shut for a holiday (although futures indicate a roughly 5bps rise in yields), the dollar rallied 0.3% against a basket of currencies, adding to a six-week winning streak as both EUR and JPY come from sale. Dollar strength appear to be weighing on commodities as China stimulus once again disappoints and is sold; gold reversed an earlier gain to trade at session lows of $2,660. Meanwhile, Trump and Elon Musk are making demands of the next Senate Republican leader, including allowing the President-elect to make recess appointments without Senate approval. No US data or Fed speakers scheduled for the session.

In premarket trading, the biggest gainer of the day was Tesla which rose as much as 7.3%. Its valuation surpassed $1 trillion on Friday, on a view that a Trump presidency will be a positive for Elon Musk’s company. Crypto-linked stocks also gained in premarket trading as Bitcoin rallied past $82,000 for the first time on the prospect of a Republican-led Congress with pro-crypto lawmakers (Riot Platforms (RIOT US) +14%, MARA Holdings (MARA US) +19%, Bit Digital (BTBT US) +21%, Coinbase (COIN US) +16%, Hut 8 Mining ADRs (HUT US) +12%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +11%, Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) +10%). Here are some notable premarket movers: 

• Cabot (CBT US) shares fall 1% after the carbon black company was downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Celanese (CE US) shares slip 0.7% after the specialty materials company was cut to underperform from market perform at BMO Capital Markets, which said there were “too many risks ahead for too little reward.”
• Cisco Systems (CSCO US) shares rise 1.9% as JPMorgan lifted the maker of computer networking equipment to overweight from neutral, citing recovery in networking and further valuation headroom.

“Between now and the end of the year, I can easily see how the US market particularly will continue to be strong on hopes that everything Trump has said will come to pass, particularly when it gets confirmed that he got a clean sweep,” said Nick Clay, portfolio manager at Redwheel.

While it feels like the year is largely over and it’s all autopilot until 2025, the wait is now on for the next slug of inflation data due Wednesday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory, with annual price growth seen to have quickened slightly to 2.6% in October. Traders will also listen out for Fed policymakers’ speeches after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated on weekend that rates could ease less than previously expected due to the strong economy (amazing how that happened just days after Trump won).

In Europe,the Estoxx 50 advanced 1.2% on the day, with construction, chemical and industrial shares leading gains. While Trump’s pledge to impose hefty tariffs on trade partners has weighed heavily on European shares, the Stoxx 600 index rebounded after three weeks of declines. The gauge added 0.9%, with all industry groups in the index climbing, as the mood was lifted by a slew of robust company earnings, including German tiremaker Continental AG and insurance firm Hannover Re. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Continental rises as much as 9.3%, the most since July, after the German firm reported third quarter Ebit that beat estimates. Bernstein says the beat is due to strength in the tire division
• Croda rises as much as 5.5% as the chemicals company reconfirms full-year guidance amid stable demand and cost efficiency measures. Analysts point to life sciences as a stand-out performer
• Swiss Re shares rise as much as 4.7% to their highest level since 2002, after a double upgrade from UBS, which says the stock is now its preferred European reinsurer instead of Munich Re
• Hannover Re shares advanced as much as 4.3% as the German reinsurer raised its 2024 profit target and forecast net income for 2025 of about EU2.4 billion
• Ceres Power rallies as much as 11% on Monday, snapping a run of five straight declines, as Jefferies upgrades to buy on growing market awareness of the company’s technology
• Cellnex shares rise as much as 2.3% after the tower operator said it’s in talks with credit rating agencies to assess whether it can start returning capital to shareholders next year
• Pantheon Resources shares jump as much as 18% to touch 4-1/2-month highs, after the oil and gas company began drilling the Megrez-1 well in the Ahpun field in Alaska
• Leonardo rises as much as 5.2%, to highest since Sept. 2000, after both Bernstein and Mediobanca boost their price targets on the Italian defense company to a new Street-high of €30
• NatWest rises as much as 2.1% after the bank bought £1b of its own shares from the UK government, as part of the directed buyback program. Shore Capital says this came sooner than expected
• Lem Holding tumbles as much as 21%, to the lowest level since March 2020, after the Swiss electrical components maker posted underwhelming first-half results and issued a weak outlook

Earlier, Asian equities fell by the most in a month as Beijing’s latest economic measures disappointed the market, and soft China inflation data signaled that recent efforts to spur economic growth have not been enough. China’s CSI 300 benchmark fell as much as 1.4%, before erasing losses to close with modest gains. Oil pared losses to trade flat after China’s latest efforts disappointed markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.3% before trimming some losses, with Samsung Electronics among the biggest drags alongside Chinese megacaps Tencent and Meituan. Most key gauges in the region were in the red, with the Hang Seng Index falling 1.5%. South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 1%, while Japanese shares closed little changed. While stocks in Hong Kong slid, those on the mainland recovered a 1.4% drop to close the day higher. The mixed reactions underscore investor confusion over Beijing’s stimulus announcement, which stopped short of providing new plans to rev up its consumption or the property sector. China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) program Friday to refinance “hidden” local debt. Figures released over the weekend showed anemic consumer inflation in October while producer prices continued falling, indicating government stimulus has been insufficient to pull the economy out of deflation

“The latest debt swap provides temporary relief to local government finances, benefiting sectors like real estate and banking,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X ETFs. “However, the swap’s limited scale and lack of consumer-focused stimulus leave broader markets cautious. Note that there are still concerns on tariff pressures and domestic monetary easing efforts which could have execution challenges.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.4% and remains near best levels of the day into early US session, while the euro fell to its lowest versus the dollar since June 27 amid broad dollar strength with the yen leading losses (EUR/USD dropped 0.3% to 1.0682, down a second day). USD/JPY rallies 0.8% to 153.85 with US Treasury futures under pressure

In rates, treasury futures opened down in Asia and have broadly held losses, leaving the 10-year tenor lower by around 9 ticks on the day. There is no cash Treasuries trading due to a US holiday, but the drop in futures points to a 10-year yield that’s roughly 5 basis points higher than Friday’s closing levels.

US 10-year note futures sit around the 110-00 level, down around 9 ticks on the day. Further out, ultra-long bond futures are down around 12 ticks, implying a bear-steepening move in cash yields. In Europe, Bunds – which are open – advance with German yields richer by as much as 3.5bp across long-end of the curve, with the impact of potential German elections on the country’s debt brake and future issuance unclear. Back in the US, the treasury auction slate resumes Nov. 20 with 20-year bond sale; 2-, 5- and 7-year note auctions are scheduled week commencing Nov. 25.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1.5% to $69.30 a barrel. Spot gold drops $15 to $2,670/oz. Iron ore declined toward $100 a ton.

Looking at today’s calendar, no Fed members scheduled to speak on Monday, and US data slate is empty as it is Veteran’s day, and bond markets are closed. This week’s data includes CPI, PPI, Empire manufacturing, retail sales and industrial production.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 6,042.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 511.49
• MXAP down 0.9% to 187.81
• MXAPJ down 0.9% to 596.07
• Nikkei little changed at 39,533.32
• Topix little changed at 2,739.68
• Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 20,426.93
• Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,470.07
• Sensex little changed at 79,507.60
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,266.22
• Kospi down 1.2% to 2,531.66
• German 10Y yield down 5.2 bps at 2.32%
• Euro down 0.4% to $1.0672
• Brent Futures down 0.8% to $73.26/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.7% to $2,666.45
• US Dollar Index up 0.38% to 105.40

Top Overnight News

• China’s trade surplus in on pace to hit ~$1T this year, a dynamic that will create huge trade tensions between Beijing and other countries, especially the Trump-led White House. BBG
• China disinflation/deflation deepens in Oct, w/the CPI coming in +0.3% (down from +0.4% in Sept and below the Street’s +0.4% forecast) and PPI at -2.9% (down from -2.8% in Sept and below the Street’s -2.5% forecast). SCMP
• China’s credit expansion slowed more than expected in October, as a surge in government bond sales far exceeded growth in lending during a traditionally slow month for financing activity: BBG
• Bank of Japan board members discussed the need for caution on raising its benchmark rate and offered no clear hint of a move next month, a summary of opinions from its October policy meeting showed. BBG
• Taiwan is considering large US defense purchases as an overture to the incoming Trump administration, the FT reported. BBG
• Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday that his country has defeated Hezbollah and that eliminating its leader Hassan Nasrallah was the crowning achievement. Reuters
• TSMC was told by the US to halt shipments of some advanced chips to China starting today. Reuters, BBG
• Powell is prepared for a legal battle if Trump attempts to hire him before the end of his term. WSJ
• Citigroup’s CEO Jane Fraser expects a significant easing in bank regulations in a Trump administration. BBG
• Bitcoin rallied past $82,000 for the first time, boosted by Donald Trump’s embrace of digital assets and the prospect of pro-crypto lawmakers in Congress. It won’t be long before attention shifts toward call-option buyers’ hopes for the token to top $100,000, MLIV said. BBG
• Fed’s Kashkari (2026 voter) said if growth and productivity are strong, the Fed may not cut as much, while he reiterated that housing inflation will take a while to come down all the way and they have made progress but want to get the job done on inflation. Kashkari also stated that the Fed wants to have confidence inflation will go all the way back to 2% and need to see more evidence before deciding on another cut.
• Edison Research projected Republicans won another seat in the US House bringing their total to 213, while Democrats have 204 seats with 218 needed for control.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly subdued amid China-related headwinds following the recent fiscal stimulus disappointment and softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data from over the weekend. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the commodity and consumer-related sectors. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively but with the initial downside cushioned alongside currency weakness. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong amid losses in property and tech although some chipmakers were boosted after the US ordered TSMC to halt shipments to China of chips used in AI applications. Elsewhere, the mainland traded cautiously after last Friday’s announcement of fiscal measures disappointed those hoping for a more forceful stimulus in the aftermath of the Trump election victory, while Chinese CPI and PPI data were softer-than-expected and showed a worsening of the factory-gate deflation

Top Asian News

• China’s Finance Ministry frontloads part of 2025’s central Govt. fiscal funds for affordable housing, renovation of villages, towns and residential quarters
• Ishiba will continue to be the Japanese PM, after receiving 221/465 lower house votes
• China International Import Expo saw a 2% Y/Y increase in intended transaction value to USD 80bln.
• China and Peru will sign a deal to strengthen a Free Trade Agreement with the improved FTA to increase commerce by at least 50%, while President Xi is to travel to Peru with 400 business people interested in investing in infrastructure and technology.
• TSMC (2330 TT) was ordered by the US to stop shipments to China of advanced chips used for AI applications.
• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the October meeting noted a member said no change to the BoJ’s stance it will adjust the degree of monetary support if its economic and price forecasts are met and a member said they must remain vigilant regarding the overseas economic outlook and market movements. There was also the opinion that risk of a US hard landing is subsiding but it cannot yet be said with certainty that markets are stabilising, while it was noted that the BoJ must communicate clearly that it will continue to raise the policy rate if its economic and price forecasts are met. Furthermore, a member said the BoJ must take time and move cautiously in raising rates and a member also stated that Japan is not in a phase where it needs massive monetary support, so the BoJ can consider additional rate hikes after pausing temporarily to gauge US economic developments.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+1%) opened on a strong footing and continued to climb higher into the morning; some of the upside has since subsided, with indices now traversing best levels. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only Basic Resources sitting ever-so-slightly in negative territory. The sector is weighed on by slight losses in metals prices, given the continued disappointing inflation metrics out of China. Construction & Materials tops the pile, joined by Insurance and then Chemicals thereafter. US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3% RTY +1.2%) are entirely in the green, with very clear outperformance in the economy-linked RTY, with the “Trump Trade” very much still in action.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves will set out the government’s plans to stimulate economic growth through the principles of stability, investment and reform, as well as hail the benefits of free trade amid impending US protectionism during her first Mansion House address on Thursday, according to FT.
• UK HMRC is set to return GBP 700mln to top UK companies after the UK won an appeal against a Brussels state aid clampdown which had forced London to collect tax against its wishes, according to FT.
• German Chancellor Scholz said he wouldn’t have a problem with a vote of confidence before Christmas and that there is a good chance he will win another mandate to form another government, according to CGTN Europe.
• ECB’s Holzmann said a rate cut is possible in December as things look at the moment and there is nothing at the moment that would argue against that but that does not mean it will automatically happen, while he added they do not have the latest forecasts and data which they will get in December and will decide on that basis.
• Fitch affirmed Spain at A-; Outlook revised to Positive from Stable, while it affirmed Poland at A; Outlook Stable and affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable. It was also reported that Moody’s upgraded Croatia to A3; Outlook changed to Stable from Positive.
• EU sees little chance of a quick China deal to avoid EV tariffs, via Bloomberg

FX

• DXY has started the week off on the front foot as markets continue to digest the likely impact of a Trump Presidency and a potential Republican sweep. DXY has extended above Friday’s peak at 105.20 but is yet to reclaim the post-election peak at 105.44.
• EUR has extended on Friday’s losses with EUR/USD slipping further onto a 1.06 handle. Absent an improvement in the Eurozone outlook, the pair could end up testing its YTD low from 16th April at 1.0601.
• GBP is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers with EUR/GBP hitting a fresh YTD low at 0.8282. Cable is tucked within Friday’s 1.2884-1.2989 range.
• JPY is the notable laggard across the majors with the ongoing reasssessment of the relative Fed vs. BoJ policy paths continuing to guide the pair. The latest BoJ summary of opinions has been noted as a potential source of weakness for the JPY with the account continuing to highlight a lack of urgency for immediate hikes. USD/JPY has been as high as 153.85.
• Antipodeans are both flat vs. the broadly stronger USD with some support garnered from the positive risk tone.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1786 vs exp. 7.1813 (prev. 7.1433).
• SNB Vice Chairman Martin said the central bank has made absolutely no commitment to future interest rate cuts and the next rate decision will depend on the assessment in December. Martin said the Franc is attractive as a safe haven and due to low Swiss inflation, while he added it is expected to appreciate in nominal terms in the future but real appreciation of the currency has been limited.

Fixed Income

• A firmer start to the week with Bunds taking some reprieve on murmurings that the German no-confidence motion could occur sooner than thought, while such a motion will likely snuff out the traffic light coalition, at least it resolves the uncertainty. Hit a 132.59 peak early doors before stabilising around 20 ticks off this but has since inched back up to a fresh 132.61 high.
• USTs are slightly softer, paring some of the gains seen on Thursday/Friday which were largely a rebound from Trump-induced pressure on Wednesday. Note, conditions today are thin with the calendar sparse and Veteran’s Day meaning cash trade is closed. Currently pivoting the 110-00 figure, a move lower has support between 109-30 to 109-07 from last week.
• Gilts were initially flat, but have been inching higher in recent trade, in-fitting with peers. Attention this week is on a speech from BoE’s Bailey, remarks which will be judged to see if the hawkish bias from last week. Currently, towards the upper-end of 94.00-94.43 parameters.

Crude

• Crude was initially firmer on the session but only modestly so. Focus on geopols, with the main update overnight being Qatar announcing that mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas are on hold. Thereafter, commentary via Al Arabiya that Hezbollah says there are negotiations to stop the war sparked marked pressure; Brent’Jan slumped to session lows of USD 72.79/bbl, but is just off worst levels.
• Spot gold is pressured, weighed on by the stronger USD and soft performance of China overnight as the region reacted to the lack of major stimulus in Friday’s session.
• Base metals are hampered by the stronger Dollar, the lack of China stimulus and disappointing CPI data from the region overnight weighing on metals generally. 3M LME Copper below the USD 9.5k handle.
• BSEE estimated that approximately 27.59% of the current daily oil production and 16.67% of the current daily natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in due to Tropical Storm Rafael. It was later reported that Chevron (CVX) began to redeploy personnel and restore output at its Gulf of Mexico platforms that was shut-in due to Rafael.
• Saudi crude oil supply to China set to fall 36.5mln barrels in December, according to Reuters citing sources. Two other North Asian refiners to receive full Saudi crude allocation for December

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Hezbollah says there are negotiations to stop the war, according to Al Arabiya.
• Israeli Foreign Minister says “We are ready to end the war when our objectives are achieved”; there is progress on Lebanon ceasefire talks, working with the Americans on this. No decision on the issue of annexing areas of the West Bank. The main challenge will be to enforce what is agreed. “The war is not over yet”. Hezbollah’s capabilities are severely reduced, majority of missile capacity is destroyed. Pushes back on the prospect of a Palestinian state, does not believe this is realistic. Israel has responded positively to Gaza ceasefire proposals, Hamas has refused to move forward. Trump has made it clear he understands the danger of Iran’s nuclear ambitions
• Israel called upon Israelis not to attend cultural and sports events abroad in the week ahead, according to a statement from the PM’s office.
• Israeli media reported sirens heard in central Israel and the Israeli army reported interception of a missile approaching Israel coming from Yemen, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israel conducted a strike on a residential building near Damascus which resulted in casualties, according to the Syrian state news agency.
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US will make a judgement this week about the progress Israel made over the Blinken/Austin letter on humanitarian aid to Gaza. Sullivan also stated that President Biden will go through the top US foreign policy and domestic issues with President-elect Trump on Wednesday and Biden will make the case to Congress that they need ongoing resources for Ukraine beyond the end of his term.
• Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said its mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas are currently on hold and reports it is withdrawing from the Gaza ceasefire mediation are not accurate, while it said it will resume mediating in ceasefire talks when there is enough seriousness to end the brutal war.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said a new scenario was fabricated after the US charged an Iranian man in the plot to kill President-elect Trump, while he said Iran is not after nuclear weapons and confidence building is needed from both sides.
• IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters deputy commander said Iran provides Hezbollah with ammunition and is not afraid of declaring it, while he added that Hezbollah has also publicly announced its affiliation with Iran, according to Iran International English.
• IAEA Director General Grossi will travel to Tehran this week for high-level meetings with the Iranian government.
• Iran announced the death of 5 security forces in an armed attack on the Pakistani border, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iraqi armed factions announce attack on a “vital target” in southern Israel with marches, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US-British aggression was reported on Yemen’s capital Sanaa and the Amran governorate, according to Al Masirah TV.
• Two personnel from Saudi-led coalition forces were killed in an attack by a Yemeni Defence Ministry employee in Yemen’s Seiyun.

Geopolitices: Other

• Russia’s Kremlin reports that rumors of a Putin/Trump call were false – there was no call.
• US President-elect Trump spoke on the phone with Russian President Putin on Thursday and discussed the war in Ukraine, while Trump urged Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine, according to The Washington Post.
• Russian Foreign Ministry said on Saturday that there are no grounds for talking about resuming dialogue with the US on strategic stability and arms, while it added that US President-elect Trump’s promises to resolve the crisis in Ukraine fast are nothing more than rhetoric.
• Russia and Ukraine launched their biggest drone attacks on each other since the start of the conflict, with several people injured in the tensions, according to LBC.
• Russian President Putin signed the law on ratification of the strategic partnership with North Korea, according to TASS.
• Ukrainian top military commander Syrski told a senior US general of reports regarding North Korean troops preparing to take part in combat alongside Russian forces, as well as noted that the front-line situation remains difficult and is showing signs of escalation.
• Ukrainian drones hit a chemical producer in Russia’s Tula region overnight.
• Chinese President Xi signed an order of regulations to guarantee military equipment, effective from December 1st.
• China’s Foreign Ministry said China firmly opposes the Philippines’ Marine Zones Act which severely infringes on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights in the South China Sea, while China’s Coast Guard said the Philippines has frequently sent military police, civilian vessels and aircraft to intrude into the air and sea space near Huangyan Island, which is also known as Scarborough Shoal.
• Philippines aims to buy a US missile launcher in a move likely to anger China, according to FT.

US Event Calendar

• Nothing scheduled/Veteran’s Day

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although it’s Veterans’ Day today, with US bond markets closed (equities open), it’s another important week with US CPI (Wednesday) the focal point. US data may not be as heavily scrutinised as usual at the moment as with the Trump victory, the market might conclude that there may be changes in animal spirits in the near-term and policy in the medium-term. On this, any clues on Trump’s appointments may be market moving. Case in point the Dollar’s rise immediately after the FT reported late Friday afternoon UK time that Robert Lighthizer would be asked to be the US Trade Representative in the new administration. Given how central he’s been to Trump’s views on trade it was surprising that the market was surprised. However there has been no confirmation of this appointment and other wires have suggested no such approach has been made.

Having said that US data might not be the most important events of the week, outside of CPI the US highlights are the Fed’s senior loan officers survey (SLOOS) tomorrow, PPI on Thursday and retail sales, on Friday. There are a lot of Fed speakers so their view of policy post the election will be interesting after Powell navigated this uncertainty well last week. Powell himself speaks again on Thursday. Internationally the key events will be UK employment and the German ZEW tomorrow, Japanese and Eurozone GDP alongside the ECB account of the October meeting on Thursday, and China’s main monthly data dump on Friday. See the full week ahead in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

In terms of US CPI, our economists (see “October CPI preview & webinar registration”), suggest that softer energy prices should lead headline CPI (+0.20% forecast vs. +0.18% previously) to be weaker than core (+0.26% vs. +0.31%) leading to a YoY rate that picks up a tenth in the headline to 2.5% but with core staying steady at 3.3% even if the 6-month rate would dip a tenth to 2.5%. Remember though that in the last several years the second half has been more seasonally favourable to inflation so it’s possible we’re coming towards the end of that help.

For context, and due to the election result, our economists are leaning towards core PCE inflation being upgraded from 2.2% in 2025 to around 2.5% and by around 0.5pp to 2.5% in 2026 as tariffs kick in. For growth the 2025 upgrade is likely to be from 2.2% to 2.5-2.75% but with 2026 downgraded a few tenths to 2% as tariffs offset the fiscal boosts. So the outlook becomes more complicated from here with most uncertainty around how aggressive the tariff regime will be. See Post election: Fiscal fuel trumps trade tensions for Fed for more on this and FOMC recap: Don’t hurry, Fed happy for the Fed implications where our economists believing now that the Fed may not be able to cut below 4%. Back in mid-September Dec 2025 Fed futures contracts were pricing in 2.78% so this is yet another example (around the 8th time) in this cycle where the market has got far, far too optimistic in terms of how much the Fed will be able to cut rates. For completeness, a reminder that our European economists have reacted to the US election result by taking their terminal ECB forecast to 1.5% (from 2%) due to the impact of the likely new trade policy.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning after Beijing’s latest stimulus measures largely underwhelmed, and the release of weak inflation data over the weekend. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-1.65%) is the biggest underperformer, after initially sliding almost -3.0%. The Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) has just nudged into positive territory as I type though after a weak morning session. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.87%) is trading noticeably lower, while the Nikkei is fairly flat. S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.25%) futures continue to rise.

Back to China, at the very end of last week the National People’s Congress announced a debt swap program worth about 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to improve local government finances. However, the stimulus package disappointed market expectations as it lacked direct fiscal stimulus and targeted measures to improve the housing market. Our China economist reviewed the package and suggests that the government clearly believes the current measures will help them hit their 5% growth target for 2024 without needing to go further at the moment. He also believes they are keeping some powder dry for the imposition of tariffs in 2025 and beyond. So perhaps we’ll see more targeted measures at the NPC next March.

Over the weekend, the Chinese inflation rate rose +0.3% year-over-year in October, missing expectations of a +0.4% increase and lower than the +0.4% gain seen in September. Inflation fell for the second straight month, dropping to its lowest in four months. Meanwhile, the PPI slipped by -2.9% year-over-year in October, marking the 25th consecutive month of decline, after a -2.8% drop in September and worse than the -2.5% decline forecast by Bloomberg.

Looking back at last week, US assets performed incredibly strongly after Trump’s win. Indeed, the S&P 500 was up +4.66% (+0.38% Friday), which is its best weekly performance of 2024 so far. Moreover, the gains mean the index has now surpassed its previous peak, with Friday marking its 50th record high of 2024. The gains were led by the more cyclical sectors, with consumer discretionary stocks posting a +7.62% advance last week, whilst the KBW Banks Index was up +8.42% (+0.31% Friday).

That rally was evident among other asset classes. In credit, US IG spreads tightened by -9bps (-1bps Friday) to 74bps, which is its tightest level since 1998. And HY spreads moved -19bps tighter (-11bps Friday) to 256bps, their tightest since 2007. Even sovereign bonds recovered their losses from earlier in the week, with the 10yr Treasury yield down -8.0bps (-2.3bps Friday), despite a +16.1bps surge on Wednesday after the election result became apparent. The front-end did see a modest sell-off, with the 2yr yield up +4.6bps last week (+5.5bps Friday). 2s10s is back to 5bps having been as steep as 22bps in late September.

Outside the US, there was a more mixed performance, with European assets struggling by comparison. For instance, the STOXX 600 fell -0.84% (-0.65% Friday), posting a third consecutive weekly decline. And there was a big underperformance for the STOXX 600 Automobiles & Parts Index given the prospect of higher tariffs, which fell -3.56% (-1.35% Friday). In the bond space, 10yr bunds were down by -3.9bps (-7.9bps Friday). That said, even as European assets struggled, there was a much better performance in Asia, where the Nikkei rose +3.80% last week (+0.30% Friday), whilst the Shanghai Comp was up +5.51% (-0.53% Friday).

Other notable moves included the euro (-1.07%) falling to its weakest against the dollar since June at 1.0718, while Bitcoin posted new record highs, rising to $76,450 on Friday. It’s traded as high as $81,832 this morning after a further surge over the weekend. In commodities, Brent crude was +1.05% higher over the week to $73.87/bbl, despite a -2.33% retreat on Friday that in part followed an underwhelming fiscal announcement out of China.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Podcast host Joe Rogan said he sees President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory as an opportunity to bridge divides and unite the country, urging Trump to avoid attacking his opponents and instead focus on being a unifying figure as he approaches his second term in the White House.

“This one is one of the first times ever where there’s a real chance to make real tangible change that’s gonna be for the good of everybody,” Rogan told guest Dave Smith on a Nov. 7 episode of his podcast.

“He’s got to unite people. He’s got to not attack the Left, not attack everybody. Let them all talk their [expletive], but unite,“ Rogan said. ”Now it’s time to unite everybody.”

Smith, a stand-up comedian and political commentator, agreed with Rogan, saying that Trump’s decisive victory—including winning the popular vote— gives him a “real mandate” to govern on behalf of all Americans.

Rogan, who endorsed Trump for president after interviewing him for three hours on his podcast, told Smith that Trump’s polarizing persona risks overshadowing important issues, comparing his approach to that of an insult comic whose career thrives of provocative statements and ridicule.

Trump, whose famous catchphrase as host of the hit reality TV show The Apprentice was “You’re fired!” and who’s known for giving his political opponents derisive nicknames, has been accused of seeking to exact vengeance on his foes after he assumes office. However, Trump has downplayed retribution talk, insisting he wants to bring the country together, a message he reiterated at an election watch party, when it became clear he would serve as the 47th commander-in-chief.

“Nothing will stop me from keeping my word to you, the people. We will make America safe, strong, prosperous, powerful and free again. And I’m asking every citizen all across our land to join me in this noble and righteous endeavor,” Trump told supporters and guests at the event in West Palm Beach, Florida, at around 2:30 a.m. on Nov. 6.

“It’s time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us,“ Trump continued. ”It’s time to unite, and we’re going to try. We’re going to try. We have to try. And it’s going to happen. Success will bring us together.”

Trump expressed confidence that success would foster unity, as he said it did during his first term, and called for a collective focus on “putting America first” to address the country’s challenges.

Despite the country’s deep political polarization, polling shows that Americans share many core beliefs about what it means to be an American, including equal protection under the law, the right to privacy, and freedom of speech and religion.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump said this week that his incoming administration has “no choice” but to carry out mass deportations of illegal immigrants, regardless of how much it may cost.

Speaking with NBC News on Thursday, the president-elect was asked about how much it would cost to carry out his deportation plan, which he made reference to numerous times during his presidential campaign.

“It’s not a question of a price tag,” Trump said, adding that “really, we have no choice.”

“When people have killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries. And now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here. There is no price tag.”

His campaign had pledged to expel about 11 million people who are not authorized to be in the United States, although Trump himself has said he believes that as many as 21 million are in the country illegally.

“We obviously have to make the border strong and powerful, and we have to—at the same time, we want people to come into our country,” he said before signaling that the United States still needs legal immigrants.

“And you know, I’m not somebody that says, ‘No, you can’t come in.’ We want people to come in.”

Both Democrats and the nonprofit American Immigration Council have been critical of the mass deportation proposal, with the NGO estimating in a report that Trump’s plan may cost as much as $315 billion overall.

In campaign events and media appearances, both Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance have said that Americans would see longstanding economic benefits from the deportation plan. During his only debate with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Vance said that illegal immigrants are a reason why housing and rent prices have soared across the United States in recent years.

“Kicking out illegal immigrants who are competing for those homes” would help bring down housing costs, Vance said on Oct. 1.

Some economists have disagreed with Vance’s assertions, saying that the increase in housing prices stems from a long period of underbuilding in the United States due to land-use regulations.

But aside from the economic impact, Vance has argued that illegal immigration has devastated parts of the country, including places that are far from the U.S. border with Mexico. Illegal immigrants have overwhelmed schools, hospitals, and other systems across the United States, he’s said on several occasions, including during his debate with Walz, who was Vice President Kamala Harris’s running mate.

“In communities all across this country, you’ve got schools that are overwhelmed, you’ve got hospitals that are overwhelmed, you have got housing that is totally unaffordable because we brought in millions of illegal immigrants to compete with Americans for scarce homes,” Vance said in his lone debate.

Trump has vowed to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, a 1798 law signed by second President John Adams that allows the president to deport any noncitizen from a country the United States is at war with. He has spoken about deploying the National Guard, which can be activated on orders from a governor.

Stephen Miller, a top Trump adviser, has said that troops under Republican governors would be sent to nearby states that refuse to participate.

Amid questions about how such a deportation plan would play out, Vance has said that deporting millions would be done one step at a time, not all at once.

“You start with what’s achievable,” Vance told ABC News over the summer. “I think that if you deport a lot of violent criminals and frankly if you make it harder to hire illegal labor, which undercuts the wages of American workers, I think you go a lot of the way to solving the illegal immigration problem.”

Andrew Arthur, a fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies, which supports immigration restrictions, said that the plan would not be akin to “a dragnet” on illegal immigrants.

“There’s no way you could do it. The first thing you have to do is seal the border and then you can address the interior,“ he said. ”All of this is going to be guided by the resources you have available.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

An official with the Federal Emergency Management Agency was “removed from their role” and is under investigation after the Daily Wire obtained a leaked internal message in which they ordered workers to bypass the homes of Trump supporters as they surveyed the damage caused by Hurricane Milton in Florida.

In the leaked message, a FEMA supervisor told workers to “avoid homes advertising Trump” as they canvassed Lake Placid, Florida to find residents who may qualify for federal aid.

The supervisor, Marn’i Washington, told workers both verbally and in a group chat to avoid Trump supporters’ homes, multiple government officials told the Daily Wire.

“When we got there we were told to discriminate against people. It’s almost unbelievable to think that somebody in the federal government would think that’s okay,” one of the employees told the outlet, adding that it was wrong to discriminate against Trump supporters when they were at their “most vulnerable.”

“I volunteered to help disaster victims, not discriminate against them,” said the employee. “It didn’t matter if people were black, white, Hispanic, for Trump, for Harris. Everyone deserves the same amount of help.”

The guidance came as the Biden administration was criticized over its sluggish response to Hurricane Helene in rural areas across the country. In Roan Mountain, Tennessee, for example, locals told The Daily Wire it took nearly two weeks for FEMA to show up. The town is located in Carter County, which voted 81% for Trump on Tuesday. 

The FEMA agents ordered not to help houses with Trump signs were operating in Highlands County, a deep-red area located in south central Florida that backed Trump by 70% on Tuesday. It was hit with tornadoes, torrential wind and rain, and flooding when Milton hit in October.  -Daily Wire

Following the report, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) ordered an investigation into the incident.

“The blatant weaponization of government by partisan activists in the federal bureaucracy is yet another reason why the Biden-Harris administration is in its final days,” DeSantis wrote on X. “New leadership is on the way in DC, and I’m optimistic that these partisan bureaucrats will be fired.”

FEMA, meanwhile, has “removed” Washington “from their role” within the agency.

FULL STATEMENT: “FEMA helps all survivors regardless of their political preference or affiliation and we are deeply disturbed by this employee’s actions. While we believe this is an isolated incident, we have taken measures to remove the employee from their role and are…

— Daily Wire (@realDailyWire) November 8, 2024

That wasn’t enough for some…

wait so the “extreme actions” taken to respond to this were to… continue to employ this individual?

— stevemur (@stevemur) November 8, 2024

“Remove the employee from their role”

So, they’re still employed by the government and being paid with our tax dollars, I would assume.

This person needs to go to jail.

— Mike Osborne (@M_David_Osborne) November 8, 2024

Unless “removed from role” means fired, FEMA needs to rethink their response.
I can’t wait until Elon gets a hold of this department.

— blueagave (@1blueagave) November 8, 2024

 

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

It was recently assessed that “The Clock Is Ticking For Russia To Achieve Its Maximum Goals In The Ukrainian Conflict” after the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump plans to organize a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine without the US’ participation in order to freeze the conflict. This is obviously a lot easier said than done.

Here’s what can offset this scenario by either delaying it long enough for Russia to end the conflict on its own terms or capsizing Trump’s plan completely:

1. The Europeans Fear A Direct Kinetic Escalation With Russia

France’s tough talk earlier this year about conventionally intervening in the conflict and Poland subsequently refusing to rule out its participation as well mask the Europeans’ fear of a direct kinetic escalation with Russia. Trump will have to masterfully leverage the US’ influence over them and NATO as a whole in order to coerce his country’s European partners into putting their security on the line by going through with this risky plan. It could always backfire, after all, and inadvertently spark World War III.

2. Public Opinion In The Polish Lynchpin Is Strongly Against This

It’s difficult to imagine a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine without Poland’s leading participation, but public opinion is strongly against this after a reputable survey over the summer showed that 69% of Poles are opposed to dispatching troops to that neighboring country in any capacity. As mutual Polish-Ukrainian mistrust worsens as explained here, here, and here, it’ll become a very tough sell, plus Poles fear that they’ll once again be exploited by the West while getting nothing at all in return.

3. Trump’s Prior Rhetoric About Article 5 Doesn’t Inspire Confidence

Another hurdle that’ll have to be overcome is regaining confidence in Trump due to his prior rhetoric about Article 5 after he declared in February that the US won’t protect those NATO members who haven’t spent at least 2% of their GDP on defense. He even threatened that “I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want.” Even though most now meet that target, they might still fear that he’ll attach more strings to Article 5, which they’ll rely on for defense if they participate in this mission.

4. It’s Unclear Exactly What Trump Would Do If Russia Hit NATO Troops

Trump will also have to convince NATO members that his response to Russia hitting their troops will balance the line between fulfilling Article 5’s perceived commitments while avoiding an escalation that could spiral into World War III. They also need to be sure that he’ll go through with it and not back down. Moreover, this would have to be clearly communicated to Russia too, who he’ll have to deter. There’s a lot that can go wrong anywhere along this sequence of events so its success can’t be taken for granted.

5. NATO Is Unprepared For A Prolonged Non-Nuclear Hot War With Russia

Even in the extremely unlikely scenario that neither Russia nor the US resorts to nukes in the event of direct kinetic exchanges between them, then NATO would be unprepared for waging a prolonged non-nuclear hot war with Russia. It’s losing the “race of logistics” by far, no progress was made during the last NATO Summit on the “military Schengen” for facilitating such movements eastward, and the bloc only has 5% of the air defenses needed to protect itself. NATO might therefore ultimately lose to Russia.

6. External Mediation Could Lead To A Scaled-Back Peacekeeping Mission

Hungary and India have excellent ties with Russia and the US so it’s possible that they could independently or jointly work to broker a scaled-back peacekeeping mission instead. This could result in Western troops deploying west of the Dnieper, Ukraine demilitarizing everything that it still controls in the east of heavy weapons, and Russia agreeing to freeze the Line of Contact. Such a scenario was broadly discussed here in mid-March. It’s unlikely, admittedly imperfect, but nonetheless still possible.

7. Cautious Europeans Might Wager That It’s Better To Just Cut Their Losses

All the same, the preceding six points might lead to the cautious Europeans waging that it’s better to just cut their losses and let everything play out however it will without risking the consequences that their participation in any Ukrainian peacekeeping mission could entail. It would be an unprecedented defeat for the West if it possibly lets Russia achieve a maximum victory, but growing fatigue as well as the fear of inadvertently sparking and losing World War III could result in this world-changing outcome.

8. A Cuban-Like Brinksmanship Crisis Could Break Out Before Trump’s Reinauguration

Another possibility is that anti-Russian hawks in the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”) and/or Zelensky provoke a major escalation with Russia before Trump’s reinauguration out of desperation to prevent him from “selling out Ukraine” as they might see it. If that happens, then Trump would be powerless to influence the course of events. He’d have no choice but to inherit whatever the outcome would be, whether it’s World War III or a possibly lopsided peace deal.

9. There’s A Chance That Russia Achieves Maximum Victory Before Then Too

This scenario is unlikely due to the high probability that the aforesaid point would materialize, specifically in the form of a conventional NATO intervention to at least race Russia to the Dnieper, in the event that the front lines collapse before mid-January and Russia is about to achieve maximum victory. Even so, there’s always the chance that it’s averted for whatever reason, in which case there’d be no need for the NATO peacekeeping mission that Trump reportedly envisages.

10. The West Asian Wars Worsen & Become Trump’s Immediate Priority

And finally, nobody knows whether or not the West Asian wars might worsen and thus become Trump’s immediate priority upon resuming office, with there being compelling arguments to predict that both Israel and Iran might be plotting precisely this scenario in advance of their respective interests. Briefly, Israel might want to bait the US into helping it destroy Iran once and for all, while Iran might want to inflict a devastating blow to US regional interests as revenge for Trump’s assassination of Soleimani.

Given the enormity of the task at hand, Trump might be unable to execute his reported plan for organizing a Western/NATO peacekeeping mission in Ukraine unless he announces the US’ direct involvement in this scheme, which he’s not predicted to do. If he doesn’t get what he wants, then he might resort to threatening Russia and NATO alike, but such psychological warfare might have no effect. In that case, he might just give up and move on, blaming Biden for the West’s unprecedented defeat.

The internet has become essential for humanity, with most of the population spending hours online each day. Yet, over 2.5 billion people worldwide still lack internet access.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s Bruno Venditti, illustrates the countries with the largest unconnected populations in absolute terms, according to We Are Social as of January 2024.

Asia and Africa Have the Largest Unconnected Populations

All 10 countries on the list are located in Africa or Asia.

India has the largest unconnected population, with over 684 million individuals offline, representing 47.6% of its population. China has the second-largest unconnected population, at 336 million, though its percentage of offline individuals is relatively lower, at 23.6%.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia and Uganda have the highest percentages of their populations offline, at 80.6% and 73.0%, respectively. The DRC is right behind them, with about 70% of their population offline.

And not surprisingly, in both Asia and Africa, most unconnected people are living in rural areas, where internet access is limited.

Despite having large unconnected populations, Nigeria and Indonesia are also among the top 10 countries with the highest average time spent on social media by those who are online.

If you enjoyed this graphic, make sure to check out this graphic that shows the average price of 1 gigabyte (GB) of mobile data (in USD) as of January 2024 across 52 countries.

Authored by Peter Koenig via GlobalResearch.ca,

Dear Honorable Federal Councilors,

For the past several years You, the Swiss Government, have been gradually, silently – and without any public discussion – approaching NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Today, Switzerland has already an associated member delegation with six seats in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NATO-PA). See this.

This is clearly a step towards an anti-neutral Switzerland.

And anti-democratic, because You, honorable Swiss Government, never consulted the Swiss people.

NATO was set up in 1949, in the wake of WWII, as a defense apparatus – mainly under the pretext to defend Europe against the looming dangers of the then Soviet Union, today’s Russia.

NATO was THE organization to foster the Cold War, to indoctrinate then already the people with fear from an impending invasion of the Soviet Union. Later the world found out that there was never a danger of the USSR aggressing Europe, let alone the United States.

NATO should have been dissolved at the latest when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

The Warsaw Pact, set up in 1955 as a counterpart to NATO, was resolved in the early 1990s.

NATO was not.

NATO was never a defense association – NATO is a War Machine. 

And You, dear Federal Councilors, want to further approach NATO and possibly even join them?

*  *  *

In 1991 NATO had 16 member states. Today NATO has 32 members, 30 of which are in Europe. The only transatlantic members are US and Canada.

Today, NATO is represented in some 800-plus US military bases around the world; close to 700 of them are surrounding Russia and China.

Recalling Swiss Neutrality back to almost 210 years (in 1815), this quote from an internal CIA document of 23 April 1955 [OCI No. 3377/55, copy No. 2], may be a significant reminder of the importance of Swiss neutrality:

“Switzerland’s neutrality as envisaged by the Treaty of Vienna of March 2815 was not a new conception, nor was its recognition by foreign powers a novel idea”……”And the famous Act of Perpetual Swiss Neutrality and Inviolability, signed on 20 November 1815 by Austria, Great Britain, Russia and Prussia, declared Switzerland a perpetual neutral country and contains the much quoted lines, “The neutrality and inviolability of Switzerland and its independence from all foreign influences are in the true interests of the policies of the whole of Europe.””

The Swiss Foreign Department covets Swiss Neutrality on its website as an “inviolable” asset, with reference to The Hague Conventions of October 1907 – see this.

Yet, our Minister of Defense and current President of the Swiss Confederation, is moving Switzerland ever closer into the realm of NATO, without consultation of the Swiss people. 

Joining NATO would be the death knell of Swiss neutrality.

You know this, honorable Federal Councilors.

After all, a successful People’s Initiative for Swiss Neutrality was completed and submitted to the Federal Chancellery on 11 April 2024, with almost 130,000 valid signatures (100,000 are needed). It will be submitted to a popular vote, expected in 2025 / 2026, and if accepted, Neutrality will be enshrined in the Swiss Constitution.

NATO Budget 

Dear Federal Councilors, you may know that the total 2024 NATO Budget amounts to about US$1.4 trillion – of which about two-thirds are funded by the US and one-third by Europe and Canada. It is an “annual fund” for killing and destruction – and for enriching the international military-industrial-complex (IMIC). 

In his first term in Office, President Trump called on the European NATO members to increase their military budget to at least 2% of their GDP. Some countries may have done this, others are still far from meeting this target. 

See this for current NATO spending per member country.

Taken from Al Jazeera

It is conceivable that Mr. Trump, in his new term as US President, will repeat this call on European NATO members. 

The Swiss military budget for the coming 4 years – 2025 to 2028 — is approximately CHF 30 billion, about CHF 7.5 billion per year. This is equivalent to less than 1% of the estimated Swiss GDP for 2024 (CHF 784 billion). If Switzerland would join NATO and follow Mr. Trump’s mandate, the military budget would have to be doubled to about CHF 15 billion per year.

Alternative Spending 

With a fraction of the 2024 NATO budget of US$ 1.4 trillion, world famine could be eliminated. Oxfam estimates that eradicating world hunger in all its forms would require $31.7 billion, plus US$ 4 billion for debt relief of the world’s poorest countries, a total of about US$ 35.7 billion. This is less than 3% of the G7 annual military budget, or about 2.55% of NATO’s 2024 budget.

See this.

Dear Federal Councilors, do you believe Swiss citizens would want to participate in this monstrous and murderous endeavor, called NATO? And that, to the detriment of Swiss neutrality? 

Personally, I believe most Swiss do not want to become a NATO member, and give up their legendary Neutrality. 

Therefore, dear Federal Councilors, may I urge you to reconsider, as a sovereign Swiss Confederation – not accepting pressures from outside, and abandoning this anti-Neutrality move. 

A Neutral Switzerland would be able to mediate between conflict parties and help rebuild a stable, harmonious and Peaceful World Society.

Authored by James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer via American Greatness,

President Donald Trump’s election victory on November 5 was an epochal event in American history. The American people gave Trump a mandate with almost 51% of the vote. He received over 73 million votes, more than four million more than his opponent. A new American coalition—traditional Republican voters united with lower middle class, working class, African Americans, Hispanics, and white women—provided the monumental victory. At such a significant time, it is important to consider how America arrived at such a historical moment and what must be accomplished in the years ahead.

Retrospectively, Americans must understand how they came to this place in their history. According to the exit polls, a whopping 72% of Americans understood that their country was on the wrong path. America’s political ideology, culture, and traditions were under assault by the so-called “progressive” wing of the Democrat Party. The Biden-Harris administration weakened the economy, caused inflation rates not seen since the 1970s, opened U.S. borders to some 15 million people and facilitated their relocation throughout the U.S. and so weaponized the legal system to wage lawfare against Trump, his major political and legal advisors, and against many of his supporters.

In the realm of foreign and defense policy, the debacle of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the failure to deter the war in Ukraine, the horrific attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars it unleashed. Significantly, the Biden-Harris regime failed to deter Communist China’s hyper-aggression directed against U.S. allies like the Philippines and partners like Taiwan, and most importantly against the American people through the deaths of a quarter of a million of our fellow citizens from Chinese-provided fentanyl and the intellectual capture of so many of the American elite who parrot the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) policy positions to advance the CCP’s interests.

The deeper cause of how America arrived at this point is the embrace of Marxism by the Democratic Party and thus its increasing totalitarianism and alienation from the American people. In its embrace of this ideology, the Democrat Party demonstrated that it had completely become detached from the American experience, ideology, history, and culture in its effort to transform America into a one-party state on the road to totalitarianism. The American people saw this effort to continue the “fundamental transformation” of America—as Obama identified it on the eve of the 2008 election—and rejected it.

Prospectively, there is so much that must be accomplished to repair the great costs that the Biden-Harris administration has inflicted upon the American people. As Trump has already stated in the immediate aftermath of his historic election victory, his first actions will be to “dismantle the Deep State and return power to the American People.” His stated goal is to return the government to the people, not the unelected bureaucrats that have installed themselves as a fourth branch of government. As such, the reform of government employment policies will be a major objective for his administration.

Likewise, a second Trump administration will address inflation, uncontrolled illegal immigration, economic stagnation, and the enormous national debt that risks destroying the Republic. The U.S. is in dire fiscal and economic circumstances and Trump will have to confront these issues immediately as they will be thrust upon him on January 20.

In foreign and defense policy, the situation is just as dire. U.S. conventional and nuclear forces must be strengthened. The defense industrial base must be restored to meet the threat from Communist China. The principal danger, the CCP, must be defeated by cutting it off from U.S. trade and investment—decoupling must be pursued with vigor. Furthermore, all Chinese entities should be prohibited from raising capital in U.S. markets. Its hyper-aggression must be checked by credible U.S. military power in conjunction with its allies and partners, like Japan, Korea, Australia, Thailand, India, and Taiwan.

Increasingly, Americans recognize that the CCP is illegitimate. It is the product of Soviet imperialism, and so is a colonial government ruling the Chinese people. Xi Jinping has no more legitimacy to rule the great Chinese people than we do. The second Trump administration will need to use the bully pulpit of our nation to inform the world of the CCP’s illegitimate control over the people of China.

Trump’s victory also provides the opportunity to save more than America. It provides the chance to defend Western civilization, upon which America’s foundation, history, politics, culture, and intellectual life are anchored. The Progressive Left’s (that is, Communists’) attack against America’s political ideology, history, and culture is part of a broader effort to destroy Western civilization. Initially, the left undermined it through the “ideas industry,” universities, K-12 education, think tanks, media, social media, television, and film. Then they labored hammer and tongs to overthrow it. Trump has the opportunity to repair the tremendous damage that the left has done carefully and deliberately to Western civilization. Working with European, British, Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian allies and other peoples around the world who value the contributions of Western civilization, Trump can begin to fix the damage.

Under Trump, the direction of the nation is clear—as it is for any ship embarking on a new journey. The ship of America must be sounded, the damage repaired, and a renewed course, like the ones originally charted by the celestial constellations that guided Washington, Jackson, Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Reagan, must be set. If we stay true to our constitutional principles, America will once again have a fair wind and a following sea as it returns to its political ideology, principles, and traditions. That course opens the door to the best years in America’s history.

The American people understood their plight and were searching for decades for an effective leader, only to be disappointed and frustrated with Republican Party candidates, which led to a profound alienation of the base from the Party establishment. Trump had brilliant careers in real estate and television before he entered politics. But he chose to throw his hat into the ring because he identified with what was happening to the American people.

In turn, the American people saw clearly that Trump was the vessel that would enact their course change. His tremendous courage, acumen, charisma, indefatigable physical stamina, thick skin, and political instincts are without parallel in modern American history. As such, the American people have unquestionably placed their trust in him to empower the saving of America. Trump has accepted that sacred challenge. He has excelled and will do so again in this colossal task because it is evident to Americans that he loves America, the American people, and is a fighter. The American people gave Trump his victory because they saw that Trump’s triumph is America’s.